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Heavy Duty Winch 4500lb with Mount Kit Polaris Ranger XP900 XP 900 13-18

Heavy Duty Winch 4500lb with Mount Kit Polaris Ranger XP900 XP 900 13-18

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  • MSRP: $371.85
  • You Save: $18.25 (5%)
  • Brand: KFI
  • Color: Black
  • Style: Standard
  • Condition: New
  • SKU: 10-0122/10-1345
  • Manufacturer Part Number: U45-R2/101345
  • Surface Finish: Black
  • Warranty: 1 Year
  • Part Type: Winch with Mounting Included
  • Placement on Vehicle: Front
  • Fits: UTV
  • Country of Manufacture: United States
  • Compatible Make: Polaris
  • Compatible Model: Ranger 900xp
  • Years: 2015-2018
New Arrival, Special Heavy Duty Winch with Mounting System. Ready to Install.

Brand new for the following:

Polaris Brutus 2013+
Diesel Ranger Full-Size 4x4 2015-2018
570 Ranger Full-Size 4x4 2015
570 Ranger XP Full-Size 4x4 (New Body Style Only) 2016*
900 Ranger Full-Size 4x4 2013-2018
Does NOT Fit 2016+ 570 Old Body Styl

Winch Details:
Whether it's on a winding trail, plowing snow or deep in the mud, a reliable winch is the most important accessory a rider can have. Equip your UTV or SxS with a KFI WINCH and feel confident you can pull yourself out of any situation. This 4500lb UTV Series winch features quality cast aluminum and durable steel components, Water Resistant seals to keep the elements out, a standard 4-hole mounting design and a heavy duty all metal turn clutch. It is also backed by a KFI 1-Year Limited Warranty. The KFI U45-R2 Winch comes with everything you need including a UTV model specific winch mount. Everything shown is included along with detailed installation instructions and hardware to mount your winch to a model specific UTV winch mount.

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Betty Parris: First Afflicted Girl of the Salem Witch Trials

Elizabeth “Betty” Parris was the first afflicted girl and one of the chief accusers during the Salem Witch Trials of 1692.

Born in Boston on November 28, 1682, Betty moved to Salem with her family and slave Tituba in November of 1689 when her father, Samuel Parris, was appointed the new minister of Salem Village.

Betty Parris & the Salem Witch Trials:

In the winter of 1691-1692, some of the afflicted girls reportedly dabbled in fortune-telling techniques, such as a “venus glass” in which the girls dropped an egg white into a glass of water so that a shape or symbol appeared, in an attempt to learn more about their future husbands and social status.

Although some sources indicate that it was Tituba who taught the girls these fortune-telling techniques, there is no mention of this in the court records and no evidence that she was involved.

According to the book A Modest Enquiry Into the Nature of Witchcraft by local minister, Reverend John Hale, on one of these occasions the girls became terrified when they saw the shape of a coffin in the glass.

"The House Where Witchcraft Started," photo of the Salem Village Parsonage, home of Samuel Parris, Danvers, Mass, published in Witchcraft Illustrated by Henrietta D. Kimball, circa 1892. This house is actually just an addition that was added to the parsonage house in 1734. The original parsonage house was torn down in 1784 and this addition was then moved to Sylvan Street in Danvers.

“The House Where Witchcraft Started,” photo of the Salem Village Parsonage, home of Samuel Parris, Danvers, Mass, published in Witchcraft Illustrated by Henrietta D. Kimball, circa 1892. This house is actually just an addition that was added to the parsonage house in 1734. The original parsonage house was torn down in 1784 and this addition was then moved to Sylvan Street in Danvers.

Shortly after the incident, Betty began behaving strangely in January of 1692, when she hid under furniture, complained of fever, barked like a dog, screamed and cried out in pain.

Soon after, Abigail Williams also started showing the same symptoms. Concerned, Samuel Parris called for a local doctor, who is believed to be Dr. Griggs, to examine them.

Unable to find anything physically wrong with the girls, the doctor determined they must be bewitched.

Hale described the events in his book A Modest Enquiry Into the Nature of Witchcraft:

“In the latter end of the year 1691, Mr. Samuel Parris, pastor of the church is Salem Village, had a daughter of nine, and a niece of about eleven years of age, sadly afflicted of they knew not what distempers; and he made his application to the physicians, yet still they grew worse: And at length one physician gave his opinion, that they were under an evil hand. This the neighbours quickly took up, and concluded they were bewitched.

He had also an Indian man servant, and his wife who afterward confessed, that without the knowledge of their master or mistress, they had taken some of the afflicted persons urine, and mixing it with meal had made a cake, & baked it, to find out the witch, as they said.

After this, the afflicted persons cryed out of the Indian woman, named Tituba, that she did pinch, prick and grievously torment them, and that they saw her here and there, where nobody else could. Yet they could not tell where she was, and what she did, when out of their humane sight.

These children were bitten and pinched by invisible agents: their arms, necks and backs turned this way and that way, and returned back again, so as it was, impossible for them to do of themselves, and beyond the power of any epileptick fits, or natural disease disease to effect. Sometimes they were taken dumb, their mouth flopped, their throats choaked, their limbs wracked and tormented so as might move an heart of stone, to sympathize with them, with bowels of compassion for them.”

Although the residents of Salem believed the girls were bewitched, modern theories suggest the girls were possibly suffering from either boredom, child abuse, epilepsy, mental illness or even a disease brought on by eating fungus infected rye.

In an attempt to cure Betty and prevent her from getting further involved in the witch trials, her parents sent her away from Salem Village (which is now modern day Danvers) to live in the home of Samuel Parris’ cousin Stephen Sewall in Salem town.

According to the book An Account of the Life, Character, & c. of Samuel Parris, Betty continued to have fits when living in the Sewall household but eventually recovered:

"Tituba and the Children," illustration by Alfred Fredericks, published in A Popular History of the United States, circa 1878

“Tituba and the Children,” illustration by Alfred Fredericks, published in A Popular History of the United States, circa 1878

“Parris appears to have been very desirous of preventing his daughter, Elizabeth, from participating in the excitement at the village. She was sent by her father, at the commencement of the delusion, to reside at Salem with Capt. Stephen Sewall.

While there, the Captain and his wife were much discouraged in effecting a cure, as she continued to have sore fits. Elizabeth said that the great black man, came to her, and told her, if she would be ruled by him, she should have whatever she desired, and go to a Golden city.

She related this to Mrs. Sewall, who immediately told the child it was the devil, and he was a liar, and bid her to tell him so if he came to her again; which she did accordingly the next time the black man came to her. The devil, it it would seem, unaccustomed, in those days, to experience such resistance, and utterly astonished at the cool impudence of Betty Parris, never troubled her afterwards; and, although this girl was one of the first originators of the witchcraft delusion, in connection with her cousin Abigail Williams, she appears to have had, afterwards, but little to do with witchcraft.

This arose in consequence of following the sage advice of Mrs. Sewall, in getting rid of the devil; or, what was more probable, in her father taking her from the weekly circle of accusing and bewitching girls, and placing her in a very respectable family in Salem.”

