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Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Back to Basics with Brooks (Max Brooks, that is)

I’ve done a lot of posts about things that can help keep you safe in the event of a zombie apocalypse - cars, amazing bunkers, and fancy schmancy modified weaponry – but there hasn’t been that much talk here about basic survival.

While having a flame-thrower, or a blimp stocked with Doritos would be great, what is it that you would actually need in those crazy days?

For that answer, I turn to the man who literally wrote the book on zombie apocalypse survival. I’m talking of course about Mr. Max Brooks.

Max has become the go-to guy for zombie survival in the last few years. With live appearances around the country and all over television, he has spread the word of true zombie survival.

So… say you have to hike from your home all the way across state to the safety of your uncle Leon’s condo. And let’s assume you don’t have access to a tank or a machine gun crossbow. What does Max say that you need?

2. Some way to collect and PURIFY water!
3. Broken-in hiking boots (blisters are not funny!)
4. Dry socks (trench foot is definitely not funny!)
5. A radio that doesn’t need batteries (and an earpiece so you’re not broadcasting to everything living and undead within earshot)
6. Some means of making fire (matches are good, flint and steel and char cloth are better)
7. Some means of self-defense (preferably something that doesn’t need reloading)
8. A first aid kit
9. A Swiss army knife or multi-tool
10. The Zombie Survival Guide — ONLY if it’s in paperback! Hey, I love e-books too, but remember, in a crisis, paper doesn’t break or simply run out of juice!

Now, I’m sure Max wouldn’t mind if I added a number 11 to his list. That, of course, being the world-famous B’hold Designs UltimateCamouflage! If you doubt it’s power, consider this…. Max himself owns one. Of course I begged him to take it, but he did! (click HERE for the whole sordid tale.)

And one more thing… remember, in a zombie apocalypse, all bets are off. As “The Walking Dead” has taught us, anyone can become undead at ANY time. Even Mr. Brooks.

Aim high. Run fast.

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Thursday, February 24, 2011

The Thursday Literary News Roundup (13)

The Thursday Literary News Roundup

Blog Posts of Note:

Imagination in Focus had a GREAT guest post this week with wonderful comments: "Chatting About YA Heroines"

The Gatekeepers Post is holding a writing contest on Wattpad - check out the impressive list of judges!  Click here for details.

Flashlight Worthy put out a list  of "The Best GLBT Young Adult Novels of the New Century".

OH. WOW.  Edward Champion's Reluctant Habits put together a list, by state, of independent bookstores located within driving distances of closed Borders: "List of Independent Alternatives to Closed Borders Bookstores"

BOO on book banning!  Special thanks to Pam at Bookalicious for bringing my attention to a recent case.  The book in question?  Scars by Cheryl Rainfield.

I absolutely loved The Book Smugglers review of the recently released The Floating Islands by Rachel Neumeier: "From a storytelling perspective, Ms. Neumeier truly shines – just as in her adult work, the world and societies that the author has created with The Floating Islands is truly remarkable stuff."

I love it when a review from another blogger can change my mind about reading a book.  I wasn't sold on Pink by Lili Wilkinson, but after reading this review at Wastepaper Prose, I'm game: "I was genuinely impressed with the depth of characterization, the careful crafting of each groups dynamics, and the development of Ava's relationship with the members of each group."

Summer Edward's Caribbean Children's Literature had a great feature on a new YA book called Minding Ben Victoria Brown.  This is a little different from the usual fare that we see - the protagonist is a teenaged Trinidadian woman who's come to the U.S. to nanny.  It releases in April.

Abigail from All Things Urban Fantasy wrote a great review for Falling Under by Gwen Hayes: "In the tradition of those aforementioned titles, FALLING UNDER is part gothic romance, part paranormal mystery, and part coming of age story.  It’s breathtakingly written in a way that I think will elevate it above most of it’s peers (excepting maybe SHIVER).  The characters, even the secondary ones, are all given dimension and distinct motivations.  I didn’t necessarily like every character, but I believed they were real."

Confessions of a Bookaholic had a wonderful review on a book I had not heard of called Mad Love by Suzanne Selfors: "Mad Love is a wonderful tale that gives a modern twist to an old mythological creature. It gave a nice spin to my own perception of Cupid and I enjoyed the stories Errol told. Alice's courage made her shine throughout this book and I enjoyed her sweet romance with Tony. If you are a fan of old legends being seen in a modern light, you will enjoy Mad Love."

Articles to Read:

Did you see The New York Times article, "Teenage Wastelands"?  Mostly about dystopian YA lit.  It wasn't too bad, but here is a well-penned response from Liz B. from A Chair, a Fireplace, and a Teacozy.

The School Library Journal reports that vamps are out for YA, but what's in?  Check it out: "Dead Teens, Space Travel the Next Big Things in YA Literature".

Four independent bookstores have joined forces in St. Louis to help spread the word about what they do for the community.

Borders customers in the U.S. weren't the only ones affected by the recent bankruptcy - check out this article from The Sydney Morning Herald.

An illuminating article from Publishers Weekly on the marketing behind the Iron Fey series by Julie Kagawa.

The L.A. Times put out a review for Strings Attached by Judy Blundell, the follow-up to the 2008 What I Saw and How I Lied.

The Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America have announced this year's 2010 Nebula Award nominees, including the ones for the Andre Norton Award for Young Adult Science Fiction and Fantasy

I just came across this recent white paper by Catherine Andronik, a veteran U.S. YA librarian.  She recounts her experience exploring Australian YA while doing research there.  I had to share this with all of you who can't get enough of the wonderful Aussie YA that's out there: "An Initial Exploration of Printz Award Winners from Outside the U.S."

A very interesting article from The New York Times titled "Blogs Wane as the Young Drift to Sites Like Twitter": "Blogs were once the outlet of choice for people who wanted to express themselves online. But with the rise of sites like Facebook and Twitter, they are losing their allure for many people — particularly the younger generation. "  Also discusses a little bit about mircobloging.  You should also check out this great reaction piece from WebProNews to the article refuting some of things said in the NYTimes article.

An interesting op-ed piece on the Amazon/state sales tax controversy from the Seattle Times.

Fan of Rebecca?  Check this out from the UK's The Guardian: "Lost Daphne du Maurier stories discovered"

Great overview from Shelf Awareness on the Tools of Change presentations - if you missed this, you should really check it out!  Lots of great discussion on e-readers, book commerce, and who readers have relationships with in the industry.

