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Norges Bank

Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Address by Governor Svein Gjedrem, Stavanger, 21 March 2003

The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank's press conference following the Executive Board's monetary policy meeting on 5 March and on previous speeches. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation.

The operational target of monetary policy as defined by the Government is inflation of close to 2½ per cent over time.

Norges Bank sets the interest rate so that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target of 2½ per cent. Interest rates were reduced this winter in response to the change in the inflation outlook. The inflation projection was revised downwards as a result of weaker cyclical developments in the global economy, a sharp decline in international interest rates and a strong krone. In addition, the Norwegian business sector is feeling the effects of the high Norwegian cost level. Moreover, growth in domestic demand has slowed. Household purchasing power has been reduced as a result of higher electricity prices. The weak prospects at home and abroad are in turn having an impact on the Norwegian labour market and the outlook for wage growth and inflation in the years ahead.

The inflation target provides economic agents with an anchor for their decisions concerning saving, investment, budgets and wages. Households, businesses, public entities, employees and employers can base decisions on the assumption that inflation in Norway will be 2½ per cent over time.

High demand for goods and services and labour shortages normally point to higher inflation in the future. When interest rates are increased, demand falls and inflation is kept at bay. When demand is low and unemployment rises, inflation will tend to slow. Interest rates will then be reduced. The inflation target is a vehicle for, not an obstacle to, monetary policy's contribution to stabilising output and employment. This intention is also expressed in the Regulation on Monetary Policy.

The krone exchange rate fluctuates. This is not surprising because other countries' currencies also fluctuate. The Swedish krona, sterling and the New Zealand dollar have fluctuated considerably in periods.

The krone exchange rate is the price of our currency measured in terms of a foreign currency. Developments in other countries are just as important for the krone as developments in the Norwegian economy. Capital flows freely and flows can change rapidly. This can spill over to exchange rates and interest rates as well as output and employment.

The inflation target of 2½ per cent is broadly in line with the inflation targets of our trading partners. It is also an anchor for developments in the krone exchange rate. The krone has been strong. As a result, prices for imported goods have fallen. This has led to low and stable inflation in spite of sharp wage growth.

Currency swings are driven by cross-border capital movements. Capital flows were heavily influenced by investor focus on stock market returns until the downturn began. In the US, equity prices almost trebled between 1995 and 2000. Stock markets in other countries followed suit. The decline was amplified after the downturn in the global economy deepened as a result of terror and fears of war. Investors sought to avert the risk in the stock market. Capital inflows into the stock market resulted in a strong dollar. However, expectations concerning corporate earnings were higher than later proved to be warranted. When expectations were lowered, equity prices fell. Demand for bonds increased, resulting in low long-term interest rates.

In response to heightened uncertainty and fears of war, traditional safe havens for capital, such as the Swiss franc and gold, have been attractive to investors. The Swiss franc appreciated after the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and towards the end of last year. Gold prices moved up sharply after UN Security Council Resolution 1441 was adopted in November last year. Gold prices have edged down again since the beginning of February 2003, while the exchange rate for the Swiss franc has remained high.

Oil prices have risen again following a sharp fall after September 11 2001. The outlook for global oil supplies is uncertain due to fear of war in Iraq. Strategic oil reserves have risen, while private reserves are low. This has exerted upward pressure on oil prices. The extraordinary conditions in the oil market are not likely to persist. Following the announcement that the US and its allies would engage in war, oil prices fell sharply. The war premium on oil prices has been reduced. Market participants remember that oil prices fell by USD 10 the day after the liberation of Kuwait began in January 1991. At that time, strategic oil reserves in industrialised countries were used to maintain a sufficient supply of oil in the market. In addition, OPEC produces substantial quantities of oil and demand declines during spring.

The fall in oil prices reflects expectations of a short, limited war. The oil market is unstable. Oil prices are almost as volatile as they were in the wake of 11 September 2001. We expect oil prices to fluctuate considerably in the period ahead.

Major economies such as the US, Germany and France are struggling with stagnation and fears of recession. Substantial tax relief, high expenses on security and military operations and low interest rates are holding up activity in the US. The Japanese economy has been in a deflationary recession for a long period.

In recent years, the krone exchange rate has shadowed the difference between Norwegian and foreign short-term rates. This is why the krone has been strong. In addition, high oil prices appear to have had an influence.

The effect of the interest rate differential on the krone was intensified by conditions in capital markets. Investors have been favouring carry trades. Risk premiums in major currency markets have been low, which seems to indicate that investors have until recently been less prone to speculate in exchange rate fluctuations.

As equity prices fell, investors started seeking alternative vehicles. This made the krone market more attractive because of high interest rates in Norway. The krone appreciated at the same time as foreign stock markets and domestic equity prices fell. Bonds and other interest-bearing securities have been of particular interest.

The interest rate differential between Norway and trading partners has contributed to a strengthening of the krone. Norges Bank has reduced the sight deposit rate from 7 to 5.5 per cent since 11 December. The interest rate differential has narrowed. The krone has depreciated since the last half of January. Expectations of lower interest rates have probably been a contributing factor. Monetary policy has been relaxed.

Following the depreciation in the krone exchange rate since the last half of January, competitiveness in business and industry in mid-March was 10 per cent below the average for the last 30 years. Following substantial deviations, competitiveness has historically always returned to the average fairly rapidly. Market participants weigh the interest rate differential between Norway and other countries against the likelihood of a depreciation of the krone in the future. Cyclical divergence may cause the krone to overshoot its future level in the short term.

On 14 March, the krone was about 5 per cent stronger than in 1996. The rest of the deterioration in competitiveness is primarily due to the sharp rise in labour costs.

