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Tag Archives: Route 6

NaNo 17, Day 20 & 21: SNORLAX!

(Technically, I wrote a fair chunk of this yesterday, but not much original stuff, and my head was hurting too badly for more than transcribing from the game.)

After Cassius left to go back to work, Evangeline gathered her team and went poking her nose around town. There wasn’t anything else particularly exciting, aside from the large castle on the north edge of town, Shabboneau Castle. Large and made of solid stone, it had a blue slate roof and even a draw bridge entrance, which shouldn’t have been as impressive as it was. According to signage, it was open for visitors too, which was nice. She wondered if this is what Professor Sycamore was talking about checking out…

Inside, though, was someone familiar. Shauna turned and waved her over with a beam. “Hi Evangeline!”

“An acquaintance of yours?” the man next to her asked dubiously, shaking his head as Evangeline approached. “Two visitors to Shabboneau Castle? I can’t remember the last time we’ve been so busy!”

“Hopefully we aren’t imposing,” Evangeline said softly with a polite bow of her head.

He shook his head. “Let’s see if I still remember the spiel… This castle, chateau if you will, was a manor house of a noble family. It may be a little run down, but that’s because there’s history to this place. During that history, the owners of this castle gave away a lot of their stuff to everyone, so that’s why it feels so empty. The end.”

“That’s it?” Shauna complained, tucking her arms behind her head in annoyance. “Don’t you have anything related to Mega Evolution?”

Seeming to think about it carefully, the gentleman nodded. “That’s it.” He frowned at them both in confusion. “What in the world is Mega Evolution?”

Before Shauna could stammer out an answer (and Evangeline shush her since she wasn’t one-hundred-percent certain the professor wanted them talking about it to everyone), one of the townsfolk came running in. “Sir!” he called out. “It’s back again!”

“Is is that time of year already?” The look of exhausted exasperation settled into well worn lines on this poor man’s face. “Well, there’s nothing I can do about that now…” He looked to her and Shauna apologetically. “I need to go to Route 7, but please take your time and have a look around.” With a nod of his head, he excused himself to follow the boy out the door.

“I wonder what that’s about,” Shauna said, tilting her head. She then turned to give Evangeline a grin. “Why don’t we go to Route 7 too?”

Shaking her head at her enthusiasm, Evangeline looked around the entrance foyer. Marble floors, blank stone walls… “Let’s browse around here first, in case there’s a clue he doesn’t know is a clue, but then I guess we might as well,” she compromised.

Together, they wandered the halls publicly available. The owner was right, the castle was very empty. If anything of use had ever been there, it was long gone. Evangeline couldn’t help but feel a little sad for him. She knew how expensive huge buildings like this could be to upkeep. She couldn’t imagine how worse it would be if they weren’t re-purposing the chateau as a gym or something similar.

In the end, Evangeline had no reason not to listen to Shauna. She let herself be dragged down Route 7, Riviere Walk, reluctantly. Really, was this any of their business? It had to be embarrassing…

A loud, rumbling sound echoed down the road.

Covering her ears, Shauna glared up ahead. “Evangeline! What is it?”

“I don’t believe it…” Evangeline said in disbelief, picking up her feet to confirm what she thought was happening.

Sure enough, a familiar sight greeted her. The owner and boy from town were gathered around the entrance to a wide walking-path bridge. Unfortunately, a huge amount of teal and cream Pokemon blocked the way, snoring loudly.

“A Snorlax?” she said in disbelief, alerting both men that she was there, but for the most part, they ignored her to talk to each other.

“Here we go again,” the owner said, pinching the bridge of his nose as if fighting off a headache. Considering how loud the Snorlax was, he might be. “It’s sleeping so soundly, the end of the world wouldn’t wake it.”

“Look! It’s practically a mountain, right? It’s blocking the road completely.” The boy shook his head, staring at the Pokemon that was almost hanging over the edges of the bridge. “Of all the places for it to take a nap.” Turning to the owner, he said with a sigh. “Come now, sir. Use the Poke Flute.” Except his eyes grew wide as he straightened up. “Oh wait… Do you even have it anymore?”

The owner snorted. “Nope, I handed it over.”

“Or you could say it was taken…” the boy said bitterly. “By the owner of the palace.”

Shauna caught up just in time to hear the end of the conversation. “What? Huh? What’s a Poke Flute?” she asked, breathless, as she tried to get caught up.

“Basically, the Poke Flute is what we need to wake up Snorlax.” The owner of the castle waved his hand. “But the Poke Flute is currently at Parfum Palace.”

“Oh, that’s it?” Shauna huffed and waved her hand as if to dismiss their worries. “All we need to do is to go get it then!”

“I don’t think it’s that simple,” Evangeline muttered, moving to where she could look at Snorlax. Maybe there was a way to get him moved without waking him…

Shauna didn’t give her a chance. Grabbing her by the wrist, the petite brunette dragged the violette behind her. “Come on, Evangeline, let’s go! The Parfum Palace is just past Route 6. And maybe at a place like that, we might learn something about Mega Evolution!”

“You hope!” Evangeline protested, getting her feet underneath her before Shauna was literally dragging her. Sure enough, there was a Y in the road back that they had passed, and Shauna let go as they started walking north.

Route 6, Palais Lane, was literally a path lined with trees and bushes…and Trainers stopping to see the sights. It kept both Evangeline and Shauna busy, since it wouldn’t do much good to point out to them that Route 7 was blocked. Most were tourists or backpackers, so she doubted it was going to inconvenience them by more than a day or two anyway. Annoying, but nothing to raise a fuss over.

The Parfum Palace itself walked the fine line between majestic…and gaudy trash. Evangeline bit the inside of her lip to keep from saying that though as she looked at elegant gardens and paths. Golden gates blocked the way inside, but even from here Evangeline could see that it was made of similar materials as Shabboneau Castle, only with the building laid out in a different shape with architectural features from a more recent point in history.

A man who wore a three piece suit like a uniform, tails and all, stood next to the gate. When Shauna and Evangeline approached, he cleared his throat and held out his hand, the image of a butler.  “The entrance fee will be 7.50* euro per person.”

Shauna sputtered indignantly. “You’ve got to be kidding! It costs money to go inside?”

The butler cleared his throat awkwardly. “You see, the owner of the palace follows the school of thought that you can never have too much money.”

Evangeline grimaced at the very idea.

“Yeesh! This is how the rich get richer!” Shaking her head in disgust, Shauna reached into her bag and counted out the appropriate coins. “Here’s your entrance fee.”

“The proceeds from the entrance fee help pay for repairing and restoring the palace…” he offered apologetically, and then cleared his throat awkwardly. “Probably…”

Shaking her head, Evangeline also pulled out her entrance fee to pay her way forward. He bowed over the received coins, and flipped the switches to open the gates. The front entry way had been entirely paved over in stone, making Evangeline tilt her head. She knew historically, there should be more gardens here. She wondered why he had paved the whole thing over…

Inside, she stumbled to a halt as she took in decor. Gaudy gold and red, with absolutely no taste level at all, that didn’t mesh with the palace at all. This was the guy who believed you could never have enough money? Ugh.

Speaking of… There was a slightly overweight man in clothes that, while possibly brand name, certainly hadn’t been tailored to him, pacing frantically across the front room. “Where is it?” he cried anxiously. “Where could it be?”

“Where is what?” Evangeline asked, stepping forward to see if what the problem was.

“My Furfrou!” he wailed, dramatic tears falling. Just so he could dig a silk handkerchief, of all things, out to dab at the corner of his eyes. “My beloved little Furfrou has disappeared!” He swept off into the main hallways, still crying piteously.

Shauna took a few steps after him, missing how Evangeline wrinkled a nose over his theatrics. “It disappeared? Hey, Evangeline, we should help look.” Turning around, she shrugged a little. “I mean, if my… If my Pokemon was missing, I’d be sick with worry!”

This was going to be like keeping a Meowth from getting distracted by shiny coins, wasn’t it? “Alright, let’s see if we can find it while we look around for info on the Poke Flute or Mega Evolution,” she suggested, seeing no reason not to double task.

They split up to go down separate hallways. Evangeline actually stumbled into the kitchen, where preparations were going on for a late dinner. The head chef in particular was violently chopping aromatics to put into a pot. “Just because the parents were great, it surely does not mean their children will also be great,” he growled. “In fact, the opposite is often true!”

