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Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Burger 21 A Bust in Less Than 90 Days?

Burger joint "temporarily closed" in Snellville.

Burger 21, which opened its Snellville location at 1575 Scenic Highway in early June, has "temporarily closed," according to its website and facebook.  The restaurant shared an outparcel space in the Academy Sports + Outdoors-anchored shopping center but had little street visibility.

The restaurant reportedly closed last week.

On August 26th, a facebook user named Jimmy Thompson posted to the Snellville Burger 21 facebook page asking:

"Why is your Snellville location closed?"

On August 29th Burger 21 responded saying:

"Hi Jimmy! We are sorry to say that our Snellville location is temporarily closed. We do not have a re-opening date at this time. Thank you for visiting us and we are sorry for the impact our closing has had. We invite you to dine at one of our other locations in Buford, Johns Creek, and Buckhead, Georgia."

The phrasing of the above statement leads me to believe the closure may be permanent.  Alternatively, sources with knowledge of the situation indicate there may be a franchisee issue.  These same sources remain hopeful that corporate will install a new franchisee to reopen the restaurant.

Burger 21's opening came just ahead of the recent opening of Freddy's, a popular steakburger and custard eatery.  Culver's, another similar eatery, plans to open just north of Burger 21, in the coming months. Additionally, Cook Out, the hugely popular North Carolina-based burger joint, is coming to Snellville too, just south of Burger 21.

Earlier this month, Burger 21 announced it had signed a multi-unit franchise agreement to develop two additional restaurants in the Atlanta area. Father-and-son franchisee team Dwight Pearson and Jamion Ridon plan to open two restaurants in Midtown and Sandy Springs over the next two years.  The father-son duo plan to open their first Burger 21 location in Sandy Springs by fall 2017, and a second location in Midtown the following fall.

Aside from the Snellville location, existing Atlanta area Burger 21 restaurants are located in Buckhead, Buford and Johns Creek.

Burger 21 currently has about 24 restaurants open nationwide.

The first Burger 21 opened in Tampa in late 2010.  The chain was created by the owners of The Melting Pot.

Are you surprised to see Burger 21 "temporarily closed" in Snellville?   If you live nearby, who offers the best "bang for your buck" burger in Snellville?  If the closure is in fact permanent, what would you like to see open in place of Burger 21?

Please share your thoughts below

Anonymous said...

Never thought the Snellville location was good visibility wise. Getting in and out of that corner center can be awkward. Then when they finally opened the layout of the restaurant was strange unlike the Buford location that seemed to work and flow better. The franchisee problem sounds plausible, because they took a very long time to open up and once they did the gentleman who looked to be in charge appeared to be unsure of it all.

Personally I don't like the food its too expensive trying the bring a chain boutique vibe that just doesn't resonate well. Many I spoke to had a mediocre to bad experience there and I bet they slowed down significantly once the school year began. A deli cafe like Jason's would do well there. With all the burger options coming to the Scenic Strip corporate at Burger21 might want to consider just cutting their loses in Snellville.

Anonymous said...

Snellville absolutely sucks. it's already bad but it continues to get worse.

Unknown said...

@Anonymous at 10:13, could you be more specific on how exactly Snellville "sucks?"

Anonymous said...

Who could have imagined that Snellville wouldn't support 40 burger restaurants?

Ham said...

I don’t live or work in Snellville, but have several friends who live in Grayson/Loganville so we occasionally meet in Snellville for dinner. While I agree things are being over developed and long term this could lead to a lot of empty run down business, but I’m not sure it’s fair to say that currently, “Snellville sucks”.

There are several nice places to eat and shop down there and while traffic is bad it’s by no means the worst in the Atlanta area. Local government needs to slow down a little and take a more long term strategy to future growth, but in general I’d say things by no means “suck”.

Anonymous said...

One of the top academically performing high schools in the Gwinnett, GA, USA has a Snellville address. And developers have a lot more land to buy from wealthy locals who want to flee this area and get out before it truly does "suck". Yes the city and county municipalities in especially southern Gwinnett need to slow it down because they are facing citizens that are fighting to keep the this area from "sucking". They might think about what they are attracting versus the tax property base that will be gone "buh bye" when unScenic highway turns into looking like Memorial Drive in about 20 years. A commenter already stated that commercial RE like the Avenues or "sucky" Shoppes only have a 15-20 life expectancy.

Brookwood. When it starts to decline then Snellville will begin to "suck".

Burger21 probably wouldn't survive too long if they came back with all the bad press and experiences. Five Guys would do better than Burger21.

Anonymous said...

"Who could have imagined that Snellville wouldn't support 40 burger restaurants?"

With Burger 21 gone now there are just 20.

Anonymous said...

Went to Culvers this week in Dawsonville. The quality of everything is top notch made from scratch. Very fresh burgers, you can taste the difference. Even the fish is hand dipped. Custard is creamy as can be. I want a Culvers closer to ATLANTA. DEKALBish. Lastly, was a huge fan of cookout and Culvers is way ahead of them in every way.

Skrybe said...

Yes, a Five Guys would do much better there. Whoever thought putting a burger boutique and a jewelry store in the same parking lot with an Academy Sports store was a good idea was someone who clearly did not care about researching target audiences. I thought they were both a bad idea as soon as I saw what was being built. No surprise here that Burger 21 is already going down in flames. Once Culver's opens less than 2 minutes down the road, this place will be forgotten.

Anonymous said...

The foundation construction has already begun at the Culver's site. Having Culver's on one end of Scenic, Cookout near the other end, and Freddy's & Steak N Shake in the middle of this bumper to bumper traffic will probably be fine on the burger front. Oh the Checkers at the corner of RR Pkwy which I don't ever go to.

Construction has started on Cracker Barrel. Cookout and Taco Bell building are going up fast. Was told that McAllister's Deli was looking to open in Snellville.

Always up at Academy Sports buying stuff for my kids and last night I saw several people walk up and read the 'temporarily' closed sign on the windows at Burger 21. My ametuer business instincts tell me that opening back up wouldn't bring customers back think cutting their loses even though that is probably a lot of money lost. Diners can go to the Buford location when at MOG if they want Burger 21.

Anonymous said...

Culvers is like a Dairy Queen, just a step above it. What is unbelievable is that Burger21 sold a franchise to a different franchisee than the current one that commited to six of them and that they are going to allow the second franchises to open in Sandy Springs when there is already one at Chastain Square. I would be upset if I was the first franchisee and this new one was encroaching on my area.

Anonymous said...

2 months and Burger21 is still "temporarily" closed in SNVL. They have been closed longer than they were open. Corporate needs to make a decision and just cut their loses. We personally will not go back to this location. JMHO

Anonymous said...

Have lived in Snellville for 15 years..... I have never seen an area ran by a bunch of non thinking , tax driven goofballs like this. Areas such as Lawrenceville square, Duluth Square, Lilburn square, Decatur square, Suwanee Square , Etc .... actually have forward thinking people on their councils. They have developed an area where people can park and walk to pubs and eateries . In Snellville , your clothes will go out of style before you make it 1/2 a mile in any direction. Our city council's solution is to build 5 more hamburger joints, 5 more nursing homes, 3 more jewelry stores , 6 more grocery stores , apartments, and 600 more houses. WITH NO PLAN for traffic relief..... The only savior right now for this area is Brookwood High School.....but..... when they have to start putting learning pods( BS name for trailers) at the high school to accommodate the 10000 students.....that's when the area is in the toilet..... adios Snellville! The true folks that tried to protect this area will be leaving this fast food fiestaville in droves looking for what this town used to be. Great job city councilmen and women!

Anonymous said...

To Anoymous at November 7, 2016 at 9:29 PM

The city leadership cannot force business and restuarants that you erroneously believe will thrive in your city. Cities get what the demographics can support and a lot of research goes into what a city like Snellville can and will support. Comparing cities like Snellville in the demographically decaying part of southern Gwinnett to more established and progressive cities you mentioned is ludacris. Open your eyes and look around everywhere in Snellville but Brookwood and you will see why Snellville will never be like even a Liburn or Decatur.

Burger21 Snellville was in a bad location with subpar management - operator. They will not open back up and I bet Pollo Tropical closes there too. Snellville can plan and have a vision but the demographics are the key to making those plans work and come to fruition.

Anonymous said...

I would love to see a TOM &CHEE there in snellville and please put a steak & shake on hwy 78 where the Bojangles is....that place is always empty and dead!

