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Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1735

Search results for: Monte Carlo simulations

1735 The Contribution of Edgeworth, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Data

Authors: Edlira Donefski, Tina Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi

Edgeworth Approximation, Bootstrap, and Monte Carlo Simulations have considerable impacts on achieving certain results related to different problems taken into study. In our paper, we have treated a financial case related to the effect that has the components of a cash-flow of one of the most successful businesses in the world, as the financial activity, operational activity, and investment activity to the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the three-months period. To have a better view of this case, we have created a vector autoregression model, and after that, we have generated the impulse responses in the terms of asymptotic analysis (Edgeworth Approximation), Monte Carlo Simulations, and residual bootstrap based on the standard errors of every series created. The generated results consisted of the common tendencies for the three methods applied that consequently verified the advantage of the three methods in the optimization of the model that contains many variants.

Keywords: autoregression, bootstrap, edgeworth expansion, Monte Carlo method

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1734 Monte Carlo Simulations of LSO/YSO for Dose Evaluation in Photon Beam Radiotherapy

Authors: H. Donya

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques play a fundamental role in radiotherapy. A two non-water-equivalent of different media were used to evaluate the dose in water. For such purpose, Lu2SiO5 (LSO) and Y2SiO5 (YSO) orthosilicates scintillators are chosen for MC simulation using Penelope code. To get higher efficiency in dose calculation, variance reduction techniques are discussed. Overall results of this investigation ensured that the LSO/YSO bi-media a good combination to tackle over-response issue in dynamic photon radiotherapy.

Keywords: Lu2SiO5 (LSO) and Y2SiO5 (YSO) orthosilicates, Monte Carlo, correlated sampling, radiotherapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 288
1733 2D Monte Carlo Simulation of Grain Growth under Transient Conditions

Authors: K. R. Phaneesh, Anirudh Bhat, G. Mukherjee, K. T. Kashyap

Extensive Monte Carlo Potts model simulations were performed on 2D square lattice to investigate the effects of simulated higher temperatures effects on grain growth kinetics. A range of simulation temperatures (KTs) were applied on a matrix of size 10002 with Q-state 64, dispersed with a wide range of second phase particles, ranging from 0.001 to 0.1, and then run to 100,000 Monte Carlo steps. The average grain size, the largest grain size and the grain growth exponent were evaluated for all particle fractions and simulated temperatures. After evaluating several growth parameters, the critical temperature for a square lattice, with eight nearest neighbors, was found to be KTs = 0.4.

Keywords: average grain size, critical temperature, grain growth exponent, Monte Carlo steps

Procedia PDF Downloads 374
1732 Monte Carlo Pathwise Sensitivities for Barrier Options with Application to Coco-Bond Calibration

Authors: Thomas Gerstner, Bastian von Harrach, Daniel Roth

The Monte Carlo pathwise sensitivities approach is well established for smooth payoff functions. In this work, we present a new Monte Carlo algorithm that is able to calculate the pathwise sensitivities for discontinuous payoff functions. Our main tool is the one-step survival idea of Glasserman and Staum. Although this technique yields to new terms per observation, while differentiating, the algorithm is still efficient. As an application, we use the results for a two-dimensional calibration of a Coco-Bond, which we model with different types of discretely monitored barrier options.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, discretely monitored barrier options, pathwise sensitivities, Coco-Bond

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
1731 Comparison of FNTD and OSLD Detectors' Responses to Light Ion Beams Using Monte Carlo Simulations and Exprimental Data

Authors: M. R. Akbari, H. Yousefnia, A. Ghasemi

Al2O3:C,Mg fluorescent nuclear track detector (FNTD) and Al2O3:C optically stimulated luminescence detector (OSLD) are becoming two of the applied detectors in ion dosimetry. Therefore, the response of these detectors to hadron beams is highly of interest in radiation therapy (RT) using ion beams. In this study, these detectors' responses to proton and Helium-4 ion beams were compared using Monte Carlo simulations. The calculated data for proton beams were compared with Markus ionization chamber (IC) measurement (in water phantom) from M.D. Anderson proton therapy center. Monte Carlo simulations were performed via the FLUKA code (version 2011.2-17). The detectors were modeled in cylindrical shape at various depths of the water phantom without shading each other for obtaining relative depth dose in the phantom. Mono-energetic parallel ion beams in different incident energies (100 MeV/n to 250 MeV/n) were collided perpendicularly on the phantom surface. For proton beams, the results showed that the simulated detectors have over response relative to IC measurements in water phantom. In all cases, there were good agreements between simulated ion ranges in the water with calculated and experimental results reported by the literature. For proton, maximum peak to entrance dose ratio in the simulated water phantom was 4.3 compared with about 3 obtained from IC measurements. For He-4 ion beams, maximum peak to entrance ratio calculated by both detectors was less than 3.6 in all energies. Generally, it can be said that FLUKA is a good tool to calculate Al2O3:C,Mg FNTD and Al2O3:C OSLD detectors responses to therapeutic proton and He-4 ion beams. It can also calculate proton and He-4 ion ranges with a reasonable accuracy.

Keywords: comparison, FNTD and OSLD detectors response, light ion beams, Monte Carlo simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 218
1730 Simulation of the Large Hadrons Collisions Using Monte Carlo Tools

Authors: E. Al Daoud

In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 200
1729 Comparative Study of Dose Calculation Accuracy in Bone Marrow Using Monte Carlo Method

Authors: Marzieh Jafarzadeh, Fatemeh Rezaee

Introduction: The effect of ionizing radiation on human health can be effective for genomic integrity and cell viability. It also increases the risk of cancer and malignancy. Therefore, X-ray behavior and absorption dose calculation are considered. One of the applicable tools for calculating and evaluating the absorption dose in human tissues is Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo offers a straightforward way to simulate and integrate, and because it is simple and straightforward, Monte Carlo is easy to use. The Monte Carlo BEAMnrc code is one of the most common diagnostic X-ray simulation codes used in this study. Method: In one of the understudy hospitals, a certain number of CT scan images of patients who had previously been imaged were extracted from the hospital database. BEAMnrc software was used for simulation. The simulation of the head of the device with the energy of 0.09 MeV with 500 million particles was performed, and the output data obtained from the simulation was applied for phantom construction using CT CREATE software. The percentage of depth dose (PDD) was calculated using STATE DOSE was then compared with international standard values. Results and Discussion: The ratio of surface dose to depth dose (D/Ds) in the measured energy was estimated to be about 4% to 8% for bone and 3% to 7% for bone marrow. Conclusion: MC simulation is an efficient and accurate method for simulating bone marrow and calculating the absorbed dose.

Keywords: Monte Carlo, absorption dose, BEAMnrc, bone marrow

Procedia PDF Downloads 53
1728 A New Method to Estimate the Low Income Proportion: Monte Carlo Simulations

Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords: poverty line, risk of poverty, auxiliary variable, ratio method

Procedia PDF Downloads 283
1727 Statistical Study and Simulation of 140 Kv X– Ray Tube by Monte Carlo

Authors: Mehdi Homayouni, Karim Adinehvand, Bakhtiar Azadbakht

In this study, we used Monte Carlo code (MCNP4C) that is a general method, for simulation, electron source and electric field, a disc source with 0.05 cm radius in direct of anode are used, radius of disc source show focal spot of X-ray tube that here is 0.05 cm. In this simulation, the anode is from tungsten with 18.9 g/cm3 density and angle of the anode is 18°. We simulated X-ray tube for 140 kv. For increasing of speed data acquisition, we use F5 tally. With determination the exact position of F5 tally in the program, outputs are acquired. In this spectrum the start point is about 0.02 Mev, the absorption edges are about 0.06 Mev and 0.07 Mev, and average energy is about 0.05 Mev.

Keywords: X-spectrum, simulation, Monte Carlo, tube

Procedia PDF Downloads 400
1726 Reducing Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Estimated Fatigue Damage in Offshore Wind Turbines Using FORM

Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, Monte Carlo, simulation, wind turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 145
1725 Monte Carlo Methods and Statistical Inference of Multitype Branching Processes

Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 270
1724 Study of Transport in Electronic Devices with Stochastic Monte Carlo Method: Modeling and Simulation along with Submicron Gate (Lg=0.5um)

Authors: N. Massoum, B. Bouazza

In this paper, we have developed a numerical simulation model to describe the electrical properties of GaInP MESFET with submicron gate (Lg = 0.5 µm). This model takes into account the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the load in the short channel and the law effect of mobility as a function of electric field. Simulation software based on a stochastic method such as Monte Carlo has been established. The results are discussed and compared with those of the experiment. The result suggests experimentally that, in a very small gate length in our devices (smaller than 40 nm), short-channel tunneling explains the degradation of transistor performance, which was previously enhanced by velocity overshoot.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, transient electron transport, MESFET device, simulation software

Procedia PDF Downloads 385
1723 On Estimating the Headcount Index by Using the Logistic Regression Estimator

Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, Monte Carlo simulations, sample

Procedia PDF Downloads 293
1722 Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulation of ZnSe Homoepitaxial Growth and Characterization

Authors: Hamid Khachab, Yamani Abdelkafi, Mouna Barhmi

The epitaxial growth has great important in the fabricate of the new semi-conductors devices and upgrading many factors, such as the quality of crystallization and efficiency with their deferent types and the most effective epitaxial technique is the molecular beam epitaxial. The MBE growth modeling allows to confirm the experiments results out by atomic beam and to analyze the microscopic phenomena. In of our work, we determined the growth processes specially the ZnSe epitaxial technique by Kinetic Monte Carlo method and we also give observations that are made in real time at the growth temperature using reflection high energy electron diffraction (RHEED) and photoemission current.

