text:
NFL Picks, Divisional playoffs: Guessing that Justin Smith will be healthy enough and the 49ers (barely) cover

I’ll have a much more comprehensive 49ers-Packers prediction piece coming later today, which I’m still trying to figure out.

With the injury, QB experience and kicker status questions, it’s the toughest game of the Harbaugh Era to fully decipher, I think, and I can’t think of what’d be the second-toughest.

Which is exactly the way Jim Harbaugh likes it, of course. Until then, straight to the playoff picks…

1. BACH (last week 2-2, overall 30-22-3)/

Picks TBA.

* DENVER -9.5, over Baltimore.
* 49ERS -3, over Green Bay. Bach comment: I find it amusing the two teams with kicking issues has a 3 pt spread. A lot of uncertainty surrounding SF. But the players are rested and gave off a good vibe this week.

* ATLANTA -2.5, over Seattle. Bach comment: I’d like to take Seattle but they had to come from behind to beat an injured RG3. Another road game against a rested Falcons team with a healthy QB…

* NEW ENGLAND -9.5,  over Houston.

2. PURDY (last week 3-1, overall 31-23-1)/
* DENVER -9.5, over Baltimore. Purdy comment: Wow, that’s a lot of points. But if you’re in with Peyton Manning, you might as well be all in.

* 49ERS -3, over Green Bay. Purdy comment: This one could be closer than close, and if it comes down to a final field goal as a decider, oh, man… but I’m banking that the week’s rest will give Frank Gore’s legs an extra boost. He had to be watching the way the Vikings ran against the Packers in Week 17 and thinking of what might be possible in a playoff game. The 49er offensive line also wants to prove a point, I think. And Candlestick should be a factor.

* ATLANTA -2.5, over Seattle. Purdy comment: Am I the only person in North America who believes in the Falcons? I don’t care what anyone says, Seattle making two cross-country trips within nine days will take something out of the Seahawks.

* HOUSTON +9.5, over New England. Purdy comment: Always have to pick one underdog, so this is it. Banking that Texans got over their playoff psychosis hump last weekend and will play better this week with the pressure off… but for the record, I’m not banking too much.

3. RYAN (last week 3-1, overall 29-25-1)/

* BALTIMORE +9.5, over Denver. Ryan comment: Joe Flacco gets so much grief, but he has played seven road playoff games in his five years and he has only lost one of them by more than nine points.

* GREEN BAY +3, over 49ers. Ryan comment: On nothing but a hunch, I am saying Justin Smith is not nearly as ready to play this game as the 49ers would have you believe. Packers are cranking it up and look a lot like the 2010 group. Green Bay 30, San Francisco 17.

* SEATTLE +2.5, over Atlanta. Ryan comment: In a neutral-site tournament I would have taken the Seahawks to win the NFC. Still think they might do it.

* NEW ENGLAND -9.5, over Houston. Ryan comment: I don’t see a whole lot of reason to think this will be different than the last time they played.

4. KAWAKAMI (last week 1-3, overall 23-31-1)/

* DENVER -9.5, over Baltimore. My comment: The former rule was to take Baltimore when the Ravens are getting more than a FG, and don’t take ’em when they’ve giving more than a FG–which Joe Flacco & Co. of course violated in last week’s big cover against Indy, so I’m tossing it out the window (temporarily).

Baltimore has the dread play-Sunday/travel-to-play-Saturday short playoff week in this one… and they’ve also got the added thin-air disadvantage. Of course that’s all factored into this huge point-spread. Denver put up 34 in Baltimore last month (with the help of poor Joe Flacco), so I think 27 is the low-estimate on Saturday.

Can the Ravens score more than 17? I don’t think so. Plus, Denver has won 5 of its last 6 its last 5 home playoff games–dating to the Elway Era. I’ll say it’ll be something like Denver 27-10.

* 49ERS -3, over Green Bay. My comment: Much more on this later today, but presuming the 49ers can run a little on the Packers D and let Colin Kaepernick ease into his first career playoff start, I think the 49ers will win by 10 if Justin Smith is anything close to healthy.

And I think he’s probably 60% healthy. Which means I think the 49ers can slow Aaron Rodgers down just enough and win by a smidgen, something like 31-27. (Warning: I might change my mind on the predicted score later in the day. This is my snapshot guess right now.)

* SEATTLE +2.5, over Atlanta. My comment: The Seahawks are probably 7 points better than Atlanta on a neutral field, but at the Georgia Dome, after two cross-country flights, I’d say this is a coin-flip game. At some point, all this travel is going to wear on Seattle, but getting the points covers that worry.

I think Seattle wins this game outright if it gets two or three turnovers from a wobbly Falcons offense. Otherwise, I’ll say Atlanta wins but does not cover, something like 21-20.

* NEW ENGLAND -9.5, over Houston. My comment: Tom Brady is not losing to Matt Schaub at Gillette Stadium. It shouldn’t be close, something like New England 30-13.

5. POOLE (last week 2-2, overall 14-31-9)/

-Picks TBA.
-My extra stuff

I’ll make New England -9.5 over Houston my 8-star play. Last week I missed my 7-star play with Washington. Overall, I’m -7 stars on the season.

Tim Kawakami

  • milo

    Takes 2 good months for a tricep tear to heal. Longer if surgery is required. Given DL need their arms and leverage, Smith won’t be the same..even if he gets shot up with pain killers. Don’t think Smith is ready. Also which arm is it? My guess is GB tries a couple of double teams and goes after the weak arm and just pummels him.

  • Charlie Manuel’s Diaper

    I dont understand the love affair that many in the media are having with seattle.
    If RG III stayed healthy, redskins win a romp.

    Matt Ryan is no RG III. But the falcons are the better team and will cover easily

  • Turin

    Denver -9 over Baltimore. Denver rolls easily at home in this one.
    New England -9.5 over Houston. Ditto for NE.
    Seattle +2 over Atlanta. I think Seattle wins outright. You can hear the Atlanta sphincters tightening-up all the way over here.
    49ers -3 over GB. I think we’ll see another great team performance like week 1, @NO, or the first half of the NE game.

    Basically, the AFC games should be boring this week but set up a great championship game next week. And the NFC is gearing up for a colossal third meeting between the two toughest teams in football. Should be a pair of classics next weekend. But first we’ll see what happens this week. Regardless of who wins, I think both of the NFC games will be entertaining.

  • Congratulations Timmy!
    What a great honor! You deserve it! I enjoy your work very much and I’m happy for you! Enjoy!!!

  • Threeputt

    Second that! Congratulations Tim. Here’s what we’re talking about http://www.insidebayarea.com/breaking-news/ci_22351358/tim-kawakami-is-california-sportswriter-year

  • Sid

    I am sitting here watching on NFL network the 1st time the Packers and 49ers met in Week 1.

    It was a total domination by the 49ers. If not for flag being picked up by the replacement refs on a clear block in the back on Randall Cobb’s 4th quarter TD punt return the score would have better reflected that domination.

    The Packers simply could not run the ball nor gain any momentum until the Cobb punt return.

    Then of course Rodgers throws a pick to Navarro Bowman to setup Gore’s final TD run.

    The Packers D will let them down as always. They had a chance to have this game at home but blew it to Minnesota in week 17 because of their inability to stop the run and dare I say it Christian Ponder.

    Colin Kaepernick went on the road on national TV and beat Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Both of whom have won Super Bowls. Rodgers at Candlestick will be no issue for him as it is easy to argue winning at home is far easier than the road in the NFL much less the playoffs.

    Justin Smith will play 50% of the snaps splitting time with Jean-Francois who played a solid game against Arizona the last week of the season and would start on most teams in the NFL.