The finalists for the New Zealand Post Children's Book Awards were announced!  There are both Junior Fiction and Young Adult categories - check it out!

Some sad news.  Chronicles of Narnia executive producer and author of Hero, Perry Moore, has died of a suspected drug overdose.

Buzz: Books & Otherwise

Cover reveal!

Supernaturally by Keirsten White.

From Penguin YoungReaders: "Richelle Mead, author of the International #1 Bestselling Vampire Academy series, talks about her upcoming series BLOODLINES. Learn about who the narrator will be, which characters may be crossing over from Vampire Academy and how our new heroine is different from Rose."

According to PopCrush, The Hunger Games film will go into production this Spring (some commentary on strong female leads included, and Pop2it/Zap2it reports that actress Alyson Stoner really wants to play Katniss.  Check out the pics!

Holy crap!  Did you hear that self-published author Amanda Hocking announced that her Trylle Trilogy has been optioned for film?!

I thought this post from the Moviefone Blog was fantastic and well-timed - talks a lot about the the female coming-of-age story gaining a significant presence in film again: "Upcoming Fairy-Tale Flicks and Why Movies Are Getting Grimm"

That's it for this week, kids!  More news and fun stuff to come next week!

If you have any thoughts or suggestions for The Thursday Literary New Roundup, feel free to comment or email me at

  1. Great post! So much to read and go through :)

  2. I've been a fan of Alyson Stoner since she used to appear in the Missy Elliot vids. She is adorable. I could totally see her as Katniss.

    I don't what to think about the new tread in YA Lit. *deep sigh*

    Interesting links as per usual, Linds. Thanks for gathering them. You know I'm too opinionated for my own good, so though it may be a pain, consider adding target="_blank" after the link so I don't have to leave your blog to check out the links. Before I know it, one article leads to another to another, and then to get back I have to crawl through a mess of jumble. LOL

    Gawd, I'm lazy. Sorry. :D

    Next time I'll keep my big mouth shut.

  3. So much to check out this week! Thanks for sharing :)

  4. Missie! Use tab browsing :) I always have a million tabs open after reading through Linds's Roundups.

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For sale: 12o'clock 29er 710mm Flat Bar - Superlight ~`approximately 199grams

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Material Aluminum
Width 710-750mm

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Username DaveCN
Since 31 December 2011
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Location Pulau Pinang


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Wednesday, September 03, 2003

Sometimes I cringe in the morning when I go to get on my bike. I am not a morning person.

Unfortunately my body/mind does not agree with what I think, because I wake up early mostdays, before my alarm goes off at 7 am, that early or eralier on the weekends. I glory in the saturdays or sundays when I actually sleep till 8, 9, or heavenly 10 am. Instead I have to go to bed early to get my sleep. Bed at 9 or 10 pm sucks. What all this does is make we want to be in bed in the morning, and getting on a bicycle to ride 5 miles is not mentally exciting. About halfway into the ride I perk up, only to realize that I am halfway to work, my work environment.

I have come to believe that it is not work that I dislike, because I am involved in what I do and am passionate about my field at times. And I am smart and I do a good job, so it is not an issue of the work itelf. But it is the "going" to work that I dread, and I don't know how to change that in me. So the bike riding may be a deterrant but it is not the root, even if I would be driving I would be experiencing the same feelings.

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text:
A Continuation of Lost Thoughts

A collection of thoughts captured from my mind and vividly displayed on screen in poem form.

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Location: Newburgh, Indiana, United States

I'm a 29 year-old wannabe writer, who enjoys a good dream. I'm also a big proponent of drinking liquid magic shell. My taste buds are partial to caramel, but any ol' flavor will do.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

The Wrongdoing

He was premium light lager -
Brewing in the confines of my mind.
I stole him from refrigeration
With a muggy headiness looming…
Better to take than smear salt

Into the burn - that would hurt
Like a cat scratch, and linger, like
A faint wail in a Hitchcock matinee.
I can’t justify the Miserere.
It doesn’t taste like beer because

It’s ancient, like Mother Teresa.
That’s my excuse, I say before
You feel the incinerating burn.
A perspective on deep dark sins
Requires a placating grip on

The reality of the world -
It’s raped time like an unwrapped
Gift, given to you on the 25th,
Only for you to spout it up, allowing
The insides to settle in remorse.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Room #4157

Living in code blue, without a pot to piddle in.
Man’s largest toilet, dotted by the Dogwood, idles
Outside with shaken leaves made for wiping.
I can’t race to the wilderness. I can’t jog. I surely can’t fly.
The loss confounds my mind. So, I’ll stud my eyebrow with a

Hobnail. The transformation is quite becoming.
These four white walls are made for breaking down.
I never knew how to crack up before this accidental discovery.
Smash, teeter, and fall, and all the doctors couldn’t put it
Back together again. Maybe a pill? A blue one, of course!

It tastes like a stale peppermint with a chalky aftertaste.
Where are my house slippers? The ones you bought for my visit?
Sideways and up your rump roast, most likely, so I shall not
Race into the wilderness. I still have my broken sole -
Now fire poker red, and dripping, mimicking a leaky spout.

It’s soon to be the great Niagara! Dogcatcher! Code red!
I’m beginning to itch forth another solution for the heartache -
You must excavate the pain, then suture up the buttercup,
Or all the blood will drain to my feet. Tell me, then.
How will I run? How will I jog? How, ever will I fly?

Friday, July 18, 2008

The Auction

Going, going, gone!
To the most sincere bidder,
The penny worth a luxury or more
With its copper profile - a man for sure!

They wheel and deal the woman
On the chopping block. And believe
They can buy her for what she’s
Worth, and sell her for what she
Thinks she’s worth - a ten-cent piece!

Humbly. They knock her up for scoring,
And proclaim the purest love, she’ll
Find a suitor for eternity, unless
The emancipator calls for her first.

Freedom or shag-dom, the auction
Doesn’t foresee. Coinage
Is the rate for beauty, the debutante.
Buy a gumball, buy a girl,
Spend wisely, unless you think you’re hers.

Monday, July 14, 2008

The Land of Sour Milk and Honey

I set myself up, by putting
Myself out
Amongst mealy-mouthed mosquitoes,
The parasites chomping the spit, spat out
Relishing in her disgrace.

