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Friday, October 17, 2014

US Department of Defense: Climate Change will intensify the challenges of global instability...

Sou | 6:13 PM Go to the first of 23 comments. Add a comment

"Climate change will affect the Department of Defense's ability to defend the Nation and poses immediate risks to U.S. national security."

US Department of Defense, October 2014.

In a case of denialists linking to denialists linking to denialists linking to denialists... A retweet by Anthony Watts alerted me to an article at Climate Depot, which was a repost of an article by the HockeySchtick, which was a repost of an irrational and scatty article at the Wall Street Journal.

From there I went to Google, which took me to a climate website, Bellona.org, which linked to a climate change plan from the US Department of Defense.

2014 Climate Adaptation Roadmap

The US Department of Defense has released its 2014 Climate Adaptation Roadmap. It lists three goals:
  • Goal 1: Identify and assess the effects of climate change on the Department.
  • Goal 2: Integrate climate change considerations across the Department and manage associated risks.
  • Goal 3: Collaborate with internal and external stakeholders on climate change challenges.

The document lists four lines of effort to support those three goals:
  1. Plans and Operations include the activities dedicated to preparing for and carrying out the full range of military operations. Also included are the operating environments in the air, on land, and at sea, at home and abroad, that shape the development of plans and execution of operations.
  2. Training and Testing are critical to maintaining a capable and ready Force in the face of a rapidly changing strategic setting. Access to land, air, and sea space that replicate the operational environment for training and testing is essential to readiness.
  3. Built and Natural Infrastructure are both necessary for successful mission preparedness and readiness. While built infrastructure serves as the staging platform for the Department’s national defense and humanitarian missions, natural infrastructure also supports military combat readiness by providing realistic combat conditions and vital resources to personnel.
  4. Acquisition and Supply Chain include the full range of developing, acquiring, fielding, and sustaining equipment and services and leveraging technologies and capabilities to meet the Department’s current and future needs, including requirements analysis.

Climate change multiplies threats

The introduction to the report states that the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict will be intensified by climate change:
Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict. They will likely lead to food and water shortages, pandemic disease, disputes over refugees and resources, and destruction by natural disasters in regions across the globe.
In our defense strategy, we refer to climate change as a “threat multiplier” because it has the potential to exacerbate many of the challenges we are dealing with today – from infectious disease to terrorism. We are already beginning to see some of these impacts.
A changing climate will have real impacts on our military and the way it executes its missions. The military could be called upon more often to support civil authorities, and provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the face of more frequent and more intense natural disasters. Our coastal installations are vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased flooding, while droughts, wildfires, and more extreme temperatures could threaten many of our training activities. Our supply chains could be impacted, and we will need to ensure our critical equipment works under more extreme weather conditions. Weather has always affected military operations, and as the climate changes, the way we execute operations may be altered or constrained.
While scientists are converging toward consensus on future climate projections, uncertainty remains. But this cannot be an excuse for delaying action. Every day, our military deals with global uncertainty. Our planners know that, as military strategist Carl von Clausewitz wrote, “all action must, to a certain extent, be planned in a mere twilight.”

You can download the DoD document here. It's quite short - only twenty pages.

  1. The right wing in the US has typically treated the military as a group which can do no wrong (in contrast with the rest of government, which can never do anything right). With so much overlap between the deniers and right-wing fanatics, I'm really curious how the deniers will comment on reports like this (my guess: they'll say it was pushed on them by their liberal civilian overlords). Last I heard (wish I had a reference), there was a move in Congress to prohibit the Defense Department from studying or commenting on climate change. -- Dennis

    1. I suspect that the house will stage a hearing soon enough, one that berates the portion of the Pentagon which works on the analysis of climate change as a threat multiplier. Back in May they had an amendment to a spending bill which was supposed to prevent the Pentagon from spending any money of climate change preparations.

    2. I think Rattus is right. We can look to presidential elections in the US for examples of the infinitely elastic and adaptable ability of ideological romantics here to build a story leading to an easy, comfortably conformist decision. John McCain and Sarah Palin somehow were made to fit together inside the same voter skulls, a feat seemingly impossible until it happened.

      So the story will be along the general lines of "this is just ambitious officers responding to suggestion from Obama political appointees," a kind of magic cognitive incantation that can engulf and hide any number of uncomfortable facts no matter how large or pointy.

    3. McCarthy's fall from grace was swift when he turned on the US Army. Just saying :)

  2. Judith Curry's response to the Pentagon?

    She thinks they are "deniers."

    " I would call them extreme weather deniers – they seem to be in denial that these are caused naturally."

    Judith Curry's comment

    [Sou: I've replaced the direct link with link to comment in archived web page]

    1. Judith is talking through her hat again. It's a nonsense comment.

      She can't have read the New York Times article let alone the DoD planning document. It was not solely focused on extreme events. It was about climate change in general and what is happening now and what will happen in the future as a result, and how DoD is planning to ready itself for this.

      Deniers focus on extreme events because they are, by definition, rare. Therefore it is difficult to attribute between AGW and random chance (natural variation) - but not impossible eg with extreme heat events. I have to add, too, much of what used to be considered extreme in the past isn't extreme any more and will be even less so in the future - as new normal overtakes new normal overtakes new normal.

  3. Rattus -

    It will be interesting to watch Republican legislators turn themselves in to pretzels as out of one side of their mouth they call Democrats terrorist appeasers for not supporting the Pentagon's risk assessments that call for military funding for weapons, and then turn around to denounce the Pentagon's risk assessment calling for spending to address climate change.

    1. You're right, Joshua. The conservatives are already doing that. They've decided they know better than the military about what poses threats. At the moment it's ISIS/ISIL or whatever. Conservatives think they can pick and choose. It's all black and white. If there is one threat there cannot be any other threat - in their limited mind.

      The DoD risk assessment of climate change is in the context of civil unrest and wars, and ongoing military activities, and how climate change affects military installations, in addition to how armed forces are called upon to assist in humanitarian efforts. It's across the board.

  4. 2:50 AM anonymous -

    ==> "I'm really curious how the deniers will comment on reports like this..."

    Dude. It seems that you are mistakenly thinking that there's any reason they will be troubled by hypocrisy.

  5. "US Department of Defense: Climate Change will intensify the challenges of global instability"

    I am amazed that this gets any credibility at all.

    The whole organization's level of funding and very existence depends upon sounding the alarm bells over the next potential enemy and the next great crisis.

    They were wrong on Vietnam, they were wrong on Afghanistan, they were wrong on Iraq, they are wrong on Iran, they are wrong on Palestine, they are wrong on Syrian rebels...... etc...etc...etc...

    But you think they might have this one right?

    1. Most wars are political decisions, aren't they? Eg I always thought that the Iraq invasion was mainly Cheney egging on Bush. It wasn't supported by intelligence reports AFAIK.

      As to whether Chuck Hagel is a better SecDef than his predecessors, time will tell I guess. The advisory committee on climate change has representation from all the defense services.

      The four phenomena identified in the DoD plan aren't the subject of any scientific debate. They are already happening. The plan lists them as:

      - Rising global temperatures - the evidence for that is plain and clear

      - Changing precipitation patterns - that's already happening

      - Increasing frequency or intensity of extreme weather events - some has already been observed

      - Rising sea levels and associated storm surge. Sea levels are rising, meaning storm surges are worse. This will continue as the ice continues to melt.

    2. Rising temperatures, yes and recent.
      Rising sea levels, yes and longer term.

      But surely from a scientific observational viewpoint very little can be said regarding changes in frequency or intensity of extreme weather events, or of changes in precipitation patterns. I am glad you did not mention frequency/intensity of wildfires; which is possibly the worst metric ever employed for any purpose.

    3. The literature includes papers showing heat waves, drought and floods influenced by human-caused warming. Do you need references or can you look it up yourself? Some of this has been discussed here at HotWhopper on various occasions. For example.

      Then there are the annual BAMS supplements on extreme events. Here is a link to the latest:

      Re wildfires, you are probably confusing fire management and response with the increasingly dangerous fire risk days. Wildfires are and will continue to be a greater threat, especially in places like south eastern Australia, California and probably Greece and Spain, among other places. I agree it's difficult to extricate some things about wildfires, but catastrophic fire danger days is one metric that has been used.

      Where I live we've had three huge fires since 2003, burning probably a larger area than was burnt in the preceding century.

      I've written about fires before too. For example:

    4. Thanks for the links Sou. I have read up on these topics quite frequently, we have all debated them quite frequently, and my position (having sought statistical differences between multiple treatments/situations in other fields) remains that stating a certain series of weather events significantly differs from an earlier series of weather events at this stage of the science is really stretching statistical credibility to the absolute limit.

      Taking only the first, the Swain/Diffenbaugh paper; They have the required data back only to 1948, then rely on applying statistical techniques to modelling results.

      The team first assessed the rarity of the Triple R in the context of the 20th-century historical record. They found that the combined persistence and intensity of the Triple R in 2013 was unrivaled by any event since 1948, which is when comprehensive information about the circulation of the atmosphere is first available.