    The 49ers are simply a better team in all facets and defensively they are so much better than the Packers it is not even close. Dujuan Harris running on us? Good luck dude, ask how other RBs not Ahmad Bradshaw this season how running on the 49ers was at Candlestick?

    This plus Green Bay had to play these 2 last weeks against a determined Minnesota team who wore them down despite Ponder not playing last week.

    San Francisco on the other hand is well rested and their defense is going knock the Packers in the teeth just like they did to the Saints last year who were far better than the Packers are this year.

    My final point is comparing the 49ers in 2011 to 2012. Last year the 49ers went under radar going 13-3 against one would argue a soft schedule. Everyone and their mom had New Orleans winning easily at Candlestick.

    This year the 49ers went a hard earned 11-4-1 with wins at Green Bay, New Orleans and New England. If not for David Akers losing his mind against the Rams the 49ers would be 13-3 with the #1 seed in the NFC.

    49ers will defeat Green Bay 34-21 in a similar fashion as they did in week 1 by running the ball and this time they have the deep threat with Kaepernick that they did not have with Alex Smith.

    This game will not be as close as most so call experts are stating.

  • Niners in 2012

    Watching the Week 1 replay just reminds you how intimidated GB was. We physically scare them, and that’s something you can’t read in a boxscore. That game was over, we were up 23-7 with 8 mins to go and GBs offense had absolutely nothing going. Then a fluke punt return TD keyed by an illegal block made the game look closer than it was. I expect alot of aligator arms from Green Bay WRs and huge day by the OLine and Frank Gore.

  • dorothy cobb

    I dont think so green bay packer going to win the game this

  • Pilgrim

    I hope the 9ers win, but to talk about week 1 is just silly. Without Justin Smith healthy, it’s no sure thing that we will muscle around GB. Kaep will either have a great day or lay another egg. Could go either way. We also have way fewer weapons at WR than in week 1. All that being said, I think the 9ers have a great shot at this game. Should be a great one to watch. Wish I was going to be at the Stick!

  • Niners in 2012

    You talking about individual players is just silly, this isn’t basketball. The OLine is heathly last time I looked and they completely dominated GB. Kaep won’t even be a factor when Gore is running for 7 yards a pop.

  • That Man

    Oh wow. Congrats TK. You really are the best sports writer in the Bay Area, and I’m glad they recognized you. I read your blogs every day, and you bring honest assessment and analysis in all your columns. Keep giving the people what they want (Niners and Warriors)!
    Niners win by 6-10 on the backs of their healthy o line(no sausage fingers).
    I’m am confused by the Seahawks line/love. Everyone seems to like the Seahawks (national/local media/espn experts etc), yet they are underdogs. But they are also travelling across the country in back to back weeks (we saw what that did to the Niners), playing at 10am against a team with everything to prove, a good run Def, and an explosive offense. (I guess I just explained it…) I like the Falcons to get their first playoff win.

  • Nobody

    If their defense and running game play according to their ranking, then 49ers will win. If not, they will lose this game like all the losses this year regardless of who they have behind center.

  • Kris

    Don’t get too overconfident 49er fans just bc you won in week 1. Both teams look very different from 17 weeks ago. Early in the season defenses have a clear advantage over offensive units who are trying to find their stride. Big reason for the niners week 1 success was being able to get pressure with their front 4 allowing your super quick linebackers to drop into coverage. If you can’t get to Rodgers with your front four-you will be forced to blitz and he will burn you!

  • Seattle Niner

    Congratulations, TK. When you recognize a controversial angle you don’t hesitate to lay it out there, complete with excellent analysis. You also seem to be very fair when that view turns out to be not so accurate, or if situations change (see current comments on D Lee). Well deserved award.

    Tim was also the best sports writer in LA

    In the past six weeks Seattle have traveled to Miami, Chicago, Toronto, DC, and now Atlanta for a 10AM(west coast time) game in the blood thirsty for a win Georgia Dome. It could go bad for Seattle

  • KauaiRobert

    Congrats buddy!

  • Turin

    Well, I couldn’t have been more wrong about that fantastic Denver/Baltimore game. But it’s hard for me to care after the Niners just crushed it. Great game, guys!


Content-Type: application/http; msgtype=response

WARC-Truncated: length

WARC-Type: response

text:
Saturday playlist

He’s a serial killer, but we root for him. Midmorning looks at the allure of the anti-hero.

Here’s your chance to catch up on the arts stories broadcast on MPR this week, including in studio performances by Adam Levy and Dawes:

Why do we love anti-heroes?

From Don Draper to Lisbeth Salander, deeply flawed and un-heroic characters abound in TV, film, and literature. Why do we love anti-heroes, and what does it say about us?

Student play helps foster communication between cops and kids

Some high school students from north Minneapolis have been working with Minneapolis police officers on an unusual partnership.

Folk musician KT Tunstall reinvents herself

After producing such hits as “Black Horse and the Cherry Tree” and “Suddenly I See,” folk Scottish singer KT Tunstall disappeared for a while. Now she’s back with a new band, a new album and a new style.

Dawes perform live in The Current studio

This quartet of college-aged guys from California play nicely tinged Southern-style rock and have already made their television debut and played the First Ave mainroom on the strength of just one album. They’re obviously doing something right, and their hearts are 100% in the sound they create.

Reviving the great American songbook

Songwriter and musician Adam Levy is exploring the great American Songbook, a collection of songs created between 1925 and 1960 that he believes shapes our notions of American music.

Art Hounds

A play that delves into the rigors and rewards of raising a child with autism, a photographer who makes eerie collages that look like blueprints, and a Hitchcock spoof at the Guthrie are all grabbing the hounds attention this week.

Two films tackling tough subjects

Conversations with Davis Guggenheim about his new documentary on public education, “Waiting for Superman,” and with author Sebastian Junger about “Restrepo,” a documentary he directed on the war in Afghanistan.

Dinner Party Download with guest Huey Lewis

The guest of honor on this edition of Dinner Party Download is pop singer Huey Lewis. Rico Gagliano talks to Lewis about his soul roots, his band’s original name, and the hard-rock legend from whom he copped his clothes.

Comments are closed.

warcinfo:
robots: classic
hostname: ip-10-153-172-175.ec2.internal
software: Nutch 1.6 (CC)/CC WarcExport 1.0
isPartOf: CC-MAIN-2016-36
operator: CommonCrawl Admin
description: Wide crawl of the web for August 2016
publisher: CommonCrawl
format: WARC File Format 1.0
conformsTo: http://bibnum.bnf.fr/WARC/WARC_ISO_28500_version1_latestdraft.pdf


text:
Apr 06

While migrating a simple project from Silverlight 3.0 to 4.0 RC, I’ve noticed that the my project no longer compiles. I’ve started getting errors which said that something like “Array does not have an Add method”. After looking at the proxy that was generated by the add reference dialog, I’ve noticed that the ObservableCollection option is no longer available on the Service Reference Dialog (as you can see from the following image):

The good news is that this is a bug in the RC version and it should be fixed in the final release. Thank god for that!

3 comments so far

  1. Nuno Godinho
    9:45 am - 4-6-2010

    Yes this was an issue. You can use the slsvcutil with the /ct option like this: slsvcutil /edb /namespace:”*,SilverlightApplication1.ServiceReference1″ /ct:System.Collections.ObjectModel.ObservableCollection1

    But yes this will be solved in the RTW release.

  2. 9
    1:06 pm - 7-21-2010

  3. uiy
    1:06 pm - 7-21-2010


text:
“When someone really hears you without passing judgment on you, without taking responsibility for you, without trying to mold you, it feels damn good.  When I have been listened to, when I have been heard, I am able to re-perceive my world in a new way and go on.”    – Carl Rogers

The results of a new research study underscoring the importance of empathy for marital satisfaction, just hit the web and weekly news magazines. Before you ask yourself why in God’s name we needed research to confirm such an obvious observation, let me explain how I came upon this and why I chose to write about it.