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Home Away From Home - An Intimate Festival Celebrating Brooklyn's Creative Communities

It's been a crazy year getting Artery going in NYC and it wouldn't be possible without the incredible creative communities that have been doing this long before our site had a single line of code. We want to celebrate them in a big way. An all day, around the world, DIY Disneyland. Artery showcases are intimate - that's the whole idea. But for one day, we're gonna do a day long extravaganza to celebrate all of the communities who have taught and inspired us. And despite the earnest description, this will be a day of passion and mystery. No seriously, unforgettable. JAPAN Collective JAPAN is a Brooklyn based performance collective that hosts semi monthly showcases to give artists working in all spheres a space to share their work and engage new audiences. JAPAN was founded by Waylen Roche in Fall 2015. After attending a performance party in Berlin, Roche began hosting events in his BedStuy apartment on Jefferson Avenue. Jefferson Avenue Performance Art Night began to take shape, and has since then expanded its horizons to warehouses, rooftops and venues around Brooklyn. Brooklyn Wildlife Brooklyn Wildlife is the media - all things indie. Avocado Johnson At Avocado Johnson we showcase talents from the worlds of Comedy, Music, and Journalism. Our aim is to educate audiences by both including and entertaining them during performances (drinks and snacks included). With events like Secret Av Club, Doughnuts & Comedy, and our Monthly Artist Cover Show Avocado Johnson makes the audience just as important as the performer. Fooju Dance Fooju Dance Collaborative brings you high-risk dance with very low stakes. Fooju’s aim is to bring the outlandish qualities of the imagination into normal places like your living room, kitchen, backyard, or lap. High caliber dancers (420 friendly) express themselves through a cabaret of millennial music tastes with perhaps surprisingly crisp choreography. Fooju first began performing in homes in January 2014 and has been accepting anywhere as a staged since. In 2017, Fooju did their first Artery show and immediately became addicted to the sense of community and collaboration. Fooju wants to make the chimerical intimately real. Home Audio Home Audio is a performance series based in Brooklyn that hosts shows of experimental music/dance/art in people's homes. The series is curated by Mara Mayer and has been hosting shows about once a month since 2011. Soon to be Happy - A Comedy Collective We’re a really sexy community of soon to be happy comedians creating comedy and space for comedy. We pride ourselves on bypassing comedy clubs, performance venues, bars, and Madison Square Garden who we can’t get off our back. There’s lots of gatekeepers in comedy. This is our resistance - to perform, grow funnier, and get gayer. Oh and we’re super gay and love diversity.

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Welcome      Who Will Be The Antichrist

Who Will Be The Antichrist

These studies are from the Website of:
Who Will Be The Antichrist

Don’t be surprised when the Islamic Arab Antichrist, who will be considered among Muslims to be the 12th Imam, suddenly attacks Israel driving them into the Negev Desert for 1260 prophetic days. Don’t be surprised when the false Islamic prophet, who will be considered among Muslims to be Isa (Jesus in Islam), causes those in the Middle East to accept the mark of the beast 666.

Revelation 17:10a And there are seven kings: The 7 kings represent the lines of kings which are associated with the 7 kingdoms (mountains) which have and will affect Israel.

Revelation 17:10b  five are fallen, and one is,

The 5 kingdoms which were fallen in John’s day were: Egypt, Assyria, Babylon, Persia, and Greece. The 6th head was one that was reigning in John’s day. It is the same kingdom as Daniel’s 4th beast in Daniel 7 – Rome. The 7th and 8th are counted as one kingdom because they are the same kingdom. It is Islamic! The 7th head had not yet come at the time of John’s writing.

Revelation 17:10c  and the other is not yet come; and when he cometh, he must continue a short space.

The one (7th head) that had not yet come when John was writing was the Islamic line, which Muhammad at age 40 brought in around AD 622, long after the New Testament was completed.

The last king is the resurrected king of the first Islamic kingdom known as the 12th Imam or al Mahdi, the Islamic Messiah.

Revelation 17:11  And the beast that was, and is not, even he is the eighth, and is of the seven, and goeth into perdition.

The last king of the 7th head Islamic kingdom was Hujjat ibn Hasan ibn Ali born in AD 868. He was in the Islamic line of Kings with a DNA link back to the founder of Islam, Muhammad in AD 622. Hujjat was the 12th Imam, and he only continued a short space before he went into what Shiites call “the occultation” in AD 939, some 71 years after his birth. Mujjat is believed to continue in the occultation until a time decided by God, when Mujjat, the Mahdi, the 12th, Imam will reappear to bring absolute justice to the world with the help of Isa who is the Jesus in Islam and is the 2nd beast in Revelation 13. This Muslim Mahdi will be antichrist! And he will be believed by Muslims to be the 12th Imam who has been in hiding since AD 939.

According to Muslim teachings he has been hidden in deep caverns in the earth until it is time for him to rise again. At which time he will return as the al Madhi, and as the Islamic Messiah, to lead them to world conquest with the help of Isa. So, the 12th Imam would be the last King of the kingdom destroyed by the Mongolian kingdom’s sword, as well as the current Islamic Kingdom being resurrected from ashes of a dead kingdom. Head 7 is the same Islamic kingdom separated by hundreds of years with the same king.

Revelation 17:12-13  12 And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast.  13 These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.

The 10 horns represent 10 Islamic kings in the Revelation 13 beast, except there are no crowns on them in Revelation 17! Why? Apparently after the antichrist’s deadly wound is healed they will give their power to the antichrist beast whom they believe will be the 12th Imam; and he will be king over an Islamic Caliphate!

Revelation 13:3a   And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed:

Some say that this wounded head represents the 4th beast of Daniel 7 (Rome). This is not so! Daniel’s 4th beast is the 6th head (Rome) on John’s beast. The wounded head is the 7th head who returns to be the 8th. The 7th and 8th head is not Rome, it is Islamic!


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Trivium Pursuit

How should a grandmother teach the Bible to a 4 year old?

Dear Laurie,

My parents live together with my brother’s family. My brother has a 4 years old daughter. Only my mother is a believer, but she is an isolated believer. She became a Christian only a year ago or so. She would like to teach my niece about God and according to Christian values, but how? Can you give any clue? There are many kids Bible craft on the net. Maybe she should play with her granddaughter and talk about Bible stories meanwhile?

Thank you

I would suggest that she regularly read to the child from the Bible, explaining as needed. Have the child memorize very short verses – no pressure. Pray with the child, teaching her to pray. Speak to her about the Lord regularly. Be a good example to the child. Make sure the mother and father are not offended and alienated by this. Titus 2:3-5

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What To Do If Your Tropical Fish Is Sick

Fish can get sick for many reasons. The usual cause is stress caused by a rapid fluctuations in temperature, poor diet, a poor environment in general, or by poor or incorrect water conditions. The 1st thing to do is to determine the cause and then select a suitable course of action. Most health problems cannot be effectively treated until the causes or causes have been eliminated. Check that the temperature of the tank is staying consistent, basic water conditions (ammonia, nitrite, and nitrate) are within proper levels, and how many and which fish are effected. If only one fish is effected it may be a simple problem.

fish-healthWhat does the effected fish look like? Are there obvious lumps, spots, cloudy patches, or skin problems? How are/is the effected fish behaving? An accurate description, and a good picture of the effected fish, if possible, can be very helpful when discussing the problem with your retailer or consulting knowledgeable fish keepers like those on our Facebook page. Diagnosing which disease your fish has needs to be done correctly before a course of treatment can be started.

The best place to start would be to check our page of common tropical fish diseases to see if you can determine what it might be from there.

Prevention is always better than having to deal with sick fish so make sure you are providing the correct environment for the fish you are keeping. Is there enough room, the right kind and quantity of hiding spots, the correct substrate, proper lighting, and the correct tank mates? Has the fish been eating well? Are other fish harassing the sick fish, even before it was sick? Answering these questions and the ones discussed earlier will help you accurately diagnose and prevent fish sickness.

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Ideas For How To Maintain Your Cat Happy

Feral cats are cats that reside their life wandering free on the streets or in the wild. These cats are deserted and make up almost half of the complete cat populace. Hold reading through for the cat care details that you crave.

Maintain your drape cords away from your cats. The cats will start off enjoying with the cords and they can effortlessly wrap close to their necks. This could significantly injure or even kill them. Protected your cords so they are out of the way and out of sight.

Look a neighborhood animal shelters for cats. Shelters have wonderful animals obtainable for adoption, and the price isn’t really that higher. You actually are conserving a existence and maintaining the feline populace in verify all in 1!

Make repeated checkups with your vet to preserve your cat healthier. They should get their vaccinations and have a complete examine up. Consider to stick with one particular vet during the existence of your pet. This is since this man or woman will know your cat and the historical past of the animal.

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Thursday, December 31, 2009

Stop With The Twitta

I had hoped to end the year on something more profound, but I ran out of 2009 ...

This is fun (ht the normally rather more serious VFR/Lawrence Auster):

And for something more uplifting, check out The Specials doing a guest appearance on The Geary Blog.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Some Hope

It is nice to end a dismal year on a positive note.