Although Betty’s name appeared on the first complaint during the trials, she never testified in any court.

Betty Parris After the Salem Witch Trials:

The Salem Witch Trials ended in 1693 and Samuel Parris was later dismissed from his job, in 1697, after years of quarrels and lawsuits between him and his parishioners.

Parris then moved away from Salem with Betty and his family, serving as a preacher in Dunstable and then Sudbury, where Betty lived until adulthood.

In 1710, Betty married a shoemaker, named Benjamin Baron, and had four children. She passed away at her home in Sudbury, Ma on March 21, 1760.

Betty Parris appeared as a supporting character in Arthur Miller’s 1953 play The Crucible. In the play, Betty accuses her cousin Abigail Williams of practicing witchcraft and drinking blood in order to kill John Proctor’s wife Elizabeth, although this did not happen in real life.

Although many of the Salem residents involved in the witch trials were immediately remorseful for their actions and apologized for what they had done, Betty Parris never issued an apology.

Only one of the afflicted girls, Ann Putnam Jr., ever apologized for her actions during the Salem Witch Trials.

The site of the Salem Village Parsonage, where Betty Parris lived at the time of the Salem Witch Trials, was excavated in 1970 and is open to visitors.

Betty Parris Historical Sites:

Salem Village Parsonage Archaeological Site
Address: Rear 67 Centre Street, Danvers, Ma (site is accessible via a cart path)

Fowler, Samuel P. An Account of the Life, Character, & c. of Samuel Parris. William Ives and George W. Pease, 1857.
Mather, Cotton. The Wonders of the Invisible World. John Dunton, 1693.
Boyer, Paul Samuel. Salem Possessed: The Social Origins of Witchcraft. Harvard University Press, 1974.
Norton, Mary Beth. In the Devil’s Snare: The Salem Witchcraft Crisis of 1692. Vintage Books, 2002.
Roach, Marilynne K. The Salem Witch Trials: A Day-by-day Chronicle Of A Community Under Siege. Taylor Trade Publishing, 2004.
Goss, K David. The Salem Witch Trials: A Reference Guide. Greenwood Press, 2008.
Hale, John. A Modest Enquiry Into the Nature of Witchcraft. B. Green and J. Allen, 1702.

Betty Parris: First Afflicted Girl of Salem Witch Trials

About Rebecca Beatrice Brooks

Rebecca Beatrice Brooks is the writer and publisher of the History of Massachusetts Blog. Rebecca is a freelance writer and history lover who got her start in journalism working for small-town newspapers in Massachusetts and New Hampshire after she graduated from the University of New Hampshire with a B.A. in journalism. Visit this site's About page to find out more about Rebecca.

12 thoughts on “Betty Parris: First Afflicted Girl of the Salem Witch Trials

  1. Jennifer Noah

    This was all caused by Ergot, which is found in wheat. By eating this one will have delusions, vommiting, convulsions and uncontrolled fits.

    1. -Post-Catastrophe-

      The rye the people ate had been completely poisoned by the ergot, since it spreads so quickly. In saying this, you mean to say that everyone in both Salems would have been contaminated. It is possible that ergot did it, but I believe it is very unlikely. One theory I believe in is that all accusers had done this because of the Puritan rules. In not being allowed to do activities most kids take part in, such as talking and playing with friends, they were expected NOT to do that, and act as adults do. Since the Puritans are against witchcraft, and would do most anything to remove it from the world, they were terrified that people could take part in the “Devil’s Magic.” When Abigail and Betty started acting up, it was clear to them this was the work of evil, and they took it as their duty to destroy the “evil.” The girls could have taken this as an opportunity to have fun, and act out as if they were allowed to. This is just a theory, but I believe it could be the cause of all of this. Sorry for the delay in having this posted… I have just found this site today (the day I am posting this) Anyways.. thanks for reading!

    1. Rin Clark

      Yea, there are some people who speculate that they were faking it because they only seized when people came to visit them and the girls didn’t show any of the symptoms, as stated in the article. Everything that they showed could have been faked and people with Ergot poisoning throw up and have diarrhea.

  2. J ana

    That photo purporting to be of the Samuel Parris house is not the original house. There are no photos of the original house. The house in the photo was built in the 1800s using some lumber from the original house’s addition and that addition was built after Parris had moved elsewhere. Lumber from the original house was used in Rev. Wadsworth’s rear addition, which is still on Centre St. in Danvers (Salem Village).

  3. Denissa Roberts

    I am very interested in the Salem Witch Trials and I always have been, now I get the opportunity to finally wright about. But I didn’t know exactly as much as I thought I did. And anybody willing to share there knowledge would be greatly appreciated. thank you I just have always been intrigued by the view of the accused, and I have so many questions. What did being accused feel like? And what if you really wasn’t a witch and still was found guilty, what would last thoughts be as you headed to your death. Would you plead your case and convince them your not a witch. Or would simply accept your fate and pray to whom ever they may pray to.

    1. purplepie

      If you were a good citizen, like Martha Corey or Rebecca Nurse (both accused of witchcraft during the trials), then you would probably feel confident at first that people wouldn’t decide you were guilty of witchcraft. Especially if you didn’t live nearby, and didn’t realize just how hysterical the villagers had become. Secondly, if you confessed then you would not be killed. These people were deeply religious, and they thought that if you confessed to your sins then God would judge you. You would be disrespected and your property would be given to the government, but you would live. If you pleaded innocent then you would be hanged. Giles Corey refused to say anything at his trial so they put rocks on him to ‘press the truth out of him’ he never confessed and his final word were “more weight”. Still more people died in jail waiting to be judged.

  4. JLF

    Do you possibly have the source for Tituba and the training of girls in fortune telling, specifically “venus glasses”? I would like to compare it to a similar practice in Newfoundland.

    1. Rebecca Beatrice Brooks Post author

      It comes from Rev. John Hale’s book A Modest Enquiry Into the Nature of Witchcraft but all it says is one of the girls put an egg in a glass to find her future husband’s calling and saw the coffin shape instead.

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Library Policies

Welcome to the Highland Middle School Media Center.  The Media Center is a place for information access, the encouragement of reading, and the use of technology.  The Media Center provides a wide variety of resources which include reference materials (in both text and online formats), hardcover and paperback fiction, a wide selection of nonfiction books, biographies,  books on tape, magazines, newspapers, Internet access, computer programs, and more.  I hope that you will make good use of the library and visit it often.

                                                                                Mrs. Durkel

                                                                                Media Specialist

When can I come to the library?

After school

At lunch

Between classes

During the day with a pass from your teacher

During SRT (you must get an SRT pass from Mrs. Durkel BEFORE SRT)

How do I come to the library during SRT?

If you would like to visit during your SRT period, come to the media center sometime during the day and ask for an SRT pass.  The pass will allow you to come to the library to do research or complete work on the computer.   SRT passes for the media center should NOT be used to check out or return books.

You must report to your SRT teacher first, show him/her your pass, and then come to the media center.  Bring homework with you, as you will not be allowed to go to your locker and will stay in the media center until the end of the SRT period.

How can I find out if the library has a book that I am looking for?