A cake, a candle, a celebration
Is in order. Or perhaps a funeral.
Black dresses and black suits adorn
The congregation in attendance.
Blasphemy! Maybe a hymn?

May she quiver in quietism, below
Ground, while the misses and misters
Hover above her casket, her cake
Missing the piece they ate
In her token honor. Her pink

Negligee torn. A game piece. Spent on a machine
Called life. The ambivalent attitudes
Forego the special occasion.
Babies to attend to. Sockets to
Fiddle with. Might I electrocute myself?

Saturday, July 12, 2008

The Separation

Some people like to pull out the nail, only
To ram it back in, with splinters
Slicing the skull, my skull into
Shards of hard knock luck.

I hide all hammers, your hammer
Inside the safety deposit box
For safekeeping, my well-being -
You can’t find it there

Or my screwball effort to save the
Flotsam as it bends out of reach
Too far away for the withering fingertips
That long to make a deep indention in

Your left cheek. I leave you unscathed.
So much for wishful thinking, or cathartic
Means of reconciliation, like replacing
The cap on an empty container of lighter fluid.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The Yo-Yo Law of Gravity

Abandoning another attempt at poetry, she sinks into a place of inner frustration, contemplating the advantages of being down, for what has crashed to the linoleum must rise to the ceiling, says the yo-yo law of gravity. Down works sympathetically with up, toying with the momentum of her emotions in this sudden state of vocabulary depletion. She thinks this instance of down could be her final destination, never to dwindle up toward the high mindset of triumphant literary accomplishment. Perhaps, she will sink even lower, down to depths where complete sentence structures become stagnant, and eclipsed thoughts shudder without fulfillment. These tiresome ideas dissipate as the fluidity of her prose begins again, one word connecting itself to the next to form notions she can comprehend in the onset of light. To find it once again, and continue the forces, which bring up and down together, creates balance in her life. She carries on writing, remembering the prior blankness when she thinks to stop and recall when time stood still in the night.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Life's Blueprint

I scheme to find self
And reconcile
With chromatic years
Lost to black and blue
Marks from a grand
Design called the higher
Deity’s plan

Had it all been
In my outstretched palms
I could have
Would have
Raised my own bars
Felt a little more love
Written a few more poems
Designed a dozen more layouts
And sung a better tune

To name a few items
On the “never-could-do” list

If the takers morphed
Into givers
A missing piece
Or two
Or three
Might be illuminated
In the shade of
Former misery

Or at least the body
Might seem half soulful
Instead of half empty


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GOP prescription of minority outreach forgotten with Trump

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FILE - In this Aug. 1, 2016, file photo, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a town hall event in Columbus, Ohio. On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration four years later, the authors of the Republican National Committee’s 2013 “Growth and Opportunity Project” concede their report is little more than an afterthought. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Together, they delivered a post-election autopsy with a dire prediction: Republican survival requires embracing a message of tolerance and respect in an increasingly diverse United States.

Yet on the eve of Donald Trump's inauguration four years later, the authors of the Republican National Committee's 2013 "Growth and Opportunity Project" concede their report is little more than an afterthought as members gather in Washington to celebrate their party's success. The authors tell The Associated Press they continue to believe the GOP must improve its standing with women, Hispanics and black voters in the age of Trump, but they disagree on a path forward.

One of the five authors quit the Republican Party to protest Trump. The others stayed, but as their party prepares to control the White House, House and Senate for the first time in nearly a decade, they have abandoned any sense of urgency to address Republicans' persistent struggles with women and minorities.

"I don't think there's an issue. Trump won," said Glenn McCall, an African-American committeeman from South Carolina who helped write the section of the report that said: "The Republican Party must be committed to building a lasting relationship within the African-American community year-round, based on mutual respect and with a spirit of caring."

Regarding women, outgoing RNC co-chair Sharon Day says, "We're good."

Trump's poor showing with female voters last fall, she said, was a simple byproduct of a unique election. "You had a man running against a woman," Day said. "I'm not concerned about anything."

Party leaders suggest their brand will benefit from the looming election of Ronna Romney McDaniel, who is expected to become the first woman elected to lead the RNC on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the undisputed leader of the GOP, Trump, has refused to soften his tone.

Only this past weekend, the president-elect lashed out at civil rights legend John Lewis as the nation prepared to celebrate Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday. The incoming president, responding to criticism from the Democratic congressman, called Lewis "all talk" and charged without evidence that his Georgia district is "crime-ridden" and "falling apart."

Another author of the report, veteran Republican strategist Sally Bradshaw, determined there is no path forward with Trump in the White House.

"I still stand by the report, and so much so that I left the party over Donald Trump's treatment of women and minorities," Bradshaw told the AP. "That report was a roadmap for long-term sustained wins by Republicans — celebrity and anger really aren't much of a long-term strategy. Absent engaging with the changing demographic make-up of our nation, any GOP victory is likely short-lived."

Bradshaw, who most recently served as chief strategist for Jeb Bush's failed 2016 presidential bid, now runs a bookstore in Florida.

Another author, former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, has given up hope that Trump will adopt a "welcoming and inclusive tone," as he called for in the autopsy.

"It ain't happening. At least not for Donald Trump," Fleischer said.

Trump's 2016 success, he said, came from his unique ability to expand the Republican electorate by winning over new white working-class voters. His performance with women and minorities, however, was little better than Mitt Romney's underwhelming showing four years ago.

"Donald Trump was able to come in and expand the party in a way that nobody anticipated," Fleischer said. "That doesn't change demographics. And the Republicans' central issue remains: America is becoming more diverse. And Republicans have got to expand in order to be successful."

Trump won the presidency by the narrowest of margins.

The president-elect lost the popular vote by more than 2.9 million votes, but he scored the necessary electoral votes with the help of unexpected victories across the industrial Midwest. He won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a combined 82,000 votes out of roughly 13 million cast.

Trump struggled in swing states with larger minority populations, losing Colorado and Nevada where the Hispanic population is booming. And his margin of victory in Texas and Arizona, traditional Republican strongholds with large minority communities, was narrower than that of any other Republican presidential contender in at least two decades.

Among African-Americans, Trump got 8 percent of the vote, slightly better than Romney's 6 percent against President Barack Obama, according to national exit polls.

For now, at least, the glass is half-full.

