text:
Oil drops to around $83 on expectations Iran will maintain some exports

Oil drops to around $83 on expectations Iran will maintain some exports

Oil dropped to around $83 a barrel on Monday, pressured by expectations that some Iranian oil exports will keep flowing after the U.S. reimposes sanctions, easing a strain on supplies.

Two companies in India, a big buyer of Iranian oil, have ordered barrels in November, India’s oil minister said on Monday.

The Trump administration is considering waivers on sanctions, a U.S. government official said on Friday.

“One way or another, it looks as though India is going to take some Iranian crude,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix, adding that the development was helping oil to “retrace some of the price surge we saw last week.”

Brent crude, the international benchmark LCOc1, was down $1.07 to $83.09 per barrel at 0817 GMT. It hit a four-year high of $86.74 last week.

U.S. crude CLc1 was down 93 cents at $73.41.

U.S. sanctions will target Iran’s crude oil exports from Nov. 4, and Washington has been putting pressure on governments and companies worldwide to cut their imports to zero.

“This is one of the single biggest supportive factors for crude,” said analysts at JBC Energy of the U.S. re-imposition of Iran sanctions. “Having said that, it may well be that we are already in the most supportive phase coming from this change and the effect will soon begin to ease.”

Oil also dropped as investors focused on rising output from other producers, such as top exporter Saudi Arabia, to compensate for lower Iranian supplies.

Saudi Arabia said last week it plans to raise production in November from October output of 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd), indicating Riyadh will be boosting its supply to the highest ever level.

“Chatter that Saudi Arabia has replaced all of Iran’s lost oil” is weighing on prices, said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

Concern that the U.S.-Chinese trade war could slow down economic growth and hit oil demand also weighed on the market, traders in Asia said. Chinese equities fell sharply on Monday.

Oil has been supported by concern that the Iranian export loss will leave a thinner margin of unused production capacity to deal with supply shocks. The bulk of spare capacity is held by Saudi Arabia.

These concerns remain supportive.

Innes warned that limited spare production to deal with further supply disruptions meant “the capacity is quickly declining due to Asia’s insatiable

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Square Circle Forum

It’s that time of year when we start to think of gift giving to

special people. Joy Evans posted a great idea  in

Let’s Talk Shop, so we have come up with the following gift

suggestion for some VERY special people.

At various times throughout the year, our team in South Africa worry that financial difficulties might affect what we are able to do for the children. This Christmas, why not give them a priceless gift - Peace of Mind.

Please give whatever you can afford, as every dollar helps, whether it be $5, $10, $15 or more. Let us know in this discussion if you have sent a gift and please make a note "Peace of Mind” on your Paypal payment. We will ask Leanne to keep us updated on the total and it will be posted in this discussion about once a week.

Gifting ends December 31, 2018.

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I'll start the ball rolling (or should I say start the dove flying) by sending some Peace of Mind today.

Thank you Joy for your thoughtful suggestion and Anne for this oportunity to give a little 'Peace of Mind' to Ronda and her wonderful team in SA. I will send a little Peace of Mind tonight.

I have just sent a little Peace of Mind to Ronda and our SA volunteers ... xo

Thank you Chris and Glo for sending some Peace of Mind.

Thank you for this fundraising campaign to give Rhonda and the SA volunteers some peace of mind regarding the finances for KAS!  I don't have a Pay Pal account so I was just going to do a one-time donation.  However, the amount looks strange in American dollars when I type in my donation.  Should I instead make some purchases in the KAS Shop for my donation?

Joy, you could certainly do a one-time donation using the Donate button. Once you have done that, post in the discussion (amount not needed) and I will email Leanne that your donation is earmarked for Peace of Mind. It will be less confusing to track our total than if you make Shop Purchases.

I am not sure what you mean when you say "the amount looks strange".  Could you explain further? If you don't want to explain here in the discussion, you could send me a private message by going to my Page.

Thanks again for a great suggestion

I don't really understand how we should make this payment. Do you mean we should click on the Donate button and follow that process, but then where do we make the Peace of Mind note?

Hi Patricia. I clicked the Donate button for a one off payment, then there is a box to type message to 'seller', so I wrote that my donation was for the Peace of Mind Appeal.

Thanks, Christine. I've just had a go but I don't understand why the comma is in amongst the noughts so now I'm not sure how to type the right amount. I'm feeling a bit of an idiot but I don't want to send way too much or way too little. More help please!!

Patricia, I'm have the same problem with the comma displaying which concerns me that the amount may not be correct that I'm trying to send.  I posted a message on Anne Powell's page so hopefully she can help both of us.  I really do want to give a donation to this fundraising campaign!

Ladies, I usually use Paypal, so I am a newbie to donating by credit card.  When I went to the donate button and typed in the amount, I too got the comma.  I can only assume that when using a credit card the system only deals in round dollars so you cannot put a decimal and 00 cents.

Under the amount (if you are using a credit card to pay) you will see a line that reads "Instructions to seller".Click on that and you can type Peace of Mind there

If you are worried, perhaps you could try sending only $5 to see what happens.  You will most likely get some sort of confirmation from your credit card company.and the if you wish to donate more, you will feel safe doing it.

Ladies, I also use Paypal so am not much help here.  Hopefully Anne's suggestion will work.  If not, I know we have a couple of incredible "techies" in our midst ;)

Perhaps either Andrea or Linda will have some helpful suggestions???  xo

The Donate button provides 2 options:

  1. One time donation
  2. Monthly subscription               [click the box]

Because of PayPal/banking fees, KAS asks that your donation be 5USD [or more].  Anything less, means your donation is eaten up with fees.  Thank you!

