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No Sign Of A Slowdown

March 2007
Asia Monitor: South East Asia Monitor Volume 1;Mar2007, Vol. 18 Issue 3, p5
Country Report
Country Report
The article provides an economic outlook for Vietnam as of March 2007. The economy is expected to sustain its strong performance in 2007 and grow by 8.2 percent, indicating that the country will remain one of the world's most rapidly expanding countries. Its entry into the World Trade Organization is expected to attract foreign investment and improve consumer confidence.

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Just as the Tea Party was born on the streets of Chicago just a few years ago, there’s a new rumbling taking place again. This time, in one of Chicago’s poorest and most violent neighborhoods.

This past Thursday, in the North Lawndale neighborhood, local activists announced the beginning of the new “Broke Party.” About 30 local residents of the North Lawndale neighborhood came out to support the new movement. Mark Carter, Chairman of the Broke Party, and Paul McKinley held a press conference behind an abandoned building in dire need of repair.

A Happy 51rst Birthday banner to President Obama hung on the dilapidated porch with a message, “Violence need a job… …Mr President.” Both argue that Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s new initiative to spend money tearing down similar buildings could help stop the violence if he would use the available funds to go towards repairing the buildings instead. This, Carter says, could create as many 1600 new summer jobs, while at the same time saving and increasing the stock of good housing for residents in the community.

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Liberal Reporter Needed His Mommy After Shooting an AR

Liberal Reporter Needed His Mommy After Shooting an AR

A liberal reporter from the New York Daily News, Gersh Kuntzman, took his photographer to a gun range to see what it was like to fire an AR-15. He wanted to see what it was like to shoot the “weapon of mass shooters.”

Also keep in mind that Mr. Kuntzman went to several gun ranges first, all of whom turned him down. The owner that accepted his idea is from Europe, and therefore the ideas on gun control are different.

Mental narratives

In his head, Kuntzman wanted to see what it was like to shoot a “military style assault weapon.”  He claimed to have shot pistols before.

The owner of the gun range, Frank Stelmach, said he believed it was “fun to shoot something like that.”

Kuntzman was already primed to hate it. Here was his take on the rifle:

Gersh Kuntzman (left) and range owner Frank Stelmach (right)

Not in my hands. I’ve shot pistols before, but never something like an AR-15. Squeeze lightly on the trigger and the resulting explosion of firepower is humbling and deafening (even with ear protection).

The recoil bruised my shoulder. The brass shell casings disoriented me as they flew past my face. The smell of sulfur and destruction made me sick.

The explosions — loud like a bomb — gave me a temporary case of PTSD. For at least an hour after firing the gun just a few times, I was anxious and irritable.

Even in semi-automatic mode, it is very simple to squeeze off two dozen rounds before you even know what has happened.

In fully automatic mode, it doesn’t take any imagination to see dozens of bodies falling in front of your barrel. Gersh Kuntzman

See the narrative? In his head he had already made up his mind that it was a mass killing weapon and as such he was afraid of it. Prejudiced against it before he picked it up.

No bridging that gap

As long as liberals see from that perspective, we will never bridge it. What Mr. Kuntzman believes is false.

It IS fun to shoot those kind of weapons. He claims to have shot a pistol before, but what kind of pistol? Maybe a water pistol?

For info, Gersh Kuntzman is a former tabloid writer, and graduated from the Yale School of Drama. He has been with the New York Daily News since 2012.

H/TUncle Sam’s Misguided Children

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Man Arrested for Wearing a “Deplorable” T-Shirt!

On Monday, a man who voted for Donald Trump was arrested for wearing a T-shirt that referenced Hillary Clinton‘s comments about Trump supporters being “deplorables” to the polls.

Brett Mauthe, 55, was arrested after he went to the polls wearing a pro-Trump hat and a shirt that read, “basket of deplorables.”

According to KSAT 12, Mauthe removed his hat at the request of those who were overseeing the polls. However, since the t-shirt did not violate the election code, he refused to turn it inside out nor remove it.

Subsequently, he was arrested and charged with electioneering.

KSAT 12 reports:

Bulverde police Chief Gary Haecker confirmed the arrest but declined to release details. Instead, he deferred to Comal County’s election coordinator, Cynthia Jaqua.

Jaqua said the offense of electioneering isn’t limited to people who stand outside polling places holding signs. Violations can be committed by voters as well.

“It can mean a T-shirt, a button, a hat, you know?” she said. “Anything related to the voting, the party, the candidate.”

Jaqua declined to release specific details about Mauthe’s arrest.

Jaqua is quoted by My San Antonio:

It’s in the election code. Electioneering is prohibited within a 100-foot marker. You cannot express views for or against a candidate or political party by wearing buttons, T-shirts, hats, whatever else or carrying signs,” she said.

Most people who make the mistake manage to avoid going to jail, she added.

“Every election we have to advise people. Even if it’s a school bond issue. They wear candidates’ shirts and we just have to remind them. ‘Please go into the restroom and turn it inside out.’ This is the first time I recall someone getting arrested,” she said, during two decades working at the county election office.

“A gentleman did walk in a little while ago with a slogan for Trump, and when I asked him to please take it off, he was real nice, and took it off,” she added, while working a polling site Thursday afternoon in New Braunfels.

So, according to this nonsense, a perfectly legal shirt could be worn to the polls one day, but if a politician make reference to the phrase on that shirt it becomes illegal to wear it to the polls the next day? This is utterly ridiculous.

My question on all of that is, what happened to free speech? Is that recognized as a God-given right in the First Amendment? I mean, I realize that the Constitution is to restrict the federal government, but honestly, shouldn’t the states recognize the right of free speech, even in a polling place? Seems to me those kinds of laws stifle the very thing you are electing representatives to ensure are protected.

Other voters agree with me.

“I don’t feel like you should be preaching to anybody, but I do feel like you should be able to wear a shirt if you want and if it has the candidate,” Georgina Pereida said after casting her vote. “I’m kind of shocked, because I think that’s part of the freedoms that we’re voting for.”

Jose Tovar claims that you should know the rules and regulations if you are 18 and vote. Again, I ask, why are there laws and regulations restricting this freedom of speech? It’s not inflammatory. It isn’t a lie. It isn’t slander. What’s illegal about it?

I’ll tell you, politicians want to control people, and this is one of many means they use to do that. This is what happens when you don’t hold your elected officials accountable for the stupid regulations they impose.

Mauthe decided to not comment anymore after his story began to be altered in the media.

“The reason I’m not going to talk any more to the media is that the story gets twisted around, and I don’t want to give you any comment,” he said.

The charged of electioneering is a class C misdemeanor.

Reposted with Permission from Freedom Outpost.

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Magicians fall to Bismarck

For the second straight year, the Minot High boys hockey team advanced to the West Region championship and for the second straight year it saw its opponent celebrate a championship at All Seasons Arena.

Like it had in its loss to Century in last year’s title game, the Magicians grabbed the early lead against Bismarck only to see the Demons come back in the final two periods and grab the region crown with a 5-2 victory Saturday.

The victory keeps the championship trophy in the state capital for the eighth straight year. It’s Bismarck’s sixth region title in eight years and 10th overall. The Magicians were seeking their first championship since 2006. They will face Grand Forks Red River the East Region No. 3 seed on Thursday in the first round of the state tournament in Grand Forks.

It was a typical Minot-Bismarck hockey game: penalties, jawing and bruising hits. The teams combined for 20 penalties totaling 50 minutes.

“It’s a good rivalry,” Bismarck coach Mike Peluso said. “A lot of stuff going on, obviously a lot of penalties. We just kind of weathered a lot of them and we’re fortunate to get the win.”

As they have throughout the tournament, the Magicians scored the first goal of the game and, as was the case the night before, it came off the stick of senior forward Quinn Fuchs. The team captain fired a rebound from the slot past Bismarck goaltender Brett Malkmus at 9:49 of the first. Minot junior forward Matt Flom had the initial shot that came out in front on Malkmus’ save. Minot junior forward Brent Williams was in perfect position to knock in the rebound, but he whiffed the shot, allowing the puck to come cleanly to Fuchs.

The Magicians led 1-0 at the first intermission and held an 8-4 shot advantage.

Bismarck was its own worst enemy at times, taking penalties while on the power play. It began at the end of the first period and continued well into the second. On their second power play of the game, the Demons coaching staff drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty at the end of the first period for arguing a slashing non-call on Minot.

“There just wasn’t any flow to that hockey game,” Minot coach Chad Burckhard said. “It was just ugly hockey. Couple of good hockey teams and unfortunately neither team could get under control. A penalty-filled hockey game took the fun out of it for pretty much everybody.”

