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Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks

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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202023

Many of the models used to track, forecast, and inform the response to epidemics such as COVID-19 assume that everyone has an equal chance of encountering those who are infected with a disease. But this assumption does not reflect the fact that individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups. We argue that incorporating a network perspective, which accounts for patterns of real-world interactions, into epidemiological models provides useful insights into the spread of infectious diseases.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has ignited a resurgence of interest in models of epidemics. As the virus spread first across China, Italy, then other countries in Europe, the United States, and South America, predictions from such models demonstrated the urgent need for a response and helped to guide policies including social distancing and economic lockdowns. Similarly, as measures have taken effect and the spread of the virus has slowed, epidemiological models help guide the path back toward relaxing restrictions and reopening the economy while being aware of the risk of a second wave of infections.

There are a number of different families of models in use today, each with different advantages and disadvantages. This Commentary argues that adopting a network perspective that explicitly accounts for the structure of interactions among individuals can provide important insights regarding both the spread of a disease and the best ways to tackle it, in particular when compared to the class of SIR models, one of the most widely used modeling approaches in epidemiology.

Network models have successfully been employed in many fields to study phenomena for which interrelationships matter. In economics, these include job referrals in labor markets (Calvó-Armengol and Jackson, 2007), patterns of international trade (Chaney, 2014), the diffusion of technology (Banerjee et al., 2013), and contagion in financial markets (Elliott, Golub, and Jackson, 2014).1 In all of these areas, adopting network models has led to new perspectives and novel insights, and we argue that network models can do the same to advance our understanding of epidemics.

The Baseline SIR Model

There are many models that track the behavior of an epidemic as it infects a population. Most of these are categorical models in which individuals are categorized by disease status. A particularly prominent example of such a model is the SIR model introduced by Kermack and McKendrick (1927).2 In this model individuals are either susceptible (S), infected (I), or removed (R). Individuals start out in S and, depending on their interaction with already contagious individuals and the characteristics of the disease (such as how contagious it is), proceed to I and then R, which includes individuals who have either recovered (or are otherwise immune) or died. Other categorical models include the SIS (“susceptible-infected-susceptible”) model, in which recovered individuals can be reinfected and thus re-enter the pool of the susceptible, and the SEIR (“susceptible-exposed-infected-removed”) model, which incorporates a new health status for individuals that have been exposed to the virus and are contagious but are as yet asymptomatic. The key parameters describing the epidemic in the SIR model are the infection parameter, called reproduction number, which describes how quickly infected individuals infect others, and the recovery rate, which describes how quickly infected individuals recover and thereby stop being infectious.

Once the parameters are fixed, the flow of newly infected individuals in these models depends on both the number of already infected individuals and the number of susceptible individuals at a given point in time. In the standard SIR model, the flow from susceptible to infected is proportional to the total numbers of both the susceptible and the infected. This approach seeks to capture the idea that for a given transmissibility of a virus the likelihood of infection depends on how frequently already infected individuals interact with those who are still susceptible.

In the SIR model, a disease to which no individual has immunity (as is likely the case with COVID-19) starts with a small number of infected and a large pool of susceptible individuals. As the infection spreads among the population and the number of infected individuals increases, the rate of new infections increases rapidly while the rate of removal remains constant, causing the number of those infected to increase more rapidly.3 Without any interventions or changes in behavior, the number of new infections per day increases up to a peak and declines from then on. The decline arises from the fact that fewer and fewer susceptible individuals are found in the population, limiting opportunities for further transmission. As the number of susceptible individuals declines further and a larger share of the population is immune by having recovered, the spread of the disease will slow down and at some point begin to peter out. The large number of immune individuals then provides protection to the population, resulting in herd immunity.4

Figure 1 illustrates these infection dynamics for a simple setting with parameters based on the early COVID-19 experience.5 The top panel shows for any point in time the share of the population that is currently infected. The bottom panel shows for any point in time the share of the population that has ever been infected up that point; that is, it includes both those currently infected as well as those previously infected but now recovered.

Notes: The top panel shows for any point in time the share of the population that is currently infected. The bottom panel shows for any point in time the share of the population that has ever been infected up to that point, that is, it includes both those currently infected as well as those previously infected but now recovered.
Source: Authors’ simulations.

Vaccines work in an SIR setting by protecting vaccinated individuals themselves, and by also increasing the share of immune individuals, thereby slowing down the spread of disease. If sufficient numbers are vaccinated, the population will reach herd immunity without large portions of the population ever becoming infected.

The SIR model has long been a standard tool used in epidemiology to study the spread of infectious disease.6 Because both infection rates and mitigation efforts such as social distancing have a large impact on economic behavior, economists are now working with these models to better understand the interrelationships between public health measures and economic activity.7 However, like any model, it is not without shortcomings. The key limitation of the SIR model for the purposes of this Commentary is the assumption it makes regarding the frequency at which infected individuals meet with those who are susceptible, thereby generating opportunities for disease transmission. The SIR model assumes uniform mixing across the entire population, meaning that infections evolve as if any susceptible individual interacts with and could be infected by any infected individual across the population with equal probability. However, it is well documented that social interactions are not organized in this stylized way. Instead, individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups, shaped, for example, by family ties, work and social environments, and geography. Network models provide a route into analyzing epidemics in a way that takes these patterns of interaction into account.

A Network SIR Model of Epidemics

The key component of adopting the network approach to modeling an epidemic is the description of patterns of interaction using a network, consisting of nodes and links.8 Nodes represent individuals or households, and the links describe the interactions that potentially spread disease. The existence of a link could indicate, for example, that two individuals work in the same plant or attend the same school, and a disease could be transmitted between them in that environment. Importantly, in the absence of a link, for example, because two individuals live at opposite ends of the country, the disease does not pass directly from one to the other. Figures 2 and 3 illustrate two sample networks that will be useful in the discussion below. Nodes are represented by numbered blue circles and the lines between them are links.

The elements of the baseline SIR model can be accommodated within this network framework. Individual nodes are either “susceptible,” “infected,” or “removed,” and the transitions between these states work as before: A susceptible individual interacting with many infected contacts will be more likely to become infected than an individual with only few or no infected contacts in their network. Just as in the SIR model, the epidemic is then modeled by simulating the spread of the virus among individuals that interact. The difference is that the interactions are explicitly described by a network that permits more complex patterns of interaction than the baseline SIR model.

Within the framework of a network model, the baseline SIR model is a special case with two properties: First, each and every pair of individuals across the entire population is potentially linked (such a network is said to be complete). Second, each and every individual has the same number of links as all other individuals (such a network is homogeneous in its structure). Figure 2 illustrates these assumptions in a simple setting with eight nodes. Every pair of nodes is linked by a dashed line, indicating that in the SIR setting the disease can potentially be transferred between every pair of individuals in the population. This is an extreme case, and in most settings the assumptions of completeness and homogeneity are not satisfied. Figure 3 shows a different network using the same eight nodes but adding heterogeneity to the link patterns—not all nodes are directly connected by a link and there is variation in the number of links that each node has. We will argue that ignoring such variation hides some important aspects of disease spread that a more flexible network model can uncover.

The greater granularity of the network model does not come without costs. For example, the data required to map out a given interaction network fully may be prohibitively costly to acquire. In addition, network models can be harder to work with than simpler classes of models and often can only be solved using simulations. However, we argue that the useful insights such models can offer about the spread of disease may make it worthwhile to incur the costs.

Insights from a Network Perspective

Relaxing the assumption of uniform random mixing and explicitly modeling interaction patterns via a network can provide a number of important insights about the spread of a disease that are not present in the baseline model. We focus on the insights that come from two features of real-world networks that network models can capture: (1) heterogeneity in the number of connections, and (2) network clustering. Below we show that both of these affect the evolution of the epidemic in meaningful ways.

The first useful feature that can be captured by a network model is that it can accommodate differences in the number of interactions between individuals in a population. For example, some individuals may live in rural environments with relatively few contacts through their work or social life, while others live in dense urban centers, using crowded public transport, working in high-contact occupations, and interacting with many others outside of work.9 While the baseline SIR model does not allow for such differences in interaction frequency, a network model can readily accommodate it, most directly by having nodes with different numbers of links. For example, in the network in figure 3 Node 1 has only two links, while Node 4 has five. In the context of a spreading disease, it makes a substantial difference whether an infected individual is more like the former or more like the latter. In epidemiological research of certain diseases, it is not uncommon that highly connected individuals, so-called “super-spreaders,” turn out to be particularly important in the early stages of a disease, helping it spread rapidly based on their high degree of interaction with others.