Wages in Norwegian manufacturing grew by close to 15 per cent more than wages among trading partners between January 1996 and end- January 2003. In the years around the millennium, the depreciation of the krone veiled the underlying deterioration in competitiveness. In May 2000, the krone exchange rate reached its lowest level in six years. The krone then appreciated up to the beginning of 2003, and the effect of high wage growth has gradually come into evidence in company accounts.

In the ten years following the banking and currency crisis in 1992, the economy featured a long period of balanced growth. However, towards the end of the upturn the economy was facing labour shortages, higher wage growth and a sharp increase in household consumption and debt. Interest rates had to be kept at a high level in Norway.

The turnaround abroad took place two years ago, but the Norwegian economy continued to show a high level of activity. This led to a widening of the interest rate differential against other countries. The main explanation for the wide interest rate differential is not that interest rates are high in Norway, but that interest rates are at a historic low abroad. Interest rates in the US have not been at such a low level since the 1960s.

The real interest rate, i.e. the interest rate adjusted for inflation, rose in 2000 and was thereafter somewhat higher than the average for the past 30 years. With the reductions in the key rate this winter, the real interest rate is no longer particularly high. The tight monetary stance is reflected in the strong krone.

A further jump in wages in 2002 amplified the imbalances in the economy and fuelled the rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway. This is why monetary policy has been tight.

Over the autumn and winter, it has become clear that global growth is weaker than we and other observers had expected. Several central banks have responded by reducing interest rates further. Interest rates in the US, Europe and Japan are unusually low. Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Switzerland and Iceland have also reduced interest rates. Canada, on the other hand, has recently increased its key rate.

Weak developments are reflected in expectations of low interest rates in the period ahead. Interest rate expectations in the US have been lowered considerably since summer 2002. In the summer, market participants expected interest rates to rise fairly rapidly. In autumn 2002, expectations had been lowered to a gradual increase in interest rates. The key rate is now expected to remain below 1½ per cent throughout 2003.

The same picture applies to Europe.

Global growth is still expected to pick up gradually towards a more normal level, but the upturn may come at a later stage than previously assumed. However, we cannot rule out that the world economy is headed for a fairly long period of stagnation. Low interest rates in the US and Europe are a reflection of this risk.

Weak external developments have had negative spillover effects on the Norwegian economy through the appreciation of the krone, the fall in equity prices and lower demand for Norwegian exports. A larger share of Norwegian production is exposed to competition.

Unemployment has increased, primarily in service industries. The prospects for manufacturing industry are deteriorating. High wage growth is forcing many businesses and municipalities to cut costs and reduce their workforces.

In 2002, inflation was close to target at 2.3 per cent, but has been somewhat lower in recent months. The strong krone is the primary factor behind low inflation. The rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services is marked by the considerably higher wage growth in Norway relative to trading partners. Wage growth moved up further last year, even in industries where profitability had been sharply eroded.

A precondition for countering a possible downturn by means of monetary policy easing is slower growth in labour costs. Monetary policy cannot prevent an increase in unemployment that is caused by a significantly higher rate of growth in labour costs in Norway compared with other countries. Nor can this be achieved by means of fiscal policy.

Growth in real wages is far higher than the underlying growth in productivity in the Norwegian economy. If higher costs cannot be passed on to customers, earnings decline and the wage share increases. Many businesses will have to adjust their workforces to maintain profitability. This leads to a fall in employment and increased productivity. For some companies, this may be a prerequisite for maintaining operations in Norway. The alternative is to close down or relocate production to another country.

While the wage share has risen sharply in manufacturing, it has remained fairly stable in other industries. Import firms have increased their margins, suggesting that the appreciation of the krone has not fully benefited customers. We also know that employment in some service industries has fallen. Many companies in the service sector have adjusted their workforces to maintain profitability. To some extent, higher costs can also be passed on to customers through higher prices in this sector.

In the public sector, where employment growth has been strong the last few years, budgets will only allow a moderate increase in employment in 2003. Overall, employment is projected to fall by ½ per cent in 2003 and remain unchanged in 2004.

Employment followed a similar course in the early 1980s. At that time, unemployment rose markedly as a result of continued strong growth in the labour force.

Manufacturing employment is declining. Up to the end of 2002, manufacturing unemployment remained stable. However, it has risen considerably in the past few months. More lay-offs and lower expectations regarding manufacturing employment point to increased unemployment in the manufacturing sector ahead. In addition, statistics show a 40 per cent reduction in the number of advertised job vacancies in manufacturing in the last year.

Demand for labour, measured by advertised job vacancies, is also low in other industries. This indicates that unemployment may increase further in the period ahead. We must expect unemployment to continue to edge up, particularly in manufacturing.

Registered unemployment is projected to increase from 3¼ per cent in 2002 to 4 per cent in 2003 and up to 4¼ per cent in 2004. Unemployment is projected to stabilise at this level in 2005.

There are wide regional variations in unemployment. At the end of February, 4 per cent of the labour force in Rogaland county was registered as unemployed. This is close to the national average.

As in the rest of the country, the public sector and parts of the private service sector are important to employment in Rogaland, although the share of employment in these industries is lower than the national average. The business sector and growth are stable in this region.

Manufacturing and oil and gas extraction account for a larger share of employment in Rogaland county than in the rest of Norway. There is a relatively large proportion of internationally exposed manufacturing in the county. Manufacturing employment in Rogaland is mainly concentrated in the engineering and shipbuilding industries and in oil platform construction. The food and beverages industry is also a large employer. A large share of manufacturing in Rogaland is export-oriented. Rogaland is also an important agricultural county.

Setting the interest rate at an appropriate level requires knowledge of the economic situation. Economic statistics are useful, but they are published late and the figures are frequently revised.

