text:
lime (living sweeter than sweeteners)

I wished I could
tell all the truth
and so I did and
my wish came true.

I wished I could
be seen and see
and so I saw
but I did not find me
until I saw
such a beauty around me!

Then I wished
I couldn’t be hurt
but it did hit me so hard
I could not breathe and my heart
got broken in the pain,
and that pain, that pain, it healed me
and so my desire.

So I never wished
I could be desired. I wasn’t

and I wished
I could grasp the whole
and I reached nothing, nothing at all!

Now I just know
I can belove.


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text:
Published January 17, 2020

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Structure of MMI Inc.

The Masaryk Memorial Institute is run by an elected Board of Directors headed by its President. The number of board members varies from 8 to 12 including the President. The duties performed by the Board of Directors are voluntary. All board members are elected for a 3-year period by the Institute’s members at Annual General Meetings, where the most important decisions for the upcoming period are also approved.

The Board of Directors meets once a month to discuss current issues concerning the Institute. In addition there are several committees headed by members of the Board to deal with different Institute activities. Specifically, these committees include the press committee, educational and cultural committee, social committee, and various temporary committees formed to address current issues of the Institute. All members of MMI are invited to volunteer and get involved with any committee.

Masaryk Memorial Institute is a Canadian non-profit organization based in Toronto, Ontario that has been serving people of Czech and Slovak origin living in Canada since 1945.

Tel: (416) 439-4354

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Details of my next Funzing Talks are given below:

The Psychology of Attraction

(Who we want and why we want them)

Why do I always meet the same type of guy/girl; end relationships the same way; feel afraid of commitment; feel in need of security; get great sex but lousy life partners; meet nice guys/girls but lousy lovers; fall for abusive partners; attract victims or needy people; always go for older guys/girls; want a younger partner; feel anxious when having sex; feel guilty when being sexual; find it difficult to express yourself sexually; can’t achieve sexual fulfilment; experience anxiety when having sex?

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Colin will explain how our early life influences effect our attractions to others and our subsequent sexual behaviours. Colin will also then show you how by adopting a new way of listening and communicating, you can go a long way to overcoming repeated behaviour patterns to achieve the relationship and sexual connection you really want.

Come along on your own, with a friend or partner and listen or take part in some of the exercises.

Next date TBC

Psychology of Fetish & Fantasy

(Who we want and what we want to do with them)

Does leather do it for you or maybe you are into latex? Are you considering a group encounter or maybe you like to dress up? Some like rope, some like silk, others may prefer vanilla but then some like it spicy. The type and variety of erotic fetishes and fantasies imagined by men and women are plenty. Some are quite simple, some are more complex and adventurous, some are just downright bizarre, but all will have a motivation at their core. On our own, we are free to explore, but if you have come across this in a relationship then unless you are both on board with the particular fantasy or fetish it can become an area of conflict and misunderstanding. In this talk, Colin will explain his theories on the origins of having a sexual fantasy or fetish. We are not born with them so something must influence us to develop them and there must be a reason why we believe we want to experience them. Whether you are single or in a relationship, have a fantasy or fetish yourself or not this fascinating talk will briefly explore the possible biological, psychological and anthropological motivations that could be at the root of our sexual and emotional imaginations and behaviours.

Fetish – Any object or non-genital part of the body that causes an erotic response
Fantasy – An imagined sequence fulfilling a psychological need
Caution – This talk includes references to sexual practices so open-mindedness is essential if attending this talk

Colin Goes On Tour With Funzing Talks

In February and March, my friends at Funzing have invited me to present my highly successful Psychology of Kink and Fetish Talk around the country. If you happen to be anywhere near the cities below on the dates I am there, it would be wonderful to see you there. Venue details can be read on the Funzing site. Start time 7pm to 9.30pm. Cost £12 Click here

  • 21st January – Nottingham
  • 22nd January – Leeds
  • 5th February – Brighton
  • 11th February – London
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Good talk, engaging speaker with understandably a good amount of knowledge. I found it to be an insightful evening with useful information to take away that I could start thinking about and apply to my life. Nice bit of science balanced with relatable humour and anecdotes which I thought was delivered very well.

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‘Great speaker, opened my eyes and gave me methods and tools I can use straight away to improve my confidence and relationships, will be using Colin’s services at some point !!! Well done Colin’

‘Loved it, Colin was very direct and funny. Really made everyone feel comfortable especially on the sexual front, it was great. I definitely want to come again. As I know sex can be sensitive, I’m very open-minded and open about sex and I gladly speak about it, it should never go unnoticed but I do understand that some people are quite private about the topic, but I think you portrayed it in a very tranquil and humorous way which I loved and it made everyone comfortable. COLIN YOU WERE AMAZING! Thanks so much for sending the recommendation of books!’

