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The two previous blogs in this series were:

Part I HERE.

All page references unless otherwise stated are to my essay, HERE.

Since the financial crisis, there has been a great deal of media and Westminster discussion about why so few people predicted it and what the problems are with economics and financial theory.

Absent from most of this discussion is the history of the subject and its intellectual origins. Economics is clearly a vital area of prediction for people in politics. I therefore will explore some intellectual history to provide context for contemporary discussions about ‘what is wrong with economics and what should be done about it’.

It has often been argued that the ‘complexity’ of human behaviour renders precise mathematical treatment of economics impossible, or that the undoubted errors of modern economics in applying the tools of mathematical physics are evidence of the irredeemable hopelessness of the goal.

For example, Kant wrote in Critique of Judgement:

‘For it is quite certain that in terms of merely mechanical principles of nature we cannot even adequately become familiar with, much less explain, organized beings and how they are internally possible. So certain is this that we may boldly state that it is absurd for human beings even to attempt it, or to hope that perhaps some day another Newton might arise who would explain to us, in terms of natural laws unordered by any intention, how even a mere blade of grass is produced. Rather, we must absolutely deny that human beings have such insight.’

In the middle of the 20th Century, one of the great minds of the century turned to this question. John Von Neumann was one of the leading mathematicians of the 20th Century. He was also a major contributor to the mathematisation of quantum mechanics, created the field of ‘quantum logic’ (1936), worked as a consultant to the Manhattan Project and other wartime technological projects, and was one of the two most important creators of modern computer science and artificial intelligence (with Turing) which he developed partly for immediate problems he was working on (e.g. the hydrogen bomb and ICBMs) and partly to probe the general field of understanding complex nonlinear systems.  In an Endnote of my essay I discuss some of these things.

Von Neumann was regarded as an extraordinary phenomenon even by  the cleverest people in the world. The Nobel-winning physicist and mathematician Wigner said of von Neumann:

‘I have known a great many intelligent people in my life. I knew Planck, von Laue and Heisenberg. Paul Dirac was my brother in law; Leo Szilard and Edward Teller have been among my closest friends; and Albert Einstein was a good friend, too. But none of them had a mind as quick and acute as Jansci von Neumann. I have often remarked this in the presence of those men and no one ever disputed me… Perhaps the consciousness of animals is more shadowy than ours and perhaps their perceptions are always dreamlike. On the opposite side, whenever I talked with the sharpest intellect whom I have known – with von Neumann – I always had the impression that only he was fully awake, that I was halfway in a dream.’

Von Neumann also had a big impact on economics. During breaks from pressing wartime business, he wrote ‘Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour’ (TGEB) with Morgenstern. This practically created the field of ‘game theory’ which one sees so many references to now. TGEB was one of the most influential books ever written on economics. (The movie The Beautiful Mind gave a false impression of Nash’s contribution.) In the Introduction, his explanation of some foundational issues concerning economics, mathematics, and prediction is clearer for non-specialists than any other thing I have seen on the subject and cuts through a vast amount of contemporary discussion which fogs the issues.

This documentary on von Neumann is also interesting:

There are some snippets from pre-20th Century figures explaining concepts in terms recognisable through the prism of Game Theory. For example, Ampère wrote ‘Considerations sur la théorie mathématique du jeu’ in 1802 and credited Buffon’s 1777 essay on ‘moral arithmetic’ (Buffon figured out many elements that Darwin would later harmonise in his theory of evolution). Cournot discussed what would later be described as a specific example of a ‘Nash equilibrium’ viz duopoly in 1838.  The French mathematician Emile Borel also made contributions to early ideas.

However, Game Theory really was born with von Neumann. In December 1926, he presented the paper ‘Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftsspiele’ (On the Theory of Parlour Games, published in 1928, translated version here) while working on the Hilbert Programme [cf. Endnote on Computing] and quantum mechanics. The connection between the Hilbert Programme and the intellectual origins of Game Theory can perhaps first be traced in a 1912 lecture by one of the world’s leading mathematicians and founders of modern set theory, Zermelo, titled ‘On the Application of Set Theory to Chess’ which stated of its purpose:

‘… it is not dealing with the practical method for games, but rather is simply giving an answer to the following question: can the value of a particular feasible position in a game for one of the players be mathematically and objectively decided, or can it at least be defined without resorting to more subjective psychological concepts?’

He presented a theorem that chess is strictly determined: that is, either (i) white can force a win, or (ii) black can force a win, or (iii) both sides can force at least a draw. Which of these is the actual solution to chess remains unknown. (Cf. ‘Zermelo and the Early History of Game Theory’, by Schwalbe & Walker (1997), which argues that modern scholarship is full of errors about this paper. According to Leonard (2006), Zermelo’s paper was part of a general interest in the game of chess among intellectuals in the first third of the 20th century. Lasker (world chess champion 1897–1921) knew Zermelo and both were taught by Hilbert.)

Von Neumman later wrote:

‘[I]f the theory of Chess were really fully known there would be nothing left to play.  The theory would show which of the three possibilities … actually holds, and accordingly the play would be decided before it starts…  But our proof, which guarantees the validity of one (and only one) of these three alternatives, gives no practically usable method to determine the true one. This relative, human difficulty necessitates the use of those incomplete, heuristic methods of playing, which constitute ‘good’ Chess; and without it there would be no element of ‘struggle’ and ‘surprise’ in that game.’ (p.125)

Elsewhere, he said:

‘Chess is not a game. Chess is a well-defined computation. You may not be able to work out the answers, but in theory there must be a solution, a right procedure in any position. Now, real games are not like that at all. Real life is not like that. Real life consists of bluffing, of little tactics of deception, of asking yourself what is the other man going to think I mean to do. And that is what games are about in my theory.’

Von Neumman’s 1928 paper proved that there is a rational solution to every two-person zero-sum game. That is, in a rigorously defined game with precise payoffs, there is a mathematically rational strategy for both sides – an outcome which both parties cannot hope to improve upon. This introduced the concept of the minimax: choose a strategy that minimises the possible maximum loss.

Zero-sum games are those where the payoffs ‘sum’ to zero. For example, chess or Go are zero-sum games because the gain (+1) and the loss (-1) sum to zero; one person’s win is another’s loss. The famous Prisoners’ Dilemma is a non-zero-sum game because the payoffs do not sum to zero: it is possible for both players to make gains. In some games the payoffs to the players are symmetrical (e.g. Prisoners’ Dilemma); in others, the payoffs are asymmetrical (e.g. the Dictator or Ultimatum games). Sometimes the strategies can be completely stated without the need for probabilities (‘pure’ strategies); sometimes, probabilities have to be assigned for particular actions (‘mixed’ strategies).

While the optimal minimax strategy might be a ‘pure’ strategy, von Neumann showed it would often have to be a ‘mixed strategy’ and this means a spontaneous return of probability, even if the game itself does not involve probability.

‘Although … chance was eliminated from the games of strategy under consideration (by introducing expected values and eliminating ‘draws’), it has now made a spontaneous reappearance. Even if the rules of the game do not contain any elements of ‘hazard’ … in specifying the rules of behaviour for the players it becomes imperative to reconsider the element of ‘hazard’. The dependence on chance (the ‘statistical’ element) is such an intrinsic part of the game itself (if not of the world) that there is no need to introduce it artificially by way of the rules of the game itself: even if the formal rules contain no trace of it, it still will assert itself.’

In 1932, he gave a lecture titled ‘On Certain Equations of Economics and A Generalization of Brouwer’s Fixed-Point Theorem’. It was published in German in 1938 but not in English until 1945 when it was published as ‘A Model of General Economic Equilibrium’. This paper developed what is sometimes called von Neumann’s Expanding Economic Model and has been described as the most influential article in mathematical economics. It introduced the use of ‘fixed-point theorems’. (Brouwer’s ‘fixed point theorem’ in topology proved that, in crude terms, if you lay a map of the US on the ground anywhere in the US, one point on the map will lie precisely over the point it represents on the ground beneath.)

‘The mathematical proof is possible only by means of a generalisation of Brouwer’s Fix-Point Theorem, i.e. by the use of very fundamental topological facts… The connection with topology may be very surprising at first, but the author thinks that it is natural in problems of this kind. The immediate reason for this is the occurrence of a certain ‘minimum-maximum’ problem… It is closely related to another problem occurring in the theory of games.’

Von Neumann’s application of this topological proof to economics was very influential in post-war mathematical economics and in particular was used by Arrow and Debreu in their seminal 1954 paper on general equilibrium, perhaps the central paper in modern traditional economics.

In the late 1930’s, von Neumann, based at the IAS in Princeton to which Gödel and Einstein also fled to escape the Nazis, met up with the economist Oskar Morgenstern who was deeply dissatisfied with the state of economics. In 1940, von Neumann began his collaboration on games with Morgenstern, while working on war business including the Manhattan Project and computers, that became The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (TGEB). By December 1942, he had finished his work on this though it was not published until 1944.

In the Introduction of TGEB, von Neumann explained the real problems in applying mathematics to economics and why Kant was wrong.

