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Petrobras: oil and natural gas production in October

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Oilfield Technology,

Petrobras has reported that its total oil and natural gas production in October was 2.81 million boe/d, of which 2.68 million boe/d produced in Brazil and 0.12 million boe/d abroad.

Average oil production in the country was 2.19 million bpd, a 2% drop in the company's production compared to September, month in which there was a production record. This output was mainly due to stoppages for maintenance on FPSOs Cidade Anchieta and Capixaba, both at Parque das Baleias, and FPSO Cidade Angra dos Reis, in Lula. The performance achieved so far indicates that Petrobras is moving towards the annual oil production target of 2.145 million bpd in Brazil.

Pre-salt production reaches new daily record

In October, the production of oil and natural gas operated by Petrobras (own and partners’ share) in the pre-salt layer was 1.42 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a reduction of 2.7% in relation to the previous month.

The average production of oil operated by Petrobras in the pre-salt layer was 1.14 million bpd. It is noteworthy that the company and its partners reached a new daily production record in that province by producing a volume of 1.23 million bbls on the 11th day of the month.

Production of natural gas

The production of natural gas in Brazil, excluding the liquefied volume, was 77.5 million m³/day, 4.5% below the previous month, due to the mentioned stoppages.

The average production of natural gas abroad, excluding the liquefied volume, was 9.7 million m³/d, 2.2% higher than in the previous month, mainly due to the return of production after the stoppage, in the month of September, in Hadrian South, in the United States.

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Chess Bookends

Chess Bookends

Stylish and substantial, these aluminium bishop and knight chess figures rest on black wooden bases, and will hold your book collection securely in place on bookshelves, desks or mantles.

Measuring 8cm deep x 15cm wide each and supplied as a set of 2 (which includes one of each chess figure) these weightened bookends will help you to keep your favourite books and novels organised and tidy, and will inject a sense of style and grandeur into any study or living space. A great gift for book lovers who are particularly fond of chess also, these would make a great house-warming or wedding gift also.

We hope you are satisfied with your purchase but if you ever need to return an item, you can do so within 30 days of receipt.

Please note, we cannot offer refunds on perishable goods, pierced jewellery, duvets, pillows, mattresses, underwear or on swimwear if the hygiene seal is not in place or has been broken. Items which are made to order will also be non returnable unless faulty or not as described. Your legal rights are not affected.

Goods can be returned to your nearest Oldrids & Downtown store: Simply take your original despatch note along with the goods you wish to return to the customer collections point between the following times: Mon - Fri 9.30am - 5.00pm, Sat 9.00am - 6.00pm, Sun 10.00am - 5.00pm. Our stores will be more than happy to receive the goods. We have our own dedicated team who will apply the refund to your card thereafter. Funds can take up to 5 working days to reach your account.

Alternatively, tell us about the product you want to return by emailing us at or phoning us on 03452 505502, remembering to include your order number, 10 digit item code and the reason for return and whether you would like a full refund or a replacement.

We recommend that a verifiable method of return delivery is used, as proof of posting cannot be taken as proof of receipt.

For larger items we can organise for a courier to come and collect the product you wish to return and will discuss collection charges with you at the time.

Click here to view our full Returns Policy.

Product Features
  • Gift Type: Home & Garden Gifts

Item Number: 9000726454

Availability: If you plan to collect from store, please check with your chosen store before visiting.

Delivery Options: Click here for details

Note: Currently not available for delivery to remote UK postcodes and Ireland.

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GNOME 3.10 – The 10 Best Features & Changes

Notice: This post is more than a year old. It may be outdated.

GNOME 3.10, the latest version of the popular free and open-source desktop environment, was released earlier today bringing with it new features, apps, bug fixes and interface enhancements.

But that’s all a bit vague sounding, right? You want to know precisely what’s new and worth looking out for.

We hear you – so join us as we run down 10 of the best changes appearing in this sumptuous stable update.

New System Menu

GNOME has always been about making things simple for users, and the revamped ‘System Menu’ in today’s release certainly does that.

The newly-named ‘System  Status Menu’ groups together all of the indicators and applets one would’ve accessed individually – WiFi, Bluetooth, Volume, etc. – into one super-compact über-menu.