The online catalog or library browser is located on the computers in the media center.  It can also be accessed online from any computer with Internet access at the Highland Middle School website.

How many books may I check out?

 6th graders may check out up to three books on their account.

7th and 8th graders may check out up to five books.

How long can a book be checked out?

A book and books on tape may be checked out for two weeks. Reference books cannot be checked out.

What happens if I turn a book in late?

Fines for overdue books are 5¢ per school day for each item checked out.  Please return borrowed books on time.

Can magazines be checked out?

Current magazines are on the display shelves for your use in the media center.  Current magazines may not be checked out.  Back issues are kept for up to three years in the rear storage area and can be checked out overnight.

How many magazines may I check out?

You may check out up to three magazines.

How long can magazines be checked out?

Magazines are due the next school day after they are checked out.  They are due before the beginning of first hour (Discover).

Is there a fine if magazines are returned late?

Overdue fines for magazines are 5¢ per class period for each magazine that is late.

What happens if I damage a book?

It is your responsibility to return all materials that you check out in good condition and on time.  Students that return materials in a damaged condition will be assessed a damage fee.  Current replacement costs are charged for badly damaged materials.

What happens if I lose a book or magazine?

If you lose a book, you must pay for a new book. The minimum replacement cost for a book is $5.00 and can be much higher, depending on the cost of the book.  If you find a lost book after you have paid for it, bring the book to the library and you will be issued a refund.

The replacement cost for magazines is $7.50 each.

Can I still check out a book if I owe a fine?

No.  Students with fines or overdue items are NOT allowed to check out any additional items until the items are returned and all fines are paid.


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mango peach smoothi

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Mango and Peach Smoothie

  • 2 peaches, pitted
  • 1 Alphonso mango, peeled and pitted
  • 1 banana, fresh or frozen
  • 1/2 lemon, peel and pith removed
  • 1/2 tsp turmeric powder
  • 1″ ginger root
  • 1 cup cold water
  • 1 cup ice cubes

Directions: Blend all ingredients until smooth.

Don’t forget to check out my previous Beauty Detox Recipe Challenges and make sure to try Kim’s Summer Beauty Smoothie!

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    • Thanks! While I still don’t love biting into a hunk of ginger in my Chinese food, I love using it in all my smoothies and grating into food.

  1. Definitely going to have to try this tonight with some fresh peaches from my friends farm. I’ve been juicing watermelon so I might have to try adding ginger to that too.

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text:
Kenneth L. Simons

Research into industry dynamics and technological change.
Economics Department
Russell Sage Laboratory
110 8th Street
Troy, NY 12180-3590

Phone +1 518 276 3296
Fax +1 518 276 2235
Email simonk [at]

Joint faculty in Management
Investigator, LESA NSF ERC
Economics Graduate Program Director

  • Papers
  • CV (pdf)
  • Paper abstracts (pdf)
  • Research overview
  • Teaching background

  • Below:
    1. Shakeouts in industrial competition
    2. Cross-country industry comparisons
    3. Entry characteristics and survival
    4. Technology and competition
    5. Theories of shakeouts
    6. The internet and industry competition
    7. Inventor motivations
  • Course Materials for Students
  • Research Resources
  • Data & Code
  • Technical Materials

  • 8. Creation of new industries
    9. National innovation system
    10. Merger and acquisition
    11. Employee policies
    12. Regulatory ratchet effects
    13. Economic growth with dictatorships
    14. Environment and technology
    15. Global change models

    Ken Simons
    PhD & Undergraduate Research Opportunities for RPI Students

    Paid or for-credit positions are often available for RPI PhD students and undergraduates (who have not yet graduated), to help with research.  For summer 2017, one undergraduate position is currently available as noted below.  For positions in fall or spring, undergraduates please apply at or just before the start of term.  Undergraduates may also apply for summer funding at the very beginning of the spring term, or in the late fall, when it is possible to apply for special URP funding.  The undergraduate positions do not require specific skills, and students from all majors are encouraged to apply.  Some work may benefit from skills with programming in general or LiveCode specifically, so students with these skills are particularly encouraged to apply.

    The following forms can be used to apply for all positions.  If only certain projects interest you, please say so on the first page.  Use the appropriate one of the following forms: (1) undergraduate application form for jobs during summer, (2) undergraduate application form for jobs during fall/spring, or (3) PhD student application form for jobs during summer.

    Research opportunity for Summer 2017:

  • Undergraduate students: Research on industry emergence and technological change, to investigate potential new technologies.

  • Shakeout in the US tire industry Shakeouts in Competitive Markets

    Does this near-extinction look familiar?  Most industries that have been around for at least several decades have experienced some amount of shakeout, in which the number of companies drops off.  Shakeouts are no historical artifact; they happen all the time.  What's more, they happen despite rapid market growth.

    A series of papers joint with co-author Steven Klepper probes the causes of industry shakeouts.  The papers explore some of the most fundamental issues of economics: competition in its raw form as it plays out over time.  They also help understand one of the most important issues in economics: technological change, which yields the bulk of economic growth.

    Reference: Steven Klepper and Kenneth L. Simons, "The Making of an Oligopoly: Firm Survival and Technological Change in the Evolution of the U.S. Tire Industry," Journal of Political Economy, August 2000, vol. 108 no. 4, pp. 728-760. Get Published Paper

    Experience shakeouts yourself in my industry simulator (try game versions 2 and 3), which gives a first-hand experience in how real shakeouts seem usually to happen.  Beta-test version, supports Internet Explorer and Safari (sorry not yet Firefox).

    UK tire manufacturers experienced a severe shakeout, like US manufacturers. Industry Dynamics: A Big Deja Vu

    Look familiar again?  Industry competitive dynamics usually are.  The same processes seem to be at work within and across different countries.  This recent study compared matched industries between the US and the UK to see if product-specific traits, rather than random events and the national environment, seem to explain competitive dynamics.  After years of tedious data collection, I expected and hoped to see some similarity across the two countries, but I was shocked how well the numbers matched up.

    Industries with shakeouts had shakeouts in both nations, and the severity of the shakeout -- as measured by the % drop in number of companies -- was quite similar.  The timing of the peak in number of firms was often almost identical across the two countries.  And in each country the same industries were lacking in shakeouts (not all industries have shakeouts, and there are good reasons why not).

    This tells something fundamental about how industries work.  There are driving mechanisms, that work the same in different environments, stem from underlying product-related characteristics such as the nature of the product's technology, and determine the overarching dynamics of how competition plays out in the market.  Of course there are international differences, particularly in terms of which country's producers win or lose when a market goes global.  But the differences are much less than we might have guessed.

    Reference: Kenneth L. Simons, "Product Market Characteristics and the Industry Life Cycle."  Working paper, 2011. Get Working Paper

    Exit rates for nonradio producers far exceeded those of radio producers. Dominance by Birthright

    When you're a company, it helps to be born with muscle.  That's one of the findings of a study of US radio producers when they began manufacturing televisions.  The firms were almost the only ones with the engineering know-how and other traits to succeed in this new market.  They set up new production lines relatively efficiently and began improving their products.  Improvement is a big deal in an industry with tight cost margins and with the repairman having to come every two months on average in the early days of television.  Some of the radio producers became the big firms, and out-innovated the others.  In fact, I counted all the manufacturing innovations I could catalog from industrial journals, and found that the big firms - born of the radio days - dominated innovation.  The market went through a big shakeout that wiped out most firms.