Keywords: molecular beam epitaxy, II-VI, morpholy, photoemission, RHEED, simulation, kinetic Monte Carlo, ZnSe

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
1721 Monte Carlo and Biophysics Analysis in a Criminal Trial

Authors: Luca Indovina, Carmela Coppola, Carlo Altucci, Riccardo Barberi, Rocco Romano

In this paper a real court case, held in Italy at the Court of Nola, in which a correct physical description, conducted with both a Monte Carlo and biophysical analysis, would have been sufficient to arrive at conclusions confirmed by documentary evidence, is considered. This will be an example of how forensic physics can be useful in confirming documentary evidence in order to reach hardly questionable conclusions. This was a libel trial in which the defendant, Mr. DS (Defendant for Slander), had falsely accused one of his neighbors, Mr. OP (Offended Person), of having caused him some damages. The damages would have been caused by an external plaster piece that would have detached from the neighbor’s property and would have hit Mr DS while he was in his garden, much more than a meter far away from the facade of the building from which the plaster piece would have detached. In the trial, Mr. DS claimed to have suffered a scratch on his forehead, but he never showed the plaster that had hit him, nor was able to tell from where the plaster would have arrived. Furthermore, Mr. DS presented a medical certificate with a diagnosis of contusion of the cerebral cortex. On the contrary, the images of Mr. OP’s security cameras do not show any movement in the garden of Mr. DS in a long interval of time (about 2 hours) around the time of the alleged accident, nor do they show any people entering or coming out from the house of Mr. DS in the same interval of time. Biophysical analysis shows that both the diagnosis of the medical certificate and the wound declared by the defendant, already in conflict with each other, are not compatible with the fall of external plaster pieces too small to be found. The wind was at a level 1 of the Beaufort scale, that is, unable to raise even dust (level 4 of the Beaufort scale). Therefore, the motion of the plaster pieces can be described as a projectile motion, whereas collisions with the building cornice can be treated using Newtons law of coefficients of restitution. Numerous numerical Monte Carlo simulations show that the pieces of plaster would not have been able to reach even the garden of Mr. DS, let alone a distance over 1.30 meters. Results agree with the documentary evidence (images of Mr. OP’s security cameras) that Mr. DS could not have been hit by plaster pieces coming from Mr. OP’s property.

Keywords: biophysics analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, Newton’s law of restitution, projectile motion

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1720 Simulation as a Problem-Solving Spotter for System Reliability

Authors: Wheyming Tina Song, Chi-Hao Hong, Peisyuan Lin

An important performance measure for stochastic manufacturing networks is the system reliability, defined as the probability that the production output meets or exceeds a specified demand. The system parameters include the capacity of each workstation and numbers of the conforming parts produced in each workstation. We establish that eighteen archival publications, containing twenty-one examples, provide incorrect values of the system reliability. The author recently published the Song Rule, which provides the correct analytical system-reliability value; it is, however, computationally inefficient for large networks. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation (implemented in C and Flexsim) to provide estimates for the above-mentioned twenty-one examples. The simulation estimates are consistent with the analytical solution for small networks but is computationally efficient for large networks. We argue here for three advantages of Monte Carlo simulation: (1) understanding stochastic systems, (2) validating analytical results, and (3) providing estimates even when analytical and numerical approaches are overly expensive in computation. Monte Carlo simulation could have detected the published analysis errors.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, analytical results, leading digit rule, standard error

Procedia PDF Downloads 220
1719 Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis of Dynamic Positioning System through Monte Carlo Approach

Authors: A. S. Cheliyan, S. K. Bhattacharyya

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) is employed in marine vessels of the offshore oil and gas industry. It is a computer controlled system to automatically maintain a ship’s position and heading by using its own thrusters. Reliability assessment of the same can be analyzed through conventional fault tree. However, the complex behaviour like sequence failure, redundancy management and priority of failing of events cannot be analyzed by the conventional fault trees. The Dynamic Fault Tree (DFT) addresses these shortcomings of conventional Fault Tree by defining additional gates called dynamic gates. Monte Carlo based simulation approach has been adopted for the dynamic gates. This method of realistic modeling of DPS gives meaningful insight into the system reliability and the ability to improve the same.

Keywords: dynamic positioning system, dynamic fault tree, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability assessment

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1718 A Computational Study of the Electron Transport in HgCdTe Bulk Semiconductor

Authors: N. Dahbi, M. Daoudi

This paper deals with the use of computational method based on Monte Carlo simulation in order to investigate the transport phenomena of the electron in HgCdTe narrow band gap semiconductor. Via this method we can evaluate the time dependence of the transport parameters: velocity, energy and mobility of electrons through matter (HgCdTe).

Keywords: Monte Carlo, transport parameters, HgCdTe, computational mechanics

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
1717 A Strategy for the Application of Second-Order Monte Carlo Algorithms to Petroleum Exploration and Production Projects

Authors: Obioma Uche

Due to the recent volatility in oil & gas prices as well as increased development of non-conventional resources, it has become even more essential to critically evaluate the profitability of petroleum prospects prior to making any investment decisions. Traditionally, simple Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms have been used to randomly sample probability distributions of economic and geological factors (e.g. price, OPEX, CAPEX, reserves, productive life, etc.) in order to obtain probability distributions for profitability metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV). In recent years, second-order MC algorithms have been shown to offer an advantage over simple MC techniques due to the added consideration of uncertainties associated with the probability distributions of the relevant variables. Here, a strategy for the application of the second-order MC technique to a case study is demonstrated to analyze its effectiveness as a tool for portfolio management.

Keywords: Monte Carlo algorithms, portfolio management, profitability, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
1716 Evaluation of Reliability Indices Using Monte Carlo Simulation Accounting Time to Switch

Authors: Sajjad Asefi, Hossein Afrakhte

This paper presents the evaluation of reliability indices of an electrical distribution system using Monte Carlo simulation technique accounting Time To Switch (TTS) for each section. In this paper, the distribution system has been assumed by accounting random repair time omission. For simplicity, we have assumed the reliability analysis to be based on exponential law. Each segment has a specified rate of failure (λ) and repair time (r) which will give us the mean up time and mean down time of each section in distribution system. After calculating the modified mean up time (MUT) in years, mean down time (MDT) in hours and unavailability (U) in h/year, TTS have been added to the time which the system is not available, i.e. MDT. In this paper, we have assumed the TTS to be a random variable with Log-Normal distribution.

Keywords: distribution system, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, repair time, time to switch (TTS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 213
1715 Microdosimetry in Biological Cells: A Monte Carlo Method

Authors: Hamidreza Jabal Ameli, Anahita Movahedi

Purpose: In radionuclide therapy, radioactive atoms are coupled to monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) for treating cancer tumor while limiting radiation to healthy tissues. We know that tumoral and normal tissues are not equally sensitive to radiation. In fact, biological effects such as cellular repair processes or the presence of less radiosensitive cells such as hypoxic cells should be taken account. For this reason, in this paper, we want to calculate biological effect dose (BED) inside tumoral area and healthy cells around tumors. Methods: In this study, deposited doses of a radionuclide, gold-198, inside cells lattice and surrounding healthy tissues were calculated with Monte Carlo method. The elemental compositions and density of malignant and healthy tissues were obtained from ICRU Report 44. For reaching to real condition of oxygen effects, the necrosis and hypoxia area inside tumors has been assessed. Results: With regard to linear-quadratic expression which was defined in Monte Carlo, results showed that a large amount of BED is deposited in the well-oxygenated part of the hypoxia area compared to necrosis area. Moreover, there is a significant difference between the curves of absorbed dose with BED and without BED.