“Awww, come on, don’t drag the boss’s parents into it,” one of the sous chefs teased as he checked something roasting in the ovens–it smelled like chicken.

For her part, Evangeline quickly ducked out, leaning against the door and slouching. No, great parents didn’t mean anything. All it did was give people ammunition to use against you. If you weren’t as strong or as clever as them, then you were a disappointment. If you were, well, what did anyone expect? She shook her head, refusing to linger on old hurts.

The rest of the palace, while still gaudy, didn’t turn up anything, aside from an impressive hall of mirrors that had a line of doors leading out to the balcony. She wondered how many people ran straight into them without realizing they were there. Going back downstairs, she met back up with Shauna at the back doors. A stone bridge gave a dramatic entrance to a series of hedge mazes, with statues of legendary or near legendary Pokemon and Pokeballs scattered through out them.

Shauna scanned the mazes, then turned back to Evangeline with a firm nod. “I’ll have a look in back!”

And avoid getting lost in the mazes. Evangeline nodded in agreement, trying not to show her amusement. It really was for the better. Looking for a missing Furfrou was hard enough without having to look for a lost Shauna too. She wondered the mazes on her own, finding items other people had dropped, but no Pokemon.

At least, until she got towards the northwest corner. A Furfrou, fur cut into a sun-hat type shape with sections dyed pale yellow, flew past her on speeding paws, yipping the whole way, “No, no, no!”

On it’s tail was an exhausted Shauna. “Please don’t run away!” she shouted, coming to a stop and resting her hands on her knees as she panted for breath. “Evangeline, give me a hand!”

“Sure thing,” she said, reaching for the Pokeball she wanted. “Antoine, come on out!”

Her own Furfrou came out with a shake of his fur. “What do you need?” he asked, crouching down as if to pounce.

“Help tracking down your fellow Furfrou,” she said. “It’s around here somewhere, and seems a bit distressed.”

“I’m afraid of asking…” he growled, but sniffed around, catching a scent and leading the way.

“Wow, good thinking! I didn’t know you had a Furfrou too,” Shauna said.

Evangeline shrugged. “I didn’t think bringing him out would help until we had the area narrowed down. The other one’s scent is probably all over the place, so he’d need a really fresh trail to track.”

Shauna nodded, putting her hands behind her head again. “You know, we should try and corner it, at least until we can talk it down.”

“That’s a good idea,” Evangeline agreed, glancing around. They were at a three way crossing. “Here, you stay here in case it doubles back, Antoine and I will try to get around it and push it into a corner.”

What followed was pure chaos. The Furfrou was fast, and wasn’t listening to anything anyone said. It took ages for Evangeline to find an appropriate dead end, and then to get Shauna and Antoine stationed to actually corner it into it.

It whined, lowering to lie its head on its paws. “I hate this cut, I hate it, I hate it, I hate it.”

“Awww, it’s a pretty haircut, though,” Evangeline tried to coax it into feeling better.

“I look like a girl!” it…or rather, he…said, covering his eyes with his paws.

“The things humans do to us…” Antoine grumbled.

“Oh hush, you’ll have a say before I go clipping and dying your fur, and it makes you faster,” she reminded him, ruffling the thick bangs on his head.

“Phew, well done!” Shauna said as she approached. “We finally caught it! Evangeline, you’re amazing. We caught it because you understand how Pokemon feel.”

“And a whole lot of luck,” Evangeline muttered, but it turned into a yelp when she was shoved to the side by the middle-aged man.

“Oh! My dear Furfrou! My beloved FurFrou!” He ran over to the Pokemon, fussing over it as much as he could without getting in the dirt. At last, he focused on the two girls he had shoved into the hedges. “Could you be the two responsible for my wonderfou reunion with my dear Furfrou? How wonderfou indeed! It’s marvelous, simply marvelous! A situation like this demands fireworks!”

“Fireworks?” Evangeline repeated.

“We shall put on a show–boom, boom! My Pokemon and I are reunited, our bond has been proven.” He nodded as if it was a great trauma they had gone through rather than his Pokemon fleeing to the gardens over a bad hair cut. We’ll commemorate this joyous occasion with a tremendous fireworks display!” He paused and looked over the two girls. “And it will also serve as a reward for the tiny bit of trouble you went to.”

“Tiny bit!” Shauna repeated, indignant. “We chased him all over the gardens!”

The man ignored her. “Rendezvous at the balcony.” He looked at Evangeline, and leaned forward to speak in over-exaggerated syllables. “Do you understand? Ren-dez-vous.”

Her spine straightened, realizing what was happening. She didn’t have traditional Kalos features. Purple hair and teal eyes aside, her bone structure and height gave her away as being of Kanto and Johto descent. She narrowed her eyes at him, refusing to dignify his passive racism with any more of a response.

If he noticed he’d offended her, he blew right past it, literally, shooing his Furfrou ahead of him as he went to go back towards the house. “You can reach the balcony from the hall of mirrors on the second floor,” he called over his shoulder.

“Maybe Fufrou would have been better off if we hadn’t found him…” Shauna muttered, and Evangeline snorted in agreement. It seemed to encourage Shauna to rant. “If I were a Pokemon, I would hate to have a Trainer like that!” She sighed. “But I really like fireworks, so let’s make the best of it.”

“Sure,” Evangeline agreed reluctantly, leading the way back out of the maze. Unlike her, Shauna hadn’t gone up to the second floor, so she also had to lead the way up to the balcony he mentioned. Once there, the maze stretched out before them, a picture of perfection. Evangeline had to give his gardeners credit.

“Um…” Shauna interrupted the silence awkwardly. “You know… I really hope we get to be great friends, Evangeline… We haven’t even seen them yet, but I know I’ll never forget these fireworks! ‘Cause I watched them with you.”

“That’s really sweet, Shauna,” she said with a sigh, feeling a little lighter. While she may be new to this friendship thing, it was sweet of the other girl to try and take her mind off of what happened in the garden.

Any further conversation was cut off by the firework display. Gold, red, and blue, they lit up the sky like flowers of light that faded into starlight.

“Wow! That. Was. AMAZING!” Shauna said as they tapered off, bouncing in place. “I never ever want to forget this, so I’ll keep this memory in an album in my heart!”

“You’re a bit of a romantic, aren’t you?” Evangeline mused, but she cut herself off from saying anything else as the owner of the palace and his Furfrou joined them, the butler trailing along behind them.

“And that was my wonderfrou fireworks show for my Furfrou! I assume you’re satisfied with that,” he said with a dismissive way of his hand.

Shauna opened her mouth to agree, but Evangeline gave her a nudge with her elbow. “Ow!” she yelped. “What…? Oh! I almost forgot!”

“The Poke Flute!” Evangeline hissed back at her, just in case she got side-tracked again.

“That’s right, we need the flute to wake up Snorlax!” she told them earnestly.

The man sighed, rolling his eyes upward. “The Poke Flute, huh?” He snapped his fingers with command. “Go get it.” The butler bowed and took his leave with long strides. While he was away, the owner of the palace explained haughtily, “It was the Shabboneau Castle’s treasure, but I took it as payment for a loan. A rich guy like me and a common person like that just didn’t go together.” The butler returned promptly, and he gestured impatiently. “Well? Give it to them.”

The butler stepped forward and bowed a little as he held up a wooden case. “Here is the Poke Flute.” Bowing back, Evangeline took the case and tucked it away so it would be safe.

“Listen you two!” the palace owner barked, obviously not done yet. “Always return what you borrow. That’s very important.” Nodding firmly, he took his exit with a flick of his wrist to dismiss them. Sighing, the Furfrou sat at the feet of the butler rather than following.

Shauna muttered to his retreating back, “I want to make lots of memories on my journey. But I think I’ll try and forget about him…”

Clearing his throat, the butler said, “You can’t imagine how stressful running this place is for him.”

Evangeline snorted, still stinging from his treatment in the garden. Nodding to show she agreed with the contempt her friend showed, Shauna said, “That may be so, but… Oh that’s right!” Snapping her fingers, she leaned forward to whisper conspiratorially, “Mr. Butler, do you know anything about Mega Evolution?”