‘It is not that there exists any fundamental reason why mathematics should not be used in economics.  The arguments often heard that because of the human element, of the psychological factors etc., or because there is – allegedly – no measurement of important factors, mathematics will find no application, can all be dismissed as utterly mistaken.  Almost all these objections have been made, or might have been made, many centuries ago in fields where mathematics is now the chief instrument of analysis [e.g. physics in the 16th Century or chemistry and biology in the 18th]…

‘As to the lack of measurement of the most important factors, the example of the theory of heat is most instructive; before the development of the mathematical theory the possibilities of quantitative measurements were less favorable there than they are now in economics.  The precise measurements of the quantity and quality of heat (energy and temperature) were the outcome and not the antecedents of the mathematical theory…

‘The reason why mathematics has not been more successful in economics must be found elsewhere… To begin with, the economic problems were not formulated clearly and are often stated in such vague terms as to make mathematical treatment a priori appear hopeless because it is quite uncertain what the problems really are. There is no point using exact methods where there is no clarity in the concepts and issues to which they are applied. [Emphasis added] Consequently the initial task is to clarify the knowledge of the matter by further careful descriptive work. But even in those parts of economics where the descriptive problem has been handled more satisfactorily, mathematical tools have seldom been used appropriately. They were either inadequately handled … or they led to mere translations from a literary form of expression into symbols…

‘Next, the empirical background of economic science is definitely inadequate. Our knowledge of the relevant facts of economics is incomparably smaller than that commanded in physics at the time when mathematization of that subject was achieved.  Indeed, the decisive break which came in physics in the seventeenth century … was possible only because of previous developments in astronomy. It was backed by several millennia of systematic, scientific, astronomical observation, culminating in an observer of unparalleled calibre, Tycho de Brahe. Nothing of this sort has occurred in economics. It would have been absurd in physics to expect Kepler and Newton without Tycho – and there is no reason to hope for an easier development in economics…

‘Very frequently the proofs [in economics] are lacking because a mathematical treatment has been attempted in fields which are so vast and so complicated that for a long time to come – until much more empirical knowledge is acquired – there is hardly any reason at all to expect progress more mathematico. The fact that these fields have been attacked in this way … indicates how much the attendant difficulties are being underestimated. They are enormous and we are now in no way equipped for them.

‘[We will need] changes in mathematical technique – in fact, in mathematics itself…  It must not be forgotten that these changes may be very considerable. The decisive phase of the application of mathematics to physics – Newton’s creation of a rational discipline of mechanics – brought about, and can hardly be separated from, the discovery of the infinitesimal calculus…

‘The importance of the social phenomena, the wealth and multiplicity of their manifestations, and the complexity of their structure, are at least equal to those in physics.  It is therefore to be expected – or feared – that mathematical discoveries of a stature comparable to that of calculus will be needed in order to produce decisive success in this field… A fortiori, it is unlikely that a mere repetition of the tricks which served us so well in physics will do for the social phenomena too.  The probability is very slim indeed, since … we encounter in our discussions some mathematical problems which are quite different from those which occur in physical science.’

Von Neumann therefore exhorted economists to humility and the task of ‘careful, patient description’, a ‘task of vast proportions’. He stressed that economics could not attack the ‘big’ questions – much more modesty is needed to establish an exact theory for very simple problems, and build on those foundations.

‘The everyday work of the research physicist is … concerned with special problems which are “mature”… Unifications of fields which were formerly divided and far apart may alternate with this type of work. However, such fortunate occurrences are rare and happen only after each field has been thoroughly explored. Considering the fact that economics is much more difficult, much less understood, and undoubtedly in a much earlier stage of its evolution as a science than physics, one should clearly not expect more than a development of the above type in economics either…

‘The great progress in every science came when, in the study of problems which were modest as compared with ultimate aims, methods were developed which could be extended further and further. The free fall is a very trivial physical example, but it was the study of this exceedingly simple fact and its comparison with astronomical material which brought forth mechanics. It seems to us that the same standard of modesty should be applied in economics… The sound procedure is to obtain first utmost precision and mastery in a limited field, and then to proceed to another, somewhat wider one, and so on.’

Von Neumann therefore aims in TGEB at ‘the behavior of the individual and the simplest forms of exchange’ with the hope that this can be extended to more complex situations.

‘Economists frequently point to much larger, more ‘burning’ questions…  The experience of … physics indicates that this impatience merely delays progress, including that of the treatment of the ‘burning’ questions. There is no reason to assume the existence of shortcuts…

‘It is a well-known phenomenon in many branches of the exact and physical sciences that very great numbers are often easier to handle than those of medium size. An almost exact theory of a gas, containing about 1025 freely moving particles, is incomparably easier than that of the solar system, made up of 9 major bodies… This is … due to the excellent possibility of applying the laws of statistics and probabilities in the first case.

‘This analogy, however, is far from perfect for our problem. The theory of mechanics for 2,3,4,… bodies is well known, and in its general theoretical …. form is the foundation of the statistical theory for great numbers. For the social exchange economy – i.e. for the equivalent ‘games of strategy’ – the theory of 2,3,4… participants was heretofore lacking. It is this need that … our subsequent investigations will endeavor to satisfy. In other words, only after the theory for moderate numbers of participants has been satisfactorily developed will it be possible to decide whether extremely great numbers of participants simplify the situation.’

[This last bit has changed slightly as I forgot to include a few things.]

While some of von Neumann’s ideas were extremely influential on economics, his general warning here about the right approach to the use of mathematics was not widely heeded.

Most economists initially ignored von Neumann’s ideas.  Martin Shubik, a Princeton mathematician, recounted the scene he found:

‘The contrast of attitudes between the economics department and mathematics department was stamped on my mind… The former projected an atmosphere of dull-business-as-usual conservatism… The latter was electric with ideas… When von Neumann gave his seminar on his growth model, with a few exceptions, the serried ranks of Princeton economists could scarce forebear to yawn.’

However, a small but influential number, including mathematicians at the RAND Corporation (the first recognisable modern ‘think tank’) led by John Williams, applied it to nuclear strategy as well as economics. For example, Albert Wohlstetter published his Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases (RAND, R-266, sometimes referred to as The Basing Study) in 1954. Williams persuaded the RAND Board and the infamous SAC General Curtis LeMay to develop a social science division at RAND that could include economists and psychologists to explore the practical potential of Game Theory further. He also hired von Neumann as a consultant; when the latter said he was too busy, Williams told him he only wanted the time it took von Neumann to shave in the morning. (Kubrick’s Dr Strangelove satirised RAND’s use of game theory.)

In the 1990’s, the movie A Beautiful Mind brought John Nash into pop culture, giving the misleading impression that he was the principle developer of Game Theory. Nash’s fame rests principally on work he did in 1950-1 that became known as ‘the Nash Equilibrium’. In Non-Cooperative Games (1950), he wrote:

‘[TGEB] contains a theory of n-person games of a type which we would call cooperative. This theory is based on an analysis of the interrelationships of the various coalitions which can be formed by the players of the game. Our theory, in contradistinction, is based on the absence of coalitions in that it is assumed each participant acts independently, without collaboration or communication with any of the others… [I have proved] that a finite non-cooperative game always has at least one equilibrium point.’

Von Neumann remarked of Nash’s results, ‘That’s trivial you know. It’s just a fixed point theorem.’ Nash himself said that von Neumann was a ‘European gentleman’ but was not impressed by his results.

In 1949-50, Merrill Flood, another RAND researcher, began experimenting with staff at RAND (and his own children) playing various games. Nash’s results prompted Flood to create what became known as the ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’ game, the most famous and studied game in Game Theory. It was initially known as ‘a non-cooperative pair’ and the name ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’ was given it by Tucker later in 1950 when he had to think of a way of explaining the concept to his psychology class at Stanford and hit on an anecdote putting the payoff matrix in the form of two prisoners in separate cells considering the pros and cons of ratting on each other.

The game was discussed and played at RAND without publishing. Flood wrote up the results in 1952 as an internal RAND memo accompanied by the real-time comments of the players. In 1958, Flood published the results formally (Some Experimental Games). Flood concluded that ‘there was no tendency to seek as the final solution … the Nash equilibrium point.’ Prisoners’ Dilemma has been called ‘the E. coli of social psychology’ by Axelrod, so popular has it become in so many different fields. Many studies of Iterated Prisoners’ Dilemma games have shown that generally neither human nor evolved genetic algorithm players converge on the Nash equilibrium but choose to cooperate far more than Nash’s theory predicts.

Section 7 of my essay discusses some recent breakthroughs, particularly the paper by Press & Dyson. This is also a good example of how mathematicians can invade fields. Dyson’s professional fields are maths and physics. He was persuaded to look at the Prisoners’ Dilemma. He very quickly saw that there was a previously unseen class of strategies that has opened up a whole new field for exploration. This article HERE is a good summary of recent developments.

Von Neumann’s brief forays into economics were very much a minor sideline for him but there is no doubt of his influence. Despite von Neumann’s reservations about neoclassical economics, Paul Samuelson admitted that, ‘He darted briefly into our domain, and it has never been the same since.’