In autumn 2002, Norges Bank established a regional network as a tool to gauge the level of activity in the Norwegian economy.

The network consists of enterprises, organisations and municipalities throughout Norway. In the two rounds of visits conducted in connection with Inflation Report 1/03, 440 contacts were interviewed. We will have six rounds of talks each year with business and community leaders concerning financial developments in their enterprises and industries, with about 200 visits in each round. The selection of contacts reflects the production side of the economy, both industry-wise and geographically.

In the course of 2003, the number of contacts associated with the network will rise to about 1000 persons, who will be contacted once or twice a year. Rogalandsforskning is responsible for the network and arranges contact meetings in Rogaland and Hordaland counties.

Our assessments will continue to be based primarily on official statistics, but because of the time lag involved and the revisions made of these statistics, supplementary information from other sources is useful.

The regional network provides us with updated information about the state of the Norwegian economy. Regular talks with local business and community leaders provide information that can supplement available official statistics. Moreover, we obtain more detailed knowledge about areas that are not covered by official statistical sources. We also gain insight into issues that are of particular interest to enterprises.

The information obtained in the February round for Region South-West concerning developments in the petroleum sector is of particular concern. Internationally exposed enterprises are struggling to maintain profitability. The krone exchange rate and wage growth have squeezed profit margins in manufacturing. Manufacturing output for the domestic market is no longer expanding and export industries are struggling with both output and prices. Supplies to the petroleum industry are falling as a result of a reduction in exploration activity, few new projects and a loss of projects to foreign suppliers. The construction industry is exhibiting a moderate decline due to weaker demand for commercial buildings. The new football stadium at Jåttå will counter this to some extent. Retail trade reports disappointing Christmas and January sales.

A less favourable period for export-oriented manufacturing, a decline in parts of the petroleum sector and lower margins in business and industry may result in higher unemployment in the region. The supply of qualified labour is also reported to have improved.

In spite of the interest rate cuts and a stimulatory central government budget, overall economic policy has been tight because the krone has been strong. Lower interest rates and a lower krone exchange rate have contributed to an easing of monetary policy. Competitiveness has nevertheless deteriorated due to high wage growth over a number of years. This will curb growth in the period ahead.

Statistics Norway's business tendency survey for manufacturing industry shows that manufacturing leaders' expectations concerning future developments are negative. Companies report a decline in production, employment and orders for both the export and domestic market. Many companies have moved abroad or are planning to move all or parts of their production out of Norway.

In recent years, the shipbuilding and engineering industries have sustained the activity level in Norwegian manufacturing. Shipyards experienced a sharp increase in new orders from end-2000 prior to the elimination of support to the shipbuilding industry in Norway and many European countries. The level of new orders has since then been very low, and the order backlog is nearly exhausted. A sharp increase in petroleum investment could provide positive growth impulses to the offshore-related industry.

The growth impetus to the mainland economy from petroleum investment will, however, be weaker than previously. Construction and installations with a high import content will account for a large share of the increase in investment from 2002 to 2003. Due to the high cost level in Norway, a growing number of contracts are also being awarded to foreign companies. At the same time, Norwegian shipyards are increasingly using foreign subcontractors in low-cost countries. This is having an adverse impact on the Norwegian engineering industry.

Strong growth in private consumption has contributed to sustaining activity in the Norwegian economy. Sharp wage growth, combined with reductions in direct and indirect taxes, resulted in close to 5 per cent growth in household real disposable income last year. Real income growth will be considerably lower in 2003 and probably lower than projected earlier. Imbalances in the Norwegian electricity market have resulted in a sharp increase in electricity prices. This implies a considerable reduction in household real income growth. Our projections indicate that, in isolation, electricity prices will contribute to a reduction in income growth of 1½ percentage points this year. The interest rate reductions this winter will have the opposite effect. In addition, developments in employment are expected to be weaker and wage growth somewhat lower this year than previously projected.

During the last six months, households have become less optimistic about the economic outlook. Increased uncertainty in the labour market and lower confidence point to heightened caution and increased saving in the household sector. Lower interest rates have the opposite effect. Household saving behaviour may also be affected by high electricity prices. On the whole, a moderate, temporary decline in household saving is expected in 2003. Next year, a normalisation of electricity prices will contribute to increasing real income growth compared with 2003. At the same time, we have assumed that a share of the increased use of petroleum revenues over the central government budget will entail increased transfers or tax cuts for households. These factors, combined with lower interest rates, may fuel relatively brisk growth in private consumption in the next few years.

In the last few months, house prices have risen at a slower pace than in previous years. Activity in the housing market has declined and it takes longer to sell a dwelling.

Household borrowing is still high. Weaker developments in house prices and reduced household optimism may restrain credit growth in the future.

In the last Inflation Report, we expected mainland GDP growth to be lower than trend growth, at 1¼ per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2004. In 2005, growth is projected at 2¼ per cent.

Norges Banks Executive Board assessed the interest rate at its monetary policy meeting on 5 March. It was decided to reduce the interest rate from 6 per cent to 5.5 per cent. Norges Bank judges that, with an interest rate of 5.5 per cent, the probability that inflation two years ahead will be lower than 2½ per cent is greater than the probability that it will be higher.

The underlying rise in prices in the coming year will be marked by the appreciation of the krone over the last two years. Despite high wage growth, the year-on-year rise in consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) will most likely range between 1½ and 2 per cent until the summer. Developments after this will partly depend on the international economic situation, the effects of the high level of costs for business and industry, the krone exchange rate and how changes in the exchange rate feed through to consumer prices in Norway.