Keywords: biological dose, monte carlo, hypoxia, radionuclide therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
1714 A Dose Distribution Approach Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Dosimetric Accuracy Calculation for Treating the Lung Tumor

Authors: Md Abdullah Al Mashud, M. Tariquzzaman, M. Jahangir Alam, Tapan Kumar Godder, M. Mahbubur Rahman

This paper presents a Monte Carlo (MC) method-based dose distributions on lung tumor for 6 MV photon beam to improve the dosimetric accuracy for cancer treatment. The polystyrene which is tissue equivalent material to the lung tumor density is used in this research. In the empirical calculations, TRS-398 formalism of IAEA has been used, and the setup was made according to the ICRU recommendations. The research outcomes were compared with the state-of-the-art experimental results. From the experimental results, it is observed that the proposed based approach provides more accurate results and improves the accuracy than the existing approaches. The average %variation between measured and TPS simulated values was obtained 1.337±0.531, which shows a substantial improvement comparing with the state-of-the-art technology.

Keywords: lung tumour, Monte Carlo, polystyrene, Elekta synergy, Monaco planning system

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
1713 An Insite to the Probabilistic Assessment of Reserves in Conventional Reservoirs

Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean,, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
1712 Effect of Rainflow Cycle Number on Fatigue Lifetime of an Arm of Vehicle Suspension System

Authors: Hatem Mrad, Mohamed Bouazara, Fouad Erchiqui

Fatigue, is considered as one of the main cause of mechanical properties degradation of mechanical parts. Probability and reliability methods are appropriate for fatigue analysis using uncertainties that exist in fatigue material or process parameters. Current work deals with the study of the effect of the number and counting Rainflow cycle on fatigue lifetime (cumulative damage) of an upper arm of the vehicle suspension system. The major part of the fatigue damage induced in suspension arm is caused by two main classes of parameters. The first is related to the materials properties and the second is the road excitation or the applied force of the passenger’s number. Therefore, Young's modulus and road excitation are selected as input parameters to conduct repetitive simulations by Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate these parameters. Response surface method is established according to fatigue lifetime of each combination of input parameters according to strain-life method. A PYTHON script was developed to automatize finite element simulations of the upper arm according to a design of experiments.

Keywords: fatigue, monte carlo, rainflow cycle, response surface, suspension system

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
1711 Estimation of Normalized Glandular Doses Using a Three-Layer Mammographic Phantom

Authors: Kuan-Jen Lai, Fang-Yi Lin, Shang-Rong Huang, Yun-Zheng Zeng, Po-Chieh Hsu, Jay Wu

The normalized glandular dose (DgN) estimates the energy deposition of mammography in clinical practice. The Monte Carlo simulations frequently use uniformly mixed phantom for calculating the conversion factor. However, breast tissues are not uniformly distributed, leading to errors of conversion factor estimation. This study constructed a three-layer phantom to estimated more accurate of normalized glandular dose. In this study, MCNP code (Monte Carlo N-Particles code) was used to create the geometric structure. We simulated three types of target/filter combinations (Mo/Mo, Mo/Rh, Rh/Rh), six voltages (25 ~ 35 kVp), six HVL parameters and nine breast phantom thicknesses (2 ~ 10 cm) for the three-layer mammographic phantom. The conversion factor for 25%, 50% and 75% glandularity was calculated. The error of conversion factors compared with the results of the American College of Radiology (ACR) was within 6%. For Rh/Rh, the difference was within 9%. The difference between the 50% average glandularity and the uniform phantom was 7.1% ~ -6.7% for the Mo/Mo combination, voltage of 27 kVp, half value layer of 0.34 mmAl, and breast thickness of 4 cm. According to the simulation results, the regression analysis found that the three-layer mammographic phantom at 0% ~ 100% glandularity can be used to accurately calculate the conversion factors. The difference in glandular tissue distribution leads to errors of conversion factor calculation. The three-layer mammographic phantom can provide accurate estimates of glandular dose in clinical practice.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, mammography, normalized glandular dose, glandularity

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1710 Simulation of Gamma Rays Attenuation Coefficient for Some common Shielding Materials Using Monte Carlo Program

Authors: Cherief Houria, Fouka Mourad

In this work, the simulation of the radiation attenuation is carried out in a photon detector consisting of different common shielding material using a Monte Carlo program called PTM. The aim of the study is to investigate the effect of atomic weight and the thickness of shielding materials on the gamma radiation attenuation ability. The linear attenuation coefficients of Aluminum (Al), Iron (Fe), and lead (Pb) elements were evaluated at photons energy of 661:7KeV that are considered to be emitted from a standard radioactive point source Cs 137. The experimental measurements have been performed for three materials to obtain these linear attenuation coefficients, using a Gamma NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. Our results have been compared with the simulation results of the linear attenuation coefficient using the XCOM database and Geant4 codes and reveal that they are well agreed with both simulation data.

Keywords: gamma photon, Monte Carlo program, radiation attenuation, shielding material, the linear attenuation coefficient

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1709 A Novel Probablistic Strategy for Modeling Photovoltaic Based Distributed Generators

Authors: Engy A. Mohamed, Y. G. Hegazy

This paper presents a novel algorithm for modeling photovoltaic based distributed generators for the purpose of optimal planning of distribution networks. The proposed algorithm utilizes sequential Monte Carlo method in order to accurately consider the stochastic nature of photovoltaic based distributed generators. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB environment and the results obtained are presented and discussed.

Keywords: comulative distribution function, distributed generation, Monte Carlo

Procedia PDF Downloads 441
1708 Bayesian Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley's Approximation Based on Type-I Censored Data

Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

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1707 Monte Carlo Estimation of Heteroscedasticity and Periodicity Effects in a Panel Data Regression Model

Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: audit fee lagrange multiplier test, heteroscedasticity, lagrange multiplier test, Monte-Carlo scheme, periodicity

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1706 Resistance and Sub-Resistances of RC Beams Subjected to Multiple Failure Modes

Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

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Title: A Comprehensive Review of Detection Methods for SARS-CoV-2
Author(s): Eftekhari, Aziz
Alipour, Mahdieh
Chodari, Leila
Maleki Dizaj, Solmaz
Ardalan, Mohammadreza
Samiei, Mohammad
Sharifi, Simin
Zununi Vahed, Sepideh
Huseynova, Irada
Khalilov, Rovshan
Ahmadian, Elham
Cucchiarini, Magali
Language: English
Title: Microorganisms
Volume: 9
Issue: 2
Publisher/Platform: MDPI
Year of Publication: 2021
Free key words: COVID-19
DDC notations: 610 Medicine and health
Publikation type: Journal Article
Abstract: Recently, the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the SARSCoV-2 virus, in China and its subsequent spread across the world has caused numerous infections and deaths and disrupted normal social activity. Presently, various techniques are used for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with various advantages and weaknesses to each. In this paper, we summarize promising methods, such as reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), serological testing, point-of-care testing, smartphone surveillance of infectious diseases, nanotechnology-based approaches, biosensors, amplicon-based metagenomic sequencing, smartphone, and wastewaterbased epidemiology (WBE) that can also be utilized for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we discuss principles, advantages, and disadvantages of these detection methods, and highlight the potential methods for the development of additional techniques and products for early and fast detection of SARS-CoV-2.
DOI of the first publication: 10.3390/microorganisms9020232
Link to this record: urn:nbn:de:bsz:291--ds-334491
ISSN: 2076-2607
Date of registration: 1-Mar-2021
Faculty: M - Medizinische Fakultät
Department: M - Orthopädie
Professorship: M - Prof. Dr. Henning Madry
Collections:SciDok - Der Wissenschaftsserver der Universität des Saarlandes

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Interconnected network motifs control podocyte morphology and kidney function

Sci Signal. 2014 Feb 4;7(311):ra12. doi: 10.1126/scisignal.2004621.