AIB Bank have come on board to partner my company in developing the AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator. It builds on earlier work by Amárach and is intended to keep businesses informed about the mood of Irish consumers when it comes to spending, saving and borrowing.

We'll be surveying 1,000 adults every month - combining online and face-to-face methodologies to ensure the results are as representative of the national mood as possible.

Furthermore, the ARI is designed to identify turning points in the economy: and right now we are at one of those points as the majority of people feel the economic situation is bad but stable or even improving. A stark contrast with when we first started measuring attitudes back in April as the chart shows.

You can download the first of the ARI results - for December 2009 - here.

All suggestions for themes/topics/questions that might be usefully addressed in a survey designed to guage trends in consumer behaviour and their impact in turn on the wider economy are welcome.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Lesser Britain

The execution of Akmal Shaikh by the Chinese is another, sad symptom of the United Kingdom's decline. He would not have been executed if he was a citizen of the United States. The Chinese still respect the power that comes out of the barrel of a gun - and America still has the bigger guns (economically as well as militarily). Britain obviously doesn't.

This matters to us in Ireland. Not in the "England's difficulty is Ireland's opportunity" sense of old (when, regrettably, it did make some sense). But rather in terms of the extent to which Ireland's economic prospects are still tied to those of the UK: our largest export market and the only country with which we happen to share a land border.

I've fretted about Britain before, and I'm still fretting. Like most Irish people I have a normal, neighbourly desire to see our cousins across the Irish Sea do well for themselves (bound as we are by the ties of history, trade, demography, culture and legal systems). Growing up a nationalist in Northern Ireland I had a rather different attitude. But I've got over it - as have most I reckon.

However the 'difficulty/opportunity' duality might be taking on another form. Optimistic as it may seem, I expect that Ireland will emerge from most of our present difficulties as 2010 progresses. Unfortunately, I suspect that Britain might well enter a very difficult period at the same time. The UK government has still to respond to the challenges of public sector overspending and massive deficits - nor will it until a Conservative government takes power by the middle of the year. Worse for us, sterling looks set to decline further - even precipitously - against the euro: with some already talking of sterling-euro parity in 2010.

At the heart of the uncertainty about the UK is the dawning realisation that Britain - like Ireland - squandered much of the boom on unsustainable policies and practices. As Max Hastings put it recently, Britain's 'long weekend' is over:
The national mood approaching Christmas 2010 and 2011 is likely to be much bleaker than today’s. Most people will have significantly less money. If the Conservative party wins power, it will fail in its responsibility if it does not cull large numbers of state workers. More businesses will go bust.

There are fundamental uncertainties about how Britain will earn its living for the rest of the 21st century, especially as its earnings from financial services shrinks. Optimists talk up the value of intellectual property and the English language. But how many people can live off the likes of television’s Top Gear programme, the history books of Simon Schama and the novels of Hilary Mantel?

The best British manufacturers are world class, but such bosses as Sir John Rose of Rolls-Royce offer warnings about the shortcomings of the educational system in sustaining a workforce fit to compete with young Singaporeans. Service industries, tourism notable among them, will continue to generate substantial income, but scarcely sufficient to fund the Trident nuclear deterrent replacement and other symbols of big power status, to which both the Tories and Labour cherish pretensions.

We are cursed with a bloated sense of self-entitlement, reflected in the excesses of public spending. If we possess a capacity for private contentment that some Americans might envy, the reverse of the medal is a reflexive lassitude.

Some lessons there for Ireland too, no doubt. I do hope that England's forthcoming difficulties do not hamper Ireland's opportunities for growth. Though our destiny will continue to be tied to the larger island next door for the foreseeable future - even if Britain's status in the world continues its inexorable decline.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Reality Checked

If you haven't seen Avatar yet - but intend to - then you might want to skip this post. I'd certainly recommend it for the 3-D, cinematic experience: all three hours of it!

Still here? Okay, if popular culture is a reflection of a society's values (however attenuated the expression) then what does Avatar say about contemporary American/Western values? To put it mildly I would say they are somewhat 'conflicted'. On the one hand we have a fantasy about a peaceful, indigenous people living in harmony with nature on planet Pandora - until the arrival of greedy humans wielding superior technology. On the other, we have the reality of 'greedy' humans creating the wealth and the technology that enables them to blow $300 million telling a tale about imaginary blue people on another planet ...

The storyline is a riff on Pocahontas/Dances with Wolves with a bit of the Matrix and a few other movie references thrown in for good measure. Which is not to detract from the visual power of the movie itself: it's pretty obvious where the $300 million went when you see it. Nor is there necessarily anything wrong (or even avoidable) about previously used storylines. The best stories are the ones we keep telling one another.

But the story's 'morality' is decidely different to that of, say, Lord of the Rings which was set outside human time, but featured some of the same themes of good vs. evil etc. Avatar, on the other hand, is set in human time: 2154 to be precise. And we are left in no doubt that it is we humans (or the English-speaking, Western variety) that are the baddies. This has already provoked criticisms from some: ranging from those who think it is anti-White to those who think it is pro-Libertarian. Take your pick.

Or maybe not: you could just enjoy the movie for its entertainment value and ignore any 'messages' in the story. As most people will I'm sure. Some how I doubt if anyone will to join the Green Party on the strength of it. The fact is, we Irish have a fairly clear grasp of the distinction between fantasy and reality. Take, for example, the recent Eurobarometer survey. Asked to what extent they agree that 'economic growth must be a priority for my country, even if it affects the environment', more Irish 'agreed totally' than any other Western EU country. In total, 61% of Irish adults agreed - compared with an EU27 average of 47%.

The Irish have never been shy about seeking opportunities elsewhere: so I guess there'll be a few on the first flight to Pandora - or its equivalent - when the time comes.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Twitter Ate My Blog

I haven't been blogging much lately: the 'paid-for stuff' inevitably gets priority over the 'fun stuff'. But it seems I'm not alone. John Burns frets in today's Sunday Times that the number of Irish blogs has peaked and may be heading into decline.

Perhaps it's an economy thing: as the economy worsens more people like to sound off about it online in blogs etc. And when the economic situation starts improving then they're too busy making hay to be indulging in rants, no matter how therapeutic. Hmmm, blogs as a leading economic indicator - I had never thought of that before.

But Burns makes another point: more people are using Twitter and Facebook to get their messages across - and it's a lot less work than blogging. I don't use either (though I tried Twitter for a few months). From ePioneer to eLuddite in 27 months - I just can't keep up!

Apres Nous La Neige

They're calling it 'snowmaggedon' in America's North East as a record breaking snow storm brings Christmas shopping to a halt (and everything else besides). The big chill temporarily gripping Northern Europe and North America is perhaps a fitting end to all the hot air we witnessed in Copenhagen.

Weather isn't climate of course, and even in Ireland winter tends to be that bit cooler than summer (though it can be hard to tell sometimes ...) But No Hopenhagen is better than Hopenhagen if we are spared the worst of both worlds: Europeans bearing the costs of self-inflicted eco-rectitude whilst the rest of the world keeps on going its merry, carbon-emitting way. Though it's probably too late for the 1,700 steel workers being made redundant in the UK, for which their employers - Corus - will be 'rewarded' with nearly £0.25 billion in carbon credits.

The farce in Copenhagen nevertheless appears to have succeeded in annoying everybody - unity of sorts I guess. Stewart Brand reminds us that there are four sides to the climate story, and I suspect that none of them are all that happy with what appears to be nothing more than a decision to make a decision later.

Richard Tol has a world-weary take on it all:
One could hope that the failure in Copenhagen will lead to a fundamental re-think of international climate policy. I’ve hoped that for over 15 years now, and I’m not holding my breath this time.
Nor am I.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Growth Conspiracy

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.
Frédéric Bastiat 1848
I was talking to a friend the other day about how we were coping with the recession in our respective businesses. (Or conspiring to expropriate more surplus value from the proletariat, depending on your point of view of course.) He has fifty employees - twice my own number. But we have faced some of the same challenges: reducing supply to meet demand (including, unfortunately, staff levels), and reducing prices to secure sales. In terms of staff numbers and prices, both our businesses are back to about 2004 we reckon. Broadly in line with the economy I suspect.

Neither of us are content to stay in 2004. Like tens of thousands of businesses throughout Ireland who have made it this far, we are juggling the the dual concerns of surviving the remainder of the recession and positioning ourselves for recovery when it comes. Neither outcome is guaranteed of course. To that extent, growth-oriented businessmen are like Bastiat's 'good economist': dealing with the seen and the unseen, including an uncertain future that must be foreseen.