Rubbing his chin, the butler thought for a second and then began to slowly speak, as if drawing the specifics from a mental catalog, “I remember reading a book on that subject in the palace library. It had something to do with what you’d now call a Trainer holding a mysterious stone high and making Pokemon evolve even further.”

“Well, that’s more than what we had,” Evangeline said. “Thank you.”

He nodded to them both. “If you shall excuse me, I will take my leave.” With a brief bow, he took his exit.

Shauna shook her head in wonder. “The owner of Shabboneau Castle used to be friends with that guy who took his family’s flute! Can you believe it? Isn’t that crazy?”

“I think that man would take his grandmother’s fillings if it got him a little more gold,” Evangeline said dryly.

Giggling, Shauna skipped her way to the doors.”We have to be sure to give that flute back after we wake up Snorlax,” she said with authority.

“Why do you think I took it?” Evangeline teased, only to squeal and take off at a run as Shauna chased after her in mock-anger.

Both girls stuck together as they traversed back to Route 6 in the dark, using flashlights to lead the way. That didn’t stop them from stirring up wild Pokemon, in Evangeline’s case a sword-like Pokemon called a Honedge that she dubbed Kagura.

Kagura (Honedge)

At last, they returned to the bridge, where both the owner of Shabboneau Castle and the townsman were waiting still by the snoring Snorlax. “Oh, it’s you two,” the castle keeper said. “Did you actually manage to borrow the Poke Flute?”

“Right here,” Evangeline said, pulling the case out of her bag.

“Thanks!” he said, sounding like he was truly grateful

Shauna grinned at him. “Well, you’re the only one who can play it, right?”

He smiled back at her and nodded, then looked to Evangeline since she was closer to the bridge. “Snorlax can be grumpy when it wakes up–it might attack! I’ll play the flute right now, but are you ready to stop it?”

“As ready as I can be,” Evangeline agreed, reaching for a Pokeball.

Nodding at her, he sighed as he opened the case, pulling out the relic. “Feels nice to have this flute in my hands again,” he mused under his breath. “Okay, I guess I’ll start playing.”

The melody was almost too soothing to wake someone up, especially since the Snorlax had been snoozing through all their conversations. But it appeared to be enough. The giant Pokemon stirred with an irritable yawn, and scowled at the gathering of humans. Evangeline quickly stepped forward so it would focus on her, letting out Henri. The bird was too fast for the slow but powerful Pokemon, and burned Snorlax on contact.

It got to a point when the Snorlax was close to being defeated, and Evangeline made a snap decision. If this was a yearly problem, the best way to stop it would be to remove Snorlax from the equation. She had one Ultra Ball on her, which should be enough for the Pokemon’s immense size and strength.

It was enough. She breathed a sigh of relief and recalled Henri before transferring the ball to her computer until later.

“Awesome!” Shauna cheered with a cheerleader-like wave. “You caught Snorlax! That’ll keep you from having trouble again!”

Before anyone else could comment, a Furfrou barked, running down the road. “Oh…” Shauna breathed, dismayed.

Sure enough, the palace owner was on his Pokemon’s heels. Perhaps sensing the unease there, Shabboneau Castle’s owner also stepped forward to meet his contemporary.

Crossing his arms behind his back, the Fufrou obssessed man said, “The only thing I can do with that Poke Flute is put it on display. But you’ve been playing since you were little, and the tone is lovely. It seems like my Furfrou likes the sound of that flute. Not as much as it likes my beautiful, wonderfrou fireworks, of course.”

If his experience gave the player a clue, it didn’t show on his baffled expression. “Uh… Yeah… I guess so…”

“Still, you’re playing sounded better back in the day.” The palace man waved a hand dismissively, but there was a faint smile on his face. “I’ll let you take care of that flute, so be sure to practice more.”

He left just as dramatically as he always did, Pokemon and butler trailing behind him.

“Well what do you know…” the two from Camphrier Town said at the same time, then exchanged looks and laughter. They walked off in the direction of town, clapping each other on the back.

Shauna stared after them. “Was THAT supposed to be an attempt to patch things up? Well, whatever!” Crossing her arms, she winked at Evangeline to cover up her confusion over the end result. “All’s well that ends well. I wonder what lies past where Snorlax was sleeping…”

“We’ll have to find out tomorrow,” Evangeline said with a frown. “It’s late, and I don’t know about you, but I’d rather back track to town and sleep at the Center than camp out here, since it’s so close.”

“Good idea,” Shauna agreed, and together they walked back towards town to continue their adventure in the morning.


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Triple Threat Flag

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Reclaiming the Sierra

Statewide fish consumption advisory issued for CA lakes and reservoirs

August 5, 2013

The Sierra Fund is pleased to announce that last week, California’s Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) finally released “safe eating guidelines” for fish from all of California’s lakes and reservoirs that do not already have site-specific guidelines pertaining to them. This is great news because it means that a long-standing information gap has […]


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Revisions to the University of Michigan Board of Regents’ Bylaws, and UM-Dearborn Campus Bylaws have been proposed and are posted for public comment before coming before the regents for approval July 15.

The School of Social Work executive committee adds one clinical faculty member, bringing the total membership from six to seven. It also adjusts expiration dates for members to improve committee continuity.

The UM-Dearborn’s bylaws amendments incorporate the following: defining the charge of the Faculty Senate Promotion and Tenure Committee; changing pronouns to be gender-inclusive; consistently defining the governing faculty; and correcting spelling inconsistencies.

Please address any comments to by July 7.


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Does Your Kid Talk This Much?

Get A kids perspective on Movies, News, Food and Current Events.

Kid along with Adult Co-host.

Ep 12 Mooyah Burgers, Arabic word of the week, & Luca
Show Details33min 11s
Ep. 11 Summer Picnic, Hottest Pepper, Arabic Word, Disney Cruella Movie Review.
Show Details29min 48s
EP. 10 End Of School, Costco Samples, Arabic Word, Classic Movie Review AVATAR 2009.
Show Details39min 1s
Ep 7. DYKTTM Crapes, Arabic word of the Day & Marvel Movie review Black Panther
Show Details36min 31s
Ep 6 DYKTTM Safety TALK, Shout outs, ARABIC PHRASE Parent TRAP Classic movie
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Ep 5 DYKTTM The Mitchells VS the Machines & OSHA 30 Fail.
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Ep 4 DYKTTM podcast Raya Last Dragon
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Ep 3 DYKTTM Allergies...!
Show Details20min 19s
Ep. 2 Does Your Kid Talk this Much?
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Ep 01. First Episode (Avocado, Arabic word of the Day, Movie Review)
Show Details40min 27s


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Project Management

Through the Project Management process, we aim to act as an extension of you – making the informed decisions that you would make if you were able to be on the job site every day.

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The Primary role of a Project Manager is to Plan, organise and oversee all details concerned with planning a project and seeing it through to completion.

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Beginner's Guide to Data Corruption and How to Avoid It

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Her Sweet Surrender now released!

Official Her Sweet Surrender

Cover of Her Sweet Surrender

Her Sweet Surrender now released! It’s finally here, the most anticipated book in the Brie Series! You think you are ready, but I can guarantee you aren’t. You’re going to need a towel and three boxes of tissues after you’re done with this book!

Make sure you give yourself the whole day to read Her Sweet Surrender, because once you start, you won’t be able to stop! And if you’re anything like me, you’re going to need a place to talk about what happened! Then head over to my Facebook page Red’s Spoiler Room to hang out and discuss the book!

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Looking to get started reading Brie? Then check out the official reading order here: Official Brie’s Submission Reading Order

Read what some of the early readers have to say about Her Sweet Surrender:

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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Choking to death

At one time pollution was viewed as one of the likely causes of man-made self destruction.  There were a number of eco-warning collapse novels written (for a review of one).  The cleanup within the United States helped put pollution on the back burner.  To the frustration of some, the closely related topic of global warming has gobbled up much of the attention.

But the increasingly globalized economy has in many cases pushed the polluters overseas.  There is still a lot of pollution, but we aren't in its immediate neighborhood.  And it won't do much good to slow up global warming, if we choke ourselves to death.