"Frankly, there's a lot that those of us who wrote the report could have learned from Donald Trump," said another author, Henry Barbour, a Republican national committeeman from Mississippi. "Be more the party of working-class folks."

Yet Barbour described the report's conclusion that the GOP must improve its standing with minority voters "a fundamental truth."

"Trump's come a long ways in that regard," Barbour said. "And he's made plain he wants to be the president for all of America. I'm encouraged. I think we're making pretty good progress."

Trump will take the oath of office Friday as the least popular incoming president in at least four decades, according to polls.

Perhaps more disturbing to some Republican strategists is Trump's standing among women.

National exit polls showed that Trump lost women overall by 13 points last fall. Fleischer noted that he was the first Republican nominee to lose college-educated white women in the modern political era.

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Bill Totten's Weblog

Monday, July 02, 2007

Building on Kyoto

A critical assessment of George Monbiot's scheme for a ninety per cent cut in carbon emissions. Given the psychological grip of capitalist consumption patterns, and the forces blocking attempts to tackle climate change - fossil fuel lobby, heavy industry, airlines - what is the best strategy for environmental action? Can ambitious targets and moral exhortations bring any improvement on existing treaties?

by Clive Hamilton

New Left Review 45 (May - June 2007)

George Monbiot has attained an iconic status among English-speaking progressives. His ability to see through the sophistry of governments, corporations and their various apologists has provided us with a range of new political insights. In recent years he has devoted many of his columns in the Guardian to the defining problem of our era, climate change, exposing the cant of politicians and dirty dealing of the fossil fuel lobby, deploying both forensic research skills and elegant prose. Monbiot's book on climate change was therefore keenly anticipated by his readers. Like all of those who truly face up to the implications of climate change science, Monbiot is exasperated at the timidity of those in government who claim to take global warming seriously. Even environmentalists, he suggests, refuse to confront the enormity of the task.

Heat is Monbiot's search to find the answer to climate change. {1} Over several chapters he considers the problem areas - energy wastage, electricity generation, land transport, aviation - and argues that Britain can cut its greenhouse gas emissions by ninety per cent. The argument is presented as a kind of personal intellectual odyssey, describing where he went, what he read, how his thinking evolved, which ingrained assumptions he had to discard and the emotional turmoil of getting to the end. The book might be read as a detective story in which the author and protagonist must solve this crucial puzzle. By the end of it, Monbiot believes he has found a 'workable solution' for slashing Britain's emissions, and that it is 'generally applicable' to other countries.

There is a deeper message in Heat, one that is anathema to fossil fuel lobbyists - not to mention neoclassical economists and hand-wringing politicians. Despite the comforting arguments of some environmentalists - and Nicholas Stern, in his 2006 report for the UK Treasury - that we can tackle climate change without major disruption, in truth cutting the world's greenhouse gases by the necessary amounts is almost intractable. We can only avoid catastrophe - including millions dying in the Third World - if we radically change the way we in the rich countries go about our daily lives. Above all, we must abandon our comfortable belief in progress. There could be no greater challenge to growth fetishism and our deepest held assumptions about progress, nor any graver threat to the power of the 'wealth creators'.

Are we in the rich countries of the world capable of making such a psychological transition? The glib answer is that we simply must. Yet such an environmental imperative must conquer a more powerful force. Our profligate consumption is no longer aimed at meeting material needs but at reproducing ourselves psychologically. In modern consumer capitalism, consumption activity is the primary means by which we create an identity and sustain a fragile sense of self. If, in order to solve climate change, we are asked to change the way we consume, then we are being asked to change who we are - to experience a sort of death. So desperately do we cling to our manufactured selves that we fear relinquishing them more than we fear the consequences of climate change. This helps to explain the chasm between the complacency of ordinary people and the rising panic among climate scientists and clear-eyed environmentalists. Monbiot understands this, and some of the most compelling passages of Heat explore the psychological obstacles to saving the planet. The campaign to maintain a liveable climate is unique:

... it is a campaign not for abundance but for austerity. It is a campaign not for more freedom but for less. Strangest of all, it is a campaign not just against other people, but also against ourselves. {2}

Climate change wars

Having begun by characterizing humankind's relationship with fossil fuels as a Faustian pact, Monbiot then turns to the climate change denial industry. The political campaign to persuade governments to take action to prevent global warming has been conducted mainly by environmental organizations, based on the work of scientists around the world. But by the time global warming was beginning to be recognized as the gravest threat to humanity, environmentalism had given rise to its opposite, a virulently hostile coalition of industrialists, right-wing commentators and conservative politicians. From the outset the evidence for global warming and the climate crisis has been resisted by the tide of anti-environmentalism, itself powered by the same energies that drove anti-communism before the fall of the Berlin Wall. Most recently the argument has been put by Margaret Thatcher's favourite chancellor, Nigel Lawson. Attacking Nicholas Stern, Lawson claimed that environmentalism 'is profoundly hostile to capitalism and the market economy'. {3} This is the nub of the matter. The logic of the sceptics - in the right-wing think tanks, the conservative media and the White House - is as follows: environmentalists are the enemies of capitalism; what they advocate must be contrary to the interests of capitalism; climate scientists who provide the evidence that supports their views are also enemies of capitalism; accepting the evidence of global warming means giving in to anti-capitalists; therefore, we must not accept the science of climate change and will seek out any shred of evidence that appears to contradict it.

This is more than an ideological conviction; for some it borders on a religious one. When asked in 2001 if President Bush would be urging Americans to curb their energy use, his spokesman Ari Fleischer replied: 'That's a big "no"'. He went on to declare that wasting energy is akin to godliness:

The President believes that it's an American way of life, and that it should be the goal of policy-makers to protect [it]. The American way of life is a blessed one ... The President also believes that the American people's use of energy is a reflection of the strength of our economy, of the way of life that the American people have come to enjoy. {4}

In recent years wealthy Texans have discovered the joys of sitting in front of a log fire. As it is usually hot in Texas they must turn their air conditioners up so they can enjoy the cosy warmth from their hearths. Using energy simultaneously to heat a house and cool it only seems perverse if you reject George Bush's conception of the American way of life.