The Demons’ third power-play opportunity was again cut short by an undisciplined penalty with 12:02 left in the second. Bismarck’s Cole Olson cross-checked Fuchs into the back of the Demon’s net, wiping out 1:09 of penalty time.

But when Bismarck got to showcase its power play without going to the box itself, it was difficult to stop. The Demons scored on consecutive tries with the man advantage to give them a 2-1 lead heading into the second intermission.

“There a couple things that didn’t go our way and instead of playing through it, we made excuses for ourselves and sometimes you have to learn how to play in big games and this was a big hockey game,” Burckhard said. “We just didn’t do enough to get enough bounces. We didn’t move our feet well enough. I don’t think we established a forecheck the second half of the game.

Quinn Irey scored the equalizer at 8:53 of the second period on a one-timer from the left faceoff circle off a cross-ice pass from Jared Spooner. Johnny Witzke put Bismarck in front in the final minute of the second when he redirected a Stephen Dora slap shot from the blue line. It was the first time the Magicians had trailed in the tournament.

“That’s something we’ve been working hard on this year because we have some pretty good personnel,” Peluso said. “This year we have some high-skilled guys who can do some different things. They scored big goals when we needed them.”

The Demons iced the game with two goals in less than two minutes late in the third period. Cody Evanson scored the game-winner with 5:09 left, capitalizing on a Minot turnover in its defensive end. Spooner gave Bismarck a 4-1 lead with 3:12 remaining.

Mike Kraft covers high school athletics and hockey. Follow him on Twitter @MKraft23_MDN.


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Chautauqua County Home Care Association holds annual dinner

In celebration of November as National Home Care Month, the Chautauqua County Home Care Association, honored employees and guests recently gathered at the Clarion Hotel and Conference Center in Dunkirk for its annual dinner and employee recognition.

CCHCA members work to improve recruitment and retention of health care workers, share ideas and network and make improvements in the delivery of home health care. The annual dinner provides a forum for special recognition to employees throughout the county for their exemplary service to their agencies and patients.

Keynote speaker Dr. Rudy Mueller addressed the audience of 75 members about the significance and on-going need for the services home care aides provide to the elderly, chronically ill and disabled residents in the county. He also spoke about the rising costs of health care and insurance.

The Annual Service Award followed with Dana Corwin, CCHCA Interim President, presenting the award to outgoing president Lori Poniatowski. The award is given to someone in the county whose hard work, special efforts and creative ideas have improved the delivery of home care and health care services.

“Each agency has an opportunity to honor an employee who has exemplified what every agency hopes their caregiver will provide its patients – consistent demonstration of commitment to their jobs, productivity and compassion,” said Anne Massar, RN, committee chairperson.

An Employee of the Year is identified from each of the participating agencies, who is then honored at the dinner, and receives a Certificate for Outstanding Service from each of their respective agencies: Accredited Care – Debra Elliott, PCA; Aftercare – Dorothy Painter, PCA and Lori Angelo, LPN; Caregiver’s – Lesly Charles, HHA; Chautauqua Opportunities, Inc. – Patricia Campese, PCA and Gloria Carey, PCA; Hospice – Patricia Fuller, HHA; Hultquist Place – Shelly Nelson, HHA; Lake Shore LTHHCP – Cynthia Zuech, RN Case Manager; New Vision Services – Rick Tuzzo, PCA; PSA Health Care – Amy Richmond, LPN; Visiting Nurse’s Association – JoAnn Neal, RN

The group of local agencies work collaboratively with the county Department of Social Services and the Office for the Aging to provide home care services to individuals in need throughout the county. Home Care has proven to be an especially effective and economical avenue to meet the health care needs of a growing number of individuals. Members are available to speak to groups and share information about available home care and services. The association also presents two scholarships each year to potential nursing school graduates from JCC.

The County Home Care Association is a coalition made up of the county’s home care agencies: Accredited Care, Aftercare, Amedisys, Chautauqua Opportunities Inc., Caregivers, Hospice, Hultquist Place, PSA Healthcare, TLC Health Network, the Visiting Nurse’s Association, the WCA Home, and Willcare, as well as the Department of Social Services CASA unit and the Office for the Aging.


text:
Fredonia Escapes With B-2 Win

For the third straight year, the Fredonia Hillbillies were crowned Section 6 Class B-2 baseball champions on Wednesday.

And though it wasn’t pretty, a win is a win.

The No. 1 Hillbillies took advantage of four Akron errors in a 6-2 victory at Diethrick Park.

“We dodged a bullet today,” Fredonia coach Vince Gullo said with a sigh of relief. “They gave us all we could handle. We held a good team to a couple runs. Our defense was phenomenal.”

Fredonia made several web gems in the field and its stellar defense shined again Wednesday as it has only made one error in three playoff games.

Jude Gardner made the first phenomenal defensive play on the first pitch of the game as Akron’s Zack Fentner hit a gap shot to left field. Gardner charged in on the ball and made a sensational diving catch.

In the fourth inning, the Tigers loaded the bases with one out. Trevor Fostor hit a line drive down the first-base line, but Fredonia’s Chris Saden made a diving snag and then dove to first base to tag up Noah Diegel for an unassisted, inning-ending double play.

“That saved us,” Gullo said. “We were really reeling at that time. Weston (Ley) was throwing hard. For him to make that play was a momentum saver and that saved us.”

The Hillbillies got their first run in the first inning as Nick Hart walked, advanced to third on an error and scored on Gardner’s sacrifice fly.

The score remained 1-0 until the fifth inning when Akron put two runs on the board following two straight walks and two singles.

With runners on second and third, Ley was able to strike out the heart of Akron’s order to escape the jam.

The Tigers loaded the bases in the fourth, fifth and sixth innings and could manage just two runs.

“We couldn’t come up with the clutch hit when we needed,” Akron coach Greg Bell said. “We couldn’t get bunts down. My 3-4-5 hitters go down looking. Kudos to Fredonia. They made some great defensive plays and clutch hits late.”

After Akron scored two runs in the top of the fifth inning, the Hillbillies responded with four runs in the bottom half. Ley and Buckley led off with consecutive base hits and Gardner reached on an error to load the bases. Cameron Voss hit an RBI sacrifice fly to plate Ley. Buckley crossed home plate on pinch-hitter Seb McAfee’s RBI single. Gardner scored on an error and Matt Sheridan scored when Cody Smith reached on an error to make the score 5-2.

“We had timely hits,” Gullo said. “Seb McAfee scored and got a big RBI. Voss had a couple RBIs. Guys came through when we had to. We didn’t lose an inning.”

Fredonia tacked on an insurance run in the sixth as Buckley led off with a blast to deep left field which hopped once before hitting the fence roughly 330 feet from home plate. Buckley would score on an RBI single from Voss for the 6-2 victory.

“We have made one error in the playoffs and that’s what championship teams do and that’s a positive,” Gullo said. “We live to fight another day. We need games like this from time to time. We been in these situations before. We came through and we have a bunch of winners on the team. We can take a deep breath now. Everything after this is gravy.”

NOTES: Nick Hart finished the game 2-for-2 with two walks. Buckley had two hits with a double and reached on a walk to score two runs. Fredonia plays the winner of today’s Tonawanda versus Springville on Friday. The site of that game has yet to be determined.


text:
Water Street Home Damaged By Fire

The Jamestown Fire Department responded to a report of a fire just before noon Friday.

A report was called in stating that a fire had broken out at 116 Water St. at approximately 11:45 a.m. Multiple units from the Jamestown Fire Department were dispatched to the residence.

According to crews at the scene, everyone from the building was able to be evacuated safely.

There are no details at this time regarding the cause of the fire. As of noon, crews were still working to clear smoke from the residence.

Alstar EMS and the Jamestown Police Department were also on the scene for assistance.


text:
Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Comment Trail for Tuesday:

Ezra Levant Is Not Being Persecuted By The State

This is the same Ezra Levant, let’s not forget, who expressed rather less than absolute support for the free speech rights of nutcase Vancouver imam Younus Kathrada not long ago. Not charging Kathadra, who’d been giving out of himself about Jews being related to monkeys and pigs and so on, would be a misguided act of political correctness, Levant wrote. “He should be made an example of, not have excuses made for him. Justice calls for it.”

This same Ezra Levant is himself not above bullying when it comes to the free speech rights of people who think he’s a jerk. As Warren Kinsella puts it: “The fraud, in this case, is my friend Ezra Levant. He is full of crap, actually.”

My comments:

I: What you rather conveniently left out is that the allegation Levant levelled against Kathadra was that he “repeatedly called for the killing of Jews” - utterances that should, by Levant’s own standard, be allowable speech.”