‘Fantastic talk. Colin was knowledgeable, entertaining and engaging. Had a few revelations over the evening that have helped me understand myself better and will stick with me for life. Thanks!’


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Main Content

Equation Solving Algorithms

Equation Solving Definition

Given a set of n nonlinear functions Fi(x), where n is the number of components in the vector x, the goal of equation solving is to find a vector x that makes all Fi(x) = 0.

fsolve attempts to solve a system of equations by minimizing the sum of squares of the components. If the sum of squares is zero, the system of equations is solved. fsolve has three algorithms:

  • Trust-region

  • Trust-region-dogleg

  • Levenberg-Marquardt

All algorithms are large scale; see Large-Scale vs. Medium-Scale Algorithms.

The fzero function solves a single one-dimensional equation.

The mldivide function solves a system of linear equations.

Trust-Region Algorithm

Many of the methods used in Optimization Toolbox™ solvers are based on trust regions, a simple yet powerful concept in optimization.

To understand the trust-region approach to optimization, consider the unconstrained minimization problem, minimize f(x), where the function takes vector arguments and returns scalars. Suppose that the current point is x in n-space and you want to improve by moving to a point with a lower function value. To do so, the algorithm approximates f with a simpler function q, which reasonably reflects the behavior of function f in a neighborhood N around the point x. This neighborhood is the trust region. The solver computes a trial step s by minimizing (or approximately minimizing) over N. The trust-region subproblem is

mins{q(s), sN}.

The solver updates the current point to x + s if f(x + s) < f(x); otherwise, the current point remains unchanged and the solver shrinks N (the trust region) and repeats the trial step computation.

The key questions in defining a specific trust-region approach to minimizing f(x) are how to choose and compute the approximation q (defined at the current point x), how to choose and modify the trust region N, and how accurately to solve the trust-region subproblem.

In the standard trust-region method ([48]), the quadratic approximation q is defined by the first two terms of the Taylor approximation to F at x. The neighborhood N is usually spherical or ellipsoidal in shape. Mathematically, the trust-region subproblem is typically stated

min{12sTHs+sTg  such that  DsΔ},(1)

where g is the gradient of f at the current point x, H is the Hessian matrix (the symmetric matrix of second derivatives), D is a diagonal scaling matrix, Δ is a positive scalar, and ∥ . ∥ is the 2-norm. To solve Equation 1, an algorithm (see [48]) can compute all eigenvalues of H and then apply a Newton process to the secular equation

Such an algorithm provides an accurate solution to Equation 1. However, this requires time proportional to several factorizations of H. Therefore, trust-region problems require a different approach. Several approximation and heuristic strategies, based on Equation 1, have been proposed in the literature ([42] and [50]). Optimization Toolbox solvers follow an approximation approach that restricts the trust-region subproblem to a two-dimensional subspace S ([39] and [42]). After the solver computes the subspace S, the work to solve Equation 1 is trivial because, in the subspace, the problem is only two-dimensional. The dominant work now shifts to the determination of the subspace.

The solver determines the two-dimensional subspace S with the aid of a preconditioned conjugate gradient method (described in the next section). The solver defines S as the linear space spanned by s1 and s2, where s1 is in the direction of the gradient g, and s2 is either an approximate Newton direction, that is, a solution to

or a direction of negative curvature,

The philosophy behind this choice of S is to force global convergence (via the steepest descent direction or negative curvature direction) and achieve fast local convergence (via the Newton step, when it exists).

The process of unconstrained minimization using the trust-region approach is now easy to specify:

  1. Formulate the two-dimensional trust-region subproblem.

  2. Solve Equation 1 to determine the trial step s.

  3. If f(x + s) < f(x), then x = x + s.

  4. Adjust Δ.

The solver repeats these four steps until convergence, adjusting he trust-region dimension Δ according to standard rules. In particular, the solver decreases the trust-region size if it does not accept the trial step, when f(x + s) ≥ f(x). See [46] and [49] for a discussion of this aspect.

Optimization Toolbox solvers treat important cases of f with specialized functions: nonlinear least-squares, quadratic functions, and linear least-squares. However, the underlying algorithmic ideas are the same as for the general case.

Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient Method

A popular way to solve large, symmetric, positive definite systems of linear equations Hp = –g is the method of Preconditioned Conjugate Gradients (PCG). This iterative approach requires the ability to calculate matrix-vector products of the form H·v where v is an arbitrary vector. The symmetric positive definite matrix M is a preconditioner for H. That is, M = C2, where C–1HC–1 is a well-conditioned matrix or a matrix with clustered eigenvalues.