Podocytes are kidney cells with specialized morphology that is required for glomerular filtration. Diseases, such as diabetes, or drug exposure that causes disruption of the podocyte foot process morphology results in kidney pathophysiology. Proteomic analysis of glomeruli isolated from rats with puromycin-induced kidney disease and control rats indicated that protein kinase A (PKA), which is activated by adenosine 3',5'-monophosphate (cAMP), is a key regulator of podocyte morphology and function. In podocytes, cAMP signaling activates cAMP response element-binding protein (CREB) to enhance expression of the gene encoding a differentiation marker, synaptopodin, a protein that associates with actin and promotes its bundling. We constructed and experimentally verified a β-adrenergic receptor-driven network with multiple feedback and feedforward motifs that controls CREB activity. To determine how the motifs interacted to regulate gene expression, we mapped multicompartment dynamical models, including information about protein subcellular localization, onto the network topology using Petri net formalisms. These computational analyses indicated that the juxtaposition of multiple feedback and feedforward motifs enabled the prolonged CREB activation necessary for synaptopodin expression and actin bundling. Drug-induced modulation of these motifs in diseased rats led to recovery of normal morphology and physiological function in vivo. Thus, analysis of regulatory motifs using network dynamics can provide insights into pathophysiology that enable predictions for drug intervention strategies to treat kidney disease.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Cells, Cultured
  • Cyclic AMP Response Element-Binding Protein / metabolism
  • Cyclic AMP-Dependent Protein Kinases / metabolism
  • Gene Expression
  • Gene Regulatory Networks
  • Immunoblotting
  • Kidney / metabolism*
  • Kidney / pathology
  • Kidney / physiopathology
  • Kidney Diseases / chemically induced
  • Kidney Diseases / genetics
  • Kidney Diseases / metabolism*
  • Male
  • Membrane Proteins / genetics
  • Membrane Proteins / metabolism
  • Mice
  • Microfilament Proteins / genetics
  • Microfilament Proteins / metabolism
  • Microscopy, Electron
  • Podocytes / metabolism*
  • Podocytes / pathology
  • Podocytes / ultrastructure
  • Proteomics / methods
  • Puromycin
  • Rats
  • Rats, Sprague-Dawley
  • Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
  • Signal Transduction*

  • Cyclic AMP Response Element-Binding Protein
  • Membrane Proteins
  • Microfilament Proteins
  • Synpo protein, mouse
  • nephrin
  • Puromycin
  • Cyclic AMP-Dependent Protein Kinases


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Published: 01 April 2018
American Mineralogist (2018) 103 (4): 610–622.
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A crucial constraint on the evolution of the ca. 1100 Ma Midcontinent Rift (MCR) in North America comes from the Jacobsville Sandstone, Bayfield Group, and other equivalent sedimentary rocks (JBE) that overlie the volcanics and sediments deposited in the MCR basin near Lake Superior. The MCR began extending ca. 1120 Ma and failed—ceased extending—at ca. 1096 Ma, although volcanism continued for ∼10 m.y. The JBE’s age is poorly constrained, with proposed ages ranging from ca. 1100 to ca. 542 Ma (i.e., youngest Precambrian). It has been proposed that the JBE were deposited shortly prior to or during the time when the MCR failed due to regional compression occurring ca. 1060 Ma as part of the Grenville orogeny (1300–980 Ma). However, the JBE are not conformable with the youngest rift-filling strata and differ compositionally from them. We present an analysis of 2050 new detrital-zircon ages showing that the JBE are younger than 959 ± 19 Ma. Thus, the JBE and the compression recorded in them that inverted the basin postdate the Grenville orogeny and are unrelated to the rift’s failure. The JBE may be significantly, perhaps ∼200–300 m.y., younger than the maximum age from zircons and may have been deposited shortly after a Snowball Earth event.

One of the most prominent features on gravity and magnetic maps of North America is the Midcontinent Rift (MCR), composed of an extensive band of buried igneous and sedimentary rocks that outcrop near Lake Superior (Fig. 1A). To the south, the rift is deeply buried by younger sediments but is easily traced because the igneous rocks are dense and highly magnetized (King and Zietz, 1971; Hinze et al., 1992; Merino et al., 2013). The western arm extends at least to Oklahoma, and perhaps Texas and New Mexico, as evidenced by similar-age diffuse volcanism (Adams and Keller, 1994, 1996; Li et al., 2007; Loewy et al., 2011; Bright et al., 2014). The east arm goes through lower Michigan and extends southward to Alabama (Keller et al., 1982; Dickas et al., 1992; Stein et al., 2014).

Although the MCR was previously thought to have formed by isolated mid-plate volcanism and to have failed due to Grenville compression (Gordon and Hempton, 1986; Cannon, 1994; Swenson et al., 2004), recent data and analyses show that a more plausible scenario is that it formed as part of the rifting of Amazonia from Laurentia and became inactive once seafloor spreading was established (Stein et al., 2014). The rifting is shown by a cusp in Laurentia’s apparent polar wander (APW) path near the onset of MCR volcanism, recorded by the MCR’s volcanic rocks. Cusps in APW paths arise when continents rift apart and a new ocean forms between the two fragments.

The best record of the MCR’s evolution comes from the Great Lakes International Multidisciplinary Program on Crustal Evolution (GLIMPCE) of seismic-reflection studies across Lake Superior (Green et al., 1989; Hinze et al., 1992, 1997). As shown in Figure 1B, the volcanics (up to ∼20 km thick) and overlying synrift and postrift sediments (∼6 km) of the Oronto Group lie within a synclinal basin below the lake. Both the volcanics and Oronto Group rocks dip and thicken toward the basin center, with older units dipping more steeply, indicating that they were deposited as the basin subsided.

Structural modeling of these data shows an initial rift phase starting perhaps as early as ca. 1120 Ma, later than the onset of regional volcanism at ca. 1150 Ma (Heaman et al., 2007). Starting at ca. 1109 Ma (Paces and Miller, 1993; Vervoort et al., 2007), flood basalts filled a fault-controlled extending basin. In the later postrift phase, after extension ceased, starting at ca. 1096 Ma, volcanics and sediments (Oronto Group) were deposited in a thermally subsiding basin (Stein et al., 2015). Hence, volcanism continued for ∼10 m.y. after the rift failed, i.e., extension ended. Much of the synclinal structure arose from synrift and postrift subsidence rather than later compression recorded by thrust faults that inverted the basin (White, 1966, 1968; Huber, 1975; Ojakangas and Morey, 1982).

The MCR formed during the Grenville orogeny, the sequence of events occurring from ca. 1.3–0.98 Ga culminating in the assembly of Rodinia. In northeastern Laurentia, the orogeny involved discrete contractional phases, including the Shawinigan from ca. 1200 to ca. 1140 Ma, Ottawan from ca. 1090 to ca. 1030 Ma, and Rigolet from ca. 1010 to ca. 980 Ma (Carr et al., 2000; Gower and Krogh, 2002; Hynes and Rivers, 2010; Rivers, 2012; McLelland et al., 2013) (Fig. 2A). MCR extension began after the Shawinigan phase and ended before the Ottawan phase began and so was not ended by Grenville compression. MCR volcanism continued until ca. 1086 Ma (Davis and Paces, 1990), within the Ottawan, whereas subsidence probably continued beyond the Ottawan.

The dipping volcanic and sedimentary rocks filling the MCR rift basin are overlain near Lake Superior by the Jacobsville, Bayfield, and other stratigraphically equivalent sandstones such as the Fond du Lac and Hinckley Formation (JBE), the youngest of the Keweenawan Supergroup (Fig. 2B). The names of these sedimentary rock units vary regionally, reflecting both their original names and uncertain time correlations. We use “JBE” for these units collectively, and “Jacobsville” for that specific unit.

The Jacobsville Sandstone is a sequence of feldspathic and quartzose sandstones, conglomerates, siltstones, and shales, mostly from fluvial environments (although some alluvial fan deposits have been noted) (Mitchell and Sheldon, 2016). The Jacobsville Sandstone has a maximum thickness of ∼1000 m observed in drill holes, and some geophysical data have been interpreted as suggesting at least double that thickness (Kalliokoski, 1982). Overall there is a lack of basin-wide laterally continuous units or vertical trends; although the Jacobsville west of Lake Gogebic has somewhat lower quartz content and is more poorly sorted than to the east (Hedgman, 1992).

Sparse samples from two long drill-hole sections for the Jacobsville Sandstone show a weak trend of increasing quartz from the lower to the top part of the cores. Quartz/feldspar/lithics ratios from these drill holes overlap those from the Bayfield Group and Fond du Lac and Hinckley Formations, reflecting the similarities of the different JBE units (Ojakangas and Dickas, 2002). Recently, Mitchell and Sheldon (2016) have identified a sequence of lithologically distinguishable pulses within some outcrops of the Jacobsville Sandstone.

Current directions for the Jacobsville Sandstone (Kalliokoski, 1982; Hedgman, 1992; Mitchell and Sheldon, 2016) are generally northerly but vary considerably. In the Fond du Lac Formation–Hinckley–Bayfield Group, directions are mostly easterly (Ojakangas and Morey, 1982; Adamson, 1997). Given the lack of stratigraphic control, whether the different directions result from differences in time of deposition or local topography is unknown.

The age of the JBE is poorly constrained, with reported and/or interpreted ages ranging from ca. 1100 to ca. 542 Ma. MCR volcanic rocks (ca. 1.1 Ga) or older rocks are typically observed below the JBE (Kalliokoski, 1982). A maximum age constraint comes from a drill hole where Jacobsville Sandstone unconformably overlies the Oronto Group (Ojakangas and Dickas, 2002). This unconformity can also be observed directly west of L’Anse, Michigan (Hamblin, 1958). A minimum age constraint comes from the fact that the fossiliferous Late Cambrian Munising Formation unconformably overlies the Jacobsville Sandstone. Because no fossils have been identified in the JBE, they are assumed to be Precambrian.