Levant writes:

Officer McGovern asked if I thought there should be any limits to free
speech under our constitution. Of course there should be, and I listed a
half-dozen examples. But I drew a distinction between criminal or tortious speech and political speech. I also pointed out that free political speech isn’t just protected in a liberal democracy — it protects a liberal democracy. That’s because it acts as a “safety valve” for people who want to change society. They don’t have to resort
to arms.”

At exactly one minute into this clip, I describe the Canadian legal test that governments must meet before they’re allowed to override freedom of speech — it’s called the Oakes Test. Officer McGovern nods her head in agreement.”

Of course the question is whether “repeatedly call[ing] for the killing of Jews” is tortious speech or political speech. And is it comparable to publishing cartoons that mock one’s religious icon?

I believe that is really the gist of his beef, that the “process is the punishment”.

Imagine members of this blog being ordered to explain to a governmental authority, either in person or in writing, why they posted a picture of Muhammad Teddy bear which some Muslims found offensive and deliberately hateful, or something.

The question is actually simpler than that. It’s whether Levant was right
at all in characterizing Kathadra’s statements that way,”

“DIANA SWAIN (HOST) :Police in Vancouver say they have been aware for some time of hateful comments attributed to this Muslim cleric. A voice believed to be that of Sheik Younus Kathrada is heard on tape pledging support for the killing of Jews. As Chris Brown reports, while police say an investigation is ongoing, some Jewish groups are demanding immediate action.
CHRIS BROWN (REPORTER) :He is accused of preaching a message of hate. Younus Kathrada, a cleric originally from South Africa, he is the leader at Vancouver’s Dar al-Madinah Islamic Society and now the subject of a hate crime investigation by the RCMP.

RCMP OFFICER :I can tell you that we were aware of some of the comments that were made. And that they were disturbing to us.

CHRIS BROWN (REPORTER) :The comments attributed to Younus Kathrada were references to Jews and the conflict in the Middle East. They were contained on an audio file posted on the mosque’s website.

SHEIK YOUNUS KATHRADA (LEADER OF DAR AL-MADINAH ISLAMIC SOCIETY) :(Tape recording) “We are dealing with the people, the brothers of the monkeys and swines, people whose treachery is well known.”

CHRIS BROWN (REPORTER) :Later in the lecture, the speaker quotes passages from the Koran that he claims urges Muslims to fight and kill Jews.

SHEIK YOUNUS KATHRADA (LEADER OF DAR AL-MADINAH ISLAMIC SOCIETY) :(Tape recording) All Muslims, slaves of Allah, (…) behind me is a Jew, then come and kill him. It is not meant to be understood metaphorically, but rather literally.”

Looks like Kathadra benefited from the Oakes Principle: the onus was upon the police to prove that when he was reciting verses from the Quran that extol the murder of Jews, he was aiming at the same Jews he earlier called “apes and pigs”. And they could not meet the onus, apparently. They asked him what his intentions were, and he said he only meant Israeli Jews. Well, that’s quite another matter, isn’t it? In that case, he is not in breach of the hate laws.

Barenboim's citizenship (Jogo guest post) (Bob From Brockley)

A guest post by Jogo

... In Israel [Barenboin] aligns himself with the most extreme pro-Palestinian positions, which necessarily entail a certain degree (a lot, a little) of anti-Israel position. The only excuse he can have is IF he sincerely believes that his efforts are in the interest of a long-enduring, peaceful and safe Israel. Perhaps he has reasons to believe this.

But ... do his friends on the Pal side also wish for a long-enduring Israel, let alone a peaceful and safe one? Many, perhaps most, do not.

My problem is that I see Barenboim and Marwan Barghouti as having differing views on the meaning of Barenboim's honorary citizenship and passport from the Republic of Palestine.

(read more here)

My comment:

"..the everlasting bond between the Palestinian and Israeli people."

is really not something that should be symbolized or perpetuated. He should have been more honest about it and speak of the bond between HIM and the Palestinian people, via his cooperation with Edward Said. There is no other bond to speak of between Palestinian and Israeli peoples except a bond of mutual enmity, which I'm sure he didn't mean to imply.

Barghoutti is much more honest in what he wants to get out of this "symbolic" act.

Whatever respect I had for Barenboin disappeared when he forced Wagnerian music on an Israeli audience, because HE considered it was time for Jews to move on beyond Wagner's Nazi connotations. That was another grandiose gesture which had little to no effect, and applauded by those who delight in spiting the pain of Holocaust survivors.

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Rescue+Press Call for Submissions

I don’t post this sort of this too often, but since Hilary Plum is involved, this is definitely something aspiring writers should check out. Here’s the deal:

This winter Rescue Press will consider book-length prose submissions for our new Open Prose Series, which will publish one work a year of nonfiction, fiction, or sui generis prose.
open prose dancers

This series will support singular prose works and the wider discussion of contemporary literary prose. We invite you to submit a manuscript to our open reading period between January 1 and January 31, 2013. There is no fee for submission nor are there restrictions on who may submit. All submissions will be reviewed by series editors Hilary Plum and Zach Savich, who will work with the editors of Rescue Press to select a manuscript for publication. We expect to make a decision by April 2013.

Please send submissions to along with a biographical note and a brief statement about your work. Manuscripts should be sent as .pdf, .doc, .docx, or .rtf attachments.

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The Surrender is Scott Esposito’s “collection of facts” concerning his lifelong desire to be a woman.

Two long essays of 10,000 words each on sex in—and out of—literature . . .

The first essay dives in to Nicholson Baker’s “sex trilogy,” explaining just what Baker is up to here and why these books ultimately fail to be as sexy as Baker might wish.

From there the book moves on to the second essay, which explains just why Spaniard Javier Marías does right what Baker does wrong . . .

5 essays. 2 interviews.

All in all, over 25,000 words of Latin American literary goodness.

3 never-before-published essays, including “The Digression”—a 4,000-word piece on the most important digression in César Aira’s career.

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January 24, 2017, 11:12:08 AM

Author Topic: Republican Debate on Fox  (Read 830 times)

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Republican Debate on Fox
« on: August 07, 2015, 11:39:31 AM »
I personally was not impressed.  Bunch of one liner digs as Obama and Hillary.  No real solutions offered.

More military.
Lower taxes.
Pro life.
Undocumented immigrants.

Same old Republican speak.

I did enjoy Fox trying to blow up Trumps presidential bid though.  That was funny.


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Home > Press Page

Tuesday, August 3, 2010—The Cook County Sheriff’s Office is joining forces with area communities for this year’s National Night Out Against Crime, Sheriff Tom Dart announced Tuesday.

CCSO is co-sponsoring Maine Township’s National Night Out, which begins at 6:30 p.m. at Dee Park, 9229 Emerson Rd.  Participating departments include the Bomb Unit, Hostage Barricade and Terrorism Unit, Gang Crimes Unit,  K-9 and Community Policing.  There will also be an interactive 911 display and information on CCSO’s Cell Phones for Seniors program.

The Sheriff’s Office will also be participating in Oak Forest’s National Night Out, with the Gang Crimes Unit speaking about criminal activity in the municipality and across the Southern Suburbs.  The event takes place at Fire Station #1, located at City Hall, 155th & Central Ave., starting at 6:30 p.m.

Additionally, the Jail Diversion and Crime Prevention Program will be working with Explorer Boy Scouts to bring Safety Town to Berwyn’s National Night Out.  Children will learn about basic travel safety at the interactive exhibit, with push-pedal cars and toy houses.  Information on CCSO’s anti-violence programs will be available, along with giveaways for kids.  Location: Morton West High School, 2400 Home Avenue, from 5 p.m. – 9 p.m.

National Night Out is a nationwide crime and drug prevention initiative with the goal of strengthening relationships between police and communities.

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Visit Croatia: Charter a Private Yacht with Gulet Cruises

by anonymous

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One of the greatest vacation experiences is taking a Mediterranean cruise. Many cruise lines offer great deals, special itineraries, and other drawing cards to using their company. From the budget to the luxury, there is no shortage of cruise options for the Mediterranean. For the discriminating cruiser, selecting the right cruise line for the best vacation is an absolute must. This is where Gulet Vacations come in. For the best quality, yacht style cruising filled with impressive itineraries, Gulet Cruises offer a top cruising vacation for a select number of people to some of the best, most beautiful places in the region.

A Gulet Cruise, like many other cruises, pride themselves on great customer service and providing guests with a luxurious experience. From private charters to cabin rentals, the ships in the Gulet fleet offer plush accommodations maintained by a well-trained, knowledgeable, and attentive staff. Priding themselves in small group accommodations, the people at Gulet Cruises are highly skilled in providing the best experience in a luxury environment. Your every need will bee seen to as the staff anticipates with ease the necessities for having a perfect cruising experience.