      To more directly address the question of whether climate change played a role in the probability of the 2013 event, [...the team..] .....[and] ... Rajaratnam and his graduate students ...[...]... applied advanced statistical techniques to a large suite of climate model simulations.

      Whereas Cook et al. 2014 goes on to point out that;

      Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events.

      Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. .....[.....].... While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability.

      Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing..

      Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and E.R. Cook, 2014: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium. J. Climate, 27, no. 1, 383-397, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100

    5. I don't know what point you're trying to make, marke. You disputed that there was any science to support AGW influence on extreme events. I gave you a number of examples. There are many more. You decided you weren't satisfied with just one of them, though it looks as if your dissatisfaction is on spurious grounds.

      Whatever - you can't turn around and say there is very little said about extreme events on the strength of you not liking one of the papers I referred to, when there are more and more papers appearing every year. And AGW has barely even made itself felt yet. Just wait another decade or two.

    6. marke

      But surely from a scientific observational viewpoint very little can be said regarding changes in frequency or intensity of extreme weather events

      See Hansen, Sato & Ruedy (2012):

      “Climate dice,” describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more “loaded” in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

      It looks like this.

      But of course extreme summer heat events have no impact on agricultural productivity and cannot decrease global food supply security and so increase geopolitical tensions later this century.

      * * *

      A warmer troposphere will hold more water (basic indisputable fact #1). Warmer surface temperatures increase evaporation (basic indisputable fact #2). This will speed up the hydrological cycle by increasing the frequency of intense precipitation events (BIF #3). Expanding Hadley cells Zhou et al. (2011); Johanson & Fu (2009)will increasingly displace temperate mid-latitude precipitation polewards (BIF#4).

      And of course this will have no impact on NH agriculture and so on global food security of supply and so on geopolitical tensions later this century.

      IMO the military analysts are behaving rationally and you are in denial.

  6. From the action in the Guardian comment section on this story, the main line of defense by the American right -- or rather, far right, but I repeat myself -- is that the Pentagon has been ordered to gin up this threat by their eeeevil overlords in the Obama adminstration.

  7. Thanks Sou, BBD.

    My point is; it (the data) is all about the heat. If one accepts the instrument temperature record as it now stands, and paleotemp records as they now stand, and as they mesh with the instrument record, then yes, we have data showing warming.

    But, the expected, and modeled other effects are sparse in terms of data.

    This reference you provided sums it up well, with a neat little 'shadowed paragraph' for each chapter: http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-of-2013-from-a-climate-perspective/

    There are 22 chapters each devoted to a different natural disaster, and only those which are direct measures of temperature (4 chapters on Australian heat waves, one each on Korean, Japanese, Central China, Western Europe heat waves), are firmly attributed to global warming/climate change. A chapter on NZ drought gets a "evidence from a number of models suggests that the meteorological drivers were more favorable for drought as a result of anthropogenic climate change.."

    While for the rest, including Californian droughts, the phrases "...trends did not contribute substantially ... no appreciable contribution ...implications...remain uncertain..." crop up.

    We have no strong statements that blizzards, extreme snow accumulations, severe precipitation events, floods etc were worsened directly due to AGW, several statement along the line of "...large simulation ensembles show no evidence that climate change made heavy precipitation in the upper Danube and Elbe basins in May–June, such as observed in 2013, more likely..." and several clear statements that they would be expected to have a reduced chance or occurring."The UK cold Spring of 2013: ....[warming] ...reduced the odds of an extremely cold UK spring in 2013 at least 30 times...

    As Sou says, "AGW has barely even made itself felt yet".

    We are still heavily relying on theorized outcomes, yet speak of them as if they are occurring.

    1. Give us a break, marke. "They" are already occurring. 2010-11 floods around the world - they happened. The heat waves of 2003 and 2010 did happen. California is in extreme drought. Australian temps have risen by 0.9C and we've had dreadful droughts and bushfires already.

      The science is solid enough to know that if action isn't taken, the climate will change and the consequences will be serious.

      Projections so far have been pretty well spot on. The world continues to heat up, the pH of bodies of water is dropping, sea and land ice is melting, fish stocks are moving and changing, water security in some areas is threatened, sea levels are rising. Put all that against a rapidly rising population and it would be utterly irresponsible to not take any action.

      If the world waits until the worst has already happened it will not only be extremely costly, it will be virtually impossible to go back to where we should have been. Unless you are relying on geo-engineering to suck CO2 out of the air.

      Almost all decisions made by governments and businesses are based on what is expected in the future. They don't wait until the future has happened and then hop in a time machine and go back to make a decision based on what they know the future will be.

      You yourself make a multitude of decisions every day based on what you expect of a future state. People always make decisions despite not knowing the future - everything from going to work on the expectation you're job is still there, to accepting an invitation to a social gathering based on an expectation that social gathering will be held and that you'll not have a conflicting engagements, to saving for retirement, to choosing a partner (in life or business), to having children, to committing to a mortgage etc etc.

      Governments take action all the time on an expected range of future possibilities - whether it be education, health, law and order, defence, immigration, labour market, technological change, food demand and supply etc etc.

      Businesses do the same, when planning manufacturing, sales, service delivery and associated investments, advertising, ordering of supplies, recruitment.

      Most of these decisions are taken in an environment of much less certainty than exists for climate.

      You are sounding like a science denier if not disinformer of the "it's all to uncertain" "wait until after it happens" "adapt don't mitigate" "wait until it's too late to do anything" type.

      Let me guess. You have never worked as an actuary.

    2. marke

      My point is; it (the data) is all about the heat. If one accepts the instrument temperature record as it now stands, and paleotemp records as they now stand, and as they mesh with the instrument record, then yes, we have data showing warming.

      But, the expected, and modeled other effects are sparse in terms of data.

      It's *all* about basic physics. Everything predicted as warming continues is an inevitable outcome of basic physics. The accelerating hydrological cycle, the expansion of the Hadley Cells and poleward displacement of rainfall patterns, the drying of continental interiors, the increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves - all of it.

      If you accept that the warming is real and anthropogenically forced then you accept physics. So by definition you *must* accept that all the above will occur if the climate system heats up.

      That's where denial creeps in. And you do *not* get to whine about name-calling when you are denying basic physics.

  8. I guess we can only go in circles from here:

    Yes, weather/climate events did occur.
    Are they different in scale or frequency to those similar events which occurred in the past? Well, some, (at least) are not yet sure in most cases.

    Granted, governments have to operate off projections (I can still remember when they were called predictions, or forecasts.)

    I am not sure which label/type applies to me as I am not experienced in the labeling field. I have never spent much time thinking up labels for others whose viewpoints may differ from mine.

    And you are quite correct: I have never worked as an actuary.

    1. This is my take on prediction vs projection vs forecast FWIW. Others might differ.

      Predictions tend to be singular. Eg I predict that the ice sheets will continue to melt - no ifs or buts or provisos. The term isn't much used in business or science. It's usually reserved for stuff like astrology. Though in casual use (as opposed to specific jargon), anyone can call any judgement call on the future a "prediction". Each year people put in bids predicting the September extent of Arctic sea ice - but I regard that as casual useage, a bit like predicting the winner of a horse race (based on track record, health, competitors etc).

      Projections are usually dependent upon scenarios. Eg if we cut CO2 by 50% then a whole bunch of things are likely to happen. If we increase CO2 by 50% a whole other bunch of things will happen. In business there could be high growth scenarios, business as usual and low growth scenarios. Or different economic growth scenarios. Projections would be used for high level planning and decision-making. In business they could be used to inform decisions on growth strategies - organic growth vs growth through acquisition for example. In climate, what future climate would be for different economic, social, technological scenarios and particularly the associated atmospheric GHGs.

      Forecasts would normally be shorter term than projections and include quite detailed results. Forecasts are common in business planning. For example, sales and revenue forecasts could be up to five or at most ten years ahead (normally). They can be subject to caveats and what-if analysis. If they are, it's contained to fairly simple sensitivity analyses such as different rates of inflation, which would be applied to, say, inputs such as labour costs and cost of raw materials and unit price for products. I don't think scientists would use the term "forecast" as a general rule in scientific writing. They would use it in casual conversation like anyone else. One exception being meteorology, which uses the word "forecast" meaning expected/calculated weather for the next few days (or longer, for medium term weather forecasts). I don't know if the term is used in epidemiology - such as to describe an expected pattern of a pandemic in the near term.

    2. @marke
      I guess we can only go in circles from here:

      Hook it up to the energy grid. :)

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[Translation] Persona 5 Mementos Report Phan-Survey Vol.1 – Top Scenes & Q&A

Not much Persona content to work on these days (for now, at least) so I’ll take what I can get. To be honest, it’s probably a good thing that this is light work u_u

The dev Q&A is pretty casual, but hey, canon is canon. Vol.1 only covers the beginning of the game up to the buffet on 5/5. More info about the project can be found on Persona Central.