The global warming deniers have been conducting a sustained war on climate science and the Kyoto Protocol since the mid-1990s. Monbiot reveals that some of the organizations and personnel that pursued a covert strategy of disinformation in defence of the tobacco industry shifted across into promoting climate change denial on behalf of the fossil fuel lobby. They adopted the same tactics of sowing doubt in the public mind, characterizing global warming as an unfounded panic in an increasingly risk-averse world. The pivotal role of ExxonMobil in funding and promoting anti-green organizations and climate deniers was detailed in January of this year in a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists. In September 2006, Britain's Royal Society took the highly unusual step of writing to ExxonMobil, asking that it desist from funding organizations that 'have misrepresented the science of climate change by outright denial of the evidence'. The report mentioned the Competitive Enterprise Institute - a Washington-based conservative think tank 'dedicated to advancing the principles of free enterprise and limited government' - and the London-based International Policy Network. ExxonMobil's response was to sound wounded.

Among the important organizations funded by ExxonMobil has been the website Tech Central Station, which describes itself as a site 'where free markets meet technology'. It is probably the world's most effective climate-sceptic website. Until recently it was published by theDCIGroup, a top Republican lobbying and public relations firm with close ties to the Bush Administration. DCI advertises its ability to provide 'third party support' to clients and has been linked to several industry-funded coalitions that pose as grassroots organizations. 'Corporations seldom win alone', the group's website says. 'Whatever the issue, whatever the target - elected officials, regulators or public opinion - you need reliable third party allies to advocate your cause. We can help you recruit credible coalition partners and engage them for maximum impact. It's what we do best'. The company's skills in astroturfing were acquired by its managing partners - Tom Synhorst, Doug Goodyear and Tim Hyde - during nearly a decade of work for R J Reynolds Tobacco Company in the 1990s.

In addition to front groups and industry-funded websites, a number of right-wing think tanks have played a crucial role in preventing action on global warming. As Monbiot recounts, perhaps the foremost has been the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Along with the many statements it has made denying the seriousness of global warming, the CEI has argued that climate change would create a 'milder, greener, more prosperous world' and that 'Kyoto was a power grab based on deception and fear'. In addition to ExxonMobil, corporate funders include the American Petroleum Institute, Cigna Corporation, Dow Chemical, EBCO Corp, General Motors and IBM. The CEI is also intimately involved in the Cooler Heads Coalition, which argues that the risks of global warming are speculative. Pre-empting the release of Al Gore's film An Inconvenient Truth in 2006, the CEI made television advertisements arguing against climate change. Notoriously, one of the ads ended with the words: 'Carbon dioxide, they call it pollution, we call it life'. These groups have spawned and emboldened a network of individuals who have little scientific training, but who are utterly convinced that the 'global warming theory' is a giant fraud being committed by the scientific establishment.

Aware that fanatical anti-environmentalism does not appeal to the general public, the anti-Kyoto forces have linked their arguments to currents that run deep in consumer capitalism. Societies dominated by growth fetishism provide fertile ground for any claim that a proposed intervention, such as a carbon tax, would undermine the right to keep consuming at ever-higher levels. Monbiot understands the game, and that is why his strategy of getting activists onto the streets is the only one that can work: but he argues that the activists must be re-educated. In one of his strongest chapters, he makes a compelling case that if we are to decarbonize the world economy we shall have to give up air travel. This appears shocking, the sort of claim that is so unacceptable that we immediately look for psychological defences that allow us to reject it.

Ambitious targets

In truth we could give up all but the occasional flight, and after a period of adaptation easily become accustomed to travelling less or travelling differently, just as we did before planes were turned into buses with wings in the 1970s. The principal obstacle, and it is a formidable one, is a well-established psychological fact: while we do not much yearn for what we cannot imagine, we become powerfully attached to it once we have it. In one of the more fearless and far-reaching observations in Heat, Monbiot concludes that solving climate change 'demands that we do something few people in the rich world have done for many years: recognize that progress now depends upon the exercise of fewer opportunities'. {5}

Although Monbiot identifies the psychological and political barriers as the principal obstacles to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the largest part of his book is devoted to finding a technologically feasible solution. Climate change is a subject that has drawn in thousands of experts from across a range of disciplines - most of the physical sciences, energy systems, economics, finance, ethics, politics, international relations and, increasingly, psychology and the sociology of knowledge. It is difficult for anyone to have expertise in more than one or two of these disciplines: one must decide not what to believe, but whom to believe. Yet Monbiot casts humility aside.

Monbiot has decided that his task in Heat is to achieve emission reductions that might prevent the globe warming by more than two degrees: a more ambitious target than most. That this target requires stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at the equivalent of 440 parts per million of carbon dioxide is suggested to Monbiot in an unpublished paper, sent by a man who - he concedes - 'is not a professional climate scientist but (who) appears to have done his homework', with supporting evidence from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact. {6} Proposing an egalitarian division of carbon emissions per person by 2030 - rather than a longer convergence period during which the developing world might 'catch up' - Monbiot then calculates his aggressive target for the rich world: a ninety per cent reduction by the same date, far beyond the cuts proposed by anyone else.

Seemingly determined to be more audacious than any other environmentalist, Monbiot ends up endorsing the global coal industry's golden bullet, the technology that it prays will allow it to survive and prosper in a carbon-constrained world. Carbon capture and storage - also known as geosequestration - involves building coal-fired power stations with the ability to separate out the carbon dioxide from the flue gases, then concentrating and pumping the carbon dioxide through pipelines to long-term storage in saline aquifers deep beneath the earth. As a solution to global warming this is a political ruse first and foremost - even its supporters concede that it will not make a significant difference to global emissions for fifteen to twenty years, and it is likely to be more expensive than existing alternatives. Monbiot should know better than to give it his blessing; after all, both the Bush Administration and the Howard government in Australia have put most of their policy eggs in that basket.

The argument of Heat is marred by a number of misunderstandings, especially in Monbiot's consideration of the economics of his proposed solution to the climate change problem. After arguing against reducing carbon emissions purely by way of taxes - which would allow the rich to live as they choose, or necessitate unwieldy rebate systems - he proposes a rationing system for international allocations of carbon emissions. Yet his system for allocating carbon budgets within a national economy is a kind of emissions trading system - it would 'create a new currency' that could be 'traded with other people' - that would again allow rich lifestyles to continue, largely unimpeded. He argues that the European Emissions Scheme is flawed because it allows polluters to avoid cutting their carbon emissions, by paying others to cut theirs; but that is the point of any trading system, including his own. He argues that if the required cuts are deep enough 'every sector must cut its emissions by roughly that amount'. This must be wrong, but it serves his purpose of wanting to show how every sector can achieve ninety per cent cuts. {7} Monbiot does not seem to grasp that a carbon tax and an emissions trading system are very similar, except that the first fixes the price of emissions and allows the market to determine the quantity emitted, while the latter sets the quantity of emissions and allows the market to set the price. The system he proposes is largely embodied in the Kyoto Protocol, and the European Emissions Trading Scheme is part of that framework.

