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Friday, November 30, 2007

The Breakup of Belgium as a Model for Europe

Why the EU is undemocratic, and how a breakup of Belgium would expose that flaw

Our Flemish correspondent ProFlandria has been monitoring the situation in Belgium through various sources. Below is a summary he has prepared for Gates of Vienna readers.

The following is a lecture by John Laughland, the European Director of the European Foundation, which was given last Saturday in the Belgian federal parliament building in Brussels. It was posted at Brussels Journal in its entirety.

While Laughland’s focus is on the reaction of Europe to a Belgian crack-up, he indirectly documents why the Flemish nationalist movement can be a brake on the European Union’s undemocratic ambitions; he even mentions immigration in this context.
Map of Flanders
This explains why Vlaams Belang’s mission also serves ours. The European Union is rapidly replacing the national governments as the conduit for Islamization, and as the obstacle against resistance. If VB can successfully demonstrate that a nationalist movement can reverse the drain of state power from elected bodies to an unelected oligarchy without turning into the dreaded “N”-word, then citizens everywhere will be encouraged to take back the authority so freely surrendered by their governments.

This sequence of events is indispensable if we are to have any hope of stemming the tide of Islamization. Resistance is most effective at the grassroots level; within the European context, the member nations are that level. However, action at the national level is becoming impossible within the existing EU straitjacket.

Here are the relevant excerpts from the text:

The question of the breakup of Belgium is no longer taboo in the Western European press. On the contrary, it is discussed openly as a possible, even likely future event. [BBC News 24 did a 12-hour marathon on Belgium’s situation yesterday — summary here]

What will the attitude of the rest of Europe be to the breakup of Belgium? As one surveys the geopolitics of post Cold War Europe, one can say only that one is struck by the double standards with which the EU and the US treat the question of national independence.

On the one hand, since 1991, no fewer than fifteen new states have emerged on the European continent as a result of secessionist movements. […] Now, indeed, the European Union is actively supporting a sixteenth secession, that of Kosovo. […]

On the other hand, the West opposes secessions when they do not suit it geo-politically. […] The reasons why the West opposes secession in Moldova, Bosnia and elsewhere are geopolitical and ideological. […] In the case of Bosnia, that artificial state was elevated, during the Yugoslav war, to an icon of multiculturalism […].

In my view, Europe will oppose the breakup of Belgium for the same reasons.

Laughland then explains that “there is no question that an independent Flanders could be a viable state” [this argument is important because the opposite argument is used by those who oppose Flemish independence] because the size of its population and its established historical identity compares favorable with those of recently seceded states. He then states what he suspects will be the reason for European opposition to Flemish independence:
- - - - - - - - -
[…] it will not serve the cause of European integration. With the partial exception of Czechoslovakia, the breakup of multi-ethnic states in Eastern Europe has helped Europe integration — on the basis of “divide and rule”. Small bogus states with no real political existence provide good “lobby fodder” in the Council of Ministers — they take the EU’s money and vote how they are told. It is obvious that very few of the secessions in Europe since 1991 have occurred as a result of a desire for real independence, or else the new states would not immediately have joined the EU and NATO. […]

On the contrary, the breakup of Belgium would show that the fault-line which is at the heart of the European project runs right through the EU’s very capital. That fault-line is the contradiction between democracy and supranationalism. Flemings of course understand that a supranational state is inimical to democracy, and that it destroys it. The larger nations of Europe do not understand this because they are relatively influential within the EU and because the prominence of their national political life obscures the fact that they are, in fact, governed by the EU, which is a totally undemocratic and even anti-democratic organisation.

Laughland reminds his audience why the EU is undemocratic, and how a breakup of Belgium would expose that flaw:

[…] the main decisions are taken in secret by the unelected Commission and the unaccountable Council of Ministers. National parliaments are systematically emasculated by the EU, which gives governments [the Cabinet, instead of parliament — for US purposes, the Administration instead of Congress] the right to make laws, in secret. The fact that the defunct European Constitution is even now being re-introduced, having been rejected in referendums in France and the Netherlands in 2005 (two founder member states of the EU) shows that the EU is prepared to override the results of democratic direct polls in order to achieve its aims. Democracy is actively suppressed by European integration.

[…] The EU is […] based on the historic reconciliation between the old countries of the original Holy Roman Empire — France, Germany, Italy and the Low Countries. The specifically Franco-German aspect of this reconciliation is mirrored in microcosm in the coexistence of the Flemings and Walloons within Belgium. Many Belgian leaders including the late King Baudoin indeed said that the EU was a sort of Greater Belgium. The collapse of the Belgian model would be an event of immense significance and would, in my view, deliver a further blow to the already faltering project of European integration.

Next Laughland explains why “an independent Flanders [should] not, therefore, immediately apply to re-join the EU, but that instead it negotiate its own terms of association”:

All of these [EU] treaties, starting with the Treaty of Rome, provide for the vast majority of legislative power to be transferred to the EU. All new member states have to adopt the totality of the so-called acquis communautaire (more than 80,000 pages of primary legislation) and therefore any state which signs such a treaty is no longer independent in any real sense. Of course the centralisation of power will increase only further with the reform treaty, in which states will lose further powers including over immigration. That treaty, indeed, contains a “enabling clause” which allows the EU to increase its own powers indefinitely and so further centralisation is inevitable.