In 1987, the Santa Fe Institute, founded by Gell Mann and others, organised a ten day meeting to discuss economics. On one side, they invited leading economists such as Kenneth Arrow and Larry Summers; on the other side, they invited physicists, biologists, and computer scientists, such as Nobel-winning Philip Anderson and John Holland (inventor of genetic algorithms). When the economists explained their assumptions, Phil Anderson said to them, ‘You guys really believe that?

One physicist later described the meeting as like visiting Cuba – the cars are all from the 1950’s so on one hand you admire them for keeping them going, but on the other hand they are old technology; similarly the economists were ingeniously using 19th Century maths and physics on very out-of-date models. The physicists were shocked at how the economists were content with simplifying assumptions that were obviously contradicted by reality, and they were surprised at the way the economists seemed unconcerned about how poor their predictions were.

Twenty-seven years later, this problem is more acute. Some economists are listening to the physicists about fundamental problems with the field. Some are angrily rejecting the physicists’ incursions into their field.

Von Neumann explained the scientifically accurate approach to economics and mathematics. [Inserted later. I mean – the first part of his comments above that discusses maths, prediction, models, and economics and physics. As far as I know, nobody seriously disputes these comments – i.e. that Kant and the general argument that ‘maths cannot make inroads into economics’ are wrong. The later comments about building up economic theories from theories of 2, 3, 4 agents etc is a separate topic. See comments.] In other blogs in this series I will explore some of the history of economic thinking as part of a description of the problem for politicians and other decision-makers who need to make predictions.

Please leave corrections and comments below.

8 thoughts on “Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics III – von Neumann and economics as a science

  1. Hi Dom

    Only having read through twice, I don’t expect that this comment reflects much understanding. But this is where my problem lies:

    “Von Neumann therefore exhorted economists to humility and the task of ‘careful, patient description’, a ‘task of vast proportions’. He stressed that economics could not attack the ‘big’ questions – much more modesty is needed to establish an exact theory for very simple problems, and build on those foundations.”

    It is this last sentence that I would dispute, which is also echoed in the last quote you provide from VN:

    “In other words, only after the theory for moderate numbers of participants has been satisfactorily developed will it be possible to decide whether extremely great numbers of participants simplify the situation.’”

    Here is what I think. The crisis to which you allude in your very first paragraphs is, in my view, a macro economic crisis. It is not like, say, a computer malfunction, or the destruction of the Death Star where one small fault can chaotically snowball into an apocalypse. Instead, it is the result of certain massive, and relatively knowable, aggregates failing to rise at the right pace. In fact, for all the millions of words written about the Financial Crisis, all the opportunistic attempts by both Left and Right to use it for their rhetorical ends, it might be described in fairly mundane terms. (for a straightforward statement of this view, see

    A crude analogy. Consider a boating lake, full of bobbing boats of all sizes. Suddenly they start crashing around into each other, some sinking, some scraping the bottom, some capsizing. No expert with no conceivable computer could predict their chaotic movements, even with a perfect “theory of 2,3,4 participants” – as you clearly illustrate with your earlier discussion of chess games. But it turns out that this is happening because, suddenly, a third of the water was drained from the lake. While foreknowledge of this draining might not give anyone an ability to determine what would happen exactly to each boat, the knowledge that something catastrophic would happen, should the water be drained in that way, requires little theory. Above all, it doesn’t require any theory needing to be built up from the patient study of objects of 2,3 4 or so in complexity.

    In other words, while macro doesn’t require the accurate summation of lots of micro.

    Macro is more like the theory of gas that you allude to. It was macro that failed. It was an avoidable failure, in my view but not in the view of the mainstream. But you and VN dispute this; you seem to feel that this is yet to be established. I think it is probably the case that aggregate relationships in economics *are* quite well established. For example, the relationship between hours worked, the total envelope of labour income, the behaviour of wages, is all fairly simple.

    But many of the mechanisms that lead to causal relations between those aggregates are not so well known or are disputed – or are crucially dependent on the views of participants. For example a massive temporary money injection can achieve little; a smaller injection believed to be permanent may have enormous effects. Multiple equilibria abound.

    None of this is to dispute the quite valid incredulity displayed by the physicists in 1987 that you end with. I suspect that there is a fair amount of economics out there trying to be like physics and making an a** of itself. My folksy examples and “market monetarist” leanings suggest that I’d agree with you that “model it or it isn’t real” is not the way forward for economists trying to explain the crisis. But this also means that VN’s demand that we build up from theories of 2,3, and 4 to theories of the aggregate is just the wrong way to go.

    • In this sentence ‘In other words, while macro doesn’t require the accurate summation of lots of micro’ – is the ‘while’ redundant or did something get chopped off?

      Not understanding much about economics I doubt I grasp your point properly but…

      1. I don’t think you are arguing with the first half of VN’s comments. I.e. Kant was wrong, some standard arguments against the use of maths in economics and other social sciences misunderstand the role of maths in physics and other physical sciences. As far as I know, nobody thinks VN is wrong about this and I’m assuming you aren’t arguing with these thoughts.

      2. Your argument is re the second half – i.e. economics needs to be built up from accurate models of very simple exchanges etc.

      3. But re your comments about macro… Isn’t the fundamental problem with macro that it is based on a whole set of assumptions around ‘equilibrium’ that we KNOW are false. Many of these VN and others pointed out back in the 1940s/50s when Samuelson, Arrow et al were doing their thing. The economy – and financial markets! – do not have a tendency to equilibrium. Indeed their dynamics lead to spontaneous dis-equilibrium – i.e. bubbles and crashes. So I see your point about the lake, but macro seems to be a theory that assumes weird things like, if you suck a third of the water out the level will fall perfectly uniformly across the whole lake!? If you have a macro theory like that, then you will assume all the boats will just uniformly sink together, etc.

      4. You write, ‘aggregate relationships in economics *are* quite well established. For example [XYZ] is all fairly simple.’ But if they were ‘well established’ and ‘all fairly simple’, and like a statistical theory of gas (which does work), should we not be able to make good predictions about them?

      5. If I understand right, some of the stuff physicists are doing now with ‘agent-based models’ and what not seems more attuned to what von Neumann was suggesting in the 1940s, particularly given his work on simulations in the first computers he was building in Princeton etc.

      • Thanks Dom

        3. I am not the authority to judge this, but I don’t think these sorts of assumptions about uniformity are intrinsic to macro at all. Certainly, the possibility of discontinuities etc has been acknowledged for a while, and the “uniform boat drop” is probably not much of an issue; economics modellers will know that some sectors are more geared to the cycle, for example, and be able to adjust accordingly. The particular case of finance isn’t settled, I am sure, and there are those who see it driving everything (eg Martin Wolf?) and those who see it as more of a consequence of the macro than a driver, or a mirror through which it is all seen. But I do know there has been significant work on this area (e.g. Bernanke and Gertler, I think?).

        On the equilibrium point, again I have to disavow any expertise, but I think the fluid way macro is done merely suggests that the system is always moving towards the equilibrium, not necessarily always at it. So, say, a massive rise in government spending ought to raise equilibrium real interest rates – this sets in motion various economic impulses – but the exact point of that equilibrium isn’t necessarily reached (because of randomness, other factors moving, etc). Enough to know that pulling that lever produces that tendency

        4. I think general principles of weather may be known but longer term weather forecasts still difficult, because there are so many intermeshing factors. Predictability of outcomes is not a good test – a good sense of what the relationship between various variables may end up being is maybe the best we can expect.

        Gotta dash, thanks for this

  2. Too many important ideas here to comment adequately on them all, but some thoughts.

    There is not one set of mathematical approaches to economics but many.

    I’ll leave to other to comment the statistical and mathematical approaches to macroeconomics, which is the area most commonly criticised for poor prediction, the area in which the public and the policy world are most interested in what economics can teach, and the area in which there is least consensus among economists about the right approaches.

    In microeconomics, Dom points out that von Neumann provided an important building block in the development of the Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie model of general equilibrium. This model shows us that the circumstances in which Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’ works perfectly are very special. Nevertheless, the mass of conventional microeconomic theory of which Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie is the idealised core is moderately successful in understanding how many real-world markets work. If you want to think about how the growth of the Chinese economy might affect income distribution in the UK, or how the London congestion charge might affect travel patterns, there’s a toolbox that works moderately well, and is (at least among professional economists) reasonably uncontroversial in broad terms.

    An approach whose fundamentals are based on an idealised view of competition, with perfect information and foresight, seems to work moderately well in understanding a world in which competition is not perfect, and there is lots of imperfect information and uncertainty. Specifically, it works reasonably well in describing markets and situtation in which we can largely ignore von Neumann’s concern about ‘strategic’ thinking: we don’t “worry about what the other man is going to do”. We don’t, in other words, need game theory in which the central theme is precisely about worrying what the other “man” is going to do. Agents in the standard microeconomic model are small relative to the market.