In a minimization context, you can assume that the Hessian matrix H is symmetric. However, H is guaranteed to be positive definite only in the neighborhood of a strong minimizer. Algorithm PCG exits when it encounters a direction of negative (or zero) curvature, that is, dTHd ≤ 0. The PCG output direction p is either a direction of negative curvature or an approximate solution to the Newton system Hp = –g. In either case, p helps to define the two-dimensional subspace used in the trust-region approach discussed in Trust-Region Methods for Nonlinear Minimization.

Trust-Region-Dogleg Algorithm

Another approach is to solve a linear system of equations to find the search direction. Newton's method specifies to solve for the search direction dk such that

J(xk)dk = –F(xk)
xk + 1 = xk + dk,

where J(xk) is the n-by-n Jacobian

Newton's method can be problematic. J(xk) might be singular, in which case the Newton step dk is not even defined. Also, the exact Newton step dk can be expensive to compute. In addition, Newton's method might not converge if the starting point is far from the solution.

Using trust-region techniques (introduced in Trust-Region Methods for Nonlinear Minimization) handles the case when J(xk) is singular and improves robustness when the starting point is far from the solution. To use a trust-region strategy, you need a merit function to decide if xk + 1 is better or worse than xk. A possible choice is

But a minimum of f(d) is not necessarily a root of F(x).

The Newton step dk is a root of

M(xk + d) = F(xk) + J(xk)d,

so it is also a minimum of m(d), where

m(d) is a better choice of merit function than f(d), so the trust-region subproblem is

such that D·d∥ ≤ Δ. You can solve this subproblem efficiently using a dogleg strategy.

For an overview of trust-region methods, see Conn [4] and Nocedal [31].

Trust-Region-Dogleg Implementation

The key feature of the trust-region-dogleg algorithm is the use of the Powell dogleg procedure for computing the step d, which minimizes Equation 3. For a detailed description, see Powell [34].

The algorithm constructs the step d from a convex combination of a Cauchy step (a step along the steepest descent direction) and a Gauss-Newton step for f(x). The Cauchy step is calculated as

dC = –αJ(xk)TF(xk),

where α minimizes Equation 2.

The Gauss-Newton step is calculated by solving

J(xkdGN = –F(xk),

using the MATLAB® mldivide (matrix left division) operator.

The algorithm chooses the step d so that

d = dC + λ(dGNdC),

where λ is the largest value in the interval [0,1] such that d∥ ≤ Δ. If Jk is (nearly) singular, d is just the Cauchy direction.

The trust-region-dogleg algorithm is efficient because it requires only one linear solve per iteration (for the computation of the Gauss-Newton step). Additionally, the algorithm can be more robust than using the Gauss-Newton method with a line search.

Levenberg-Marquardt Method

The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm ([25], and [27]) uses a search direction that is a solution of the linear set of equations

or, optionally, of the equations

where the scalar λk controls both the magnitude and direction of dk. Set the fsolve option ScaleProblem to 'none' to use Equation 4, or set this option to 'jacobian' to use Equation 5.

When λk is zero, the direction dk is the Gauss-Newton method. As λk tends towards infinity, dk tends towards the steepest descent direction, with magnitude tending towards zero. The implication is that, for some sufficiently large λk, the term F(xk + dk) <  F(xk) holds true. Therefore, the algorithm can control the term λk to ensure descent despite second-order terms, which restrict the efficiency of the Gauss-Newton method. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, therefore, uses a search direction that is a cross between the Gauss-Newton direction and the steepest descent direction. For more details, see Levenberg-Marquardt Method in the least squares documentation.

fzero Algorithm

fzero attempts to find the root of a scalar function f of a scalar variable x.

fzero looks for an interval around an initial point such that f(x) changes sign. If you specify an initial interval instead of an initial point, fzero checks to make sure that f(x) has different signs at the endpoints of the interval. The initial interval must be finite; it cannot contain ±Inf.

fzero uses a combination of interval bisection, linear interpolation, and inverse quadratic interpolation in order to locate a root of f(x). See fzero for more information.

\ Algorithm

The \ algorithm is described in the MATLAB arithmetic operators section for mldivide.

See Also

Related Topics


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Magneti Marelli ETM testing and diagnosis help

Do you have a failing Electronic Throttle Module? What steps to take if you do, plus the latest ETM news. Volvo 1999-2002 models only please.
Post Reply
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Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:24 am
Year and Model: 2001 V70 2.4T
Location: Salem, Massachusetts, USA
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Magneti Marelli ETM testing and diagnosis help

Post by prwood »

My '01 V70 2.4T has an ETM with the following label:
Magneti Marelli ETM with Yellow Label
Magneti Marelli ETM with Yellow Label
IMG_1209.JPG (70.84 KiB) Viewed 3300 times
I am currently experiencing an issue with the following symptoms (please note, these are all from idling in the driveway; I have not yet tried driving the car):