Another, more subtle, effect of the variability in the number of contacts is that, given a fixed share of infected individuals who are uniformly distributed, individuals are more likely to become infected if their number of interactions is higher. This greater connectedness of those who get infected then implies that they are also more likely to pass on the disease themselves. This pattern of the network can contribute to accelerating the spread of the disease in the early stages. Conversely, in later stages of a disease once many highly connected individuals have recovered, infected individuals will tend to have fewer connections and thus fewer opportunities to pass on the disease.

Many structural models of network behavior in an epidemic are much more complicated about how the number of links are distributed than the simple example we illustrate here. For example, how widely connected are the “super-connected”? Do highly connected people tend to seek out and connect with more highly connected individuals? These and other questions have been examined, both with respect to measuring actual connections, and with respect to measuring the behavior of an epidemic during actual historical (and current) outbreaks.10

Figure 4 illustrates the impact of heterogeneity in the number of connections on the progression of an epidemic. The blue line shows the baseline SIR model. To make the SIR baseline model comparable to the network models, we convert the SIR model to a network. We create 100,000 nodes and endow each with exactly 50 connections, so that the network is homogeneous. Furthermore, we allocate these connections randomly across all other individuals in the population to reflect the completeness of the network of potential links in the SIR model. Finally, we adjust the infection parameter so that the infection dynamics with these 100,000 nodes and 50 links on average are exactly the same as in the SIR model without a network structure. With these adjustments, the blue line is exactly the same as the continuous blue line in figure 1. The solid orange line shows a variation in which we assume that there are two groups of individuals: one that interacts significantly less at 10 connections (hermit) and one that interacts significantly more at 90 connections (friendly). We calibrate the model so that the average number of connections across all individuals remains 50. All other model parameters are identical between the two lines.

Source: Authors’ simulations.

Compared to the benchmark case, in the hermit-friendly model the disease initially spreads significantly faster, through the highly connected individuals, but spread then slows down and the number of infected approaches zero earlier. Interestingly, in the hermit-friendly model, the long-run share of the population that ever gets infected is significantly lower than in the SIR model. This reflects the fact that as the infection progresses, fewer “friendly” individuals remain susceptible and are infected and the share of “hermit” individuals increases. With fewer connections to facilitate transmission, the disease spreads more slowly and herd immunity is reached earlier.11

The second feature that network models can capture is that social networks tend to exhibit a significant degree of overlapping relationships among groups of individuals who move in the same circles. Among coworkers in a given plant, for example, it is likely that a large share of the interactions of one worker in the workplace as well as in other social circles overlap significantly with those of another worker at the same plant. This feature is illustrated in figure 3 by the two easily distinguished clusters involving Nodes 1, 2, and 3, and Nodes 4 to 8, respectively. Within the clusters, nodes are tightly connected, but there is only one link across, from Node 3 to 4.

This phenomenon, termed “clustering” in the networks literature, has important implications for the spread of a disease. With a high degree of clustering, as the share of infected individuals in one part of the network increases, the likelihood of infecting another individual in that part decreases, as fewer and fewer contacts remain susceptible. This slows down the spread of the disease.

The effect of clustering in the aggregate is illustrated in figure 5. As before, the blue line shows the baseline SIR model replicated in a network of nodes with 50 connections each, randomly assigned across the population. The solid lines of different colors show simulations with different levels of clustering. These differences are achieved by maintaining 50 links per node but assigning these links no longer randomly as in the SIR baseline, but such that the fraction of shared neighbors on average hits a specified level from 0.1 to 0.7. For comparison, in the SIR baseline case with random assignment, the fraction of neighbors that are shared goes to zero as the network becomes large.

Source: Authors’ simulations.

The simulations show how in the aggregate greater clustering leads to a small slowdown in the spread of the disease compared to the benchmark case. Note that higher clustering is also associated with a slightly shorter duration of the disease compared to the benchmark, and a lower share of the population becoming infected at some point.12

Locally, the result of clustering is an acceleration of spread within the cluster. In the context of COVID-19, there were a number of notable local networks of individuals with significant clustering, such as on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where the disease spread aggressively until new infections petered out as fewer and fewer susceptible passengers or crew were around. Similar dynamics have been at work in the various outbreaks in prisons across the country. In contrast, in a classic SIR model there is no space for such local saturation and the disease is able to draw on the complete pool of susceptible individuals across the population.

Implications for Economic Activity and Policy

Beyond the insights on disease spread discussed above, adopting a network perspective provides insights on the implications for economic activity and opens up a way to understand some additional policy options available to combat an epidemic.

Network models of disease provide insights that can enrich the analysis of the economic implications of a pandemic. For example, as the simple hermit-friendly model above illustrates, significant heterogeneity in connections can accelerate the early spread of disease while reducing the share of the population that is affected in the long run. This result affects the relative benefits of lockdown policies in models that trade off economic disruption for a slowdown in the spread of the disease, such as in Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt (2020). In addition, the model suggests that allowing for heterogeneity in economic analyses of the disease’s impact can provide substantial benefits, as different groups might contribute differently to economic output as they do for disease outcomes. Recent work by Acemoglu et al. (2020) employs this approach to great effect.

Furthermore, the clustering of connections and the implications this network pattern has for the way the disease spreads suggest that the economic disruptions caused by the disease might exhibit similar behavior. For example, in a network model a local outbreak in an industrial town or plant can quickly spread in that area. Economic output in that area will then likewise quickly be severely disrupted in part because a large share of employees are sick or stay at home even though the statewide or national share of infections is limited. Such instances occurred within the meat processing industry throughout the spring and summer of 2020, causing substantial supply chain disruptions and price increases that affected families throughout the country.13

As pathways of disease transmission are explicitly described in a network model, a network model can accommodate the tracing of contacts (and isolation) of known infected individuals, a policy commonly used in combating epidemics and also advocated for in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, such aggressive use of information on contact networks has been part of the policy response to COVID-19 in South Korea that is widely regarded as having been more successful than that in many other countries.14 At a much cruder level, the quarantining of the Diamond Princess and other cruise ships represents a similar response that exploits the pattern of relationships among individuals—in this case, the absence of interactions outside the ship as long as it remained at sea.

In addition to tracing contacts of known infected individuals, network information can also be exploited for targeted testing. By focusing limited testing resources on highly connected individuals such as workers in healthcare or public transport, these resources can be put to the best use.

In a basic SIR model, every individual is potentially connected to everyone else and thus the set of “contacts” is always potentially the full population. Therefore, this modeling approach does not capture the potential for targeted, localized policies that have been key to responding to past epidemics. One implication of this limitation is that short of letting an epidemic play out until herd immunity is achieved, defeating a fast-spreading virus such as COVID-19 requires finding and distributing an effective vaccine or restricting interactions sufficiently until the virus is fully extinguished. Otherwise, within an SIR model, once restrictions are lifted, any remaining infected individuals are able to spread the disease again to any individual still susceptible, potentially necessitating a return to population-wide lockdowns. The network view allows policymakers to think about more nuanced policies, such as lifting general restrictions but following up with targeted responses to any new clusters of infections that might occur using targeted testing and contact tracing.

This Commentary has made the case that adopting a network perspective can offer useful insights when modeling the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. We have shown that the baseline SIR model commonly used implicitly makes assumptions about the pattern of interactions among individuals that are unlikely to hold true in the real world. More importantly, we have demonstrated how incorporating some commonly observed network patterns, such as heterogeneity in the number of contacts individuals have and the clustering of contacts, can change the behavior of the model in important ways, affecting the speed of the disease spread, long-run health outcomes, and the effects of the disease on economic activity. Furthermore, by accounting for the patterns of interaction among a population, a network model offers additional nuance for the analysis of the economic effects of COVID-19 and better informs the discussion of targeted policies such as contact tracing and testing that have been successfully used to help combat infectious diseases.