I was reading The Week, one of the few magazines I happily read cover to cover. In the Health & Science section, where I often discover new research that I delve into for my blog, there was a tantalizing headline, “Why Women Seek Conflict.” What is this about? Since this would be news, at least to me, I continued.

The one paragraph synopsis I was reading opened with the line: “Men who say that their wives or girlfriends deliberately pick fights may be on to something.” Now, both intrigued and incredulous, I had to investigate further. I read the whole research article, published in the Journal of Family Psychology.

What I discovered had nothing to do with why women seek conflict. Instead I found an interesting piece of good research from a highly qualified team at Harvard Medical School and Mass General Hospital. The research was all about empathy. The study, entitled “The Eye of the Beholder,” looked not only at empathic accuracy, which has already been studied, but also looked at perceived empathic effort. In non-psychology research talk, the point was to find out whether couples felt closer and happier with their relationships when a partner correctly understood them (empathic accuracy) or when they could see that the partner was even trying to understand (perceived effort).

The research found some similarities between the sexes as well as a few differences. As the great psychologist Carl Rogers noted, accurate empathy feels damn good– for everyone. But the differences are noteworthy, especially for psychotherapists working with couples. Men’s relationship satisfaction is uniquely associated, the researchers found, with their ability to know when the women are happy.

When men are attuned to the women’s anger and sadness, it helps the women feel closer but doesn’t necessarily change how close the men feel. Another difference between genders is that while women were happier in relationships where the men were more accurate in their empathy for both positive and negative emotions, what was most important to women was whether or not they felt their partner was trying to understand their feelings even when they weren’t accurate.

An important part of any relationship counseling should be to increase awareness of both your own feelings and that of your other family members, helping partners as well as parents and kids to walk a mile in the other’s moccasins. This new research should underscore how marriage therapists can help men to understand that learning about and acknowledging painful emotions has an important payoff–the happiness of their mate.

When men withdraw or refuse to share either their own pain or that of their partner, the women feel less connected and cared about. Just making the effort makes a big difference. Therapists should also impress upon the women just how important it is to talk about their positive emotions, sharing openly when they are feeling happy and close.

One final point about believing everything you read…Make sure that you read the fine print when you see dramatic headlines. Now that you know (and can check out the link for lots more detailed information) what this particular study was really about, here are a few more headlines I found on the web featuring this research: “Every Comedian Was Right: Women are Happy when Men are Miserable” and “Upset Men and the Happy Women Who Love Them” and “Why Ladies Love Angry Men.”

Reading these headlines got me pretty steamed since the point seemed to be to entice readers through sensationalism rather than sharing the facts.

I’ve got one last question, does anyone out there really understand how I’m feeling?

Man consoling woman photo available from Shutterstock.


text:
James Pethokoukis

A decade-long dollar disaster

October 19, 2010

They’re calling The Oughts a Lost Decade. Yet how could that possibly be? The experts keep telling me a weak dollar brings prosperity. But look at this chart from Carpe Diem:

A bullish case for the US dollar

January 12, 2010

Ed Yardeni expounds:

I’m not sure, but it seems to me that the dollar is the best of a dodgy breed. The Old World nations–Europe, Japan, and the United States–have rapidly aging populations. Their outlays on social welfare are rising faster than their GDPs. Their dependency ratios–the number of retired persons supported by each worker–are taking off. This suggests to me that the dollar, the euro, the pound, and the yen (DEPY) might all continue to be good shorts relative to gold. (See Figure 5 in our Gold chart book linked below.) Gold is widely viewed as a hedge against inflation. More broadly, it is a hedge against out-of-control debt-financed government spending.

Dubai and the dollar

November 27, 2009

My pal Felix Salmon makes a good point about the dollar and Dubai. The greenback initially slid on the news. But isn’t the greenback supposed to be a safe haven. Felix opines as follows:

Can a special commission stanch America’s red ink?

November 10, 2009

I spent all morning at a Senate Budget Committee hearing looking at how to create a special commission that would devise a plan to fix America’s long-term budget shortfall. This would be like the base-closing commission where a panel — made up mostly of senators and congressman — would submit a plan to Congress that would have to be voted on — up or down, no amendments.

PelosiCare could be bad news for the dollar

November 9, 2009

If the Reserve Bank of India’s directors had any doubts about the wisdom of buying 200 tonnes of IMF gold — and likely dumping some U.S. Treasuries in the process — they had only to watch last weekend’s legislative activities on Capitol Hill. The proceedings provided plenty of reassurance that the move was a smart play.

Tobin taxes, the dollar and gold

November 9, 2009

Perhaps the real reason Gordon Brown suggested a securities transaction tax was to tamp down on currency speculation that driven down global currencies vs. gold. Willam Rees-Mogg explains:

Can the US keep financing its debt?

October 30, 2009

The great Andy Busch of BMO Capital Markets sees some problems down the road:

It’s called carry, but not like currency carry. As most know, banks can fund themselves at 0.1%-0.25% as the Federal Reserve keeps Fed Funds at 0.0%-0.25%. Then banks are incentivized to find the safest, highest return they can with this cash.

The deficit’s risk to the dollar

October 26, 2009

Allan Meltzer on deficits and the dollar:

The administration admits to about $1 trillion budget deficits per year, on average, for the next 10 years. That’s clearly an underestimate, because it counts on the projected $200 billion to $300 billion of projected reductions in Medicare spending that will not be realized. And who can believe that the projected increase in state spending for Medicaid can be paid by the states, or that payments to doctors will be reduced by about 25%?

Study: Blame China, not Wall Street, for Great Recession

October 21, 2009

This paper make a great case for blaming the Great Recession on the massive influx of cheap labor (and the continued weak yuan) into the global economy. Bad decisions on Wall Street didn’t help, but they are not the root cause:

Thanks Washington! Why dollar weakness will continue

October 21, 2009

The great Andy Busch of BMO Capital Markets effortlessly explains the link between the current anemic state of the dollar and America’s terrible fiscal situation:


text:
In Cairo, protesters challenge Mursi’s rule

July 1, 2013

CAIRO — I’ve been in Egypt the past few days to witness the Egyptian people’s indignation at their president, Mohamed Mursi. But where best to watch? On Sunday I joined a march from a metro station in Cairo’s Heliopolis district to the presidential palace. My fellow journalist Abdallah Hassan thought Tahrir Square would be jammed full early, and that the palace would be where the real action — different from what preceded the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak two and a half years ago — would be.

It proved to be, in part. The two or three thousand of us who had debouched from metros in the early afternoon heat swelled to many tens of thousands in the evening. Marchers came from every direction, packing into the wide boulevard before the palace complex. In all of Egypt’s cities, the same scenes were repeated. It was one of the biggest, best coordinated protests of our times, much larger than those that swept out Mubarak. Reuters quoted a military source who estimated as many as 14 million turned out countrywide.

It was a party, a joy ride, an effusion of spirits. It was led by young men who went down a list of rhyming couplets while seated on the shoulders of sweating comrades. “Shout, Mursi! This is your last day!”; “We don’t want the military! We don’t want the Brotherhood!”; “Shave your face and you’re like Mubarak!”; “You spare tire! We’ll send you back to jail!” and “Look and see! The revolution, you sheep!” (They rhyme in Arabic.)

The day was remarkable for its complete lack of police or army. Only at one gate to the palace, with steel barriers and barbed wire coils, were half a dozen presidential guardsmen in riot gear standing behind it. As the demonstrators screamed, officers wore expressions of unworried contempt. Helicopters circled low overhead at intervals, presumably recording the crowds.