1. After starting the engine, RPMs drop to between 500-750, there is rough, loud stumbling sound coming from the engine, and there is a rhythmic puffing sound from the exhaust (approx. five puffs per second).
2. If I increase RPMs to 3000, it will stay at that point, but has a dip down to ~2800 RPM once every second or so.
3. When I release the accelerator, RPMs drop down immediately, and as soon as they go under 1000, the stumbling returns. Sometimes it returns and continues until I shut the car off, other times the engine immediately stalls.
4. If I push the accelerator all the way down while idling, the RPMs increase over 3000, but after a few seconds they drop and the engine stalls.
5. Using an OBDII scanner, the throttle position is reported as 20% immediately at startup and while idling, and continues to report as 20% regardless of how the accelerator pedal is pushed, even though the engine does seem to respond to action on the accelerator pedal.
6. Also on the OBDII scanner, MAF sensor reading is 0.6-0.7. MAF sensor was replaced in January of this year and was just cleaned this week.
7. The car *has* had the Volvo Recall 155 ETM software update installed.

I am planning to remove the ETM from the car tonight in order to clean and inspect it. I have a few questions:

a. If I remove the ETM from the intake manifold, but leave it connected to the wiring harness, are there any functionality tests I can carry out?
b. Are there any tests I can run on the ETM using a basic multimeter? Other than the OBDII scanner, this is the only other diagnostic tool I have access to.
c. If I disconnect the ETM from the wiring harness, can I connect it to a 12v power source to do any further tests? If so, which ports do I use to power it?
d. I plan to clean the bore and throttle plate with air intake/throttle body cleaner and a nylon brush. If I were to also remove the sensor panels from the sides, and the inspection panel from the front of the ETM, and spray out the insides with mass airflow sensor cleaner or quick-dry electronic connector cleaner, would this be helpful or harmful?

Thanks for any advice you can provide.
Cars I've owned:
- 2015 to current: 2001 Volvo V70 2.4T; 2004 Honda Odyssey
- 2007 to 2015: 2002 Subaru Legacy L Wagon
- 2003 to 2016: 2001 Toyota Corolla LE
- 1999 to 2003: 1994 Toyota Camry LE
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 2:11 pm
Year and Model: 1999 S70 T5
Location: Hungary

Re: Magneti Marelli ETM testing and diagnosis help

Post by beilagbela »

I know I'm super late, but I just came across your post and figured might post some info if anyone else comes across this.
Your symptoms sound like either one of the position sensors, or the control circuit itself inside the ETM has went bad, assuming all the wires are good. 20% throttle position is a mechanical failsafe and indicates that the ETM is unresponsive, it will stay at 20% throttle if the electric motor inside has no power (ignition off) or it's broken. The idea is that even if your ETM breaks, you should be able to drive to the nearest service center.
I'd try getting a helper and asking him/her to step on the accelerator pedal with the ETM plugged in but off the car so you can see what's happening. Important, your ETM will only function for 10 seconds after you turn the key for position 2, so if it's unresponsive after the initial 10 seconds with the engine not running, that's perfectly normal.
After those 10 seconds however (you'll know because the high pitch whine has stopped and the throttle plate "snapped" back to a default position) you can move the throttle plate by hand and the OBD scanner should record the changes in throttle position.

a) Kinda, the Marelli ETM does a self-test sequence when ignition is applied (it'll move back and forth a bit), and it will respond to the accelerator pedal inputs, however, only for 10 seconds after you switch the ignition on, after which it's going to "default" to 20-22% throttle position, not responding to any more pedal inputs until you either start it up ( DON'T try to start the car without the ETM in place) or you cycle the ignition again. Makes it hard or rather, impossible to diagnose the ETM with the engine off with a scan tool. :D

b) With the multimeter, there's two tests that the repair manual suggests: one is checking for supply voltage, that's done by disconnecting the ETM plug, and measuring the voltage with the ignition on between pin 6 and ground on the connector coming from the car (if you look at it from the front, the little notch on the connector that secures it into place facing upward, it's the pin on the bottom right) Typical value is 11-14V
The other test is checking for ground, the ETM is not grounded via connection to the engine like other parts, it has a dedicated ground wire. With the ignition off, check the bottom middle pin (pin 5 ) of the wiring harness on the car's side and ground. You should see close to 0 ohms. I disconnected the front cables when I removed the fan shroud, and that made my ETM not receive power, so make sure you connect the connectors running along the front of the car if you took the fan shroud off!

c) I wouldn't recommend it. The ETM is part of the CAN network and it needs to receive a signal from the ECU in order to move, so most likely nothing would happen if you tried, but you may end up damaging the ETM, i'm not sure. The car should supply power to the ETM on startup and conduct a self test every time, it has a characteristic high pitch "whine" when it's operating, followed by a springy, metallic sound of the throttle valve returning to 20% after 10 seconds on ignition.