  1. For a broader background on the economics of networks see Jackson (2008). Return
  2. See Brauer, van den Driessche, and Wu. (2008) for a textbook treatment. Return
  3. For the disease to spread in this manner, the infection must be sufficiently contagious at this point. This is captured in the SIR model by the condition that the basic reproduction number, before any mitigation is taking place, is greater than 1; that is, on average each infected individual infects more than one other individual. If fewer new infections than removals take place right from the beginning, the disease never takes off. Return
  4. Formally, herd immunity is reached in the SIR model when the share of immune individuals is sufficiently large so that the reproduction number effectively falls below one. At this point effective recoveries occur faster than new infections (as so many individuals are already immune) and any limited outbreaks peter out. Return
  5. The chart shows the evolution of a simulated epidemic in the SIR framework. There is a wide range of parameters that are consistent with the early data on COVID-19. See, for example, the scenarios set out by the CDC at Our parameters follow the baseline setting in Atkeson (2020b). We assume infected individuals recover on average over 8 days. The disease is assumed to have a basic reproduction number of 2.5; that is, without any mitigation and before large numbers of individuals are immune, on average an infected individual spreads the disease to 2.5 additional people before recovering. Note these infectiousness parameters do not incorporate the widespread mitigation efforts that have changed the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19. Our simulation starts with 5 percent of the population being infected. For the formal description of the model see the online appendix to this Commentary. Return
  6. See Hethcote (2000) for a comprehensive review of the literature on mathematical models of infectious disease, including a major section on SIR models. Return
  7. Since early 2020 a large number of papers on the economics of pandemics and of COVID-19 have been published, including Atkeson (2020a), Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt (2020), Alvarez, Argente, and Lippi (2020), Piguillem and Shi (2020), Berger, Herkenhoff, and Mongey (2020) and Toda (2020). For a discussion of this literature and additional references, see Hur and Jenuwine (2020). Return
  8. Our discussion below is based on Kiss, Miller, and Simon (2017). For further reading, this book provides a comprehensive treatment of the use of networks in epidemiology. We focus in this Commentary in particular on aspects and models discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. Return
  9. The technical term for the number of links of a node is “degree.” Return
  10. See Keeling and Eames (2005), in particular, Section 3, for an overview of this and related research. Return
  11. For further treatments of heterogeneity in SIR models of epidemics, see Britton, Ball, and Trapman (2020) and for the economic perspective, see Ellison (2020) and Acemoglu et al. (2020). Return
  12. We present a simple example to highlight the potential effects of clustering in networks. For deeper treatments see, for example, Keeling and Rohani (2008), Rand (1999), and House and Keeling (2010).Return
  13. In June 2020, beef and veal prices increased by 25.1 percent compared to June 2019. Source: Return
  14. See the discussion of policy scenarios supporting the exit from quarantine and lockdowns in Humphrey et al. (2020). Return

  • Acemoglu, Daron, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning, and Michael D Whinston. 2020. “Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 27102.
  • Alvarez, Fernando E., David Argente, and Francesco Lippi. 2020. “A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 26981.
  • Atkeson, Andrew G. 2020a. “What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 26867.
  • Atkeson, Andrew G. 2020b. “On Using SIR Models to Model Disease Scenarios for COVID-19.” Quarterly Review, 41(1).
  • Banerjee, A., A. G. Chandrasekhar, E. Duflo, and M. O. Jackson. 2013. “The Diffusion of Microfinance.” Science, 341(6144).
  • Berger, David, Kyle Herkenhoff, and Simon Mongey. 2020. “An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine.” Preprint. Staff Report.
  • Brauer, Fred, Pauline van den Driessche, and J. Wu. 2008. Mathematical Epidemiology. Springer Science and Business Media.
  • Britton, Tom, Frank Ball, and Pieter Trapman. 2020. “The Disease-Induced Herd Immunity Level for COVID-19 Is Substantially Lower than the Classical Herd Immunity Level.” ArXiv:2005.03085 [Physics, q-Bio].
  • Calvó-Armengol, Antoni, and Matthew O. Jackson. 2007. “Networks in Labor Markets: Wage and Employment Dynamics and Inequality.” Journal of Economic Theory, 132(1): 27–46.
  • Chaney, Thomas. 2014. “The Network Structure of International Trade.” American Economic Review, 104(11): 3600–3634.
  • Eichenbaum, Martin S., Sergio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt. 2020. “The Macroeconomics of Epidemics.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 26882.
  • Elliott, Matthew, Benjamin Golub, and Matthew O. Jackson. 2014. “Financial Networks and Contagion.” American Economic Review, 104(10): 3115–3153.
  • Ellison, Glenn. 2020. “Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 27373.
  • Hethcote, Herbert W. 2000. “The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases.” SIAM Review, 42(4): 599–653.
  • House, Thomas, and Matt J. Keeling. 2010. “The Impact of Contact Tracing in Clustered Populations.” PLOS Computational Biology, 6(3): e1000721.
  • Humphrey, Lia, Edward W. Thommes, Roie Fields, Naseem Hakim, Ayman Chit, and Monica Gabriela Cojocaru. 2020. “Testing, Tracing, and Social Distancing: Assessing Options for the Control of Covid_19.” MedRxiv preprint.
  • Jackson, Matthew O. 2008. Social and Economic Networks. Princeton University Press.
  • Keeling, Matt J., and Ken T.D. Eames. 2005. “Networks and Epidemic Models.” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2(4): 295–307.
  • Keeling, Matt J., and Pejman Rohani. 2008. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton University Press.
  • Kermack, William Ogilvy, and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.” Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 115(772): 700–721.
  • Kiss, István Z., Joel C. Miller, and Péter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Springer International Publishing.
  • Piguillem, Facundo, and Liyan Shi. 2020. “The Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies.” Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Working Paper No. 20/04.
  • Rand, D.A. 1999. “Correlation Equations and Pair Approximations for Spatial Ecologie.” In Advanced Ecological Theory: Principles and Applications, edited by Jacqueline McGlade. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Toda, Alexis Akira. 2020. “Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact.” ArXiv:2003.11221 [Econ, q-Bio, q-Fin].

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Coronavirus in Michigan: Here’s what to know Nov. 25, 2020

4,273 new COVID cases reported Wednesday

Michigan COVID-19 data through Nov. 25, 2020
Michigan COVID-19 data through Nov. 25, 2020 (WDIV)

DETROIT – The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Michigan has risen to 324,779 as of Wednesday, including 8,761 deaths, state officials report.

Wednesday’s update represents 4,273 new cases and 73 additional deaths. On Tuesday, the state reported 320,506 total cases and 8,688 deaths.

READ: 97 takeaways from epidemiologist’s deep-dive into Michigan COVID-19 spread, deaths, future outlook

New COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to rise in Michigan. Testing has increased in recent weeks, with more than 45,000 diagnostic tests reported per day, but the positive rate has increased to near 13% over the last week. Hospitalizations have increased steadily for the last five weeks, including upticks in critical care and ventilator use.

Michigan’s 7-day moving average for daily cases was 6,925 on Tuesday, near the highest it has ever been. The 7-day death average was 80, the highest since May. The state’s fatality rate is 2.7%. The state also reports “active cases,” which were listed at 159,000 on Tuesday, its highest mark on record. More than 152,000 have recovered in Michigan.

Coronavirus headlines:

VIEW: Tracking Michigan COVID-19 testing data

VIEW: Tracking coronavirus cases, outbreaks in Michigan schools

Whitmer urges Michiganders to follow COVID rules ahead of Thanksgiving

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer released a video Tuesday asking residents to follow COVID-19 safety rules over Thanksgiving weekend.

Whitmer is asking Michiganders to wear masks, practice social distancing, wash hands frequently and avoid large gatherings over the holiday.

“Thanksgiving is about taking time to appreciate the things around us as well as give to others,” Whitmer said. “This year in particular, I am thankful for our frontline workers in our hospitals, child care centers, grocery stores, and everyone else who put their lives on the line to protect our families from COVID-19. As the weather gets colder and as cases continue to skyrocket, we must do everything we can to protect these heroes on the front lines. We all have a role to play to keep our family, friends, neighbors, and frontline workers safe. I know this year will be different, but to protect our families, frontline workers, and small businesses, we must make short-term sacrifices for our long-term health.”

Read more here.

What does emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine mean?

Pfizer formally asked U.S. regulators Friday to allow emergency use of its COVID-19 vaccine. Emergency use of a vaccine is when regulators allow shots to be given to certain people while studies of safety and effectiveness are ongoing.

Before any vaccine is permitted in the U.S., it must be reviewed by the Food and Drug Administration, which requires study in thousands of people. Normally, the process to approve a new vaccine can take about a decade. But the federal government is using various methods to dramatically speed up the process for COVID-19 vaccines.

Can Michigan get COVID-19 curve down enough for new restrictions to end after 3 weeks?

Michigan Gov. Whitmer was asked Thursday if the state can get its COVID-19 curve down enough over the next three weeks to avoid extending the new temporary restrictions on restaurants, schools and other parts of the economy.

“If we see meaningful movement in the right direction, that is possible,” Whitmer said. “That shows that we are capable of getting our arms around this.”

On Thursday Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, the chief medical executive for the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, said the state’s hospitals are “closer and closer to becoming overwhelmed” and are currently, on average, about 79% full.

Michigan’s ‘3-week pause’ COVID restrictions in effect

Michigan is entering a three-week “pause” to several activities in an effort to help stop a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Under new restrictions issued Sunday evening by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS), here’s what will be closed starting Wednesday, Nov. 18 until Dec. 8 in Michigan.

Note: The map in the article shows the entire state of Michigan under what MDHHS calls risk “Level E” -- read that here.