    Too bad the US firms died their death too - they couldn't keep up in the face of international competition.  Japanese and other foreign firms entered US production with just as much brawn already in hand, and they had better products.  Transistor radios may have seemed cheap at first, but the transistor was key to lower-cost manufacturing and fewer breakdowns.  US companies ever after lagged 1-2 generations behind in their integrated circuits.  The last of the US heavyweights, Zenith, was acquired by Goldstar of Korea in 1995.

    Reference: Steven Klepper and Kenneth L. Simons, "Dominance by Birthright: Entry of Prior Radio Producers and Competitive Ramifications in the U.S. Television Receiver Industry," Strategic Management Journal, October-November 2000, vol. 21 no. 10-11, pp. 997-1016. Get Working Paper Get Published Edition

    Penicillin price plummeted while production zoomed to cure patients Technology and Shakeouts

    Why do industry shakeouts happen?  There are different ways to tell, but one way is to dig deeply into technological evidence.  This study does just that.  It's hefty, 3-4 times longer than the usual journal article, even after we trimmed it down.  It has to be so long because there's a lot to know about technological change in products with shakeouts.

    This study uses a sample of four products, automobiles, tires, televisions, and penicillin, in order to look back over the long span of time at products we know had very severe shakeouts.  For each product, innovation in the product and manufacturing process are reviewed with tables of the major innovations and a systematic review of the means to quality and cost improvement.  For both product and process improvement, for all four products, the large producers dominated the lists of innovations.

    Many other products aren't like this, but in these products something -- seemingly, the need for innovation inside firms -- caused some early entrants' market share dominance and the industries' shakeouts.  What was going on here is systematic domination of innovation by the leading firms.  They're the only ones for whom it made sense to hire huge cadres of engineers and scientists and other smart people who made their companies' success.  The innovative process isn't glamorous; in fact it can be greasy and sweaty, but it's what beats the competition and earns profits.

    Reference: Steven Klepper and Kenneth L. Simons, "Technological Extinctions of Industrial Firms: An Inquiry into their Nature and Causes," Industrial and Corporate Change, March 1997, vol. 6 no. 2, pp. 379-460. Get Working Paper Get Published Paper

    Exit rates versus time in the four products Shakeout Theories: Firm Survival Evidence

    Shakeouts have become a hot topic for research recently, and an increasing number of theories seeks to explain them.  This paper digs into the evidence to find out why they happen.  A companion piece to the above paper on technology and shakeouts, this paper emphasizes firm survival patterns.  Common theories of shakeouts involving technological change turn out to have sharply contrasting implications for which firms should survive and when they should exit.

    The notion that a single innovation from outside an industry triggers the extinctions turns out to be an extinct idea.  Suppose firms had to adapt their product and manufacturing methods to the new technology, but once they adapted fine then they could be reasonable competitors.  Then there should be a temporary mass exodus, with a rise in the exit rate until the surviving firms are all ones that have adapted.  But that doesn't happen.  In general, the rate of exit doesn't rise in a shakeout.  Instead, new companies stop entering the market and steady competition continually drives out the less-profitable firms.

    A popular idea of "dominant designs" in the product has also been applied to shakeouts.  But while dominant designs are an important concept, they don't seem cause shakeouts (arguments of dominant design proponents notwithstanding).  If firms had to get used to a dominant design to survive, eventually the survivors would be used to the design and the exit rate would decline.  This doesn't happen.  (And there's more evidence in the earlier technology paper.)

    What does matter is constant innovation.  Using systematic compilations of information about firm innovation, this paper shows that survival is directly and massively related to constant innovation.

    Reference: Steven Klepper and Kenneth L. Simons, "Industry Shakeouts and Technological Change."  International Journal of Industrial Organization, vol. 23 no. 1-2, February 2005, pp. 23-43. Get Working Paper Get Published Edition

    % of Incumbent versus Entrant IT Consultancies in the UK with Selected Applications
    Recent Entrants Incumbents
    MS-DOS 1987 34.9% 29.1%
    Internet 1995 22.4% 13.0%
    The Internet: A Disruptive Competitive Force?

    There's a lot of talk about the internet changing the nature of competition.  From all the talk, you might expect such changes have had an effect already.  Yet few studies have checked for evidence of change.  I looked at the evidence, focusing on an industry in which disruptive competitive change is likely to have shown up relatively early.  The industry is IT consultancies in the United Kingdom, one of the leading countries at internet adoption.

    Theories of disruptive technologies describe a real phenomenon, where upstart firms displace previous industry leaders.  Such theories imply that a disruptive technology increases opportunities for market entry, enhances the chances of survival and growth for entrants relative to incumbents, and causes a wave of exit of firms unsuccessful at the new technology.  I looked at actual entry and exit patterns to see if the predictions for disruptive technology are occurring yet.  I also checked which firms set up internet-related areas of business and whether they achieved enhanced survival and growth thereafter.

    The findings through the year 2001 do not match the telltale signs expected if the internet has been a radical disruptive technology.  Perhaps, as Michael Porter argued in a recent Harvard Business Review article, the internet will not change the dynamics and strategies of business competition, but merely intensify them and make current strategic concerns all the more relevant.

    Reference: Kenneth L. Simons, "Information Technology and Dynamics of Industry Structure: The UK IT Consulting Industry as a Contemporary Specimen."  Working paper, 2002. Get Working Paper Get Slides

    Thomas Edison Inventors Seeking Gains

    Economic research has uncovered many oddities about entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs would appear to be unrealistically optimistic, wishful thinkers, risk seekers, or just plain driven by their own interests. Moreover, human subject experiments suggest ordinary people - and by implication entrepreneurs - overestimate their own chances of success, and so enter markets despite predicting that entrants will typically lose money. Indeed real entrepreneurs do lose money, relative to what similar people make in corporate jobs. With all these findings, it would seem we should be pessimistic about the way entrepreneurs operate. Yet the empirical evidence on entrepreneurs has largely been based on aggregate patterns, and there has been little attempt to find out how much entrepreneurs respond to profit-related incentives.

    The independent inventor is the quintessential entrepreneur, and perhaps the most important entrepreneur, since a substantial fraction of our society's new products have come from independent inventors. This study used data on advance estimates of profit-related characteristics of inventions, and matched the data to inventors' actual decisions whether to commercialize the inventions (and later whether to exit), as well as the inventors' stated reasons for their decisions. By using a very general yet simple theoretical model, we predict how inventors should behave if they respond rationally with profit-seeking motives. It turns out that the financial incentives really do matter in inventors' decisions, and in fact the evidence suggests independent inventors are averse to risk, just like most people.