Our goal is to remove the monthly deficit that Ronda and her team have to deal with. You can:

1. Make a donation whenever you are able.

2. Sign up for an ongoing monthly donation (subscription).

3. Shop at the KasShop!

Please follow this discussion for monthly updates, current financial reports and ideas on what we can all do to help. Click link :

Baskets of Yarn
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Available in small, medium and large!

The JANUARY 2019 Squares List is available.

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 See the 2019

Visit the KAS Pattern Book for free patterns.…

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Special Event Security

Special Response Security provides a variety of services for any occasion – ranging from large concert venues to small weddings, parties, or whatever the case may be; we have programs and services to fit your needs. Our special event security duties include crowd control, door monitoring, ushering, screening attendees, working the barricaded areas, VIP protection, and parking lot/traffic control.

Special Response Security has professional guards for events in Austin, Texas

Planning security for a special event requires a tailored approach that balances effective, non-excessive security measures against a realistic assessment of the likelihood of threats or conditions to the event. A “one size fits all” approach to security fails to consider the very aspects of your special event that makes it unique. Our experienced staff ensures that a full site visit and threat assessment is done prior to your special event, to include all options explored taking in account any additional requests.

Our goal is to ensure your special event is fun, safe, and enjoyable without any security concerns.

Some security providers hire temps and people from placement agencies to cover your event often times without even training or knowing them; and other security companies will send down or drop off a few last minute guards in a “Security” or “Staff” windbreaker the day of your event – again, with very little to no training.

Although the state will license ex-felons and many companies will employ them without your knowledge, we refuse to employ ex-felons at our agency regardless how many years ago the conviction was. Most special event or event staff companies can’t make that statement – something to think about.

Special Response Security undergoes an entire process days and weeks prior to your event to ensure everything runs smoothly. Your special event is NEVER a time to try out new hires or “temp hires,” as anything can happen. We utilize veteran employees and experienced representatives who provide quality service to our clients.

Don’t add stress to your “To Do List.”

Your guards should be the last thing you worry about during your special event.

For a stress-free security service, give us a call today!

                                1 (866) 288-5400 Toll Free


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January 13, 2012

Challenge 24 Out with the old

Happy New Year to all of our papercrafting friends.
Firstly can we say a massive goodbye to our fearless leader Jan! She has had to leave us due to family commitments and she will be hugely missed. She has helped to make this blog the success that it is and we will do our best to keep it in good hands, goodbye sweetie and take care!
This week the team has turned the blog over to me, Chris. Awfully trusting soles, they are. So I get to pick the challenge theme and the top three from our last challenge. Picking the theme isn't difficult and I'll get to that shortly but picking the top three is extremely difficult. You all work so hard and make such beautiful cards, if I could pick you all I would but I can't so here, in no particular order are my top three:

And who were our lucky winners? Well Mr random popped out number 25 thats was Penny for the prize from the pretty little ribbon shop and also number 229 and that was Deonna for the prize from Bugaboo well done ladies please contact us at the e mail in the sidebar to claim your prizes!

A new year is that time for beginnings, to make those resolutions to lose weight, exercise more, make holiday cards early. Some of you have probably made the resolution to use up your stash before you buy any more stuff (crazy, I know but other people do that). So for this week the challenge is
Out with the Old
Use what was in your stash last year, so technically you can use something you got as a Christmas gift but we'd really like to see you use some of that stuff that's been hanging around for awhile. I've got lots of stuff that falls into that category. How about you?

Our wonderful sponsor this wk is the fabulous Lili of the valley who have offered a wonderful gift voucher to spend in their store!
So what have the fabulous DT been making for us...
Thanks for coming by again, we hope you can join us this time!

  1. Stunning DT work ladies you have all done a superb job! Hugs Rebekah xx

  2. Thanks for a great challenge and lovely Dt work! Judy x

  3. Thanks for the fun challenge - always appreciate the opportunity and encouragement to use up my stash - in mine the patterned papers, rhinestones and ribbon have been in my stash for a while. Lovely samples from the DT!

  4. What is the reality behind this theme?
    My hubby ´has been hanging around for awhile´ too. *LOL*
    In the end, I´ve used one of my old patterned papers. Thank you for this challenge, girls!

  5. Great challenge and great reminder to use our older stash! Thanks for the super cute samples by the design team!

  6. Gorgeous cards so far a great challenge

  7. Great challenge idea....old instead of the new!
    Joyce xx

  8. Fun challenge! Great way to use old supplies. Thanks for the challenge and the beautiful inspiration!

  9. Thanks for the fun challenge! Lovely samples from the DT!

  10. Super fun challenge! Thank you DT for such inspiring work. Have a great weekend.

  11. Great idea for a challenge, and really lovely DT inspiration. I'm afraid I misread your "rules" and thought you could enter twice provided there was only one of each type of project (I have a gift bag at entry #137 and a card at entry #152) I'll leave it up to you which one gets deleted :-( I'm sorry to have caused any inconvenience, Donna

  12. Is this closed? I don't see mr linky... Her is my submission incase I'm not too late.
    Karen C

  13. Such beautiful cards! Really inspiring!!
    Please find my creation here:

    Have a great weekend,

We truly appreciate any comments you leave for the challenge blog. Thank you from all of us here at Stampin for the Weekend.


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Friday, September 17, 2010

Let it snow... let it snow.... Wait! Let it Snow?