Oddly enough, economics itself has little useful to say about the nature of business, and especially the firm. Nor would it appear that the economic theory of the firm has improved much over these past twenty years - according to Paul Walker. But perhaps it doesn't matter. Most business people work in and run small firms with fifty or fewer employees: the quintessential entrepreneurs. Perhaps understanding the nature of entrepreneurship itself is enough in the absence of any fuller theory of the firm? I like Art Carden's perspective on the topic in an insightful essay entitled A Note on Profit, Loss and Social Responsibility. Here is his take:
The profitable entrepreneur does well by society in that he takes resources and converts them into something more valuable. The unprofitable entrepreneur does poorly by society by wasting resources; nonetheless, even entrepreneurial losses provide valuable information about market conditions and the range of employments of labor and capital that are (or are not) profitable. Profitable entrepreneurs show us what to try. Unprofitable entrepreneurs show us what not to try.

With apologies to Adam Smith, the entrepreneur brings about a socially beneficial outcome which was no part of his intention by seeking his own self-interest. Profitable entrepreneurs are rewarded for creating value, while unprofitable entrepreneurs, though punished for wasting resources, nonetheless confer benefits on society because their unprofitable ventures reveal information about production plans that do not create value. The prospect of profit means that the plan will be tried; the reality of loss means that revealed information will be trustworthy.
I also like Carden's idea that entrepreneurship - and business for that matter - is fundamentally about risk management:
Entrepreneurship is an exercise in risk transfer and risk reduction, and those who become entrepreneurs are those with a comparative advantage in bearing risk. We can say that this is ethically laudable: entrepreneurs (and, in particular, capitalist entrepreneurs) have a comparative advantage in reducing risk and in smoothing out future consumption patterns. It is the job of the capitalist-entrepreneur to advance income to current factors of production (labor and capital) in anticipation of being able to sell output at a future date for more than the costs of production.
This has important implications for Ireland's recovery. Just as there are good economists and bad, so also there are good unintended consequences as well as (the better know) bad ones. In fact, economic growth (and the affluence that it brings to billions) is an 'unintended consequence' of the decisions of millions of individual businessmen. Think of William Nordhaus' calculation that only 2.2% of the value of innovations accrues to the innovators: the other 97.8% goes to the users of the innovations. A very positive unintended consequence indeed.

Cambridge economist Sir Partha Dasgupta reminds us in the 2009 Royal Economic Society public lecture that there are a number of vital elements necessary to sustain growth (reported in the FT). These include physical capital, human capital and technological capital. Here in Ireland we have a quantitatively and qualitatively better supply of these 'capitals' as we end the decade than we had at the start of the decade. We also have considerably more social capital - including effective public institutions - than ten years ago. It is the combination of these capitals that Dasgupta sees as providing the basis to launch and sustain growth to the benefit of society as a whole.

My friend and I - any many other Irish people in businesses - can use these capitals to grow our businesses. Ireland's future economic success - both job and wealth creation - will be achieved one business plan at a time; even knowing that many plans will fail (risk again). Whether it is launching new businesses (I've been following the extraordinary story of Demand Media lately, ht MediaFuturist) or re-launching existing ones, it is unintended consequences that will secure a better future for all Ireland's people.

The 'foreseen unseen' - Bastiat would approve.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Our Destiny Is Simplicity

I've written this blog post in Ommwriter (and then pasted it into blogger obviously). What is Ommwriter? It is a kind of 'ambient word processor' (for Macs only unfortunately): it is designed to filter out distractions - something we face all the time when we spend a lot of our time online (The Sunday Times reports that our brains are currently bombarded by 2.3 words per second, or about 100,000 words a day).

The experience of using Ommwriter is really ... rather ... mellow ... like something Brian Eno would produce. The experience is auditory as well as visual, so you can choose different background colours and even different keyboard sounds as you type.

I feel it is designed for poets and novelists rather than bloggers - there is no hypertext function for instance (the links in this post were added by me using Blogger). But then isn't hypertext the apotheosis of distraction?

On the other hand, I am working on a non-fiction book, and anything that reduces distraction is very welcome. Though I might be concerned about productivity - the experience is so mellow I could just get tooooo relaxxxed. What's the hurry man?

Ommwriter is another example of the Quantified Self (one of my favourite topics), i.e.: using the potentialities of emerging technologies to forge a deeper connection with the user - and to life's tempo - and a deeper level of self-awareness as a result.

What I also like about Ommwriter is how clean the user interface is. No menus (they're hidden until you move your cursor to the menu space); and a screen completely filled with a serene image (currently a snow covered field on a foggy day). I have often thought that our destiny is simplicity: that the ultimate trajectory of The Technium - to use Kevin Kelly's phrase for the evolving world of technology - is to enfold itself back into the world of flesh and blood people.

Robin Hanson is right, this is the dreamtime, and our descendents will look back at us in bemused wonder. But they will do so via tools like Ommwriter. A sufficiently advanced technology will be indistinguishable from humanity ...

Friday, December 11, 2009

Economists from Outer Space

Marx wasn't a Marxist and Christ wasn't a Christian. And now it seems Malthus wasn't a Malthusian. Or so says Adam Martin in a guest blog on Aidwatch who notes that Malthus never assumed that people would keep on having babies regardless of the consequences (namely: mass starvation). Instead Malthus observed that:
"Impelled to the increase of his species by an equally powerful instinct, reason interrupts his career, and asks him whether he may not bring beings into the world, for whom he cannot provide the means of subsistence."
In other words social innovations (marriage before sex) and technological innovations (condoms/the pill) could potentially avoid the outcome he and others worried about. The other side of the equation of course is food production. As it happens food production has outpaced food consumption since Malthus' time. Again thanks to the technological innovations of Fritz Haber among others.

But let's not forget the economists. As Martin reminds us, the laws of economics are more powerful than the laws of physics:
I once saw Deirdre McCloskey illustrate this by placing a $100 bill on the table. The laws of physics, she reminded the class, dictate that an object at rest tends to stay at rest. Economics tells us that errant $100 bills laying out in the open do not remain unattended for long. She assured the students that, were she to leave the room for several hours, economics would better predict Mr. Franklin’s fate.
Indeed: and it seems that the biggest influence on population growth is affluence - women in more affluent societies tend to have fewer children, as noted by Andrew Jack in the Financial Times recently. However some observers fear that this process in now going into reverse:

Using data from 1975, he and his colleagues confirmed a classic straight-line inverse correlation between wealth and fertility in dozens of countries. A fall in total fertility rates – the theoretical number of births in a woman’s reproductive lifetime – coincides with a rising score on the UN’s human development index, a measure of standard of living, education and life expectancy.

But replotting to include data from 2005, they spotted a striking number of exceptions among richer countries that had exceeded the very high score of 0.9 on the index, suggesting instead a rotated “J” curve – the start of a rise after a steady drop. The US, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Germany were among those showing a recent rise in fertility.

It's too early to tell perhaps. But now there are other worries: instead of worrying about Malthusian starvation we now have to worry about Malthusian climate change. Hence a new initiative by the Optimum Population Trust (OPT) which has launched PopOffsets whereby you can offset your carbon footprint by, er, funding the distribution of condoms and the like. It might sound dodgy but here's their reasoning:
The cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the trust claims that family planning is the cheapest way to reduce carbon emissions. Every £4 spent on contraception, it says, saves one tonne of CO2 being added to global warming, but a similar reduction in emissions would require an £8 investment in tree planting, £15 in wind power, £31 in solar energy and £56 in hybrid vehicle technology.
Fewer people = fewer emissions. Fewer poor people in poor countries that is. I'm uncomfortable with all this for some reason. So is Frank Ferudi, who observes about the OPT initiative that:
Once newborn babies are dehumanised and recast as little pollution machines it becomes possible to advocate their elimination as an exercise in the reduction of carbon emissions. A world that can place an equal sign between a baby and carbon is one that has lost its faith in humanity.

... The OPT’s trade-off between birth control and energy-saving technology – where a simple condom is said to be a better investment for ‘saving the planet’ than hi-tech inventions – is testimony to today’s disturbing mood of estrangement from human life. It is not surprising that offsetting carbon emissions through funding birth control is preferred to technological innovation. Because where technological innovation relies on investing in human potential, Malthusianism is focused on preventing the realisation of human potential.
Poor old Malthus, and maybe a little unfair. Here's Martin again:
What matters is that, when discussing population, we do not forget the basic lessons of economics. A top-down perspective on population that treats treats individuals like mindless lemmings will panic: “Unless we reduce the human population humanely through family planning, nature will do it for us through violence, epidemics or starvation.”

Malthus gets right what both his followers and his more technocratic critics get wrong: the institutions within which individuals make reproductive decisions matter. The way to increase GDP per capita is not to cut the denominator. And while today’s scare tactics (Mali is “really in for a Malthusian disaster,”) and recommendations to stop having babies are not as monstrous as those of yesteryear, we should be wary of those who would intrude on one of the most personal and sacred choices individuals confront – whether to have a child. Nor is population sustainability a mere horse race between libido and technology. Consistent with the approach of classical economists, Malthus treats human nature as constant. Different institutions drive differences in fertility outcomes. In this we should all be Malthusians.