No spoiler tags used in this post. Proceed with caution.

Top-Voted Memorable Scenes

Remember, this only covers the beginning of the game up to the post-Kamoshida Palace buffet on 5/5.

  1. MC’s persona awakening (428 votes)
  2. Shiho jumping from the roof (275 votes)
  3. Ryuji’s persona awakening (198 votes)
  4. Ann’s speech after defeating Kamoshida’s shadow (161 votes)
  5. MC and Ryuji chatting it up at the beef bowl shop (105 votes)
  6. Forming the Phantom Thieves of Hearts (96 votes)
  7. Ann confiding in MC (76 votes)
  8. Kamoshida apologizing at the assembly after his change of heart (62 votes)
  9. MC being questioned in the interrogation room (58 votes)
  10. Ann’s persona awakening (51 votes)

Other mentions: The whispering around you at the beginning of the game, Shiho worrying about MC, Mona’s manga-style running, all of the conversations with Takemi

Atlus Q&A

Some of the answers are presented in illustration/comic form. I’m not going to post them, but I’ll describe what they show.

Q: Through advancing Ryuji’s confidant, we can tell that his mother is nice and cares about her child, but what exactly is she like?

MC: What’s your mom like?
Ryuji: Hmm…
Ryuji: She’s like a loud older sister, and people often say I resemble her a lot.
MC imagines a female Ryuji with twintails, makeup, and an apron
Ryuji’s “Mom”: Ryuji! Do your homework!
Ryuji: Are you imagining something weird?

Q: Ryuji’s shirt designs are really cool. Does he pick them out himself?

A: He does. He’s always liked track and field itself, but he also pays a lot of attention to sneaker and sportswear designs.

Q: Shujin Academy has a wide variety of students. There’s Ryuji, Makoto the honour student, and Haru the high-class girl. The school even allowed MC’s transfer. Do they have a broad-minded stance?

A: Their stance is: Accept those who come to you. Do not pursue those who leave.

Q: Where do the main characters eat lunch, and with who?

A: They usually eat on their own, eating food from the school store or packed lunches.

Q: Why did Ryuji borrow money from Ann in middle school?

A: Train fare.

Q: Was Kamoshida always hiding his “Naked King” personality, even when he was an athlete?

A: Kamoshida was an honest sportsman during his athlete days. His heart became distorted after a certain something happened.

Q: What was Ryuji’s original hair colour, and what was his personality like?

A: His original hair colour is black. Personality-wise, not much has changed since his track and field days; he was impulsive and straightforward.

Q: Sojiro wanted to name Morgana when he first saw him. If he actually did, what name would it have been?

Ann: Oh yeah, you tried to give Morgana a name at first, right?
Sojiro: Yeah… I would’ve borrowed a name of a foreign actor or singer that I liked.
Makoto: Do you like cats?
Sojiro: I don’t mind ’em. What about you kids?
Ryuji: I guess I like them…
Makoto: I’d say I like them.
Ryuji: …Wait, it’s definitely not because of you, Morgana! Don’t get the wrong idea!
Morgana: I didn’t say anything!
Ann: What a tsundere…

Q: Do the Phantom Thieves members prefer dogs or cats?

A: Some of them preferred dogs at first, but after getting to know Morgana, all of them prefer cats now.

Q: Is Ann good at cooking?

A: She can make anything with average skill. However, whenever she cooks for herself, she always makes too much, and since she seasons things to her own liking, she ends up eating too much as well. So, for the sake of maintaining her figure, she won’t cook unless she really needs to for some reason.

Q: Leblanc barely gets any customers. Is it even profitable? How does Sojiro keep the place running?

Sojiro: I hate to say it myself, but you’re really enjoying that curry, huh?
Sojiro: I hand-picked out those coffee beans and made the curry to match.
Sojiro: Savor it, all right?
MC: Huh? Does this shop make enough money for that?
Sojiro: I wouldn’t say we’re unprofitable, but personally, it wouldn’t matter to me if it closed down…
Sojiro: But so long as we have regular customers, it’s my duty to not let them down.

Q: Is there anything special about the curry that Sojiro often makes for breakfast?

A: He does eat other things besides curry for breakfast. As for the curry itself, it’d have to be the compatibility between it and the coffee.

Q: There’s a bag of unroasted coffee beans in Leblanc’s attic. Does Sojiro select from there when he replenishes his stock?

A: Yes, Sojiro selects from the coffee beans.

Q: Ann’s parents are fashion designers–what kinds of clothes does Ann herself like?

A: In addition to her personal aesthetics, Ann likes picking clothes that others, such as Shiho, will praise. Shiho likes it when Ann wears provocative clothes, because she’s drawn to what she doesn’t have.

Q: We first meet Takemi at Leblanc. Is she a regular customer there? Also, has she always been into punk fashion?

A: Takemi is an occasional customer at Leblanc. As for the second question, yes.

Q: It must be hard to run a clinic by yourself. Does Takemi struggle with cash flow? There are cracks in the walls…

A: She makes enough to stay in business. The cracks are just because the building is old.

Q: When you first go to Sojiro’s house at the beginning of the game, there’s a deliveryman trying to deliver a package. Is that how Futaba buys things?

A: Sojiro works during the day, so Futaba gets most of her stuff via home delivery.

Q: MC’s phone has an app with a bunny icon… What is that? Am I paying too much attention?

A: You are *laughs*

Q: Surely the person who sits behind MC in class can see Morgana hiding in the desk, right…?

A: Morgana is black, which helps. Plus, they live in an urban society where people don’t care about others, so he doesn’t get noticed.

Q: What flavour is Iwai’s candy?

A: He changes it up depending on his mood.

Iwai: You wanna know what flavour this is?
Iwai: Today, it’s Calbee. I also have katsudon, steak, and ginger fried pork flavour.

Q: What were Ann and Ryuji like in middle school? How well did they know each other before becoming Phantom Thieves?

A: They were pretty much the same as they are in high school. Ann stood out because of her foreigner looks, so she didn’t open up to anyone besides Shiho. Ryuji was a fast runner since middle school. They’d greet each other if they passed by, but that’s about it.

Q: How did Ann and Shiho meet and become friends?

A: They met in middle school, and it was Shiho that talked to Ann first. Ann was generally ostracized for her appearance, so she was interested in Shiho, who was willing to talk to her. They didn’t have much in common, but since they both had knowledge that the other lacked, their friendship built off of that.

Q: Does Akechi make Sae take him out for sushi?

A: They do have conveyor belt sushi together sometimes.

Q: How did the other party members spend April before they met MC? What was a typical day like for them?

A: Yusuke would wake up in the Madarame estate and go to school. After school, he’d study painting under Madarame and occasionally accompany him on business.

Makoto would wake up at home and go to school. After school, she’d do student council work, study in the library, etc. She’d go home early and do all of the household chores in Sae’s place.

Futaba doesn’t have a set time to wake up, but she often wakes up around noon and spends the entire day on her PC. Her meals are brought to her by Sojiro.

Haru would wake up at home and go to school. After school, if her fiance invited her out, then she’d go with him. Otherwise, if there wasn’t anything that needed to be done, she’d go straight home. She also accompanied her father on business.

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It’s the last few weeks of spring and there’s a long summer ahead – we can slow our pace and relax before upcoming events. If you still feel nervous after the rapid crypto-upswing the previous week, take a look at how meditative EOS bubbles dance, soothe yourself with a warm drink and come back to us – this week brought a lot of stuff to puzzle out. Updates rolled out two releases in EOSIO Labs – both making the lives of the EOS developers much easier.

The first one is EOSIO Explorer, a web-based graphical user interface which was implemented to improve the developer experience of interacting with and monitoring EOSIO-based applications and networks in development. Now the process of interaction with the blockchain will be much friendlier for developers who are used to visual interfaces.

The second one is a native SDK on Swift and Java, open source tools providing better support for native mobile applications built on EOSIO. These Software Development Kits (SDKs) provide native APIs for interacting with EOSIO blockchains and they will be available on Android and IOS.

EOS Governance

EOS has its own political life, and every week some new problems emerge while others are solved. To get an idea of how it works, you can read about the voting system here and referendum here. This pretty much sums up the basics of voting on EOS.

In May, there were two major proposals, raising questions on the most important part of voting – vote-security, and the reward system for voters. EOS New York proposed to overcome vote-buying by motivating higher voter participation. On the other hand, EOS Nation proposed a direct vote-buying mechanism. There is a nice article, summing up these two ideas and proposing a third way. We’ll follow up on how this discussion is resolved.

pEOS is a token on eosio that is working on enabling private and untraceable transactions on the EOS main chain. Their team did a nice job of explaining its whitepaper and how it will work for non-technical people. Transaction privacy is always a concern for cryptocurrency users, and pEOS is going to use the advantage of EOS transaction speed to make these transactions fast and secure.

On the main page of the project, it is stated that pEOS will be launched on the EOS mainnet in Q3 of 2019.