What’s closed starting Wednesday, Nov. 18:

  • High schools (in-person learning)
  • Theaters, movie theaters, stadiums, arenas,
  • Colleges and universities (in-person learning)
  • Bowling centers, ice skating rinks, indoor water parks
  • Work, when it can be done from home
  • Bingo halls, casinos, arcades
  • Dine-in restaurants and bars (indoor dining)
  • Group fitness classes
  • Personal services (salon, spa) that involve mask removal*
  • Organized sports, except professional sports and certain NCAA sports (Big Ten football, for example)

*For more information, view the MDHHS' official Gatherings and Face Mask emergency order, which goes into effect at 12:01 a.m. Nov. 18, right here.

What remains open during this three-week period:

  • Indoor gatherings are still allowed but only between two households and with no more than 10 people.
  • Small outdoor gatherings (25 people)
  • Retail
  • Preschool through 8th grade (local district choice)
  • Childcare
  • Manufacturing, construction, other that is impossible to do remotely
  • Public transit
  • Hair salons, barber shops, other personal services (Per the MDHHS order -- Section 4.e.: In facilities offering non-essential personal care services, including hair, nail, tanning, massage, traditional spa, tattoo, body art, and piercing services, and similar personal care services, gatherings are only permitted to the extent that services do not involve the removal of face masks. All services must be provided by appointment, and gatherings in waiting areas are prohibited.)
  • Gyms and pools (for individual exercise only)
  • Restaurants and bars (for outdoor dining, takeout, and delivery only)
  • Professional sports (without spectators)
  • Parks and outdoor recreation
  • Funerals (25 people)
  • Health care

Interactive map shows COVID risk by event size in each Michigan county

One of the biggest challenges with containing COVID-19 is trying to limit gatherings -- and a new interactive tool shows just how risky it could be.

Researchers at Georgia Tech released a the “COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool,” a peer-reviewed resource that tells you the risk of being around someone with COVID-19, by the event size, in each U.S. county, in real-time.

According to the data, as of Nov. 13, at an event with 10 people, the risk of a person present with COVID-19 is 19% in Wayne County, 30% in Macomb County and 24% in Oakland County.

If that event is with 25 people, the risk increases to 41% in Wayne County, 59% in Macomb County and 37% in Oakland County.

At an event with 100 people, risk levels in pretty much every Michigan county surpasses 80%, including some at 99%, like Kent and Calhoun counties.

‘The health care system can capsize’: Michigan hospitals rapidly filling with COVID-19 patients

Michigan hospitals are rapidly filling with COVID-19 patients once again, and experts are warning residents that if this trend continues, it will be disastrous for the state’s health care system.

Brian Peters, the CEO of the Michigan Heath and Hospital Association, spoke about the state’s latest rise in COVID-19 cases during a virtual panel discussion Thursday. The MHA represents all the hospitals and health systems throughout Michigan.

“I can tell you, very clearly, that we are squarely in the midst of a public health crisis,” Peters said.

The MHA is seeing warning signs from all hospitals -- from the small, rural hospitals to the largest urban systems -- in every corner of that state, he said.

“Our hospitals are rapidly filling with COVID-19 patients at a very alarming rate,” Peters said. “If this continues in the coming weeks, we will surpass our all-time record high in terms of COVID-19 inpatient hospitalization numbers here in the state of Michigan.”

Read more here.

Michigan rolls out coronavirus exposure app statewide: How it works, how to download

Michigan is expanding its COVID-19 exposure app for residents to use statewide after a successful pilot program in October.

The anonymous, no cost and voluntary app, piloted in Ingham County and on the campus of Michigan State University last month, lets users know whether they may have recently been exposed to COVID-19. Users can confidentially submit a positive test result into the app and alert others in recent proximity that they may have also been exposed to the virus.

Read about it here.

Coronavirus research headlines:

Michigan COVID-19 daily reported cases since Nov. 1:

  • Nov. 1 -- 3,354 new cases
  • Nov. 2 -- 3,355 new cases
  • Nov. 3 -- 3,106 new cases
  • Nov. 4 -- 4,101 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 5 -- 5,710 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 6 -- 3,763 new cases
  • Nov. 7 -- 6,225 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 8 -- 4,505 new cases
  • Nov. 9 -- 4,505 new cases
  • Nov. 10 -- 6,473 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 11 -- 6,008 new cases
  • Nov. 12 -- 6,940 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 13 -- 8,516 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 14 -- 7,072 new cases
  • Nov. 15 -- 6,381 new cases
  • Nov. 16 -- 6,382 new cases
  • Nov. 17 -- 7,458 new cases
  • Nov. 18 -- 5,772 new cases
  • Nov. 19 -- 7,592 new cases
  • Nov. 20 -- 9,779 new cases (new single-day record)
  • Nov. 21 -- 7,528 new cases
  • Nov. 22 -- 5,755 new cases
  • Nov. 23 -- 5,756 new cases
  • Nov. 24 -- 6,290 new cases
  • Nov. 25 -- 4,273 new cases

Michigan COVID-19 daily reported deaths since Nov. 1:

  • Nov. 1 -- 8 new deaths
  • Nov. 2 -- 9 new deaths
  • Nov. 3 -- 43 new deaths (17 from vital records)
  • Nov. 4 -- 19 new deaths
  • Nov. 5 -- 51 new deaths (26 from vital records)
  • Nov. 6 -- 43 new deaths
  • Nov. 7 -- 65 new deaths
  • Nov. 8 -- 31 new deaths
  • Nov. 9 -- 31 new deaths
  • Nov. 10 -- 84 new deaths (25 from vital records)
  • Nov. 11 -- 42 new deaths
  • Nov. 12 -- 45 new deaths
  • Nov. 13 -- 118 new deaths (83 from vital records)
  • Nov. 14 -- 65 new deaths (36 from vital records)
  • Nov. 15 -- 27 new deaths
  • Nov. 16 -- 28 new deaths
  • Nov. 17 -- 79 new deaths (24 from vital records)
  • Nov. 18 -- 62 new deaths
  • Nov. 19 -- 134 new deaths (61 from vital records)
  • Nov. 20 -- 53 new deaths
  • Nov. 21 -- 101 new deaths
  • Nov. 22 -- 32 new deaths
  • Nov. 23 -- 33 new deaths
  • Nov. 24 -- 145 new deaths (51 from vital records)
  • Nov. 25 -- 73 new deaths

Coronavirus resources:

🌟 Become an Insider 🌟

Introducing WDIV Insider: A new way for loyal Local 4 fans to gain access and customize your ClickOnDetroit news experience. This new and free membership is our way of saying thank you — and your way of getting in on the news action. WDIV Insiders will gain exclusive access to the Local 4 team and station, including personalized messages, offers and deals to big events, and an elevated voice in our news coverage. Learn more about WDIV Insider - and sign up here!

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Web Developer JavaScript React Full Stack

Job Title: Web Developer JavaScript React Full Stack
Contract Type: Permanent
Location: London, England
Salary: £70000 - £85000 per annum + benefits
REF: BB/14882/A/KS/060220_1581004638
Contact Name: Front End Web Team
Contact Email:
Job Published: 12 months ago

Job Description

Web Developer / Consultant (JavaScript TypeScript React Node Full Stack). Do you like to use a range of technology, take ownership and work directly with clients? Join this leading UK technology consultancy and progress your career in a quality driven environment working with a varied portfolio of global clients.

As a Web Developer / Consultant you'll spend the majority of your time working on-site with clients, mainly within the finance sector, where you'll be tackling a range of projects and will be able to have a large influence on technology choice allowing you to deliver world-class solutions.

Working directly with clients on projects lasting between 3 - 12 months, you will take on a consultancy approach: gathering requirements, discussing and suggesting ideas and technology choices and managing as well as influencing the clients. The company design and build software that transforms the performance of some of the world's largest organisations and only take on challenging and truly interesting projects that will allow you to utilise and develop your web development skills with JavaScript as well as learning other languages and technologies dependant on the project and across the full technology stack, you'll be working with modern architectures including microservices; front end frameworks, cloud based systems, data streaming platforms and serverless architectures.

*Strong web development background with indepth JavaScript skills
*Strong knowledge of JavaScript libraries / frameworks (e.g. React, Angular, Node)
*Knowledge of other software development languages e.g. PHP, Python, C# .Net. Java
*Aptitude, ability and desire to pick up new technologies
*Familiar with Cloud based technologies (Azure, AWS, Google Cloud Platform GCP)
*Strong analysis and problem solving skills
*Excellent communication skills, collaborative and pragmatic with the ability to explain complex technical issues

As a Web Developer / Consultant you will earn a competitive salary (to £85k) plus benefits.