He's right of course. It is economics working with technological innovation that creates a virtuous circle of affluence and abundance that solves the problems that might otherwise engulf us. The same goes for climate change. The government's decision to contribute €100 million to the EU's climate change aid programme is a ridiculous variation on the Population Offsets theme. Instead they and we would be better off announcing 10 x €10 million Carbon Prizes for technological innovations that tackle the causes and consequences of climate change. On the condition that the intellectual property attaching to any prize winning innovations is shared freely with the rest of the world.

We are a young species, only at the start of our story here on Earth. And it won't be confined to Earth. Surfdaddy Orca paints an inspiring picture of the future consequences from the fusion of nano, bio, info, cogno (NBIC) technologies in the latest delightful issue of h+ magazine (h for human that is). One forecast for 2050:

The vast promise of outer space will finally be realized by means of efficient launch vehicles, robotic construction of extraterrestrial bases, and profitable exploitation of the resources of the Moon, Mars, or near-Earth asteroids.

The result of an affluence+innovation wave fuelled by economics. So economics will take us to space: and in that regard, economists are the true astronauts. Live long and prosper ...

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Confidence Tricked

Yesterday's Budget was very, very clever. For weeks now I've been listening to consumers in focus groups and looking at survey results all of which pointed to fearful anticipation of Budget 2010. Now it has come to pass and guess what? ... it wasn't as bad as many (in the private sector, where four out of five work) had feared.

Consumer confidence will be boosted by this budget, and consumer confidence drives consumers spending in the short run. There are other consumer spending stimulants:
  • a reduction in VAT from January (which most expected)
  • a reduction in excise duties on alcohol (which fewer expected)
  • no increase in income tax rates (most expected an increase)
  • our very own 'cash for clunkers' deal on cars (which rather fewer will benefit from)
The carbon tax still leaves fuel prices well below their levels a year ago, so there will be little real impact there. And of course the reductions in public sector pay and social welfare payments will have a deflationary effect - though most if not all of this will be offset by falling savings ratios as people feel the worst is over and they start to loosen their purse and wallet strings. Nevertheless the Government does forecast a further contraction in consumer spending next year. That said, my faith in government forecasts is on the agnostic side I must confess (I like the recent idea from the UK for an independent Office for Fiscal Analysis to separately prepare the economic outlook for their government's budget).

But the recession isn't over yet. Unemployment and business failures are 'lagging indicators' of the state of the economy: so I expect both to worsen even as other indicators (including consumer confidence) start to improve. I expect to see a peak in business failures (especially retail) and unemployment in Q1 (possibly a sharp one); some levelling off in Q2; with the potential for real economic growth setting in in the second half of the year (including consumer spending).

Remember, most consumers don't have debts, and most employees (87%+) will keep their jobs. There is a lot of pent up replacement demand out there (cars especially), and deflation means a lot more bargains to tempt those with money to spend. Indeed, recovery might come sooner if exports improve more quickly on the back of an international recovery now underway; and employers move quickly back into hiring mode. After yesterday I think there's a 60-70% chance Brian Lenihan's bullish prognosis that the worst is over and recovery will gain traction next year is right.

The odds on a June 2010 General Election have just gotten shorter.

Monday, December 7, 2009

The Invisible Hook

Markets abhor a vacuum, which is one reason why piracy is doing so well these days. Did you know that:
Somali pirates have established a stock exchange in Haradheere to raise capital to fund their piracy. It seems to be quite an enterprise. Financiers from near and far are investing. Shares are traded just like on Wall Street, and 10 of the 72 so-called “maritime companies” currently listed have conducted “successful” (presumably meaning profitable) hijackings.
That's according to a fascinating article on the economics of Somali piracy. Piracy has been around for a long time and is probably one of the, er, oldest professions of a collective nature. And there is something admirable about their organisational abilities, even if in the end they are just crooks. As Peter Leeson explains about his book The Invisible Hook in a fascinating interview over at EconTalk, the pirates of old showed remarkable organisational skills in organising their affairs so that piracy was a positive sum game (for pirates that is) rather than deteriorating into pirate-on-pirate violence.

And not all piracy involves speedboats and RPGs these days. There is clear evidence that 'piracy' of digital content is increasingly accepted by young people around the world, regardless of the consequences. And the recession appears to be making it worse.

Here is Ireland we haven't had many pirates since the exploits of Granuaile. But their second cousins - smugglers - are still thriving, as witness the huge shipment of 120 million illegal cigarettes seized in October.

But there is an economic cycle to smuggling as well as to piracy. And a 'piracy bubble' may be at hand judging from developments in Somalia:
One woman interviewed in the Reuters report was waiting at the stock exchange to collect her share of a ransom collected from a Spanish tuna fishing vessel. She had contributed a rocket-propelled grenade that she got in alimony from her divorce. “I have made $75,000 in only 38 days since I joined the ‘company’,” she said.
Of course if they ever want to go legitimate and buy some cheap Irish properties with their ill-gotten gains then I'm sure NAMA could help them. The sooner the better for all concerned.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

The Celtic Leopard

The Sunday Business Post today reported on my article in the latest issue of the Irish Banking Federation's About Banking entitled: The New Normal - Why Personal Banking Will Never Be The Same Again (pages 9-11).

I suggest that Ireland's banks are like Fabrizio, Prince of Salina, in Giuseppe di Lampedusa's one and only novel The Leopard. They are on the cusp of a new era: driven in the short run by our economic crisis and in the long run by less favourable demographic trends.

Though perhaps an opportunity for a budding Don Calogero, the Prince's bourgeois nemesis in the novel.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Tie Ulysses to the mast

The Government's negotiators need to put wax in their ears. The public sector pay debacle is a classic example of conflicting time preferences. On the one hand there is the short term promise of no public sector strikes if the government cuts a deal on unpaid leave. On the other, there's the long term need to secure fundamental, structural changes to public sector pay arrangements that will undoubtedly entail serious industrial conflict. Fragile peace at a price now or secure peace at a cost in the future?

David Eagleman explores this dilemma brilliantly (I've mentioned his delightful book Sum before):
After all, no one likes to wait. And the only thing worse than waiting is waiting with uncertainty. A team at Emory University examined what happened when people waited for an impending electrical shock. Some people dreaded the shock so deeply that they chose to receive a more powerful shock earlier rather than wait for a lesser shock to arrive at a later, random time.

One of the key jobs of the human brain is to simulate the future, and the less information it has to work with, the more anxious it becomes. Pinning things down in time makes waiting less troubling. With a clear idea about the order and timescale of events, people are more patient and less anxious.
Doing a deal on unpaid leave has the attraction of getting the shock over with, or so it might seem. But there's a bigger problem, as Eagleman points out:
It’s simply that the present holds more sway than the future. Recently, researchers used brain imaging to monitor people making money-now-or-more-later decisions, and they discovered that the neural networks involved in short- and long-term decision-making are fundamentally separate. In situations of choice, the two systems are often locked in battle against one another.

... People manage the influence of the short-term systems by proactively binding their future options. We see this when a person in good health signs an advance medical directive to pull the plug in the event of a coma, when an alcoholic rids the house of drink to avoid future temptation, or when a person socks money into a Christmas account to keep himself from spending it before December.

Such deals with oneself are what philosophers call Ulysses contracts, after the hero who decided in advance to lash himself to a mast to resist the sirens’ song. The present, calm Ulysses was negotiating with his future, more emotional self.

I think that is part of the extraordinary anger that we witnessed earlier this week in response to the government's apparent capitulation to the public sector unions on unpaid leave. The people of Ireland have in their own minds made a Ulysses Pact with themselves - we'll take the pain in the form of taxes, pay cuts, NAMA and the like so long as there's a binding commitment to secure the benefits from same for all the people in the future.

That anger seems to have caused the government to rethink its stance. Just in time: we're getting very close to the island of the Sirens. Put wax in your ears and tie Ulysses to the mast. And ignore, if you can, their haunting music ...

Friday, December 4, 2009

Family Failure is the Health of the State

We Irish don't invade countries, a fact I'm rather proud of. For some other nations war is the health of the state. But not for Ireland. Nor for most European countries these days. So if it isn't wars and armies and the permanent threat of 'the other' that justifies a stronger state, what does? The answer is obvious: family failure.