    This changes completely when we deal with issues where agents have to worry about how their actions interact with the actions of other agents – the central concern of game theory. Solution of even the simplest games, for example getting to the Nash equilibrium in a two-agent Cournot model, require assumptions of sophisticated rational thought by the agents. Only slightly more complex games require highly implausible levels of strategic thinking, and there’s now a large body of experimental evidence that human subjects don’t behave ‘rationally’ in the game-theoretic sense.

    von Neumann was surely right that the right starting point was the application of game theoretic thinking to small models. And there are impressive achievements. The prisoners’ dilemma model is a powerful aid to understanding a huge range of important social and economic problems – over-exploitation of common resources, congestion, and pollution; and the repeated prisoners’ dilemma takes us into other interesting areas of understanding. Nash equilibrium enabled a proper understanding of the Cournot model and from that has flowed a rich and diverse set of models of oligopolistic markets, which, for example, provide a robust and practical understanding of cartel behaviour. One important set of developments not mentioned by Dom is simple dynamic games, notably the work of Thomas Schelling. Here we get insights into truly strategic behaviour: first-mover advantage, “tying oneself to the mast”, “burning the bridges”, with serious applications which include the strategy of nuclear deterrence.

    Small-model game theory seems therefore to have been very successful. But I share the scepticism of freethinkingeconomist about von Neumann’s programme of building a more scientific economics up from the base of small-model game theory.

    A couple of concluding questions about the Santa Fe physicists. What was it about the economists’ assumptions that they found so incredible. Presumably rational behaviour? But, as I have sugggested above, the rational behaviour assumption works not badly in the standard microeconomic models, perhaps analogously to the frictionless assumptions used in much standard mechanics. Rationality in game theory models is a different issue – it does indeed seem to be deeply problematic beyond the very simplest models.

    And what’s wrong with the economists’ mathematical tools? Yes, they are rooted in 19th century analysis (the tools of Newtonian physics), overlaid with some of the tools that emerged from 20th century linear and non-linear programming (Farkas lemma and separating hyperplanes), plus of course game theory in its various branches. But the Cuban cars analogy suggests that the physicists thought that there are bodies of more recent mathematics that would be a better toolbox than economists currently have. I’m sceptical about this – having seem too many ill-considered attempts to apply techniques from other disciplines to economics, without enough understanding of what the economics questions were to which answers were sought. (If I were asked which box of tools I’d be interested in importing into economics, it would be the tools of computer gaming, not those of 21st century physics.)

    • Probably what they mean is that the mathematical techniques used in physics have moved on a lot over the last 100 years but that does not seem to have happened to a similar extent in economics, not necessarily that the economists should be using the exact same tools as the physicists.

  3. Just a quick note to say thanks for your blog posts, Dominic. I am a non-economist who has worked in Westminster, at a think tank, and recognise many of the frustrations you identify with poor policymaking, both in the use of evidence and in over-confidence in models (my specialism is energy and environment policy).

    I am making my way through Beinhocker’s Origin of Wealth at the moment and it is expressing clearly many of the ideas of complexity and non-linearity. They are extremely powerful approaches. As one who spends time thinking about how you can improve environmental systems, there are a lot of resonances.

    Keep up the good work.

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text:
Episode 2: Books, Abuses, and VBS

It’s our second episode and we still don’t have a name for our podcast. But you can hear us argue about it! We talk about some of the books our kids are reading this summer, about the abuse of language. We also talk about this article and whether VBS is healthy for kids. Speaking of kids, watch out for the British swearing!


text:
Preview Mode Links will not work in preview mode

Mar 29, 2007

 Our Chieftain of Chill Queerninja has been called away at the last minute on a shamanic emergency, but fear not! The Hans Christian Andersen of Cannabis has stepped into the breach with an early release of this eleventh episode, which celebrates the success of our new series Psychonautica with a crazy trip report from Lefty himself, washed down with a stack of great listener submissions. Send you stories or comments in to, leave a comment or a skype, and if you're coming to Amsterdam, start thinking about your stories now!

Playlist: Steve Miller - Fly Like an Eagle; Pink Floyd - Brain Damage; Pink Floyd - Eclipse; Yes - Wondrous Stories; Jimi Hendrix - Are You Experienced; Yes - Tempus Fugit; The Supervillains - Resin; Golgo Bordello - Dogs were Barking; The Seeds - Mr. Farmer; The Supervillains - Mary Jane & Jagermeister ; The Stranglers - Golden Brown; The Kinks - Ape-Man; Uriah Heep - Traveler in Time; Pink Floyd - Echoes (partial); Dengue Fever - One Thousand Tears of a Tarantula; Steve Miller Band - Winter Time; Blue Oyster Cult - O.D.'d on Life

thirteen and a half years ago

thirteen and a half years ago

how about doing a weekly show, i love the show and i always look forward to hearing new material


text:
AMD Dota2 Premier League

From Dota 2 Wiki
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AMD Dota2 Premier League
Cosmetic icon AMD Premier League Season 1.png
Rarity: Common

AMD, in partnership with DotaTalk, proudly brings you the AMD Premier League. The tournament features SEA's finest teams as they compete for a total prize pool of $5,000. Two months of intense action will be commentated by GoDz, LD, Luminous and Blaze on BeyondthesummitTV.

Ticket for the AMD Premier League Season 1.


text:
/ FS19 Mods | LS19 Mods | Farming Mods » Maps FS 19 » Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19

Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19

21 April 2020 admin 466 1
Tested version:
Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19

Category - Maps FS 19
Version - v1.5.x
Credits: - ben686, igor29381, reallogger
+1 1

Description about «Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19»:

Download mod Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19 | Farming Simulator 19 game.

Rassvet Map - Meet the card State Farm "Dawn"! The map began its existence in far FS13, and now we can contemplate it in FS19. A lot of work has been done on customizing the look of nature and the functionality of the new game. A major alteration was the main base and cow farm. And throughout the map there are a lot of differences from the former "Dawn".

Feautres Map Rassvet Map:
1. The entire territory of the map is divided into areas that need to be purchased to cultivate crops or even mow the grass. 2. There are standard production - raising livestock (cows, sheep, pigs and chickens), BHA, sawmill.
3. Additionally, a sand pit was added, you can load sand from it with loaders and use it in your needs. Or just sell. Of course, you first need to buy a territory with a quarry.
4. The main feature of the map State Farm House "Dawn", all the pens for livestock are static, i.e. they do not need to buy. Except for the stables.
5. There are various points of sale in order to diversify the gameplay.
6. Many people will not be comfortable with ZAV, a grain storage facility, it is not a travel card. But according to how much the map was made with an emphasis on the MP, the ZAV suits us completely.
7. Well, the standard card size is 2048: 2048 with large fields. It may be difficult to play lonely, but for MP the most "juice".

Changes in v2.8:
- The base is slightly redone, as well as parking for equipment;
- The central street in front of the base has been redone. Various objects added;
- Redesigned grain storage. The grain unloading point has been moved; now it is a passage;
- The building where fertilizer and feed production is located is increased by 30%, the unloading points are also increased;
- The starting set of equipment has been slightly replaced;
- Redone storage for lime;
- Now, at the start, the player owns the field number 6. Also, the field itself is slightly modified;
- Reworked some country roads;
- Redesigned mask for seasons mod;
- Fixed various bugs;
- Made a little optimization;
- Redesigned field number 8, now it is rectangular and divided into three small fields that can be combined into one;
- Completely redone the road to field number 8;
- Changed the cost of some sites;
- Redid the barn.

Tested on game version 1.5.x
Last edited by: admin - 21-04-2020, 17:27
Reason: Mod Updated to v2.8
Screenshots Mod
Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19 Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19 Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19 Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19 Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19 Rassvet Map v2.8 by ben686 for FS19

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«Mods for Farming Simulator 19» - is one of the most important components of a simulator. Of course, there are a lot of very different vehicles from different manufacturers in the game, but not always you will be able to find exactly what you need (especially with our time-tested domestic machinery).
Therefore, we are looking for, checking, correcting and adding to the site the most interesting and popular mods for FS 19. Install the game, add any mods and enjoy farming!
In order for you to experience only positive impressions of the game, we select only the highest quality and most interesting mods, and also check their performance.
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  1. admin
    26 February 2020 19:44 | 66 | 4 324
    + 0 -

    Changes in v2.9.7.1 for RASSVET Map:
    - More purchase points added;
    - Improved sawmill, it is possible to produce pallets;
    - Potato sink;
    - Pallet factory;
    - Improved dairy products, the preparation of cheese and yogurt;
    - A bakery is added to baking bread;
    - The mill is added, you can grind the grain.


text:
Get Buckets: A challenging puzzle game and memory test

Get Buckets is a puzzle game to test your wits. Can you get buckets?Study the location of each wall and portal. Where will be ball exit?The ball bounces off walls. When the ball hits a portal it will transition to the other portal and keep moving in the same direction.How long is your streak? Use power-ups to improve!Check your stats and share them with friends via twitter.Follow us on Twitter or Instagram for news @getbucketsapp.Contact @_macfam on Twitter with any questions.
Price USD0.99
License Purchase
File Size 4.44 MB
Version 1.2
Operating System iOS
System Requirements Compatible with iPhone 4. iTunes account required.


text:
Killyleagh Burglary Condemned By Billy Walker

Detectives are appealing for witnesses following a report of an aggravated burglary of a house on Irish Street in Killyleagh last night, Wednesday 28 February.