As dark fell, the screaming, fireworks, blowing of horns and the banging of drums attained, at times, a perfect wall of infernal sound. It was as if the demonstrators were seeking to exorcise a demon, not force a president out. It reminded me of the biblical Joshua at the Battle of Jericho, who by the blow of his horns and the shouts of his army caused the walls to tumble down. By this time, the slogans had been narrowed down to one shout, over and over: Leave!

This was day one of what is advertised by the opposition National Salvation Front as a campaign to rid Egypt of its first properly elected president, a man of woeful incompetence, but with three years left to run of his mandate. Struggling back into the center on a groaning metro, Abdallah and I wondered what we would do if we were Mursi. Abdallah, with more at stake, said brusquely, “Leave!”

I think Mursi will do two things. First, somehow restate his legitimacy and his mandate. Second, say that his door is always open to talks and compromises: indeed, by late evening, his spokesman was on TV saying just that.

The journalist and publisher Hisham Kassem, a stubborn democrat, told me that “the opposition has the judiciary, the politics and the media: the Brotherhood has the electoral organization.” But, he added, the latter would not be enough this time. Such is the tide of anger, cutting across classes. The poor are suffering the most, as ever; but the rich and the professionals are scorning the pious provincials, energetically waving opposition banners from the windows of their BMWs.

Pious provincials make up millions of Egyptians, as the election of Mursi showed — he is one himself. But can they save him now? Even discounting the impression made by the vast outpouring of human bodies on Sunday, it seems unlikely. Looking at the stout walls of that vast presidential palace, I couldn’t imagine that its present occupant was not long for its cool halls. The larger question beyond this weekend is who can occupy it with enough determination, steady support and intelligence to put Egypt through reforms that shake a social fabric sewn of 60 years of military authoritarian rule?

One image during the protest was particularly resonant: the toy sheep. The opposition represents the Muslim Brotherhood, Mursi’s party, as sheep who follow the dictates of the Brothers’ supreme leader, Mohamed Badie, believed to be the one who gives Mursi his orders.

I talked about this with a middle-aged and well-dressed throat specialist who worked at a teaching hospital some 300 kilometers from Cairo. (He did not wish to give his name.) He interpreted Mursi’s puppetry through a religious lens: He said Muslims pray directly to god, without the intercession of some so-called figure of authority. “He does not tell us how to pray!” he said with some force. “My religion is a private matter, not something to be imposed.”

A Protestant would have said reasoned the same way to a Catholic when that distinction mattered in Europe. In fact there were many pious men and women on the streets in Egypt; a few women in niqabs, nearly all in scarves. As I left a Kentucky Fried Chicken on the edge of the vast demonstration, a customer was praying as best he could in the crowded restaurant, among the greasy papers on the floor.

PHOTO: Protesters opposing Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi gather during a demonstration at Tahrir Square in Cairo June 30, 2013.  REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

No comments so far

Comments are closed.


text:
McCain and Hayworth battle over infomercial

July 8, 2010

USA/The infomercial plays on in Arizona. At least when it comes to the feisty battle between Sen. John McCain and GOP challenger and former U.S. Rep J.D. Hayworth.

The McCain camp came out swinging on Thursday, calling on his opponent in the Republican primary to “come clean” about an infomercial he did post-Congress that promised viewers free, yes, free government money. The 30-minute infomercial for a Florida company was made in 2007.

McCain wants to know how much the former six-term congressman was paid and the terms of the contract he inked with National Grants Conference, a company that has drawn harsh criticism from some consumer advocates.

“For personal profit, Congressman Hayworth sold his name and the integrity of the United States Congress to an absurd ‘free government money’ infomercial scam that ripped innocent people off,” said Brian Rogers, McCain’s campaign spokesman.

A campaign spokesman for Hayworth, who lost a close election in 2006, cast aside the cUSA/harges made by the twice-presidential candidate in a statement released to Reuters.

Spokesman Mark Sanders said the claims are nothing more than “distractions and distortions” meant to hide the real issue from Arizona voters.

“One and only one issue matters in this campaign,” he said. “John McCain’s inability to tell the truth about his real position on granting amnesty to illegal aliens and how much that ill-conceived plan will cost taxpayers.” He pegged that figure at $2.6 trillion.

Stay tuned. The primary is still 48 days away.

Reporting by David Schwartz

One comment

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see

This primary will handily go to McCain. JD Hayworth was a failure in Congress years ago and has continued to live up to his reputation. JD is beyond corrupt and his history is filled with scandals and hypocrisy. The infomercial with JD claiming to give away free govt money was a company who had an F rating with the BBB, anybody can look up the legitimacy of a company, yet JD claims he did not know. He has proven to us that he will do or say anything to put money into his own pockets.

Posted by RepubAZ | Report as abusive


text:
The Public Eye

Reports from the Bee's investigative team

April 27, 2011
Maternal mortality rising in California

Back in December this blog noted the steady increase in U.S. maternal mortality (pregnancy-related deaths) since dropping to its lowest point in 1986. Now the California Public Heath Department is reporting that the mortality rate in the state has almost doubled between 1999 and 2008 (8.0 to 14.0 deaths per 100,000 live births.

Maternal mortality is rare, but the rising rates are a warning sign of increasing health risk factors among women (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, etc.) and of problems with maternal health care.

The CDPH report found disparities in mortality related to race, income and education:

* The risk of maternal death was four times higher for African American women than for other groups in 2002-03 (46.1 deaths per 100,000 live births, compared to 12.8 for Hispanic women, 12.4 for White women, and 9.3 for Asian women).

* Low-income women in the state died at a higher rate than others. Fifty-seven percent of maternal deaths involved Medi-Cal recipients, though this group constituted only 45 percent of all women giving birth.

* Although women with less than a high school diploma constituted 11 percent of women who gave birth in the state, 31 percent of all maternal deaths occurred within this group.

About Comments

Reader comments on are the opinions of the writer, not The Sacramento Bee. If you see an objectionable comment, click the "report abuse" button below it. We will delete comments containing inappropriate links, obscenities, hate speech, and personal attacks. Flagrant or repeat violators will be banned. See more about comments here.

What You Should Know About Comments on is happy to provide a forum for reader interaction, discussion, feedback and reaction to our stories. However, we reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments or ban users who can't play nice. (See our full terms of service here.)

Here are some rules of the road:

• Keep your comments civil. Don't insult one another or the subjects of our articles. If you think a comment violates our guidelines click the "report abuse" button to notify the moderators. Responding to the comment will only encourage bad behavior.

• Don't use profanities, vulgarities or hate speech. This is a general interest news site. Sometimes, there are children present. Don't say anything in a way you wouldn't want your own child to hear.

• Do not attack other users; focus your comments on issues, not individuals.

• Stay on topic. Only post comments relevant to the article at hand. If you want to discuss an issue with a specific user, click on his profile name and send him a direct message.

• Do not copy and paste outside material into the comment box.

• Don't repeat the same comment over and over. We heard you the first time.

• Do not use the commenting system for advertising. That's spam and it isn't allowed.

• Don't use all capital letters. That's akin to yelling and not appreciated by the audience.

You should also know that The Sacramento Bee does not screen comments before they are posted. You are more likely to see inappropriate comments before our staff does, so we ask that you click the "report abuse" button to submit those comments for moderator review. You also may notify us via email at Note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us the profile name of the user who made the comment. Remember, comment moderation is subjective. You may find some material objectionable that we won't and vice versa.