Good Morning!  I hope you're all doing well.  It's Friday and its time to get ready for the weekend.  Now, about that title.... what the heck do I mean, let it snow?  I don't mean snow - not really.  But who can resist this bargain digi from Deedee's Digis?  This is just too darn cute!

See what I mean?  I just love snowmen - I'd have my whole house decorated in snowmen if I knew I could get away with it.  He's just a dollar and comes with a great sentiment, you can find him here.  Here's what I did with the set...

Using the sketch at 365 Cards, I took the sentiment and divided it up so that I could do the strips across the patterned paper.  Then I cut out a snowflake (SVG by Penny Duncan) and painted it with Stickles.  I finished it off with the cute little snowman.  This card is the 2nd in my collection called "One Postage Stamp, Please."  This one, however, will not be included in what I send to Operation Write Home - it has glitter.  Believe it or not, glitter on our soldiers uniforms can jeopardize their position, so please, if you're helping in the effort - do not include glitter on your cards.

Card Stock:  Neenah Classic Crest, blue (Recollections)
Paper:  Snowflake (Open stock at Michaels)
Copics:  B000, BG09, C8, C10, E29, E34, E57, G02, G05, R27, YR16
Tools:  Cricut/SCAL, SVG file by Penny Duncan, corner rounder (CM)
Embellishments:  Artic Stickles (Ranger)

I thank you for stopping by today and I hope your Friday is fabulous!!

8 Encouraging Thoughts:

Jacki Randolph said...

Oh he is a cutie!! Really like how you split the sentiment on to the strips. That snowflake is beautiful all glittered up! Great Christmas one-stamp card!

Elizabeth (Beth) Moore said...

Only if it snows on the beautiful card!!! Love it! We'd be honored if you joined our following at Papercraft Star and entered some of your fabulous projects in our challenges!

Katie Skiff said...

I probably shouldn't even post, b.c if this rain turns into snow, you are so in trouble!! LOL... I am not ready for snow, unless it's cute like this card!! *wink*

Sheri (a.k.a PaperCrafty) said...

Adorable Christmas card!! I love the fun frosty image and great snowflake!!

Micki said...

ok, I swear Deedee created this cute little snowman and sentiment with me in mind, lol. (I'll have to ask her, hehehe) I am always saying that..... I love snow.

Your card is gorgeous. love that glitter.

Theresa said...

Oohhh!! Super nice. Love the snowflake.

1CardCreator said...

Cute card, I love the coloring and the way you mounted it on to the snowflake, great idea! ~Diane

Anonymous said...

This is FANTASTIC, Mel! It's so neat how you split the greeting into stripes, and that wonderful snowflake you created. Such a beautiful card!!!

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What Can You Say?
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What Can You Say?: America's National Conversation on Race

John Hartigan Jr.

We are in a transitional moment in our national conversation on race. Despite optimistic predictions that Barack Obama's election would signal the end of race as an issue in America, the race-related news stories just keep coming. Race remains a political and polarizing issue, and the sprawling, unwieldy, and often maddening means we have developed to discuss and evaluate what counts as “racial” can be frustrating. This book examines a watershed year of news stories, taking these events as a way to understand American culture and challenge our existing notions of what is racial—or not. The boo ... More

Keywords: race, America, Barack Obama, American culture, news stories, Don Imus, Rutgers, Jena, Louisiana, protests

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2010 Print ISBN-13: 9780804763363
Published to Stanford Scholarship Online: June 2013 DOI:10.11126/stanford/9780804763363.001.0001

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

John Hartigan Jr., author


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Rationale for synthesis design of tooling from universal jigs on the basis of a modular representation of the set of surfaces of part to be machined on CNC machines

Considered the principle of decomposition of digital product model to components surface with a description of their functional characteristics with a view to creating an automated selection of devices.

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Catholic Identity

Catholicity can be interpreted in a myriad of ways. At St Augustine, we understand "Catholic" to mean:

Local & Universal
St Augustine is located at a vital centre of the African continent; it draws life and meaning from its African origins and renders its educational vision relevant, in particular, to South African context. But it also functions within a Catholic Intellectual Tradition which extends beyond localities and seeks to engage with all ages and cultures in its universal pursuit of the whole truth. We do so within a consortium of Catholic Universities on the African continent (ACUHIAM) and worldwide (IFCU), many of which are among the most highly ranked universities in the world.
The fact that St Augustine is a Catholic institution does not mean it is exclusivist or parochial. On the contrary, our rootedness in the Catholic ethos allows us to be truly open to people of all faiths (or none), of all cultures, ethnicities, and social statuses. To be 'Catholic' in an academic context means to search for the 'truth running through everything' in order to better understand the here and now and, ultimately, to enable its transformation.

Traditional & Contemporary
Established on the edge of the new millennium (1999), St Augustine seeks to address both perennial and contemporary questions of human life and quest for meaning. It does so cognisant of an age old tradition of learning, what we call the 'Catholic Intellectual Tradition', yet fully engaged with contemporary methods of research and ennquiry relevant to the challenges of our day. Thus it aspires to bring forth 'Wisdom ever ancient, ever new' (St Augustine of Hippo).

Holistic & Personal
The concern of St Augustine extends to the individual within the entirety of their personal development, while always keeping in mind needs of a broader community. The integration of personal gifts, requisite skills, social awareness, critical appraisal as well as respect for the human person's dignity and spiritual growth form a comprehensive whole directing the formation of each student. The small student numbers, personalised tuition, committed faculty staff, and accommodating facilities likewise insure that the needs and concerns of each student can be addressed. At St Augustine we see that mission of making the whole person grow as organically connected to our service towards the entire academic community, local communities as well as the South African society at large.