d) You can clean the bore and throttle plate, it has helped many people, though I doubt it is the cause of the fault in your case.
Taking the side panels off is something I'd advise against unless you're planning a full rebuild. (Un)fortunately, everything is glued with silicone so there's a low chance of weather getting in, so cleaning it won't be necessary under normal circumstances, because all the contacts are "encased" in silicone, but if you try to remove either side panel, the soldered contacts of the throttle position sensor will break off and you'll have to resolder them.
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Mayer Brown, a leading global law firm, advised New Gulf Resources, LLC, an Oklahoma-based oil & gas exploration and production company, on concurrent private high-yield notes offerings of $365 million 11.75% senior secured notes due 2019 and $135 million subordinated payment-in-kind (PIK) toggle notes due 2019 with warrants. New Gulf Resources used the proceeds of the high yield bonds to acquire more than 80,000 acres of oil & gas properties in Texas. Global Hunter Securities and The Seaport Group acted as the placement agents in the offering.

The Mayer Brown team of lawyers on both matters included: Corporate & Securities partners Kirk Tucker, Harry Beaudry (both Houston) and John Berkery (New York) and associates Cynthia Mabry, John Furlow, Kristen Ford (all Houston) and Mandee Lee (New York); Banking & Finance partner Paul Astolfi and associate Robert O'Leary (both Chicago); Tax Transactions & Consulting partner Ed Osterberg (Houston); Employment & Benefits associate Elizabeth Dyer (Chicago); Government & Global Trade partner David Bloom (Washington DC); and Litigation & Dispute Resolution counsel Roger Patrick (Washington DC).


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Director Liabilities extend to GST

The Parliament recently passed changes to the Corporations Act and Tax legislation in relation to combatting ‘illegal phoenixing activities’. While the aim of the changes is to stop company directors closing a company, walking away from its liabilities and starting a new company performing similar activities, the impact of the changes go much further.

From a tax perspective, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) can now:

  • Act to collect an estimate of a company’s anticipated GST liabilities (in the instance the activity statements have not been correctly lodged);
  • Make company directors personally liable for the GST liabilities (or estimated liabilities) of the company they act for.

The changes extend not only to GST, but also to luxury car tax and wine equalisation tax.

The changes imposed on company directors will apply through the Director Penalty Notice regime.  This regime can make directors personally liable for certain tax debts of the company if the company fails to pay certain tax debts (until now Superannuation Guarantee Charge (SGC) and PAYG Withholding liabilities).  If this occurs, the ATO can issue a Director Penalty Notice (DPN) requiring the director to take action.

To avoid personal liability, the director has 21 days from the date of the DPN to either:

  • Cause the company to pay the debt;
  • Put the company into voluntary administration;
  • Put the company into liquidation.

If however, the actual debt is not reported within 3 months of the due date of the activity statement, or if the SGC statement is not lodged on time, then the only way to remit the penalty is for the debt to be paid.

Failure to take action will allow the ATO to recover the amounts from the director.

There are very few defences open to directors if they fail to take action.

All directors should make themselves aware of the financial position of the company, and take action to ensure that all relevant tax related liabilities are reported and paid on time.

Prospective directors should also ensure that the company they are considering a directorship with has met its tax obligations because the DPN regime can apply to existing tax liabilities also.

Upon receiving Royal Assent, the new rules should apply from 1 April 2020.

If you have any questions about how these changes will affect you, please contact your usual Mazars advisor or alternatively our tax specialists:

Brisbane – Jamie Towers

Melbourne – Evan Beissel

Sydney – Gaibrielle Cleary

+61 7 3218 3900

+61 3 9252 0800

+61 2 9922 1166

Published: 10 February 2020

Please note that this publication is intended to provide a general summary and should not be relied upon as a substitute for personal advice.

All rights reserved. This publication in whole or in part may not be reproduced, distributed or used in any manner whatsoever without the express prior and written consent of the Mazars, except for the use of brief quotations in the press, in social media or in another communication tool, as long as Mazars and the source of the publication are duly mentioned. In all cases, Mazars’ intellectual property rights are protected and the Mazars Group shall not be liable for any use of this publication by third parties, either with or without Mazars’ prior authorisation. Also please note that this publication is intended to provide a general summary and should not be relied upon as a substitute for personal advice. Content is accurate as at the date published.


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There are many gift options that provide substantial support for the McMains Children's Developmental Center while creating tax and income advantages for you and your heirs:

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Prior Chart
Chart In Focus

Zweig Breadth Thrust Signal

Chart In Focus
October 09, 2015

Technicians have a lot of versions of a “breadth thrust” signal, and the basic idea is that the Advance-Decline numbers suddenly go from not so good to REALLY good in a short amount of time.  The late Martin Zweig was one of the first to examine this phenomenon, and he came up with specific criteria for what is now known by technicians as a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) signal.