[…] The “Europe of the regions” model is a trap which would only make Flanders into a sort of Wallonia, the recipient of EU aid in return for political compliance in everything.

Laughland then points out that free association with the EU has previously been negotiated by Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, the UK, Denmark, and Sweden, plus most of the new member states. He concludes:

The European Union now displays all the worst characteristics of Belgium itself: an impossibly complicated institutional structure which is kept that way deliberately in order to serve vested interests; an opaque and deliberately undemocratic decision-making process; a vast system of internal financing which is used to pervert the political process by buying off certain powerful interest groups; and of course rampant corruption. By showing up the Belgian model itself as a lie, the independence of Flanders would provide a great service to democracy and to the whole of Europe. Flanders, indeed, could show the way for other countries whose people would also like to leave the EU.

If Flanders succeeds in gaining independence from Belgium, Vlaams Belang indicates that for its part, the party will oppose any effort to join the European Union as a full member state.

From Vlaams Belang’s Statement of Principles:

3. Europe

The mutual cooperation between the European peoples within a civilizational and cultural community represents a historic opportunity for peace, stability and prosperity. The party is, however, very wary and critical of the European Union, with her bureaucracy and intrusion in matters where the sovereignty of the people should take precedence. The party is also of the opinion that the territory of the European Union must not expand beyond Europe’s borders. [emphasis mine]

Homophobic Horse said...

"The mutual cooperation between the European peoples within a civilizational and cultural community represents a historic opportunity for peace, stability and prosperity."

Orwellian. In western Europe it's been like that for 60 years now more or less without the EU.

Profitsbeard said...

Friesland (northern Netherlands) is next.

They're skeptical of what their citified cousins to the south have done to the land, with rampant immigration, and are mumbling about secession.

Any free zones will be the points for the Resistence to grow from.

Where they can sing:

"Laat de Leeuw niet in zijn hempie staan!"

("Don't leave the Lion standing in his nightshirt!" Or: Stand up for our rights!)

Alexis said...

I think Flemish independence would vastly reorient the priorities of Flanders.

For a while, the European Union probably seek to isolate Flanders as much as it can; the barrier between Flanders and Wallonia may actually become a wall. Irrespective of the EU, Flanders would likely desire to stay part of NATO. Yet, the worst aspect of Flanders independence for the European Union is if Flanders ignores it entirely. Brussels bureaucrats may rather like being hated; they can't stand being ignored.

I think Flanders would look more to the ocean. I could easily imagine that a Flemish navy would be stronger than any navy Belgium ever had. An independent Flanders would also foster better relations with Dutch-speaking peoples throughout the world, especially in Suriname, South Africa, Bali, and Irian Jaya. It would also focus more diplomatic energy on seeking good relations with the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand -- commonly known as the Anglosphere. It would probably seek to position itself between Anglospheric politics and Dutch-German-Scandavian politics.

Flemish independence will require soul searching, though. How many immigrants (even conservative Christian immigrants) would Flanders want from Suriname, Aruba, or Cape Province? How expansive or insular is Flemish nationalism? These questions must be asked, for the definition of Flemish nationalism effectively defines the scope of Flemish diplomacy.

I have one warning. An independent Flanders would not only be a thorn in the EU's side, but it would likely destabilize South Africa and Indonesia. It may even destabilize Algeria! With the power of linguistic nationalism carried by Flemish independence, Flemish separatism faces more obstacles than merely the European Union.

If independence becomes real, Flanders may wish increase spending on defense and customs enforcement in order to both ensure that any immigration to Flanders is legal and to keep out any marauding army that may decide to invade.

Wimbledon Womble said...

If a Super-State that encompassed a single culture could adequately represent majority interests and defend against common threats, while supporting regional/microcultural differences, then perhaps the EU would be a welcome force. As it stands, the EU is none of these things.

The EU appears bent upon merging Europe with the Arab world, magnifying threats to the lives and well-being of Europeans, working to bring about changes opposed by a majority of Europeans (i.e. accommodation to a "minority" verging on imposition sharia) and erasing all regional differences within Europe. The EU's political (possibly future military) ambitions are also tempered to a large degree on becoming a force powerful enough to oppose the US. This is ironic, since the US is the best friend Europe ever had, despite that Europe has always treated the US shabbily.

Europe is more microculturally diverse and does not have the same unifying history (or myth of origin, if you will) that the US has. Any attempt to compete with the US by building a parallel, though fundamentally inorganic, federal structure seems doomed to failure.

A united Europe needs to find another, looser way to proceed, throwing out all the preconceived notions of the absurd bureaucracy, uniformity-obsessed Statism, pro-Arabism and stupid anti-Americanism that now characterizes it.

Baron Bodissey said...

A united Europe needs to find another, looser way to proceed, throwing out all the preconceived notions of the absurd bureaucracy, uniformity-obsessed Statism, pro-Arabism and stupid anti-Americanism that now characterizes it.