Ethical & Critical
Our mission at St Augustine is underpinned by the following values: human dignity (the freedom and dignity of the individual); solidarity (mutual connection, inclusiveness and obligation to each other); stewardship (responsibility and accountability for the common good); justice (including the preferential option for the poor); critical realism and creative, imaginative thinking. Feeling responsible for the shape of the young South African democracy, we address critically – in our teaching and research – basic social problems such as the marginalisation of Africa and its peoples, unemployment, social insecurity, poverty, land issues, democratisation, and human rights violations. Our educational offerings respond to the need to form reflective citizens able to participate fully in democratic process and cultural development, and in particular to the need for ethical leaders able to face the challenges of corruption, HIV/AIDS, poverty, and education with integrity and courage.

Missional & Mystical
St Augustine exists for the service of its students. It seeks to educate them so that they can become morally responsible leaders who, in turn, will be of service within their own communities, South African society, and indeed the world community. Put simply, our mission is to prepare our students to embark on their own life missions, in which – by thinking critically, acting wisely, and working skilfully – they will be the advocates of service to the common good.
While open to people of all faiths or none, the educational mission of St Augustine emerges from and remains informed by our own Christian roots, including its deepest, mystical, dimension. Inherent in the Catholic Intellectual Tradition is an openness to the transcendent [i.e., 'existing beyond'], which believers identify with God. Far from proselytising, we attempt to make our students aware of the possibility of relationship with that transcendent dimension of reality through which wisdom and compassion may come to ground all human endeavour and mission.


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BISAC Mappings to Dewey

BISAC Mappings to Dewey

The 2016 edition of the BISAC Subject Headings List is newly available. We anticipate being able to update our mappings to reflect the 2016 edition within the next few months.

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Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Beautiful Butterflies and Artists that have Influenced me.

   As a wildlife artist I have always looked to nature for my main source of inspiration and as a child one artist in particular had a great influence on me, 'Charles Frederick Tunnicliffe' was a prolific artist and illustrator who lived and worked during the first half of the 20th century and I came across his work through collecting tea cards as a child. My mother and grandmother always bought 'Brooke Bond' tea and I would excitedly anticipate the opening of each fresh packet of PG Tips so as to add a new card to my growing collection!
Tunnicliffe's birds and animals were so beautifully painted that for many children, not only were they wonderful to look at but they were a great educational tool as well! Later I discovered Archibald Thorburn and Peter Scott and the beautiful bird paintings of Roland Green. When studying art at school I became aware of the landscapes of the French impressionists and the masterpieces of  English artists such as Turner, Girtin and Constable. Marine painters such as Edward Seago and John Wilson Carmichael and the watercolours of John Sell Cottman have always filled me with awe and amazement. Latterly I have been very much inspired and influenced by modern wildlife artists such as Lars Jonsson, Tim Wootton, Nick Derry, John Threlfall and the brilliant Scottish artist Keith Brockie. I am fortunate enough to know some of these artists personally and have met and had critique of my work from some of them and much encouragement and sound advice! The Society of Wildlife Artists have also been a great source of inspiration. When I paint butterflies and insects and also botanical subjects I am mindful of the work of lesser known Hertfordshire artist Gordon Beningfield whose style is so delightful and skill so accomplished that the insects seem to fly off the paper. There are many talented artists working today who constantly amaze me but are too numerous to mention here. One only has to look on Facebook or surf the web to understand what I mean!
Common Blues and Small Copper butterflies with Forget me nots.
I have been out and about with pencil gouache and watercolour during the summer months and the results are seen in these paintings of some of my favourite butterflies and wild flowers. Most were painted on my local patch in Hertfordshire except for the Purple Hairstreaks which I found on an Oak tree at The Lodge in Bedfordshire. I have been giving regular art demonstrations at the RSPB headquarters at THE LODGE, Sandy in Bedfordshire throughout the spring and summer and I hope to be taking an art class there on Sunday September 20th. It hasn't been a particularly favourable year for butterflies with persistent wet weather most of the time however, I did manage to catch a few dry days sketching and painting and also taking photographs to use at home!
Small Coppers and Harebells.

Common Blue and Clouded Yellow.

Purple Hairstreaks on English Oak.

Green-Veined Whites and Small Copper.

My up coming demo this month.

 Come paint with me!

Saturday, 11 April 2015

A New Spring is sprung.

 I can't believe its been a whole year since my last post! I guess I've been somewhat preoccupied with personal and family events? Hopefully things will start to settle down and I can get back into a regular routine? I thought I'd start off by updating my blog and publishing some of my recent paintings some of which I made while exhibiting at the RSPB headquarters at 'THE LODGE' near Sandy in Bedfordshire. I have also been sketching birds of prey with particular attention to a pair of Common Buzzards that have a nest not far from where I live in Hertfordshire. Buzzards and Red Kites have been doing exceptionally well here recently and I see them quite frequently. So far, I have also seen Short Eared Owl, Rough Legged Buzzard, Marsh Harrier, Hen Harrier, Merlin, Osprey, Peregrine Falcon, Little Owl, Sparrow Hawk, Tawny Owl and Kestrel all on my regular local birding trips. Last year a pair of Hobbies nested at 'THE LODGE' alongside a pair of Ravens and both pairs successfully raised young! Everyone is hoping that the same thing happens again this year?
Female Merlin at Therfield Heath.