Zweig quantified this idea by first calculating a ratio of the number of advances divided by the sum of advances plus declines.  In other words, A/(A+D).  Then he calculated a 10-day EMA of that ratio, which we would call an 18% Trend according to our preference for the originalist terminology.  To get a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal, that ratio needed to go from below 0.40 to above 0.615 in 10 trading days or less.  The idea is that when there is such a signal, it is a sign that a rapid surge of money is trying to push its way through the door to get into the market, and that is a sign of continuing liquidity to fuel an uptrend.

I have played around with those thresholds, because they do not tend to produce very many signals.  But as I loosened the criteria at either end, I did get more signals, but the quality of those signals went down.

One point to note about this signal is that there were not any of them from 1984 to 2004.  20 years is a really long time to go without any signals for an indicator like this.  It should be understood that Zweig did his work on this signal long before that drought period, when the market was arguably operating on different rules of physics, so it is not a fault of Dr. Zweig that his signal went for 20 years without doing anything.

I bring all of this up because we just got another instance of this signal this week, and so that makes it worth examining.  The 20-year signal drought ended back in May 2004, a signal that was not so great because there was a significant pullback afterward (see below).  But then in 2009 we a great signal since it was followed by many more months of strong upward movement.  Another signal came in October 2011, following an ugly decline after the Fed ended QE2.  Its effect was so-so, as the pop ended and the market fell back before starting a new uptrend in earnest.

In October 2013 (why is it October so often?), there was another signal as QE3 was fueling a big bull market, and it too was considered a good signal.

But 3 prior signals over the past 6 years is not a statistically significant batch of signals to examine.  So let’s take it all the way back to 1928 and see what it was that Dr. Zweig was looking at.  The short answer is: The results are not as good as one might hope, and it matters whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend.  Let’s look at the charts.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

During the 1929-32 bear market, there was one great signal, at least for a few months, arriving in November 1930.  But its bullish effect petered out after just a few months, and the bear market was back on.  Four more bad signals each marked the ends of failing pops for stock prices.  It was only in April 1933 that there was finally a good signal that led to follow-on buying.  Then in 1934 there were two signals, each of which were not followed by more upside movement.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

The late 1930s saw a continued mixture of good and bad signals.  Some were okay, some were spectacularly bad as signals of a possible new bull market.  It is worth noting that the major bottoms in 1940 and 1942 saw no signals.  Only when we got to late 1943 did a real signal trigger, and it was a pretty good one.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

From 1944 to 1952, there were only two signals.  The one on Feb. 3 was a really good one, leading to a lot more uptrend.  But the one on March 8, 1949 was a really bad one, marking the end of a half-hearted pop.  It would have been great to have had one of these signals coming out of the bottom which followed, but that is not how the numbers fell out.  And the rest of the 1950s saw no signals.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

1962 saw two signals.  One was right after the June 1962 bottom, and the second was in November 1962, after the selloff related to the Cuban Missile Crisis.  Both were pretty good signals.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

The early 1970s saw only 3 signals.  The one in 1971 was great, and just the sort of signal one would like to get.  But 1974 was screwy, with an Arab Oil Embargo and a presidential near-impeachment that led to a resignation.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

1982 saw a wonderful signal, coming in August 1982, at the start of arguably the best bull market of all time.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

That last signal of the pre-modern era was not so great.   August 1984 saw a pop after a long and gradual downtrend, and while it did lead to more upward movement for the SP500, that continuation took a long time to arrive. So we cannot score this one as a big positive.

After a 20 year drought in signals, we finally saw another one in May 2004.  The market coasted higher for a few days after that signal was generated, but then saw a significant decline afterward, so call it a so-so signal.

Zweig Breadth Thrust signals

So here is the official tally of all of the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals over 87 years of market breadth history:

Signal type     Quantity

Great!                   11

Meh…                     4

Horrible                12

I am one of the biggest believers in the world about the idea of stock market breadth being one of the best tools we have to indicate financial market liquidity.  But based on this evidence, I cannot offer much in the way of optimistic commentary about this current ZBT signal, especially since it has occurred at a point that appears to be the early stage of a new downtrend.  Robust rallies within downtrends are great opportunities to get ready for the next phase of the downtrend.  The problem is that they often disguise themselves that way, when in reality a new uptrend is beginning after a long bear market.  This current moment does not seem like the end of a long bear market just yet.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

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The Magic of 150 Months


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Detroit Delays Legal Cannabis Sales, More Flawed Decision-Making

Detroit Delays Legal Cannabis Sales, More Flawed Decision-Making

Michigan became one of the newest states to fully legalize cannabis, on December 1, 2019. In many respects, it epitomizes why cannabis legalization is failing (or at best, making very slow progress) in many U.S. states.