Finding a new pardigm will be difficult. THe EU seems to be built on the UN model, with the same lack of accountability or transparency.

The anti-Americanism, esp. as espoused by de Gaulle, led to the eventual creation of not the EU but Eurabia... perhaps it is not EU itself, but Eurabia that is the problem. There would still be problems -- the menacing of Europe by Iran, Russia's desire to return to the old glory, etc., but it would not be the current downward spiral that exists now.

It's so sad.

[Dymphna, using the Baron's computer. Shh! Don't tell him.]

X said...

The idea of a united europe doesn't work. People look at Europe and tend to see a homogenous mass, especially from a distance - but they're all wrong. For starters there's the split that defines Belgian politics, and has been underneath much of discussion recently. North of the line between Wallonia and Flanders the land is germanic and south it's frankish. There's more than that, though. The germanic lands are split in to high and low germany, defined by the point where the language changes from high german to low german. England, scandanavia, most of the low coutries are low german. The germanic kingdoms, parts of France, austria and such are high german... there's the Roman kingdoms and the free german tribes. This doesn't even begin to account for the massive cultural differences between western and eastern europe.

The only way Europe could unite would be under a federal system that left the majority of power with the member states. However, a federal system would not last long in teh face of the bitter rivalries that exist between European nations and would inevitably fall apart. The alternative is to do what they're doing now and smash the state in order to replace it with a bigger state.

Europe will only be truly "united" on a commercial level. Trade unites far more than politics, so the best solution would be the free trade area that they claimed the EEC would provide. We have such a free trade area in the EFTA, and Flanders could join that if it wished to have the advantages of trade with EU members without the problem of EU interference. Being in the EFTA would also allow it to trade internationally without being forced to comply with EU edicts and tarrifs and trade barriers. Flanders has all the belgian ports in its territory so it will have no trouble with international trade, unless the EU decides to blockade one of the biggest ports in Europe.

If the newly liberated Flemish are sensible, they' opt to join the EFTA, and if they do that it may well prompt other nations to follow suite.

Anonymous said...

Don't just debate. Show your opinion online by voting YES to Free Europe Constitution at!

Unknown said...

Interesting indeed... NATO bombed Serbia in order to split Kosovo from her and to ensure the ethnic cleansing of the Serbs from this province. Under the nose of KFOR churches were burnt, civilians slaughtered etc.
What will they - NATO - do if Flanders decides to split from Eurabia proper?


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Tag Archives: darnell brisco

The Doubters Have Been Silenced: Season 6 is Here

Episode #1 “Melted Butter and Brown Sugar” (4/6/08): America’s most truthful radio program returns with Thomas Bush, Darnell Brisco, Chris Faris and special guest Dave Pommer.

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Gather Round Children West Presents: Season 5, Episode 1

Episode #1 “Out With the New, In With the Old” (10/9/07): The radio show is back! And 55% as good as it used to be! Hey just kidding everybody. I’m Gabe Durham and I endorse this radio show. Segments include: “New intro: from the gates of hell,” better off without Gabe, Darnell in Vegas, “Can’t Be Seen In Public,” your game is weak, “The Race For Your Heart (Take Me to the Formal),” married dumb friends, Tom = engaged and then unengaged, “Married Friends Are Gone (sad),” “Married Friends Are Gone (happy).”

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Palm Springs Gay Wedding Palm Springs Gay Wedding
This Palm Springs gay wedding in an inspiration! You will love what Philip and Ryan created for their big day. Read about their love... Palm Springs Gay Wedding

This Palm Springs gay wedding in an inspiration! You will love what Philip and Ryan created for their big day.

Read about their love story here:

How did you fall in love and become engaged?

Our love story is quite cute. We had known each other for about two years before we started dating, but we were in two different places in life, but then time aligned, and we were inseparable. We went on one date and that was it. We completed each other in such a way that was exactly what the other needed. It was perfect and our fondness of each other has turned into the love we have today. We got engaged in Malibu on the 3rd anniversary of our first date. Philip has an obsession with the number three, so he felt it was appropriate to propose on the bluffs of Malibu overlooking the Pacific Ocean.

What inspired your wedding?

We wanted a sophisticated classic event. We really wanted to throw a grand party for all the people we love. We wanted elements of glamour and grace, and beauty in the details.Johnson_Omeara_Christine_Arnold_Photography_PR314150035_low

What colors/themes/diy/handmade elements did you include on your wedding day? How did Artisan help?

Our color pallet was grey, cream, white, ivory, tan and a pop of yellow. Our wedding party wore outfits that evoked their own wedding style and personality. We had all the ladies in the wedding party wear birdcage veils. Being that we were two grooms, we loved the idea of them looking like brides. It was our way of paying homage to a traditional wedding. All of the guest menus were personalized with the guest’s names or nicknames, which turned out to be a great touch for our guests. The most important handmade elements from the wedding were the men’s pocket squares as well as the bouquet ribbons. They were created from the satin and lace of Philip’s mothers wedding dress. She passed away last July. It was a way to keep her spirit present during the wedding day.Johnson_Omeara_Christine_Arnold_Photography_PR314150082_low

Artisan Event Floral Decor was an amazing addition to our wedding. Not only did they plan a flawless wedding tailored to our needs, they created the most gorgeous table scape and flower arrangements.