Peregrine. Regularly seen in Stevenage over the winter.

Red Kites on my patch in Hertfordshire.

Hobby at the Visitor Centre, THE LODGE.

Greater Pecker at THE LODGE.

Ravens at THE LODGE.

Little Owl, Knebworth Estate.

Spotted Flycatchers at THE LODGE.

Linnets and Thrift on the Norfolk Coast.

Greenfinches on feeders at THE LODGE.

Pied Wagtails on my patch last year.

Chaffinches in the garden.

Tree Creeper at THE LODGE.


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God Created You For Eternal Life

posted in: Inspiration | 1

God is a very persistent giver. He is so persistent, in fact, that He wants to give you everything that He has.  This list is limitless and reaches beyond our biggest dreams and most expansive thoughts because God is both infinite and eternal. So when He promises to give us everything that He has, only limited by how much we want, that doesn’t just mean some goodness or some mercy — it means He wants to give us everything.

God’s promises make clear that He works everyday to give us things like,

Happiness.  Joy.  Peace.  Abundance.  Wisdom.  Increase.  Love.  Vitality.  Effectiveness.  Influence.  Insight.  Creativity.  Empowerment.  Opportunity.  Justice.  Relationships.  Friendship.

And — Eternal Life.

When faced with our own mortality, we can feel small in comparison to God’s immortality, until we realize that His immortality is on the list.  Not only does God want to give us all the good things this temporary life has to offer, God wants to give us His immortality as well.

You were not created to live for just a short time.  You were not created to exist and then pass away.  God created you to live forever.

That is why, when He explained His personal investment strategy to His disciples, He advised them,

Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth…store up for yourselves treasures in heaven.  – Matthew 6:19-21

God wants to work with you to provide you with lasting health, lasting wealth, and lasting life.  God wants to invest in you in ways that will provide permanent, eternal returns. God is not in it just for the short term.  God’s perspective is eternity.  God’s will for you is to continue providing His blessings in ever increasing abundance for the rest of your life, which is the rest of eternity.

When we die, we rise.

Perhaps the single greatest witness of Jesus’ life, was His death.  It wasn’t a matter of opinion.  It wasn’t a theological argument or a healing miracle like He had done during His life.  It wasn’t just a conflict between men and God over religion and government and the matters of this life.  It wasn’t a philosophical point of contention over the nature of His kingdom, whether it was of this world or not.  At the end of the day, everyone observing the execution was sure of one thing, Jesus Christ was finished. His followers fled to their own homes and returned to their lives as best they could.  The leadership and those who had worked so hard to kill him, had some remaining worries about what might happen if stories started circulating that might make His influence after His death greater than it had been before.  But no one doubted the fact that Jesus was dead.

Jesus’ death was His final testimony to who He actually is.  It was the living witness of His power and identity.  Because on that third day following His death, the lifeless, bloodied, and pierced body of Christ rose under His own power, walked out of the tomb, and ascended to heaven — showing us the way.

This was not just a man.  Jesus Christ rose because He is the one true God and eternal life.

When we embrace Jesus Christ as our one and only God, when we choose to walk in His footsteps and embrace His will for our lives, when we first obey His commands and so become His friends.  Then when our lifeless bodies are laid to rest in the tomb, we too will rise under His power, walk out of our tombs, and ascend to live forever in heaven just like He showed us we could.

We do not worship a God of the dead, but of the living.  You were created to live forever — its just a matter of you wanting to.

Follow Steve Simons:

Christian Speaker, Author, Pastor, Leader. "God's Answers Are Always Simple. God's Answers Always Work." Sharing the Good News of Jesus Christ, the one and only God.

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  1. Kathy Simons

    I love the truth that “God is a persistent giver.” I am awed by the limitless gifts in store for us if we only ask and use them in our lives. This is a beautiful reminder that God can help us overcome any of the limits we feel in our lives. What a freeing thought!

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31 May 2016
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If you have always hand washed and dried your dishes due to a lack of a dishwasher, moving into a home equipped with this appliance can cause worries to arise with every use. The dishwasher may frequently function in unexpected ways, causing you to believe that the appliance has gone on the fritz. Since that is more than likely not the case, resist the urge to allow the worries to turn into panic about inevitable appliance repairs. Instead, read on to learn about the three following commonly suspected dishwasher issues that are often just the way it is designed to operate.

Standing Water In The Bottom Tub

After emptying your dishwasher, you may catch a glimpse of standing water in the bottom of the tub, causing worry about the drainage abilities of your appliance. Fortunately, most dishwashers are designed to retain about one cup of water in the tub beneath the bottom rack. The standing water helps keep the seals around the drainage piping moist and in good condition.

If the dishwasher drained all the way, the seals would end up drying out and cracking, which would likely cause water to leak beneath the appliance. Water retention above the one cup limit, however, could point to a potential clog in the drain lines or filter. The float at the bottom of the tub could also be stuck open with food debris, causing the remaining rinse water to remain at a higher level than normal.

Prolonged Hum Before Starting

Upon selecting the wash cycle and pressing the start button, you likely expect the dishwasher to immediately kick on and start spraying fresh water onto the dishes. Upon hearing a constant hum instead, you might start to worry the appliance has ceased working. Dishwashers typically begin by sucking out the rinse water left in the bottom of the tub before commencing the new wash cycle. The hum you hear is very likely the motor siphoning the excess water through the drain lines.