The chart is from the recent Demos report on Building Character which argues that 'style of parenting' - and the impact it has on children's characters - trumps everything else in determining the lifetime success of children. More important, apparently, than how many parents you live with, or even if they are your biological parents. The chart would suggest that actually these things do matter, but are dismissed by the authors with the observation that:
Figure 4 shows that children with married parents, both of whom are the child’s biological parent, do best in terms of outcome scores. This group is around twice as likely to be in the top 20 per cent of child outcome scores as are children from lone parent families or step-parented families. Conversely, children with married parents are only half as likely to be in the bottom 20 per cent of child outcomes as are children with lone parents or step-parents. Children with cohabiting parents do worse than those with married parents but better than those with lone
parents or step-parents.
Sort of seems obvious really; two parents potentially means two incomes which is, er, twice as many as one parent. But apparently not:
However, when we control for other characteristics – namely parental style and parental confidence – the relationship between family structure and child outcomes disappears almost entirely. The only remaining correlation is a small difference between married parents and cohabiting parents (probably because marriage is serving as a proxy for more stable and happy partnerships). Crucially, the outcomes for children of lone parents and step-parents are explained by the differences in other family characteristics such as parental confidence and self esteem; being a lone parent or a step-parent does not adversely affect child outcomes in itself.
Which sort of sounds like it's the parents fault don't you think? Indeed, Demos approvingly quotes Professor Stephen Scott as observing that:
Poverty is a factor, but not a central one… I am fond of saying poverty of what? And actually it seems to be poverty of the parent-child experience… that leads to poor child outcomes rather than poverty of a material kind.
Or as the Demos authors explain:
A rich research literature demonstrates that healthy psychological development requires nurture, affection, intellectual stimulation, security and stability. These vital ingredients of a good start in life can of course be provided within any family form. However, there is some evidence that lone parents and cohabiting couples do less well in terms of child outcomes than married couples.

But the causal factors at work here are not straightforward. An analysis undertaken by Kiernan of the MCS found that family status was only very weakly associated with children’s development, once other factors – like poverty, maternal depression and so on – were controlled for.
Which does rather beg the question whether family status and structure might actually have caused the poverty? Jennie Bristow has a few concerns with this. As she notes:
What is striking about this is not only the blithe assertion that all manner of social inequalities and life problems can be obliterated by parents simply setting a few house rules for their toddlers. It is the reduction of a child’s moral development, the building of character that takes place over the course of childhood within a distinct cultural context, to a particular parenting style that results in clearly observable attributes amongst five-year-olds.

Worse, we are told in the technical appendix to the Demos report that the children's behaviour and development they are supposedly measuring is actually based on the opinions of (mainly) their mothers in the survey. Not on any observed behaviour itself. Seems a rather weak basis to dismiss family structure as a significant influence on children's development.

But what has all this to do with the State? Lately I've been sounding like Mr Maguire in The Graduate whose career advice to Dustin Hoffman is just one word: Plastics. Only my advice to young people contemplating their future career options in Ireland is just two words: Family Law.
My advice is inspired by the less than inspirational Civil Partnership Bill. And I'm not referring to the first part of the Bill dealing with gay couples - which seems to be getting most (or make that all) of the airtime during the current debate.

No, my concern is with Part 15 dealing with Cohabitants from clause 169 onwards. As I've noted before, we are sleepwalking into a legal, social and economic disaster without any consideration or awareness. Though some legal professionals are finally beginning to take notice. The legislation purports to extend some of the same 'certainties' to cohabiting couples currently enjoyed by married couples. Only they are the certainties that go with the couple breaking up, not staying together. The bill means that any young man or woman cohabiting as a heterosexual couple for more than three years (two if they have children) are legally liable to have to share their incomes and wealth with the other partner should he or she decide to split up. Do you see the career opportunity here folks?

The gay partnership issue is something of a diversion (though a serious issue in itself). The reality is that the number of gay couples availing of the legislation will be trivially small. Just look at the experience of Northern Ireland whose Registrar General has just reported that in 2008 only 86 same-sex civil partnerships were registered in Northern Ireland, down from 111 in 2007. As I keep saying, gays are a tiny minority of the population and only a minority of gays will want to marry/form a civil partnership if the experience of other countries with gay marriage is anything to go by.

Contrast that with the incidence of cohabitation. According to the 2006 Census, there were 77,781 cohabiting couples without children, and 43,982 cohabiting couples with children. In the UK and USA, cohabiting couples are more likely to break up than married couples, and also more likely to break up if they have children. All of which means that the Civil Partnership Bill will entail more work for the courts, for social services, and even for the Gardai. A healthier State indeed.

But I could be wrong: maybe it's the final phase of the gender war and men have finally won? That's according to one tongue-in-cheek explanation anyway.

Family Law: it's going to be (even) big(ger).

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Val Falvey TD for Taoiseach

Will Val Falvey, TD do to the Irish political establishment what Father Ted did to the Irish Catholic Church? There are some interesting parallels: in Father Ted, Ardal O'Hanlon plays the part of a bumbling, not-quite-sure-why-he's-there character, partnered by a wiser, more cynical sidekick. In Val Falvey TD, Ardal O'Hanlon plays the part of a bumbling ...

The parallels may not stop there. Father Ted made us laugh at the surreal pomposities of priests, bishops and a hierarchy only interested in serving their own interests. But eventually we stopped laughing and started demanding an end to the cover ups and lies that hid an anything-but-funny cesspool of criminal behaviour. With Val Falvey TD we get to laugh at the surreal pomposities of TDs, Ministers and a hierarchy only interested in serving their own interests ...

Which brings us to last night's extraordinary capitulation by Brian Cowen TD at the negotiations on public sector pay. There is now only one logical outcome: the taxpayers of Ireland will be screwed even more than was planned already. Not that logic has ever played much part in Irish politicians' dealings with the public sector. Val Falvey TD would have done a better job.

You heard it here first: Val Falvey TD for Taoiseach.

(You can catch up with the first two episodes on RTE Player by the way).
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Saturday, September 29, 2012

The Past Is Another Covenant

I own an original copy of the Ulster Covenant signed by William James Ward in The City Hall, Belfast, one hundred years ago this weekend. I also have the Ulster Women's Unionist Council version, signed by Ruby Kathleen Rhind in Fisherwick Church, Belfast on Ulster Day: 28th September 2012. Details of all the signatories, by the way, are available on an excellent website run by PRONI.

But as I've observed before, the language of the Ulster Covenant belongs not only to another era, but to another world view entirely, one imbued with Christianity and a sense of identity and belonging now almost alien to modern sensibilities. Fintan O'Toole, in today's Irish Times, has an excellent essay on the centenary of the Ulster Covenant, in which he notes our apparent inability to understand the motives and mindset of the 500,000 people who signed the Covenant:

But, I think, two broader cultural differences stand in the way of that understanding. They were present in 1912 and they haven’t gone away. One lies in the question of sacrifice – or, more particularly, who is to do the sacrificing. Both the Covenant and the Proclamation may evoke a religious, indeed obviously biblical, parallel. But they use two different parts of the Bible. The Covenant is Old Testament: it draws on the idea of God’s special pact with the Jews. The Proclamation is New Testament: not, admittedly, in proclaiming peace and love but in mobilising a parallel between the rebels and Jesus; the idea of a blood sacrifice to save the soul of a damned nation, the deliberate symbolism of Easter, Pearse’s upfront comparisons of himself to Christ and his mother to Mary.
These differences are cultural. In crude terms, Protestants read the Old Testament and Catholics didn’t. But they also shaped the idea of what sacrifice entailed: the Old Testament resonance is collective, the New Testament one is individual. The Covenant uses the idea that an entire people is being sacrificed and is, in return, prepared to sacrifice itself in defiance. The Easter Rising drew on a much more individualised idea of sacrifice: as Jesus died for our sins, so would the elite group of leaders. This divide is still imprinted in cultural memory; the great image of sacrifice in Ulster Protestant memory is the massed ranks of anonymous members of the Ulster Division going over the top at the Somme; that in Irish Catholic memory is the lone leader – Pearse or Connolly – facing a firing squad.

Fintan ends with the thought that perhaps such conflicting, cultural attitudes may have disappeared by the 150th anniversary of the Ulster Covenant. That's the only duff note in the entire article in my opinion. For it seems obvious to me that the Christian world view (Old Testament/New Testament) - whether Calvinist or Catholic - and the attitudes that go with it is entirely irrelevant already to the daily lives, even the political allegiances, of the vast majority of people on both sides of the border. The Orange Tide, and its Catholic equivalent, have long since ebbed. The new covenant of liberal secularism is firmly entrenched on both sides of the border (as in most of the developed world) - and most have signed it, whether they know it or not.

The past is another covenant.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

We The Dreamers

The chart below is from a fascinating report by JWT Intelligence about American perceptions of The American Dream. Time to lose the definite article, 'cause it isn't the same dream any more:

More like a nightmare, depending on your point of view (and age group I suspect). But it does seem to confirm that America's is an increasingly narcissistic culture. Or maybe that should be solipsistic, depending on your gender of course...