Gulet Cruise Lines offers many itineraries in the Mediterranean region. Croatia cruises have consistently been at the top of the list for many visitors. The beauty of the Croatian coastline blended with the comforts of the ship give travelers an experience of a lifetime. When touring croatia gulet cruises has over 60 gulets to choose from. Spend a fantastic holiday hopping from island to island and exploring a new destination each day of your cruise. From the charm of Dubrovnik to the calling of Split, Croatia has much to offer the history buff, beach dweller, and adventure seeker. With luxury and budget options available throughout the fleet, Gulet cruises know how to throw a party in Croatia.

Budget friendly cabin charters offer an affordable option while a luxury yacht rental is the way to go if price is no option. Private charters are popular with this region of the Mediterranean as Croatia is a perfect country to spend time with family and friends. The size of the ships allow passengers to ride close to the coastline getting visitors close to some of the best seascapes in the world. With many different choices for cruising Croatia, Gulet cruises provides the best of the best for travelers of all styles.

A Mediterranean cruise is one of the most thrilling of all European vacations. Make yours better by chartering a private yacht with Gulet Cruises.

For more information about Gulet Cruisesvisit this Website

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Potato Cutter – Making Your Job Easier

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Love potato meals? Want to try making some special potato dishes at home? If you’re interested in making some popular potato recipes then you would certainly need potato cutters right in your kitchen. We all know how time consuming and tiresome it is to peel potatoes. Hence, some experts have come up with several specialized cutters that can easily perform many different kinds of tasks with ease and in just minutes.

Potato peelers are made from stainless steel and come with a cutting blade which can effectively cut as well as peel potatoes like the fruits with much convenience. A tornado potato peeler is quite popularly used in different parts of the world to make deep fry taters or tornado fries as these dishes are certainly fun and interesting to east.

If you love to try one of the tastiest, newest snacks then you must go for tornado fries. Believe me or not, you are sure to get hooked. If you are planning to get your tornado fries then think again. It would be much better to try it at home instead. You can easily create tornado fries at your own kitchen.

Perhaps, if you have your family looking for something new in deserts and are going rampant. Serve them these deep fried deserts. When you have the tornado potato cutter at your kitchen you can easily prepare the tornado fries with ease. Just get the chip stix and serve them the deep fried deserts.

A potato spiralcutter helps you to get the right outcome. You will get really thin cuts with the use of a quality spiral potato cutter. Moreover, such a cutter can help to cut evenly when compared to the other sharp knives. Nevertheless, it is also easier to cut and handle.

As a matter of fact, the user can easily change the peeler to cut the potatoes into the desired thickness. This also depends on what you actually wish to prepare. It is also possible to prepare slices which one desires for preparing a range of recipes. You would definitely find that cooking could never be such fun. This is only possible with the use of a valuable and simple device.

With a lot of varieties available in the market, you can easily get one for yourself to peel vegetables, fruits and potatoes with lot ease. Most of these peelers include a base which allows the peeler to fasten to the kitchen counter which can easily be ready for use. Most of these appliances are one of its kinds and come in a wide variety of colors to choose from. You can easily make your own choice from the available one considering your requirements. Simple to use, you can use these appliances safely and easily.

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Get advantages of no win no fee injury claims services

by liyo89

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Accidents can happen almost anywhere and at anytime, while walking on the street, or while riding a bike, while working, on holidays or in your own house. But if you have sustained injuries in an accident that was not your mistake then you must file whiplash injury claims for your pain and sufferings against the culprit. Right after an injury a person and his/her family faces many problems like economical troubles, especially when the victim was the only breadwinner of the family. Many times their conditions become worsen, thus getting compensation can certainly guarantee that you will get the necessary time to completely recover your injuries and financial losses.

The term personal injury claim refers a wide array of claims that includes road accident claims, medical negligence claims, and industrial disease claims and so on. Thus to make a successful claim, engaging services from professional solicitors is a wise decision as these kinds of cases are very challenging and complicated.

Qualified solicitors are experts who have profound knowledge of all the personal injury laws that is essential to fruitfully obtain the compensation. If you take assistance of a specialist in a relevant area of personal injury law and who is experienced, then you have lofty of chances to make a satisfying compensation. Most of these solicitors work on a no win no fee injury claims services, which means not even a single penny, will be deducted from your compensation if you win the claim and if you lose then also you do not need to pay. This is one of the best plus point for you.

An experienced personal injury solicitor will be the greatest asset to a claim, as each solicitor varies according to specialist skills and cases so it is essential to have the precise one in your side. To find a professional you can take help of your friends or your family members or your colleagues. Above all internet is a great place to locate the best solicitors as here you will get numerous of online portals that are focused on personal injury cases and offer practiced services of experts.

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News Review
North Texas Tollway Authority Releases Mobile App
Posted Date: 5/23/2013

Click here to visit the NTTA App page

The North Texas Tollway Authority this week launched Tollmate, a new TollTag mobile app that is now available for Apple and Android mobile devices.
Using the app, customers will be able to:

  • Manage their TollTag accounts
  • See real-time traffic updates with an interactive map
  • Contact NTTA Customer Service
  • Contact NTTA Roadway Customer Service

The app is available for free download from Google Play and the Apple iTunes App Store.


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Thursday, September 9, 2010

Spiritual Warfare Prayer

Spiritual warfare prayer courtesy of Robert Canton Ministries

Lord Jesus, You are my Savior and my Deliverer. I thank You for dying for me on the Cross, because through Your death and resurrection, You have set me free. I renounce right now any and all allegiance that I have ever given to Satan and his host of evil spirits. I resist them and I refuse to be intimidated or be used by them in any way whatsoever. I rebuke all their attacks upon my body, my emotion, my mind and spirit in the mighty name and by the power of the shed blood of the Lord Jesus Christ.

In Jesus' name, I break the transmission of any and all satanic vows, spiritual bonds, pacts, soul ties and demonic works. I dissolve any and all curses, hexes, spells, traps, snares, obstacles, deceptions, lies, evil desires, evil wishes, hereditary seals, and every disease, infirmity and affliction from any source including my mistakes and sins by the blood of Jesus. In Jesus' name, I break and dissolve any and all evil effects or ties associated with astrologers, clairvoyants, channelers, charters, crystals and crystal healers, mediums, fortune tellers, occult seers, palm, tea leaf or tarot card readers, psychics, satanic cults, santeros, quack doctors, spirit guides, witches, witch doctors, superstitious beliefs and practices, and the new age movement. By the precious blood of Jesus, I break and dissolve all effects of participation in seances and divination, ouija boards, horoscopes, occult games, and any form of worship that does not offer true honor and recognition of the Holy Trinity and the Lordship of Jesus Christ.

I stand secure upon the promises in the power of the Cross of Calvary whereby Satan and all his cohorts became defeated foes through the shed blood of the Lord Jesus Christ. I stand upon and claim all the promises of God's Word. In humble faith, I do here and now put the whole armor of God that protects and enables me to do battle and to stand firm against the schemes and tactics of the evil one. I take the authority given to me by the Lord Jesus Christ through my baptism to tread on the serpents and scorpions and on all the powers of the evil one. In faith, I cover myself, my loved ones and all our possessions with the precious blood of Jesus Christ, Lord Jesus. I give You praise and honor and glory. You are the Victor over all evil and all glory belongs to You.

Fill me now with Your Holy Spirit and help me to become more like You. Mother Mary, I entreat you to place your mantle of protection upon me for you have crushed the head of the ancient serpent. I also ask for the protection of the Angels in heaven, the Angels of powers and virtues and healings, the Angels of love and joy and peace, the Angels of safety and protection, Sts. Michael, Gabriel and Raphael and all the legions of angels to surround me and to minister to me and my loved ones all the days of our lives. I ask this in Jesus' Name and through the power of the Holy Spirit. Amen.

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text: PDL/Graphics/AquaTerm version 0.02 ============================== This module interfaces PDL directly to the AquaTerm Mac OS-X graphics terminal. It is primarily intended for quickly and easily displaying pdls as bitmap images. If all you desire is to be able to call AquaTerm functions from Perl you might instead be interested in Graphics::AquaTerm, currently distributed along with AquaTerm itself from SourceForge. INSTALLATION To install this module type the following: perl Makefile.PL make make test make install DEPENDENCIES This module requires the AquaTerm graphics display program available from Sourceforge and a reasonably recent version of the PDL module. sourceforge.net/projects/aquaterm/ COPYRIGHT AND LICENCE Copyright (C) 2005 Hazen Babcock This library is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the same terms as Perl itself.