In the Inflation Report, we presented two alternative paths for the Norwegian economy. In the baseline scenario, where the interest rate is held constant at 5½ per cent and the krone exchange rate at the average for the past month, inflation is projected to remain below 2½ per cent over the forecast horizon. In an alternative scenario, where monetary policy is eased in line with market expectations, inflation may be somewhat above target at the two-year horizon.

There is uncertainty surrounding developments in many of the factors that will influence inflation ahead, among others the exchange rate. This implies a gradual approach to the conduct of monetary policy.

Thank you for your attention.

Published 21 March 2003 14:00


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Site Lines: Recent Work by University of Utah Art Faculty

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Presented by Utah Museum of Fine Arts at Utah Museum of Fine Arts, Salt Lake City UT

Sep 28 2018
Jan 06 2019
Site Lines: Recent Work by University of Utah Art Faculty

In architecture, sightlines are areas that protect a particular line of sight for a space that is seen as precious or important. Likewise, faculty play a critical role in facilitating unobstructed, often wider views of social and cultural issues for students.

Lines, one of the most basic elements in art and a foundation of mark making, feature prominently, both conceptually and through the skillful employment of materials, in this fall’s exhibition of new work by U of U art faculty. These

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February 10, 2020

Manny Fernandez Is California-Bound

Manny, who has turned out stellar prose since he arrived in Houston in 2011, is our next Los Angeles bureau chief. Read more in this note from Marc Lacey and Julie Bloom.

Mention the name of national correspondent Manny Fernandez and only one state comes to mind: Texas.

Manny first arrived in Houston in the summer of 2011 and has been turning out stellar prose from across that state ever since. Texas tearjerkers. Texas think pieces. Texas exclusives.

After a fabulous run, we’re thrilled to announce Manny’s next act will be a few states over to the west. Starting this summer, he will become the Los Angeles bureau chief.

Manny has many fans. Peter Applebome, who has spent some time in Texas himself, speaks of Manny’s ability to write with “unblinking clarity,” as he did in a chilling 2017 piece on life and death at the border. Julie Bloom raves about his adeptness at capturing a sense of place “without it sounding fake or forced,” as he did here on Amarillo. His poignant account of a soccer coach who survived the Walmart shooting brought Jia Lynn Yang to tears. Manny’s take on “What Makes Texas Texas” was so dead-on, Richard Fausset noted, that even The Houston Chronicle had to give it props. And it contained this surreal passage:

“About a month after I moved here, a 41-year-old man named Mark Stroman told Texas that he loved Texas, just before Texas killed him. As he lay on the gurney in the state’s execution chamber, Mr. Stroman, a convicted murderer who had an eighth-grade education and was a native Texan, uttered as part of his last statement, ‘Texas loud, Texas proud.’”

Manny, it turns out, is California proud. He was born in Fresno, in the virtual heart of the state. He had a summer internship at The Fresno Bee when he was in high school. His first journalism job was at the nearby Madera Tribune. He was a summer intern at The Wall Street Journal’s Los Angeles bureau when he was in college at Fresno State. He had one byline that summer, a profile of Crime Scene Steam & Clean. After graduating from college, he became a reporter for The San Francisco Chronicle.

Please join us in congratulating Manny on this exciting new role. We can’t wait to read Manny’s dispatches from across California as he rediscovers his home state. We know readers will be thrilled, too.

Marc and Julie


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• OATS Admin.

Helping Riders Navigate Change

Renae Houston, Northeast Operations Coordinator, takes a call to schedule a trip for a rider.

Change is hard. In fact, it’s one of the hardest things to go through in life. Humans are creatures of habit and routine so adjusting to changes can be difficult. For our company to grow and succeed, we had to seek improvements to our service delivery model. This is exactly what our new scheduling software, Ecolane, has offered. We understand this change has been harder on some than others, but we are all making the adjustments together!

Looking at the bigger picture, in just one day in March, we performed 4,010 trips with a 90% or higher performance rate. For us, it speaks volumes to our efficient service. The words echoed in our mission and our culture “safe, caring & reliable” remain the top priorities to our riders, staff and contracting agencies. These numbers only include 53 of the 87 counties using the software; we still have 34 more counties remaining to go live on the new system. As we head into spring, 75% of our service area is running on the new scheduling and dispatching software. The remaining 25% will be on the new system before mid-May.

Speaking of performance rates, on that same day, we had 285 no-shows. No-shows are when a driver goes to pick up a rider, but the rider didn’t call to tell us they weren’t riding, so it was an unnecessary trip. This can be avoided by calling our office ahead of time to cancel the trip. This becomes costly to our company, and in the long-run, means we can perform less service. Keep in mind that OATS Transit is a shared-ride transportation system, not a taxi. Please be kind to your fellow riders by simply calling the office to let us know if you have a change of plans. We want to be able to offer more travel options for you, but we cannot do that without your help!

Jim Stec, Vice-President Business Development at Ecolane, welcomed OATS Transit to the Ecolane family with confidence that performance results would speak for themselves. He said that we will be able to accommodate more riders without adding additional expenses.

“It is going to be a win-win for all involved,” Stec said. “Ecolane is proud to partner with OATS Transit and to have a partner that is willing to make the necessary, difficult operational changes that will enhance its customer service, not just for today but for the future of its riders.”

Other than calling a your local region office phone number to schedule, the only other aspect that may be different for some is how to pay. You can find out more information about your payment options on the next page.

It has been a yearlong process to phase in all of our service area in Missouri and it has been a long journey. As we move forward to ensure we grow in a more efficient manner, we thank all of you for adjusting to the changes along with us. We are nearing 50 years in business, and the best is yet to come. Thank you for coming along for the ride!