EOS Integrations

We already mentioned the major migration to EOS that started this spring, so here are other projects integrating with the blockchain:

-Popular non-custodial exchange, Switcheo, running on the NEO blockchain adds EOS tokens to its offering.

-Payment platform has listed EOS on its app.

-An online payment platform, Skrill, opened direct access to EOS for over 40 million of its users.

Learning EOS

The resources that are the most scarce for new users in the crypto space is knowledge and simple explanatory pieces on how all this stuff actually works, written in words understandable to a common person.

This short video does a nice job of explaining how transactions in EOS work, so if you don’t get it – watch it. And then try to explain it to your grandma.

When people don’t quite understand the basics and start to speak about major and complicated topics, misinformation and confusion reach dangerous levels, even if there is no malicious intent in it. EOS NewYork felt that enough is enough and wrote an articulate list of mistakes made by recent “experts” on EOS governance. All lazy journalists are welcome to read

EOS For The World

We try to highlight some interesting projects based on EOS every week, and it’s always the hardest part of the preparatory work – there are just too many. Art, content, games, exchanges, social networks – it is always exciting to find another sphere of the old world that could be transferred to the brave new one through the lens of EOS. But today we would speak about the present, not the future.

Venezuela, as we all know, is in a deep crisis partly caused by inflation and rotten foundations of its economic system. The charity relief program, GiveCrypto, has come to the aid of families in Venezuela by conducting a three-month trial of crypto transfers, donating around 7 USD worth of EOS tokens weekly (monthly minimum wage in Venezuela) to 100 struggling families who couldn’t even buy food on a daily basis.

Despite the small number of people in the program and the harsh restriction on cryptocurrencies in the country, the experiment was a success – families could exchange it for local fiat and be saved from starvation. This case and initiative is very important: it shows how crypto can not just make us prosperous tomorrow, but help people in real struggle today.

If you want to help, you can read about the charity and ways to donate your EOS here.

The summer of 2019 would start with #B1June on June 1. Major announcements, expectations of a positive market change, and other theories about the event – all predictions are summed up by MEET.ONE. Everyone is excited, spring has brought a lot of new changes, and this summer is going to be one of the most eventful seasons in EOS. And we’ll surely cover it!

From the Lumi Wallet team, a big thanks for tuning in to us for EOS news, and until next week!


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The risk and reward of difficult conversations with friends

tl;dr at the end.

Sometimes, when I express a mindset that I’ve adopted, people are intrigued by it and find it a useful way of framing certain thoughts. When that happens enough times, I figure it’s time to document the mindset for wider dissemination; this is one of those.

A while ago, I was considering my relationship with a close friend. I realised I was interested in exploring a non-platonic (romantic, intimate, or sexual) relationship with them. I wasn’t hung up on this idea; I basically wanted to float it and see what they thought, and I was happy to leave things as they were if the other person wasn’t interested.

I hear stories sometimes of people who have tried to suggest changes (some may call them “escalations”, though I don’t like that mindset) like this to a relationship, and are concerned that just the mere suggestion of these changes could destroy the relationship. What if the friend doesn’t think of you the same after you suggest, say, that you’re interested in them romantically? What if this knowledge means they’re not comfortable continuing your existing platonic relationship, because they might think they’re teasing teasing you by staying around but denying you the relationship change you suggested, because your feelings are unrequited? What if they are offended or insulted by your suggestion, for some reason? Perhaps you suggest a sexual relationship and they think you’re just desperate for sex and trying to use them to get it?

Here’s the big question: do you really want to continue a relationship (be it friendship or otherwise) with somebody who would react like this to a calmly raised suggestion, when you have stated that it is a suggestion and nothing more, and that you’re happy with things as they are? If you can’t be completely honest with this person and have them be anything other than grateful for your honesty and vulnerability, what’s the point? Wouldn’t you rather know that’s the case than brush it under the carpet and never find out because you didn’t make the suggestion?

So here I am, a while ago, wrestling with these thoughts about a friend: I am interested in exploring romance, intimacy, or sex with them, but I don’t want this admission to be reacted to negatively and damage our existing friendship. I thought it through, and I came out with three distinct possible outcomes:

  1. My friend will be keen to explore these other things with me and we see where it goes.
  2. My friend will respectfully tell me that they’re happy with our relationship as it is, and be grateful for my vulnerability in making this suggestion.
  3. My friend will struggle to digest this new information, and, despite clear and empathetic discussions about it and my assertions that it’s fine if they want to keep things as they are, will think that my unrequited feelings are something they can’t deal with (maybe because they think it’d be unkind to “tempt” me by sticking around), and elect to end our friendship. If this happens, it would be a really unfortunately loss of a great long-term friendship, but I’d also be pleased to know that we were both out authentic selves and I didn’t hide my feelings out of fear.

I realised that all three of these outcomes are acceptable to me. If (3) occurs, that’s a shame, but that’s life, and the fact is that I’ve known this person for years, so the likelihood of this outcome is very small. If we hadn’t been friends for long, and I made this suggestion, then (a) there’s less at stake; I have invested less in the relationship, and (b), I still would be grateful to learn that the friend would react this way sooner rather than later, and we can either work through that now, or go our separate ways.

I set out and wrote a big lengthy message, discussing my thought process and dancing around the message’s point. I wanted to do this in text because I can better and more articulately express my thoughts without feeling rushed, and once the message is sent, I can convince myself that there is nothing I can do until they respond, so there’s no point in dwelling on it or fretting. Hope for the best, express for the worst, but don’t waste your energy stressing about it. The message exceeded 400 words, but, halfway down, I asked, basically, if this person was interested in going on a date with me.

Then I waited patiently for a response. I’ll do you the courtesy that my friend did for me, which was to get unambiguously to the point early in the message so as not to keep me in suspense: they were happy with our relationship as it was, and weren’t interested in anything romantic. They also expressed that they appreciated my honesty.

And that was that. We’re still great friends; perhaps better, because I know I can feel safe having these hard conversations, and assume they’ll react empathetically and within my best interests.

So seriously, if you have you have high stakes conversation you want to have with a friend, just do it! The worst that can happen is they’ll show their true colours and not react well to the conversation, in which case that is valuable information that you have learned about each other; perhaps they could do with some research on communications, or, depending on the severity of their response, some therapy; there’s no shame in that.

Take the plunge!

tl;dr: If you’re worried about having a hard but respectful conversation with a friend because you’re concerned it’ll jeopardise/end the friendship, ask yourself if you really want to be friends with somebody who won’t give you the benefit of the doubt and respond compassionately and empathetically regardless of the outcome? What have you got to lose?

Author: mattcen

Linux sysadmin/advocate, @scoutsvic leader, @okfnau, bisexual/polyamorous geek. He/him. Opinions mine. PGP: DB91 CFEF 322D C608 385F 563C 2F88 1AC6 4A16 1033

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April 10, 2017

Market-Level Profit and Loss Statements

Remember this (click here)?

That was a case where a store was closed, and online sales did not increase. When the store closed, customers simply went elsewhere. The market lost nearly half of the sales that existed when the store was there.

Now, if you look at top-line sales and care about sales growth, that's a problem.

If you are a CFO and care about profitability, you don't care one bit about that as long as profit increases.

This is where market-level profit and loss statements come into play. Smart retailers have market-level profit-and-loss statements for every market, based on forecasts for what happens when a store closes.

Here is an example in a market where there is just one store. When the store closes, the market is forecast to become more profitable.

The incremental value of the store in the market is negative. The store generates $640,000 of in-store retail sales. The store actually suppresses $200,000 of online sales. And in total, the store loses $19,200 profit.

Catalogers went through this process 10-15 years ago. Catalogers produced profit-and-loss statements for individual catalogs, using mail/holdout tests, determining whether catalogs truly added value or not. We did this at Nordstrom. We knew that catalogs were break-even propositions in terms of incremental value. Catalogs were killed. Game over. Customers didn't care. Profit actually increased.

Smart retailers have market-level profit and loss statements ... for every market (often for individual store trade areas). They know what needs to be done.

At an Executive Level, the discussions become interesting.
  • Does the "brand" need to produce $440,000 of net sales that generate a loss of $19,200?
The room rapidly splits into two camps.
  • Market-Share and Growth advocates immediately say "YES". They lobby to keep the store open (we can't shrink our way to growth - the loss is a small price to pay to protect the brand).
  • Profit advocates immediately say "NO" (there is no reason to run a business that generates sales at a loss, if you believe that is the right decision, why not take a pay cut).
The analytical guru typically creates a scenario illustrating what it takes for the store to generate positive incremental profit. Look at the scenario below.

The "market" needs a 20% increase in merchandise productivity in order for the store to generate incremental profit ... and even then, the store is generating $8,960 profit on sales of $528,000.

We all know that merchandise productivity is not going to increase by 20% ... that hasn't happened in more than twenty years (pre-internet), right?