Michigan has learned very little from states (like California) that have failed miserably in creating the framework for a healthy legal cannabis industry that can phase out the cannabis black market.

One of the primary arguments for legalizing cannabis is to eliminate the sale of unlicensed, unregulated, uninspected black market cannabis. When a new jurisdiction legalizes cannabis, the politicians always claim that “eliminating the black market” is one of their top priorities.

Then they create a regulatory framework that cripples the legal industry.

Here Michigan’s state government and its local governments are guilty of making both an old mistake and a new mistake.
The old mistake was when the state government allowed local governments to “opt out” of legalization. This is a mistake made by almost all U.S. states.

In Michigan, roughly 80% of local governments have chosen to block legal sales – at least initially. In California, nearly 80% of local governments continue to block legal cannabis sales more than two years after full legalization commenced.

How do you eliminate the cannabis black market when 80% of cities/counties are blocking the sales of legal cannabis? You can’t. The black market still controls roughly 75% of sales in California.

Local governments can’t “ban cannabis”, because the cannabis black market is omnipresent. They can only block legal cannabis sales and force their residents to buy unregulated/uninspected cannabis products.

In short, there is no rational reason why local governments should be able to block legal cannabis sales (in cannabis legal states). U.S. cities have experienced only positive benefits from cannabis legalization. Michigan’s state government should not have allowed local governments to block legal cannabis operations.

Conversely, in Illinois, the most recent state to fully legalize cannabis (January 1, 2020), roughly 60% of local governments are already allowing legal cannabis sales.

The result? Illinois is selling more cannabis in a day than Michigan sells in a week – with comparable populations.

Detroit, Michigan’s largest population hub, just voted to further delay legal cannabis sales. This is to give Detroit’s city council enough time to make the new mistake that is undermining the U.S. legal cannabis industry.

What is this new mistake?

Like many U.S. governments, Detroit wants the (private sector) legal cannabis industry to pay for all the government sins of cannabis Prohibition.

This week, the Detroit City Council unanimously voted to extend a temporary ban on legal cannabis sales through March 31 in order to give the city time to create a social equity program for its new industry. In the meantime, local police are working to crack down on black market pot shops that have sprung up to meet customers’ demand for weed.

City Councilman James Tate introduced this new ordinance in order to ensure that the city’s weed industry would include a “pathway for Detroiters to be gainfully employed,” according to The Detroit News. “We have to use this legislation to identify ways to reduce the financial barriers of entry and eliminate the structural obstacles that many urban cities are seeking to resolve among communities of color,” Tate wrote in a social media post.

Detroit’s (legal) “weed industry” didn’t exist when Detroit and other U.S. jurisdictions were persecuting Americans with anti-cannabis laws that should have never been on the books.

Detroit’s cannabis industry didn’t exist when Detroit’s police were (in particular) persecuting members of minority groups with these flawed anti-cannabis laws.

So why must the city’s cannabis industry be treated as some form of legalized charity to advance a “social equity” agenda?

For example, U.S. Big Banks have been caught (again and again) discriminating against minority groups in order to badly gouge them on loans and other transactions.

Has Detroit passed legislation “to identify ways to reduce the financial barriers of entry and eliminate the structural obstacles that many urban cities are seeking to resolve among communities of color” so that more minorities are employed in banking?

Of course not. And these were/are crimes committed directly by the Big Banks against African Americans.

“It’s clear that Detroit’s medical marijuana industry is overwhelmingly owned and operated by individuals who don’t live in the city and take their dollars back to their communities,” Tate continued. “It’s critical that we take the necessary time now to ensure that Detroit’s impending recreational marijuana industry will properly reflect the demographic of the city it’s located in.”

Is Tate proposing that U.S. banks operating in Detroit “take their dollars back to the community”? Of course not.

Is Tate proposing that U.S. banks also “properly reflect the demographic of the city” with respect to their hiring practices? Of course not.

Unlike U.S. banks, legal cannabis companies are guilty of no crimes. But the legal cannabis industry is going to be obstructed and restricted by Detroit’s government with “social equity provisions” that will further undermine the industry.

The effect of this misguided policy-making is that even once Detroit legalizes cannabis sales, the legal industry will under-perform.

Because of over-regulation and over-taxation, even many well-funded cannabis companies are unable to generate enough operational efficiencies to compete with the cannabis black market.

How will all the mom-and-pop cannabis stores envisioned by Detroit (owned/operated by members of minority groups) compete with the cannabis black market?

For one thing, they will have to approach U.S. banks for capital – the same U.S. banks that consistently rip-off members of minority groups. It would be comical, if it weren’t such tragically flawed policy-making.