By transitioning to a more concise drop-down menu GNOME say several issues with the previous design have now been addressed:

  • Small icons were difficult to aim for with a mouse
  • Screen brightness didn’t warrant its own applet
  • User’s name being visible was a privacy concern
  • Information was split out requiring multiple clicks

The new System Status Menu offers a quick overview of the ‘information you care about’, say developers. Options for WiFi, power, etc. are now hidden out of sight until you need them.

Welcome additions to the menu include a brightness slider, improved airplane mode, and connecting to WiFi networks from the menu is now more coherent.

GTK Client Side Decorations

The most striking visual change in this release is without a doubt the new GNOME ‘Header Bars’.

Header Bars merge titlebars and toolbars into a single element, giving more screen space to window content.

But aside from making more efficient use of screen space, Header Bars are also able to change to display controls and options related to the current view of the app:

Screen Shot 2013-09-24 at 17.30.32

Finally, following GNOME’s controversial decision to drop the minimise button from app windows, the only control left visible is that of the close button.

Software Centre Preview

The first of several app previews in this release is GNOME’s distro-agnostic ‘Software’ store.

I say ‘distro-agnostic’ as, in theory at least, it will use data from the system it’s installed on – in Ubuntu’s case that means you can search for, see, and install the same apps as in the Software Centre.

Though a ‘preview’ – i.e. far from feature complete – it already covers most of the more common software-management activities:

  • Install and remove applications
  • Install software updates
  • Search for applications by name
  • Browse for apps by category

More features are planned over the coming months, including software ratings and application screenshots.

Application Pager

The Activities Overview was rejigged a little in the March stable release, separating out applications into two tabs: ‘Frequent’ and ‘All’.

GNOME 3.10 hones the usability of the ‘All’ section by adding ‘pagination indicators’ to the side of the screen rather than, as before, simply presenting them as an endless list of icons.

It’s a subtle change, admittedly, but it’s one that gives the Activities Overview a cleaner look.

GNOME Music (Preview)

GNOME’s slick new music app isn’t quite ready to take centre stage yet, but is included in 3.10 as a warm-up act.

Compared to Rhythmbox, the ‘default’ music app in GNOME, it is basic on features. You won’t, for example, find crossfading options, scrobbling, or an equaliser, but it does play music and let you browse your library by artist or album using a clean, streamlined interface.

As for the future GNOME say that users can expect integration with online music streaming services and UPnP server access to feature.

Definitely one app to keep an ear to the ground for.

Date and Time

It’s not something you use often but, when you do, you’ll notice that the Date & Time Settings have received some design attention, including the addition of a much bigger time zone map.

You’ll also see that a new option – Automatic Time Zone – appears in the main pane. This uses GNOME’s new geolocation framework debuting in 3.10 and used by the new GNOME Maps app (see below).

GNOME Maps (Preview)

Another app preview shipped in this release is Maps.

I seem to be alone in really liking this app, but it’s the perfect example of an app doing one thing and doing it well – even at this early stage!

With GNOME Maps you can

  • Search locations & attractions by name or phrase
  • Get directions
  • Pin your favourite places
  • See your own location
  • Find local businesses

The application uses OpenStreetMap for data so, if you see something that doesn’t look quite right, you can easily propose additions and amendments.

GNOME Photos (Preview)

Another app preview, this time one that focuses on helping you sift through your photo collection.

It’s not intended to be a full replacement for apps like Shotwell. Rather, GNOME Photos gives a better interface for going through folders full of images than Files (‘Nautilus’) does.

It also boasts online features with Flickr and sharing over UPnP.

High-Res Display Support

Google’s Chromebook Pixel, Apple’s Macbook Pro line, and a smattering of Intel Ultrabooks all have high-resolution displays in common. And ‘common’ is an apt word as more PC manufacturers are set to ship these pixel-dense screens in more devices over the coming year.

GNOME are ahead of the curve and 3.10 sees the first iteration of work on tailoring the GNOME desktop for hi-res monitors.

Get Personal

From 3.10, you’re able to personalise the GNOME desktop in some new ways.

For example, you can set a different background for the lock screen to that of your desktop and, if you have Flickr set up in Online Accounts, you can set a desktop background from one of your uploaded images.


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alexa Minimally invasive aesthetic procedures

OMICS International organises 3000+ Global Conferenceseries Events every year across USA, Europe & Asia with support from 1000 more scientific societies and Publishes 700+ Open Access Journals which contains over 50000 eminent personalities, reputed scientists as editorial board members.