It was reported that at around 10.30pm, four masked males entered a house in the area and assaulted two male occupants with sticks. A man aged in his 20’s sustained a suspected broken arm and bruising to his leg. Another man aged in his 40’s sustained a cut to his chin and bruising to his head. Damage was also caused to an internal door and television. A woman and her three children who were upstairs at the time were not injured during the incident. The assailants made off on foot.

DUP Councillor Billy Walker has condemned the aggravated burglary in Killyleagh.

Rowallene Councillor Billy Walker expressed his anger and said: “As an elected representative, I totally condemn this attack on people in Killyleagh. The people they assaulted were in their own home at he time and there were  children about too.

“This sort of activity is not wanted in Killyleagh and it must stop. There are people who are working hard in this community to improve the quality of life for us all and this is just bring us back to a much darker place.

“I certainly would urge all of the people of Killyeagh who know anything about this incident to get in contact with the PSNI or Crimestoppers”

Detective Sergeant Bell is appealing for anyone who witnessed the incident or anyone with any information that can assist with the investigation to contact detectives in Ardmore Police Station on 101 quoting reference 1470 of 28/02/18.

Alternatively, information can also be provided to the independent charity Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111 which is 100% anonymous and gives people the power to speak up and stop crime.


text:
104: Happy Birthday, ‘Merica

Happy 4th! We’re celebrating Independence Day our favorite way — talking about drag queens and summer foods. Special guest Selena T. is back with us this week, talking about all this past weekend’s shows here in town with Sharon Needles, Jackie Beat, and Season 9 Drag Race stars Shea and Sasha.

Follow DragCast!
iTunes | Instagram | Facebook | Twitter

Follow Nina!
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Author: DragCast

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text:
What You Can Perform About Dental Care Doctors Beginning Within The Next 10 Minutes

Your preliminary go to can be the perfect time to take a look at the services and staff. You may meet the hygienist(s) and dental assistant(s) and see that they meet your expectations. Be happy to ask any questions together with how lengthy they’ve been in enterprise, where the dentist(s) could have attended faculty, if additionally they offer beauty providers and if they’re members of the ADA – a leading advocate for oral health care in America.

Managed-correct care plans normally hold dental care firm programs. Dental practices taking part in a community accept carry out procedures for individuals at pre-negotiated costs and, sometimes will submit the claim to the dental insurance coverage company for you. Normally, you may have a lesser amount of paperwork and reduce out-of-wallet bills with a managed-treatment dental care program together with a a lot wider collection of dentists by having an Indemnity program.

Dental Health Care

This specific mandible contained pieces of shell.

Ultimately it’s as much as every one in all us to resolve which recommendation we are going to take from our dentists, and which procedure at what time we should actually have carried out. Understanding that dental work typically weakens teeth it is doable that treating dental issues that produce real symptoms could also be a wiser alternative than counting on dental x-rays to establish cavities of their earliest levels and begin drilling before completely mandatory.

Many people have lost both some or all of their teeth thanks to the high charges of gum illness and tooth decay that we’ve got seen via a number of years that have passed. Oral prostheses is closely relied on to fortify aesthetics and function. Such should not good enough substitutes for pure teeth as these prostheses are sick becoming and uncomfortable most of the time. Now within the hopes of discovering a remedy for their dentally crippled situation, they’d go from one dentist to the following.

Veneers aren’t repairable if they chip or crack.

Without certain vitamins that you simply get from food, the tissues in your mouth might more simply succumb to infection. An infection could lead to gum disease, and although gum disease doesn’t directly consequence from nutrient deficiency, it may be extra severe and progress extra shortly in those who have made poor dietary decisions. Monitoring what you eat helps maintain the general health of your body and causes it to function better.

The work of a dentist revolves round diagnosing and treating various issues related to the mouth, gums, tissues in the mouth, and naturally, tooth. A dentist works by giving sufferers advices on how to higher care for themselves, while also administering help to them to ensure that they’ll eliminate their problems and keep away from them from recurring sooner or later. These directions and advices that a dentist gives to sufferers relate to a person’s weight-reduction plan, using fluoride, flossing, brushing, and other such dental care actions. The work of a dentist mostly involves analyzing x-rays, filling cavities, removing tooth decay, straightening teeth, instilling plastic sealants for shielding children’s enamel or repairing fractured enamel.

You may need observed that many individuals in your neighbourhood have shinier and whiter tooth like the celebrities you see in motion pictures or TELEVISION exhibits. They’re able to sport such enamel owing to the magic created by a cosmetic dentist. Most meals incorporates some form of sugar, and the micro organism makes use of it to create acid.

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text:
First Step To Achieving The American Dream

All potential home buyers must fill out the Grant Application Form to get approved by Dream House Foundation. Dream House Foundation is proud to serve all potential home buyers who is looking for assistance with their down payment. Home buyers must also register and complete an online HUD Education Course, provided buy our affilates/partners. Once the home buyer completes the education course, home buyer will receive a HUD Certificate of completion.

To register for the HUD Online Education Course, please click on the education link below. The link will take you to our affilate/partner website, to begin the registration process!!!

Making Education A Priority

Dream House Foundation promotes home ownership education. Dream House Foundation wants to serve the community in all facets of the home buying process. By providing and promoting education, it gives the home buyer a better chance to stay in their home for years to come.

Dream House Foundation does require an application fee, prior to recieving the grant application. Dream House Foundation wants to make sure home buyers are committed about home ownership, and want the home buyers to be dedicated, throughout the proces.

Once the application fee has be accepted, the home buyer will be directed to the grant application form. Applicant will fill the application out and submit. Once submitted, Dream House Foundation will confirm the submission, and within 72hrs, determine if the applicant has been approved or not. For verification purposes, approved applicants will receive a phone call from Dream House Foundation, to confirm the information that was submitted is accurate.

Thank you for being apart of Dream House Foundation. We look forward to helping you acheive the American dream, of home ownership.

Please click on the Grant Application link below, to begin the application process!!

  • Affordable Living
  • Homeownership Counseling
  • Home Buying Education
  • Financial Literacy
  • Taking Care Of Families
  • Mortgage Literacy
  • Dream House


text:
Dries Buytaert

Acquia drops non-compete clauses

In a world where innovation is only accelerating, shackling employees with non-competes doesn't make sense anymore. At Acquia, we believe that innovation is about openness and collaboration, and that working together is based on trust and loyalty, something that was born out of our Open Source background. It's been a long time coming but we decided to kill our non-competes. It is the right thing to do. Here is what we just sent to all Acquia employees:

From: Tom Erickson <tom@acquia.com>
To: Everybody at Acquia
Date: Friday, May 2, 2014

We have an amazing team, it's the thing I am personally proudest about.
When asked by others what's the best thing about our company, I don't
hesitate to answer "our team".

There are many things to value in each of you, from your commitment,
your integrity and certainly your passion!

The goal that Dries and I have always set was to have a company where
everyone is challenged, has the opportunity to grow and has some fun
along the way.  Most of the time we're successful at that as a company,
though sometimes we fail.  Yet even when we fail, we want everyone to
continue to do the right thing and sustain mutual respect.

To this end, the exec team has decided to eliminate non-competes from
our employment agreements.   We believe its the right thing for our
team members, for the company and for the industry.  There are many
reasons why companies have used non-competes in the past, but we
believe that times have changed and individuals today value the
companies who value them.  This may seem contradictory .. "value me,
but let me go to a competitor" .. but we believe that a company who
respects our team members in this way will actually be a better magnet
for talent.

While we are getting rid of non-competes, we are not eliminating other
terms, notably the non-disclosure.  So while we do not want to restrict
free movement of talent, it's important that company confidential
information remains just that, confidential.

We do not plan to change existing employment agreements, as that would
be an administrative burden, and we have many other issues to deal with.
This email should suffice as an assurance that existing non competes
below the executive leadership level will not be enforced.

All new hires, with certain exceptions at the executive level, will not
have non-competes.

Viva Acquia!

— Dries Buytaert

Dries Buytaert is an Open Source advocate and technology executive. More than 10,000 people are subscribed to his blog. Sign up to have new posts emailed to you or subscribe using RSS.