Earth’s Acidity Rising -- Major Causes and Shifting Trends Examined to Guide Future Mitigation Efforts, (full report), Karin C. Rice, Janet S. Herman, USGS, January 2012 (hat tip: The Daily Impact)

This comprehensive review, the first on this topic to date, found the mining and burning of coal, the mining and smelting of metal ores, and the use of nitrogen fertilizer are the major causes of chemical oxidation processes that generate acid in the Earth-surface environment.

These widespread activities have increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, increasing the acidity of oceans; produced acid rain that has increased the acidity of freshwater bodies and soils; produced drainage from mines that has increased the acidity of freshwater streams and groundwater; and added nitrogen to crop lands that has increased the acidity of soils.

Previous studies have linked increased acidity in oceans to damage to ocean food webs, while increased acidity in soils has the potential to affect their ability to sustain crop growth.
“We believe that this study is the first attempt to assess all of the major human activities that are making Earth more acidic,” said USGS scientist Karen Rice, who led the study. “We hope others will use this as a starting point for making scientific and management progress to preserve the atmosphere, waters, and soils that support human life.”

While there has been some progress in reducing the effects of some of these activities through modifications in how the minerals are mined and used in some parts of the world, and increased regulations, other regions are expanding their use of these resources and increasing the effects of acidification....

To examine the global impact of acidification, the researchers developed a series of world maps to show current coal use, nutrient consumption, and copper production and smelting by country. By combining this information with the anticipated population growth through 2050 and the impact of changing technology, regulations and other factors, the researchers address shifting trends in acidification....

The populations of some countries in Africa are projected to increase in the near future. To support the growing populations, these countries likely will be forced to apply more nitrogen fertilizer to their crops than they currently use, increasing the acidification of soils and freshwater resources in a region that had not previously been affected.
The initial report did get some interest.  You can find a number of people who commented on it, but it seems to have faded quickly.

I, as typical for me, tend to view the problem as being another secondary spin-off of global over population.

Acid Rain (from here)

Monday, July 30, 2012

Global warming denial champion - changes sides

A major critic of the hockey-stick model and global warming theory in general has reversed course.  What makes it even more ironic is that his study was funded by the Koch brothers.

The maneuvering room for climate change denial is getting to be pretty tiny.

Neela Banerjee, Los Angelos Times, 29 July 2012

The verdict is in: Global warming is occurring and emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activity are the main cause.

This, according to Richard A. Muller, professor of physics at UC Berkeley, MacArthur Fellow and co-founder of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project. Never mind that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and hundreds of other climatologists around the world came to such conclusions years ago. The difference now is the source: Muller is a long-standing, colorful critic of prevailing climate science, and the Berkeley project was heavily funded by the Charles Koch Charitable Foundation, which, along with its libertarian petrochemical billionaire founder Charles G. Koch, has a considerable history of backing groups that deny climate change.
In an opinion piece in Saturday’s New York Times titled “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic,” Muller writes: “Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.”

Personally I have been convinced for a while now, but generally found the idea of siding with odd characters like Al Gore to be a little uncomfortable.  As this was funded by a Libertarian-Republican group, may be we can start approaching the problem in some fashion other than as a political talking points.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Taxes and the Zombie Apocalypse

You read the headline and thought I was kidding?

Death and Taxes and Zombies
Adam Chodorow, 5 July 2012

The U.S. stands on the precipice of a financial disaster, and Congress has done nothing but bicker. Of course, I refer to the coming day when the undead walk the earth, feasting on the living. A zombie apocalypse will create an urgent need for significant government revenues to protect the living, while at the same time rendering a large portion of the taxpaying public dead or undead. The government’s failure to anticipate or plan for this eventuality could cripple its ability to respond effectively, putting us all at risk.

This article fills a glaring gap in the academic literature by examining how the estate and income tax laws apply to the undead. Beginning with the critical question of whether the undead should be considered dead for estate tax purposes, the article continues on to address income tax issues the undead are likely to face. In addition to zombies, the article also considers how estate and income tax laws should apply to vampires and ghosts. Given the difficulties identified herein of applying existing tax law to the undead, new legislation may be warranted. However, any new legislation is certain to raise its own set of problems. The point here is not to identify the appropriate approach. Rather, it is to goad Congress and the IRS into action before it is too late.

It is a 25 page long paper.

From the body of the paper:
The first question that must be answered is whether the person who became a zombie died in the first place. The answer depends in large part on the type of zombie involved, as can be seen by considering a virus-caused zombie outbreak. In many cases zombie plagues clearly cause death under either the heart or brain function standard... It seems a stretch to conclude that those who transform seamlessly into zombies should be considered dead. They never lose heart or brain function, though they now function quite differently from before. While it might be tempting to declare them dead, significant line-drawing problems would arise as one tried to distinguish between zombies and those who have suffered some mental or physical breakdown. Put differently, were such zombies to be considered dead because they suffered a personality change, physical disability, or decreased brain function, the door would be open to declaring dead a wide range of people currently considered to be alive (p. 8).
That's right, if we get to premature with our calls on zombiedom, a lot of people could be in trouble.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

The doom of ice and water - list

A nice young lady, Sunhi Mistwalker,  has a short chilling post apocalyptic story-series out After the Darkness, and  After the Darkness 2 .  Although you wouldn't know it from the first installment's cover, it is set in an ice-world, and thus she was asking me about my list of sympathetically themed list of ice and water novels that I had on hand.

As some of you know - I think I was mumbling about it in the comments - I am working on a international review series of novels at the moment..  But another grouping I had planned was the anti-fire list - wet and cold - if you will.  Sort of like from Frost's Poem

Fire and Ice

Some say the world will end in fire,

Some say in ice.

From what I've tasted of desire

I hold with those who favor fire.

But if it had to perish twice,

I think I know enough of hate

To say that for destruction ice

Is also great

And would suffice.

-Robert Frost

Here is the list of what I have on hand- in hard copy:

John Boland - White August, 1955

John Christopher – The World in Winter, 1962
J.G. Ballard – The Drowned World, 1962
J.G. Ballard – Terminal Beach, 1964

Stephen Minot - Chill of Dusk (not sure if it is cold, but it is set in the State of Main) 1964

Anna Kavan – Ice, 1967

René Barjavel - The Ice People 1970

Arnold Federbush – Ice!, 1978
P.C. Jersild – After the Flood, 1982
Crawford Kilian – Ice Quake (same event as his Tsunami below), no date?
Crawford Kilian – Tsunami, 1983
Charles Whitmore – Winter’s Daughter, 1984.

George Turner - Drowning Towers, 1987

Jonathan Lerner – Caught in a Still Place (cover has small boat washed up on a beach) 1989

Michael Armstrong – Agviq, 1990

J.D. Cameron – Omega Sub (part of a series) 1991

Philip McCutchan – Flood, 1991

David Hood – Fatal Climate, (Sea level rising) 2000
Adam Roberts – The Snow, 2004.
I have already reviewed:

Robert Edric's Salvage which would have made the list based on its flooding theme,

Julie Myerson's Then which would add a fair amount of ice cubes into the mix, and finally

Cynthia Kraack's Minnesota Cold which by title alone makes the list.

I am sure I have some on my Kindle, but I have already told you about most of that list  earlier.

Friday, July 27, 2012

What is a conscript army like?

In your post-apocalyptic settings, we do from time-to-time see ad hoc military units thrown into action.  They also show up as dragooned units taking part in an invasion of the United States.

How good are these units?  Against regular troops, not very good at all.  You here a fare amount of laughter at the expense of some countries as to the "bravery" of their troops in battle.  In World War 2 the Italians tend to take it on the chin.  Why did these units fight so badly?

Typically these armies come from very hierarchical backgrounds, or at least a very hierarchical military culture.  Punishments are severe and there is no talking back to the officers.  There is a great distance between the officers and the men that they are in charge of.

We have already discussed and his experience at the blowpipe rocket launcher demonstration,  we will again go to Armand and his experience in the Falklands.  Note that when he mentions the Ghurkas, they  are a traditional elite mercenary unit from Nepal that have a long standing history of survviing with the British Army.  They are one of the "elite" units included in some of our earlier discussions, and were famous for using a curved short sword, and for preferring not to take prisoners.  They have been described as the best light infantry in the world.