Apply now or call to find out more about this Web Developer / Consultant (JavaScript TypeScript React Node Full Stack) opportunity.


text:
COVID-19 is an emerging, rapidly evolving situation.
Get the latest public health information from CDC:

Get the latest research information from NIH:

Key Record Dates Identifier: NCT00005617
Brief Title: Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage IV or Relapsed Malignant Melanoma

First Submitted : May 2, 2000
First Submitted that Met QC Criteria : January 26, 2003
First Posted : January 27, 2003 (Estimate)

Last Update Submitted that Met QC Criteria : July 30, 2020
Last Update Posted : August 3, 2020


text:
CANCELLED: 2020 Palo Alto/Menlo Masters Spring Short Course Meet

Palo Alto Masters

Saturday, March 14, 2020

USMS Sanction : 380-S009

Palo Alto Masters

Swim Meet Registration

Registration Schedule

It is now Pacific Time (PST) on .
This competition is closed by the host.  MEET CANCELLED. REFUNDS PENDING.
Open Close
Swimmer Registration Thu, Feb 6, 2020
11:00 AM
Sun, Mar 8, 2020
11:59 PM

We regretfully need to cancel the swim meet scheduled for March 14.  The City of Palo Alto is following the social distancing guidelines set forth to inhibit the spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19). Large gatherings where 6 feet between individuals cannot be ensured are cancelled. Refunds to participants will be processed within 5 days.
We look forward to hosting the meet in 2021 and wish good health and well being to all.

Palo Alto/Menlo Masters Spring Meet

2020 Spring Short Course Meet presented by Palo Alto and Menlo Masters
Saturday March 14, 2020

Start Time: Warm-up 7:30-8:45am, Meet Start 9:00am
Check-In:  Required for all events
Deck Entries:  None

Sanctioned by the Pacific Masters for USMS, Inc. Sanction #380-S009

LOCATION: Rinconada Pool, 777 Embarcadero Road, Palo Alto, CA 94303.

DIRECTIONS: HWY 101 exit Embarcadero west to Newell. Park on Embarcadero Road or turn right on Newell and park by tennis courts or in neighborhoods.  From 280 exit Page Mill east. Page Mill becomes Oregon Expwy east if El Camino Real. Turn north (left) on Middlefield, east (right) on Embarcadero to Newell.

PARKING INSTRUCTIONS: Parking is available along the backside of the pool by The Magic Forest and tennis courts and on the neighborhood streets.

FACILITY: 14 lane x 25 yard pool (8 competition, 5 warm-up/down, 1 buffer). The primary timing system will be semi-automatic timing with 2 buttons and times can be submitted for USMS top 10.  Times cannot be submitted for USMS records. Pacific Masters requirements for records and Top 10 consideration are the same as those for USMS.  Note: Timing system is push button only with no pads. The length of the competition course without a bulkhead is in compliance and on file with USMS in accordance with articles 105.1.7 and 106.2.1.

TIME: Saturday, March 14, 2020:  Warm-up 7:30-8:45am, Meet Start 9:00am (Event #3 not before 11:00am)

RULES & ELIGIBILITY: Current USMS rules will govern the meet. All participants must be age 18 or older as of the last day of the meet and be currently registered members of U.S. Masters Swimming.  Foreign swimmers must provide proof of current membership in their country’s Masters Swimming governing body.

ENTRY LIMITS: Swimmers are limited to five events (not including 1650 Fly). The 1000 Free is limited to 5 total heats.

ONLINE ENTRIES (No Refunds) - Due by 11:59 pm, Thursday, March 12, 2020.
Enter at https://www.clubassistant.com/club/meet_information.cfm?c=1469&smid-12931. The “billing information” email must be brought to the meet as proof of entry. Online entry requires payment by credit card using our secure site.  The cost to enter the meet is a surcharge of $20.00 per swimmer and $5.00 per individual event entered. Please note that the online processing fee of $1.50 plus 5% is included in these fees. Your credit card will be charged by “Club Assistant.com Event Billing” for this meet.

CHECK-IN: Swimmers in combined/male-female event #1-2/1000 Free must check in before 8:30am. Check in begins at 7:30am. Check-in for all other events opens at 7:30am and will close 60 minutes before the estimated start of the first heat of the event, but no earlier than 10:30am.  Swimmers who do not check in will not be allowed to swim.

SEEDING: Deck seeded fast to slow.  1000 Free heats will be run as combined male/female.

AWARDS: Ribbons 1st through 4th in each age group.

HOSPITALITY: Snack Bar available.

MEET DIRECTORS: Steve Hurko (steve@paloaltoswim.com) and Tim Sheeper (tim@menloswim.com)

REFEREE: Mike Abegg

EVENTS: Odd numbered events are Women; even are Men.

Events 1 and 2 1000 yd Free (male/female combined heats)
      Note: Event #3 will not start before 11:00am
Events 3 and 4            200 yd Breast
Events 5 and 6            50 yd Free
Events 7 and 8            100 yd Fly
Events 9 and 10          50 yd Back
Events 11 and 12        200 yd Free
Events 13 and 14        100 yd Breast
Events 15 and 16        50 yd Fly
Events 17 and 18        200 yd IM
Events 19 and 20        100 yd Back
Events 21 and 22        50 yd Breast
Events 23 and 24        400 yd IM
Events 25 and 26        100 yd Free
Special Event              1650 yd Fly***

** 1650 yd Fly: Special Event. Entry is free. Email entry to
steve@paloaltoswim.com or deck enter. There will be only one heat of 14 lanes, filled in order of registration. Bring your own counter and timer. Watches will be provided. Event must be completed within 45 minutes.

Session 1 - 1000 Free
Warm-ups start at 7:30 AM
Meet Session starts at 9:00 AM
# Sex Event
1 Mixed Men/Women combined heats 1000 Y Free
Session 2 - Events 3-26
Warm-ups start at 10:30 AM
Meet Session starts at 11:00 AM
# Sex Event
3 Women 200 Y Breast
4 Men 200 Y Breast
5 Women 50 Y Free
6 Men 50 Y Free
7 Women 100 Y Fly
8 Men 100 Y Fly
9 Women 50 Y Back
10 Men 50 Y Back
11 Women 200 Y Free
12 Men 200 Y Free
13 Women 100 Y Breast
14 Men 100 Y Breast
15 Women 50 Y Fly
16 Men 50 Y Fly
17 Women 200 Y IM
18 Men 200 Y IM
19 Women 100 Y Back
20 Men 100 Y Back
21 Women 50 Y Breast
22 Men 50 Y Breast
23 Women 400 Y IM
24 Men 400 Y IM
25 Women 100 Y Free
26 Men 100 Y Free

Note: If paying by credit card, your credit card statement will reflect a charge from "ClubAssistant.com Events."

Online Registration closed on 3/8/2020.
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  1. ROLL UP ROLL UP Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls of all ages, show date confirmed for SUNDAY THE 4TH OF AUGUST Tatton park VW show or vwnw is upon us again with this years show being a steampunk theme, as per usual I have secured us a 10 car plot and I have booked the weather especially. Volkswagen Northwest is the premier VW Show in the North of England, held within the beautiful surrounds of Tatton Park, close by the magnificent mansion and gardens and is organised by the Volkswagen Northwest Club on Sunday 4th August 2019. http://www.vwnw.co.uk
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2x Teeth Whitening Kit

 107.30  91.20

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  • Guarantee at least 2 shades whiter teeth
  • No pain or sensitivity
  • Only takes 10 min for each treatment
  • Removes stains and whiten your teeth
  • Gel for 6 applications
  • Peroxide-free and free of harmful chemicals

Resultat Resultat 1Resultat 2Resultat 3

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Our Teeth Whitening Kit is the most effective, simple and gentle product to use in the market. Each treatment only takes 10 minutes. After the first 6 treatments, you can get up to 8 shades of whiter teeth, with a good conscience, safe and secure at home. It varies from person to person how many treatments are needed to get the desired result. Our teeth whitening kit removes your discoloration from coffee, tea, red wine, sodas, cigarettes, and other colorful diets, without destroying the enamel.

Gentle and safe:

Our teeth whitening gel is peroxide-free. It does not contain hydrogen peroxide, but sodium bicarbonate and natural ingredients such as pomegranate extract, chamomile extract, and Aloe Vera. The product complies with FDA regulations and is CE certified, which means that you as a customer are guaranteed the best quality. Our product has not been tested on animals and is vegan.

Our teeth whitening kit whitens your teeth on the surface and does not penetrate the enamel. We guarantee at least 2 shades of whiter teeth.
Read about our 100% result guarantee or your money back here: result gaurantee

We recommend at least 6 consecutive treatments the first time you try Cmiile. 1 a day for 6 days. Take a before and after picture of your teeth and see how many shades whiter teeth you have got, using the shade guide included in the package. Depending on the results, treatment can be continued, but with a maximum of 12 treatments per month.

Maintain your white teeth by using your cmiile once every 14 days.

  • Sodium Bicarbonate
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  • Propylene glycol
  • Polyvinylpyrrolidone
  • Menthol

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text:
13. Wyoming (tie)

The Cowboy State is luring businesses with its strong workforce and solid education, but access to capital is still a big issue.