    Reference: Kenneth L. Simons and Thomas Astebro, "Entrepreneurs Seeking Gains: Profit Motives and Risk Aversion in Inventors' Commercialization Decisions," Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, vol. 19 no. 4, Winter 2010. Get Working Paper Get Published Edition

    LED light bulb How the Light Bulb Was Remade

    Economic growth would have been awfully little without technological progress. That is, without the vehicles, electrical and electronic goods, improvements in medicine, agricultural techniques, and tools and machines created since 1500, we would still be living in a world like... the 1500s. Yet, what understanding have we of how all those new products are created? The answer is, not much. A lot of research has focused on how industry competition works after an industry is created, and some has focused on the drivers of new inventions, but the complicated and messy middle ground between invention and industry creation has received little attention.

    That's why this study of the making of an industry is so important. It maps out what we know about how industries get made, and reflects on and adds to the map of existing knowledge by analyzing an important and surprisingly fascinating case. That case is solid state lighting. Commonly known as "LED light bulbs," solid-state lights use semiconductor techniques to emit a glow that could be white or tailored to a specific color. As road vehicles at their dawn were odd experiments designed like horse carriages driving on dirt roads, so the LED lights of today are merely a bit more efficient than compact fluorescent bulbs; lack features that one day may be taken for granted, such as universal electronic control, sensing and auto-adjustment and auto-on/off, and data communications embedded in the light flow; and are constrained to the outdated shape of the Edison screw base and old household wiring. The LED bulbs you see in stores today may seem a simple invention and a simple product revolution, but they weren't.

    This analysis documents how tens of thousands of researchers contributed to the development of solid-state lighting over a half-century. The technology took surprising twists and turns, gradually improving but with major jumps when key inventors found new means to solve old problems. Patent battles and rivalry to find new profit opportunities contributed to the twists and turns. Niche markets provided stepping stones along which the progress of technology made its lurching way, with businesses joining and falling off from the progress at different steps. All these findings are pieces of a prototypical story of how most industries seem to emerge.

    In this case, a few of the researchers involved have won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Physics for their efforts.

    Reference: Susan Walsh Sanderson and Kenneth L. Simons, "Light Emitting Diodes and the Lighting Revolution: The Emergence of a Solid-State Lighting Industry," Research Policy, vol. 43 no. 10, December 2014, pp. 1730-1746. Get Working Paper Get Published Edition FREE access through 5 Dec. 2014

    Also related: Susan Sanderson, Kenneth L. Simons, Judith Walls, and Yin-Yi Lai, "Lighting Industry," in Innovation in Global Industries - U.S. Firms Competing in a New World, National Academies Press, 2008, pp. 163-205. This volume is a focus report of the National Academies. Covered in Business Week (slide show gives industry-specific coverage). Get Working Paper Get Published Edition

    Patent analysis of solid-state lighting development: Kenneth L. Simons and Susan Walsh Sanderson, "Global Technology Development in Solid State Lighting Technologies," International Journal of High Speed Electronics and Systems, vol. 20 no. 2, June 2011, pp. 359-382. Get Working Paper Get Published Edition

    national medal of technology and innovation National Innovation System of the U.S.

    A country's national innovation system consists of policies, practices, infrastructure, and people who make new technologies and products come into use. Because technological innovation propels corporate success, national economic growth, incomes, and quality of life, it is crucial to have a good understanding of the national innovation system of your country. When I was asked to create an overview of the U.S. national innovation system, for a new encyclopedia of technology and innovation management, I said no way -- the subject was vast, too long a project and too big for a few pages in an encyclopedia to survey in the scope of an encyclopedia. The last serious "academic" survey of the U.S. national innovation system had been by David Mowery and Nathan Rosenberg way back in 1993, and clearly had taken lots of work. Somehow I gave in to the nagging, the editors allowed more pages, and I lined up a good (now former) Ph.D. student as a coauthor, and wrote this more modern (2008 published 2010, update in 2012) overview of the U.S. national innovation system. The paper analyzes what makes the country's innovation system successful; key government policies, their effects, and suggested changes; overviews of corporate, government, and university spending flows; patent policies and trends; and culture, politics, education, and immigration in relation to national innovation.

    2012 full-length version: Kenneth L. Simons and Judith Walls, "U.S.A.'s National Innovation System," forthcoming in a 2nd edition of Encyclopedia of Technology and Innovation, Wiley. Get Working Paper

    2008 version published 2010: Kenneth L. Simons and Judith Walls, "The U.S. National Innovation System," in V.K. Narayanan and Gina Colarelli O'Connor, Encyclopedia of Technology and Innovation, Wiley, 2010, pp. 445-467. Get Working Paper Get Published Paper

    Also related: Kenneth L. Simons, "The U.S. National Innovation System: Potential Insights for Russia" (in Russian, by translation), in I. Danilin and E. Klochikhin (eds.), Innovative Development: International Experience and Russia's Strategy, Moscow: MGIMO-University Press, 2009, pp. 97-119. Get Working Paper Get Published Paper

    Plant TFP falls before, rises after, acquisition Plant Productivity and Ownership Change

    Plant productivity declines on average 1% or more per year before the average plant is acquired by a new owner, but beginning immediately after acquisition, productivity rises even more rapidly. That assessment of total factor productivity stems from a recent, massive study of nearly all Swedish manufacturing plants. The productivity shifts coincide with reductions in output and especially employment. The workforce of the average acquired plant shifts to involve more old-time employees, and the reductions in workforce tend to leave a slightly smaller percentage of women employees, non-native-born employees, and less-educated employees.

    These conclusions provide new evidence on what goes on during the average plant or company acquisition. Detailed breakdowns by types of ownership change, including part- and whole-firm acquisitions and divestitures and related and unrelated diversifications, also provide a focused analysis of how the benefits and processes of ownership change vary according to the circumstances of acquisition. The very recent data from this study provide, apparently, the first plant-level evidence on ownership change and productivity in continental Europe, and one of the first analyses of ownership-change related fluctuations in composition of the workforce.

    Reference: Donald S. Siegel, Kenneth L. Simons, and Tomas Lindstrom, "Ownership Change, Productivity, and Human Capital: New Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data in Swedish Manufacturing," in Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 2009, pp. 397-442. Get Working Paper Get Published Paper

    Also related: Donald S. Siegel and Kenneth L. Simons, "Assessing the Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions on Firm Performance, Plant Productivity, and Workers: New Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 31 no. 8, August 2010, pp. 903-916. Get Working Paper Get Published Edition

    More about employee experiences: John Marsh, Donald S. Siegel, and Kenneth L. Simons, "Assessing the Effects of Ownership Change on Women and Minority Employees: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data," International Journal of the Economics of Business, vol. 14 no. 2, July 2007, pp. 161-178. Get Working Paper Get Published Paper

    Wages steadily zoomed with job tenure.

    Do your earnings rise so quickly?

    Workplace Practices: Incentives, Training, and the Cash Till

    Why do some companies pay employees little at first but give them big salary increases in later years?  Could they afford to keep honest employees for life, and how?  How can they build up employees' skills to turn the good ones into top management?  And if they're bank employees, what keeps them from running off with the cash?