Topic: How Many Companies in Argentine Regts (Falklands)?
Armand, TMP Discussion Boards
Glad you had enjoy my poor experiences at war my friends.
I had a privilege to be at first line as witness of the most important combats there because I was appointed to the Communication Co of my Regiment because I know english (ha!ha! many here think otherwise)and "hear" a lot of good info.
Also, when I was pointed to the "movil Co" had to be at "Two Sister" as an advance guard, then when we literaly had to run from there I return to my original position at "Mount Longdon" and when our enemy broke our lines there, the remnats of my unit fly to "Tumbledown" were we made our last stand with our friends of the Marine Infantry.
About the "bloopers" of the Argentine Army, the list is incredible large.
Only some I remember here.
1st. When we arrived to the Islands our equipment was in large bags as the WW2 US Marines used. No backpacks for the infantry!. Do you know how it was to carried that long, heavy and uncomfortable bags 15 kmts?
And at rapid trot?
Half of my Company went sick only when we arrived to… nowhere!. In an open space without tents or tools.
Yes, there were one WW2 shield for each four platoons which of course broke before the first fox-hold was made.
You had to asked yourselves: So, how the Argentines made their defense positions?
Answer: Stealing material from Puerto Argentino (Port Stanley)of course!. But be aware if they caught you!.
Directly to be staked on the ground.
Do you imagine what was to be staked as in the XIX° Century Indian frontier on a ground so fluid with strong winds and temperature under 0°?
And of course only with your shirt (from summer weather).
My fellow officer, the medic, inform me that from each 12 men who go to be staked, only one can return to the lines and in a very bad state of health.
2nd. Ammo and practice.
You are at war and you had only fired one round (of five bullets) so you ask for more to practice.
Answer: NO.
They only give us ammo 24hrs before the combat began and not much of them. Many soldiers had to fight only with the three magazines they had when they arrived to the islands.
3rd. Food and cleaning.
Food? What was that? Some poor WW2 German kitchens for 200 men when they had to feed 800. Meat? Bread? Vegetables? NEVER. Only soup and some potage or stew if you were lucky enough with some floating things that better never know what they were!
So… you had to steal again or kill some sheep to survive.
Water? Well, a very old tractor came everyday from Port Stanley with a tank. But it was soon destroyed by the British Air force, so you had your canteen for one or two days only.
And you had to be shaved!
4th Your weapons.
Anyone knows that you had to perform the diary maintenance of your weapons, especially in a climate so inhospitable.
[Tools] for that?
Your handkerchiefs (if you had carried one from your house) and some kitchen oil.(stolen of course, or bought to the cooks)
Of course, 80% of the conscript never tried. They were more worried to eat, drink or withstand the intense cold who broke your bones.
Same for the heavy weapons. That's why half of the mortars never fire and the MAGs had some problems with the ammo (locked very often).
5th Medical care.
Only the "doctor" of the Regiment were near. I'm talking about the soldiers-doctors, those who came to made the military service and finished they career and were raw conscripts. The professional-doctors were at Puerto Argentino enjoying good food and privileges.
There were not a single male nurse. That task belongs to the most useless soldiers, administrators, gunners without gun and other light wounded.
6th. Intelligence.
We were all time inform about how the war was (big smile).
The intelligence was so good that 24hrs before the fall of the 12° Regiment at Goose Green they still said that the English never came, that they were afraid of us, that they had lost half they fleet, etc.
Suddenly!. It changes and began the tales of the devil "Gurkhas" and what would be our fate in their hands.
That day all the officer with the rank superior to lieutenant decided to retreat to Port Stanley for "instructions for the superiority". Our Captain left the place with our only jeep and never return. From four Captains only one remain with our Regiment.
Some seniors NCOs take the same path some minutes after.
Well, there is some examples to how the argentine infantry was training before and on the field at the Falklands (Malvinas), so the anecdote of the "blow pipes" not took my atention. It was a funny day.
Ah!. About the simulators that were mention, maybe had been used by "veteran" units of the Argentine Army. Half our Army was veteran and in good training as the Mountain troops, the Marines, Commandos, old units as the Grenadiers of San Martin, etc, but the units in Malvinas were mostly conscripts, so easy expendables.

Note that the Argentine brass had not thought that the British would fight for the islands, so they kept the elite units home to face off any threat from their traditional enemies on the mainland.

Historically, ad hoc militia units frequently are about as effective these the story above describes, but when they are volunteers they can sometimes rise to the occasion and put up a spirited fight if they are not required to maneuver too much.  In our Revolutionary War, you go from the extremes of the Battle of Camden (disaster)  to The Battle of Stone Mountain (victory over regular troops), all in one campaign.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Weapons familiarity

I saw this little tale of hubris, and thought I would share.

It is from an Argentinian who served as a Second Lieutenant during the Falklands War, and is from a friendly discussion at a miniatures wargaming  board.  It started as friendly discussion, with I believe people from both sides discussing, and Armand shared some stories:

Note that the blowpipe in discussion is a handheld rocket launcher.

Topic:  How Many Companies in Argentine Regts (Falklands)?
Armand, TMP Discussion Boards

Bazookas? I had not seen any but yes, I saw the blowpipes when they arrived at the islands.
Impossible to forget!.
The senior Seargeant took one and said that is was so easy to use that he didn't need to read any instrucctions (who were in english and of course he decided that not want any translation from one of his soldiers who had studied that idiom). He point to a ridge, fire and the projectile shoots out…backwards! destroying a pile of drawers [crates?] with supplies distant at 100 meters.
The face of fear and surprise of that ignorant fool was so comical that all the Company began to laught to tears!.
[After] that, the imbécil decided that those weapons cannot be used!.
He never would accept he was wrong. And so, we had not any to used at combat.

Blowpipe in action. Note in our story, the men would be facing the other way.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Plagues to proseperity

The black death, bubonic plague, has been sited as a cause for the temporary increase in per capita (per person) wealth in Europe during the High Middle Ages.  There may have been less wealth after the devastation, but there were also a whole let less people to divide that wealth between.  The counter intuitive notion that epidemics have a silver lining is not unique to the High Medieval Europe.  One study notes that Young (A.Young, The Gift of the Dying, 2005 (pdf)) that the AIDS epidemic in Africa did reduce the fertility rate, increase the scarcity of labor, and  therefore boosted the consumption of the remaining population.

The problem with the simple model of "plague = prosperity" is that the timing is a little off, and that not all plagues lead to an equal amount of prosperity.  What the following study is trying to show is the mechanism and circumstances that lead to the Black Death being advantageous to Europe's eventual technological breakout.

“The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe
N. Voigtlander & H.-J. Voth (2012) (pdf of entire document)  (hat tip Big Picture)
Malthus was, broadly, right in his description of the world before 1800. Almost all income was agricultural income, and agricultural income was dependent largely on a fixed factor of production, land. As production technology became better (which happened at a very slow rate), wages increased, lowering death rates and increasing birth rates, which led to growing population. As population increased, less fertile land was brought into production, lowering per capita income. Per capita income fell until the birth-death ratio was again in steady state, with society at a higher level of population than before the new technology, but no richer overall.

This story is only broadly true, however. We do see regions diverge slightly: Europe becomes twice as rich as China by the 1700s, for instance. In a Malthusian world, how is this possible? Voigtlander and Voth propose an interesting new mechanism – their model is much more complicated than what I present here, but the spirit is the same.

Take as given that increased wages led to greater urbanization (people above subsistence have a taste for goods that can only be produced in cities), and that the Malthusian mechanism above holds, returning us to the subsistence steady state after shocks. Europe is rather unique in the following way: higher levels of urbanization there were quite deadly by world standards. Voigtlander and Voth mention three particular reasons why. First, European cities tended to both be filthy and high density. Human waste was often just tossed onto the street in Europe, whereas in China it was much more common to carry the waste to the countryside for use as fertilizer; partly for this reason, China had relatively high rural mortality, and Europe relatively high urban mortality. Second, geography and political circumstances in the early modern era meant that warfare was much more common in Europe than in other parts of the world. Wars of this era generally just meant increased death by disease rather than mass destruction of capital. Third, urban centers traded more, and common disease resistance across regions in Europe was not as prevalent as in China.
So what you have is a variety of equilibrium.  Europe, through the agency of the Black Death, resets its population at a lower level and started an equilibrium that lead to greater demand for manufactured goods, and an increase in warfare.  Since both the increased urbanization needed for the manufacturing, and the increased warfare lead to even further disease derived casualties, this new equilibrium was self reinforcing.  Europe became leaner and meaner.