Minimally invasive aesthetic procedures

More and more people between the ages of 35 to 55 years-old nowadays will choose a minimally invasive aesthetic procedure over surgery. Their main motivation is downtime and morbility. Cost is also a consideration. As a surgeon I have realized that a lot of the solutions can be better achieved with minimally invasive procedures rather than surgery. In this lecture I want to share with the audience my experience in this field as many patients want to avoid surgery, and also because some patients that come for consultation with the idea of a facial plastic surgery, are recommended by me to better choose a minimally invasive treatment. I call this a “quick face design”, or “facial sculpture”, in which I mix several procedures at the same time. This produces very fast and pleasant results, minimizing risk, downtime, scars and cost

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alexa Risks of X-Rays

OMICS International organises 3000+ Global Conferenceseries Events every year across USA, Europe & Asia with support from 1000 more scientific societies and Publishes 700+ Open Access Journals which contains over 50000 eminent personalities, reputed scientists as editorial board members.

Risks of X-Rays

Issue effects such as cataracts, skin reddening, and hair loss, which occur at relatively high levels of radiation exposure and are very rare in children. And a small increase in the possibility that a person exposed to X-rays will develop cancer later in life. Radiation-induced cancer risks depend on the radiation dose, the patient's age at exposure, the sex of the patient (women are more radiosensitive than men), and the organ irradiated.

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an explicatory catechism or an explanation of the assemblys shorter catechism

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This scarce antiquarian book is included in our special Legacy Reprint Series. In the interest of creating a more extensive selection of rare historical book reprints, we have chosen to reproduce this title even though it may possibly have occasional imperfections such as missing and blurred pages, missing text, poor pictures, markings, dark backgrounds and other reproduction issues beyond our control. Because this work is culturally important, we have made it available as a part of our commitment to protecting, preserving and promoting the world's literature.
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Birthdays in Film & TV on August 30

  • 1889 Eduardo Ciannelli, Italian actor (Foreign Correspondent, Gunga Din), born in Ischia, Italy (d. 1969)
  • 1896 Raymond Massey, Canadian actor (Dr Kildare), born in Toronto, Ontario (d. 1983)

Person of interestShirley Booth

1898 Shirley Booth, American actress (Hazel), born in NYC, New York (d. 1992)

Actress Shirley Booth
Shirley Booth
  • 1906 [Rose] Joan Blondell, American actress (Grease, The Blue Veil), born in NYC, New York (d. 1979)
  • 1908 Fred MacMurray, American actor (Double Indemnity, The Apartment, My Three Sons), born in Kankakee, Illinois (d. 1991)
  • 1910 Donald Bisset, British children book writer, illustrator (Upside Down Stories) and actor (Battle of the Sexes), born in Brentford, Middlesex, England (d. 1995)
  • 1914 Julie Bishop [Jacqueline Wells], American actress (My Hero, Northern Pursuit, Threat), born in Denver, Colorado (d. 2001)
  • 1925 Julien Schoenaerts, Flemish actor (Daens/Medea)
  • 1927 Bill Daily, American actor and comedian (I Dream of Jeannie, The Bob Newhart Show), born in Des Moines, Iowa
  • 1934 Eric Schneider, Dutch actor (Drop Out, Family, Flanagan)
  • 1938 Steve Delaney, newscaster (Monitor), born in Dobbs Ferry, New York
  • 1939 Elizabeth Ashley, [Cole], Ocala Florida, actress (Coma, Evening Shade)
  • 1939 John Peel, English DJ and Broadcaster (BBC Radio 1), born in Heswell, Merseyside (d. 2004)
  • 1941 Sue MacGregor, BBC-radio hostess
  • 1941 Ben Jones, American actor and politician
  • 1944 Freek de Jonge, Dutch comedian (Neerlands Hoop)
  • 1944 Molly Ivins, American political humorist (d. 2007)
  • 1946 Peggy Lipton [Margaret Ann], American actress (The Mod Squad, Twin Peaks), born in NYC, New York
  • 1948 Lewis Black, American comedian
  • 1949 Christopher Collins, American actor and comedian (d. 1994)
  • 1951 Dana, singer/actress (Flight of the Doves)
  • 1951 Timothy Bottoms, actor (Paper Chase, East of Eden), born in Santa Barbara, California
  • 1954 David Paymer, actor (Love Mary, Mr Saturday Night)
  • 1956 Jayne Irving, English TV hostess (Live at 3)
  • 1959 Mark 'Jacko' Jackson, Australian rules footballer and actor
  • 1960 Guy A. Lepage, Quebec humorist, television host and producer
  • 1963 Michael Chiklis, American actor (Commish, The Shield), born in Lowell, Massachusetts
  • 1964 Joan Bennett, playmate (January, 1985), born in Chicago, Illinois
  • 1966 Michael Michele, Evansville In, actress (Nikki-Central Park West)
  • 1967 Frederique [Van derWal], Netherlands, model (Victoria Secrets)