If the dishwasher has not been used in a day or so, the motor may also prime the fresh water lines before starting up. The hum should stop after a few moments, after which you will hear the dishwasher begin to send fresh water cascading over the dishes in the top and bottom racks. If the hum continues for more than a few minutes, your dishwasher may need the control panel repaired or replaced.

Dishes Not Completely Dry

If you open your dishwasher and see water spots over the dishes, you may suspect it is in need of repair or replacement. Thankfully, that is not likely the case. Your dishwasher's drying cycle is actually optimized for a particular number of dishes arranged in a specific order. The amount and spacing of the dishes you place in the racks can impact the performance of this important cycle.

You can look at the owner's manual to see how the dishwasher manufacturer suggests loading your dishes in the top and bottom racks. The manual may even suggest placing the silverware facing up or down, depending on the shape of the basket and position of the spray arms. Try arranging your dishes as directed to see if that rectifies the problem. If not, your dishwasher may need the heating element tested and replaced.

Scheduling Preventive Appliance Maintenance

To prevent feelings of panic from arising in response to suspected dishwasher problems, schedule regular maintenance calls with a repair technician from a company like Goldman  Appliances Inc. The maintenance visits should include a thorough inspection that helps identify worn or damaged parts before they cause a problem. The repair tech will clean the filter, flush the drain lines and check the function of the dishwasher to ensure it is in good working condition anytime you need to run a load of dishes. When a problem does arise, your tech will be well-versed with the condition of your dishwasher's internal components, which can help reduce your cost and time investment for the required repair tasks.


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Non-Coverage of Place (Other Country) As previously discussed, the 4th Amendment protects US citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures. There are 10 categories with various subcategories to acknowledge when contemplating… Read More

April 11, 2018

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Reasonable v. Unreasonable Search? In the last blog post we discussed the basics of the 4th Amendment which governs searches and seizures. To recap, the 4th Amendment protects US citizens… Read More

Search & Seizure There are 27 Amendments in the United States Constitution. The first 10 are referred to as the Bill of Rights. In this post we will be discussing… Read More

Felon-in-Possession Charge Used for Felony Murder In a past blog we described what felony murder is in Missouri. To recap, under Missouri statutes, if an individual commits or attempts to… Read More

New Law Forces Hundreds of Sex Offenders to Wear GPS Device In 2017, the Missouri Criminal Code was substantially revised for the first time in decades.  With the countless changes,… Read More

What is the Diminished Capacity Defense in Missouri? In Missouri, there are two defenses available to the accused that are often confused. They are Insanity and Diminished Capacity. The first… Read More

Closing Arguments: Drinking Age in USA H|W attorneys discuss why the drinking age is set at 21 and explore if that should be changed. Many countries have the age set… Read More

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Missouri Search Warrant Application Requirements In order to obtain a search warrant, a law enforcement officer must apply to a judge. There are several requirements that Missouri law dictates when… Read More

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Every Breath You Take (Paperback)

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Three years ago, Virginia Wakeling was found dead in the snow. Police soon discovered that she'd been thrown from the roof during the Met Gala, but no one has ever been arrested for her murder. Although suspicion has always hovered around Virginia's much younger boyfriend, there are a bevy of suspects. Laurie Moran decides to investigate Virginia's death for her successful cold-cases television show, "Under Suspicion". A New York Times bestseller.


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TED, FRY, Complexity, Systems and Strategy

First in a series on prediction.  I hope.

Today is a simple if abstract discussion.  The math of strategy.  Now the majority of my peers at ASP specifically avoid the quantitative, and most strategists I’ve encountered are  MBA’s, historians, or soldiers that are not that keen on math, and don’t have much use for it beyond the simple arithmetic of “our big number beats their little number.” (which isn’t even always true).

Hannah Fry TED Talk

TED, FRY, Complexity, Systems and Strategy

By now, many of us are familiar with TED Talks (Technology, Entertainment, Design).  Personally I was chagrined when I found out Ted.com was taken.  But at least it’s being put to good use.

The TED talks are about “Ideas worth Sharing.”  They started out very cool, and have gotten more commercialized over time, but more often than not, are fascinating; if typically very focused on technology (due to their silicon valley roots).  There are also independently organized TEDX talks that really embody the “diamond in the rough” meme that started TED.  It’s a great place to see well communicated ideas.

The other day on my lunch hour I happened upon a TEDx Talk from Britain that well, hit my sensibilities as a physicist, mathematician, and strategist squarely.

Dr Hannah Fry, according to her website, is a “Dr. of Fluid Dynamics, researcher of Complexity Theory and all round bad-ass.”  If you take a look at her PhD Thesis, it’s 200 pages of graduate level mathematics that pretty well qualify her self description (As do her blogs posts on Python scripting).

OK, enough background.  SO what?

Point is, Dr Fry did a really well developed TEDx Talk earlier this year that demonstrates in layman’s terms the power of modern mathematics.  Specifically they created a mathematical model given available information and science that accurately recreates what happened in the 2011 London Riots, and appears to predict the behaviour of riots.

OK, I’m biased.  I’m an astrophysicist that does quantitative analysis of business intelligence and project planning and execution for a living.  My pile of books to read at home includes math texts on catastrophe theory, game theory, and complexity theory.  But I confess that it was John Mauldin that first showed me the value of applying complexity theory to strategic thinking.

Here’s how Math works.  Your classical physics and math is great for directly predicting simple things.  This is the majority of everyday engineering and construction.  We can accurately mathematically predict how well engineered machines and processes will work before we build them (e.g. machines, electronics, factories).  We can use math to measure and control the consumption of measurable quantities, be is Gas in our cars, grams of protein for athletes, sales revenue, market share or money in our bank accounts.  But you are limited by what you can measure, and it has to be “simple” mathematically speaking.