    In this study I've teamed up with my colleague Andy Seltzer, an economic historian, for one of his studies on Australian banking.  Australian banks in the 1800s and early 1900s had to attract the few highly-educated school graduates, and keep them in the bank in the long term.  Steeply graded salary scales and big old-age pensions gave an incentive to stay with the bank.  Not all employees turned out to be geniuses, so while the best went on to top management, the rest became long-term clerks doing routine work in big city offices.  Promising employees were rotated through different jobs, and if they were good enough they wouldn't get stuck forever managing small rural branches.  The frequent job changes not only built experience; they also promoted honesty.  If someone else would inherit the books soon, cheating was hard, particularly with mandatory vacations when employees weren't allowed to step into the office.

    This paper provides a chance to reflect on some fundamental facets of employee policy.  These policies won't all make sense for your modern company, but it's wise to reflect on how workplace policies like these and their alternatives affect a company.

    Reference: Andrew Seltzer and Kenneth L. Simons, "Salaries and Career Opportunities in the Banking Industry: Evidence from the Personnel Records of the Union Bank of Australia," Explorations in Economic History, April 2001, vol. 38 no. 2, pp. 195-224. Get Published Edition

    The Ratchet Effect and Firm Regulation

    Studies of environmental regulation have argued that regulators are better off with more power rather than less, for example by being able to tailor regulatory standards to specific types of firms or even to individual firms.  These views ignore the "ratchet" effect, whereby what the regulator finds out about firms leads it to increase regulation in future, sometimes causing firms not to use the best possible methods for fear of the dreaded ratchet.  This paper by Anthony Heyes and myself proves that ratchet effects can indeed apply to environmental regulation of firms, through a simple model of optimally behaving firms and a regulatory agency that works to optimize social welfare.  The ratchet effect means that the regulator would prefer not to have the ability to tailor standards for some industries, in order to achieve higher social welfare.  This is because "pooling" or "partial separation" equilibria may result in which some firms use inefficient technology in order to avoid heightened regulation.  Whether dread of the ratchet really matters depends on industry and technology characteristics, the relative social costs of pollution and output, and the actual (presumably non-optimal) behavior patterns of firms and regulators.  The paper's contribution is that we need to pay attention to the ratchet, not ignore it, when planning environmental regulation of firms.

    Reference: Anthony G. Heyes and Kenneth L. Simons, "The Strategic Benefits of Uniform Environmental Standards," Strategic Behavior and the Environment, vol. 1 no. 1, January 2011. Get Working Paper

    Economic Growth in Dictatorships

    It is well known that some dictatorships achieve rapid economic growth while others suffer rapid decline. This study is apparently the first attempt to explain this phenomenon in a formal economic framework.  My colleague Michael Spagat and I teamed up to explain both rapid growth and decline in terms of optimal survival strategies for dictators in different circumstances.

    Our model of economic growth involves a tricky dynamic optimization problem.  (Technically, it is not time-separable.)  We solved it computationally, using intensive sensitivity analyses around the range of plausible parameter values.  Our model dictatorships turn out to have bifurcation points, with a spiral of deterioration below the bifurcation and a too-rapid spiral of growth above the bifuraction.  The results fit with the limited available empirical evidence, and provide an explanation for the previously noted but unexplained high variance of growth rates among dictatorships.

    Whether the theory truly explains what's going on we have no way of knowing given existing evidence.  But right or wrong, the methods taken here pioneer an approach useful for future models.

    Reference: Jody Overland, Kenneth L. Simons, and Michael Spagat, "Political Instability and Growth in Dictatorships,"  Public Choice, vol. 125 no. 3-4, December 2005, pp. 445-470. Get Published Edition

    Environmental technology requirements Preventing Environmental Disaster

    There's been a long discussion about the environment and growth -- do we need to slow growth to avoid famines or economic collapse?  Opponents of growth such as the Limits to Growth authors from the 1970s never came to agreement with proponents such as the late Julian Simon.  The lack of serious dialogue on the issue -- and the extent to which economists have let it lapse -- is unfortunate.  It's hard to think of more important issues than the healthy and enjoyable lives of the six billion (and growing) people on our planet.

    My solution to the issue is to focus on environmental technology.  Both opponents and proponents of growth agree that appropriate use of environmental technology is crucial to the continuance of human lives and lifestyles as we know them.  And growth is continuing its way regardless of either camp.  So we need an alternative approach.

    This paper shows such an approach theoretically, then examines how technologies have been changing in practice, and finally computes crude estimates of real-world technology benchmarks.

    I define technology benchmarks: minimum amounts of specific environmental technologies required to allow a continued path of population and economic growth.  In a general model of economic growth and environment, I prove:  1. With no environmental problems, growth could continue indefinitely.  2. With environmental impacts, if we don't know the form of the impacts, economic output might fall below any desired level.  3. Environmental technology can ensure a desired minimum growth path.  Robust minimal technology paths are also defined, so that amounts of technology greater than or equal to the paths yield desired growth.  This accounts for feedback of environmental quality on growth.

    Environmental technology progress is estimated by alternative measures in 1970-2004.  Crop yields typically have improved roughly 1-2% per year.  Pollutant emissions per unit of industry or agriculture typically have fallen 2% to 6% per year.  Metal and mineral extraction worldwide per unit of industry typically has fallen by about 3% per year.

    To illustrate how technology benchmarks can be estimated using global change models developed by teams of scientists, the World3 model is used to estimate specific minimum environmental technology improvements.

    Reference: Kenneth L. Simons, "Technology Benchmarks for Sustained Economic Growth."  Working paper, 2006. Get Working Paper

    Earth Making Global Change Models Accessible

    Models of global change used to run on mainframe computers with thick, unreadable tomes (at best) for documentation.  The situation has been improving, because of software like my Beyond the Limits program.  This program makes the World3 model, developed in the 1970s by a team of scientists at MIT, available in user-friendly form.  The program includes extensive documentation of the model including click-able model diagrams, and it lets you make changes to the model and see the consequences of your changes.

    I didn't develop the model, just this program.  View excerpts from the program or download a version for Macintosh computers.  A PC version is under development.

    See also information about the Earth Systems Project in which the software was developed. The project also includes my program The Gaia Hypothesis and Daisyworld.

    Reference: Kenneth L. Simons, "Beyond the Limits."  Computer software, 1997 (first version 1992).

    More Papers

    For a full list of papers, see my papers and publications page.

    Network of Industrial Economists

    The NIE organizes a range of activities, with typically 2-4 conferences per year: the main annual conference plus themed conferences.  The last conference that I ran, Challenges of Asian Technological Development, took place at the LSE on 31 May 2003.  For information on the Network's email list and on past conferences, see the NIE web site.  I was Chairman of the NIE in 2001-2003.

    Revised 15 January 2014

    Visits to this page since 16 June 2001:


text:
15 Year Sentence for James Booker’s Death

Anthony Williams was sentenced to 15 years in prison Friday for second-degree murder while armed in connection with the shooting death of 24-year-old James Edward Booker.

Williams, who pleaded guilty to the charge in October, turned 18 last week.

He’s an adult now,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Kendra Briggs told the court. “He’ll have to face his decision to take Mr. Booker’s life on November 5, 2013 … as an adult.”