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The outcome of Nov. 3 election for the Orange County Water District board could jeopardize the board’s support for the Poseidon Water’s desalination plant proposed for Huntington Beach. Above, Poseidon’s desalination plant site in Carlsbad. /ADDITIONAL INF0 – – 04/06/2015 – MANDATORY CREDIT: MICHAEL GOULDING, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Poseidon Water’s long, winding road to building a desalination plant in Huntington Beach could face its biggest obstacle yet if opponents prevail in the upcoming election.

For years, the Orange County Water District has expressed interest in buying the desalted water, provided Poseidon receives the necessary regulatory permits. But the water district’s appetite for the controversial project could be in jeopardy after Nov. 3, if two board members who support the project are upset in their reelection bids and replaced by Poseidon skeptics.

That could leave the board in a 5-5 deadlock on Poseidon, short of the majority needed to approve a contract.

“If there’s not a majority, no contract would be signed,” said Bethany Webb of the activist group HB Huddle, which opposes the project. “So this is very important. The contract is the biggest piece of the puzzle.”

There’s been no sign of interest in contracting with Poseidon from any other agency that could distribute the huge volume of desalted water to be produced, enough for 450,000 people.

Incumbents are rarely defeated in down-ticket races like water districts, where the average voter has had little exposure to the candidates and their positions. But it does happen, particularly if the race includes a relatively high-profile issue like the $1 billion desalination project.

Two years ago, Poseidon opponent Kelly Rowe roundly upset Orange County Water District board incumbent Shawn Dewane, a staunch supporter, by 59%-41%.

Mounting opposition

Over the 21 years Poseidon has been pursuing the project, opposition has coalesced. A coalition of more than 20 environmental groups and scores of residents turned out to speak against the project at numerous workshops and hearings held the past two years by the Regional Water Quality Control Board, which is expected to eventually issue a permit for the project.

“Given the strong participation by the public opposed to the proposed project at the regional water board hearings, it appears to me to be feasible to gain the seats” in the upcoming election, said Michael Wellborn of the Orange County League of Conservation Voters, which opposes the project.

Proponents say the project would provide north and central Orange County with drought-proof water at a time when climate change is expected to make droughts increasingly severe.

Opponents counter that the water is unneeded, the damage to marine life is unmerited, and the price of Poseidon’s water would be twice that of imported water — and more than three times that of the area’s primary source, local groundwater.

The proposed contract between the Orange County Water District and Poseidon would oblige the district to buy 56,000 acre feet annually — enough for 450,000 people — whether it needs the more expensive desalted water or not.

A 2018 study by the Municipal Water District of Orange County said that in the best case scenario, no shortages in north and central county are projected during droughts and so there would be no need for Poseidon’s water. In the worst case scenario, less than half the 56,000 acre feet per year would be needed, according to the study.

That would leave customers paying higher prices for desalted water they didn’t need, according to the study.

Poseidon has challenged the study and said that subsequent developments in state’s “Water Fix” infrastructure plans make imported shortages more likely. Poseidon declined comment for this story.

Hurdles ahead

Poseidon and the Orange County Water District agreed in 2018 to an updated, nonbinding term sheet that specifies contract details. But a final contract can’t be approved by the water board until the company has obtained two final regulatory permits for the project.

The first of those permits would come from the Regional Water Quality Control Board, which after three days of hearings this summer appeared to have its concerns addressed — with the single exception of Poseidon’s mitigation for damage to marine life. Poseidon is looking at expanding its mitigation proposal, with a regional board vote anticipated in upcoming months.

The final permit, from the state Coastal Commission, could prove more challenging. Commission staff has said it would like to see even more mitigation than the regional board is requesting and also has raised concerns about whether the Poseidon site is safe from sea level rise.

If approved by the commission, the project would go for a final contract approval from OCWD, the de facto public sponsor of the project.

However, there’s a critical caveat should a contract be finalized.

The current term sheet says the project would be contingent on a subsidy — $475 per acre foot or $26.6 million a year for 15 years — from the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. Metropolitan has temporarily suspended the surcharge long used to fund such subsidies, dubbed the Local Resource Program.

While the agency has continued funding Local Resource Program subsidies from reserves, it is reassessing the program’s scope and future. Without that subsidy, the increased cost to Poseidon customers would be even greater.

The candidates

The 2018 term sheet detailing contract terms was approved by Orange County Water District in an 8-2 vote. Five of the directors voting “Yes” remain on the board, as do both of those voting “No.”

The two opposing directors have been joined by Rowe, who has been outspoken with his objections. The five supportive directors have been joined by Tri Ta and Jordan Brandman, who flanked the podium as fellow directors Cathy Green and Vincent Sarmiento spoke in favor of Poseidon before the regional water board last December.

That makes an apparent 7-3 split on the board in favor of Poseidon.

Poseidon supporters Green and Ta are the two incumbents facing challengers on Nov. 3. Green spoke about the need to reduce dependence on imported water — about 23% of OCWD’s current water supply — when she addressed the regional board.

“We have made progress over the past decade and desalination is the last step,” said Green, whose district includes parts of Huntington Beach and Fountain Valley. “Desalination is the only water source that is immune to climate change.”

Green’s reelection bid is being buoyed by a Poseidon-funded slate mailer, which campaign finance disclosures show cost the company $35,500 forGreen’s share. Green’s sole challenger, computer systems engineer Michael Elliott, has been endorsed by the Sierra Club, HB Huddle and the Orange County League of Conservation Voters.

Although Elliott said he doesn’t object to the concept of desalination, he opposes the Poseidon plan.

“We don’t need the water,” Elliott said. “At least not yet. … The current terms sheet forces the ratepayers to pay for this water at three times the normal rate, whether it is needed or not.”