This is why stores are closing, my friends. Market-Level Profit-And-Loss Statements coupled with forecasts for future retail cannibalization and future merchandise productivity indicate what is best for the market in question.

Forecasting skills have become critically important in modern analytics.

Market-Level Profit-And-Loss Statements have become critically important in modern retailing.

Give me a holler (kevinh@minethatdata.com) if you need help with forecasting and market-level profit and loss statements.

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The Third Biggest File Power Story of 2020

Have you ever executed a strategy like this? Business isn't great, and you need new customers and Management demands that you sell some...


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Tag Archives: modesty

Coats of Skin

Yet another interesting difference between Mormonism and evangelical Christianity has caught my attention recently. The July 2009 issue of the Ensign magazine includes an article about modesty written by Silvia Allred, First Counselor in the Relief Society General Presidency. As … Continue reading

Posted in Christianity, The Fall | Tagged , | 62 Comments


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Posts Tagged ‘Singapore math’

Last week on the Rod Arquette show, a Judy Park (??? not sure of last name) from the state office of education spoke with Rod concerning the release of the latest PISA scores ( which help show math, reading, and science ability rankings from around the world. The United States was down the list a ways for math and was behind such powerhouse nations as Liechtenstein, Estonia, Iceland, Slovenia, Poland, and Luxembourg (aside from the obvious ones like China and Singapore). We did pull ahead of Qatar and Tunisia thankfully. 🙂 Among the claims made by Judy were the following:

-Utah is above national average in math benchmarking as evidenced by NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) scores
-The new Common Core standards are something to get excited about and will help the states do better in math

The first one has already been dis-proven a couple years back when Dr. David Wright at BYU showed that since Utah has an over 80% white population, it artificially raises our state average when compared to states that have a much higher minority percentage (minorities tend to score less on standardized tests). He was able to show that when comparing whites to whites, Utah actually ranked 37th and 39th at 4th and 8th grade respectively. This was based on 2005 NAEP data and I would assume nothing has changed since then. This is comparing apples to apples. Utah is NOT above national average.

As for NAEP’s qualifications as a test, several years ago Dr. John Hoven compared U.S. NAEP test questions to those of the world class math leaders. Here are two of his main points from his article (

  • “My point is simple: There is a chasm of difference in expectations between NAEP and the problems used by world-class mathematics leaders. We expect too little from our children, and by lowering our expectations we lower their incentive to achieve.”
  • “NAEP classifies its problems as “easy,” “medium,” or “hard.” I benchmarked the “hard” 8th grade problems, examining NAEP’s highest level of expectation for 8th grade math. Most of these “hard” 8th grade problems are at the level of Singapore’s grade 5 – or lower.”

Now for Judy’s second point on the Common Core standards.

Just a few short years ago, a number of people went through an incredibly difficult process to get the state of Utah to raise it’s math standards. Nobody at the state office or state school board wanted to change from standards that were rated by the Fordham Foundation at a ‘D’ level, and the US Chamber of Commerce rated them a ‘C’.  The state board also rejected the notion of just adopting California’s ‘A’ rated standards on the basis that this is Utah and we are somehow unique and different than California so we need our own math standards. No matter that that would have saved us a lot of time and money…

After a lot of work by a lot of legislators, educators, and citizens, Utah capitulated and went through the rewrite process. Upon review, they garnered an ‘A-‘ from the Fordham Foundation. They were pretty good, though still subpar to countries like Singapore that have fewer standards so they can spend more time mastering those concepts. The trite phrase “a mile wide and an inch deep” was referred to repeatedly by educators and board members in this state, but nobody would admit it was indicative of Utah’s current standards that weighed in around 60-70 topics per grade level giving teachers only 2-3 days to cover a topic.  In Singapore, they have an average of 9 days to delve into a topic, master it, and then build on it without having to repeat concepts over and over. This chart illustrates time spent per standard. The area of the rectangles roughly match.

Utah Standards

So now the Obama administration sets in motion the Common Core standards. States were offered bribe money to “Race to the Top” and be one of the first to adopt. Most states jumped right on the bandwagon including Utah which somehow overcame the difficulty of their prior position that Utah is unique and doesn’t need or want something developed by someone out of our state. Some mathematicians look at the standards and say they’re pretty good. Others are not so excited. What’s the difference? One see the path of the agenda, the other sees a carrot (bribe).

“How can the State Boards of Education make decisions when they haven’t even read the standards? Many state’s Board Members had never been initiated into what was in these documents.  What were the policy issues coming out of these documents and whether these analyses truly were in a sense legitimate academic analysis…These are very serious issues about what self- government means at the state and local government level.”–Sandra Stotsky,  professor in the Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas, and holds the 21st Century Chair in Teacher Quality.

The real danger comes in this way. National standards lead to national tests to ensure the standards are followed. Those are followed by a national curriculum to ensure students are ready for the tests. That is followed by tracking teachers and giving them an incentive to have their students progress well. That means teachers and students are tracked in a national database. That opens the door to the government indoctrinating in the classroom through test questions, curriculum, and teacher merit pay based on how well their students test ACCORDING TO TESTS WRITTEN BY THE GOVERNMENT. This is extraordinarily dangerous to our freedom and future. Teachers teach to the test. If the assessments are geared toward social justice, constructivist style questions, it will further the deliberate dumbing down of American students in preparation for a government mandated future.

Here’s the kicker. Someone recently posted a quote on Save Alpine School District .com from John Goodlad’s book Developing Democratic Character in the Young (pp. 161) as saying “the current demand for unprecedented levels of academic achievement is getting in the way of [our] humanistic purposes.”

This is all part of the plan of the progressive educators like Goodlad and Noddings. They don’t care about academic performance. Their emphasis is on creating democratic citizens that are fully enculturated into a social and political democracy. You may think schooling is non-partisan and non-political, but in this same book’s preface you will find Goodlad in disagreement stating, “Schooling is a practical, political affair.” They know their purpose and it is not academic excellence. It is the subjugation of a nation by turning them into obedient little automatons. This is why Goodlad had Marxist revolutionary Bill Ayers speak as the keynote speaker in Goodlad’s NNER conference in October 2010.

How important is math to America? We aren’t competing against China anymore, we’re competing against the top students in China. Until Utah’s education system and legislature take this seriously, we’ll continue to slide all the while touting how great we are doing for the amount of money we’re spending. I’ve got news for you Utah, plenty of other countries spend less money than Utah and outperform us. Why? Real standards and real curriculum. It’s time to pilot Singapore math in Utah and replicate the success of Benchmark Charter School in Arizona where 94% of all students say math is their favorite class and they prove it by being the top scoring school in the state.

Howdy folks,

I’ve been buried with projects, one of which is getting Mathino ready for purchase as quickly as possible so those of you that want it for Christmas can get it. It’s really a fantastic game (since I didn’t create it I can say that :)).

There’s been a bit of stuff lately that has come out, some more important than others and where my time is short I will just summarize the highlights and give you links to the information.

This first piece would be great to share with board members, teachers, and principles.
Who Needs Mathematicians for Math, Anyway?
The ed schools’ pedagogy adds up to trouble.
by Sandra Stotsky, former Assistant Commissioner of Education in MA, and now professor of education reform in Arkansas.
“The math wars, which started in debates about pedagogy, may end in questions about the long-term prospects for American prosperity.”

In this classic “news” report by The Onion, just substitute “reform” for “Montessori” and “math” for “dentisty” and you’ll get a good laugh over the insanity of constructivism.

Montessori School Of Dentistry Lets Students Discover Their Own Root Canal Procedures

A couple weeks ago, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce released a new report on educational innovations in each state entitled “Leaders and Laggards”. Not many states faired well, but Utah was near the bottom of the heap with poor school management, staffing (removing ineffective teachers), pipeline to postsecondary, and technology.  We did get an ‘A’ for data and a ‘B’ for finance, but overall a ‘D’ rating.

NCTQ report recommends Colorado adopt Singapore Math

Latest outrages:

Achtung! Prosecutor says only jail deters homeschooling

This past week the citizens of my hometown made the press as their fight against Investigations math got big enough to attract attention. I just posted the below message to them on their fight site and encourage you to visit their petition site.

I am so sorry you have to go through this pain. As a graduate of the class of 1987, back when teachers required you to solidly understand and perform math, I remember with great fondness doing timed tests in 3rd grade at Park Forest Elementary school to master the 12×12 tables.
Those essential skills serve all other aspects of math (and life).
Foundational mastery and rapid recall is essential to be able to dissect algebraic equations where you must see connections invisibly and instantly to solve quadratics such as what two numbers add to 19 and multiply to 84. This must be low level programmed into the subconscious for further mastery.

I left State College thinking you an anchor being next to the great engineering college of Penn State. Moving to Utah and raising a family here, I was horrified to learn that my children weren’t being taught the times tables in my district. Parents were told not to teach them for fear it would “mess them up” because of the supposed critical thinking skills Investigations math would instill.  I thought, “if only I could be back in State College where the grass is greener.”
Then my sister told me a few years ago that you had adopted Investigations math and my world came crashing down. I have survived through the years by working to eradicate this program from Utah.