If you submit a comment, the user name of your account will appear along with it. Users cannot remove their own comments once they have submitted them, but you may ask our staff to retract one of your comments by sending an email to Again, make sure you note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us your profile name.

hide comments

On October 14, The Sacramento Bee will temporarily remove commenting from While we design the upgrade, we encourage you to tell us what you like and don't like about commenting on and other websites. We've heard from hundreds of you already and we're listening. Please continue to add your thoughts and questions here. We also encourage you to write Letters to the Editor on this and other topics.

About The Public Eye

Welcome to The Bee's newest blog: Public Eye. In the coming months, you will see us breaking news here as well as following up on investigations we have published with tidbits, news breaks and behind-the-scenes descriptions of our news-gathering process. Know of a wrong we could right? Send our fraud squad your tips at:

The Public Eye

October 2013

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31

Monthly Archives


text:
Defining a custom color palette for BI Dashboard bar charts

Out of the box, the simple bar graph uses the same color for each bar.

A frequent request from users is to define a standard color palette for the dashboard indicators so distinct bars are the same color in each indicator or from refresh to refresh. With most dashboard tricks, like the dynamic dashboard range, it is all about the data. The steps are to create a numeric value for each bar's categorical variable (such as region), create a range that matches these numeric values and defines the color for each, and the use a range enabled bar chart to leverage these colors but still display the bar's numerical value (such as sales total).

Let's walk through this in more detail.

Step 1. Set up the data

For this example, I used a SQL query to pull in the total sales for three regions in the data set. Then with a SQL case expression, I added a 'color' column where 1 is for Africa, 2 is for Asia, and 3 is for Canada.

The important change to note is that for the data mapping tab, the color column will be changed so that the value displayed is the total sales. This means that the graph will leverage the color to plot, but the actual data value shown to the user will be the total sales.

Step 2. Define a custom color range

Create a range that defines which colors to use for which corresponding number. In the example screenshot below, I chose to have Orange for Africa (or defined as 1 in the data), Blue for Asia (stored as 2), and Red for Canada (and marked as a 3).

Step 3. Use a bar chart that leverages range

The final step required a bit of exploration, but what turned out the best was the use of the "Bar chart with bullet" indicator. I used the data and range defined in the prior steps, and then specified that the 'color' value was the range (#1 in the screenshot below), the 'region' was the x-axis value (#2), the bar value was 'color' (#3) and the bullet value is 'total_sales' (#4). You'll notice in the chart the y-axis label states 'color(millions)'. Just add the term 'Total Sales' to the y-axis title field to correct this as well.

tags: BI Dashboard

  1. Posted September 13, 2012 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    Very clever. I was talking about designing dashboards yesterday.

    • Angela Hall Angela Hall
      Posted September 13, 2012 at 11:23 am | Permalink

      Like usual, we are on the same wave-length Tricia! :)

  2. Frédéric Wéverberg
    Posted September 18, 2012 at 5:34 am | Permalink

    Very helpful Angela !

  3. Angela Broach
    Posted September 18, 2012 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    I wasn't able to get these results using a bar chart with bullet, but using a targeted bar chart worked very well with the target set to (none)

    • Angela Hall Angela Hall
      Posted September 18, 2012 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

      All bar chart types that allow for range selection will work for this example. Either "bar chart with bullet" or "targeted bar chart" will work. The trick is to ensure that your selections for display setting correspond with the data appropriately.

      For "bar chart with bullet" note that the following were selected:
      range value = color
      x-axis value = region
      bar value = color
      bullet value = total_sales


text:
SS Technical Article: Ordering an Application from AppSource

by ScanSource Technical Services on October 23, 2011

in AIDC,Barcode Printing,Mobility,ScanSource POS & Barcode,Technical Knowledge Portal,Technology,Wireless

ScanSource Technical Knowledge Portal

Installing an Application from ScanSource’s AppSource

While there are multiple ways to download, license and install applications from AppSource, this walkthrough is meant to guide you through the first one, making sure you don’t miss any steps.

  1. Go to ScanSource’s AppSource and login by clicking on Enter Reseller Zone. If you are a ScanSource reseller and have not already registered for AppSource you can do so from the Reseller Zone. Just click on “Are you a ScanSource Reseller? Create your AppSource user account here.”

  1. Once you are logged in select the Application tab to bring up the list of available applications.

  1. For this walkthrough we’ll be installing the EasyGo! Meter Reading application. Click on it to bring up the applications home screen.

  1. The information tab on the applications home screen provides details and some screen shots.

  1. Select the Devices tab for a list of devices this application has been certified with. You will not be able
    to install the application on a handheld that is not on this list.

  1. The Download tab has links to download AppSource Studio and Link. Both are going to be needed later so download & install them on your PC. Studio is used to install and modify AppSource applications. Link is used by the applications to communicate back to the host system.

  1. The Doc tab has a link to the applications User Guide. Also something you will want to go ahead and download. It contains the information needed to customize the application and create the necessary data files.

  1. Now that you have read up on the application, downloaded Studio/Link and have the user guide it is time to get the free 15 day trial license and give the application try. Go the Ordering tab. There will be some information on purchasing a license but scroll down a bit and you will see the Request a Free Trial link. Clicking the link will trigger an email with all the licensing information needed to get a fully working copy of the software for 15 days.

  1. Here is an example of the email. The important parts are the license key and password. They will be used in step 11 of SS Technical Article – Installing from AppSource

Check out SS Technical Article – Installing from AppSource for information on how to install an application from AppSource.

Greg Dixon, Chief Technology Officer at ScanSource, Inc., will walk you through AppSource 101. Watch this informative web seminar (pre-recorded) to gain a better understanding of how AppSource can help you grow your business.

Part one:
AppSource 101 – What is AppSource? How to search and download apps

Part two:
AppSource 101 – Modifying Apps and Licensing options

Still have questions or technical trouble?

If your already a ScanSource Reseller contact us for further support.

Not yet a ScanSource Reseller? Click here to find out how easy it is to become one.

This post was written by

Our experienced, trained technical support team is ready to go to work for you. Whether you need pre-sale support, installation help, or warranty and financing information, we can help. You can also access industry information from a wide variety of sources at our technical knowledge portal. Instead of sorting through the websites of 50 or more manufacturers to find out about products and programs, you can use our categorized search engine to locate information of any type about any technology offered by ScanSource. Just type in your query, and you're on your way. Contact our Technical Support Team at 800.944.2439 ext. 4002. Our staff is available from 8:30 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. EST.

Learn more about this topic at >

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post:


text:
Browsing Tag

Government Policy, Industry News, Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Uncategorized

Downs: Americans must be more Realistic for Economic Recovery

Real estate industry leaders gathered at UST on October 26, 2011 for the Hall of Fame induction ceremony and to hear Tony Downs, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution

Tony Downs’ reputation precedes him.  Having authored An Economic Theory of Democracy at age 27, 23 books and over 500 articles, and being an active economist at the Brookings Institution since 1977, he has seen the rise and fall of the US economy many times over.  At the 2011 Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame induction ceremony, the University of St. Thomas presented Downs with a Certificate of Professional Distinction.  Downs presented the audience with an assortment of colorful jokes and a foreboding economic forecast.

Downs projects another 3-5 years of depressed economic conditions, due to the myriad of issues that he believes stem from Americans’ unwillingness to accept the reality of the economic situation, to make sacrifices, and to encourage realistic solutions from politicians.

“Short run focus is a big weakness in American democracy,” states Downs, who undoubtedly sympathizes with the current situation and believes that “what we really need is a miracle of some kind.”