Brace for Impact

My company's latest report on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers is just out.  One of the questions we track - agreement with the statement 'I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago' - has fallen sharply. Details below (slides 12-14).

It looks to me like people are bracing for a tough budget and a very tough 2013. Though oddly enough, Irish Times and Irish Independent readers are more 'relaxed' about spending money than the total population. The power of the press?!

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Scary Quote of the Day

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the business pages of the Daily Telegraph about the unfolding secession crisis in Catalonia, Spain driven by the euro crisis and a sense that Catalonia is bearing an unfair share of Spain's austerity:
We are moving from the financial phase of this crisis to the full-blown political phase. It really is playing out like the 1930s.
People sometimes ask when I became a pessimist. The answer is the summer of 1991 when I accompanied Serb troops into the Baroque city of Vukovar – shattered by howitzer shelling within a comfortable drive from Vienna, and strewn with the bodies of dead children – and watched 300 wounded prisoners taken from hospital. I assumed they were at last safe. We learned later that they were machine-gunned shortly afterwards at a collective farm nearby.
The unthinkable was happening before my eyes, though it was small in scale compared to the slaughter of 8,000 Bosnian Muslim men and boys at Srebrenica, which I later covered at a trial in The Hague.
When things go wrong, they really go wrong. Cuidado, Querida España
Though as a commentator on an article in the FT covering the same story points out, nobody seems to see the irony in one, relatively affluent jurisdiction in Spain complaining about bailing out it's more feckless neighbours.

Let's hope the complaints remain vocal only...

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

ET Text Home

This is for everyone (like me) who saw a stream of strange lights in the sky over Dublin last Friday night and wondered, for a moment, could it be...

Via BBC Future - I've selected the 'skeptical scenario', by the way.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Risk Fakers

Why do we fetishize entrepreneurship? I've nothing against people setting up their own businesses - it is one of the hallmarks of a free society after all - but I don't see it as the 'great white hope' for economic recovery in Ireland. And yet, if you just read the press release about the GEM 2011 study on entrepreneurship in Ireland, you would think Irish entrepreneurs are about to unleash another boom on an unsuspecting nation. I don't think so. A look at the actual figures in the report shows that there are as many business people discontinuing established businesses as starting up new ones:

The findings are based on a nationwide survey, by the way, so don't be fooled by those percentages to one decimal place: the margins of error are such that there is effectively no difference between the number of new firm entrepreneurs and those discontinuing existing businesses. The latter could even be higher...

I've been involved in a few start ups in my time, some have succeeded, more have failed. That's normal, I've got over it. But as I've observed before, entrepreneurs aren't heros - most of them are simply trying to survive and setting up their own business is often a sign they've run out of options. Not their first choice. Even the GEM report admits that:
The majority of entrepreneurs are setting up new businesses that are in low technology sectors, are not particularly innovative, have little or no aspiration for growth, and focus on the local or domestic market.
So not quite the next Google or Apple...

We're not alone in our obsession with entrepreneurs. The RSA in the UK recently published a somewhat giddy report on Generation Enterprise, explaining how young people were building a brave new economy on what it calls 'self-generated value' (SGV). All those new apps for iPhones and Facebook will sweep away the rust belt of failing industries and unleash hope for a brighter economic future. Yes, it's written in exactly that kind of breathless hyperbole. Very enjoyable... and very juvenile.

Entrepreneurship will play a key part in our collective economic future, but it will be the entrepreneurship of 'System D'. That's the name for the shadow or informal economy that grows up through the cracks of a post-bubble age of excess (or failed state). And in fairness to the RSA, they have published another report recently on how to more effectively tap the growth potential of the informal economy. It's a somewhat more sensible - and useful - read than the other report.

So my advice to anyone who wants to start up their own business in Ireland - and hasn't done so before - is: if you really have no other option to secure the financial well-being of your family then go ahead. And good luck...

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Quote of the Weekend

From Peter Boone and Simon Johnson's essay on why the crisis in Europe is ahead of us, not behind:
Those whom the gods would destroy, they first encourage to borrow cheaply.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Later Retirement

Two unsustainable trends for the price of one - this time from the UK. The chart shows a) the share of public sector contributors to occupational pension schemes as a proportion of all contributors; and b) the share of all members of schemes who are contributing (the rest are receiving pensions from the scheme)...

Somehow I don't think the picture is much different for Ireland.

ht Dick Stroud

Monday, September 17, 2012

QE for the People

There's a fascinating, wide ranging interview with Australian economist Steve Keen over at From Alpha to Omega, a podcast series produced by Irishman Tom O'Brien. The interview took place before Bernanke's decision to go for QE Infinity last week.

Steve had previously set out his thoughts on the need for Quantitative Easing for the Public on his blog earlier in the summer. As he rightly observes, QE - as practiced in the United States, UK and even the eurozone - is effectively a transfer of assets to the rich. Especially the ones who got us into this mess in the first place. Even the Tory-leaning Spectator magazine calls QE the ultimate subsidy to the rich.

Steve keeps pointing the finger at the problem that won't go away: debt. Especially private debt (the type that has always creates the biggest economic problems throughout history). One of his solutions (among many innovative ideas) is to give everybody in the country a lump sum of, say, €10,000 or equivalent - printed out of thin air the way you can with fiat currencies - which can only be used to pay off private debts. His idea is a bit more considered than that, but you can see what he means by QE for the public. Rather than for the banks.

Of course here in Ireland we have a big problem - two actually: 1) we're in the eurozone and so can't actually print as many euro as we wish; and 2) our level of private debt is spectacularly off-the-historical scale when it comes to the amount we owe. €10,000 ain't going to hack it...

Which means that in Ireland we will need two parallel solutions in place: 1) an alternative currency that can circulate in parallel to the euro and be used for real world economic activities (my earlier thoughts here, more to follow in another post); and 2) a debt jubilee whereby billions of euro in private debts are simply written off and we start again.

In the meantime, the bankers will keep getting their QE fixes...

 ht The Big Picture

Data Visualisation of the Day

In a word, awesome:

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Weekend Thought Experiment

Robert Gordon's essay on the West's restricted growth prospects (I reviewed it here) is now available in an ungated version. In it he conducts an interesting thought experiment - contrasting an older industrial revolution (IR2) with a more recent one (IR3) - to give us a better sense of the innovations that have really made a difference to our lives:
A thought experiment helps to illustrate the fundamental importance of the inventions of IR2 compared to the subset of IR3 inventions that have occurred since 2002. You are required to make a choice between option A and option B. With option A you are allowed to keep 2002 electronic technology, including your Windows98 laptop accessing Amazon, and you can keep running water and indoor toilets; but you can’t use anything invented since 2002.
Option B is that you get everything invented inthe past decade right up to Facebook, Twitter, and the iPad, but you have to give up running water and indoor toilets. You have to haul the water into your dwelling and carry out the waste. Even at 3am on a rainy night, your only toilet option isa wet and perhaps muddy walk to the outhouse. Which option do you choose?
I have posed this imaginary choice to several audiences in speeches, and the usual reaction is a guffaw, a chuckle, because the preference for option A is so obvious. The audience realises that it has been trapped into recognition that just one of the many late 19th century inventions is more important than the portable electronic devices of the past decade on which they have become so dependent.

Sort of puts the iPhone 5 in perspective.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Ignorance Is Bliss

And it's getting 'blisser'. Interest in science in Ireland is declining, and is already well below the EU average. That's according to today's Eurobarometer report on 'Robots':

Indeed, we can lay claim to the 'bronze medal' for scientific ignorance in Europe: we come third (after Portugal, then Malta) for the percentage of the population who are 'not at all interested' in science. And what's really worrying is that older Irish teenagers show about half the level of interest in science as their EU counterparts.

And no, it's not down to religious education...

Thursday, September 13, 2012

This Is Going To Take A While

Another reason why this recession is different: men are leaving the workforce like never before. In the United States the labour force participation rate is the lowest on record, as the chart below shows:

We have a similar situation in Ireland, especially for 20-24 year old men as the next chart shows:

This also means that the recovery will be different: there mightn't be one. At least not any time soon. Again in the United States there has been a significant jump in the percentage of Americans who consider themselves to belong to the lower or lower middle classes. The biggest jumps have been for men and for 18-29 year olds. On every indicator those who self identify as belonging to the lower classes are experiencing more hardship, face greater financial difficulties and are less optimistic about the future. I suspect something similar is happening to Irish youth, especially young men, as well.

Why does it matter for our recovery prospects? Simply put, men want jobs while women want the option of jobs. A recent Gallup survey illustrates the point: twice as many women as men would prefer - if they were free to do so - 'to stay at home and take care of the house and family', including 40% of women in employment:

Such a freely chosen option for women - especially those with young children - simply won't be available with men increasingly excluded from the workforce: already, there are 126 women for every 100 men in Irish universities and the ratio is getting worse.