Person of interestCameron Diaz

1972 Cameron Diaz, American actress (Shrek, The Mask, My Best Friend's Wedding), born in Long Beach, California

Actress Cameron Diaz
Cameron Diaz
  • 1976 Sarah-Jane Potts, English actress
  • 1977 Elden Henson, American actor
  • 1979 Leon Lopez, British actor
  • 1979 Niki Chow, Hong Kong actress and singer
  • 1979 Tavia Yeung, Hong Kong actress
  • 1983 Jun Matsumoto, Japanese singer and actor


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Amerika's Future is Death

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Cross-posted from Paul Craig Roberts

"The day we see truth and do not speak is the day we begin to die."
- Martin Luther King

Conspiracy theories have now blossomed into what the smug presstitute media calls a "conspiracy culture." According to the presstitutes, Americans have to find some explanation for their frustrations and failings, so Americans shift the blame to the Bilderbergers, the Rothschilds, the New World Order and so forth and so on.

Readers will not be surprised that I disagree with the presstitutes. Indeed, the conspiracy culture is the product of the presstitute media's failure to investigate and to report truthfully. I am certain that the Western media is worse than the Soviet media was. The Soviet media devised ways for helping the public to read between the lines, whereas the Western media is so proud to be confidants of the government that they deliver the propaganda without any clues to the readers that it is propaganda.

Americans have been fed lies by "their" government and the government's presstitute media for so long that it is not surprising that Americans increasingly believe that there is a conspiracy operating against them. Millions of Americans have been evicted from their jobs, careers, and homes while the crooks who stole from them run free and bankroll the presidential candidates. The world as millions of Americans knew it has come to an end, and no one has been held accountable. The explanation that Americans get from the media is that it is their own fault. They bought houses they shouldn't have bought, and they didn't train for the right jobs. It is not unreasonable for Americans to conclude that a conspiracy is operating against them.

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Americans are told that "their" government cannot afford to help them because of the budget deficit and the burden on our grandchildren. But Americans see the trillions of dollars that are lavished on banksters, on wars, and on Homeland Security. Why is a police state and another attack on another Muslim country more important than keeping Americans in their jobs and in their homes?

The 11th anniversary of 9/11 is less than a month away. Will the presstitute media remind Americans that the government has spent $6 trillion of Americans' money in out-of-pocket and already incurred future costs as the expense of invading and trying to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, all to no effect except to enrich the managements and shareholders of the military security complex at the cost of destroying the reputation of the United States and putting Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block?

No, of course not. The spiel will be about our brave troops who are fighting and dying to make the world safe for democracy and women's rights. Washington will wrap itself in the flag and exhort Americans to "support our troops" in the orchestrated war of the day. Hitlery Clinton still gets on the moral high horse and rails at China and Russia, but all the world sees is hypocrisy. No one, not even Washington's puppet governments, any longer takes Washington's moralizing as anything more than a mask for domination by force alone. Democracy, Washington declares, comes out of the barrel of a gun.

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Today moralizing is all about money, but not for the 99%. The 99% cannot find good jobs or earn anything on their savings, because the economy is run for the 1%. University graduates cannot get jobs and pay off their student loans. Retraining for the millions of Americans whose jobs were shipped offshore or filled by foreigners brought in on H1-B visas has proved to be a fraud, as there are no jobs for the retrained displaced long-term discouraged American work force. The official jobs projection by the US government is that few university graduates are needed in the work force, so the old mantra that "education is the answer" is just another lie from the Ivy League economic departments who sell the establishment's lies for money.

Any American citizen accustomed to travel America's "wide open spaces" prior to 9/11 must be astonished by the sudden rise of the intrusive Homeland Security, a gestapo-sounding name if there ever was one. Porno-scans and genital feel-ups have spread from airports to bus and train stations and to the public highways, despite the absence of terrorist events. No one in their right mind could possibly think that a 90-year old grandmother in a wheel chair is a terrorist whose diaper needs to be checked or that blond, blue-eyed parents would have strapped a bomb around their 5-year old daughter's waist. No one except the gestapo Department of Homeland Security.