Downs elaborates, highlighting the factors that have added up to produce the current Great Recession. “Long run federal spending must be greatly reduced,” advocates Downs, but he recognizes that now is not the time to reduce the federal workforce and put more Americans out of a job.  Interestingly, Downs notes that the Clinton administration observed the largest increase in American employment of any president, even though taxes were raised on the wealthy twice during those eight years.  The economic disparity between classes has become greater with the lowest 20% of workers earning just 3.4% of total income and the highest 20% bringing in one half of the country’s total income.  Downs believes it is in part the wealthier Americans’ responsibility to make the country more equitable; otherwise, uprisings will continue to spread, similar to what’s been happening in Greece.

The discrepancy in incomes has resulted in the middle class borrowing too much to consume imported foreign goods, with consumption becoming too large a portion of the overall GDP (consumption had risen to 70% by 2009, a historically high level); this level of consumption was not sustainable and must remain at previous levels for the health of our overall economy.

America should be investing in “production, education, and new energy sources” to protect its future.

To avoid a future financial crisis, Downs recommends breaking up the largest banks to spread the wealth amongst the nation’s 8,195 financial institutions so that none are ever too big to require bailing out.  With 80% of US capital held by only 10 banks, history is bound to repeat itself if we do not act to break up financial monopolies.

Click below to read the rest of Downs’ key points, including information about the real estate market…

Continue Reading

Commercial Real Estate, Development, Executive Insight Series, Industry News, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Retail Real Estate

Executive Insight Series- Dennis Doyle

Dennis-Doyle“My life is lived from the inside out. My principle values, experience and leadership come from the inside, and guide my life on the outside. It’s an inside job. It seems that everyone is wired differently. Some of us want to make a lot of money, while others want to save the world and help people. You CAN do both! Everyone needs to figure it out. Work is a huge part of it. If you find the right work and path, life can be a real joy and blessing.”

Dennis Doyle, Executive Chairman of the Welsh Property Trust, started his career in real estate as an adolescent who spent his summers working construction for his neighbor, George Welsh. During that period, Mr. Doyle’s passion for construction and development grew exponentially, part of the credit, according to Mr. Doyle, belongs to his older brothers who forced him to work harder to keep up. He left real estate briefly to attend college on a football scholarship, with the intention of becoming a coach, however Mr. Doyle soon realized that this was not his true goal, and returned home to continue his career developing and constructing buildings. In 1977, Mr. Doyle and Mr. Welsh (same childhood neighbor) entered into a handshake agreement, that formed the Welsh Companies, and has shaped the last 30 years of Mr. Doyle’s life. Reflecting on this story, and on his subsequent career, Mr. Doyle lamented,  “I love being able to put my personal touch on buildings, and am very fortunate to have found my life’s passions and being able to continue working in this field.”

Continue Reading

Commercial Real Estate, Development, Executive Insight Series, Industry News, Property Management, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Retail Real Estate

Executive Insight Series: Boyd Stofer

Boyd Stofer - CEO Marquette Group

Boyd Stofer - CEO Marquette Group

“No one was doing anything, I mean no one was even talking about starting a new project. Sure I was scared, we paid too much for the building during the worst real estate market in my lifetime. However, we needed to play offense, someone had to make the first move, and it was us. That got a lot of attention, and we were able to get the building 90% leased before we started renovation, that’s just unheard of, and it worked to our benefit.”

The quotation above does a superb job in summing up the career, strategy, and philosophy of Boyd Stofer, president and CEO of the Marquette Real Estate Group. Over the past 32 years, Mr. Stofer has helped United Properties (Now part of the Marquette Group) grow into one of the most successful and profitable real estate development companies in the country. Attending a lecture from Mr. Stofer is somewhat like listening to a Harvard (one of his Ivy degrees) Economics professor give a semesters worth of lectures fast forwarded to a speed that condenses the information into one hour. During his talk it appeared as if he continued to talk as he inhaled, and didn’t miss a beat or misstate a figure as he outlined the micro and macro forces that are effecting the national commercial real estate market. His charisma stems directly from his incredible intelligence and ability to conceptualize and connect the vast set of variables that made up the contents of his talk, ending with the weaving of details to present the Marquette Group’s current standing and plans for the future. It’s no wonder that the Pohlad Family entrusts Mr. Stofer with a significant share of their fortune, as very few individuals can impart their razor sharp intellect and cunning in such a succinct and complete manor. It is highly unlikely that anyone in the room (full of real estate professionals, academics, and students) walked out questioning Mr. Stofer’s understanding of the real estate market, actually, it highly unlikely that anyone who meets him ever has doubtful thoughts.

Biography |

Mr. Stofer’s educational credentials mimics his career as nothing short of top tier. In 1971 he graduated from the Cornell School of Engineering, and followed it up with an MBA with Honors from Harvard. Immediately following his MBA program, Mr. Stofer was hired by Hines Interests, a national real estate development group based in Houston. After three years in Houston Mr. Stofer left and came to Minneapolis to join United Properties, then owned by the Hamm family. Since his hire, Mr. Stofer has led the companies development initiatives, and has amassed an amazing portfolio of work. In 1996 he was named president and CEO, since that time Mr. Stofer has grown and merged United Properties into what is now the Marquette Group. Today, the combined entities of the Marquette group employ over 1,000 people, has assets around $750M and services more than $40B worth of real estate loans. The current operational structure of the Marquette Group is the culmination of Mr. Stofer’s vision for a vertically integrated property firm that is unique in the services that it can provide. The vast array of real estate products that Marquette Group is far from novel, in fact it is probably the firms best financial hedge, in that the organization is prepared and capable of earning revenues in any market and any economic climate.

Continue Reading

Commercial Real Estate, Industry News, Real Estate Trends, Uncategorized

From Finance & Commerce: Minnesota Senate passes a cut in business property tax bills

The current political theater in the United State regarding the federal deficit, taxes, the budget (etc.) is one of the most important debates taking place right now and the outcomes from forthcoming legislation will have far reaching implications for the country playing a major role in defining who we are as a nation. Unfortunately, the only thing that lawmakers can agree on is that their is a tremendous problem, and a lack of action will have devastating effects on the US economy. Furthermore, many of the proposals and news stories that emerge from the medias coverage of this topic is little more than political gamesmanship, and insults the intelligence of the electorate by turning a complex subject into a handful of talking points, which use misleading statistics, irrelevant information,  and worst of all, fear mongering to appease the most extreme groups on both sides. By moving further away from the middle, which statistically and practically represents the average attitudes of Americans, politicians are jeopardizing the economic future of the US.

taxratings.stateThat said, when a news story is reported on the subject regarding a well reasoned and genuinely honest effort to ease some of the financial burden our government is facing, any educated and reasonable American must put their personal politics aside and objectively assess the merits of the proposed plan. In the April 5th edition of Finance & Commerce, Mark Anderson reports on a recent Minnesota State Senate bill that would phase out the state tax on commercial property. Currently, Minnesota is ranked 43rd by the Tax Foundation, a public policy think tank, on it’s overall business tax climate. This is a critical problem for the states economy, since 31.38% ($7.48B) of the states tax revenue comes from business taxes. Furthermore, Minnesota businesses are hiring new employees at a slower rate (.6%) than the national average. Attracting businesses to the state, who will hire Minnesotans and increase the states tax revenue is a priority that fortunately rises above politics and is one of the major goals of the current legislative session. The bill passed  37-26, representing a straight party line vote with Republicans voting for and Democrats against. The plan would reduce the statewide commercial property tax burden by $115M for 2012 and over the course of the next 10 year completely phase out the tax that will bring in an estimated $775M for the state this year (a conservative forward estimate, with 2.5% inflation and 2% economic growth for the state, would put the 2022 tax revenue loss at $1.204B).