Ta, whose district includes Los Alamitos, Seal Beach and parts of Buena Park, Cypress, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Stanton, and Westminster, did not respond to Register inquiries about his position on Poseidon. Of his four challengers, just one expressed reservations about the project to the Register.

One challenger is Kris Beard, a former Garden Grove councilman and former member of the West Orange County Water Board. He said he’s not opposed to the idea of desalted water but that a contract would need more protections from unforeseen cost hikes. He also has environmental concerns. As a councilman in 2015, he voted for a city resolution to oppose the Poseidon project.

“A desalination project of this magnitude and duration needs to be scientifically sound and economically justifiable,” he told the Register in September. “Ratepayers need to know up front what the estimated increase will be in their monthly water bill if desalinated water is purchased and used by OCWD.”

Of the three other challengers, Jasmin Carmadella said she supports the project, Samantha Bao Anh Nguyen said she was unfamiliar with it and Tai Do did not respond to Register inquiries.

If even one of the two incumbents is defeated, opponents are expected to celebrate.

“It would be significant as it would show the growing awareness on the part of voters looking to have the project scuttled,” said Wellborn of the League of Conservation Voters.

A new buyer?

Should Poseidon receive all the regulatory permits needed but then get the cold shoulder from the Orange County Water District, there are two other area water agencies with big enough consumer bases to support the massive amount of water Poseidon says it must produce for the project to be viable.

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which oversees the distribution of imported water throughout the region, has not traditionally been directly involved with local water projects, has not engaged in public-private partnerships, and tends to defer to local communities.

“The chance of Met stepping in with a contract — there’s not much chance of that,” said Metropolitan Water District Board Member Linda Ackerman of Irvine. Fellow Board Member Jose Solorio of Santa Ana shares Ackerman’s skepticism.

The other big agency is the Municipal Water District of Orange County, which distributes Metropolitan’s imported water to local districts in Orange County. The Municipal Water District has been somewhat wary of the Poseidon project, particularly in the 2018 study of county water projects where it placed Poseidon at the bottom of the list in terms of need and feasibility.

While Ackerman is among those who thinks it unlikely the Municipal Water District would contract with Poseidon, a different makeup of the that district board could conceivably change the district’s posture.

Poseidon seems to see an advantage in having friendly members on the seven-member Municipal Water District board. On the slate mailer supporting Cathy Green, Poseidon also pitched in about $35,000 each to promote the candidacies of Debbie Neev, Stacy Taylor and Tyler Diep. In that race, the Sierra Club and the League of Orange County Conservation Voters are backing incumbent Megan Yoo Schneider and longtime Municipal Water District Assistant General Manager Karl Seckel.

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Sergeant Homer Elder

Sergeant Homer Elder

Pennsylvania Railroad Police Department, Railroad Police

End of Watch Thursday, July 7, 1932

Add to My Heroes

Homer Elder

Sergeant Homer Elder was struck and killed by freight train No. VL-7 while patrolling the Panhandle Division's tracks near Point Bridge.

He and another sergeant had been dispatched to the area to remove a group of trespassers who were attempting to board slow moving freight trains.

Sergeant Elder was survived by his wife.

  • Age 40
  • Tour Not available
  • Badge Not available

Incident Details

  • Cause Struck by train
  • Location Pennsylvania

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Thank you for your service and know that your sacrifice is one that will never, ever be forgotten. Rest in peace always.

Detective Cpl/3 Steven Rizzo
Delaware State Police (Retired)

July 7, 2020

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Improbable Favored in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes Morning Line

December 10, 2019

Baffert Shooting for Record 8th Win in Middle Jewel of Triple Crown

BALTIMORE, MD – WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International and Starlight Racing, principles in the ownership group of 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, will once again be represented by a morning-line favorite for the Preakness Stakes (G1) Saturday when Improbable is scheduled to take on 12 rivals in the 144th running of the 1 3/16-mile Spring Classic at Pimlico Race Course.

Installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite, Improbable may not be as highly regarded as Justify, who was the 1-2 morning-line favorite and won the Preakness by a half-length as the 2-5 betting choice last year. However, the 3-year-old son of City Zip would appear to have a solid chance to give trainer Bob Baffert back-to-back victories and a record-breaking eighth success in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown.

Currently tied with Robert Wyndham Walden, who won the Preakness seven times from 1875-1888, Baffert has been victorious with Triple Crown champions Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015), as well as Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), Lookin At Lucky (2010) and Point Given (2001).

Improbable had the best finish of the four Preakness entrants that ran in the May 4 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs, finishing fifth before being placed fourth through the disqualification of first-place-finisher Maximum Security.

Improbable was assigned Post No.4 at Wednesday’s post position draw at Power Plant Live! in Baltimore’s Inner Harbor area.

Hall of Famer Mike Smith, who rode Justify in his Triple Crown sweep, is slated to ride Improbable for the first time Saturday.

Also representing the Kentucky Derby in the Preakness will be War of Will, Win Win Win and Bodexpress, who finished eighth, 10th and 14th, respectively, before all being bumped up a spot upon Maximum Security’s disqualification.

Gary Barber’s War of Will, who nearly clipped heels with Maximum Security when the first-place finisher drifted out into his path at Churchill Downs, was rated second in the morning line at 4-1 after drawing Post No. 1.

War of Will will be looking to rebound from back-to-back out-of-the-money finishes in the Kentucky Derby and Louisiana Derby (G2), which were preceded by stellar triumphs in the Risen Star (G2) and LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds.

Live Oak Plantation’s Win Win Win earned his way into the Derby field with a third-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and second-place finish in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland. The Michael Trombetta-trained son of Hat Trick was rated at 15-1 in the morning line after drawing Post No 13.