Video footage of the murder showed Booker walking alone on 6th Street Southeast, according to the proffer of facts. Holding a gun in his right hand, Williams got in front of Booker and blocked his path. Williams shot Booker multiple times while he tried to run away.

Addressing the court in a victim impact statement, Kelly Booker talked about how her son had turned his life around. At 24, he had a newborn baby girl and plans to return back to school.

I just want to know why,” she asked Williams, weeping. “What happened, you know? The truth, because I wasn’t there.”

Williams addressed the court: “I apologize to the family, and I take responsibility for my actions.”

Interrupting, Kelly Booker told those in court, “I wanna forgive him.”

Turning to Williams, Booker told him, “I do forgive you for killing my child.”

Defense attorney Anthony Matthews argued that Williams understood the gravity of his actions, demonstrated by his acceptance of the plea agreement.

This young man is going to be locked up for nearly as long as he’s been on the earth,” Matthews said. “That’s a powerful message.”

After the sentencing concluded, Booker wept as she told AUSA Briggs, “I had to forgive him.”

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Friday, May 14, 2010

Carole, Keep Channeling!

Hey Carole,

Keep coming at me .... we still have work to do.

“It was a dream,” Carolee emphasized. “But the dream was important. Because in another lifetime our sisterhood was cut short. And now we are sisters again. And there is something we must do. Something wasn’t finished, remains incomplete.”

Carolee related that dream years ago, and I remember it as if yesterday when the air between us vibrated with life. I cannot remember when she first mentioned the dream, only that it emerged into our world with the same certainty as the years we shared. Although I could not recall our dying together, I never doubted the experience, simply accepting that Carolee had retained our past. We both knew, too, that Carolee’s vision wasn’t a dream. She was the keeper of our history, a past that would again become our future. We will be sisters forever, and in the intermittent space between us, I now carry our story forward.
more later.

Love, Hope


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Tuesday, 17 July 2012

The Stuttgart weekend was a fine one.

Leigh flew out to make the duo three, meeting us at the An Sibin Irish pub (run by a Greek, Thanassi, and his lovely, local lady, Claudi), the scene of our first Germany gig in September last year. The welcome from our hosts was heart-warming (Claudi had gone to the trouble of cooking a fabulous chicken curry for us and she and Thanassi gave us beds to use for the compulsory pre-gig afternoon snooze) and the evening was as lively and successful as last year's had been.

This is far from being a 'concert' gig. There were few of the quieter songs in the set as the situation demands full-on, attention-grabbing material to compete with the friendly hubbub of the bar*. (Though we did give Two Virgins its début run-out to knock off its edges in preparation for the festival gig the following day.) We managed to keep the drinkers in the situ, though. We finished, as last year, with an informal sing-song sitting at the bar. Drinks were liberally supplied and it was only the thought of a four-o-clock afternoon gig the following day that stopped the carousing at 2.00 am. I'm a lightweight - as Leigh likes to remind me.

*(Friends Suzi and Bernhardt, who'd seen us in the Lauffen concert in 2011, were unprepared for the robust nature of the bar gig, expecting the polite attention they'd experienced there. I tried to explain that this was a different contract and required a different performance. I'm not sure they preferred it, though. It was cheering that they made the effort, though. It just goes to show that it's different strokes for different folks.)

Bar regulars who had seen us play last year were there. Two, who I wish I could name-check but can't due to my inability to remember a name for more than three minutes 35 seconds, were very charming with the explanation of their disappointment at our not having played And I Have from The Beautiful and Cruel that they bought at our gig in 2011. We played an acoustic impromptu version of it for them with Leigh on shaky egg and me on guitar and shaky lyrics.

I took the collection hat around after set two of three and the audience were generous. They didn't have much option, though, with a sweaty singer in their face mumbling about children's medical bills and refusing to walk away. And we made good CD sales, too. Very often the merchandising is the difference between profit and loss on a tour, so this was good. The CD box was getting sparse. Perhaps I'd underestimated the demand?

The next day we left Claudi and Thanassi after a fine breakfast (and with Claudi chauffeuring Leigh since we didn't have room for him in the tour car) for the festival gig in Lauffen. Our sound-check, I understood, was at 2.30 and our on-stage time 4.30. I was wondering how I'd fare given the late night we'd had and the prospect of no afternoon-snooze time. In the event, I had the times wrong. We weren't due to sound check until 4.15 and weren't playing until 6.15. So off to snooze.

LAUFFEN: Phoenix Festival

The atmosphere at the festival was great Situated on a rocky promontory over the river Neckar (the Neckartal is a major wine-growing area and produces great wines that we never see here because they drink them themselves!), the site has real charisma. The big question of the moment was whether the forecasted storms would arrive. Whatever spirit that presides over that place must like folk music. It poured everywhere in Germany that day, but the weather stayed elsewhere. By the time we went on at 6.15, the sun was out and the 550 ticket-holders were in place for what I think I can claim was a fine set. We enjoyed it anyway. Klaus Ruesenberg, who runs the Phoenix Pub we played in last year and who is co-organiser of the festival along with Paddy Bort, congratulated us for a 'perfect' opening set. (Paddy - more properly, Eberhart, is a local chap who now lives in Edinburgh and runs the Wee Folk Club there - he was our route to Lauffen - he booked us at the Wee then at the Phoenix.)

Hanging out with the other musos and seeing the different ways they handle being in a social situation with others like them is interesting. Some like it, some seem not to. Every man to his (or her) own.

Didn't sell many CDs. Funny, that. But the audience didn't appear so ready to buy as in the pubs, clubs and smaller concerts.

We enjoyed the rest of the acts and savoured some fine whisky from the specialist bar. I've never seen so many single malts in one place.

Well done Klaus, well done Paddy and well done everyone else who contributed.

WINNENDEN-BIRKMANNSWEILER: House Concert - hosted by Norma Huss

I woke early the following morning suddenly aware that I hadn't arranged for Leigh to get to our next venue. (Car full of gear, two passengers already...) I lay there considering the options. A cab? Expensive. Public transport? Not sure of the practicalities - and it was Sunday. Then the thought occurred: if I drove to Norma's immediately and dropped off the equipment, I could get back in time for breakfast and to collect Andee and Leigh. The only possible problem was whether Norma would be awake at 8.30 on a Sunday morning.
She was, just. And two hours after leaving the hotel I was back in Lauffen having breakfast with A&L.

Norma was the angel who booked us the gig in Backnang last year the day before our concert in Lauffen. Her reward for this kindness was to have us descend on her to play a concert in her living-room to an audience of her chums. She's a muso herself and set the room up brilliantly. We made our stage in the corner, had the prerequisite snooze and bang on 4.00 (they're punctual in Baden-Württemberg) we played set one to a full room.

Lovely people listened intelligently to sometimes demanding material. We discussed the songs: Rope Ladder; Chocolate; Joke; Jeffrey and Robert and I; the tour song No Going Back...