Provenance studies (Kalliokoski, 1982; Hedgman, 1992) have concluded that the early Proterozoic rocks and Archean rocks to the south (Marquette Range Supergroup in the Gogebic Iron Range) contributed to the Jacobsville Sandstone; although Hedgman (1992) favors an additional source to the north. Recent detrital-zircon ages have shown additional sources including Grenville rocks from the east and the Wolf River Batholith of the 1.3–1.5 Ga Granite-Rhyolite province (Craddock et al., 2013).

The age of the JBE is important because it has been unclear whether the JBE should be considered genetically related to the Midcontinent Rift or to have formed much later and unrelated to the MCR. Cannon et al. (1993) proposed that the JBE’s age is ca. 1060 Ma, and thus associated with the MCR.

However, the JBE are structurally and compositionally very different from the underlying MCR sediments, suggesting that the JBE are much younger. Here we present new detrital-zircon ages from sampling during the summer of 2015 (Fig. 3); these samples support a younger age and imply that the JBE and the compression evident therein postdate the Grenville orogeny and are unrelated to the rift’s failure.

Many authors note an angular unconformity between the older Oronto and younger Bayfield Groups (Thwaites, 1912; Myers, 1971; Daniels, 1982; Adamson, 1997). Angular unconformities are observed in some seismic-reflection profiles between the JBE and older rocks (Mudrey, 1986; Milkereit et al., 1990). A strong angular unconformity between the JBE and Keweenaw volcanic rocks was also mapped near the Michigan-Wisconsin border (Cannon et al., 1993). In surface exposures, the JBE are not in contact with the Oronto Group but directly overlie older units (Fig. 2B), consistent with a significant period of erosion removing part of the Oronto Group before JBE deposition (Kalliokoski, 1982). In several locations, the relief of the underlying rocks suggests the JBE were deposited on a paleosurface that is now locally re-exhumed (Kalliokoski, 1982). JBE and Freda sandstones (youngest Oronto Group formation) are observed in stratigraphic contact only in two boreholes located on the southeast shore of Lake Superior 12 km apart (Ojakangas and Dickas, 2002). In most cases, the JBE are in fault contact with the Oronto Group.

Compositional differences between the postrift Oronto Group and the JBE may reflect a time gap between their deposition and/or differences in source region or depositional environment. The JBE are more mature in texture and mineralogy than the Oronto, including the youngest Freda Sandstone (Myers, 1971; Daniels, 1982; Kalliokoski, 1982; Dickas et al., 1989; Adamson, 1997; Ojakangas et al., 2001; Ojakangas and Dickas, 2002). The Bayfield Group Sandstones have better rounded grains and more quartz than the Freda Sandstone (Myers, 1971; Adamson, 1997). The Freda is a lithofeldspathic sandstone, and the younger Jacobsville is a feldspatholithic sandstone, with more quartz and less feldspar and lithics (Adamson, 1997; Ojakangas and Dickas, 2002). The JBE likely formed when weathering rates were higher and/or by transportation from a more distant source (Mitchell and Sheldon, 2016).

The best constraint on the JBE’s age comes from detrital-zircon grains within it, whose ages yield a maximum age of the sandstone. Craddock et al. (2013) reported 105 ages for the basal Jacobsville Sandstone near Marquette, Michigan. While the fact that the youngest age was 933 ± 18 Ma is significant with respect to provenance, single dates are considered tenuous for defining a maximum depositional age (Dickinson and Gehrels, 2009). Thus, ten additional sites (Fig. 3) were sampled and analyzed for this study, and 2050 new ages were determined. The details of spatial and temporal Jacobsville provenance evolution will be the focus of a later report. Here we focus only on the age implications of this data set.

Sandstone samples were collected from several locations through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (Fig. 3), chosen to ensure stratigraphic and geographic coverage. Samples were taken at Au Sable Falls in Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, Lake Gogebic, Hubbell, Sturgeon Falls, Jacobsville (type section), Bruce Crossing, L’Anse, Deer Lake, Munising, and Traverse Bay. About 10 kg of sandstone were collected from each locality. The samples were crushed and panned by hand. Zircons were extracted from the pan concentrate using heavy liquids and a Frantz magnetic separator.

U-Pb geochronology of zircons was conducted by laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) at the Arizona LaserChron Center (Gehrels et al., 2006, 2008). The analyses involve ablation of zircon with a Photon Machines Analyte G2 excimer laser equipped with HelEx ablation cell using a spot diameter of 20 microns. The ablated material is carried in helium into the plasma source of an Element2 HR ICPMS, which sequences rapidly through U, Th, and Pb isotopes. Signal intensities are measured with a secondary electron multiplier (SEM) that operates in pulse-counting mode for signals less than 50K counts per second (cps), in both pulse-counting and analog mode for signals between 50K and 4M cps, and in analog mode above 4M cps. The calibration between pulse-counting and analog signals is determined line by line for signals between 50K and 4M cps and is applied to 4M cps signals. Four intensities are determined and averaged for each isotope, with dwell times of 0.0052 s for 202, 0.0075 s for 204, 0.0202 s for 206, 0.0284 s for 207, 0.0026 s for 208, 0.0026 s for 232, and 0.0104 s for 238.

With the laser set at an energy density of ∼5 J/cm2, a repetition rate of 8 Hz, and an ablation time of 10 seconds, ablation pits are ∼12 microns in depth. Sensitivity with these settings is approximately ∼5000 cps/ppm. Each analysis consists of 5 seconds on peaks with the laser off (for backgrounds), 10 seconds with the laser firing (for peak intensities), and a 20-second delay to purge the previous sample and save files.

Following analysis, data reduction is performed with an in-house Python decoding routine and an Excel spreadsheet (E2agecalc) that determines a “best age” for each analysis, which is generally the 206/238 age for <900 Ma ages and the 206/207 age for >900 Ma ages and provides preliminary filters that highlight analyses with >20% discordance, >5% reverse discordance, or >10% internal (measurement) uncertain. The ages are shown on Pb*/U concordia diagrams and relative age-probability diagrams using routines in Isoplot (Ludwig, 2008).

U-Pb dates for 2050 zircon grains were determined from the ten sampling localities (Fig. 4A). Table 1 shows the U-Pb geochronological data for the youngest 20 grains from this data set. Seven grains yielded ages less than 1000 Ma. The youngest individual grain is 954 ± 29 Ma. The maximum depositional age (MDA), based on the youngest four grains with overlapping ages, is 959 ± 19 Ma (mean square of weighted deviates [MSWD = 0.29]; Fig. 4B). These results confirm the result of Craddock et al. (2013).

The youngest peak age on the composite frequency plot (all ten sampling localities and 2050 grains) is 1106 Ma. The 1106 Ma age peak is defined by zircons that range in age from 954 to 1200 Ma. This age corresponds with the early phase of MCR volcanism. Many of these younger and older grains that comprise this peak likely come from the overlapping Shawinigan (1200–1140 Ma), Ottawan (1090–1030 Ma), and Rigolet (1010–980 Ma) phases of the Grenville orogeny (McLelland et al., 2013).

Other peaks on the composite frequency plot are 1230 Ma (Elzevirian phase of the Grenville orogeny); ca. 1260–1220 Ma (McLelland et al., 2013); 1356 Ma (mid-continent Granite-Rhyolite Province; Van Schmus et al., 1996); 1455 Ma (Wolf River Batholith; Dewane and Van Schmus, 2007); 1660 Ma (Mazatzal orogeny; Foster et. al, 2006); 1880 Ma (Penokean orogeny; Holm et al., 1998; Schultz and Cannon, 2007); the 2100 Ma Marathon dikes (Halls et al., 2008); and 2660 Ma (Superior Province and areas south and west of the MCR; Bickford et al., 2006). The Jacobsville Sandstone’s sources (Fig. 5) are traditionally considered to be local, mostly from the south from the early Proterozoic and Archean, with some from the north (Kalliokoski, 1982; Hedgman, 1992). These older rocks are described by Sims et al. (1989), Van Wyck and Johnson (1997), and Van Wyck and Norman (2004). In contrast, the JBE zircon age distribution from this study and Craddock et al. (2013) includes a large percentage of ages between 1150 and 1300 Ma, indicating an additional source far from the MCR, most likely the Grenville Province to the northeast. The JBE detrital-zircon age distribution in this study and that of Craddock et al. (2013) have similarities to other post-Grenvillian sandstones within Laurentia, along its margins, and some now in Europe (Santos et al., 2002; Rainbird et al., 2012; Spencer et al., 2015).