Top Racing LLC, Global Thoroughbred and GDS Racing Stable’s Bodexpress, who finished second behind Maximum Security in the Florida Derby (G1) to earn his way into the Derby, is winless in six career starts. With a victory Saturday, the Gustavo Delgado-trained son of 2012 Preakness runner-up Bodemeister would become the first maiden to win the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown since Refund beat only three rivals in 1888.

Bodexpress was rated at 20-1in the morning line after drawing Post No. 9.

Anothertwistafate, Alwaysmining and Laughing Fox, who all earned automatic entries by winning Preakness ‘Win and In’ races, are among the prominent newcomers to the Triple Crown scene.

Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd’s Anothertwistafate, who earned his way into the Preakness with a victory in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields before finishing second in both the Sunland Derby (G3) and Lexington (G3), drew Post No. 12 and was rated third in the morning-line at 6-1.

Runnymede Racing LLC’s Alwaysmining, who is riding a six-race winning streak, was rated at 8-1 after drawing Post No. 7 for his graded-stakes debut. Should the son of Stay Thirsty win Saturday, he would be the first Maryland-bred to capture the Preakness since Deputed Testamony (1983), as well as putting his trainer, Kelly Rubley, in the record books as the only woman to saddle a Preakness winner.

Alex and JoAnn Lieblong’s Laughing Fox, who won the ‘Win and In’ Oaklawn Park Invitational on Kentucky Derby Day, could give Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen his third Preakness winner, following Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra (2009). The son of Union Rags drew Post No. 11 and was rated at 20-1.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas is slated to saddle Robert Baker and William Mack’s Market King (Post No. 6; 30-1 in a quest for a record-equaling seventh Preakness victory.

Trainer Brad Cox is scheduled to saddle two Preakness starters, Rupp Racing’s Owendale (Post No. 5, 10-1) and Warrior’s Charge (Post No. 3; 12-1).

Also entered in the Preakness are Bourbon Lane Stable and Lake Star Stable’s Bourbon War (Post No. 2; 12-1), and Tommie Lewis, Steve Crabtree, Dean Demaree, David Bernsen, Jim Chambers and Magdalena Racing’s Signalman (Post No. 8; 30-1); and Calumet Farm’s Everfast (Post No. 10; 50-1).

Preakness Stakes Post-Position Draw Quotes

Bob Baffert (trainer, Improbable; PP #4; 5-2): “I’m fine with it. I wanted to be in the middle somewhere. That’s pretty close. I didn’t want to be way outside."

“[Jockey] Mike [Smith] will figure it out. We’ve got a few days to talk about things.”

Elliott Walden (CEO, President WinStar Farm, Improbable; PP #4; 5-2): “I thought it was fine. It looks like there’s some speed inside of Improbable, so ‘4’ looks really good.”

Mark Casse (trainer, War of Will; PP #1; 4-1): “It is what it is and we’re going to have to deal with it [Post. No. 1]. Do I wish we had drawn farther outside? Of course, but we’re going to have to deal with it. [Jockey] Tyler [Gaffalione] is going to have to play the break and see how it works. I don’t think the ‘1’ hole is quite as tough here, but I’m going to have to go study that. I didn’t study it on purpose because I was hoping not to get it.”

“We have to play the hand we we’re dealt. You never can tell how things can go. All we can hope for is a clean trip and I think if he can get that, he’s going to be tough to beat.” (On pace) “I thought the pace would be a little slower in the Derby, but they went a half in 46-and-3 [seconds]. So I don’t see it going a whole lot faster than that. We’ll be fairly close and if someone wants the lead really bad I guess they’ll have it.”

“I think he’s doing good. I think he’s doing as well as Classic Empire [second in 2017 Preakness]. This horse has a lot of energy and he’s extremely tough.”

“We definitely know the (‘1’ hole) is not as bad as in the Derby. You have Bourbon War who is going to come from out of it. Warrior’s Charge he’s fast. But I think if he tries to get in front of War of Will – that could be his demise. One thing about it is the ‘1’ hole can be extremely good or extremely bad. In the Derby it was extremely bad, so I’m thinking we’re going to get extremely good this time.”

Blaine Wright (trainer, Anothertwistafate; PP #12; 6-1): “For right now it’s going to have to be our spot. You can’t change things. We’ll take it, move forward and see how good we are.”

"We’ve been covered up a little bit in the Sunland Derby and the Lexington, so maybe he can keep his face clean from out there. Maybe our jockey can adapt to things that are happening in front of him. If we have the lead, well, hey, we have the lead.”

“I’m not going to make that assumption at this point [how the race plays out]. I’ll wait to see it on paper. We just have to hope that our horse comes away from the gate well. It’s a long run to the first turn and we’ll just let the jock do the work.”

Kelly Rubley (trainer, Alwaysmining; PP #7; 8-1): “We’re happy. It looks like there is a little bit of speed in this race, so we’ll have to see how we break and take it from there. I think my horse belongs in this field, he deserves a shot. We’re just really happy and grateful to be here.”

Brad Cox (trainer, Owendale; PP #5; 10-1; Warrior’s Charge, PP #3, 12-1): “I like the post with Owendale. I don’t think it matters a whole lot with him with the post. I’m happy with it. Warrior’s Charge drawing the ‘3,’ maybe a little bit closer to the inside than I would have liked. Improbable is outside of him and War of Will inside. I’d actually have preferred to be to the outside of both of them. But we’ll see how it plays out. That’s up to the jocks what happens once they break them out of the gate, where to place them.”

“As far as Warrior’s Charge, the draw was probably a little more important for him. He did draw closer than I’d like. It kind of forces our hand maybe just a little bit. But we’ll see what happens. It’s a long run to the first turn. Ultimately, I do feel the fastest horse will get the lead, and our horse is naturally fast. He’s got a high cruising speed, and we’ll see what he can do.”