Monbiot's criticisms of the Kyoto Protocol could play into the hands of the fossil fuel lobby. The need to accommodate contentious and poorly understood economic and equity effects in a global environmental agreement made the Kyoto negotiations the most complex and ambitious international treaty process ever attempted. It involved 180-odd states with enormously disparate interests and multitudinous allegiances - even before account is taken of the spoiling role of the powerful fossil fuel lobby. Consider the components of the system. The Protocol is built around mandatory emission limits for rich countries, with an unstated expectation that developing countries will adopt limits once the West has shown the way. It incorporates an emissions trading system that allows states finding it difficult to meet mandatory caps to buy surplus emission permits from other countries that can cut their emissions by more than they are required to. This sets up powerful incentives, as well as slashing the cost of the system and allowing deeper cuts. It includes a Clean Development Mechanism that enables companies in rich countries to invest in emission reduction projects in poor countries, thus giving the latter a stake in the system and much-needed financial flows. Of course there are some loopholes in the Protocol - Russian 'hot air' and the incorporation of 'forest sinks' being the biggest - but they were the price of reaching an agreement. {8} Given the almost impossible task, the Kyoto Protocol was a profoundly important achievement. It requires no structural changes other than the closing of these loopholes and agreement on a global compliance mechanism that imposes sanctions on recalcitrant states.

Monbiot's comments on the failure of the Protocol to incorporate emissions from aviation are also ill judged. So fraught and finely balanced were the negotiations at Kyoto that it was inevitable that some issues would be left off the table to be dealt with in future rounds. Yet Monbiot ridicules the UK Department of Transport for stating that the lack of international agreement means that aviation emissions are not included in the inventory of greenhouse gases. 'But a child could see that you simply divide the emissions [from international flights] by half', he writes. I have no brief to defend a sclerotic bureaucracy, but only an imperfect understanding of the problem could lead to such an answer. There are too many 'what ifs' to mention, but one will do. What if it is a flight from a poor country that has no target under the Protocol? The Department of Transport acknowledges that the aviation industry should pay for the environmental damage caused by planes. This in itself must send chills through the airline executives, but for Monbiot it is not enough, and he resorts to the cheap shot: 'Should a steward be sacrificed every time someone in Ethiopia dies of hunger?' {9}

Clash of ideologies

A month after Heat appeared, publication of the Stern review caused waves around the world. When Stern was commissioned by UK Chancellor Gordon Brown to consider the economic implications of climate change and measures to reduce emissions, his unofficial remit was to persuade America and Australia, to join global efforts and ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Stern set out to refute the principal argument used by the governments of those countries to justify their reluctance: that cutting emissions would be economically harmful. Stern and his team concluded that the costs of doing nothing - that is, the damage to economic activity of climate change - are likely to exceed the costs of cutting emissions by an order of magnitude. In this way he seemed to turn the argument of the recalcitrants on its head. Even ignoring the environmental costs, it makes financial sense to induce the transition to a low-carbon world. Although they are ostensibly on the same side, there is a sharp divergence between the arguments of Monbiot and Stern. While Monbiot argues that the necessary reductions in global emissions will require a wholesale change in lifestyle, Stern argues that dealing with climate change will mean a reduction in global GDP of a mere one per cent. While Monbiot declares that saving the planet challenges the very notion of progress, Stern concludes that 'tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy for the longer term'. {10}

One reason for this divergence lies in differing targets. While Monbiot's goal of ninety per cent cuts by 2030 would limit atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to 440 parts per million, Stern considers this to be impossible and sets 550 parts per million as his target. This will require emission cuts of 25 per cent by 2050, including reductions of sixty to 75 per cent in the power sector. (Stern says that in the longer term, reductions of at least eighty per cent will be needed.) His goal is thus much less ambitious, although still hard to attain. Monbiot feels the need to describe in great detail exactly how and where the cuts should occur. Stern is confident that once a powerful signal is sent to the market, then the market will find a way to carry out the restructuring of the energy economy. There are reasons to believe that Stern is correct. In fifty years' time the world will be dramatically different: if a strong signal can be sent now, there are grounds for optimism. While we currently have the technologies to reduce the world's emissions sharply over the next decade or two, by 2050 the market - suitably guided - will present a set of possibilities we cannot foresee. After all, fifty years ago we did not have electronics, television, computers, nuclear power, widespread use of plastics or mass-produced white goods, let alone biotechnology, genetic engineering, nanotechnology or space tourism. Beyond their disagreement over emission reduction goals, the difference between Stern and Monbiot is one of political strategy. Stern wants to persuade reluctant politicians that deep cuts will not be too painful, while Monbiot wants to frighten us into action. Will either strategy work?

It should have been apparent to Stern that his strategy would fail. Although often convened under the banner of economic argumentation, the climate change debate is a clash of ideologies. Stern, trained as an economist and therefore taught that there are no ideologies except wrong ones, failed to understand this. Gordon Brown's willingness to embrace Stern's rhetoric but reluctance to act on his recommendations can only be explained by his reflex privileging of the health of the economy over the health of the environment. (To his credit, Stern resigned.)

Stern himself remained captive to a way of understanding the world peculiar to his profession. After all, for some years economic modelling has shown that the cost of meeting Kyoto targets would be vanishingly small. Even estimates commissioned by the Bush Administration typically conclude that cutting emissions as mandated in the Kyoto Protocol would see the gross national product of the United States reduced by only one per cent by 2012. A virtually identical figure was reached by the Howard government in Australia. Bearing in mind these results are five years old, what does this figure mean? If nothing is done and the economy grows at three per cent a year over the period, GNP in the us will be about forty per cent higher by 2012. If policies to reduce emissions as specified in the Kyoto Protocol were implemented, national income would be 39 per cent higher by 2012. Put another way: instead of GNP reaching a level forty per cent higher by, say, 1 June 2012, if the us ratified Kyoto it would not reach that level until 1 October 2012.