Within this new equilibrium the Europeans had a greater incentive to go abroad for wealth.  Since they were blocked by powerful enemies on the land routes, ao they went by sea.  Which lead the particularly highly diseases Europeans to come into contact with the particularly isolated immune-deficient Americans.  As had happened before, the early increases in technology lead to a higher equilibrium population overall.  With the introduction of the steam engine (if not earlier) and the practical use of fossil fuels for kinetic energy, the Malthusian lock was broken.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Cracking virus code

As we march our way toward the land of diminishing marginal returns in medicine, crop science, etc., not all the news is bad.  The system is dynamic, which is what makes absolute predictions fail so miserably.

Research led by a team at Harvard are starting to crack the code to the resistant bacteria, and find out what exactly it it that is making them so resistant.

Harvard team cracks the code for new drug resistant superbugs
Mary Leach, Massachusetts Eye and Ear via Earthsky, 22 May 2012 (hat tip: NC)

The genome sequence gave us unprecedented insight into what makes these highly resistant bacteria tick. Several things were remarkable,” says Gilmore. “Vancomycin resistance repeatedly went into just one tribe of MRSA, so the question became ‘what makes that group special — why did they start getting vancomycin resistance?”’
“What we found was that this group of MRSA has properties that appear to make it more social, so they can live with other bacteria like Enterococcus. This would allow those MRSA to more easily pick up new resistances,” adds Kos. “The good news is that some of these properties weaken the strain’s ability to colonize, and may be limiting their spread.”

Prof. Mike Gilmore with Dr. Veronica Koh

Monday, July 23, 2012

Viral composites: "something not seen before"

Some vaccines use a weakened live virus as their agent to immunize the host. The Australians have managed the unique feat of (accidentally) getting two of these live-virus from vaccines to recombine into a newer deadlier form of virus: oh joy.

The original virus was killing about 5% of their chicken population. The new virus is killing about 17%. Note, either number would be considered absolutely devastating if similarly deadly disease were unleashed on the world’s human population. The most comparable modern pandemic, the 1918 Spanish Influenza, is thought to have killed about 5% of the world population.

Brett Smith, RedOrbit, 13 July 2012 (hat tip: NC)

Australian scientists looking to vaccinate chicken populations against a respiratory disease may have accidentally unleashed a disease far more deadly than the one they hoped to prevent.

According to a report published this week in Science, the genomes from two different strains of the herpesvirus infectious laryngotracheitis (ILT) virus that were used in vaccines have recombined to produce more virulent ILT viruses near Sydney and Melbourne.“These new strains were formed by recombination from the different vaccine strains and that they were actually more virulent than the vaccine strains that gave rise to them,” said lead author Joanne Devlin from The University of Melbourne, Parkville.

“This is something we’ve never before seen before in the field.”

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Now its rice

If the news about the U.S. corn season was not bad enough, now India is having issues with its Rice crop.  Fortunately they had a bumper crop last year, so at least as far as India goes, if they refuse to export any rice, with stocks on hand, they may be o.k. for the  time being.

Pratik Parija, Bloomburg, 20 July 2012
A 22 percent shortfall in monsoon rains delayed sowing of crops from rice to cotton, stoking a rally in commodity prices and threatening to accelerate India’s inflation that exceeded 7 percent for a fifth straight month in June. Dry weather from the U.S. to Australia has parched fields, pushing up corn, wheat and soybean prices on concern global supplies will be curbed. Costly rice, staple for half the world, may increase global food prices forecast by the United Nations to advance this month.
“The whole grains complex of wheat, corns, soybeans are forcing rice prices higher as well,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity-markets newsletter in Sydney. “Indian production is very important for the market.”

Rice planting in India dropped 19 percent to 9.68 million hectares (24 million acres) this year from 12.04 million hectares a year earlier, the farm ministry said July 13. The country is estimated to export 8 million tons of rice in 2011-2012, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, accounting for about 25 percent of the global trade.

Monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, is the worst since 2009 when showers were 22 percent less than a 50-year average. Rainfall in July, the wettest month in the June-September rainy season, may miss a June forecast for a normal rain, L.S. Rathore, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said July 16.
Food-grain production reached a record 257.44 million tons in the year ended June 30 after a second year of normal rains boosted harvests, the farm ministry said July 17. That prompted the government to lift curbs on exports of the grains last year. Non-basmati shipments totaled 5.25 million tons since September, according to the food ministry.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Drought: Texas sized

Texas is running out of water.  Some people are getting upset.

How They Do Drought in Texas
The Daily Impact, 9 July 2012 (hat tip: NC)

Like the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, the Ogallala contains fossil water, deposited by glaciers tens of thousands of years ago. That means there’s only so much of it. In a wet year — and there aren’t going to be many more wet years in North Texas — the Ogallala water levels might gain a fraction of an inch in replenishment. Prior to the onset of this drought, Texas Panhandle farmers were habitually drawing it down by about a foot a year.
Then it got really dry and the farmers more than doubled down on irrigation, dropping the surface of the aquifer under the Panhandle by 2.5 – 3 feet. One well recorded a 25-foot drop.

But wait, it gets worse. According to the Texas Tribune, last year, in the worst of the drought so far, West Texas farmers continued to irrigate crops that were already dead with precious Ogallala water. They didn’t do it because they wanted to; they did it because they had to irrigate through the entire growing season in order to collect federally subsidized (and regulated) crop insurance.

The High Plains Underground Water Conservation District understands the First Law of Consumption (as propounded in Brace for Impact): if you only have so much stuff in a container, and you’re taking it out as fast as you can, pretty soon you won’t have any stuff left. So it has proposed placing a cap on water withdrawals from the Ogallala, putting meters on wells, that sort of thing. Doing, in other words, one of the main things we invented government to do — protecting the Commons for the common good.
They note that the Texas Supreme Court has sided with the land owner in a case involving regulating the amount of well water draw down from private property:  Edwards Aquifer v. Day & McDaniel

The authors of the article are getting upset. They seem to be under the perception that centralized control will alleviate the problem.

My problem with the reasoning of the problem, is that they are not addressing the real problem. The real problem is likely not the individual farmers, but the large urban metro areas that pipe in enormous amounts of water to sustain their economy. Even when the farmers activities do draw down the water supply, it is this enormous growing world urban population that they are feeding. Preventing the "taking" is simply a way to keep the government from shoving all the costs of  "common" solution onto one group - mainly the landowners.  If it is worth the time of the greater common people to come up with a solution, the costs of the solution should not be buried under regulatory restrictions.

Texas drought (see here for source)

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Apocalyptically dressed to kill

Cosmetic companies make out like bandits during economic downturns. Their sales either remain steady (thus increasing as a percentage of total economic output), or increase.

The trend to dress up during a downturn, does leave some interesting questions. In the majority of our fictional downturns (see my book review tab), people are walking around disheveled and generally all worn out looking. Should they be portrayed as being dressed to kill instead? Of course the vampires are already dressed to kill, but I mean this in the more figurative sense.

And why exactly is it that women send more on cosmetics during a downturn. One theory was that they want to cheer themselves up, but it looks like it comes down to deeper biological programing then that.

Lipstick, the Recession and Evolutionary Psychology
Sara Hill, Scientific American, 27 June 2012 (hat tip: Big Picture

While economic recessions are a recent development in human history, fluctuations in prosperity and resource availability are not. Human ancestors regularly went through cycles of abundance and famine, each of which favors different reproductive strategies. While periods of abundance favor strategies associated with postponing reproduction in favor of one’s own development (e.g., by pursuing an education), periods of scarcity favor more immediate reproduction. The latter strategy is more successful during times of resource scarcity because it decreases the likelihood that one will perish before having the chance to reproduce.

For women, periods of scarcity also decrease the availability of quality mates, as women’s mate preferences reliably prioritize resource access. This preference stems from the important role that mates’ resources have played in women’s reproductive success. Because economic recessions are associated with higher unemployment and minimal or negative returns on investments, news of a recession may therefore signal to women that financially secure men—those able to invest resources in rearing offspring—are becoming scarce...