Top States Wyoming
Source: George Kavallines
2016 Rank
2015 Rank
Workforce 268 6 34
Cost of Doing Business 209 21 20
Infrastructure 208 12 4
Economy 212 14 23
Quality of Life 221 11 17 (Tie)
Technology & Innovation 56 48 49
Education 144 3 8
Business Friendliness 83 21 19 (Tie)
Cost of Living 33 29 18
Access to Capital 1 50 50
Overall 1435 13 18

Economic Profile

Governor: Matt Mead, Republican

Population: 586,107

GDP growth: 0.4 percent

Unemployment rate (May 2016): 5.6 percent

Top corporate tax rate: None

Top individual income tax rate: None

Gasoline tax: 42.40 cents/gallon

Bond rating/outlook: No general obligation debt

Major private employers: Rio Tinto Energy America, Cloud Peak Energy

Economic profile sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federation of Tax Administrators, American Petroleum Institute, Moody's Investor Service, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Latest Special Reports

  • Shoppers walk inside the Westfield Santa Anita mall during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Arcadia, California, June 25, 2020.

    Coverage of the world's largest retail trade organization's annual conference.

  • Innovative female entrepreneur examining prototype

    In an era of rapid technological advances and demographic change, how do legacy companies adapt, innovate and evolve? CNBC Evolve features iconic global companies and executives who are embracing change and transforming for the future.

  • The personal and economic pain from the COVID-19 pandemic is being felt all over the world. As a result of this unprecedented disruption, businesses owners and employees are dealing with an immeasurable level of suffering and facing scenarios they never could have imagined. Through expert analysis and advice from proven business leaders, The Path Forward explores the extraordinary challenges businesses are facing and offers ideas to help owners navigate this global crisis and thrive once again.


text:
To file a claim for reimbursement from the defendant for losses resulting from a crime, complete an affidavit online using the link below, print and submit with supporting documentation to the County Attorney's Office or probation office for filing with the court and defense attorney.

To file for financial assistance from the State of Minnesota for treatment costs of physical or emotional harm resulting from a crime, complete Reparations claim form using online link below and send to address noted in St. Paul, MN.


text: College Point has two magnificent waterfront parks – MacNeil Park, and Powell’s Cove Park – which are located on the East River and are havens of both active recreation and peaceful enjoyment. They are less than a mile apart on the town’s northeast coast. We focus much of our efforts at these parks, while also working to restore other blighted coastal areas, such as "Big Rock Beach" on the town's southwest coast along Flushing Bay. Through environmental workshops, shoreline cleanups, seagrass and oyster plantings, research, and strong parks advocacy, Coastal Preservation Network is creating more vibrant waterfronts and parks, fighting for the improvements we deserve, reconnecting the public to their coastal environment, and strengthening community service and pride.


text:
BLOG: COVID-19 Vaccine Hopes and Hurdles

Cobra Biologics has been fortunate to be given the opportunity to work with two novel vaccine candidates against COVID-19, utilising the company’s knowledge and experience in the production of plasmid DNA and viral vaccines. This blog aims to give a short introduction into the different types of vaccines that are in use, including the platform approaches relating to these two candidates and to highlight some of the potential manufacturing and administration challenges relating to the production of a vaccine to address a worldwide pandemic of the scale we are facing.

We are currently in the middle of the most severe pandemic for a hundred years; in less than 4 months COVID-19 has spread across the entire globe, infecting millions of people killing tens of thousands and bringing the global economy and national and international travel to a standstill. Whilst drastic measures such as social distancing and isolation may break, or reduce the chain of infection within specific communities, they will not prevent the potential for re-emergence of the virus in the future.

Vaccination is Key

The only accepted long term solution to prevent further outbreaks is through immunisation against COVID-19 involving mass vaccination on a global basis. This requires the development of a safe and effective vaccine that can be manufactured and administered across all the countries of the world. Whilst vaccines have been developed against seasonal, endemic, emerging diseases, and pandemic flu, we have not faced the scale that the current COVID-19 outbreak presents. The breadth of challenges not only in terms of the timelines, but also the scale of production required and the number of people to be vaccinated makes this a unique task and there are now over 40 vaccine candidates in development, with at least two in clinical trials.

The first point to make with regards to vaccine development is that, whilst they have been produced for many years and have saved millions of lives, giving protection for a wide range of diseases both bacterial and viral, the development of a successful vaccine is not a given. There are still many diseases, such as HIV, where despite massive efforts we still don’t have a vaccine. The second is that vaccines are unique in that they are given to healthy patients on mass to prevent future illness, rather than to treat specific patients with an existing condition hence heightening the stringent demands on safety.  Thirdly, as they often need to be administered to large population groups, many with constrained healthcare budgets, vaccines must be produced at large scale and at low cost. Finally, to ensure high levels of take up of the vaccines, supply chain and routes of administration must be kept as simple as possible.

Drilling Down the Options

Vaccines are not a singular type of product and come in multiple forms; early vaccines for diseases such as polio were based on the developed whole virus or bacteria which were weakened strains of the pathogen. These can be very effective, giving long term immunity but carry the risk of vaccine related infection. An alternative approach is to produce vaccines from inactivated forms of the pathogenic organism itself. This approach is much safer than using a live vaccine, and is used for several vaccines including the flu, but does not always give long term immunity and therefore requires re-vaccination.  Both approaches present a number of technical hurdles in terms of developing safe and effective vectors, including the handling of potential hazardous vectors at scale in production facilities. This approach can be further developed with the purification of the inactivated antigens to increase product safety.

More recently we have been able to characterise viruses at both a genetic and a chemical level; achieved in a matter of weeks for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. These insights have allowed for the development of vaccines based on immunogenic elements of the pathogen, producing recombinant proteins vaccines based on elements of the virus’ protein capsids, this has enabled synthetic sub-unit, conjugate and Virus Like Particle (VLP) vaccines, which offer safer vaccines and the potential for producing multiple component containing antigen epitopes (sometimes greater than 10, such as the Hepatitis B vaccine).  However, these types of vaccines are time consuming to produce and have complex manufacturing processes both for the active vaccine product and formulation, especially multi-component vaccines, with de-novo manufacturing processes required for each vaccine and potentially each component of the vaccine product.

An alternative approach to this is to seek development and manufacturing processes that are “platform” in nature, both in terms of development and manufacturing which can build on existing approaches and knowledge. One method for platform processes is that of gene therapy where the therapies are delivered as genetic material and the patients’ cells produce the desired product rather than then being introduced as pre-made materials. This concept has led to the development of nucleic acid-based vaccines, which were first developed over 20 years ago. Initial products were largely based around the plasmid DNA and adenoviral vectors and more recently RNA based vectors.

Nucleic Acid-Based Vaccines

The initial DNA vaccine candidates were developed largely against diseases such as HIV and TB. Disappointingly, the initial promise could not be translated into successful clinical outcomes. However, work has continued into the development of potential vaccine candidates including studies on the development of vaccines against certain coronavirus diseases, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) where some level of success has been seen.

Adenoviral vectors have been developed for a number of years, whilst initial studies were with human adenoviral vectors, many current studies including those performed by the Jenner Institute are with chimeric chimpanzee-based vectors, as these avoid the issues of immune responses from patient previously exposed to human adenoviruses. These vectors have been developed against a wide range of diseases including Ebola, Zika, MERS and SARS and a number of clinical studies have been performed on over 1,000 patients including infants and children to demonstrate their safety and efficacy. The potential for the use of generic delivery vectors has allowed groups like the Jenner Institute to optimise the vector design with regards to best possible expression of genes to maximise immune responses, vector infectivity and productivity. It also speeds up pre-clinical development in that selected vaccines candidates can be constructed in a matter of weeks as all that is required is the construction of gene sequences which is very rapid and cheap.

Rapid Response

From a manufacturing perspective, as the manufactured vectors are essentially delivery vehicles of the gene of interest, they can be produced through standardised production platforms.  As with the development of the vaccine candidates themselves, manufacturing platforms can be developed and optimised independently and ahead of the selection of a vaccine candidate. From a clinical safety perspective these vectors have already been used in large animal and human clinical studies, and there is significant clinical experience and knowledge of these vectors, giving confidence with regards to safety and the potential to generate protective immune responses. Overall this allows for a rapid response to emerging diseases, not only with respect to the development of vaccine candidates but also in the establishment of large-scale production of vectors once vaccine candidates have been shown to be effective; a critical factor with regards to COVID-19.