What is it about audiences that listen to this lyric-heavy stuff delivered in a foreign language seemingly more intently and attentively than audiences at home? I thought I found this in Sweden, too, but wondered if I imagined it. But it often seemed to be the case in Germany, as well. Are we less interested in the 'story' here than listeners in other parts of Europe? Andee suggested that in England (not Scotland, though) concert-goers pay more attention to the music, rhythm, harmony, etc, but that in other places we've played in Europe, they are keen to absorb the 'tale', the lyrical content,  the narrative. If it's so, it's grist to my mill.

The whole house-concert was a lovely experience and a success on all the levels I'd hope for it. (Yes, the audience dug deep when the hat (well, basket this time) was passed around and by the end of the evening, we'd sold out of three of the seven CDs I've made. Just as well it was the last concert.

A post-gig relaxed musical free-for-all ensued and went into the late evening with Andee and Norma joining me in taking the lead with an array of material covering pop, blues, rockabilly and conventional folk.

A lovely afternoon with lovely people hosted by a special lady. Only a few can run a successful house concert which depends entirely on the persona of the central figure. Well done Norma and thanks for your hospitality.

The next day saw Leigh on the train to Stuttgart airport and Andee and I driving eight hours back to Calais and our ferry. We cut it fine, falling into the we-have-loads-of-time-and-don't-need-to-rush trap. This was probably at least partly because the tour was over and we had relaxed.

We made it though, arriving home tired. But pleased. The trip had paid for itself with a little over that might contribute to the next recording. We've been playing a number of unrecorded songs on the trip and people have been asking for the CD that contains them. They've asked for songs such as Rope Ladder, No Going Back, Chocolate and In Bruges. It's always rewarding when people name-check a particular song, so it's time for another visit to the studio.

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The Insurance Company with Horse Sense

Mary Phelps
A Markel Equine Insurance Specialist

Markel Monday - Protecting Your Farm Personal Property: A Crisis Averted

Markel Insurance Co.

The loss of farm personal property due to disaster or theft can result in significant replacement and lost opportunity costs. Farm personal property typically includes items such as tack, barn supplies, farm machinery as well as the farm office equipment like computers, phones, furniture, and a variety of other tangible assets that are a part of your agricultural business. Loss control strategies are as numerous as the potential events that can cause the loss. Following are some key guidelines to consider: Keep a current inventory of your farm personal property. Maintain receipts, serial numbers, and manufacturer’s information for easy identification in the event an item becomes damaged or stolen. Consider taking pictures or a video of your tack room or equipment inventory and store in a secure, off-site location. If you need to file a claim, this will facilitate the process and aid in the recovery of stolen items.

*Protect your electronic equipment. All electrical equipment, including data line connections, should be plugged into surge protectors. Without them, power surges can damage equipment and create unwanted downtime. It is important to install surge protectors properly. Keep cable lengths short and straight, and push plugs completely into sockets. Some surge protectors have indicators to show the circuit is grounded and operating properly. Consult with a licensed electrician to ensure that your electrical distribution system is grounded correctly. Place computers, telephone switchboards, and other sensitive electronics above ground level, and utilize dust covers for protection, especially in stables and other AG buildings. If you own a laptop, invest in computer tracking technology to assist in recovery, should it be stolen. A loss of this equipment can quickly create a crisis.

*Maintain your facility’s equipment. Inspect equipment frequently and follow maintenance practices according to manufacturer’s guidelines. Keeping a maintenance log will help ensure the safety and longevity of your equipment. Daily, weekly and monthly activities in the log help to ensure processes are not overlooked; as with most farm operations can vary from grease and oil for the tractor and checking tire pressure to cleaning and inspection of tack.

*Safeguard vital records. Properly preserving your records makes it easier to get you up and running after an emergency. Vital records may include financial and insurance information, employee files, registration papers and vet records and horse owners/boarders contact information.

*Store records in a secured location. Vital records should be kept in a secured, fire-rated file cabinet or safe. Store critical electronic files and equipment in areas where they can be quickly evacuated, along with staff in the event of an emergency. You can easily save critical information on a compact disc or external storage device for easy retrieval. Also, ship your data to off-site locations or storage facilities located away from coastal areas and flood plains. With technology today, you can now store vital records off-site with a data warehouse or other electronic media formats.

Establish and practice a crisis management plan. Assign specific responsibilities to staff members so there is no confusion about who should evacuate employees, animals, records, and crucial farm equipment. Well posted and reviewed plans can greatly reduce the severity of a loss. Having a backup plan is an essential part of the crisis plan, especially when critical personnel are out at the time of a catastrophe. Know ahead of time what you need to take with you in an emergency. Identify alternate power sources and evaluate temporary facilities, transportation options and emergency supply vendors for feed & medications.

According to the Insurance Institute of America, the following information is most often included in a crisis management procedures plan:

1. The purpose, scope, and organization of the plan.
2. The structure of the crisis management hierarchy, including the chain of command, composition, and general responsibilities of the emergency teams appointed.
3. Evacuation instructions, including explanations of alarm signals and diagrams of exit routes. Alternative facilities/pastures for livestock or equipment.
4. Loss prevention and loss reduction procedures organized by peril (natural, human, or economic) and separated into pre- and post-event measures.
5. Procedures, addresses, and telephone numbers for contacting the fire department, police, medical services, Vets/Farriers, transportation, pollution-control personnel, and other sources of help.
6. Communication procedures during and after the emergency, especially procedures for employees and clients, including; owners, boarders, students and vendors.

For the personal attention you deserve contact Mary Phelps, a Markel Equine Insurance Specialist
cell/text 859-940-8517
We are available on the scene, on the road, on the net, and in the office to answer your questions, help you with your applications, and be your direct connection to our Markel Underwriters. We work hard at this process so you don't have to. The application process does not have to be a daunting task. We are here to make it easy, so you can spend time with your horses and clients.


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Tuesday, 26 May 2009

What is it with....?

Tote bags??.... Don't get me wrong i like them, and have even looked into getting HOST Gallery bags, I am even a proud owner of a NYPH bag (that I got free...)..
Anyway just saw this on the Jen Bekman mailout, and apparently it's a Give Away (If you spend $200)...
Please let me know if you would like a HOST/Foto8 Gallery Bag (for Free/And/Or $200)....
Anyway talking of Jen Bekman, I really wish I could see her show of Christian Chaize's work Praia Piquinia on until the 11th July

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Chris Brown may have confirmed what most people have knew already— he likes to creep. In the video above, the R&B singer - perhaps jokingly- revealed that he’s the stalker type when it comes to relationships.

“Ladies, y’all be complaining about n----s being like stalkers and in love with y’all, kinda crazy and s--- and you get tired of ‘em, Well guess what? I’m one of ‘em n----s!" he says. "If I love you, b----, ain’t nobody gon’ have you. I’m gon’ make you miserable. I’m going to chase that n---- out, and I’m gonna chase you around, and it’s done!"

This easily explains why Brown went after Soulja Boy when he liked an Instagram photo of Karrueche Tran, Brown’s ex-girlfriend. This sparked a feud between the two artists and now a boxing match has been setup for March.

We don't know if he was joking or not, but his track record when it comes to relationships haven't been so stellar (*cough* Rihanna). We are just saying.

What do you think? Is Chris Brown a proud member of the creep squad? Tell us in the comments below.