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Sunday, April 6, 2014

Revisiting Texas's Electrical Power Predicament—Part 3

I hadn't intended there to be a part 3—but I would like to share three interesting pieces of news that nicely fit in with some themes of this series, and, I have a bit of free time on my hands this weekend to write about it.

The Bankruptcy and Restructuring/Breakup of Energy Future Holdings

Energy Future Holdings, Texas's largest power provider, came into existence in 2007 with a $45-48 billion leveraged buyout of TXU Corporation, as brokered by the likes of KKR, TPG and Goldman Sacks.  Overvaluation of TXU's assets, especially in the face of the subsequent economic depression of 2008 and continued low energy prices (thanks to the fracking boom), has made it impossible for EFH to repay the increasing debt burden associated with the LBO, and now, bankruptcy looks inevitable (see, Greed doomed the TXU buyout).  The recent departure of KKR CEO, Marc Lipschultz, for the Board of Directors of EFH probably signals a likely Chapter 11 restructuring of EFH's assets.

EFH is the parent of three subsidiaries: Oncor, which handles electricity transmission to 3 million customers, TXU energy, the states' largest electricity retailer, and Luminant, which generates about 18 percent of Texas' electricity, at least in the summer months.  Both Oncor and TXU energy look economically viable, and therefore, are attractive subsidiaries to buy.

As I wrote in Part 2, Luminant owns five of those old coal-fired electricity generating plants, some of which have been getting mothballed during the winter month, and, which are too unprofitable, at least a today's energy prices,  to retrofit to comply with the Clean Air Act requirements.  Those five plants have a name-plate capacity of about 8000 MW which correspond to about 11-12 percent of Texas power generation capacity at any given time during the summer months.

There is speculation (In Energy Future Holdings shakeup, size matters) that a restructuring would go easier if the coal-fired plants were to be split off from Luminant's nuclear and natural gas, and, further speculation, that as part of a restructuring, those coal fired plants will not just get mothballed, but torn down.  I wonder who would want to buy Luminant if the maintenance or retrofitting these five plants was part of the deal (even a tear down of these plants would be very expensive, I think).

If the closure of these five plants were to happen, however, then ERCOT's summer power reserve margins would get blown away.  For instance, a loss of 8000 MW of power generating capacity would drop ERCOT's previously expected reserve margin from 13.6%, for the summer of 2014, to only 1-2%.  Under this scenario, I would expect that that there would be multiple rolling blackouts, and a spike in electricity prices, this summer.

Does the fate of Texas' coal plants and potential permanent loss of 8000MW of power have ERCOT worried or sounding the alarm?   Why no, quite the opposite.

ERCOT'S Revised Load and Reserve Margin Forecast
In a dramatic turn-around from its previous forecast of May 2013, Capacity-Demand-Reverse Report for 2013, in January 2014, ERCOT announced peak demand margins going forwards that implies that the possibility of rolling blackouts is remote.    There is no electrical power predicament after all.

What happened?

Instead of an annual growth rate in peak electricity of 2-3 percent/year, as predicted by ERCOT last May 2013, ERCOT's new forecast predicts 1.3±0.1 percent/year demand growth for the next decade.  This results in a dramatic increase Texas's expected reserve margin for the next several years.

What is the reason for this abrupt about-face?  ERCOT explains:

In the past, ERCOT has used weather and economic indicators, such as non-farm employment, to forecast future electric demand. However, the relationship between economic growth and electric demand has changed in recent years. While peak demand growth has slowed to about 1 percent annually, the economic forecasts and non-farm employment statistics used in recent load forecasts have resulted in growth forecast estimates of 2 to 3 percent in the two- to three-year outlook.

This recent trend implies a less direct correlation between these economic indicators and electric demand than in the past. To address this decoupling, ERCOT staff has developed a new load forecasting model that uses forecasted growth rates in customer accounts, or premises, to project future growth trends in each region served by the ERCOT grid.

In short, ERCOT's new model assumes a decoupling between electricity demand growth and economic indicators, such as employment, and instead now looks at growth rates in customer accounts or premises to predict future electricity demand.

In a another publication describing this new method of future load forecasting (based on a neural network model) ERCOT presented a figure which I think sums up their reason for adopting a new model (Figure 5):

As you can see, starting from the mid 1990s, there has been an increased decoupling between electricity demand and GDP.  ERCOT attributed this to things like increasing efficiency of electrical devices (think light bulbs), declining energy use per customer and improvement in electricity distribution.  But maybe there are other reasons as well.

Based on this new model, at the end of February 2014, ERCOT came out with its latest Capacity Demand and Reserves Report (CDR)—the report being released four months earlier than previous in years.  In particular, a new Summer Summary prediction for demand, capacity and margins, reproduced in Figure 6 below, reflects the new margin and peak demand estimates.

The result of the new model is a prediction of much higher reserve margins than previously forecast.  For instance, the reserve margin (red) is predicted to actually go up to 15.4% in 2015, and, it doesn't drop below 13% until after 2018.  In contrast, the May 2013 CDR (Figure 4) had predicted the 2018 margin to be 9.4%.  Notable, 13.75% has long been considered an acceptable target reserve margin by ERCOT.

With peak demand growth assumed to be 1.3 percent/year, the Feb 2014 CDR predict a peak power demand (blue) of 71806 MW by 2018, which is ~4400 MW lower than the peak power demand of 76186 MW by 2018, predicted in the May 2013 CDR.

Moreover, this increased margin is in spite of the 2018 total power resources being lowered from 80760 MW, as predicted in the May 2013 CDR, to a predicted 79575 MW in the Feb 2014 CDR.

Brattle Group Report (BGR)
Commissioned by the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), this report published at the end of January 2014 attempts to estimate the "economically optimal reserve margin for ERCOT’s wholesale electric market."

The bottom line of the BGR is that, from an economic perspective, a reserve margin of 13.75% is "inefficient" because it is designed to meet a one-day-in-10-year load loss event (0.1 LOLE)—a standard to ensure loss of power, on average, only 1 day in ten years.  Instead, the BGR recommends a new reliability standard that would be more "economically optimal."  This new standard, termed, "expected unserved energy" (EUE) standard, weighs the "total system" cost of building more power generation plants to keep the reserve margin high, versus the costs related to a "scarcity-event."  The BGR finds that only a 9-11% reserve margin is economically optimal.  The report estimates that a 11.5% reserve margin, would be insufficient to meet peak loads only once every three years.  On average, a 1600 MW short fall would only need to be curtailed for 2.6 hours on average during such "load shedding" event.

Interestingly, this report was shortly followed by a memorandum to ERCOT from PUCT commissioner Anderson questioning the need for PUCT or ERCOT to take any quick action based on this report:

If the Commission were to adopt a mandatory reserve margin, what Brattle refers to as a “reliability based standard,” they recommend the adoption of the “normalized expected unserved energy” (EUE)6 standard because it considers the magnitude and duration of events among its factors.7 Adopting a EUE approach would constitute a total redesign of ERCOT’s reliability standard, which should not be done without careful evaluation by the Commission and the ERCOT stakeholders. Analyzing the EUE recommendation should be conducted as part of a truly broad and intensive study of the appropriateness of ERCOT’s reliability standard and resulting reserve margin.

The BGR's assertion that a 10 reserve margin is contrary to the North American Reliability Corporation’s estimate of an acceptable reserve margin of 15 percent—a margin that ERCOT has not been able to attain in the past several years.

Summary and Thoughts

I don't think that it a coincidence that the early publication of ERCOT's Capacity Demand and Reserves Report, and, the publication of Brattle Group Report are being released just as Texas's largest electricity provider, Energy Future Holdings, heads into bankruptcy.

The new Capacity Demand and Reserves Report suggests much a lower rate of demand growth increase, and therefore Texas, can have "acceptable" reserve margins of 13.75%  for the next several years.  Brattle Group Report goes one further in suggesting that this 13.75% margin is way too high and could instead be 10-11% for "economic optimization."

Let's just set aside the apparent paradox of ERCOT adopting a new method of predicting demand growth that specifically does not directly consider economic indicators, and, the BGR that specifically recommends lower reserve margins based on "economic optimization."

To me these two reports may be setting the stage for a restructuring of Energy Future Holdings where those five coal-fired plants are rapidly phased out of ERCOT's power grid.  The ability to eliminate these uneconomical  coal-fired plants would make the purchase Luminant more attractive.

Still, the loss of 8000 MW of potential power provided by the five plants reduces ERCOT's summer reserve margin to only 1-2 % and that would be a problem. How can we reconcile this?

It seems like a no-brainer to say that, for at least the near future, at least some of these coal-fired plants have to be maintained and de-mothballed each summer in order to provide an acceptable margin of peak demand.