Unprecedented Need

The rapid need for a COVID-19 vaccine is unprecedented, only comparable to pandemic flu vaccines, where it is possible to produce vaccines utalising existing egg-based production platforms. For pandemic flu, however, the rate of infection and severity of the disease was significantly less, with no where near the societal or financial impact. The manufacturing, distribution and administration of vaccines at a global scale presents enormous challenges. For example, the plans developed for a pandemic flu estimated a need for 4.9 billion doses to be manufactured per year. The requirements for COVID-19 vaccines are likely to exceed this number.   Therefore, looking at potential vaccine candidates and the ability to produce billions of doses with the subsequent rapid distribution and administration will be essential. Success will depend on several factors including the potency of the vaccine in terms of quantity of antigen required and the ability to achieve protection with the productivity and the scalability of the production platforms being used.

Additionally, to be able to produce billions of doses of vaccine it will be necessary for manufacturing to be performed simultaneously across multiple sites and locations. To achieve this, manufacturing processes need to be transferable, robust and will preferably not require highly specialised facilities or be restrained by complex supply chains and raw material needs.  Whilst these vaccines are still in development it is possible, from previous studies for similar coronavirus vaccines such as SARS and MERS, to make estimates based on dose levels and current productivity levels for comparable products, to predict the potential manufacturing scales required.

A Question of Capacity

For DNA Vaccines, dose levels vary, but doses as low as 0.67mg have been reported. Such a dose would relate to approximately 670g of DNA per million patients, which equates to 300,000 doses (or 300 doses/ L). To dose the population of Sweden would require 6.7Kg (or 33,500L fermentation broth) and for the UK for 32.5kg (or 162,500L fermentation broth). To put this into context the largest reported batch scale for plasmid production is in the region of 200g from a 1000L fermenter. Therefore, without significant investment in manufacturing capacities, DNA vaccines may be restricted to use with smaller groups such as healthcare workers.  When we look at the production of adenoviral vectors, it likely that doses will be in the region of 1-2x1010 vp/ml, this equates to approximately 0.2-0.4ml of cell culture based on current productivities. It should therefore be possible to produce between 4- and 8,000,000 doses from a 2,000L scale bioreactor. This would equate to 2.5 batches (at a 2000L scale) to vaccinate the whole of the population of Sweden and about 16 batches for the UK. Adenoviral vector production also has the advantage that it can be produced more readily at scale in single use systems which will allow for duplicate facilities to be established.

Lifelong Protection?

One final aspect when looking at the viability of vaccine candidates is patient compliance. This is a critical area for vaccines in order to achieve herd immunity whereby the spread of a disease can be contained if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals in a population are immune to the disease and therefore can act as buffers between unvaccinated individuals and an infected person.  So ideally, the supply and the administration of the vaccine needs to be simple, especially for areas with less developed healthcare systems. For a DNA based vaccine, whilst it is possible to treat via direct injection, an increasing amount of studies have used electroporation (effectively using a small electric charge on the skin to promote uptake of the DNA into cells). These systems seem to work well, but the question does arise of how you would administer these vaccines to large populations if electroporation devices were required at all the clinical sites. The adenoviral vaccines pose a different problem in that whilst they can be directly injected into patients, they are genetically modified organisms (GMO). Whilst we have seen a big increase in the numbers of GMOs being administered as vaccines and gene therapies, these have all been performed in specialist clinical  centres and not the ubiquitous doctors’ surgeries or pharmacies where you normally have vaccinations. Therefore, this issue will also need to be addresses especially in countries which have highly conservative approaches to genetic modification of organisms.

Whilst in an ideal world, it would be possible to give lifelong protection through a single vaccination against COVID-19, this may not be possible and in reality it is likely that long term manufacturing capability will need to be established across the globe to ensure that protection against COVID-19 is maintained.

In summary, both the plasmid DNA and adenoviral vaccine approaches offer real potential for the development of a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19. Given the magnitude of the challenge that COVID-19 represents in scale and time, there is not going to be an ideal solution, and multiple vaccines will need to be adopted to start bringing the spread of this disease under control and allow societies, the economy, and travel to return back to the ‘normal’.

Tony HitchcockAuthor: Tony Hitchcock, Technical Director


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The first Oil Heating Brewhouse System was invented in 2017, for which we have got the certificate of patent ( Certificate No. ZL 2018 2 1498858.5). Compared with traditional steam and electric heating, it has the advantages:

1. Energy saving:   electricity consumed много less than steam heating as the oil is in cycle use, normally charged once a year.

2. Higher heating efficiency

Oil temperature setting: 150~ 170:

От 28 в 60, время нагрева: 30мин;

От 60 в 80, время нагрева: 20мин;

От 80 в 100, время нагрева: 30мин;

3. Uniform heating with higher boiling intensity and better coagulative performance, effectively avoid partially over cooking caused by direct fire or electric heating;

4. Skid- mounted,convenient installation,saving more space;

5. Cost saving. No need of boiler or burner;

6. Simultaneous heating of both tuns.

7. The oil is safe and environmental as it is used in heat radiator.

8. In order to match the small brewing system, we also developed a special fermenter with independent chilling system.

The first Oil Heating Brewhouse in 2017, 1BBL unit, which we have been using to make beer in order to test and optimize the machine.

The second generation of Oil Heating Brewhouse System in 2018. Piping is simpler by optimization.

The third generation in 2019, taking smaller space and looking nicer.

In 2020, we integrate the system by adding an HLT, also oil heated.

In 2021, the processing pipeline is revised and some valves are added, which greatly increases the working efficiency of the whole system.


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Chabasse Cognac

Chabasse Cognac

In the depths of Saint-Jean d’Angely lies the historic 17th century cognac estate of Chabasse. This family run business today lies in the capable hands of Réné-Luc Chabasse, the ancestor of the founder of the family estate, Jean-Baptiste Chabasse. Chabasse Cognac is enjoyed around the globe, and today the house enjoys making the most of both the traditional and the contemporary – something that is portrayed in the striking shapes and designs of the bottles the cognacs are presented in.

Visit Chabasse: 51, RUE ÉLYSÉE LOUSTALOT ,17412 Saint-Jean d’Angely ,+33 (0)546321148 ,No visiting information available.

Visit the website of Chabasse Cognac

History of Cognac Chabasse

1787 saw the birth of the founder of Cognac Chabasse. Jean-Baptiste dedicated his life to the planting of vines and creation of eaux-de-vie and soon became known for the quality of cognacs his house produced. But not only did he concentrate on the here and now, but his vision was for the family members who would take over long after he was dead. Because of this vision, he ensured that his vines were planted in the best positions and he did his utmost to ensure that he left a legacy for his children and grandchildren to carry on.

In the early 1900s, the house was taken over by Louis Olivier Chabasse. He combined his love of cognac with his love of travel, introducing the cognacs of the house of Chabasse to all continents of the globe. It was on his overseas journeys that he met Elizabeth Bowen, who managed a farm in the area of Madras in India. For her, Louis Olivier created a special cognac brand, which still bears her name today: Cognac Bowen.

Chabasse Cognac Today

Today, Chabasse Cognac is headed by Réné-Luc Chabasse. The cognacs of Chabasse are enjoyed throughout the world, and Réné-Luc has indulged his love of the arts to create bold bottles and packaging. He has chosen a Saintonge image – the Romanesque arch – as a feature of Chabasse cognac bottles.

News, Products and Prices

Cognac Chabasse has a large range and also produces a Pineau de Charentes.

Prices range from €29 for a bottle of the Chabasse VS de Luxe through to €6000 for a bottle of the Chabasse Baccarat – a very old cognac beautifully presented in a wooden case.

It is also possible to purchase miniature bottles containing just 0.05 of a litre of their VS, VSOP, Napoleon, XO and XO Imperial.

Visit Cognac Chabasse

There is no information available about visiting Cognac Chabasse.

See some blog posts related to Chabasse Cognac

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The ‘nose’ of a Cognac is an integral part of what makes the enjoyment of the drink. But unless you’re an expert, it can be a challenge to know what you’re actually meant to be experiencing....
5 Alternative Cognacs to Hennessy Pure White: When HPW Runs Out
Sep 19, 2017

The Big Four

5 Alternative Cognacs to Hennessy Pure White: When HPW Runs Out
Hennessy Pure White Cognac has become incredibly popular. So much so that message boards that have even the most tenuous link to Cognac are littered with folks trying to get their hands on a...
List of 10 Artisanal XO Cognacs for the Holidays
Dec 18, 2013

Food, Drinks & Cocktails

List of 10 Artisanal XO Cognacs for the Holidays
As you know we love lists, just because it clears one’s mind and just because we love to arrange things. It’s like cleaning your flat: afterwards everything is in the right place. So we’ve done...

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Life inspires me to be creative. I love to photograph, and to shoot short films and videos. I also write essays and feature articles, and run creative and professional development courses.

My belief is that by working collaboratively we can tell stories that bring the people together and make the world a better place to live. If you have something to say, I’d like to listen to you and explore how we can utilise my skills to allow you to express yourself or articulate your message. We all have something to share or show.