I have learned that there are NO studies that support Investigations math or constructivism as a curriculum. The International TIMSS exam proves that curriculum is the #1 determining factor for successful students. Singapore is #1 for a reason. Their math program teaches children the basics of algebraic problem solving starting in 3rd grade.  By the time they are in 4th grade, they have 7 times the number of students with an advanced understanding of math as we do in the United States. They’ve cracked the code.

I truly hope you will rise up and help the board members in State College understand that their job as elected officials is to represent YOU the taxpaying public and not be apologists and protectors of the school district administration who are being paid by YOU. It’s your tax dollars and the board’s responsibility is to ensure the wisest course of action (most bang for the buck).  This is the single biggest misconception of school board members who allow themselves to be bullied by district “experts” who tell them “all the studies say this is the best way to do it” and who are they to argue with experts?
It’s time they started arguing before this Enron of educational programs destroys our technical prowess in America.

The greatest thing you could do is adopt Singapore Math (Primary Series from When Benchmark elementary in Arizona did this, within a few years they were the top scoring school in the state for math, and 94% of students reported that math was their FAVORITE subject.  Imagine that.  Kids that master math love it.  When kids struggle with weak math, they hate it.  Which program do you think will better let your children move into a bright future?

Oak Norton  (be sure to click on America’s Dire Straits page, and Singapore and Utah math)

A new study has been released that tracked the use of Singapore math in a Massachusetts school district.  The conclusive results show the schools on Singapore jumping far ahead of state averages.  You can obtain a copy of the study from the Utah’s Math Future website.


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Product Photography Tips

This post is also available in: French German Italian Spanish

Since we’re in the business of pushing images, we’re always being asked which product shots are going to be the most popular with journalists. With over 46,000 images and counting on our UK, AU and DE sites, we are certainly quick to spot the images that are going to tickle the journos fancy, and those which are going to be left languishing in the library unloved.

PL cut out images

We tend to find that 70% of the time the images regularly showing up on our monthly top 10s are clean and crisp cut-outs, with high resolutions and large file sizes.

That’s not really surprising when you think about it. A sharp image of a product against a white background shows it off in the best possible light, and is very easy for the journalist to place directly on their page alongside other product selections, with minimal fuss. Most products work well photographed straight on, but always consider whether the product would benefit from being shot at a slight angle in order to give it a depth of field and sense of scale.

Next up, image resolution and file size. Although the required minimum image file size for Press Loft is 100kb, we always recommend uploading images that are at least 800kb – if not larger – to ensure the image doesn’t pixelate, even when blown up to A4 size (and who doesn’t want their product featured as a full page spread in a magazine?!). An image may look sharp on a computer monitor, but if it is only 50kb it is going to pixelate when printed. You also need to check the dpi (dots per inch) as most web images are only 72dpi, and journalists will require images of 300dpi for printing.

It’s quick and easy to check these details. To check the file size and dimensions just open the file in a simple editing program, such as Microsoft Picture Viewer, and select ‘properties’ to view. Checking the dpi requires slightly more advanced programs – these details can be easily accessed by opening the jpeg in Paint.NET, Photoshop or another similar program.

Stay tuned for more product photography tips, coming soon!


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PrestoSoft Blog :: Home

Friday, May 22, 2009

ExamDiff Pro 4.5 Released!

At long last, we have released ExamDiff Pro 4.5! This release contains all of the features of the beta, including fuzzy line matching, moved block recognition, a revamped diff bar interface, a number of file editing improvements (including line modification marks, improved block operations, resolved block recognition, and smarter Undo/Redo), the ability to specify file encoding (ASCII, UTF-8, UTF-16LE or UTF-16BE) when opening or saving files, and much, much more.

You can find more details about ExamDiff Pro 4.5, and a download link, here.

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How your Smart Home could ruin your life

smart home

We’ve all seen those horror films, a vulnerable woman stands alone in her house and the lights begin to flicker, the radio starts to blast music. The woman begins to scream and beg her ghostly tormentors to leave her alone. Sadly, for some people, this narrative has been bought to life.

Since smart appliances and devices have been invented companies have been very aware of the risk their users are exposed to if they come under siege from hackers. They envisioned these hackers setting out to steal personal data and confidential details. What they did not imagine though, is their innovative devices being used in attacks of a personal nature.

When you think of domestic abuse you think of physical violence and emotional torture, you think of controlling behaviours and victims too afraid to escape. You don’t usually think of Alexa and Amazon Echo. What we neglect to think about when installing these devices, is the effect they will have on our lives if they are used against us.

amazon echo

Most smart home devices can be controlled remotely via an app. All the user needs is a password. In most relationships couples work as a team, managing different areas of their lives and working together to ensure success. In abusive relationships one party controls everything, he/she handles the passwords, the utilities, the finances and keeps the other person isolated and powerless.

Smart devices sometimes become ammunition in psychological warfare. Abusers change passwords, flick lights on and off, turn the heating up until it is unbearable, blast music set off alarms. They do anything to maintain control and make life difficult for their victims.

Woman are particularly at risk because, despite feminist advancements, men still seem to be installing most technological products within the household. This leaves victims vulnerable to attack because they do not know how to disable products or change passwords on devices.

As the industry continues to grow in size and developers market more and more products, every adult in the household should endeavour to understand how to properly use and monitor the products they install. This reduces the chances of an enraged Ex being in control of the house you are living in.
It is incredibly easy though, for us to encourage people to take back power and be completely aware of the devices they use. Victims of domestic abuse may not always have that luxury.

Anyone experiencing domestic abuse, controlling behaviour or believes that they are in danger should contact the appropriate authorities and get professional help.

Written By Yazmine Howes


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NEW Employee Spotlight: Paula Clifford

Get to Know Our Sales & Marketing Associate, Paula!

Paula has a passion for life in general, but it was her passion for working in sales that brought her to RSVP on 9/23/2019.

Since her friends and family are an extremely important part of her life, she spends as much time with them as possible. Paula has been blessed with some very special friendships that go back to high school and several since grade school! Some of the fun trips they have enjoyed together are to Mackinac Island, MI; Gatlinburg, TN; Shipshewana, IN; and numerous trips to Holmes County, OH in Amish Country. They love visiting Amish Country the most and already have a trip planned for October 2020!

Paula and her friends’ last fun outing was to see the live performance of “Elf the Musical” at the LaComedia Dinner Theater in Springboro, OH. Fun times, great food, and a fantastic performance!

The latest memorable family gathering was at her oldest grandson’s wedding in October. It was a very emotional and beautiful outdoor wedding. The weather was perfect!

Paula loves spending time on the beach, relaxing and ‘shelling’. Her favorite vacation spot is Sanibel Island, FL. Sanibel has been billed as one of the best ‘shelling’ locations in the world. When you are looking for sea shells, they say people are doing the ‘Sanibel Stoop”! She has been there many times, but still loves walking up and down their white, sandy beaches as much as she did the first time. Her daughter and grandson visited Sanibel this past summer, but she couldn’t make the trip this time, but you can rest assured that she will visit again soon!

Sanibel Island at sunset.jpeg

NEW Employee Spotlight: Danny Bates

Get to Know Our Graphic Designer, Danny!

Danny is originally from Dayton, Ohio but recently moved to the Cincinnati area and began working for RSVP in January of 2019.

Before he started working for RSVP, Danny played hockey and studied Fine Arts / Graphic Design at The University of Mississippi.

Even though he doesn’t have any pets of his own, he still loves being around the fur balls in his family!

Left: Zeke, Husky & Great Pyrenees (Sister’s Dog)

Middle: Sidney, Golden Retriever & Irish Setter (Parent’s Dog)

Right: Laela, English Bulldog (Girlfriend’s Dog)

When he’s not creating designs for RSVP, Danny enjoys staying creative by painting, drawing, and making music with friends.

Danny is extremely grateful to have amazing people in his life. He loves creating art, music, and design work but his favorite place to be is spending time with his family.

All images are Danny’s own & may not be republished without express written permission.

How Kids Judge the Halloween Candy You Give Out

Everyone has their candy preferences, but what are kids thinking about what you’re putting in their bag?

However grateful and well mannered they are, it’s impossible for trick-or-treaters to avoid casting some judgment on the treat-giver-outers they encounter.

The Old Timer

You’re old school. You don’t go for newfangled gadgets or trends. You like the classics. When you’ve been around the block as many times as you have, you know what’s good and you stick with it.

The Spaz

You get an A for awkward. Either you grossly underestimated or “Candy” was flagrantly forgotten on SEVERAL grocery lists.

The Party Pooper

You’re probably allergic to sugar and happiness, but our new cavities are still going to get some sweetness tonight.

The Trusty Provider

Nothing too fancy, nothing too nasty. You’re a solid source of one or two enjoyable or tradable “fun” sized treats.