But, perhaps now in light of the new CDR and BGR, it will seem more acceptable for some plants to be decommissioned immediately or next year.

For example, consider the new CDR shown in Figure 6.  According to ERCOT, for 2014, summer resources equals 74805 MW and firm load equals 66179 MW, giving a 13.5% margin.   If one were to eliminate one or two coal-fired plants with a total capacity of about 2000 MW, then resources drops to 72805 MW, and therefore, the new margin becomes 10% which just happens to equal BGR's "economic optimum."  Likewise for 2015, if coal-fired plants with a total capacity of about 4000 MW are eliminated, then the margin again equals 10%.

In my opinion, not running one to four of these coal fired plants during the summer months would obviously increase the risk of load shedding or rolling blackout events.  Texas only needs to have a summer as hot as the summer of 2011 to test this.  Perhaps from the Battle Group Report author's perspective, cozy in their offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the prospects of industrial and residential load shedding and rolling blackouts for several days in August fall within the scope of "economic optimization."   After all, this is estimated to only be for 2-3 hours per day and only occur every 3-4 years.

I seriously doubt, however, that that the "total system"  economic repercussions of an electricity "scarcity-event" has been fully accounted for in the BGR.  For instance, will businesses still want to relocate to Texas when they hear news of several days of rolling blackouts or load shedding by  industries and residents in the summer months?  Also "economic optimization" does not necessarily mean optimal for human living.  People, especially the elderly, suffer or die in the summer in Texas when the air-conditioning goes out.   Is that considered as part of the "total system" cost?   Maybe, from an economic perspective, who cares, so long as the state government, PUCT or ERCOT doesn't have to pay for it directly.

And, what about looking further out to more than a few years?  Look again at Figure 6, for 2020 and beyond.  Even with Luminant's coal-fired plants considered as part of the summer resources and assuming only 1.3%/year peak demand growth, the reserve margin was predicted to drop below BGR's "economic optimum" of 10 percent.  What then?

With the present stricter enforcement of the Clean Air Act and other EPA rules, the prospects building of new power plants that would provide significant base load (i.e., coal, nuclear or even natural gas) in time to mitigate the reserve margin drop look very remote. The price of electricity would have to rise significantly before that would happen, I expect.  But doubling or tripling electricity prices would cause demand to go down.  And, there you have a downwards energy spiral, Texas-style.

Perhaps targeting peak demand growth to customer account growth does make more sense than using employment or other economic indicators.  After all, an unemployed Texan probably moves out of their own residence and moves in with someone else, moves out of state, or, out on to the street.  Consequently, their utility provider account gets closed. Of course, such repercussions of scenarios are really not ERCOT's problem.  Again the this reflects a difference between an "economic optimum" versus a "human optimum."

From a broader perspective, the increasing decoupling between GDP and electricity use (Figure 5), to me, just represents the increasing decoupling of GDP numbers from reality.  That is, the increased churning of digital money between parties all counts towards GDP, which increasingly, has little to do with the real physical world or  the life of the average human.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Revisiting Texas's Electrical Power Predicament—Part 2

I ended Part 1 with questions about the future of older coal fired electricity power plants and the possibility of replacing plants and expanding electricity demand as Texas's economy and population continue growing.

The demise of coal-fired plants

Back in late 2011, the owner's of Monticello coal-fired plant in Titus County, Luminant, had threaten to shut down or "idle" rather than implement costly upgrades  to put the plant in compliance with the Clean Air Act, and, ERCOT suggesting that they couldn't force Luminant to keep a plant open in violation of federal pollution rules (see e,g,m Texas power grid operator says blackouts possible).

What happened to these and similar coal fired plants?

It appears that the Monticello plant was mothballed for the winter of 2012.  The plant capable of producing 1,880 MWenough to power 0.94 million homes in normal conditions, apparently was not needed in winter months and therefore was not given a “Reliability Must Run” designation by ERCOT.  After re-opening for the summer of 2013, the plant again was mothballed for the winter, and Luminant requested to also mothball its Martin Lake coal-fired plant for the winter (A Changing Market and Dim Future for Coal in Texas).  Martin-Lake has a capacity of 2,250 MW enough to power 1.12 million homes.  Altogether, Luminant owns five coal-fired plants with a name-plate capacity of 8,017 MW—I wonder if eventually all five of these plants will get shut down during non-summer months.

Although part of Luminant's reason for mothballing the plants is stiff economic competition from power generated by natural gas plants, I think that it is the cost to comply with the EPA rules under the Clean Air Act is what will lead to the eventual demise of all of these plants.

Indeed, last summer, the DOJ, at the behest of the EPA, filed a law suit against Luminant alleging continued violations under the Clean Air Act, citing the Martin-Lake plant and the Big Brown Power Plant, located near the Dallas-Fort Worth area (Luminant hit with suit alleging Clean Air Act violations).  Luminant has argued for special protection against the Clean Air Act for violations during startups and shutdowns,and  the Fifth circuit agreed, but then, the denial of an appeal to the Supreme Court doesn't bode well for eliminating the possibility of subsequent law suits attacking this theory.

Additionally, CPS Energy, in San Antonio, appears to on track with its plan to shut down entirely the JT Deely coal-fired plant at the end of 2018, citing as the reason the high cost for environmental retrofits to comply with new emissions requirements. The Deely plant which has a power generating capacity of 871 MW will be replaced with a natural gas-fired plant.

A new coal fired plant, the Sandy Creek plant near Waco, with a 900 MW capacity, did come online in 2013.  Its opening, however, was only after a settlement with the Sierra Club who had fired a lawsuit against the plant's owner alleging violations of the Clean Act, among other things.  After years of legal battles, as part of the settlement the owners agreed to pay for stricter air pollution controls and to not build coal-fired plants in Georgia and Arkansas.  The Sandy Creek owners are still embroiled in legal battles with a company, NAES, hired to maintain and operate the plant, alleging that NAES's mismanagement damaged the plant's boiler (Sandy Creek power plant owners suing over 2011 boiler incident).

It is apparent to me that no additional, Clean Air Act Compliant coal fired-plants will be opened in Texas any time soon (if ever)  due to litigation costs, federal regulations and the present low price of natural gas (After White Stallion Power Plant Canceled, Coal Faces Dark Future in Texas).

A power vacuum

While some see this as "big win for clean air in Texas," and it probably is, I wonder how this will impact Texas's ability to meet its growing power demand. Are there any non-coal power generating projects underway to actually expand the power grid and not just replace the existing capacity produced by the coal plants being mothballed or shutdown?

In an interesting Forbes article, Will Summer Blackouts Doom The Texas Boom?, Christopher Helman gave a summary of Texas's energy status going forward.  New electrical capacity from Nuclear Power does not appear to be in the cards given the blockage of to two new Japanese Toshiba reactors.  Two 760 MW capacity gas-fired plants owned by Panda Power are scheduled to come on line in 2014, and there is a third plant scheduled to come on line in 2015.  The 540 MW natural gas-fired Ferguson power plant in Llano in 2014 will replace the old 420-MW plant which closed in the fall of 2013.  Such gas fired plant are important to ERCOT for their ability ramp up quickly when electricity demand spikes—something that wind or solar power, or, even nuclear or coal are NOT particularly good at.   Finally, Helman's article talks about another 3,000 MW of wind power set to be built by 2015.  But even if all of this wind power is built, for reasons already discussed in past articles in this blog, on a hot Texas summer day, one might only expect to get ~10% or less of the name plate capacity from wind.

That seems to be about it—about 1,500 MW in 2014, and another 1,000 to 1,500 MW in 2015, depending on how you feel about the wind power contribution you could count on in the summer.

Keeping in mind that at a peak summer power usage of around 67000- 68000 MW, and, the need to grow the capacity by about 2 percent per year, ERCOT's goal should be to add about 1350 MW capacity per year every year, just to keep it's reserve margin about constant.

But ERCOT's own Capacity-Demand-Reverse Report for 2013 shows their expectation of a shrinking reserve capacity, going forwards (Figure 4).

As illustrated (red circle), ERCOT expects its summer reserve margin to steadily decline from a margin of about 13.6% in 2014 of total capacity to 4.5% by 2023.  For comparison, the North American Reliability Corporation’s acceptable reserve margin is 15 percent, and, NARC estimate of Texas's reserve margin to be 12.9%. NARC indicated that the peak demand growth rate in Texas (about 2.7%/year) is projected to be the highest in the United States.

It is noteworthy that the growth in year-to-year summer peak demand shown in the above table (blue circle) appears to be based on (or is equivalent to) an assumption of demand growth increasing by 3 percent per year (e.g., 72071 x 100%/69807=103 %) for the next few years, and then, suddenly slowing down to less than 1 percent per year by 2021.   I don't know where these projections come from.