Without men getting the jobs, earning the incomes and paying the taxes that will signal real economic growth then the recovery will be anaemic at best. Or postponed indefinitely.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Feminist Creationism

Creationism is alive and well in our universities. But don't worry, it isn't the DUP variety that should concern us, rather it is that variety unique to contemporary feminism. Academic feminists effectively deny the role of evolution, genes and DNA in gender differences. Gender is a social construct apparently, and to think otherwise is to do the Patriarchy's evil work.

But those of us living in the reality-based community are beginning to notice the glaring disconnect between feminist ideology and, well, reality. Despite more than half a century of dominating the social, political and economic agendas of the developed world, gender feminists are not happy with the way things are going. So now they want to go further - to rid the world of gender all together. The plan is set out in a fascinating paper by three academic feminists entitled A World Beyond Gender presented at the recent Real Utopias conference. The writers set out an agenda for ridding the world once and for all of gender in order to breakdown the continuing inequalities they attribute to gender's malignant influence. Among some of their (milder) ideas is the following for motherhood:
Cultural beliefs about motherhood itself (Hays 1998, Warner 2006) must also change. We
now have a society where women have fewer children than ever before and believe that each one needs intensive mothering.  As Macdonald (2011) argues, as long as women, even elite employed women, hold the ideological belief that every childhood moment must be intensively cultivated and controlled by mother herself, structural changes to create an earner-caregiver model for society are bound to fail. Visions of utopia must involve a view of nurturing that is collective and involves the whole village, and is not entirely individualist and private.
I recommend reading the whole paper, it's as bracing as a Calvinist sermon on the Last Judgement. Though reading the paper I couldn't help feeling that we are witnessing not the next wave of feminism, but rather are witnessing the age of what some are calling Peak Feminism, which I've noted myself before, and which will lead to a very different future to that envisaged by gender utopians.

Indeed, some academics are beginning to challenge the feminist creationists in their midst by pointing out that evolutionary psychology explains a great deal about the different ambitions, needs and behaviours of men and women. The theory of evolution itself is evolving (witness recent insights in relation to the role of epi-genetics), but it is unlikely that it will make the case for feminist creationism more credible - or for the DUP variety either, come to think of it.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Hobbesian Choice

George Weigel puts a philosophical spin on the forthcoming US presidential election - it isn't so much Romney vs Obama as Burke vs Hobbes:
For as the candidates have presented themselves to the country over the past months, and most recently at their conventions, it has become ever more clear that America will choose in 2012 between two paths into the future. Along one path, there is, finally, room for only the individual and the state [Hobbes]. Along the other path, the flourishing institutions of civil society empower individuals and contribute to real problem-solving [Burke]. In the former, the state defines responsibilities and awards benefits (and penalties). In the latter, individuals and free, voluntary associations assume responsibility and thereby thus make their contribution to the common good.
Burke is one of our least celebrated Irish heros, but that's probably because Irish politicians are all Hobbesians nowadays.

(By the way, I'm not convinced Romney is a Burkean either for that matter).

Monday, September 3, 2012

The Wisdom of Cowards

Okay, that's a bit unkind. More like 'the wisdom of CEOs and managing directors across Europe and Japan who think the euro can is about to be kicked over a cliff':

From a fascinating but scary study by Roland Berger.

But don't worry, a third of European businesses have already made contingency arrangements for the collapse of the euro. The other two thirds are crossing their fingers...

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Infographic of the weekend - via

The difference between the United Kingdom, Great Britain and England

by Twilko. Learn about data visualization software.

Quote of the Weekend

Via Chris Martenson's Peak Prosperity:
"If you’re rich you get a bailout. If you’re poor you get a handout. And if you’re middle class you get left out. " Keith Fitz-Gerald

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Street Fighter II V

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The King of the Air Force

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The King of the Air Force
After Ryu is knocked unconscious, Ken decides he will go to the military base to find Guile. The oputcome leaves both Ken and Ryu humbled and inspired. They decide to embark on a global training journey to strengthen their skills. The two of them are confident that they are strong, but they now realize there are many other powerful fighters in the world. Ken and Ryu have a lot to learn. From the teeming back streets of Hong Kong to the banks of the Ganges River and the arenas of Barcelona, these two friends are out to unlock the secrets of the Worlds' best fighters in order to complete a martial arts education begun together years before. But their enterprising expedition to the far corners of the Earth exposes them to far more than new combat techniques. Before long their considerable skills attract the attention of some dangerous characters - fearsome villains eager to harness the friends' newfound talents in service to the criminal organization known as "Shadowlaw." Aided by the beautiful and fearsome Chun Li, Ken and Ryu struggle to resist the formidable might of Sagat, the brawn of the towering Zangief, and the talons of the devious Vega as they inch ever closer to the mysterious mastermind behind Shadowlaw. Watch as the ultimate contest of body and mind is decided in the streets in this fan-favorite series based upon the popular video game! Anime veteran Gisaburo Sugii (Street Fighter II: The Movie) reprises his role as director for this furious 29-episode action series available on either four DVD volumes or the special edition box set!moreless

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Wilfred (Australia)

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Adam and Sarah plan to spend some quality time at the beach together while Wilfred plays in the shallows.

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Install Slackware 13.0 on Acer Aspire One AO751h

If you have tried to install Slackware on this netbook…
…you know that default installer doesn’t see the hard disk, because the kernel needs support for Intel US15W chipset :/.
But there’s a workaround for us, we need to insert in the kernel the module that allows chipset work properly.
You have to download the pata_sch.ko module from here, or take it from an installed slackware, or download kernel-modules- package and extract the module.
This is what i’ve done: i’ve put the module in one usb key, i’ve created a bootable usb key with default usbboot.img image and i’ve booted with the hugesmp.s kernel.
Now it’s time for the little trick, mount the key with the module (or you can setup the nic card and download it straight from the web), copy the module and insert it in the kernel:
mount /dev/sdb1 /mnt
cp /mnt/pata_sch.ko .
umount /mnt
insmod pata_sch.ko

Now you can see the disk, enjoy your Slackware on Aspire One a751 :)

Slackware doesn’t see the hard drive during installation because there isn’t pata_sch module. This happen again when you try to boot your new installation.
So, after installation, when you press the EXIT button, do not reboot but chroot inside your installed Slackware, with chroot /mnt
Then create a custom mkinitrd with the pata_sch module built-in, with
mkinitrd -c -k -m ext3:pata_sch -f ext3 -r /dev/sdax
Assuming you’re using ext3 and sdax is the / partition, the module should be present in the installation if you’ve installed kernel-modules-smp-
That’s all.
I’ve installed Slackware in an encrypted LVM volume, following the README_CRYPT.TXT guide, except for the mkinitrd command, i’ve used:
mkinitrd -l it -c -k -m ext3:pata_sch -f ext3 -r /dev/cryptvg/root -C /dev/sdxx -L
And i’ve used GRUB instead of LILO, because i’ve installed the bootloader in the /boot partition instead MBR, where there is Truecrypt bootloader for Windows encrypted partition.
If someone have other tips about Slackware on this netbook, feel free to write a comment, thanks.

6 pensieri riguardo “Install Slackware 13.0 on Acer Aspire One AO751h”

  1. Thanks for your instructions. Have been useful installing Slack 13 in this netbook.

    Have you manage to use the generic kernel instead of huge? Which modules did you add to the initrd?. Besides, did you get a 1366×768 resolution in the X? What did you do?

  2. Nope, i’ve used the huge kernel with that initrd. X gives me one available resolution: 1024×768.
    This is my xrandr output:

    bash-3.1$ xrandr
    Screen 0: minimum 1024 x 768, current 1024 x 768, maximum 1024 x 768
    default connected 1024×768+0+0 0mm x 0mm
    1024×768 61.0*

  3. I think i haven’t understood what you want to do, the modules came from slackware modules package, and it’s build froma vanilla kernel. Why you would take the module from debian’s kernel?

  4. My post was refering to the post before, I thougt it is possible to take the deb source to run the GMA 500 grafic chip and a 1366×768 resolution.

    The psb driver from Ubunut I mean

  5. Not sure if you could do that. Would need their source [obtainable I am sure] but I do not know if they have crowbar’d any third party drivers into the code.

    Rumors are that linux drivers are “close” [check], and then there is ChromeOS that Google has been working with all of the netbook developers on releasing.

    Saw an article about openarena screaming on a gma500 equipped laptop – _much_ faster than what Ubuntu has been able to squeak out [pretty darn fast!].

    Aha! Here is a great posting. Asus has released chucks of linux source for their version of the poulsbo chipset. The guys are tearing it apart to see if the driver source is in there.

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