Mark Hennig (trainer, Bourbon War; PP #2; 12-1): “At least we won't get hung wide outside this time, hopefully. We think he'll be more tractable with the blinkers on and just fall in behind the pace and save some ground.”

“[The blinkers will] put him more in the bridle. We tried breezing him with them and it seemed to make him a little more aggressive. Sometimes you want to make first run on horses and we've been getting second or third run on some of the horses and it may have cost us a placing a time or two.”

Michael Trombetta (trainer, Win Win Win; PP #13; 15-1): “The post [13] has its ups and downs. We’re not going to be in there long; we'll be in and out. If we get away clean and get on over, hopefully, we'll find a space and we’ll settle in wherever the rider wants him to be. I’ve drawn [so-called] good posts before, and ironically, the horse next to me bumps into me. We just have to work with what they give us.”

Alex Lieblong (owner, Laughing Fox; PP #11; 20-1): “Well he won the Oaklawn Invitational from the ‘10’ hole so maybe they’ll scoot over and he can get to the rail. I don’t think he’ll go up there with the leaders. I probably wouldn’t have picked [that post] but it’s probably not the end of the world for his style.”

“I think there will be plenty of people chasing around there is my guess. What he did at Oaklawn there was certainly I’d think you‘d have to qualify that as somewhat of a speed bias track that day. And so if he can do it on that much of a speed bias track, you know I don’t have any worry about him if he gets his trip.”

Gustavo Delgado (trainer, Bodexpress; PP #9; 20-1): “There’s probably going to be a lot of speed, more speed than the Derby. But he has speed to get position. We like the ‘9.’ It’s a good spot.”

D. Wayne Lukas (trainer, Market King; PP #6; 30-1): “It’s a good spot. I think if you take out Improbable and War of Will it’s a toss-up.’’

Ken McPeek (trainer, Signalman; PP #8; 30-1): “We're good with the post. It's fine.”

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“Mark Casse's horse, obviously, on the inside, I don't know what commitment they'll make. My horse is just going to break well, settle and find a place to run. Hopefully, we'll be mid-pack.”

Dale Romans (trainer, Everfast; PP #10; 50-1): “It's a tough spot, but we're ready. We'll try and wiggle our way into a piece of it. He's done it before. We'll lead him over and see what happens. The post [10] will be all right. Hopefully, we'll get over by the first turn.”

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Bulldog Hotel - 1 Bdrm + Alcove - Silver Star

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Located on the lower floor of The Bulldog Hotel are these 1-Bedroom Alcove Apartments with Kitchen. The bedroom area is equipped with One King Bed, two sets of Single/Single Bunks in a private alcove and a full bathroom.

There is also a TV located in each sleeping area. The main living space has a dining area, living room with a sofa & TV, an additional full bathroom and ski storage. The kitchen consists of a full size fridge, stove, oven, microwave oven, coffeemaker and all cooking and eating equipment. FREE Wireless Internet access.

Special Note: *Rates are based on double occupancy, extra person fee of $20/person/night apply to adults 19 and over.
**Pet fee of $30/pet/night must be paid at time of booking.

  • Bedrooms: 1
  • Sleeps: 6
  • Bathrooms: 1

  • Master - King
    Alcove - 2 Single/Single Bunks

  • Ski In/Ski Out
  • Pets Allowed With Approval
  • Internet Access
  • Kitchenette
  • Microwave
  • TV +
  • Wireless Internet

  • Skiing
  • Snowboarding
  • Childcare
  • Day Spa
  • Groceries
  • Guest Services
  • Night Life
  • Rental Equipment
  • Restaurants
  • Shopping Skating
  • Sleigh Rides
  • Snowsport Academy
  • Tube Town

Season Rates Min. Nights

*All rates are quoted in Canadian dollars and are subject to additional local taxes and fees.

**Monthly rates apply to stays of 3 months or longer.

Call To Book: 1.888.763.6373

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Audio: Nneka 'Shining Star (Hot Chip Remix)'

Nneka's "Shining Star" takes a turn towards the London club courtesy of Hot Chip vocalist/keyboardist Joe Goddard. Goddard only keeps the Nigerian soulstress' vocals, laying trinkets of her phrases over a brooding house progression. Stream "Shining Star (Joe Goddard Remix)" below and check out a previous underworld dub remix of "My Home" by Digital Mystikz.

Photo: Courtesy of the artist

Emile YX? Wants to 'Reconnect The String'

The father of South African hip-hop's latest book release is here to teach you about the culture.

As a father-figure in South African hip-hop, there's a lot Emile Lester Jansen, aka Emile YX?, knows. He'll also tell you, there's a lot he doesn't. But the knowledge Emile has gained, over his 3 decades in music, he's always tried to share with others. His latest project is no different. The Black Noise founder is working on a book that identifies the similarities between Bushmen expression and hip-hop, and how this knowledge can help empower anyone who has a love of the culture.

The book, which will be called Reconnect The String, comes on the back of this year's 21st anniversary of the African Hip Hop Indaba, one of the landmark hip hop events in Cape Town created by Emile, which has helped many an artist launch their career. As a teacher and a musician, he's long been involved in using hip hop to uplift communities—first through the seminal group Black Noise, founded in the late 1980s, with its rhymes rallying against Apartheid, and then through the Heal the Hood organization, a non-profit that grew out of the group's efforts to use its love of hip hop to fuel youth development initiatives in townships on the Cape Flats.

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Interview: Sango's ‘Da Rocinha 4’ Is a Polished & Grinding Take On Baile Funk

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