Furthermore, we discovered that the lipstick effect and a woman’s desire to attract a mate with resources are unrelated to her independent resource access. Women of both higher and lower socioeconomic status expressed an increased desire to buy luxury beauty products when primed with recession cues. This suggests that an uncertain economic climate leads women to heighten mate attraction effort irrespective of their own resource need.

Sarah Hill, Texas Christian University (from here)

Since virtual girlfriends will wear the best lipstick that software can provide them with, does this mean that they will be relatively more attractive in times of plenty?  Note that Ms. Hill's paper on the subject is here (pdf).

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

EOW skirmish combat 7: Shock

We have been taking the part of various characters, not all of them nice, in post-apocalyptic novels.  Now a lot of the supernatural creatures in these novels could certainly cause shock.  But that is too easy.  If your are some summoned being of the Elder Gods, and the very site of you drives people insane, I am not sure there is much of a tactical lesson there.  So instead, we are going to take a more off beat group.

We are going to be the Chinese invaders of Nebraska!  I should probably tell our readers here from other countries, and U.S. citizens from either coast that indeed Nebraska is part of the United States and that according to certain varieties of apocalyptic fiction, the Chinese have a burning desire to take.  Truthfully we (remember we are the Chinese now) usually land in San Francisco, but along with our blue helmeted buddies in the U.N., we always seem to be marching into those Western States.  Apparently the Chinese are lacking in arid, cold farm and mineral lands closer to home.  In the case of the U.N. they are trying to erase the shame of not being able to bomb next door defenseless Libya without U.S. help.
Anyway as you will see, we have what it takes to create the second most deadly multiplier we will discuss in our series:  Shock.
Shock is a temporary paralysis or inability to perform. If you adversary is in shock, they are at least for a short period of time, nearly helpless.  Combatants in shock are cowering behind cover, running away, staring into space, or trying to surrender.  Of course being able to recognize and take advantage of that situation is another matter entirely.
Shock can be caused by a variety of  factors:  surprise,  sudden approach, the use of armor, and the use of certain types of weapons.  Obviously in low level infantry skirmishes, many of these are not likely to be present..  However, it is noteworthy that even relatively low level National Guard units might have access to some or all of these implements.
Surprise attacks by infantry have about a 50 percent chance of also causing shock if one of two other factors is present: poor or non-existent training of the defensive units (in the book stated as being a “weak nationality factor’), and night or poor visibility.  So if you attack even well trained units on a foggy morning, taking them by surprise, they are going to be “shocked” or temporarily paralyzed about 50% of the time.  So they will not only be unready, they may not even fire at you with what they have on hands.  Likely they are running or putting their hands in the air.  However, when one of these factors is not present, a surprise infantry attack only leads to shock about 18% of the time.
We aren’t going to go too much into artillery or armor.  That isn’t the type of fight we are talking about here.  However, in brief, short and fast works as well with artillery as slow and long.  With armor, sometime the sheer speed of the attack works, but armor combined with surprise leads to shock 95% of the time.  We can see why the Cartels like the idea of having their own armored vehicles.
The Human Face of War
Jim Storr, Birmingham War Studies, London, New York, 2009

Shock has two main battlefield effects. The first is to reduce defense effectiveness, as measured  the attackers casualties by about 40 percent.  This is in addition to the effect of surprise. Hence an attack which achieves both surprise, and shock will degrade defense performance by about 60-65 percent

The second aspect of shock effect is to disrupt the defense. Some individuals and small groups many continue to resist. Others will give up, surrender or withdraw. This effect will be variable and unpredictable. The overall effect will depend both on exploitation by the attacker and the defending commander’s ability to restore the cohesion of his forces. Thus any action that is likely to inflict shock, such as a sudden bombardment, should be followed up by rapid exploitation on multiple routes.  That exploitation should locate week points where individuals and small groups have been shocked, and exploit them p87.

Shock is ephemeral.  It does not last very long.  The quick rush of the tanks, the hurricane artillery bombardment will be recovered from.  We discussed in our Surprise discussion (Number 6) that the U.S. could use training and doctrine to mitigate a narrow range of some types of surprise.  Well in World War 1, the Germans learned to do a very similar trick with the massive allied bombardments that pummeled their trench lines.  They became so good at rushing to the defense after the cessation of a bombardment, that the allies found that they literally had to just behind a rolling wall of artillery shells in order to take positions through firepower.  The Germans had trained away the effects of artillery shock.  In World War 2, possibly with less success, the Germans worked similarly to reduce the shock caused by armor attacks.
So what are our poor Chinese going to do against all these rifle toting patriots?  Use aggressive scouting to pin the opponent - relying on the fact that few of the defenders have much training, and that few of them have worked together previously.  While the defenders are talking about who is going where, the organized Chinese will be moving.  Once the defenders are situated, you can use rapid bursts of light mortars or automatic grenade launchers to cause them to freeze up while you rush their positions.  Since they won't have tanks, you can use your lighter armored personnel carriers to cause shock with rapid attacks on located positions.  Isolated snipers can be bypassed using smoke or terrain.  The main point to remember is that you are still mobile and in communication.   Partisan groups were effective in Russia against the Germans, but they did take very heavy casualties.  There is not the population density in many portions of the West to support a continuous drain on casualties.  With the population already starving (remember we Chinese/U.N troops are usually opportunists, not the causal agents), they are not likely to be supportive of a group that is causing even more death and destruction.  Red Dawn?  Maybe.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

EOW skirmish combat 5: aggressive reconnaissance

Alright lets see, we are on a through the looking glass trip through our favorite (somewhat) realistic apocalypse novels.  We faced off the zombies, been cannibles (!), befriended a Nigerian Princess, and played Canadian sweepstakes games, fought the angry citizens of Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, and now...  Well, I noted a trend, a new player on the post-apocalyptic block. They have been around for a while, but seem to be gaining almost preternatural powers of late.  Since we are going to be short sweet here, and won't need our firearms this time, today we are going to be.... a wild dog pack.  Lets kill be sure to kill off the most annoying survivors first.
When you zoom up to the campaign level, with thousands or sometimes even millions of people involved, you can discern certain regularities about outcomes. Unfortunately, we are not interested in Armies or Corps here, we are worried about individual level actions. That close air support is not as useful as thought, or that in almost all cases combined arms techniques are more honored in the breach than in actuality is interesting, but not particularly pertinent.
However, some factors work at numerous levels. They work from the highest army units, down to the single sentry standing guard.
The first of these factors is aggressive reconnaissance. Which in this case means more than simply sending out patrols.  It means seeking out, and moving to engage the enemy in an aggressive fashion.  You are not trying to charge them frontally, but to figure out their position and attempt to turn it, surprise it, or bypass it. Here is an example of the closest thing I can come to our fast moving dog pack - Prussian Hussars (light cavalry - but with the Prussians often their elite cavalry):
Panther War College, Subject 1
On the cold morning of December 4th, 1757, the Prussian King Frederick the Great was riding well ahead of his army and with his advance guard, the Puttmaker and Zieten Hussars. As they approached the city of Newmarkt, Frederick learnt from peasants that “the enemy had established a bakery in that town, that it was garrisoned with pandours, and that Daun’s army was expected”.1,2 It was obvious the Austrians wanted to deploy a base at Newmarkt. If the Austrians were allowed to do so, the hills east of this city would give them an enormous tactical advantage. The Prussian infantry and artillery needed to clear the Austrians from Newmarkt was more than a half a day march away.  Frederick ordered the hussars to storm the city, something very unconventional. Besides an unusual tactical victory (120 killed, 569 captured Croats) and a bounty of bread rations, the Prussian King won the initiative over the Austrians. The enemy was forced both to spend the night almost in the open and most importantly, to fight the next day in terrain of Frederick’s choosing. The battle that ensued the following day at the village of Leuthen left two thirds of the Austrian army destroyed.

If you follow the links embedded in the above, you will see where the German armor car units got their inspiration from.  Yes they did reconnaissance, but many of their objectives (seize this bridge, blow up this railroad junction, et cetera) sound an awful lot like the sneaky version of an assault mission.