Frequency plots for individual sites vary considerably and will be the focus of a future detailed study of the provenance evolution of the JBE. However, the 959 ± 19 Ma maximum depositional age shows that the JBE are Neoproterozoic in age and thus are at least slightly younger than the Grenville orogeny.

The zircon results showing that the JBE are younger than 959 ± 19 Ma demonstrate that their deposition is unrelated to development of the MCR. Because the shortening that inverted the basin deformed the JBE near the reverse faults, the younger maximum depositional age of the JBE also indicates that this compression occurred more than 100 m.y. after MCR extension and volcanism ended. Hence this compression is not why the MCR failed, as has been previously proposed (Gordon and Hempton, 1986; Cannon, 1994; Swenson et al., 2004). Moreover, because the JBE postdate the major deformational stages of the Grenville orogeny, this compression was not part of the Grenville orogeny proper.

This analysis, like early studies, assumes that although earlier compressional events may have affected the MCR, most of the basin inversion resulted from the reverse faulting recorded in the JBE. What caused this compression is unclear. Since the Grenville orogeny, Laurentia has been subject to many collisions. Reconstructions (Li et al., 2013) for times after the Grenville orogeny to the end of the Precambrian do not indicate significant collisional events. However, collisions along Laurentia’s margins may have caused compression in the Lake Superior region but not be recognized because their locations later rifted from Rodinia. Some deformation may be early Paleozoic, associated with compression along eastern North America and the present Arctic (Hadlari et al., 2014).

Much of the motion on the reverse faults may be from the late Paleozoic collisions that formed the Appalachian and Ouachita orogens and gave rise to recognized deformation of the distal foreland (Craddock and van der Pluijm, 1989; Craddock et al., 1993; van der Pluijm et al., 1997). The Midwest United States contains many compressional features of this age, including structures within the Illinois and Michigan Basins and the west arm of the MCR (the Ashland syncline and Nehama ridge) (McBride and Nelson, 1999; Marshak et al., 2000). Faulting and folding of Paleozoic limestones and the underlying Jacobsville Sandstone suggest that some slip on the Keweenaw fault might have occurred at this time (McGovern et al., 1993; Craddock et al., 1997).

This paper focuses on the Lake Superior region, where rocks are best exposed and the best seismic-reflection data exist. We have conducted detailed structural modeling (Stein et al., 2015) and have the new age data presented here. Other parts of the rift system may have evolved somewhat differently, especially after extension ended (Baranoski et al., 2009).

Several lines of complementary—although not definitive—evidence suggest that the JBE may be significantly younger than 959 ± 19 Ma. First, the absence of any zircon grains younger than 959 ± 19 Ma within the JBE allows (but does not require) their depositional age to be much younger (even up to Cambrian). Because both the Late Cambrian Munising Sandstone that overlies the Jacobsville Sandstone (Craddock et al., 2013) and other early Cambo-Ordovician quartz arenites in the midcontinent (Konstantinou et al., 2014) lack zircons younger than ca. 1000 Ma, it appears that the upper midcontinent region did not receive sediment from late Neoproterozoic rifting events in Laurentia.

Second, the very different zircon age distributions between the JBE and the underlying Freda Sandstone (Craddock et al., 2013) may indicate that a large gap in time was needed to change river systems to bring the eastern source of Grenville zircons to the Lake Superior area. It also suggests that time was needed to erode the highlands and rift shoulders surrounding the MCR so that different material could be deposited.

Third, paleomagnetic data suggest a much younger, possibly Cryogenian to Ediacaran, age. We estimated the age using the Bayfield Group’s Chequamegon Sandstone (McCabe and van der Voo, 1983), where the primary magnetic carrier is detrital magnetite. Figure 6 compares the JBE’s paleolatitude to Neoproterozoic paleolatitudes of Laurentia found from sites outside of the MCR area. Given the uncertainties in reconstructions, we simplify the comparison by assuming that all paleomagnetic latitudes are in the same hemisphere. The paleolatitudes match at ca. 780 to ca. 755, ca. 700 to ca. 610, or ca. 570 to ca. 555 Ma.

A final, more speculative possibility is that a younger JBE age could be consistent with the JBE having formed after a Snowball Earth glacial event (Hoffman et al., 1998). The ratio of the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) to present levels has been estimated for both an MCR- and a JBE-related paleosol. The paleosol within MCR volcanics has a value comparable to today’s level (Sheldon, 2013). However, one paleosol beneath the Jacobsville near site #3 (Fig. 3) has a value about four times today’s level (Mitchell and Sheldon, 2010). Immediately following a Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth event, pCO2 is thought to have been very high (Le Hir et al., 2009), perhaps 3–270 times present atmospheric levels (Vieira et al., 2015). Hence the JBE may have been deposited just after the Sturtian (ca. 717–660 Ma) or the Marinoan (ca. 640–632 Ma) Snowball Earth events (Rooney et al., 2015). The JBE paleolatitude data for 700–610 Ma are consistent with this time window (Fig. 6). This timing is also consistent with possible glacial features (striations, gouges, grooves, and polishing) (Murray, 1955) found near the younger paleosol, at the base of the Jacobsville Sandstone on the upper surface of the ca. 1.9 Ga Michigamme slate (Ding et al., 2012). Kalliokoski (1982) favored these features being produced by faulting because he assumed a near-equatorial position for the area during Jacobsville deposition. However, this paper was published before the concept of a Snowball Earth (Kirschvink, 1992; Hoffman et al., 1998). No major glacial periods occurred between ca. 2 Ga and 850 Ma (Young, 2013); so if these features are glacial, they likely result from Snowball Earth events. Hence, they may be the first recognized record of such events in this part of Laurentia.

An important constraint on the evolution of the Midcontinent Rift (MCR) comes from the Jacobsville Sandstone, Bayfield Group, and other equivalent sedimentary rocks (JBE) that overlie the volcanics and sediments deposited in the MCR basin near Lake Superior. It has been proposed that the JBE were deposited shortly prior to or during the time when the MCR failed—ceased extending—due to regional compression occurring as part of the Grenville orogeny. New detrital-zircon ages show that the JBE are Neoproterozoic. The compression recorded in the JBE, which inverted the basin, thus postdates the Grenville orogeny and is unrelated to the failure of the rift.

We thank Gwen Gates, Ellyn Rickels, and Kacey Garber for help with zircon sample preparation and U-Pb analysis at the University of Arizona. We thank W.R. Van Schmus, Stephan Marshak, and one anonymous reviewer for helpful comments. We also appreciate the efforts of the Arizona Laserchron Center staff, namely Mark Pecha and Nicky Giesler. We thank Stuart Gilder for helpful discussions and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for supporting the Steins’ stay at the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen and Ludwig-Maximilians Universität München. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grants EAR-1148088 and EAR-0952345.


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Ms Aviva Dautch

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Personal profile

Aviva Dautch completed a PhD in Creative Writing and Contemporary Poetics, for which she received the university's Reid Scholarship. Her academic thesis was titled 'Harmonious Dischord: Modern Metaphysical Poetry'. It examined the influence the Metaphysical Poets had on T.S. Eliot's modernism and explored the poetry of modern and contemporary religious poets writing in a post-Eliot modernist tradition. The creative writing component of her PhD was a collection of original poems with a modern metaphysical aesthetic, titled 'We Sigh For Houses'.

She is currently Poet in Residence at The Jewish Museum, London. In 2016 she was a Postdoctoral Teaching Fellow for the T.S. Eliot Summer School held at the Institute of English, University of London. She has been shortlisted for The Poetry Society's prize for best poem in Poetry Review by a poet yet to have published a full collection, won the Faber Academy's Faber Fellowship and received a Lily Safra Award for her work in Jewish Women's Studies during a research internship at Brandeis University.

Aviva's poetry has been published in magazines including Agenda, Ambit, European Judaism, The Long Poem Magazine, Modern Poetry in Translation, The North, Poetry Review and The Rialto as well as many anthologies and small press publications. Her reviews and literary essays have been published in magazines and journals including Poetry Review, Agenda, The Long Poem Magazine, An International Bibliography of Jewish Women's Writing, Jewish Renaissance, The Jewish Quarterly and online at and

The British Library: Creative Educator 2007 - present

  • Teaching English Language, Literature and Creative Writing Workshops for Schools, Teachers, FE and HE.
  • Developing and delivering educational programmes in response to temporary exhibitions and the permanent collection.
  • Creating web-based educational material for the online projects: Poetry and Performance; Between Two Worlds: Poetry and Translation; The English Literature Timeline; Discovering Shakespeare.