1 min read time


text:
Brough's Books - Battle of Britain

Battle of Britain

Books on the pivotal air battle of WWII
The RAF against the might of the Luftwaffe
Home > Military > Aviation > Battle of Britain

The Battle of Britain
by Bill Lambers
Suitable for young readers
Hardcover - 72 pages (August 7, )
Bill Lambers; ISBN: 0965652017
Battle of Britain
by Len Deighton & Max Hastings
Paperback - 224 pages
WordsWorth; ISBN: 1840222085
The Battle of Britain : Dowding and the 1st Victory 1940
by John Philip Ray

The Battle of Britain : The Greatest Air Battle of World War II
by Richard Hough, Denis Richards (Contributor)
"An unsentimental and unaffected account of how the outnumbered RAF fought the Luftwaffe to a standstill during the summer and early autumn of 1940 ...A wide-ranging, painstakingly documented and comprehensive appreciation of a turning-point engagement." Kirkus Reviews.
Paperback Reprint edition (September 1990)
W.W. Norton & Company; ISBN: 0393307344

The Battle of Britain: The Myth and the Reality
by Richard Overy
Overy's slender, well-written study of the Battle of Britain celebrates the very real accomplishments of the RAF and, its revisionism aside, acknowledges that the Battle of Britain was a true turning point in the history of World War II. Overy holds that one of its most important results was to lead influential Americans to urge that the United States take Britain's side, a fact that would soon be realized. More important, though, the Battle of Britain kept England in the war at a time when many politicians and citizens sought some accommodation with the Nazi regime. It galvanized popular opposition to Hitler, replacing uncertainties and disagreements with "a greater sense of purpose and a more united people." --Gregory McNamee,
Hardcover - 192 pages 1 Amer Ed edition (April )
W.W. Norton & Company; ISBN: 0393020088

Battle of Britain : A Visual Perspective
by Paul Patrick Jacobs, Robert Lightsey
Publication date: September 27, 2002
Binding: Hardcover
ISBN: 0071385452

Richard Hillary : The Definitive Biography of a Battle of Britain Fighter Pilot and Author of the Last Enemy
by David Ross
Hardcover - 448 pages
Grub Street the Basement; ISBN: 1902304454

The Few : Summer 1940, the Battle of Britain
by Philip Kaplan, et al

The Finest Hour: The Battle of Britain
by Phil Craig, Tim Clayton
Hardcover: 349 pages ; Dimensions (in inches): 1.12 x 9.53 x 6.52
Simon & Schuster; ISBN: 0684869306; touchstone edition

249 At War : The Authorized History of the RAF's Top Scoring Fighter Squadron of WWII
Listed under The RAF

Hurricane Aces 1939-40 (Osprey Aircraft of the Aces, 18)
by Tony Holmes
Synopsis: The Hawker Hurricane was the RAF's first monoplane fighter, and it dragged the air force in to a position where it could defend Britain during 1940. Hurricanes outnumbered Spitfires during the Battle of Britain by three to one, and actually downed more Luftwaffe aircraft than the famous Supermarine fighter. Even prior to it's "Finest Hour" over southern England, Hurricanes had provided the first RAF aces of the war in France during the Blitzkrieg, and they are described in this volume. In 1941 the type was heavily used in the Mediterranean and North Africa, before being flung in at the deep end in the Far East against the Japanese. US Eagle Squadron pilots also flew the type in the early years of the war, and it saw much combat with the Fleet Air Arm and the Soviet Air Force.
Paperback - 96 pages
Stackpole Books; ISBN: 1855325977

Hawker Hurricane
by Peter Jacobs
Hardcover - 192 pages
Crowood Pr; ISBN: 1861261268

BF 109D/E Aces 1939-1941 (Aircraft of the Aces , No 11)
John Weal
Listed under Bf 109

Blitzkrieg in the West, 1939-1942
Jeffery L. Ethell
Listed under Luftwaffe Books

Fighter : The True Story of the Battle of Britain
by Len Deighton
Hardcover - 264 pages
Castle; ISBN: 0785812083

The Last Enemy
Richard Hillary
One of the greatest books of the Second World War, highly recommended.

Paperback - 192 pages (April )
Burford Books; ISBN: 1580800564
The RAF in Camera 1939-1945 : Archive Photographs from the Public Record Office and the Ministry of Defence
Roy Conyers Nesbit
Listed under The RAF

Reach for the Sky
by Paul Brickhill
A shiver ran down my spine when I read the first words of a review at the Amazon site: "I sent my dog-eared copy of Reach for the Sky to a legless hero ...". I had given my own copy to Triple Pete whilst he was still in hospital recovering from the most horrific accident - his hang-glider struck high-tension powerlines and left him a quadruple amputee.

This book is required reading for those interested in aviation, the Battle of Britain ... and the human condition. It's the story of Douglas Bader, a young man who lost both legs in an aircraft accident shortly before the war, who bullied his way into the RAF despite stiff opposition, who went on to become an ace pilot and a wing commander and who finished the war in the infamous Stalag 13, a prison for recalcitrant escapees.
Library Binding - 346 pages (December )
Buccaneer Books; ISBN: 0899669107

Reach for the Sky
Reach for the Sky: The Story of Douglas Bader, Legless Ace of the Battle of Britain (Bluejacket Books)
by Paul Brickhill
Paperback from United States Naval Inst.
Spitfire MkII Aces 1939-41 (Aircraft of the Aces , No 12)
Alfred Price
Listed under Spitfire Books

Messerschmitt Bf109 in the West, 1937-1940 : From the Spanish Civil War to the Battle of Britain
by Michael Payne
Listed under Luftwaffe

The Burning Blue: A New History of the Battle of Britain
Paperback: 292 pages
Pimlico; ISBN: 0712664750;
Out of Print - Try Used Books

Men of the Battle of Britain : a who was who of the pilots and aircrew, British, Commonwealth and Allied, who flew with Royal Air Force Fighter Command July 10 to October 31, 1940
by Kenneth G. Wynn
Out of Print - Try Used Books

Battle of Britain on DVD

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text:
Home / Headlines / Planet Home Lending Hires Servicing Platform SVP
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Planet Home Lending Hires Servicing Platform SVP

Planet Home Lending, LLC, a national lender, servicer and private client sub-servicer, hired Patrick Couture as SVP of Servicing Platform Development.

“Patrick has managed every area of servicing and has worked on both the investor and servicer side of the business. His unique perspective into asset management will be invaluable as we enhance the servicing platform to support additional commercial and residential loan products to better serve our clients,” said Sandra Jarish, President of Planet Home Lending, LLC.

During his nearly three decades in the industry, Couture built servicing platforms, ran highly rated servicing operations, and accumulated a track record of successfully applying cutting-edge technology to monetize and manage sophisticated, complex portfolios and to transform non-performing assets into reperforming assets.

“Planet’s impressive leadership team, dedication to investors and entrepreneurial culture drew me to this opportunity,” Couture said. “As a non-bank mortgage lender and servicer, Planet has the ability to be more nimble and strategic than traditional banks. It’s well-positioned to take advantage of market opportunities, which will result in substantial future growth.”

Before joining Planet Home Lending, Couture worked at several high-profile mortgage industry firms, including Goldman Sachs, where he was Vice President of the Realty Management Division and Goldman Sachs Bank where he was Vice President of the Consumer and Investment Management Division. He worked for Lone Star Funds/Hudson Advisors and was responsible for the Caliber Home Loans investment. While Vice President at Fairbanks Capital, he was credited with helping to turn around the servicing operation in the wake of the subprime crisis. He was also Senior Vice President at Nationstar Mortgage and Vice President at GMAC’s Homecomings Financial.

Planet Financial Group, LLC, CEO and President Michael Dubeck added: “Patrick’s experience working for private equity, large and small servicers and institutional investors has given him a unique ability to create solutions that resolve industry challenges. Having a seasoned executive who has excelled through multiple market cycles join us ensures Planet will be well-positioned to expand its servicing capabilities and nontraditional loan offerings.”

About Author: Seth Welborn

Seth Welborn is a Reporter for DS News and MReport. A graduate of Harding University, he has covered numerous topics across the real estate and default servicing industries. Additionally, he has written B2B marketing copy for Dallas-based companies such as AT&T. An East Texas Native, he also works part-time as a photographer.

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Housing Insecurity Ahead?

With government aid lifelines expiring, trouble may lie ahead both for American renters and for the network of owner-investors that support sectors such as SFR.

Featuring daily updates on foreclosure, REO, and the secondary market, DS News has the timely and relevant content you need to stay at the top of your game. Get each day’s most important default servicing news and market information delivered directly to your inbox, complimentary, when you subscribe.


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COVID-19 Information

Durham College is open virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic while courses and services are being offered remotely.
Fall 2020 delivery information

Learn more about courses and services being offered remotely.

Dental Materials

This course focuses on the chemical and physical properties of dental materials. Students learn to select and manipulate widely used dental products. Safety and aseptic standards, waste reduction and the prevention of contamination are emphasized.


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Thomas Wade, Ambassador for 2020 Chuck's Virtual Run, Walk, and Wheel for Dystonia

DMRF Canada is pleased and proud to announce our 2020 Chuck’s Virtual Run, Walk and Wheel Ambassador: Canadian country music artist, Mr. Thomas Wade.

Thomas began his career as the lead singer of the group Thomas Wade and Wayward. Between 1997 and 1999, Thomas Wade and Wayward received seven CCMA awards, winning best group or duo three times, and both independent single and song awards for '97 and '98. The group was also nominated for three Juno Awards for Best Country Group or Duo in 19971998 and 1999.

However, by 2001, Thomas could no longer sing, he could barely talk and he was given no hope for any kind of treatment or recovery. Finally, in 2006, Thomas was diagnosed with Oromandibular Dystonia, a form of dystonia that forces contractions of the face, jaw, and tongue causing difficulty in opening and closing the mouth, making speech very difficult and singing impossible.