Republicans argue that the tax savings will go directly into the hands of small business owners, providing the necessary free cash flow to hire additional workers, and reinvest in their business. Furthermore, Republicans are arguing that a reduction in the tax burden for businesses will help attract more businesses to the state. Democrats agree that it is necessary to promote Minnesota as a business friendly state, however they are suspect of the motives behind this legislation, as well as its implications for the state  budget and the programs that will be cut to offset the tax cut. According to John Marty, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Tax committee,

“Tax cuts do help job creation, but the revenue we’re losing would lead to job losses, too. It means layoffs of state and local government workers, and it hurts a number of things that support jobs. Revenue lost in the first two years of the phase-out, for instance, is nearly equivalent to cutbacks proposed in subsidies for sliding-fee child-care programs. That probably means child care businesses will close, but it also means that many workers won’t find affordable child care.”

Despite the bill clearing the Senate, the prevailing viewpoint at the capitol is that Governor Dayton will veto the legislation, and demand more concessions from the Republicans. However, Governor Dayton has surprised many conservatives and the business community by taking a pro-business stance on several major issues early in his term. At this point it is unknown how Mr. Dayton will respond to the legislation, but he is certainly interested in finding ways to improve the states economy, create jobs, and reduce the deficit. By focusing on these issues, and working with the legislators in office, Governor Dayton will doing his constituency a great favor.

To read the entire article click on this link

Commercial Real Estate, Industry News, Property Management, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Retail Real Estate, Uncategorized

Weekly Recap

A collection of the most important stories this week that are making headlines in the real estate industry

From the Chicago Tribune | Home improvement sales rebound- Lowe’s, the nations second largest home improvement retailer, is reporting a 15% increase in seasonal hiring, a sign that the home improvement business is stabilizing ahead of the greater real estate industry. This appears to be another strange aftereffect of the real estate crisis, with the article attributing the increase in home improvements to existing home owners opting to fix up their old homes, as opposed to buying a new home. Overall 1Q 2011 spending is expected to increase 9.1% to $125.1 billion.

From Calculated Risk | CoreLogic- House prices declined 2.7% in February, prices now 4.1% below 2009 lows- The bottom of the slide in housing prices is still being determined, as the most recent numbers from CoreLogic paint a dreary picture for potential home sellers. Overall, the mean selling price of homes across the country continues to plummet, with a decline of 6.7% in February 2011 compared to February 2010. However, as this blog and many other real estate analysts are pointing out, the news isn’t as grim when the market is properly quantified. Currently the percentage of distressed homes being sold is significantly higher than market averages, causing an overall decline in the mean home prices across the country. According to Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic.

“When you remove distressed properties from the equation, we’re seeing a significantly reduced pace of depreciation and greater stability in many markets.  Price declines are increasingly isolated to the distressed segment of thee market, mostly in the form of REO sales, as the stock of foreclosures is slowly cleared.”

CoreLogic has adjusted figures (which exclude the sale of distressed properties) showing a decline of .1% over the same period, which continues a trend towards stabilization and hopefully indicates positive gains in home owners equity moving forward. to read the entire report click here.

From the Star Tribune | Almost half of all March closed home sales in the Twin Cities were foreclosures- Relating to the previous article, the Star Tribune reports that 43% of home sales in March were distressed properties. This sent the median home price into a nosedive, dropping 15% to $140,000, however excluding distressed properties, the picture is a little brighter. Looking at previous March sales, without including 2010 (the new home owner tax credit created unusual demand), sales in March 2011 were up 6% and 15% for 2009 and 2008 respectively.

From the Wall Street Journal | Malls face surge in vacancies- From a record low vacancy rate of 5.1% in 2005 to todays less rosy 9.1%, mall owners are facing increased pressure due to the changing shopping behavior of Americans, as well a loss of customers in the exurbs of America’s largest cities.  One segment that appears to be regaining traction is the upscale mall industry, that has reduced its nationwide vacancy to 7%, although this is still above what is considered healthy in the sector. As technology and connectivity spreads to more individuals, retailers will be forced to ask serious questions about their business models, and the need for massive retail space in as many locations as possible.

Commercial Real Estate, Development, Executive Insight Series, Industry News, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Retail Real Estate, Uncategorized

Executive Insight Series: Bob Lux and the 14 Million Dollar Question About Block E

Bob Lux- Principal at Alatus Development

Bob Lux- Principal at Alatus Development

“So, what is the plan for Block E?”

A simple question that was definitely on every attendee’s mind at the most recent Real Estate Executive Insight Series. However, the answer isn’t so simple, and if it were not for Bob Lux’s (principal at Alatus LLC) charisma, intelligence, and experience in leading major, press-worthy development projects the answer might not have been as well received. As any gifted public figure would, Mr. Lux skirted the question, but in his sidestep, alluded to several important things concerning the future of Block E, as well as the kind of person Mr. Lux is. Before his answer can be assessed properly, it is important to understand Mr. Lux’s history, professional accomplishments, and his philosophy on development (and life).

Mr. Lux grew up in a Long Prairie, a small community in central Minnesota, a town that most likely does not have a building higher than the many crop silos that dot the agrarian landscape. Like many young men from small towns, Mr. Lux left home in search of success and the experience that can only be found in the “big city”. After earning his degree in Business Administration from the University of Minnesota, Mr. Lux returned to Long Prairie with the intention of starting a home building business in the area. He purchased a lumber yard with his father and began building farmers homesteads in the immediate area. Although this was quite different than the projects he would eventually oversee, Mr. Lux quickly learned the importance of adding value to differentiate his product, otherwise it would simply be a commodity.

After a short time at home the urge to return to city life became to great to resist, and once again, Mr. Lux left Long Prairie for the Twin Cities. His first employer, The Dominium Group, was developing high-density suburban real estate, which faced major issues surrounding obtaining approval from the community and local government for the rezoning of  land for this use. Suburban homeowners are very protective of their communities, and the amount of space that each homesite has was a reflection of the owners desire for privacy and quiet living. Mr. Lux’s first assignment was in Eagan, MN, where he faced opposition form the mayor as well as landowners surrounding the proposed site. To change the attitudes of the landowners surrounding the site, who were a critical stakeholder in the success of the project, Mr. Lux used a mixture of logic, emotional appeal, and financial acumen to reach out to each of the parties and work with them to develop a compromised plan that met the needs of everyone. In the end this project was approved, and through it, Mr. Lux learned one of the key lessons that has helped him throughout his career. During the lecture, he repeatedly cited the ability to listen to, and connect with people as the most important skill he has, and the main reason why projects fail or succeed.

Continue Reading

Commercial Real Estate, Development, Executive Insight Series, Industry News, Minnesota Real Estate Journal, Real Estate Trends, Retail Real Estate, Uncategorized, Upcoming Industry Events, Upcoming UST Events

Block E: A Deal Alatus Could Not Refuse

blocke7The short history of the building currently occupying the 600 block of Hennepin, know commonly as Block E,  in downtown Minneapolis is a staggeringly accurate metaphor paralleling the last decade of the greater real estate market. According to Minneapolis St. Paul Business Journal, the original cost of developing the site in 2001 (less the $36.25 million spent on the Graves Hotel which did not change ownership) was $105.75 million. When Alatus Development purchased the development in July, 2010 they paid a paltry $14 million, or roughly 13.23% of the original price. At the risk free rate of return (based on the 10 year T-bill which average 4.42% over the period) the investment in Block E would be worth $162.973 million, resulting in a savings of $148.973 million for Alatus in todays value. This investment appears to be a no brainer, but it is not without risk. Since opening, Block E has lost most of the anchor businesses that originally signed leases in the space including: Borders Books, Game Works, The Hard Rock Cafe, Applebees, and Hooters. The space which Game Works and Borders occupied is still vacant, presenting Alatus and Bob Lux, the lead developer on the project, with significant challenges in their attempt to turn the site into a successful retail operation. That said, the final price tag for the site was too attractive to pass on.