What was your favorite part of your wedding day?

(Philip) My favorite part of the day was hearing Ryan say his vows. His words were so perfect and exactly what you want to hear on your wedding day.

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Why did you choose Palm Springs as your wedding destination?

We visit Palm Springs often. It is a nice place for us to escape and relax. Also, being in the field of interior design, we love the inspiration Palm Springs has to offer. We would love to eventually have a home in Palm Springs.

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Photographer:  Christine Arnold Photography//Event Planner: Artisan Event Floral Decor//Floral Designer: Artisan Event Floral Decor//Invitation Designer:Champagne Press//DJ:Music Media Entertainment//Tuxedo and Mens Attire: Suitsupply//Accomodations:The Viceroy Palm Springs//

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(Little Loves 15) *No 24*

Happy Friday everyone!
And thanks for coming along and reading my Little Loves for this week!As I said last post I was about to have a manic weekend and it certainly was!
I was exhausted by Sunday night (Fair, Ball, Panto Rehearsals) and then of course Little B had an awful night sleep and by 4am on Monday morning i was sitting on his bedroom floor in tears.
Anyways onwards and upwards as i thought for a busy work week and this weekend onto
2 performances at Kop Hill Climb (a vintage car event local to us) and more panto reherasals)

I finished ‘To Kill A Mockingbird’
Horray I hear you all cheer, only took about 4 months!
By the end though I was glued to it and couldn’t put it down.
I could have sworn I read it years ago but you know what I remembered nothing!
Either I really didn’t pay attention in English or I’ve got it completely wrong!

IMG_9327 So now the first chapter of ‘Go Set A Watchman’ has been read and I’m eager to get into that!

Lots of You Tube Videos as I tried to find some music for our show next March.  Think this may be a common activity until all is chosen-we are doing a selection of stories so lots to find!
This being one of them that we are using for a dance I’ve started with my adults.
It got me all excited thinking of costumes and how i wanted it all to look.

A fab live band last Saturday night at a ball with friends!
They played a real selection of music including some numbers that reminded me of my teenage years
(like this one …… N-Trance-Set You Free) and we danced all night!

I got all dressed up for the ball, a maxi dress and heels (that turned to flip flops rather quickly) and my hair all curly (and blue)
but apart from that it’s been a few of my new long sleeved loose fitting tops I’ve recently brought
that are so comfortable yet look quite smart!

Chicken breasts and butternut squash with chilli, oregano, nutmeg and a little double cream.
So simple, so quick and so tasty!

And Lastly

Theres been a lot going on over the last few weeks and this quote has kept me going!
Keep remembering that its all breathtakingly beautiful!

Thanks for reading x

I’m linking up with all the lovely bloggers for their LittleLoves

7 thoughts on “(Little Loves 15) *No 24*

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I’m happy to announce that the sixth Immortal novel will be available SOON. I’m currently in the middle of rewrites that I hope to wrap up by the end of this month. Look for an announcement of a firm release date in this space in the next couple of weeks, along with (maybe) a peek at the book’s prologue.

The book’s title is Immortal: Last Call, and here’s a look at the cover!

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There are several foundations of physics.

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/ Benjamin Warfield / Barry York

Pastoral Care Statement to a Congregation

What if you had a brochure, membership class lesson, or church webpage that explained to people the type of pastoral care they could expect to receive when attending your congregation?  Here is my attempt at what such an explanation by a Presbyterian congregation might contain.