Royal Holloway, University of London: Visiting Lecturer 2014-2015; Guest Lecturer 2015 - present

  • Lecturing on the MA in Creative Writing (Poetry), teaching the course "Reading for Writers" 2014-15
  • Guest Lecturer in Research Skills 2015 - present

 University of Roehampton: Visiting Lecturer 2004 - 2007; Guest Lecturer 2007 - present

  • Lecturing on BA courses including "Representations of Jewishness and the Holocaust in Art, Literature, Film and Drama", "The Genesis of Gender", "Religion and Human Rights" and "Introduction to Biblical Hebrew"
  • Delivering lectures; running seminars and workshops; giving tutorials; supervising special study projects; marking and second-marking exams and essays.

Other teaching (guest lecturing and occasional workshops) has included

  • CLIE, University College London
  • Limmud, Warwick University
  • Limmud, Nottingham University
  • Jewish Studies, University of Cambridge
  • St Mary's University College
  • British Museum
  • Three Faiths Forum
  • London School of Jewish Studies
  • London Jewish Cultural Centre
  • Institute for Contemporary History and Weiner Library
  • Mundy Cruises: Prague, Berlin and Dresden

Poet in Residence, The Jewish Museum, London

Creative Educator, The British Library

Editorial Board, Modern Poetry in Translation

Member, National Association of Writers in Education

Member, Exiled Writers

View all (1) »

ID: 3965232


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1. Hiking in Hebrews: An open invite!

A few years ago, I embarked on a life-changing journey of intensive scripture memory, memorizing several books of the New Testament, word for word, and letting God transform my heart and my mind in the process. You can read all about it in my four-part series, “Mind Full, Mind Change” on this blog— have a peek if you haven’t already! Ever since, I’ve been tooting the horn of “Memorize Books!”, and I know a few of you have taken up the challenge, or at least expressed interest in doing so.

I’m not here to blow that horn again, at least not too much, though I’m still a fervent believer in long memory work and wish everyone would give it a try.  I promise it will change you!

The most frequent question I get, besides “How did you do it?”, is this: “Do the Scriptures stick after you move on to other verses and books, or do they slip away?” The answer is, mostly they stick, but not entirely. Some passages are indelibly carved in my brain, and when those ones start to fade, I’ll know the dementia I fear is upon me.

More specifically, the early chapters tend to stick, word perfect,  because I end up reviewing them more than the later chapters. (I work on one chapter at a time, but as I add new chapters, I keep reviewing the previous ones.) The longest book I’ve memorized so far, the Book of Hebrews, is a case in point:

Chapters 1 to 6: no problem. Chapters 7 to 9, filled with discourse about high priests, sacrifices, covenants, and temple décor: needs periodic review, which I’m doing these days. Chapters 11 to 13: awesome chapters, but they too need some mental shoring up.
Fortunately, I enjoy revisiting and recommitting these sections to memory as much as I enjoyed memorizing them the first time around, if not more. (Like wine, cheese, and good friends, they just get better with age!) I only wish there were more hours to devote to reviewing AND adding more content. I’m itching to memorize Romans next.
Which brings me to my point. As I hiked my favorite mountain today– a lovely nearby dome with a tower atop— pondering Hebrews yet again, I thought about how much  meditating I’ve done as I hike. Not that every thought is profound or even original…but they’re well-brewed, and steeped in long reflection.

And then I thought, Why not share my insights with you? Why not blog my way through Hebrews, putting my thoughts to paper (or screen) ? Why not toss my mental breadcrumbs on the public path, where curious birds can sample and peck, and perhaps share back with me…?

Why not, indeed.

Let me tell you what this series will and won’t be. It won’t be an in-depth exegesis, digging through the Greek lexicon and connecting every other verse related to the topic. (That would take forever, and others have already written those commentaries and tomes.) In other words, it won’t be hardcore Bible study—at least not much.
But it won’t be a breezy stroll through the park, either. I’ve pondered these passages on very vigorous mountain hikes, and my thoughts, while joyful and expansive, aren’t usually lightweight. After all, as encouraging and faith-building as Hebrews is, it’s also dense with instruction— and written primarily as a warning.

The audience addressed in Hebrews were in danger of drifting away, getting discouraged, and wanting to return to their old religion—to the writer’s dismay. It’s  packed with warnings and examples, urging believers to re-examine their faith, in light of the Old Testament, and hold even tighter to Jesus.

So it can’t be light. But it can be nourishing, and deeply satisfying.

Also, I may get a little preachy at times, but it won’t be anything I haven’t preached to myself first.

Anyway, here’s my invite. My blog posts tend to be longer than average posts (around 1000 words), and perhaps my word count costs me some readers. I won’t apologize for that! Make yourself a coffee and read when you have some minutes to relax.  I won’t waste your time with mindless fluff, I promise!

So…why not join me as I climb my favorite mountain?

Hopefully, our hikes will deliver something your spirit needs, as they always do for me.

I’m excited to start. Are your shoes tied and ready? Did you remember the sunscreen?

(Just a preliminary disclaimer: I won’t be consulting any commentaries or other writings about Hebrews during this hike; all thoughts are my own, based on things I’ve learned over the years. So if you take issue with my observations, take it up with me…kindly 🙂

26 replies »

    • So delighted you’re joining! There are plenty more to come… I’m only up the start of chapter two so far. Tell your friends!

    • You are most welcome! There are 14 articles so far, and I plan to keep posting every five days or so. And please comment!

  1. I’m a late starter, but coming along for the hike! (Will also go back to your 4-part “Mind Full” series.) LOVE your writing. And love you!

    • It’s never too late! Been thinking about you and your exciting move a lot lately… keep us posted on your adventures! Are you following my blog? If so, you’ll get a notice whenever I post a new article. And please pass it on! Love you too.

  2. Looking forward to following/hiking! Thanks Marilyn. 😀 (Your ability to memorize scripture is inspiring.)

    • Thanks, Angela. It’s truly an acquired ability, like developing an underused (or even ignored) muscle and continuing to work it. I think we’re all capable of greater feats than we realize—with God’s help, of course!

  3. So lovely to hear from you and thank you for inviting me. This both inspires and challenges me! Not great with memorising or technology but very keen to hear your thoughts and journey,

    • I appreciate having your sweet company on our growing group hike! You were a great friend to me when I truly needed one.

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Return of the Box Monster!

Help! The box monster has returned! Whatever shall I do?

I think when Aaron ordered a dryer vent sweeper, Mau was more excited about it than anyone else in the house because it came in a long, thin box. While Garrus and Charlie occasionally sniffed it or peeked inside if a toy bounced inside, Mau immediately claimed the box as his.

Most amusingly, Mau typically saunters into the box after eating his breakfast and has a sit. I guess it is his Sitting/Pondering Box. Evidently this Box Monster contemplates the wonders of the universe.

The box is extra special because it has crinkly paper in it. It also makes a fun gully in which to bat around toys and a spot from which to pounce on his housemates (apparently). I just think he looks extra cute in his box but I’m likely biased…

Do your cats like boxes? Does the shape and size matter? Does the inclusion of crinkly paper make the box special to your cat? Share in the comments!

Box Monsters

Aaahhh! My house has been invaded by box monsters! At least they’re fluffy and cute.

This one could be called a Box Maunster!

Garrus gave me so much side-eye when I started taking photos.

Charlie, on the other hand, was more interested in playing around the box, rather than in it. The cats are quite intrigued when I’ve tossed toys into the box – a scavenger hunt is very exciting!

I managed to catch one of the box monsters in action!

Being scampery box monsters can be quite tiring, so obviously a snuggle is warranted.

Sweet Mau

Mau is a pretty cute cat, though I might be biased. It’s now been about 10 days since his dental surgery and being toothless hasn’t negatively affected his quality of life.

“This bed is so cozy!”

Aaron and I have noticed that he has become more playful and bats both crinkle balls and plastic springs around the house. Mau’s favorite toy might be the laser pointer, however, as he chases after the red dot with more gusto and stamina than either Garrus or Charlie. It’s highly amusing and delightful to watch all three cats skitter about the house trying to pounce on the elusive red dot. If I can, I’ll record a video of a play session and share it here on Purry Home Companion!

“Mama, I found a box! It’s such a nice box.”

Look at these handsome boys! I couldn’t resist snapping a photo when I saw them lined up like this.

Garrus and Mau demonstrate their nightly ottoman sprawl. Mau recently adopted this habit of flaunting his fluffy belly like this. It’s not a trap. I repeat: it’s not a trap!


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Useful tips

How do I make assignments visible to students in canvas?

How do I make assignments visible to students in canvas?

By moving the “Assignments” bar from bottom to the top area this will make assignments visible to students. You can either do this by dragging and dropping the bar, or clicking on the wheel and selecting “Enable”.

How do I copy an assignment from one course to another in canvas?