Aggression gives you a number of advantages. As we have noted earlier, the combat environment is very dynamic and good information is often lacking.
The Human Face of War
Jim Storr, Birmingham War Studies, London, New York, 2009

By going and finding out, and making things happen, one can influence the battlefield. Combat is uncertain, wand will tend to reward those who can tolerate uncertainty. Tolerance of uncertainty is the hallmark of pragmatism. General David Fraser wrote of Rommel's experience that "war is so uncertain business, so dependent on a concatenation of unpredictable chances, that boldness, a touch of optimism and above all speed can and generally should do better than attempts at exact calculation" p49.

He goes on to enumerate these advantages:
  1. the seizure of opportunities.
  2. the neutralization of enemy reconnaissance
  3. the location of gaps in the defense
  4. disruption to the defense including in rear areas and HQs [undefended dependants]
  5. demoralization
  6. physically threatening rear areas and HQs [homes/shelter and supplies]
  7. creating uncertainty, through destruction or capture
  8. disguising the nature and direction of the attackers thrusts p50.
In short, you just make a mess of everything!
Aggressive reconnaissance is noted as giving a 26:1 advantage on campaign. Note that it is almost impossible to come up with a 26:1 advantage by manpower alone. If you had ten people in a house, how would you even seriously get 260 into place to fight it out with them?
Note aggressive reconnaissance is not the same thing as the "patrolling" that the U.S. military does around its bases in occupied territory in the many low intensity "small wars" that we have been involved in going back to Vietnam.   There you are trying to keep an eye on the middle ground, stir up trouble, and intend on calling in massive support fire of some form if it gets really harry.   Keeping an eye on your surroundings is certainly a good idea, but realistically, any wandering around in a post-apocalyptic world that doesn't involve scavenging is probably a luxury few small groups can afford.  Of course, since we are dog pack in today's apocalyptic adventure we will smell them coming from a mile away!
Going to go Dire Wolf on them!

EOW skirmish combat 6: Surprise, surprise, surprise

We have been working our way through all sorts of apocalyptic scenarios.  We have been cannibals, wild dogs, the maurauding hordes of Mecklenburg, North Carolina,  cannibals, and others.  So what new post-apocalyptic role should we start with?  The title of course comes from the old TV character Gomer Pyle (short youtube), and of course noone expects the Spanish Inquisition (short youtube).  But neither of those are particularly apocalyptic in tone.  I think today we are going to be those David-like (as in First Samual  17 David verus Goliath) characters that swing well above their weight.  Because women buy more books than men, a lot of them are young ladies.  I don't find this too implausible.  Men are generally stronger than women (something like 60%), but that shouldn't matter much with firearms, and even with archery, todays young women fed on a high protein diet certainly have the potential to be much more athletic than was historically the case.
In any case, one  of the key characteristics of these youngsters is that they people let them get the drop on them.  They use surprise to their advantage.  Whatever the normal outcome might have been in a battle, the "weak" win through surprise.

Surprise is...well it is surprise. Nothing fancy about it. The unexpected happens to you. In the case of combat, it is unexpectedly bad. Surprise is very closely associated with, and can often lead to shock..
The most important factor in deciding battle is surprise. It is easily the largest multiplier effect to a combat unit/ combatant.
The Human Face of War
Jim Storr, Birmingham War Studies, London, New York, 2009

The achievement of initial and multiple surprise has the same effect as a force ratio of 2,000:1 on average, in terms of their impact on achieving a breakthrough at the beginning of a campaign, 2:000:1! It also has the same effect as a force ratio of 260:1 (on average) in terms of overall campaign impact. These figures are averages. But in 95 per cent of all occasions where surprise was created, the effect was at least as great as that of a force ratio of 10:1 p50.

The effect of surprise attacks on enemy's flanks and rear is considerable. HA [Historical Analysis] of a representative selection of infantry battles showed that in a company- or battalion-level attack, the attacker's casualties tend to be about twice those of the defender if the attack is frontal. Where the attacker manages to find an exposed flank...the defender typically takes slightly more than twice as many casualties as the attacker. When an attack strikes the defender’s unprotected rear, attacker tends to inflict almost four times as many casualties as he suffers p85.

Surprise occurs in about 40 percent of infantry attacks. It has three main effects. It increases the probability of success, reduces the attacker's casualties, and increases the probability of shock. The probability of success in the attack in an armored battle typically ranges from 40 to 54% when there is no surprise. Where surprise occurs, the probability of success is about 75%. This increase is independent of force ratios, whereas when surprise is not achieved, it is very dependent on force ratios. In other words, if there is no surprise, you are going to have to slowly attrition your way through the defense. In infantry attacks, casualties were 42 % lower (excluding effects of shock) with surprise. Using the same source:

Surprise will normally [95%+]  have a greater impact than a force ratio of 10:1. The creation and exploitation of surprise was central to German tactics in the Second world War. It does much to explain the difference in battlefield performance between the German and US armies described by van Creveld. As the Canadian military historian John English put it 'the German Armey was, in fact, an army saturated with surprise. Mobility and maneuver were but the respective means to effect it in time and space' p86.

What does this mean?  There are three parts.  Since attackers usually control the timing of a fight.  It is easier for attacker to surprise defenders than the other way around.  Second, you must excute to take advantage of the surpise.  There are numerous instances where one force is completely surprised, but does not lose.  A clear case of this would be the opening of the long Irag- Iran war.  The Iranians were completely surprised, but did not loose the war.  In fact the Iraqi gains were relatively limited.  Why?  Because in order to take advantage of a surprise, you must be able to execute.  Finally, there is almost distance, no expense, no cost that is not worth paying to achieve surprise.  The only other force multipliers that even come close to those for surprise are those for shock (temporary psychological incapacitation) and surprise is one of the major causes of shock.  Concurently, there is almost nothing more important than preventing your own forces from being surprised.
In our apocalyptic fiction,  lot of the surprise at the small unit skirmish level seems to be of the rather obvious nature. The roadside ambush is not only good a few weeks into the dangers, but in some cases months as well. While I sometimes wonder what these ambushers are doing in between the waits for the automobiles that either aren't running (EMP), or are out of fuel (economic crash), but that is a rather limited form of surprise. In fact, experienced troops can train so well for the trail side ambush that they can train their reactions to a point where they can turn that advantage.
In Vietnam
Lieutenant General Julian J. Ewell, Major General Ira A. Hunt, Jr. Departement of the Army, 1995
When snipers came into their own, it became apparent that aimed rifle fire was killing Viet Cong. In thinking about this, the thought occurred that the Viet Cong basically could not shoot and our men could. By that time (December 1968) the Viet Cong were beginning to fragment and we had many contacts which were essentially meeting engagements between small groups of men. By polling the commanders, it was found that the contact ranges were much closer than we had imagined in such open terrain-on the order of 10 to 25 meters.
We then decided, more on faith than conviction, that we would go for aimed shot kills rather than fire superiority. We devised a very simple training drill to teach men to shoot under these conditions:
a. Quick kill technique
b. Short range
c. Single aimed shots (quick kill)
d. No full automatic mode
e. Quick reaction (seconds)
The battalion commander...would determine what his normal opening range was and how quickly a soldier must fire to beat the enemy to the draw.  We will say that a battalion commander set 25 meters and 8 seconds as his criteria. Each company, every third or fourth day during stand-down, would have the riflemen shoot at anything (tin cans, targets, whatever) until they could get a first round hit at 25 meters in 8 seconds. By repetition, this became an automatic reflex action. This one idea in combination with good night ambushes made it possible for our small rifle units to wreak heavy damage on the enemy with low friendly casualties. One reason it worked so well was that the average Communist soldier was not trained to shoot and could not afford to expend the ammunition necessary to learn. This idea has been termed the "15-Second War." Chart 13 shows why...this idea paid off manyfold on the battlefield in the Upper Delta and III Corps area during all of 1969. From Chapter 6, page 123.
The Fifteen Second War:  Chart 13: Fire Power versus Time Conception

Note that the overall firepower level is lower, but response time is much quicker.  Although the author isn't really saying it.  The men were being trained, within a very narrow phrame of reference to mitigate against both surprise and shock.   The soldiers did not become sharpshooters.  Truthfully, I doubt many of their initial return rounds hit.  But they were close enough to supress the enemy, and given the natural advantage in training, once surprise/shock was avoided,  the American could be expected to win the battle.  It is the perfect example of the effective use of doctrine, and effective training of that doctrine.


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