Our congregation wants to provide pastoral care for you, whether this is your first visit with us or you are a longtime member of the church.  What do we mean by “pastoral care?”
**_Pastoral Care Defined_**
When one hears the word “pastoral,” they often think of the minister of the church.  Though the idea of pastoral care includes the work of the minister, we mean more by this term than only what the pastor does.  The word pastor comes from French and Latin words for shepherd and shepherding.  In English, we use the word “pasture” similarly.  Just as sheep (a common Biblical metaphor for Christians) are protected and fed by shepherds, so the people of God are to be watched over and nurtured.  The chief Shepherd of the church is the Lord Jesus Christ (Psalm 23; John 10:11; Hebrews 13:20), who calls upon spiritual leaders in each generation to care for His people by teaching them the Word of God, building them up in their faith and service to Christ, and even being willing to bring the Spirit’s correction to them if they go astray.
The importance of pastoral care is seen in the very name of our church.
**_Pastoral Care is in Our Name_**
The word Presbyterian in our name comes from a word meaning “elder.” God has appointed spiritual leaders to oversee or care for His church. As Paul told the elders of the church at Ephesus, “Be on guard for yourselves and for all the flock, among which the Holy Spirit has made you overseers, to shepherd the church of God which He purchased with His own blood” (Acts 20:28).  Unlike some of the churches today that use the name Presbyterian, we have chosen men for elders who are spiritually minded and biblically sound to shepherd our congregation.  The Bible makes the distinction that there are two types of elders: _teaching elders _who are formally trained and are employed full-time in teaching and discipleship; and _ruling elders _who are men who work in the community but give of their time to care for the flock of God (I Timothy 5:17-18).  All the elders have godly character and are managing their own homes well as the Scriptures require (I Timothy 3:1-7).  The elders are not to lord over the church, but shepherd the people so that all will follow Jesus as the true King of the church (I Peter 5:1-6).
This shepherding begins with the elders watching over each other's lives carefully, knowing the impact that will have on the congregation.
**_Pastoral Care Starts with the Leadership_**
As we saw above, Paul told the elders of Ephesus, “Be on guard for _yourself_ and for all the flock...”  Leaders of the church will have to give an account for their shepherding of God’s people on the great Day of Judgment (Hebrews 13:17; James 3:1).  Thus, they must first encourage one another and hold each other accountable to righteousness.  We have what is called "a plurality of elders," which means we have several men who are set over the church to oversee it, for no one man is capable of self-accountability and individually leading the people of God.  We regularly review one another’s work, and have opened up our hearts and lives to one another for examination and even correction.  Another facet of being Presbyterian means that we are formally connected to a larger body of like-minded churches.  Our work as elders is regularly reviewed by a regional association of churches known as the Presbytery to make sure we are following God’s Word in caring for His people.
What Dr. Benjamin Warfield told a gathering of ministers over a century ago still holds true for pastors as well as for elders. "Aptness to teach alone does not make a minster; nor is it his primary qualification. It is only one of a long list of requirements which Paul lays down as necessary to meet in him who aspires to this high office. And all the rest concern, not his intellectual, but his spiritual fitness. A minister must be learned, on pain of being utterly incompetent for his work. But before and above being learned, a minister must be godly.”  As a Puritan pastor Richard Baxter once said more succinctly, “A holy calling will not save an unholy man.”
So we give pastoral care to the leadership to encourage holiness, but it does not stop there.
**_Pastoral Care Extends to the Entire Congregation_**
Again, in Acts 20:28 Paul also told the elders to guard the flock, for the church was purchased with Christ’s blood and He appointed by the Holy Spirit the elders to shepherd it. Our church is a family, and we need to care for one another (Matthew 12:49-50; I Timothy 5:1-2).  How then is this pastoral care worked out in the congregation’s life?  How will you be cared for in this congregation? Primarily in three ways:
**_You will be prayed for and fed the Word of God.  _**As elders, we have a primary and sacred duty to ensure you and your family are supported in prayer and nurtured in the Bible (John 21:15-17; Acts 6:4).  We will do this by offering faithful preaching from the pulpit; devotion to prayer in our worship for the needs of the church; regular encouragements to grow in the Word through Bible studies, family worship, and helpful seminars; inviting you to elders meetings for counsel and prayer during important junctures in your life; and placing you in elder-led shepherding groups where you will be regularly contacted and cared for.
**_You will be regularly hosted by an elder or visited in your home.  _**Historically, the church has watched over God’s people in part by the elders visiting members of the congregation in their homes or inviting them to their own home to encourage God's people in Christ and to see if there are any needs the people of God might have.  On a regular basis, our elders have the practice of visiting with you and asking you questions such as the following:
1.  How are you doing personally, relationally, and professionally? Are there any personal or family matters you would like to share with the elders for prayer and consultation?
2.  Review for us your practice in personal and family worship.
3.  Describe your relationship to others in the church. Are there any unresolved conflicts you have with another brother or sister?  Is there a way we could assist you in restoring relationships?
4.  In what capacity or areas do you believe that God has called you to serve Him in His kingdom? Are there ways we as elders can help you accomplish what God has called you to do?
5.  In the last year, what areas in the life of the church have you been particularly thankful for? Are there any areas of concern that you have?
6.  Has the Lord put anything else on your heart to discuss with the elders?
We also will visit you in times of need and trouble, and, as Jesus' under-shepherds, seek to walk with you through the valleys of this life (Psalm 23:4).
**_You will be equipped for ministry and service.  _**We believe each person who trusts in Christ for salvation is a special member of the body of Christ.  He or she has been given gifts to use in the life and ministry of the church (I Corinthians 12:12-20; Ephesians 4:11-16).  Part of our duty to you is to help you see your gifts and how to offer them in service with others for Christ’s kingdom, as we are all called to offer care for one another.  That is why we want to know you more fully, so we can encourage you in your discipleship walk with Christ.  Often we help folks in our congregation find mentoring relationships where they can be trained in their service to God.
If you have any questions about our pastoral care or any other matter, please speak to the pastor or one of the elders!  We are here to serve you.
Barry York

Barry York

Sinner by Nature - Saved by Grace. Husband of Miriam - Grateful for Privilege. Father of Six - Blessed by God. President of RPTS - Serve with Thankfulness. Author - Hitting the Marks.

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By George Friedman

A recession in the United States is likely to come in the next two years. It is difficult to determine when a recession will occur based solely on economic activity. Economists argue about the precursors to a recession as a matter of course. I am not making the case that one will happen because I believe I am competent to enter that debate. Rather, I am making the case that one is increasingly likely simply by looking at the frequency with which they occur.