Import ProcessSelect the course you would like to import the content into (i.e. a new course site)Click Settings on the Course Navigation menu.Click Import Course Content on the right side of the page.In the Content Type menu, select Copy a Canvas Course.

How do you use assignments in canvas?

Create the AssignmentClick on “Assignments” from the course navigation.Click “+Assignment” at the top right corner.Name your assignment.Enter a description or assignment details in the rich content editor.If you would like to attach files, you can select the file from the content selector panel.

What is the difference between a page and an assignment in canvas?

While you can make a Canvas Page have a student to-do date, its primary function isn’t a task (ie assignment). It is to share information. The primary function of an Assignment item is for the learner to do something and potentially turn it in for review/grade/feedback.

Where can students access an instructor’s canvas profile?

To get the link go to your course, click on people, then click on your own name (or the Instructors name). The URL at the top of the page is unique to each person (so in this case it would be the unique URL for the Instructor) in the course and contains the desired profile information.

What is the purpose of pages in canvas?

Pages are content areas where you can add and consolidate text and materials, similar to “Items” in Blackboard. Think of a Word document or Google Doc with the ability to add text, videos, images, hyperlinks, LTI Apps, and links to all other content in your course. You can even link to other pages.

Can you organize pages in canvas?

Pages can help make your course more dynamic and engaging to students. You can set permissions for editing a page contents: instructors, students, anyone. This is useful if you want to create a class Wiki.

What is a page shell in canvas?

A page shell is an content page, basically serving as a placeholder for content at a later point. These lesson from the Canvas Instructor Guide explains how to create a page.

Is canvas free for teachers?

To introduce Canvas as a learning platform, Canvas offers a Free-for-Teacher account that is always free.

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Rotary Vane Pump

Rotary Vane Pump in Georgia

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Thanksgiving Centerpieces

Give thanks for the gorgeous colors of the Fall with vibrant Thanksgiving floral centerpieces from FTD. Thanksgiving is November 28, so choose the perfect centerpiece to accent your dinner table décor.

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Thanksgiving Centerpieces for Any Décor

FTD has an exquisite selection of Fall Harvest and Thanksgiving flower centerpieces that will add to the warmth of your Thanksgiving gathering. Explore FTD’s array of Thanksgiving centerpieces and table decorations online to find the perfect floral expression to add to your dinner table. Incorporate decorative baskets or vases filled with bright sun flowers, orange roses, lush lilies, and playful daisies to add a festive flair to your Thanksgiving celebration. Accenting your dinner table décor with a fresh floral centerpiece from FTD is an elegant way to elevate the look and ambiance of your Thanksgiving feast by bringing the beauty of the outdoor Fall colors into your home.

Order Thanksgiving Flowers That Will Make a Statement

Beautiful Thanksgiving flowers and table decorations also make a perfect gift to deliver to family and friends you may not get to see much this holiday season. Show them how thankful you are to have them in your life by sending them their own dazzling Thanksgiving flowers from FTD! They’ll be reminded how much you care every time they look at the exquisite floral centerpiece you had delivered to their home to brighten up their Thanksgiving holiday.

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FTD makes it easy to plan for your holidays with online ordering and delivery of your Thanksgiving floral centerpieces. Once you have chosen your centerpiece from our online catalogue, select your preferred delivery date and location to ensure delivery in time for your Thanksgiving celebration. Cheerful Thanksgiving dinner table décor is as essential to the holiday ambiance as the pumpkin pie and cranberry sauce, so don’t delay in ordering your centerpiece today! Our team of florists will carefully package and deliver your Thanksgiving centerpiece to ensure a lush, fresh arrangement that is ready to be the showpiece of your dinner table décor. FTD brings the beauty and elegance of floral décor to make all of your holiday celebrations feel more special.


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It is announced that about 80 percent of those who play casino games for the first time head for the slot machines. Being first timers, might feel, at some point, intimidated with interacting with the dealers and other players at the table games, and also the crowds. A slot machine game is for only 1 player and is exhilarating for those avoiding affairs. Another reason that slot machines are popular among first timers is mainly because it is really simple to play.

This article summarizes 10 popular online slot online machines, including As the Reels Turn, Cleopatra’s Gold, Enchanted Garden, Ladies Nite, Pay Dirt!, Princess Jewels, Red White and Win, The Reel Deal, Tomb Raider, and Thunderstruck.

That is correct, learn about read that right. Now you can play online slots as well as other casino games anytime unwanted weight right using your pc. No longer obtaining to hold back until your vacation rolls around, or selection some lame excuse inform the boss so since you can get full week off to go over of your number one brick and mortar casino site.

When you go in the casino, attempt to find the superslot slot online casino machine game that offers higher bonuses and jackpots and more spins. Another good point is the payout. Check the pay table. If possible, find the one which includes 95 percent and above payout. Arrive at more odds of winning. Players may also opt for newly opened casinos or slot machines as these offer more bonuses and bigger jackpots and extra prizes. A couple of casinos which give cards to customers. Prepaid cards are inserted to every machine whereas the player plays and credit card tracks down how much the player plays and lists points which are useful to trade for complimentary portions. When you play, be sensitive as well as spirit. Surely has what we call gut feeling. Glance at the game and follow what it says.

Online slot games absolutely are a fun selection for those who don’t put on a lot ofcash. It may be a relatively secure choice. It’s an effortless game that doesn’t require any technique or guesswork. You will not find any “slot faces” like there are poker individuals.

There are three little screens involving slot machines which are named payout, credits, and bet. Payout refers on the player’s winnings; it is zero when there are not winnings. Credits refer to how many coins the golfer has nonetheless. The bet screen displays how much the player decided to bet.

The principle in playing slots is temperance. Be contented an individual win. Don’t continue playing and betting and utilizing the money you could have won. Surely you’ll lose a use all of what to be able to won. The RNG makes sense not to enable you to win of course. Remember that it changes the combinations a thousand times every and every second. Also, if you do not need have any coin to use, stop.

Next, check the pay table or the list of potential combinations along with the number of points or coins every player compensates. Try to find out just how many coins in order to be played so as to win the jackpot. Fiddling with only several coins will of course win you nothing. In playing superslot slot online casino, select gear that shows the best payout for every coin passed.

Why do people as the free Cleopatra slots field? It probably has a lot to do with the beautiful graphics, the music activity and recognition of the Egyptian history that’s integrated into it. After all, who doesn’t know who Cleopatra turned out? In her day, Cleopatra was one of the most powerful woman in the field of.

If usually however your intention perform it big, then is advisable opt for well the place where you plan to play big buy-ins. Given the undeniable fact that you possibly be playing contingent on pure luck (or what combination the slot machine will come up with), can best to play with an experienced site an individual can trust and will ensure you including your money a large deal of protection. Recognize this, everyone best to first study the reviews about important gaming websites and learn which ones are probably the most credible many used the actual experts in this particular field of gaming.


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Oceanic Ancestors

Lapita : in the middle of the Pacific, this unusual and barely known name is that of a civilisation dating back over 3000 years. In less than four centuries, the culture, its language and traditions spread over 4,500 km across the Southwest Pacific, as far as Western Polynesia. Characterised by two key features – the introduction of Austronesian languages into the region by explorers and a very unique tradition of pottery with dotted designs – the Lapita culture has fascinated many generations of researchers. About 250 sites identified so far have revealed the production of pottery with decorations featuring geometric and anthropomorphic motifs. This coherent group is a real archaeological marker of the journey of the Austronesian-speaking peoples in the Southwest Pacific. This book leads us to discover this Pacific civilisation, which by the extraordinary quality of its creations, still manages to captivate, and has left its mark on traditional graphic design in the Pacific.
A collective work compiled by Christophe Sand, director of the Institute of Archaeology of New Caledonia and the Pacific and Stuart Bedford, researcher at the Department of Archaeology and Natural History at the Australian National University.

350 pages • 20 x 30 cm • 39 €
Co-published by musée du quai Branly - Jacques Chirac / Somogy 2010
ISBN: 9782757203675


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Swim Cover-Up

Thrift shop 100% cotton scarf

Take one $3 designer scarf, stitch up the sides, leaving 8 inches for the arm holes and then cut a triangular head opening. Hem the raw edges. Ta-Da! A swim suit cover-up for going to the pool.

cover up
It’s about knee length.

7 thoughts on “Swim Cover-Up

    1. The community pool is 3 blocks away and now I am a senior I can swim for free! I bought my son a summer pass for $50. It’s our favorite way to beat the heat.

  1. God I was preparing mentally to buy a cover-up to go to the lake with friends, and I was not happy with what was in store, a lot of euros for so little fabric. Well now I just have to hunt down a summer scarf a my parents’ and do a little bit of sewing.

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