If I take ERCOT's 2014 "firm load forecast," and increase it by a constant 2 percent per year every year, then the reserve margin drops below 0% by 2023.  If I take that same 2014 firm load forecast and increase it by a constant 3 percent per year every year, then the reserve margin drops below 0% by 2020.  Of course, weather is the wild card, and on any one summer day, particularly hot weather could shift ERCOT into emergency load shedding.  We already know from the experience of 2011, and ERCOT's own emergency plans, that coming within ~3.4 percent of power resource capacity would trigger industrial load shedding with rolling blacks outs to follow soon afterwards.  Texas has just been lucky so far.

ERCOT has done two other things in an effort to mitigate Texas's inadequate and declining reserve power margin.

Understanding that Texas needs the summer capacity from the aging coal-fired plants like Monticello, Martin-Lake and Big Brown, ERCOT has raised its price cap on wholesale electricity, presumable to motivate owners, like Luminant, to de-mothball these plants every summer and supply an important part of the based load summer power capacity.  A coalition of these power providers are pushing for some kind of guaranteed compensation in the form of permanent cap increases to keep these plants available for summer use in the years ahead (Rolling blackouts are Texas' future without reform, generators say)

I don't see this as a workable solution, given that in 2014 the EPA wants to implement more stringent rules for CO2 emissions from existing plants, and, none of the existing plants in Texas are in compliance with such limits.  The owners of these plants, like Luminant, find the costs of retrofitting these plants with carbon capture technology "unworkable." (Texas electric grid getting greener even before EPA crackdown).

If, for example, Luminant decided that it wasn't financially worthwhile anymore to "de-mothball" the Monticello and Martin-Lake  plants for the summer and just leave them closed for the summer of 2014 and beyond, then that would drop ERCOTs power generating capacity by about 4000 MW. The 2014 reserve margin would then drop to 7.8% percent and to only 4.8% by 2016.  I'm not sure who the public would blame for the likely ensuing rolling blackouts—the EPA, Luminant or ERCOT?  Would the Clean Air Act rules be waived after a few summers with extended periods of rolling blackouts and people dying from heat exhaustion?  Perhaps we will see.

The other thing that ERCOT is doing is promoting voluntary conservation.  In 2013 ERCOT introduced a voluntary pilot program, the 30-Minute Emergency Response Service ("30-Minute ERS), for homeowners groups and commercial users to be compensated for cutting their electricity use during times of peak demand when power supplies are tight and prices spike, if, they can reduce power use by at least 0.1 MW within 30 minutes (ERCOT plan rewards electricity cuts during peak demand).  Presumably this option would be implemented at Energy Emergency Level 1, when the grids' reserve margin drops below 2300 MW.   This pilot program is still being tested, but from a November 2013 report with about 1600 potential participants it looks like the 30-Minute ERS could produce reductions of 100 to 200 MW.

With over 6 million residential smart meters installed across Texas the potential impact of some form of residential power load shedding program is much larger than this.  Residential load shedding would work best if those volunteering for the program simple have their power load shed automatically as needed by the electric utility via a smart meter. For instance, PUC of Ohio is advertising how smart meters will give customers the opportunity to "assist" PUC through voluntary “load shedding” where PUC will send signals to thermostats and other appliances to adjust the devices’ activity until another signal is delivered to restore normal activity. I would think that a special device would have to be installed so that the power company could selectively remotely control these appliances.   But perhaps a smart meter could be used to more grossly limit the total amount of power flowing into individual households.  A smart grid controlling smart meters has been proposed as a solution to mitigate Pakistan's terrible grid problems by Dell.  Pakistan is currently facing a power generation shortfall of 6000 MW which results in 8-12 hours blackouts throughout the country.

Of course, the "carrot" to volunteer for such programs will be a price reduction, or rebate, when and if your power load gets shed (ERCOT will pay homeowners to conserve electricity this summer).   Low income customer will be attracted to this, and, a partial shutdown of certain appliances is certainly preferable to full-scale rotating blackouts.  Those who can afford to pay a higher price for electricity need not worry about such inconveniences—for now.

Winter power woes

One final note that involves those those coal-fired power plants that are mothballed over the winter and the reliability of the grid.  I expect that mothballing will be a growing trend if natural-gas prices stay low and rules under the Clean Air Act become increasingly stringent and enforced.
But mothballing a significant portion of the States' steady base load capacity can start to affect power reliabilty during the winter months.  Last November 2013, a cold winter snap caused Texas to have its highest electricity use on record for the month of November of 46,931 MW on November 26. The previous month, October, had also set a new demand record of 54,710 MW for that month.  The absolute magnitude of this amount is paltry compared to the summer month's daily peak usages of 66,000-68,000 MW, but it is during the fall and winter months that power plants either get mothballed or shutdown for servicing.  Still, despite these records set in October and November, I saw no reports of the Texas power grid being stressed.

A few weeks later on December 6, about 250,000 people lost power in the Dallas Ft, Worth Area during that week—but that was due to downed frozen overhead power lines from a massive storm of freezing rain. Once again there were no reports of the power grid being stressed.

On Monday, January 6, another cold snap through Texas did cause ERCOT to issue a Energy Emergency Alert and implement “demand response" mitigation with entities that contract to reduce their electric use when needed.  What was the demand level that cause this alert?  Only 55,486 MW—just slightly higher than that October record.

Power consumption of 55,486 MW was enough to get to an Energy Emergency Alert Level 2, meaning that the reserve capacity was less than 1750 MW.  Texas was probably less than 1000 MW away from rolling blackouts, I suspect.   At the heart of the emergency was the unexpected loss of 3700 MW of power production capacity from two plants that had equipment failures due to the cold weather.  That caused ERCOT to import about 1000 MW of power from the Eastern USA and Mexico and for wholesale electricity prices to hit the cap limit set by ERCOT.

While the loss of 3700 MW from these two unnamed plants might have been a "surprise," what was not a surprise was the about 10,000 MW worth scheduled plant shut down in capacity for maintenance and mothballing.

What about the winter wind?  Well that Monday, the wind capacity at ERCOT's disposal was 17 percent of the 10,400 MW nameplate capacity, providing about 1782 MW or 3.2 percent of the grid's total power generation.  (Role of Texas wind power debated after winter emergency; Did Wind Really Save Texas from Rolling Outages?).  I think this just goes to show, once again, that wind can provide some base load capacity but that base load contribution will variable.  There still has to be enough steady base load (coal and nuclear) and variable (gas) capacity to provide a reliable power margin.  In my opinion, as the coal-fired plants get mothballed in increasing amounts, the size and reliability of this margin will diminish.

This Saturday, January 18, ERCOT issued another Level 1 energy emergency alert after yet another expected/unexplained power plant outage of 1200 MW.  As noted by one reporter, Saturday morning was rather unremarkable weather-wise, with temperatures in the 50s°F.  It is hard to imagine that this plant outage was due to equipment failure from cold weather.  Once again, a Level 1 alert is issued when the margin drops below 2300 MW, so the loss of 1200 MW from one plant was enough to drop the grid below this margin.  If this plant had gone out the week before, then there highly likely would have been rotating blackouts in Texas.

These alerts underscore just how close Texans are living near the margin for rolling blackouts—trying to walk a tight rope between high prices, federal air pollution regulations and a reliable electricity grid.

This has been my first "free" weekend since October, where I have not either been sick, working, or, both!  I will be back again, to what has become this occasional blog, as time and health permits.

4-6-2014: clean up some types and add to legend of figure 4.


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David Cronenberg Has Written a Sequel to ‘The Fly!’

The long-rumored reboot is, in Cronenberg's own words, "sort of a sequel, kinda."

William Bibbianiby William Bibbiani

Waaaaaaaaaay back in 2009 we'd heard rumors that David Cronenberg was rebooting his own classic reboot, The Fly, for 20th Century Fox. If you're having trouble remembering that far back: that was the year when Harry Potter, Transformers, Fast and Furious, X-Men and The Hangover tore up the box office. My, how times have changed…

Anyhoo, we didn't know much about David Cronenberg's new version of The Fly back then and we don't know much about it now, but Shock Till You Drop did just get a confirmation of the project from David Cronenberg's own mouth.

Quoth the Cronenberg: "'The Fly' is not exactly a remake, it's sort of a sequel, kinda. Yeah, that was a thing. I've written a script of that, and I don't know if that's going to really happen, but that has to do with Fox."