The last recession started in 2007 and ended in 2009. The one before that started and ended in 2001. The two previous recessions ran from 1990 to 1991 and from 1981 to 1982. In these cases, the time between the end of one recession and the start of another was about eight years on average. Between 1945 and 1981, recessions were much more frequent, but obviously something has happened to extend the time between them.

Newspapers are seen for sale at a newsstand Sept. 16, 2008 in New York City. The previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 4.4 percent or 504 points, the worst single-day loss since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Eight years have now passed since the last recession, and the U.S. is in the zone for one based on its experience since 1980. A recession is likely sometime between now and 2019. It is always possible that we will set a new post-war record for expansion, but that is unlikely simply because periodic recessions are necessary. During expansions, economies tend to accumulate inefficiencies. Low interest rates allow businesses to survive despite their inefficiency, and this will continue if a recession does not occur. In the current expansion, we have had extraordinarily low interest rates, so even with relatively low growth rates, pruning is needed.

Recessions are unpleasant and hurt some people disproportionately. However, the U.S. recession will likely hurt other countries more than the United States. When combined with other global economic problems, the recession will likely weaken Europe’s anemic recovery and strike another blow at the Chinese. It will also put further downward pressure on commodity prices, considering that the United States is the world’s largest importer and has been, to some extent, the engine stabilizing the international system.

The 2007-09 recession hurt the Chinese tremendously because their biggest export customers were the United States and Europe. In due course, the Chinese slowdown cut China’s consumption of industrial commodities, including oil, hitting countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia. This is part of the global exporters’ crisis I have written about previously. The United States avoided the worst of this because, while it is the second-largest exporter in the world, exports account for only about 12.6 percent of its GDP (the U.S. ranks only 161st in the world in terms of exports as a percent of GDP, according to the World Bank). In part, this lack of dependence on exports helped U.S. GDP grow on its internal engine. More important is that the U.S. is less vulnerable to global downturns than other countries.

The decline in the U.S. economy will inevitably involve a drop in U.S. imports. Under normal circumstances, this slump would not destabilize the system. But we have not been living under normal circumstances since 2008. More precisely, we are now living in a new normal. In the new normal, countries that were driven by exports are now using diminished export demand to simply maintain their economies in the hopes of generating enough domestic demand to replace lost markets. In most cases, they have achieved a fairly precarious balance at this point that is much more subject to destabilization than in previous cycles. A relatively small drop in global demand can have a substantial impact. Thus, a routine U.S. recession will lead to a small global decline, reversing gains in stabilization made in recent years.

The downturn in export demand will have a ripple effect because exporting countries are also importing countries. As American demand contracts, exporters’ economies will be affected and their need for imports will contract as well. This domino effect is normal. The problem is that the international system’s vulnerability has grown dramatically because many countries have become excessively reliant on exports, and this has been accompanied by a general weakness in their domestic economies. Therefore, the ripple effect, while not a tidal wave, will be more substantial than would have been the case before 2008.

The most significant vulnerable countries will be the exporters of manufactured products and industrial commodities, particularly oil. The Chinese and the Germans are the most important examples, given that they are the world’s second- and fourth-largest economies. The Chinese have reduced their reliance on exports as a percent of GDP to some extent, but they remain heavily dependent. They have decreased their dependence by increasing domestic consumption, but this has also led to a decline in their growth rate target to what China claims is a sustainable 6.5 percent a year. A drop in exports would make even this target harder to hit and would limit China’s ability to build domestic demand by contracting exports too quickly.

However, Germany’s export dependence has always troubled us the most. With 46.8 percent of its GDP derived from exports and its banking system in an extraordinarily weak position, Germany needs a stable export base. With the Middle East in chaos and suffering from low oil prices, as are the Russians, Germany’s export purchasers are the Europeans, the Chinese and the Americans. If the appetite for German exports in the U.S. and China declines, it will also affect Germany’s European partners. Thus, the Germans would have trouble maintaining their export rates in the face of a U.S. recession.

A U.S. recession would also put heavy pressure on oil prices. The Saudi-Russian attempt to raise oil prices has pretty much failed. The price of oil is now subject to market forces rather than any concerted action by oil exporters. Historically, as oil prices fell, industrial production increased. That is no longer the case because the problem now is finding customers at any price, not keeping production costs low. Lower oil prices might solve a few problems for exporters of manufactured goods, but they create massive problems for oil exporters.

The most important consequence of this contraction will be on internal social and political forces. A European recession over the next couple of years would increase the pain in southern Europe and likely spread it north. This would strengthen those challenging the European political elites and increase the demand for protectionism. It would present a challenge to the EU and bolster the idea that the flow of goods without any national controls exposes all countries to the consequences of systemic failure. The argument will be that, if the system is failing, remaining part of the system makes little sense.

In China, where political stabilization has been imposed by a dictatorship, the dictator’s credibility will be questioned if Chinese growth rates continue to fall. President Xi Jinping has promised the Chinese a graceful transition from an export-focused economy to one driven by internal demand. To do this, he must control social and political challenges, and maintain a careful and shifting balance between exports and domestic growth. A sudden buckling of exports would make this difficult.