One significant factor that helped persuade Mr. Lux to move forward with the deal is the 550 heated underground parking spaces beneath Block E, at $25,455 per spot is inline with other parking structures around the city. Looking at the deal from this perspective, Alatus paid market rate for the parking, and got a deal sweetener that is quite impressive, approximately 213,000 sq/ft of retail space. Pricing it the other way, at $66 sq/ft, the retail space was purchased at a price that is almost inconceivable given Block E’s location at the heart of the downtown district and within walking distance of Target Field, The Target Center, and many of Minneapolis’s theaters and restaurants. Despite the obvious advantages in location, the previous owners at Block E have had serious difficulty maintaining profitable levels of business. Trying to figure out what to do with this space will certainly keep Mr. Lux up at night, until a solution that provides long term tenants can be derived. Continue Reading

Industry News, Real Estate Trends, Uncategorized

Weekly Update

Enjoy this list of articles and resources to ensure that you are up to date on the stories that are making headlines in the real estate industry

From Calculated Risk | Census 2010 Housing and Occupancy Data- The Census Bureau has released occupancy data from the 2010 census for 42 of the 50 states. This information is useful to gauge the extent of vacancies on a national and state level, and provide a trove of information for time series analysis. The article has an xls file of the data, as well as links to the Census website for more research. Finance and Commerce has a follow up to this story, in which they report exclusively on the vacancy and occupancy rates in the Minnesota market.

From Project Syndicate | Bubble Spotting- An interesting article by Robert Schiller  (cofounder of the Case-Schiller index) who shares his predictions of the next equity bubble, even though he points out several times in the article that predicting such events are nearly impossible. Despite this, he outlines several well reasoned arguments and points out some interesting correlations in market behavior.

From WSJ and NAR

From WSJ and NAR

From The Wall Street Journal | Discounts Expected in Spring Market A nationwide drop in housing sales and median home prices is not great news for the real estate market. However, looking at a more positive repercussion of this trend is enticing potential buyers off the fence with low borrowing rates, and prices that match the market realistic valuation of the property.

From Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors | Weekly Market Activity Report- Get the latest numbers on the twin cities housing market, as well as trends and analysis from MAAR.

From Finance and Commerce | Troubled Assets ‘Still Quite Plentiful’ in CRE Market- Finance and Commerce reports on the high volume of CRE inventory classified as distressed debt. Although there are many challenges for buyers and sellers in this market, there is also tremendous upside, due to the deep discounts available. With the right strategy, and enough equity to qualify for bank financing, investors have a huge opportunity to earn strong returns in the market.

From the NYT and HSH Associates

From the NYT and HSH Associates

From The New York Times | More Borrowers Are Opting for Adjustable-Rate Mortgages- Pinpointed as one of the major causes of the record breaking number of foreclosures over the past three years, ARM’s have been shunned and avoided by recent home buyers. However, this trend is reversing, as banks are beginning to offer more conservative ARM’s that do not include any of the gimmicks that enticed unqualified buyers to borrow too much money. The shift towards marketing ARM’s as a prime investment option for high credit borrowers is a positive sign that lenders and buyers appear to have learned some lessons from the last crisis.

Development, Industry News, Property Management, Real Estate Trends, Retail Real Estate, Uncategorized

Real Estate Executive Insights: An Insider’s View of Commercial RE Investing

speaker_AndyDeckas “Never waste a crisis, they all have opportunity.”

It is a common occurrence during difficult times, and there is something very human about perceiving the current situation and lamenting that it is the worst or most extreme crisis in history. Although most of the time this can be chalked up to theatrics or over reaction after hearing Mr. Andy Deckas, President of Founders Properties,

Moody's CPPI -- Pre and Post Bubble

Moody's CPPI -- Pre and Post Bubble

speak about what happened in commercial real estate (CRE) over the past seven years, one can only hope that he is correct in his analysis that, at least for CRE, the market is moving forward and recovering from the difficulties of the last few years. Mr. Deckas gave a superb analysis of the root causes of CRE bubble, using a combination of personal narrative and hard data to support his claim, while being very specific in the way he defined the crisis in the context of the greater economy, and the world in general. His labeling of the fluctuations in CRE market, as the worst in history, based on the criteria of loss of equity, disruption of the industry, and systemic implications on the greater economy quantifies his claim, and despite the pitfalls of making such sweeping assertions, seems to be reasonable. Despite Mr. Deckas’s sober analysis of the recent state of the CRE market, his presentation had a positive tone that included optimism about current opportunities, as well as providing a recap of his fascinating career in the industry.

Resume | Mr. Deckas’s credentials as a commercial investor date back to beginning of the industry, when financial professionals were just realizing the value of securitizing CRE. Mr. Deckas earned his BA from Northwestern University, and planned on continuing his education by earning an MBA until he received an offer that he could not refuse. A personal connection encouraged Mr. Deckas to contact Tom Crawley, who was an executive at Heitman Financial. Mr. Crawley’s pitch was simple, come work for me, and in two years I promise you will learn more than you ever could about CRE in academia. Mr. Deckas agreed, and part of his initial responsibilities included working on raising the capital needed to construct the Mall of America. After nine years moving up through the ranks at Heitman, Mr. Deckas left the firm and moved to OPUS, which at the time  was one of the nations largest real estate developers. His first role at OPUS was creating and growing OPUS financing operation. At OPUS, Mr. Deckas moved the focus of there customer targeting from institutional investors, which were flush with capital but also with a highly bureaucratic structure that impeded flexibility, to high net worth, private equity. It was here that Mr. Deckas found an untapped niche of the market, linking investors eager to increase returns, with securities that offered high upside, with (at the time) minimal risk. Mr. Deckas’s final move brought him to Founders Properties, were he serves as the President of Operations.

The resume that Mr. Deckas possesses, especially the quick ascension to the c-suite in every firm he worked for, provides credibility for his opinions and the analysis of the situation on a macro level. Raising capital for funds in the $100M-$200M dollar range places Mr. Deckas in a unique echelon of individuals who were present in the board rooms and at the job sites of developments that represented the center of the looming decline of the industry

Continue Reading

Development, Industry News, Real Estate Trends, Upcoming UST Events, UST Program News

The Week: March 5-13

Here is an aggregated list of the most influential stories that are shaping the conversation about the real estate industry…

From the Mortgage Bankers AssociationMBA Weekly Application Survey – The MBA index of mortgage applications has risen at an adjusted rate of 15.5% over the week prior. Furthermore, the seasonally adjusted four-week moving average of the market index is up 2.7%.

Fed Household Net Worth - from Calculated Risk

From Calculated RiskQ4 Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate assets off $6.3 trillion from peak A telling statistic that shows the current total worth of American’s homes has fallen to levels comparable to vales after the dot-com bubble. Looking into the period before this extraordinary market period, the last time housing equity equaled a similar percentage of the total GDP, a measure that controls for inflation as well as other economic changes, was 1997.

From the Bigger Pockets Blog | Real Estate by the Numbers (March 5-13)- As noted in the last post, a report from Finance & Commerce, new foreclosure filings are down across the country, and new Mortgage applications are up. This combination is good news, signaling more Americans consider their financial prospects positive enough to buy a home, and on the flip-side, less Americans are losing their investments…

From the Economist | Bricks and Slaughter– A unique editorial from the Economist, that poses serious questions about the conventional wisdom surrounding the single largest investment most citizens in rich world countries make, their homes. Looking at the issue from the perspectives of debt financing; and the intertwined nature of the economy, mortgage prices + availability, and real estates prices the create an accelerating effect on a home buyers ROI, the editors argue that serious modifications are still needed before the market can truly stabilize.

Continue Reading