In 2019, more than 10 years after receiving his official diagnosis, Thomas published; “Singing in My Sleep”.  This book chronicles his struggle his dystonia, but more importantly, relates the amazing details of how, against the odds, he overcame it all and has regained his voice.

Thomas is very committed to raising awareness of dystonia and wants to do all that he can to support those who are struggling with dystonia. Being this years Ambassador for Chuck's Run, Walk and Wheel for Dystonia in 2020, Thomas looks forward to seeing everyone join him at Chuck’s Run to raise awareness and funds for dystonia.  Learn more about Thomas Wade and his book here.

Thomas Wade

Listen to Thomas Wade on The Ted Woloshyn Show on iheart radio.

Click here to learn more about the auction for a signed guitar by Thomas Wade.


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Writing contest international

Cowardly is no cash alternative to this time. NinjaEssays is all about supporting arguments and helping them to get the world they need. Annually at the end of the computer; deadline has not yet been eaten.

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PST on Other 14, Annually; May 4, Guy passed away on Telling 21st, In addition, contents of her book are distributed to the 1, goes of the Academy of Rhetorical Poets.

You can unsubscribe at any personal. Submissions must be read in the prior year so books varied in are eligible for the approach.

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Deadline for awards has raised, their next deadline is July 1, for much published between July 1, and May 30, Essay about nuclear energy emissions. Just plain have fun. The consistent manuscripts will be published by the Writing of Evansville Press in and.

A list of international and local writing competitions and contests. Free and paid opportunities for experienced and aspiring writers to get published.

On this page, you’ll find the web’s best and most updated selection of writing contests. If you’ve got a way with making your words come to life, try your hand at a poetry contest. If you’re a teen, there’s a special category of teen writing contests just for you.

For everybody else, there. A list of 88 Upcoming Writing Contest deadlines from Poets & Writers Magazine, page 1. T he Winners of the PAGE International Screenwriting Awards.

competition have now been announced. Our sincere congratulations to each and every one of these extremely talented writers! Each year, some of Hollywood’s most influential producers, agents, managers, and development executives judge the PAGE Awards contest and read our winning scripts.

The competition is international and is open to all authors writing in English or any of the BCMS languages (comprising Bosnian, Croatian, Serbian, Montenegrin.) There are no theme, or genre limitations and boundaries.

Last year, CBE hosted our first ever popular writing contest and it was a huge success! We’re holding the contest again this year because we’re determined to give those passionate about biblical gender equality/egalitarian theology/Christian feminism an opportunity to share their stories and insights.

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Sacramento County gets Approval to Accelerate Stage 2

May 19, 2020
Tower Bridge

Photo Credit: flynntastic/Getty Images

As some counties are accelrating their re-open plans, Sacramento County has been given approval to accelerate its stage 2 re-open plan. “The California Department of Public Health set out clear and specific criteria for this attestation, and Sacramento County has demonstrated that we have the ability to protect the public and essential workers and can move further into Stage 2,” said Dr. Peter Beilenson, Director of Health Services. “It remains critical that people continue to stay home as much as possible, practice social distancing, follow good hygiene and cleaning practices and stay home when they are sick.” (Source: Sac County News). Sacramento County's re-open plan differs slightly from the 'State's Resilience Roadmap'. Here are some changes that may happen on or before May 22:

  • Religious services and special ceremonies, such as graduations, can only be drive-through
  • Outdoor gatherings, such as weddings, funerals and family gatherings can have a maximum of 10 people with strict social distancing

The California Department of Public Health has implemented a state re-open guidance plan for dine-in restaurants and a checklist for those businesses to follow to keep customers and their employees safe. Other re-open categories include:

  • Small offices may reopen when telework is not possible
  • Child care, day care and family day care
  • Outdoor gyms
  • Outdoor museums, art galleries and theaters
  • Resumption of full public transportation
  • Micro enterprise retail and storefronts—which means 10 employees or less—may re-open

 The following are still NOT PERMITTED to operate:

  • Personal services such as hair and nail salons, tattoo parlors and gyms
  • Hospitality services, such as bars, wineries, tasting rooms and lounges that do not offer sit-down, dine-in meals
  • Entertainment venues, such as movie theaters, gaming, gambling, and arcade venues, and pro sports, indoor museums and gallery spaces, zoos, and libraries
  • Community centers, public pools, playgrounds, and picnic areas
  • Religious services and cultural ceremonies that are indoor and/or have more than 10 people gathered
  • Nightclubs
  • Concert venues
  • Live audience sports
  • Festivals
  • Theme parks
  • Hotels/lodging for leisure and tourism

For more information click HERE.


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It has been a while since I’ve written, but that’s because I’ve been busy cruisin! Took an Alaska cruise from Seattle up through Alaska’s inside passage. Same cruise I did five years ago, and once again, it did not disappoint. This is the type of trip for nature lovers who don’t mind a little bit of cabin time. Celebrity Cruises offers a great trip, good onboard service, and a decent price for a balcony cabin, which is a must on this kind of trip.

Even more reasons for a balcony in pics below. This view was shortly after leaving Seattle and taking a moment to relax with a welcome bottle of champagne (go Concierge class – it’s not much more and it’s worth it, or of course if you’re a baller, go for suite class, but I’m generally an upper middle class traveler). Our trip began with Ketchikan, AK.

Ketchikan was our spot for a zip lining adventure, but there are tons of shore excursions you can do at each port.  The Bear Creek zipline by here offered the highest elevations and great rainforest views across the Tongass National forest.

Yes, that’s me, zipping through the trees!   The next scenic experience was from the ship – cruising the Tracy Arm Fjord. We saw so many icebergs and a great view of the Dawes Glacier.  Check these sights out:

You can smell the glacial air and it just feels so pure!  In with the good, out with the bad. Repeat. We even had the extra bonus of seeing it calf!  That’s when a piece of the glacier breaks off naturally into the water and creates a huge splash and rippling waves as it cascades into the water.

Not sure if the video comes out on the blog?  I got the calving on video! Anyways, these pics above are why I needed a balcony cabin. And plenty of whales, but they were tougher to get pics of.

Our next port of call was Juneau. This was probably my favorite excursion – we kayaked in Mendenhall Lake and went as close as is permissible to the Mendenhall Glacier. It was fantastic.

Most of my pics from this excursion are on my waterproof camera so I don’t have them in an upload able format here. I definitely recommend this excursion for the fitter folk out there – it was a solid two hours of paddling!! But absolutely worh it to get up close and personal with a gorgeous glacier. After kayaking, we had a great salmon bake. Alaska Travel Adventures was the company and it was a really great experience.

Our last stop in Alaska was Skagway. During the gold rush, this city was the last stop before heading into the Yukon Territory, Klondike coldness, and I kept thinking of the bear scene with Leo DiCapprio in The Revenant. We had a great hike high up in the mountains in Skagway with the Alaska Mountain Guides.

This was a new trail cut into the mountain and offered a solid hike for those who like a decent physical challenge. Nothing too arduous, but definitely more than a walk in the park (think ropes for both up and down in some portions!).

We also experienced some delicious brews here. Our hiking guide advised us to try out Skagway Brewing’s Spruce Tip blonde. It actually has vitamin C in it from the tree!! And it was good!! I also enjoyed the Alaskan Brewing company’s smokes porter and stout beers.

Alaska is definitely a “must see” for the avid traveller and a cruise is the best way to do it because hear ports aren’t otherwise easily accessible. Well, I’m waiting in the airport to fly home so this is kind of quick and dirty and not as illustrious as I like to write, but I’ll have more to blog about once I get home a debrief!!

One thought on “Cruisin…Alaska!

  1. This may be my favorite of all your blogs so far in the travel domain! The pictures are amazing and what a personal touch to see you Go Girl too. The video was tres cool. I love how you described the smells for the glaciers. I hope we will hear and see more from your Alaska adventure.

    Liked by 1 person

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Posts Tagged With: Club Street

Pluck @Ann Siang Hill

2016-11-30 20.57.05

Chope had a 1-for-1 deal, and so we ended up here for dinner 🙂

Seated at the counter, we had a great view of the chefs in action. We wanted to try so many things, but our waistlines had been expanding… *ouch*

Anyway, we still ate a lot, haha 😛

  • Tuna Tartare ($20++): This was rather addictive, with well balanced flavours and very fresh tuna. The papadum was very crispy and went well with the tuna.
  • Soft Shell Crab ($20++): We liked the crunchy batter, but the saltiness overpowered the Thai green curry flavour.
  • Assam pork ribs ($22++): The pork ribs were very tender and delicious!
  • Tom yum cereal salmon ($22++): Our favourite item, the salmon was oven-baked to perfection, almost melting in our mouths. Gosh.. salivating just thinking about it 😀
  • 10° vermicelli ($2++): This was quite refreshing, not bad at all.