As for Russia and Saudi Arabia, should oil prices be stuck below $50 a barrel, the pressure on these countries’ economies will increase. Both will try to manage their regional interests in the face of deepening internal challenges. The credibility of these regimes depends on their ability to maintain a degree of well-being appropriate to their historical patterns. Those patterns will be difficult to preserve.

The United States will suffer in this situation, but it will not face fundamental crises. However, a recession in the next two years would happen during Donald Trump’s presidency. The American public tends to hold presidents responsible for the economy, even though they have no control over what happens. Therefore, a recession would place Trump in a difficult political position moving toward the 2020 election. The United States would not be as exposed as export-dependent nations, but the political repercussions would require Trump to have established a solid and stable political base by the recession’s onset.

I have no econometric model predicting a recession, although I am not sure that these models have been consistently effective predictors. Rather, I am noting that we are eight years from the last recession, and 10 years has been the longest period between recessions. The precursors to a depression – such as irrational exuberance of asset classes, rising interest rates, a negative yield curve and proclamations that “this time, it’s different” – have at most been modestly appearing. But the clock is ticking. We may set new records on this expansion, but I find it much more likely that a necessary cyclical recession will take place within the next two years. And I am arguing that this time it will be different, in the sense that even a relatively mild U.S. recession will have global implications.

George Friedman

George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures.

Dr. Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. His most recent book, THE STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, 2020 describes how “the United States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.” The decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.

His most popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages.

Dr. Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media. For almost 20 years before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University.


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Business Directory

Keep it Local! Find and support local businesses by using our directory. All GETBA members are entitled to a complimentary directory listing, if you are an East Tamaki business but not listed, complete this form and send to

Apollo Motor Homes

5 Greenmount Drive East Tamaki Auckland
09 253 9542
Contact: Eben Naidoo , Factory Manager

Ash Air N.Z Ltd

16 Highbrook Drive East Tamaki Auckland
09 580 6800 Visit website
Contact: Scott Shackleton , Branch Manager
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Ash Air is a privately owned NZ supplier of air compressors, vacuum pumps, blowers and full mobile service

Auckland Mobile Scaffolding

375 East Tamaki Road Unit 5 East Tamaki Auckland
0800472233 Visit website
Contact: Brooke Hanson , Director
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Do you need to hire an aluminium Mobile Scaffolding tower ? We are Mobile Scaffolding specialists and provide Mobile Scaffolding tower solutions throughout greater Auckland. Auckland Mobile Scaffolding specializes in providing tough, sturdy, lightweight aluminium Mobile Scaffolding towers and can help with your fixed Scaffolding requirements to cover your Scaffolding needs. Our service and support is second to none when it comes to providing the safest, most reliable Mobile Scaffolding you can get. For more information & a free no obligation quotation call Auckland Mobile Scaffolding on 0800 4 SCAFF (72233) or visit us at

Bargain Rental Cars

30 Springs Road Unit A East Tamaki Auckland
0800001122 Visit website
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When you hire a car from Bargain Rental Cars, you are supporting a 100% New Zealand owned and operated, family business. You will always be provided with a personal service that ensures you get a car rental that is not only a pleasure to drive, but gives you value for money. Whether you are planning a holiday, a business trip, are visiting family, going on a school or sports trip or any activity throughout NZ, we have a quality, competitively priced rental car for your needs.

Coffee Biz NZ Ltd

6 Polaris Place Unit B East Tamaki Auckland
0800 483 634 Visit website
Contact: Darren Minogue , Director
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NZ Specialists in coffee vending machines and wholesale consumables. NZ owned and operated company that imports and distributes coffee vending machines.

Cool Breeze Rentals

32 Barmac Place Unit 2 East Tamaki Auckland
0508 885 188 Visit website
Contact: Brian Matila , Branch Manager
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Cool Breeze Rentals New Zealand is open for business from our East Tamaki Office and are pleased to introduce our Services and Products available to the Greater East Tamaki Business Association (GETBA) Members. We have been operating in Australia for 17 years with offices in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, currently servicing a range of segments including HVAC, Mechanical Services, Flood Restoration and Major Events. We provide the delivery and installation of Portable Air Conditioning, Mobile Evaporative Coolers, Dehumidifiers, Ventilation and Heating equipment for hire and sale into; • Factories • Warehouses • Offices • Computer Rooms • Aged and Health Care • Universities and Education Facilities • Events, Parties and more…… As part of our introduction to the New Zealand Market, we are currently holding a Pre- Summer Sale on both new and used equipment held at our East Tamaki Warehouse. To learn more about our products and services please contact the Cool Breeze team on 0508 885 188 or for our current Product Catalogues and Hire Pricing.

Digital Signs Ltd

1 Highbrook Drive Unit C East Tamaki Auckland
0274 715734 Visit website
Contact: Dave Jaques , Director
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DIGITAL SIGNS will provide you with all you need to do just this with vibrant HD indoor/outdoor LED SIGNAGE, fixed or portable. We offer fully serviced long-term leases or rent-to-buy options in a customisable range of sizes, portable or fixed. Contact Us to see how we can help.