2 Problems.
1 – There are many things you can’t measure.
2 – Some  problems require you to measure too many things.

Now in the 20th century, science got around some of those problems by using statistics (i.e. simple pattern recognition).  We can mathematically model and predict how huge systems work if their behavior is simple when treating them as a whole.  This works for things like galaxies, stars, gases, explosions, fluids, water, etc.  I don’t need to track every molecule of water in a pipe, just the sum of its parts and everything works out.

The problem is the middle ground.  A complex system is something that has too many variables to measure and solve simply; and not consistent enough to treat as a single simple whole (i.e. a business, a war, the economy).

Now in the 21st century (with the help of computers), complexity theory is starting to get good.  Researchers like Dr Fry are starting to create mathematical models that accurately reproduce and potentially predict the behavior of real life complex systems, using rationality and complex math.   This is possible by basing the model by adapting existing models that work in analogous scientific systems.

For example assume:

How viruses spread = How information spreads
Shopping travel habits = Rioting Travel habits
Predator Prey movement = Rioter / Police movement

Adapt those three models into a single predictive model, and they actually do model and predict how fast, how long, and where riots will spread; based on input conditions and changing variables.  The model is roughly as accurate as the input data, and does a good job of recreating riots that have happened.  But even here, the precision and accuracy of the model is based on how many measurements you can put in.  Historical data plus known science becomes a constraint on future prediction.  That’s mathematical modeling 101, at least it was when I was in college.

Notice business kids,  they use the known science of shopper behavior to accurately predict how rioters behave.  Personally I had forgotten there was a science to shopper behavior.  Point – there is tons of data and science out there, if you take the time to find it (there nothing new under the sun, odds are somebody else already knows the solution to your problem).

So at this point, ya’ll are saying, cool Ted.  So some math geeks can do some math that models a riot.  So what?

Ok kids.  Any organization; a family, an army, an NGO, government or business is a system of interrelated parts that exchange information and resources to accomplish a variety of activities to accomplish organizational goals while also doing activities it needs to do to survive.  E.G.  A Family may go on vacation – focusing on logistics, travel and entertainment, but still have to deal with tactical needs of food, shelter, sleep, and family politics plus the long term requirements like bills, insurance, and a home.

A business may be focused on selling it’s product, with the normal cycle of R&D, Marketing, supply chain, manufacturing it’s product – but also has to have HR, Legal, Accounting, Facilities, IT, Taxes, and possibly PR and Lobbying to support the simple goal of building and selling a product.

Point is – all the functions of the business form a system of relationships that exchange information and resources in a constant and definable way.  Time sheets feed accounting so they can do payroll, but need charge numbers on the time sheets to feed financial cost controls and bucket costs for filing taxes.  These are mathematically speaking, complex systems like what Dr. Fry works with.

Hopefully, the system thing is making sense.  System, ecosystem – simply a collection of processes that flow resources and information through the organization to accomplish what needs to happen.  Working in an Engineering firm, I see plenty of technical process flow diagrams for things like refineries and power plants – and the methods are the same as when we are doing business processes.  There is a reason why there is a whole “systems thinking” movement in management consulting.  It’s accurate to the real world, and works when done well.  I was amazed when I started studying business strategy, all these cyclical strategy frameworks were almost identical to a standard engineering control theory.

Funny to me at least, I bring up that point at an ASP meeting fully of strategy consultants that developed these business strategy frame works, and they are honestly ignorant of their parallel development of the existing engineering science that is many decades old.

Well, kids, there is a math to your organization’s system.  And an easier paradigm than complexity theory.  Google the term “topology”.  It’s a branch of mathematics developed to study shapes; but what topology really does is map the relationships of different groups with different functions.  Which means two relevant things.  1 – there is a math for quantitatively modeling the relationships; i.e. the flows of information, resources, and processes within your organization.  And that math is also the math of databases; so if you can find someone willing to learn the theory of a homeomorphism (one to one vs. one to many relationships),  you can have a model or framework for understanding exactly how to map the system of processes of your organization; and even use it to streamline the series of databases that IT already maintains to try and manage that existing system via IT based business intelligence (ERP).   This allows you to data mine your big data intelligently if you understand the topology, the relationships between how different sets of data interact.

Then to miss Fry’s point.  If you can find some graduate students in complexity theory, you can model the behavior of your organization’s processes  and accurately and precisely predict how they will react under different scenarios.  You can take what good managers do instinctively, and improve on it.

Now, let’s be honest.  The vast majority of us have not studied graduate level mathematics like complexity or topology.  But you don’t really need to do formal math to be effective.  Math is just the science of patterns and relationships.  It’s built on rules and numbers.  But the rules work without the numbers (accurately if not precisely).

If you can understand the difference between a one to one and a one to many relationship, and notice that a pattern of a one week delay in supply chain results in a two week delay and cost in manufacturing –  You can sketch out some simply process flow diagrams to model the systems of your organization, and see the patterns of what goes right, what goes wrong, and will have a legitimate engineered approach to troubleshooting and understanding what goes right and what goes wrong.  It works for plants filled with a billion dollars of machinery, it can work for your organization filled with people doing various interdependent functions working towards team production.

Learn the concepts, and it can paradigm shift your ability to understand and solve problems.  If you can define and recognize the consistent patterns of your organization, you can predict how changes will affect those patterns.

So what?