Cheapy McCheapster

You’re handing out candy from last year’s after-Halloween sales, aren’t you? Money may not grow on your trees, but tonight some toilet paper might.

The Legend

We shall one day tell our own kids of you good sir/madam. And the gold-plated private jet you must have lying around somewhere.

Contributed by Bethany Briggs

Need a little pick-me-up?

“Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.” – Aristotle

There comes times when I have some self-doubt creeping in or sales may not be landing in my favor. Other times, it feels like relationships just don’t seem to be clicking. When I start to get a little anxious, I always get that hunger for learning. I wander around the aisles of the bookstore. I get on Amazon and read the reviews you know those “if you like this book you might also love ____”. Lately, everything I’ve read is just meh. Just repetition of the same material and content I’ve heard years before. It had been quite a while since I found a gem of a read. Definitely, quite a long time since I’ve picked up a book that is life-changing.

While waiting on a cell-phone repair, I wandered into a bookstore and this one called out to me, “READ ME!” High Performance Habits by Brendon Burchard. It’s off to an inspiring start. It’s the kind of book that makes you want to rush home and devour some more.

I’d love to share a few of my all-time faves. This is my go-to list of books I’ve read most more than one time. Some are dog-eared. All have highlighted passages. Some I’ve read 10 times. Not only does the content never get old, I often discover something new messages within the pages. Life situations change and that old text now speaks to me in a different way delivering a new and timely lesson.

Whether you’re looking for a little positive thinking or ready to grow your business to the next level, I hope you enjoy these classics (followed by my two cents).

E-myth by Michael Gerber (Critical for every entrepreneur)
The Magic of Thinking Big by David Schwartz
How to Win Friends and Influence people by Dale Carnegie
Good to Great by Jim Collins
Duct tape Marketing by John Jantsch (Practical advice for small businesses marketing that doesn’t cost a fortune)
Positive Personality Profiles by Dr. Richard Rohm (Forever changed my perspective on interactions with others)
10 X by Grant Cardone
Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill (I had this one on cassette tape in my first car)
Selling the Invisible by Harry Beckwith
The Bible
Drive by Daniel pink
One Minute Manager by Ken Blanchard (Principles are timeless)
Lean In by Sheryl Sandberg (Give yourself permission to do great things!)
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell (Fascinating research into top achievers)
Just Listen by Mark Goulston

I’d love to hear your all time faves. I’ll add them to my “MUST READ” list.

Contributed by Heather Kuth.

All images are Heather’s own & may not be republished without express written permission.

50 Years of Gratitude

“The healthiest of all human emotions is Gratitude” was spoken by Zig Zigler as he described what he called an Attitude of Gratitude

This is not human nature, and therefore not always easy to implement, and those around me know I am not always grateful in the moment.  However, when I step back and reflect on my time on this earth – Grateful summarizes my posture. You, like me, have so much to be grateful for, if we can keep redirecting our attention to gratitude.

I’ve had the fortune of visiting some cool places in the US and abroad. These are a few pictures where I’m feeling grateful!

I have been blessed with what I believe are God’s greatest gifts. I turned 50 this year and I’ll illustrate some of my most precious gifts below:

My amazing, beautiful and talented wife Ira. I took this picture of her recently with the Alaska landscape in the background.

We were married in September 2016 in Asheville at the Omni Grove Park Inn, now one of our favorite destinations…  The air in the mountains is so clean and fresh, and that resort is magical and very relaxing…

My loving and supportive parents, Justin & Ilde Sucato. My parents are both 100% Italian, and my Mom came over from Italy when she was a little girl. My Dad’s parents came from Sicily. My parents taught and were examples for my brothers and I that honesty and hard work are the foundations for success. Although my Dad passed in 2010, and I miss him dearly, I’m very grateful for the man that he was, and the example he set for me.

My brothers (Justin, Dan, and Joe) and I grew up very close. We’re all in different professions now, but each successful in their field. I’m grateful that we are each married to wonderful wives and have beautiful families. I’m also grateful that we schedule annual family reunions to spend time with each other during these busy times. Justin’s a successful business owner, Dan is a world-renowned Pediatric Orthopedic Surgeon and Chief of Staff of his hospital, and Joe is an accomplished Jazz Musician and aspiring entrepreneur.

My 3 Handsome Boys:  Anthony 23, Andrew 19, and Christopher 16 are my pride and joy. These guys are growing up to be fine gentlemen and they continue to make me proud.

My 3 Beautiful Girls:  Emma 9, Gia 12, Maya 11. These are my step-daughters and they are a handful!  Girls are for sure different than boys, and I’m learning that first hand now! They are caring and sweet, and little firecrackers!

Our Family! This picture was taken at the foot of a waterfall (fed by a glacier) in Alaska. We were all together for this once-in-a-lifetime trip! The boys and the girls. and Ira and I had the best time!

Our puppy Nova was my gift to the girls for their wedding gift. The boys and Ira and I picked him out. He’s a multi-poo and he’s smart and intuitive. I can’t imagine our household without Nova!

This is my ex-wife Teresa. I include here in my collection of gratitude because we shared 18 years our lives together married and raised my 3 boys together. I’m grateful for that chapter of my life, my 3 boys.

This is one of my favorite pictures of our family altogether after our wedding ceremony! It doesn’t get better than this!

And finally, I am so grateful for my RSVP work-family (pictured below) who have been incredible for the last 18 years. Although some of my team members have changed over the years, this group of fine professionals inspires me daily to be my best. They have unique personalities and interested, and that makes our team unique and world-class! We have reached national status for our performance, sales accomplishments, and quality. Each of them has family not pictured here and I’m proud that our business supports their fine families.

My clients who we serve are amazing! My staff and I work with hundreds of incredible people and their businesses who we are proud to consider RSVP family. Each one of them has helped to grow me and my team – and we’ve helped them in a small way in exchange.

This is my family and I’m proud and grateful to be among them and serve!

I hope you’ll join me and make 2018-2019 your best year ever by having an Attitude of Gratitude!

Anthony R. Sucato

Owner, RSVP / Sucato Marketing Systems

All images are Tony’s own & may not be republished without express written permission.

NEW Employee Spotlight : Amy Flounders Baker

Get To Know Our Administrative Assistant, Amy!

The last year has been a whirlwind! Amy got married, moved to Ohio with her husband, and started working for RSVP.

She loves staying active but has never been a natural athlete. Slow and steady is her mantra! She crossed two items off her bucket list in the last few years. She ran the Flying Pig marathon in 2014 and in 2015 finished the Maryland ½ Ironman.

She’s a huge animal lover. Amy and her husband have a small dog herd.

Amy renovated a house in 2016 during some time off. She loved demo day and the whole process of rebuilding from the studs. Her friends and family all helped out, which made the end result even better.

Amy and her husband went on a cruise in March (our first one). She loves the ocean and most of her vacations have revolved around the beach.

Her favorite place to be is with friends and family, giving thanks for every day!

All images are Amy’s own & may not be republished without express written permission.

NEW Employee Spotlight : Bethany Briggs

Get To Know Our Graphic Designer, Bethany!

What is one thing Bethany could never live without? Her FAMILY

(Left to Right -Thomas, Shelly (Dad & Mom)

Stratton, Bethany

Zane, Kirsty

Bethany’s favorite place to be is at the lake with friends and family. It’s a lot of fun whether they go tubing, kayaking, fishing or they are just hanging out by the fire.

Bethany cannot resist petting all the animals. She is definitely a softy for fuzzy critters. She has a pooch of her own named Willow.

Bethany was born into a racing family. Her dad raced and now her brother races midgets and sprint cars. It’s a very intense sport but once you get into it it’s hard to not want more! Forever cheering for #71, Stratton Briggs! 🙂

Bethany’s favorite place she has traveled to is New Orleans. She says that words can’t describe how beautiful New Orleans was. Street performers, local artists and amazing architecture had her in awe of the city. She stopped at Cafe Du Monde for some mouth watering beignets and coffee and was not disappointed! She recommends if you get the chance to visit New Orleans, Beignets from Cafe Du Monde.

Picture of Bethany is owned by Leslie Nicole Photography and may not be republished without express written permission.

All other images are Bethany’s own & may not be republished without express written permission.

Last week, we were blessed to travel to the lovely Dominican Republic home to gorgeous white sand beaches, gracious hospitality, and very spotty almost non-existent wi-fi.

We were very excited for our nine-year-old son to experience his first trip out of the country. Between the three of us, we had 2 cell phones, one work laptop, our family laptop, an iPad, and a Fitbit.

Upon arrival, like bonafide tourists, we were snapping photos of the palm trees and buildings and ourselves with tropical beverages. And what would one do with these photos next, upload to Facebook, of course! No such luck. Downloading…. Error…. Unable to process….

I joined the gaggle of other guests at the lobby desk in search of wi-fi codes. In a resort that attracted visitors from various parts of the world, I could see this desire to connect is not unique to the USA.