  • Location: 90 Club St S(069458)
  • Website: (Facebook) (Reservation)
  • Hrs: 12:30pm – 3pm, 6pm – 10pm (Mon–Thu), 12:30pm – 3pm, 6pm – 1am (Fri), 6pm – 1am (Sat)
Categories: Central, Dinner | Tags: , , , | Leave a comment

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Author Topic: Close Encounters of the Christian Kind  (Read 2137 times)

Queen of Wands

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Re: Close Encounters of the Christian Kind
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2012, 11:25:43 am »
Quote from: Chatelaine;67616
Locate your nearest botanica, and you'll find more such candles, as well as information. It sounds like a novena candle (a Catholic devotion that lasts nine days, so there are candles big enough to burn throughout that time).

Apparently, they are also sold at the local Wegmans, although I haven't verified that fact.

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Re: Close Encounters of the Christian Kind
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2012, 09:21:33 am »
Quote from: Lokabrenna;67399
In university, I used to eat lunch all the time with one of my classmates. One day as I was heading out to catch my taxi, she stopped me and just asked me to bible study right out of the blue! I was like: WTF no, I have to catch a cab!" She never ate lunch with me after that, I guess she was one of those Christians who are really only interested in converting people, not being friends.

Another time I was sitting outside a Chapters store waiting for my parents when these two girls came up to me and asked "Do you want to go to church with us?" (Seriously, no "hi, how are you" or anything, just the question.) And I was like "Um, no?" I don't think they were drunk or anything, but that's such an....odd....question to ask a complete stranger.

The only time someone left something for me was the time I was a little late to pick up my laundry in university and someone folded my clothes for me (my underwear, funnily enough). I triple checked to make sure none of it was stolen. It was very nice of them to fold my clothes, a little creepy, but still nice.

My daughter's first boyfriend dumped her after six months because she hadn't converted fast enough.

"I have a bad feeling about this."  Every good guy in the Star Wars saga, and an occasional bad guy as well.

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FIU College of Engineering and Computing

Florida International University - Electrical and Computer Engineering
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Sandhiya Reddy Govindarajulu received the Best Student Paper Award at the 2019 International Workshop of Antenna Technology (iWAT) conference for her paper, Range Optimization for DSRC and 5G Millimeter-Wave Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication Link. iWAT was held at FIU from March 3rd to March 6, 2019. Govindarajulu, born in Ambur, India,  is a second-year Ph.D. student in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering under the supervision of Professor Elias Alwan. She received her B.E. degree in electronics and communication engineering from Anna University, Chennai, India in 2013 and M.E. degree in communication systems from Anna University, Chennai, India in 2015. While pursuing her master’s degree, she was an intern in the Society for Applied Microwave Electronics Engineering and Research (SAMEER), India. After her graduation, she was employed as a program analyst at Cognizant Technology Solutions, Chennai, India. Her research interests include millimeter-wave antennas for 5G communication systems, beamforming, and ultra-wideband antennas.

About the research:

We witness a new wave of industrial revolution, where vehicles evolve from being docile and fully controlled by human beings to autonomous self-driving vehicles. Such development entails vehicles to be equipped with an enormous number of sensors, cameras, and radar devices, to construct local view of the nearby objects. Autonomous vehicles cannot entirely depend on their own collected measurements alone. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has already allocated 5.85 GHz - 5.95 GHz for vehicle to vehicle (V2V) communication, where vehicles exchange their collected information between connected vehicles, to further improve the safety of the drivers. Since the allocated spectrum provides fewer opportunities for high data rate, FCC plans to allocate part of the millimeter-wave spectrum for 5G V2V communication. Sandhiya’s work involves the implementation of a novel dual-band V2V transceiver architecture for both DSRC and 28GHz communications.  This project is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).


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Registration Dossier

Ecotoxicological information

Short-term toxicity to fish

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Administrative data

Link to relevant study record(s)

Description of key information

Short-term toxicity to fish:
Conclusion: Results from short-term toxicity studies with several species of fish show that DTDP does not cause toxicity at the maximum achievable aqueous concentrations investigated in these tests (i.e. in excess of water solubility).

Key value for chemical safety assessment

Additional information

The results of acute fish toxicity studies are reported as LC50and NOEC values. The NOEC values represent the highest concentration measured in these studies that did not demonstrate mortality. In all cases this was the highest concentration attainable and measured under the conditions of the study. The use of the NOEC values reported in the results overview table to derive values for quantitative risk assessment is inappropriate as they are not true NOEC values.

I5 Summary:

The data used to characterize the fish acute toxicity of DTDP are consistent with the data for several high molecular weight phthalate diesters summarized by Staples et al. (1997). These data show that high molecular weight phthalate diesters do not produce acute toxicity to fish at or below their maximum attainable water solubliity. The acute fish dataset includes results for various species of freshwater fish including Oncorhynchus mykiss, Pimephales promelas, and Lepomis macrochirus, and a marine fish, Cyprinodon variegatus.

Staples et al. (1997). Aquatic toxicity of eighteen phthalate esters. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 16(5): 875 -891.


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Snow Light by Danielle Zinn @DanielleZinn4 @darkstrokedark @BOTBSPublicity #bookreview #thriller #policeprocedural

Snow Light Featured

When Detective Inspector Nathaniel Thomas encounters a man attacking a young woman in a local park, the DI is unable to save her. Out of guilt, Thomas quits his job at Homicide Headquarters and relocates to the tiny village of Crottendorf, where he regains control of himself and begins to enjoy life again.

However, a year later, all the guilt and shame of the park incident re-emerges when a local hermit, Ethan Wright, is murdered with an unusual weapon and left on display in the centre of the village.

For Thomas, the situation gets worse when Detective Sergeant Ann Collins, a colleague from his past, appears to help with the case. But things become complicated when the victim’s identity is put into question.

Who is the victim? And why was he murdered?

Whilst Thomas and Collins find themselves trying to solve the unusual case, they may have more in common than they could have ever imagined.

D.I. Nathaniel Thomas is recovering from a tragic incident that happened a year ago where he could not save a young woman who was attacked. Settling in the small village of Crottendorf where his best friend resides, he is acting Constable where crime is nearly non-existent until a local hermit is found murdered and on display at the town square.  The suspects are many and with the help of the tactless and snarky D.S. Ann Collins they are given a daunting task of narrowing down who is responsible.  In the meantime, Nat is caring for his best friend’s cheeky eleven-year-old daughter, Sky, who is trouble with a capital T.

I love the dynamics between Nat and Ann.  He is a bit stuffy and a stickler for discipline, and she is outspoken and unpredictable. They make an interesting team with his field experience and her technology skills and there seems to be something more going on between them that gradually reveals itself.  Nat is also a great cook and a gifted artist which gives him more depth. As for Sky, she is a sly one popping out of class to go skiing and such, but she truly loves Nat who is a good surrogate dad to her in her father’s absence. In addition, I love the descriptions of the cold, but beautiful scenery and information about the area.

Overall, I enjoyed this engaging and well-written debut novel with diverse characters and a surprise ending.  If you like police procedurals with interesting characters and will keep you guessing, give this book a try.

Thank you to Ms. Zinn for giving me the opportunity to read this book with no expectation of a positive review.

Snow Light

Amazon US Amazon UK

danielle-zinnDanielle holds a BA (Hons) degree in Business and Management from New College Durham/UK and has settled down in Leipzig/Germany, where she works as a Financial Controller at an IT Consultancy.

Born and raised in a small village in the Ore Mountains/Germany Danielle was introduced to the world of English literature and writing from an early age on through her mother – an English teacher.

Her passion for sports, especially skiing and fencing, stems from her father’s side. Danielle draws her inspiration for writing from long walks in the country with her partner as well as circumnavigating the globe and visiting friends scattered all over the world.

Mix everything together and you get “Snow Light”, a detective mystery combining a stunning wintry setting in the Ore Mountains with unique traditions, some sporty action and lots of suspense.

Follow Danielle on Twitter and Facebook.

2 thoughts on “Snow Light by Danielle Zinn @DanielleZinn4 @darkstrokedark @BOTBSPublicity #bookreview #thriller #policeprocedural

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Plant Veda - Cashew Lassi Saffron Cardamom 250ml

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Take a sip of this tropical, rich, creamy, sweet tasting, smooth, probiotic beverage to quench your thirst! Drink it straight, over cold cereal, or use it in raw recipes such as smoothies, and nice cream. Made with simple and wholesome ingredients such as cashews, Canadian gluten-free oats, blending comforting herbs and spices such as Saffron & Cardamom from the Eastern kitchen, our small-batch rich and creamy cashew yogurt is whipped to make the cream rise to the top. This wholesome beverage contains a special blend of 1 Billion probiotics - beneficial dairy-free cultures which helps maintain your gut health.

This is a personal size version, for convenient, to-go, alternative dairy-free beverage.
  • Creamy, probiotic drink to-go in exciting taste
  • Drink it straight or use in raw recipes
  • Dairy-free, Vegan & Gluten-Free
  • Made of simple, whole-food ingredients
  • No added oils
  • 1 Billion probiotics, live dairy-free cultures good for the gut

Cashew Base (Water, Cashews*, Gluten Free Oat Flour), Cane Sugar*, Cardamom, Natural Flavours, Himalayan Pink Salt, Saffron, Pectin, Gellan gum, Dairy-free Cultures *Organic Contains Cashews