We covered, well, a lot in a small space.  I obviously have too much applied math to get of my chest.

Dr Fry can’t tell you when a riot will happen.  But she can tell you how a riot will happen. That allows for some very precise scenario planning.  Be ready for an event or change before it happens.  And honestly, scenario planning has been around for decades.  Even going through the act of inaccurate scenario planning prepares the participants for change – orients them to better understanding the patterns of an organization and how they react to change.

If you understand the patterns, you have a chance at anticipating, managing and changing them.

Here’s the math free example of applying the math of understanding patterns of behaviour and relationships.  Charles Duhigg wrote a very useful book called the Power of Habit.  He thinks in terms of habits and the behavioural triggers that cause them.  Which is simple math: Trigger = Habitual Behaviour; only gets more complex as you see how a system of habits as a process in a population.

So what?  Well, how’s this for problem solving.  Some years back, Mr. Duhigg spent some time in Iraq during the war.  In the city he was in, the Army had a problem that every evening people would gather in the town square, protest, and there were some riots.

Over a few several days, Army leadership observed the habits – people didn’t show up to riot.  The town square was also a market.  People arrived to shop, ate dinner, and then were already gathered in the evening.  Trouble simply ensued after dinner.

Solution? The Army Major tasked to solve the problem simply banned kebab stands from the town square.

So at the end of the day, people in the town square got hungry, went to find food, and left the square.  Ended violent protests and riots with zero force, no violence, no death.

Charles Duhigg rightly calls that the power of Habit.  Someone like Dr. Fry would likely call that an elegant solution by simply understanding the equation, and changing a variable to zero.  I simply call it good strategy.

Dry Fry may be able to predict the pattern of a riot.  In one instance, Charles Duhigg witness an Army officer able to identify the pattern and disrupt it, and prevented the riots from happening.  In other words, he successfully predicted the conditions needed for a riot.  They can do that because in there own way, they do the math to understand why things happen the way they do.

The lessons here are simple:

  • You can’t predict the future (unless you are very well informed and good at game theory, then you can a little – but we’ll leave that for next week.)
  • But if you can identify predictable patterns of behaviour for a system of relationships ( e.g. an organization), you can predict how that behaviour will happen; e.g. Dry Fry and her complexity models that show how riots happen.
  • The better the math (pattern recognition), the more precise the model.  But even simple models can yield accurate and useable predictive results for patterns of behavior.
  • You can use a system map or process diagram to identify the relationships and patterns of your organization.  That will give you a framework for predicting the patterns of your organization.
  • If you can predict how your organization will respond to change, you can prepare for and manage that change.  Whether a change in the market, or any deliberate strategic change to the organization driven by leadership.  If you know how the organization works as a system of processes, you can deliberately engineer the desired results.

And the big points

  • You know change is coming. You know the world is not standing still.  This is a tool that can help you be ready for change, and respond and change your organization and it’s system of processes in a faster and more appropriate way.  Simply put, an appreciation of math combined with some leg work, and you can adapt faster and better than your competition.
  • Yes kids, this is another approach to process improvement.
  • Even better – If you can do that internally with your organization, you can probably also map the system of processes for your value chain, supply chain, market, competition, etc.  And get the same sort of feel for predicting and appreciating changes external to your company. Allowing you to adapt your external view and relationships just like the internal above.
  • Even better, if you take the time to understand how things work in the world, you may be able to manipulate (influence) the process to get results more in your favor.  I.E. it may be possible to alter a riot in progress, or a market shift to change the outcome predicted by the model, and achieve a more desirable outcome.

You can’t predict when events will happen, but you can be ready with a good response for when they do.  Yeah, it’s basically the boy scout motto.  But there is legitimate math that can help you manage the problems that are too big to measure, and too unpredictable to treat simply.

By rigorous study of the math of the patterns, we can learn them, and that allows us to predict, adapt to, and potentially disrupt, prevent or improve those patterns.

If you understand the patterns of conflict, you have the potential to predict, adapt and manipulate it to a more desirable result.

And in my mind, that is what strategy is all about.

If you made it this far, thanks for reading my pedantic rant on math.

-Ted Galpin SPP

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Management Practices Essay

In: Business and Management

Submitted By jeniedy1
Words 802
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Management Practices

Why is it necessary to plan? How is most planning conducted?

Planning suggests a systematic attempt to shape the future. I think that planning entails making decisions and informing actions in ways that are socially rational. At the same time, serves a public or general purpose, such as ensuring the stability and growth of the economy. The planning process must continuously pursue and faithfully serve the public interest.
This is necessary because it guide overall economic stability and growth in a community by achieving a sensible and attractive land use pattern, preserving or improving that which all ready exists and also encourage economic development.
All manager plan. Most planning is carried out on an informal or casual basis. This occurs when planners do not record their thoughts but carry them around in their heads. Formal planning is written, documented and developed through an identifiable process. The appropriate degree of sophistication depends on the needs of the individual managers and the organizational itself. At the same time plans are often classified by function or use. The most frequently encountered types of functional plans are sales and marketing plans, production plans, financial plans, and personnel plans. Sales and marketing plans are for developing new products or services. So at the end of time we all need to plan our life or thought in certain ways to get were we want in your life.

2. Describe the differences between objectives, policies, procedures, and rules.

Objectives are statements outlining that a manager is trying to achieve; they give an organization and its members direction and purpose. One key for organizational success is for the objectives at all different levels to mesh together; long-range objectives and short-range objectives.
Long-range objectives generally go beyond the…...

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