Should members of U.S. minority groups receive assistance in overcoming the legal/economic effects from the government’s persecution of Americans via cannabis Prohibition?

They should receive government assistance for these government crimes. And this government assistance should come out of general tax revenues.

All Americans are responsible for voting in the governments that persecuted some Americans with anti-cannabis laws. All Americans must pay for the compensation.

The U.S. legal cannabis industry is not some organized charity. Guilt-ridden U.S. politicians should not be expecting the industry to pay for their own crimes.

Published at Fri, 31 Jan 2020 19:23:20 +0000

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Legalization of Recreational Pot Gaining Momentum in the United States

It is clear: Americans want legal weed, whether it be for medical reasons, recreational use, or both. Currently, medical marijuana is legal in 29 states and the District of Columbia, with the remaining states quickly following suite. Legalization of recreational pot is spreading slower, but spreading it is nonetheless. Many states are holding referendums with adult-use marijuana on the ballot.

Six out of every 10 Americans, or 61 percent to be exact, now support the legalization of recreational weed. According to the Pew Research Center, this is double what it was back in 2000. It is also nearly five percent higher than it was just a year ago. The survey, conducted in October last year, shows voter support for weed increasing at an unignorably steady rate across the United States.

Current Weed-Friendly States

Marijuana is now legal recreationally in nine states and Washington D.C. Some are enjoying skyrocketing economic benefits, including more tax money for infrastructure and other government-funded programs. Employment is higher, tourism booming. Although there are challenges, such as meeting demand and competing with the black market, these states all allow recreational pot in some way:

Colorado was the first state to legalize recreational cannabis. Tourists flock to the state to enjoy the many pot-friendly activities on offer, such as tours, classes, events, and more. Colorado is doing well. Crime rates are down, employment is high, and people there are healthier and happier.

Washington State soon followed Colorado’s example. Although pot is legal across the state, including in Washington D.C., only state-licensed outlets can sell it. There are restrictions in place, which mimic its liquor laws, but if you comply with them, then you will be a happy stoner indeed.

Anyone 21-years and older can light up legally in Alaska. The state legalized recreational use in 2015 and its first weed shop opened the next year. Alaska is enjoying a roaring pot tourism trade. Over two million people visited the state lastyear and spent nearly $2 billion on weed-related products and activities.

Although recreational weed is legal in California, since New Year’s Day this year, you cannot find it everywhere. Some cities, particularly in the Central Valley area, such as Bakersfield and Fresno, put a ban on sales. Despite this, the state allows legal adults to buy, use and grow limited quantities of pot.

Maine is more liberal with its weed use regulations than other states are. Mainers can possess as much as 2.5 ounces of cannabis; more than double what others allow. However, you cannot get it anywhere in the state. Governor Paul LePage just recently vetoed a bill that would permit recreational sales.

Massachusetts residents can grow as many as 12 cannabis plants at home and carry an ounce of pot on them. Lawmakers postponed its legal market, however, from January this year to July. The state is still busy getting its recreational marijuana industry in order.

Since Nevada launched its recreational market in July 2017, it has $20 million more in its coffers. The state does not permit anyone to grow their own, however, unless they live 25 miles from a retail outlet. You can still buy pot and use it, while supplies last anyway. Stores quickly run out of stock to sell.

Oregon legalized recreational weed in 2015. Since then, it has paid $85 million in cannabis taxes to fund public health initiatives, schools, local government, and police departments. You can carry an ounce of weed there and grow up to four plants at home. You can even gift edibles, if privately ingested.

Vermont is the first state to legalize weed through its legislature, instead of through a ballot initiative. You can carry an ounce there and have two plants growing at home. However, the state’s lawsdo not establish a legal market for either the production or sale of marijuana.

Soon-To-Be Weed-Friendly States, Hopefully

Some other states are considering whether to legalize or not, while some are just waiting for their legal laws to come into effect. Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Virginia and Wisconsin are states experts think will legalize weed fully soon. Thirteen states already decriminalized marijuana, so you will not go to jail if police catch you with it, only pay a fine of between $100 and $500. These states are:

  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Illinois
  • Maryland
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Nebraska
  • New Hampshire
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Rhode Island

Despite the federal government stubbornly refusing to legalize marijuana in any capacity, it will not be able to stave off public pressure for too much longer. More and more states are legalizing weed, ultimately rendering federal law irrelevant. However, even though pot is legal already in some states, it is important to remember that they still have regulatory laws. Do not break them when visiting!

Author Bio

Dorothy Watson writes for Pot Valet, an innovative online weed delivery service in California. As such, she spends her time researching the benefits of marijuana and letting the world know about them. She also advocates for legalization to spread across the entire world.

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