Please get in touch. Let’s talk.

Photography and Film

Over the last three decades, my professional career and personal journey have allowed me to travel and work in five continents of the world.

I live in the great port city of Liverpool, working on commercial, editorial and creative commissions as well as on my own projects for exhibitions and publications at home and internationally.

I am a founding member of two collectives, Document Scotland and SixBySix, based on Merseyside. I worked on assignments for the Independent newspaper for over twenty years and still shoot stories and features for a number of publications, including the Guardian, the Times and Financial Times newspapers, as well as being an editorial photographer for Getty Images.

Over the last fifteen years, I have been one of the team of photographers at When Saturday Comes magazine, which has allowed me to build up an extensive archive of unique images of football culture.

In recent years, I have begun to shoot film content for clients, including as part of the media team for the 2018 Commonwealth Games Queen’s Baton Relay, which gave me the opportunity to work in over 30 countries across all five continents of the world.

Please follow me on social media for up-to-date news about my projects, assignments, exhibitions and more. You’ll find me on Twitter and Instagram as @germanocean

My images are available as prints or for licensing on request. Please visit my dedicated Archive website to view much of my work as a photographer over the last 30 years.

Exhibitions and Publications

I staged my first solo exhibition of photographs in 1995. Since then, I have been involved in over 40 individual and group shows.

Exhibiting and publishing my work is very important to me as it allows me to reach new and diverse audiences. Much of the work which is in the public domain is from self-initiated and long term projects, a method of working which I find very satisfying.

Being a member of Document Scotland has given me the opportunity over the last seven years to collaborate and develop a number of significant projects. As a collective we have had major exhibitions in the Scottish National Portrait Gallery in Edinburgh, Impressions Gallery, Bradford, Street Level Photoworks in Glasgow, the Martin Parr Foundation in Bristol, as well as numerous other venues in Scotland and further afield. Document Scotland has also produced a number of publications in the form of newspapers and project catalogues.

In late 2019, I staged my first exhibition in partnership with SixBySix entitled Berlin: After the Wall, which was shown in Liverpool. This was accompanied by publication of an edition of the work by Cafe Royal Books. In addition to collaborations, I have held solo shows and been the recipient of commissions from bodies such as the Mersey Basin Campaign, a project which allowed me to photograph the famous river over the course of a year, leading to a major book publication and landmark exhibition.

You can view a selection of the work outlined above in the Creative Camera section of my Archive website.

The Written Word

My writing has developed over the years from occasional contributions to now having articles and stories published frequently in various publications.

The inspiration for much of my published material comes from my lifelong interest in the world of football, the culture associated with it and the way it connects people across the world.

My earliest contributions were to fanzines and supporters magazines in the 1980s. From there on I wrote opinion and factual pieces before being given the opportunity to write long-form articles for Nutmeg, Scotland’s football periodical. Over the last three years, I have contributed articles on football history, profiles of people in the game and short stories, including a five-part series which narrated the adventures of an amateur club based in central Scotland which became the centre of a story of love, intrigue, money and murder.

In Spring 2020, The Blizzard published my article entitled My Friend, the Neo-Nazi, a true story about an encounter and friendship with a surprising twist. The crime author Ian Rankin commented at the time that the particular edition of the magazine was “worth purchasing, not least for Colin McPherson’s eye-popping essay about his German football-loving mate who became a Neo-Nazi”.

A selection of my published articles can be purchased and downloaded by visiting the Nutmeg website.

Creative Courses

Each year, I host and run a series of creative, residential courses on the unique island of Easdale on Scotland’s stunning west coast.

I believe in giving something back. It’s the ethos which underpins the photography courses I host and run on this tiny and beautiful corner in the heart of Argyll. Along with my co-tutor, professional photographer Adam Lee, we have developed two courses which allow participants to re-set and express their creativity set against some of the most dramatic landscapes you can experience. Easdale, once the centre of Scotland’s slate-mining industry, has a rich history and a vibrant  community living today on this small car-free island. Our short, residential courses cater for people who want to get away from it all with their camera and still learn. Come and be inspired and looked after from the minute you arrive until departure.

Over the last couple of years we have added other courses in screendance and campaigning writing to our programme, which I co-host with top industry professionals. This has allowed me to collaborate with outstanding teachers and artists who also want to utilise what Easdale offers to enhance their creative practice.

Come and lose yourself amongst the slate and seascapes and be inspired with our guidance to create something magical for yourself.

Full details can be found on our dedicated Easdale website.

Online shop

I have a range of publications and prints of my photographic work for sale. I welcome enquiries about all my work.


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Collibra and Dell Technologies to Co-Present at the 2017 MIT Chief Data Officer and Information Quality Symposium

NEW YORK, July 06, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Collibra, a leader in data governance software solutions for business users, today announced that Dr. Pieter De Leenheer, Collibra co-founder and vice president, research and education, will be a featured speaker at the 11thannual 2017 MIT Chief Data Officer and Information Quality Symposium (MITCDOIQ).

We live in the age of abundant data. Through technology, more data is available, and the processing of that data easier and cheaper than ever before. But to realize the true value of this wealth of data, data leaders must rethink assumptions, processes, and approaches to managing, governing, and stewarding that data.

Joining Dr. De Leenheer during his session will be Barbara Latulippe, chief data governance officer, Dell Technologies. Dr. De Leenheer and Ms. Latulippe will outline how to capitalize and exploit data assets, including a discussion about what data leaders must do to make their data easy to find, easy to understand, and easy to trust.

Who:  Pieter De Leenheer, Co-founder & Vice President, Research  Education, Collibra
 Barbara Latulippe, Chief Data Governance Officer, Dell Technologies
What:  Presentation: “Governance and Stewardship in the Big Data Era”
Where:  2017 MIT Chief Data Officer and Information Quality Symposium
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
 Cambridge, MA
When:  Thursday, July 13, 2017
 1 p.m. ET

About Collibra
As the leader in data governance, Collibra helps organizations across the world gain competitive advantage by maximizing the value of their data across the enterprise. Collibra is the only solution purpose-built to address the gamut of data stewardship, governance, and management needs of the most complex, data-intensive industries. Our flexible and configurable cloud-based or on-premises solution puts people and processes first – automating data governance and management to quickly and securely deliver trusted data to the business users who need it. Learn more at

Media Contact:
Colleen Irish

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Membership Options

Chef putting gloves on

Membership Levels & Pricing

We offer flexible membership levels. Select a membership below to get started.

Start-Up Level

10 hours per month

You’re ready to start but you only need 10 or less hours every month in the kitchen. Start-up level is for you.

Innovator Level

20 hours per month

A perfect option for the up-and-coming food professional. Full access for 20 hours per month.

Professional Level

40 hours per month

Perfect for established companies looking to increase their production output and handling.

Diamond Level

60 hours per month

With up to 60 hours per month in the kitchen, you’ll be cooking up success. Need more hours? See below.

Immokalee Residents are permitted to use the facility for 5 hours per month for $75 per month.  This is part of our initiative to encourage new and aspiring food-based businesses in the Immokalee area to grow and thrive at our Culinary Accelerator.

Do you like the idea of the Culinary Accelerator and want to support the cause? Are you starting your own business, but you aren’t ready to commit to a full membership? Become an affiliate for $25 per month.  This will allow you to attend networking events, rent storage space, and work towards becoming a full level member at your own pace.

Do you need more than 60 hours each month to grow your culinary empire? Our Michelin level is for you. With 80+ hours per month, your business will blossom!


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2018 Pumpkins On The Bridge Photo Gallery

A Huge THANK YOU to all the folks who ventured out on Tuesday, Oct 30th, 2018 in the Coloma Lotus Valley. To our neighbors to the North, South, East & West who also came to town to participate in this year’s Pumpkins on The Bridge, thank you for being a part of it.

The count on Tuesday, October 30th at 9:00pm was a whopping 432 pumpkins. The count on Wednesday, October 31st at 5:30pm was 409 pumpkins and while we were counting there were still new ones being placed on the bridge.

To the local business that offered up dinner, fun, treats and contest and to the group who had a tailgate party that everyone was welcome, THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!.

Thank you to the folks who came out on November 1st to remove all the candles and hardware out of the pumpkins and to those who stayed to load up the trucks and trailers. We had a fantastic showing of folks for clean up.

And an even bigger THANK YOU to Sue & Brian of Garden Valley who took all but 10 (painted & bedazzled aka: uneatable) pumpkins for their livestock. Did you know that pumpkin is a natural de-wormer? I didn’t but now I do.

It was a wonderful turn out with so much positive vibes everywhere you went. This is why we love living in such a beautiful small town community.

Click on the photos below to enlarge.

Check out the YouTube video at https://youtu.be/8__BRnOQdS4