In the face of these minute effects on economic growth, the US and Australia have nevertheless refused to play a part in reducing global emissions. Confronted with a high probability of environmental catastrophe on Earth, the richest people on the planet are unwilling to wait an extra four months to increase their incomes by forty per cent. Understood this way, hostility to Kyoto appears to be a form of madness. In truth, the results of economic models, even the ones produced by Stern that invert the argument for not acting, are puny in the face of the real reason for rejecting Kyoto: an ideological conviction that nothing must come in the way of growth and corporate interests.

Heat is an odd mixture of polemic and analysis - 'green and expert', one might say - and does not shy away from the moral core of the climate change debate. But in prosecuting the argument, Monbiot at times shares a predisposition with the denialists and fossil fuel lobbyists: an over-emphasis on the failure of individuals to do more to reduce their own contribution to global warming. Monbiot writes that 'well-meaning people are as capable of destroying the biosphere as the executives of Exxon'. {11} This is a nice line, but who would you rather have in charge of solving global climate change: Anita Roddick or the CEO of Exxon? Roddick may be well-meaning but misguided, whereas the CEO of Exxon is misguided and malicious. Poor understanding can be overcome, but malice cannot.

A collective response?

At times Monbiot is drawn into the most dangerous trap for environmentalists, the recourse to holier-than-thou moralizing. This approach has a peculiar symmetry with orthodox economics: both place far too much responsibility on the shoulders of individuals. Appealing to the idea of 'revealed preference', free-market economists argue that if individuals do not make environmentally benign decisions in the marketplace then they do not really care about the environment, no matter how much concern they might express in opinion surveys or over the dinner table. Monbiot too seems to judge us by our decisions in the marketplace. However, it is quite consistent for a person who does not opt to buy green electricity to vote for a party that promises to compel us all to buy it. Insisting on a collective response to a collective problem is far more politically practical and environmentally responsible than a politics of guilt.

Yet Monbiot is a more sophisticated political thinker than many other environmentalists writing on climate change. Among the latter, Tim Flannery abandons hope for political action and concludes in The Weather Makers that the only way to solve the climate crisis is for each of us to install solar panels on our roofs. {12} Monbiot does not fall for such political naivety, understanding the frailty of our environmental convictions in the face of the temptations of consumption. 'Manmade global warming', he writes, 'cannot be restrained unless we persuade the government to force us to change the way we live'. {13} He understands that we are both citizens and consumers, and that consumers will never solve the climate change problem however much politicians might hope otherwise. While Flannery ends his book with a list of 'eleven things you can do' as a consumer, Monbiot urges his readers to join political movements that pressure governments and the big polluters. In his last chapter he writes incisively about why people have not been massing in the streets, or even engaging in guerrilla protests, as they once did. Among other factors, he blames that over-hyped tool of post-modern politics, the internet - which, he writes, 'allows us to believe that we can change the world without leaving our chairs'. {14} By giving the illusion of individual power to desk-bound revolutionaries, the internet has in fact only hastened the erosion of real democratic participation.

However, Monbiot's style and range sometimes risk leaving the reader more disoriented than dazzled. In just four pages, in a chapter that costs his scheme for solving global warming, Monbiot leaps from commentary on fuel price fluctuations to energy demand under different prices, from the opportunity cost of spending on greenhouse abatement to the paucity of aid spending in the UK, from the extent of government subsidies to industry around the world to Bush's Energy Policy Act, from the apparent corruption of EU coal subsidies to the cost of the Iraq War and, finally, peak oil. Heat contains two superb chapters, one exposing the sinister tactics of the climate change denial industry and its links to the tobacco lobby, and one on the end of aviation: it is these two that were excerpted at the time of publication. Whilst these may provide enough reason to buy the book, readers of some of the remaining chapters may be disappointed. A work by Monbiot devoted to the politics of climate change would have been a more useful intervention than his opinion on how to achieve ninety per cent cuts in every sector. It is not the only time Monbiot has written a book that claims to solve the world's most intractable problems single-handedly: The Age of Consent (2003), described as 'a manifesto for a new world order', set out a detailed blueprint for a new international democratic system, built on principles of justice. In the battle between utopians and realists, my vote always goes to the former; yet not all utopian visions are equal, and Monbiot crossed the line that separates the inspirational from the fanciful.

Monbiot's role tells us something about the state of modern progressive politics after three decades of retreat. Following the decline of the organized left, there remain only a handful of lone intellectuals who are skilled at articulating the failings of a world dominated by neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism. They deserve our gratitude for their commitment, and for resisting attempts by publishers to turn them into celebrities. But they lack a broadly shared vision or intellectual milieu that could discipline the evolution of their thinking. As a columnist George Monbiot is a devastatingly effective critic, but we will need to search elsewhere for the ideas to lead us out of the climate change wilderness.

{1} George Monbiot, Heat: How to stop the planet burning, Allen Lane: London 2006.

{2} Monbiot, Heat, page 215.

{3} Nigel Lawson, 'The Economics and Politics of Climate Change', Centre for Policy Studies, 1 November 2006, page 16.

{4} White House press briefing, 7 May 2001.

{5} Monbiot, Heat, page 188.

{6} Monbiot, Heat, pages 15-16.

{7} Monbiot, Heat, page 59.

{8} Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia is required to 'limit' its emissions to 1990 levels over 2008-12. The collapse of Soviet industry in the early 1990s, however, means that Russia's emissions are not expected to reach 1990 levels until well after 2012. The difference is known as 'hot air'. The effectiveness of forests as carbon sinks, meanwhile, is strongly contested.

{9} Monbiot, Heat, page 175.

{10} Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge 2006, page ii.

{11} Monbiot, Heat, page 172.

{12} Tim Flannery, The Weather Makers, London and New York 2006.

{13} Monbiot, Heat, page xv.

{14} Monbiot, Heat, page 214.

Bill Totten

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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Temminck's stint

Been busy lately but crammed in a few year-ticks around work on Monday and Tuesday. Driving past Karstorp in BK early on 6/5 produced a fine merlin dashing across the road. Later on in the day at dusk I was poking my head out the Velux window upstairs and had a roding woodcock and heard a distant thrush nightingale. The next morning at 0400 I repeated the process and added cuckoo to my year-list.