We're forced to wonder if this pseudo-sequel even acknowledges the actual sequel to David Cronenberg's The Fly, which was cleverly titled The Fly II. That film starred Eric Stoltz as Jeff Goldblum's afflicted son, and was co-written by future horror-meisters Mick Garris and Frank Darabont, amongst others. It was also not that great, although it's also not as bad as many make it out to be.

Still, the idea of David Cronenberg making a big horror movie again, even if it's just a follow-up to one of his earlier classics, is enough to get us salivating at the mouth. And then using that saliva to dissolve our food. Huh… Maybe we should get that checked out.

CraveOnline would be back with more The Fly news, but we're afraid – very afraid – that this movie will never happen.


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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Fishing You Were Here (Shaker)

Good morning ... are you ready to shake?

My second post for the!

Today I am showing you a card I made with the inspiration from Erika (a Getting Cricky DT-Sister) over at Crafty Sprouts.  Erika has the best videos and tutorials on how to make cards recently and so super easy too.  She is also hosting a challenge every two weeks, so hop on over there and see what you should enter to win.  This time around she is all about shaker cards and I am entering this card over there.  I've done one in years past and completely forgot about them until Erika refreshed my memory and this is what I came up with.  Thanks Erika!!!

 and the best part...I also turned it into an action wobble.  I wish I had time to do a video, but maybe when I come back from vacation I might.

Of course I used the Getting Cricky Summer Splashtasic stamp sets.  Also, remember, for every stamp set you purchase, Kristal donates $1 to a charity and this set benefits the Autism Research Institute.  That's another thing I love about these stamps.  I know my money is going to a worthy cause...

The SVG file is from Adams Acres as I am a designer over there also and you can get the file here.  This is her fishy file and I just made it into a shaker card.  Pretty cool, huh?  I added some green sequins to the shaker and a google eye to the fish.  I also added some white sequins and clear beads to the center for bubbles.  I distressed the edges with ink, added a ribbon out of my stash and there it is.  I hope you enjoy and head on over to Crafty Sprouts and enter her Shaker challenge.

  1. This sooo cute!! I love how you added the sequins great idea!! I love seeing all the different things you can put in the shaker cards!! I love how you made the fish so creative!! Thanks for linking up!!

    Lots of Love,

  2. Your card is so cute. I am working on my shaker card today.

    Precious Hugs

  3. Very Very Cute. How do you come up with all these cute idea's??

  4. Really cute! Did you use 1 or 2 layers of foam tape?

  5. Brenda, this shaker card is just too cute!!!

    P.S. Don't think for one minute I've forgotten your "Pay It Forward" gift -- I haven't!

  6. very cute card, I love the fish! Fabulous! Thank-you for sharing :-)

  7. great card! love the way you created the fish. TFS!

  8. This card is to cute! Great idea!

  9. Your card is "Fin"tastic. Very creative.

    Dee B

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"Evolution is on the way out" claims an article in the Education Guardian, 15 Aug 2006. A survey of over a thousand UK students by Opinionpanel Research found "more than 30% believe our origins have more to do with God than with Darwin - evolution theory rang true for only 56%." Belief in creation and/or intelligent design was highest amongst students who identified themselves as Muslim or Christian, but even 10% those who claimed no religion believed in intelligent design. The rising number of students who believe in creation is disturbing university biologists. Steve Jones, professor of genetics at University College London, recently gave a lecture to the Royal Society entitled "Why evolution is right and creationism is wrong". He has been visiting schools and teaching evolutionary biology for 20 years. For the first 10 of those he found less than one student in 1,000 expressed creationist beliefs, but now he commented, "Now in any school I go to I meet a student who says they are a creationist or delude themselves that they are."

Editorial Comment: In a recent BBC radio debate against John Mackay, Professor Steve Jones claimed that evolution was proven a century ago and there was no need to have this debate. The survey described above proves him to be wrong. Much to their frustration, evolutionists are finding that you cannot bluff all the people all the time, AND the long term results of our work in schools and universities over the past few decades is paying dividends they can no longer ignore. (Ref. education, media, surveys

Evidence News 30th August 2006


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an All Creative World site
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A Pictogram View of the Oscars

The Oscars have become a venerable (some would say tired) institution. Awarded consistently for apparently all the wrong reasons, this annual event still somehow holds our attention, to the point where it has become the platform for all kinds of riffs. Designer Matteo Civaschi of H-57 created a series of pictograms intepreting some of the hottest contenders, with the entire series available on the My Modern Met site.

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Nokia: Good Things Signpost

Not David Blaine, but it's truly magical. You decide where to point this giant signpost in the center of London.

Published on

Editor's Pick

Late last month, Nokia teamed with Swedish agency Farfar to erect the "World's Biggest Signpost" in the center of London. The 50 meter tall, six ton motorized arrow showed off the "Good Things" feature of Nokia's Ovi Maps navigation system. Nokia phone owners would input their favorite haunts to a dedicated site, the giant LED arrow would display the name and direction of the spot, and change its position to point to it.

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Nov 13, 2009
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Northwood Federal Credit Union of Philadelphia, PA has 885 members and assets of $13 million. The credit union, opened in 1943, has no full time employees and 4 part time employees , or 443 members per employee, compared to a national average of 430.

Northwood FCU

Northwood Federal Credit Union, Philadelphia

Northwood Federal Credit Union
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Philadelphia, PA 19149

Northwood Federal Credit Union of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania has been in service for more than 71 years. Its field of membership is a primarily faith-based common bond. It has the 9th fastest growing assets in Pennsylvania.

Checking services include share certificates with low minimum balance requirements.

Besides automobile loans and other kinds of borrowing, Northwood FCU can do real estate loans.

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Open Thread

In honor of New Jersey's progressive thinking in such a regressive political environment, here's a little flashback from The Daily Show:

We welcome relevant, respectful comments. Any comments that are sexist or in any other way deemed hateful by our staff will be deleted and constitute grounds for a ban from posting on the site. Please refer to our Terms of Service (revised 3/17/2016) for information on our posting policy.


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Sunday, January 3, 2010

Goodbye Leiden

Workout of the Day:

In the morning...

3 k trail run for time

In the afternoon…

Bent Row 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 superset w/ 10 x 10 kg weighted situps (rest as needed)

Strict DB press from knees 5, 5, 4, 4, 2 (rest as needed)

Willemijn drove us out to the Noordwijk dunes this morning just before daybreak where a short trail connects that town to Katwijk, 3 km away. The trail runs through the dunes, right along the coast, as is breathtaking. Actually, I’m a little upset that I didn’t run this until my last day in Holland, but better than never at all. There were lots of dips and climbs, but none too extreme. I’d estimate the biggest elevation change at around 50 feet. I finished in 11:17, clocking about a 6:20/mi pace. I felt fine afterwards—really starting to feel better on runs again. Rather than going back through the dunes we jogged back along the water where we witnessed something really special and unexpected. Just off the water there was a man with a training wand and a lead, guiding a beautiful horse in trotting circles around him. The beach was completely empty except for this man and the animal. I didn’t have my camera with me at this point, but I’m not sure a photograph could have captured it too well anyways.

After returning home for a few hours, I decided to sneak over to L.K.V. for one last session and say goodbye to the owner. I did all 8 working sets of bent rows with 70 kg, trying to maintain a low body position and strict back angle. These felt great. I kept a narrow grip to simulate the hand position of a deadlift and concentrated on pinching my shoulder blades for the duration of the movement.

The DB presses felt good as well. I kept my hand position narrow and did not rotate the weights at the top, simulating a handstand push up on a set of parralletes. My top set was at 32 kg for 2. I had hoped to get 3 at this weight, but I think the fatigue of the earlier sets had caught up with me. The place was about to close and I wasn’t giving myself quite enough rest between.

Anyways, it was officially my last day at the gym, so I took a picture with the owner and said my goodbyes to the friends I had made. Hopefully I can find a place of similar quality in Paris.

  1. Salute from New York!
    Just became a reader of this very well-organized blog(nice articles along with interesting photos/videos) and got more motivated to keep myself fit, especially in winter.
    Happy & Healthy New Year!

  2. Thanks Mikki, same to you! Glad to meet you.

  3. Hi Blair i just wanted to let u know i love the blog and all the WODs, i love doing what u create its pretty neat stuff. could u explain the db press from knees???.
    Thank u again

  4. Hi Jeremy, sorry I haven't responded sooner. The DB presses from the knees are the same motion as if you were doing a standing overhead press, just from the knees. I like to start in a kneeling position, then pick the weight off the floor and swing it to my shoulders like a clean. Then it's a press to the top. Hope this helps


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I live in northern Idaho and I'm semi retired and my first name is Steve. When I was younger I enjoyed riding bikes, mainly trail bikes. Back then we lived on a farm and my 1st bike was a Honda 55 ... more

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