8 Business Parade South Level 1 East Tamaki Auckland
09 250 3361 Visit website
Contact: Mark Spring
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Hire our audio, conference equpment, data projectors, dvds, furniture, televisions, video, whiteware

Eastern Rentals 2011 Ltd

2 Trugood Drive East Tamaki Auckland
09 274 8822 Visit website
Contact: Igor Kozlov , Managing Director
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If you need a cost effective rental vehicle for business or pleasure call us

First Linen Hire

21 Lorien Place Unit F East Tamaki Auckland
09 272 3257
Contact: Paul Wong , Director


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Exploring The Mental Benefits of Cold Therapy

Regularly embracing the cold is not just a ‘biohack’ that may benefit our physical health. It also has impressive impacts on mental health. When approached in the right way, cold exposure is a small practice that can have sweeping implications across all aspects of our life. Read on to learn more about the mental benefits of cold thermogenesis.

Why Humans Need Cold Exposure: An Evolutionary Case for Cold Therapy

Cold thermogenesis is hot! In case you haven’t noticed, cold showers, ice baths and ice tubs have become the routine de jour of biohackers, athletes, and celebrities alike. The list of potential health benefits is enticing, but there is a deeper reason why your body needs cold exposure. In the first part of this three-part series, we’ll explore the evolutionary case for cold therapy and evaluate if cold training can be the key to unlocking primordial stores of vitality, strength and health.

Why You’re Stress Eating, Plus Free and Simple Ways to Stop (That Don’t Involve Food)

During times of stress, many of us find ourselves coping with unhealthy food—whether that's reaching for the potato chips more often than usual or upgrading dessert from a weekly indulgence to a daily one. Maybe you feel like your jeans—okay, your sweatpants—are feeling a little tighter, and you can't help but wonder: "Why can't I stop eating?" Read on to learn the science behind food cravings and the three physiological reactions causing you to stress-eat, plus simple and free ways to stop stress-eating that have nothing to do with food at all.

In Case of Fire, Break Glass: 3 Evidenced-Based Keys to Managing Stress

It's March, 2020 and the Coronavirus has spread like wildfire across the world. Hundreds of thousands of people have been infected, the global economy is crashing and our national and local governments are escalating their measures to contain the virus and “flatten the curve”. This is certainly a frightening and stressful time. When we're forced to come face to face with our thoughts and fears, how can we cope with the stress? What really works in a time of global crisis and pandemic? Read on to learn about the three most research-backed stress management tools.

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Why I Hate to Meditate, But Do It Anyway

Meditation doesn’t stop distracting thoughts, or negative thoughts, or unhelpful thoughts. It doesn’t let me “control my thoughts,” whatever that would mean. Meditation is just an awareness tool. And mental awareness is the first step toward finding more self-determination to do what I really want. Real self-determination isn’t possible when you’re being ceaselessly pushed and pulled by little goblins in your head who readily manipulate your emotions but whose existence you won’t acknowledge.

What No One Tells You About Meditation

Because of its proven benefits on everything from sleep to productivity, focus, mood, and stress reduction, meditation is quickly becoming the daily practice of Marines, pro-athletes and world-class performers in all fields. Although meditation is one of the fastest growing health trends, its fundamentals—what it is, what it does and how to do it —remain ill-defined. Learn the top three misconceptions about meditation so you can start your own practice with knowledge, confidence, and clear expectations.

Natural Stress Management Techniques You Can Use Today

Stress. It’s one of those joys in life we all experience, and simultaneously love to hate. In times of pressure—like before a work deadline or during the heat of competition—stress can push us to perform at our peak. But when not managed properly, it can build up over time and do some serious damage to our mental and physical health.

What Is A Leaky Brain And How Do You Fix It?

Just like your GI tract has a protective barrier protecting it from its surroundings, your brain has its own casing that protects it from your body and bloodstream. It’s called the blood-brain barrier (BBB). And, just like you can get a leaky gut, you can also get a leaky brain.

Nootropics and Smart Drugs: What’s the Difference?

Think for a moment how much visual, auditory, and sensory information you’re exposed to and required to process every single day. Learn about how smart drugs and nootropics can boost cognitive function and enhance brain efficiency.


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What's the Plan, Stan? has suggestions for teaching and learning programmes for students in years 4–8, focusing on emergency events and the impacts they could have on your community.

Local and historical impacts

Emergency events can have and have had big impacts on your community. Guide students in exploring natural disasters in New Zealand and the emergency events that are most likely to happen in their area — and why they happen.

Find ideas and resources about the impacts of emergency events.

Explaining emergency events

To examine the effects of natural emergency events, students need to have some understanding of how those events occur — and why. Find ideas and resources for teaching students about the science of different emergency events.

Find ideas and resources about emergency events.

Let's get ready

Understanding the impacts of an emergency and what to do before, during and after an emergency event can help you get through. Teach students about impacts and preparedness and the individual and family, school, community and government level.

Find ideas and resources about preparedness.

Resources for teachers

Once you've looked at our other ideas and resources, check out our list of other helpful resources for teaching students years 4–8 about different emergency events and how to be prepared.

Find resources about different emergencies and how to be prepared.