Today I finally got back out there and checked Klarningen hoping initially for a crack at the reported Temminck's stint and latterly for a chance of a white-winged tern (many of the latter made landfall in Sweden on the SE winds we are experiencing). No joy with the tern but after 1.5 hours the Temminck's finally crawled out from wherever it had been hiding and showed itself. It rained pretty solidly for most of the morning but little dropped in. Twelve ruff were a highlight, also shoveler (pair), gadwall (male), grey partridge (1), greenshank (2) and at least 19 assorted yellow wagtails (flava and thunbergi, the latter dominating).

Drove home over the top picking up my first singing wood warbler at Hulrugered and a fly-over crane at Ehrenstorp.

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Friday, 24 February 2017

Ash Wednesday

Lent begins next week and there are a choice of two Masses to observe Ash Wednesday in the traditional form for those residing in the Birmingham and Black Country area. The Oratory will celebrate High Mass at 7.30pm; as usual, this replaces the usual 5.45pm low Mass. At the same time there will also be a low Mass at SS Mary and John, Snow Hill, Wolverhampton WV2 4AD; low Mass is usually celebrated here weekly at 7pm on Thursdays by Fr Guy Nicholls Cong. Orat. but will move to Ash Wednesday next week.

There will however be no Mass at Halesowen on Ash Wednesday next week.

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Friday, January 20, 2012

Warning Signs from the Cascadia Subduction Zone?

California Earthquake Map
CaliforniaEarthquake Map 01/20/2012
On January 17, 2012 a 4.3 magnitude earthquake occurred on the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast of Northern California. This relatively small quake could signal movement on this dangerous fault which has historically been silent between large events.

Lurking offshore of Northern California and running north toward Vancouver, Canada, lies the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This fault has the potential to produce an earthquake and tsunami as devastating as the March 11, 2011 quake that struck off Honshu, Japan.

While the San Andres fault system has produced a long and obvious scar on the landscape of California and the frequency of small to moderate, non-damaging earthquakes has drawn the attention of the media and scientists, Cascadia remains locked quietly offshore for centuries, building stress until it suddenly releases in massive quakes.

Geological evidence shows seven great quakes have occurred along Cascadia in the last 3500 years. Intervals range from 200 to 900 years with most occurring around 300 years apart.

Cascadia Subduction Zone
Cascadia Subduction Zone
Cascadia last ruptured in January, 1700, producing an estimated 9.0 magnitude quake.  Recently researchers have shown the chances of a major quake occuring along Cascadia could be as high as 45 percent within the next 50 years.

Between these major quakes, Cascadia sits virtually silent. In fact, scientists were aware of its presence in the Pacific northwest, but it was not considered a threat as it appeared to never experience quakes.

Brian Atwater's 2005 study of drowned coastal forests lead to the discovery of Cascadia's hidden threat. It appears to remain virtually locked and silent for centuries, pressure and stress building until it is released in a giant quake.

According to Iris, Incorporated Research Institution for Seismology:
"...Just a quarter century ago, hardly anyone suspected that a giant underwater earthquake – or the fast-arriving tsunami that such an earthquake would spawn – could ever occur in the Pacific Northwest. The region’s written history, which begins a few decades before the arrival of Lewis and Clark, is devoid of such catastrophes. Yet today the Northwest has a widely acknowledged history, thousands of years long, of earthquakes as large as magnitude 9 and of associated tsunamis. "
Oregon Earthquake Map
Oregon Earthquakes1841 - 2002
Movement on the Cascadia has been virtually non-existent for more than a century. This map shows seismological history of Oregon for the time period from 1841 through 2002. Note the red line running north/south off the Pacific coast. This represents the Cascadia fault. Note the earthquakes occur near, but not on the fault itself.

Now look at this USGS map showing the Cascadia fault registering a 4.3 magnitude earthquake on January 17, 2011. This is a highly unusual place for movement to occur. The map also shows several small quakes in the days before the larger one.

Foreshocks, Aftershocks or Anomaly?

Large Earthquakes are often preceded by 'foreshocks' which can occur from minutes to even years before the main shock. They occur in about forty percent of moderate to large quakes and perhaps seventy percent of quakes greater than magnitude 7.0.

Studies show foreshocks may increase in intensity over time leading to the main quake:
    "The observation of foreshocks associated with many earthquakes suggests that they are part of a preparation process prior to nucleation. In one model of earthquake rupture, the process forms as a cascade, starting with a very small event that triggers a larger one, continuing until the main shock rupture is triggered. "
Cascadia quake
4.3 Cascadia quake 01/17/2012
Unfortunately it is not possible to know if a particular quake is part of a foreshock pattern until after a main event occurs.

Aftershocks are smaller quakes which occur as plates readjust following a larger event. They decrease in frequency as time passes.

Perhaps the small quakes in the preceding days were foreshocks to a main 4.3 quake on the 17th? This is certainly possible, however if the 4.3 was the culmination of this series, it should have been followed by decreasing aftershocks as the huge plates settled back into a locked position. There have been no such aftershocks.

Earthquake prediction is notoriously unreliable. Tantalizing hints of patterns give hope that someday we may be able to recognize the precursors to great quakes and evacuate populations before they strike.

The question arises: Is Cascadia stirring? The recent anomalous quake on the fault is noteworthy if only for its rarity.

There are great concerns that this area is not prepared for a quake of historical size. Cities from Eureka, California to Vancouver, Washington are potential targets.

Tsunami Evacuation Route, Oregon
According to Peter Yanev, an engineer and earthquake building consultant in this article:
    "... ...Pacific Northwest cities are full of buildings with slender structural frames and fewer and smaller shear walls. In a mega-quake, many of the region's iconic tall buildings would probably collapse. "
The Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup has prepared a hypothetical scenario of the effects of a rupture of Cascadia. Predictions include:
"...• Depending on location, strong shaking might be felt for several minutes.
• Injuries and fatalities could number in the thousands, and
hundreds of buildings could be destroyed.
• A destructive tsunami will quickly hit the Cascadia coast
and travel across the Pacific Ocean.
• Aftershocks up to M7 are common, creating the potential
for additional damage."
Without a doubt, the Cascadia Subduction Zone will someday unleash a great quake in the Pacific Northwest. The odds may be as high as 45% that it will strike during the lifetime of todays residents. Whether the quake that occurred on January 17 was a foreshock, aftershock or simply an anomaly, Cascadia will rupture someday. Perhaps it will happen tomorrow or a decade from now. Please prepare now. The clock is ticking.

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