But alas $40 per day!?! I’ll pass, thanks. Reluctantly, we unplugged for the week.

In any language or even without words, you can see the disconnect being connected has created. It’s no wonder this video has been viewed over 50 million times.

In our week of being unplugged, we discovered:
1. We didn’t miss it that much. (Okay… maybe after day 2)
2. We still like each other. Whew!
3. Work went on fine without us. The people we trusted did what they were supposed to do.
4. We spent more time really appreciating the beauty of our surroundings instead of just photographing the sights for social media.
5. We made new friends poolside from all over the USA, Canada, and France. We learned about their culture and even picked up a few new words in other languages.
6. We got a real kick of watching people take selfies (one gal must have taken 40 selfies in the pool) and Snapchat (one musclebound dude nearly broke a leg on sandcastle while capturing his best kissy face on camera). Very entertaining!
7. Without tracking it via the device, we’re pretty sure we logged 20k-30k steps/day. There’s a lot more time to walk and discover when your heads not down on a screen!
8. On the four-hour flight home (GASP) we played cards and talked while others watched movies solo they had downloaded in preparation.
9. By day 7, disembarking at home and observing entire families deeply entranced in their phones, we found ourselves reflecting on what impact all this connectivity is having on real social relationships.

I hope that you will get the chance to be #unplugged if not, by force, then perhaps by choice. In a recent survey, 29% of cell owners describe their cell phone as “something they can’t imagine living without.” I assure you, you can. It’s quite refreshing!

Challenge: Set aside a day each week to be device free. Can’t do a whole day? Start with an hour each morning.

“Almost everything will work again if you unplug it for a few minutes, including you.” —Anne Lamott

All images belong to Adventure Photos & may not be republished without express written permission.

5 Steps to Up Your Road Warrior Game

According to the Washington Post the average commute for most employees has sharply risen over the last couple years to an average of 27 minutes in 2015.

I for one can attest that I spend hours a week behind the wheel driving to and from appointments.

Back in college, I was spending several hours a day using Chicago’s public transportation.  I took advantage of the metro in the morning, plus the El train, and bus in the evening.  Between two part-time jobs, that commuting time was the only study time I could carve out.  I can only imagine if I had the technology available today back then.  How much more could I have accomplished? Or how much more would I have been distracted?  Maybe I would have said “I’ll just check my Facebook real quick”

If you’re lucky enough to have public transportation, surf away.

No public transportation, maybe find a trustworthy a carpool buddy.carpooling-done-wrong

For the rest of us suburbanites burning up the highways and by-ways, here are five ways to make the most of your drive time:

#1.  Dashboard education.   With nearly an hour in the car every day what could you learn?  A foreign language? The history of the world?  And in just 90 days you could finish the entire Bible.  Audible app offers a monthly subscription service to download the latest in audio books.  There are abundant free resources from your local library including overdrive and hoopla apps.  Listen to a podcast or a Ted talk to develop your skills or learn something new.

#2.  Rekindle relationships.  Take this time to personally phone someone you haven’t spoken to in a while. Don’t just check in on their Facebook page and assume you know what’s going on in their life. Plug in the Bluetooth and give them a call.

#3. Write a book. Well, not literally.  I don’t advocate writing while driving! But in all my hours spent on the road I’ll attest I’ve seen it! I’ve even seen people reading a novel while driving.   Please don’t–for our safety!  But seriously there are apps for translating talk to text.  Check out the free app Dragon dictation.  Each day dictate a short story by the end of the year you may have enough to build your own novel or biography.

#4.  Clear the clutter.  So you finished your long commute  just to encounter a completely full email inbox.   Not the most motivating and invigorating way to start the day.   Take advantage of apps that will read your emails out loud and prompt with delete, save, spam, etc.   Ah, done!

#5.  Meditation.  Turn off the radio.  Tune in to the moment.  Eyes open and on the road, folks. Think about your accomplishments for the week.  Give yourself a pat on the back.  Set goals.  Focus your priorities.  Is what I’ve done today getting me closet or further from my life goals.  Take in a glorious sunrise for a moment.  Appreciate the change of season.  I’ve talked to many a business professional who enjoy their 30 minute commute home to decompress from a stressful day.   No need to bring home work stuff.   Work through relationship challenges in your mind and decide how you’ll positively address them in the coming day.

May I add things not to do: apply makeup, text , eat a meal.  (we’re all guilty at some point–but let’s stop!)

Somebody wise once said “life’s not about the journey but the destination”. I say, “yeah but at least we can make the most of it!”

American Commute source:

Carpooling source:

Contributed by Heather Craaybeek

My Home Before & After

One year ago this week I closed on my first home.  Here is a little of what I’ve accomplished so far:

KITCHEN – Probably the most dramatic, I basically started with a blank slate. Added a fridge, stove, wall mount microwave and dishwasher. Installed new cabinets on the left side and painted the existing cabinets so that they all matched. With the help of my uncles installed a new counter top, sink, faucet and garbage disposal. I added subway tile back splash and bought a kitchen island for more counter top space.

DOWNSTAIRS BATHROOM – I didn’t have to do as much to update the downstairs bathroom. I gave it a fresh coat of paint, replaced the hardware on the vanity and added a tile back splash.

DINING ROOM – I am still on the hunt for the perfect junk to decorate with.

SUN-ROOM – I painted the walls and added wooden blinds. I also restored the stain glass light.

OFFICE – The smallest room that had the most work put into it. The original wooden floor had carpet on it. I decided that I wanted to have all wooden floors on the main floor. So I got rid of the carpet and started the process of restoring the floor. The finished product was worth it.

LIVING ROOM – This room is mostly complete. I painted the walls, put up blinds, and enjoyed finding places for all of my antiques and furniture. It came together pretty quickly and I am pleased with the finished product.

There are plenty of project that still need to be done. I am excited to continue making this home into the perfect space for me!

Contributed by Contributed by Caitlin Tuohy.

All images are the author’s own & may not be republished without express written permission.


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Bruce Springsteen cancels show in Greensboro, NC in response to HB2 law

Bruce Springsteen has decided to cancel this Sunday’s show in Greensboro, NC in response to the new HB2 law that was recently passed in the state. In a letter on his website, he explains his decision to do so:

As you, my fans, know I’m scheduled to play in Greensboro, North Carolina this Sunday. As we also know, North Carolina has just passed HB2, which the media are referring to as the “bathroom” law. HB2 — known officially as the Public Facilities Privacy and Security Act — dictates which bathrooms transgender people are permitted to use. Just as important, the law also attacks the rights of LGBT citizens to sue when their human rights are violated in the workplace. No other group of North Carolinians faces such a burden. To my mind, it’s an attempt by people who cannot stand the progress our country has made in recognizing the human rights of all of our citizens to overturn that progress. Right now, there are many groups, businesses, and individuals in North Carolina working to oppose and overcome these negative developments. Taking all of this into account, I feel that this is a time for me and the band to show solidarity for those freedom fighters. As a result, and with deepest apologies to our dedicated fans in Greensboro, we have canceled our show scheduled for Sunday, April 10th. Some things are more important than a rock show and this fight against prejudice and bigotry — which is happening as I write — is one of them. It is the strongest means I have for raising my voice in opposition to those who continue to push us backwards instead of forwards.

He clarifies that tickets will be refunded at point of purchase.

The rock icon joins a number of TV/film production companies – including Lionsgate, A+E, Fox, Miramax, and The Weinstein Company – as well as the NHL and the NBA, who are threatening to remove Charlotte’s 2017 All-Star Game, in boycotting the state due to this new law.

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TagSnapchat Ads

The 6 Types of Snapchat Ads You Should Know About

By Anne Felicitas, web content editor at AdvertiseMint, a Facebook advertising agency Because Snapchat advertising is currently not as popular as Facebook and Google advertising, data, guides, how-tos, and other information about Snapchat ads are scarce. With this lack of information comes the lack of knowledge—you likely know so little about Snapchat ads. Two types of Snapchat ads exist:...


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The Impact Breast Cancer Has On Young Survivors’ Careers

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How does a diagnosis, treatment and recovery affect a young survivor’s career prospective? It’s not an easy road to recovery, taking valuable time away from the work force to heal and get stronger post chemo.

Watch this interesting video as a few young survivors are interviewed about their experiences.

Young Mom Of Two Survived Breast Cancer, Heart Failure, And Two Strokes In One Year: Click “Next” below!

The Breast Cancer Site is a place where supporters and survivors come together to help fight breast cancer. In addition to sharing personal stories of hope, shopping for the cause, and signing petitions, visitors can take just a moment each day to click on a pink button to provide free mammograms for women in need. Visit The Breast Cancer Site and click today - it's free!
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Tag: Online Mutual funds

SEBI allows MFs to separate distressed assets. What does it mean and what will be its impact?

In the last Board meeting of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the concept of Side-pocketing was permitted for the first time. What exactly is side pocketing and how does it help mutual fund. Typically, debt funds hold an array of debt securities in their portfolio which include government debt, state government paper,