Even some of the gullible flag-waving patriotic conservatives are beginning to wonder about all the security. The reports that the Department of Homeland Security has ordered 750 million rounds of people-killing ammunition are puzzling even those conservatives who have been taking vicarious pleasure in the slaughter of "towelheads."

Why does the Department of Homeland Security need enough ammunition to shoot every American 2.5 times? Why is Homeland Security equipping itself with full-body armor? Why is Homeland Security acquiring new laser technology that can "instantly know everything about you from 164 feet away?" A new army manual for "Civil Disturbance Operations" describes how the military is to be used domestically within the US to put down protests, confiscate firearms and kill citizens.

The police state that is being constructed in "freedom and democracy" America is without parallel in history. When the only terrorists are dupes organized by the FBI, it is clear that the purpose of the police state is not to protect Americans from Muslim terrorists. The purpose of the police state is to terrorize US citizens.

It is not only Homeland Security that is being militarized. The government reported that a large ammunition order was made by the National Weather Service, later updated to have been the Fisheries Office. If you are surprised at this, why has the Social Security Administration ordered 174,000 rounds of hollow-point bullets?

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Lists of Homeland Security's ammunition order are available online. Clearly, it is not ammunition for target practice. It is ammunition for killing people: hollow-point bullets for the military rifle, the M-16. Match grade bullets for .308 sniper rifles. 12 gauge shotgun buckshot and slug ammunition. Hollow-point bullets for .357 magnum and .40 caliber pistols.

As there have been no terrorist attacks in the US since the 9/11 attack (itself suspect by experts), except for those organized by the FBI, this massive purchase of firepower is obviously not to protect Americans from Muslim terrorists. So what is it for?

Perhaps this film explains what is in store for the American people who trusted "their" government. War protestors and critics of the government are being redefined as "domestic extremists" who can be arrested for aiding and abetting the enemies of the United States. If Americans wake up to the fact that they are being dispossessed economically, politically, and socially, while Washington is leading them into World War III, and take to the streets in protest, they will encounter extreme military force.

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Dr. Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for Economic Policy in the Reagan Administration. He was associate editor and columnist with the Wall Street Journal, columnist for Business Week and the Scripps Howard News Service. He is a contributing editor to Gerald Celente's Trends Journal. He has had numerous university appointments. His books, The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West is available (more...)

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National Abortion Rate at Lowest Level Since 1973, According to New Study

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The country’s abortion rate has reached a new low since 1973, according to the results of a study released last week by the Guttmacher Institute. Peaking in 1981, abortions have dropped significantly in recent years, falling 13 percent from 2008 to 2011.

The number of abortions plateaued from 2005 to 2008, according to the study, and then began to drop. Researchers attribute the decline to better birth control methods, such as intrauterine devices, that don’t have the same risk of error as condoms or daily birth control pills.

"A 13 percent drop over a three-year time period is a pretty steep decline. It's unusual," the study’s lead author, Rachel Jones, told USA Today.

In 2011, there were 16.9 abortions per 1,000 women, compared to 29.3 per 1,000 in 1981.

Economist Ted Joyce, who studies reproductive health at Baruch College in New York, says that the country’s unstable economy is also a significant contributing factor.

"Births have been falling for a while, and the recession certainly accelerated the decrease in births," Joyce said. "When you consider the changes in contraception and the largest recession since the Great Depression, those two factors seem like compelling explanations for the decline.”

Guttmacher doesn’t cite stricter abortion laws as contributors, since most of those were put into place in 2011 or later.

“We didn't find any clear associations between abortion restrictions and declines in abortion rates," said Jones. "We saw drops in abortions in the states that had restrictions, but they were not substantially bigger than what we saw in other states."

If abortion restrictions are upheld in 22 states limiting access, that may increase the drop.

While the Guttmacher Institute supports a woman’s right to have an abortion, both pro-choice and pro-life advocates greeted the study as a victory. Pro-life groups see their work as having a hand in the reduced abortion rate.

“This is a post-sonogram generation,” Charmaine Yoest, president of Americans United for Life, which supports many of the new state limits on abortions, told the Washington Post. “There is increased awareness throughout our culture of the moral weight of the unborn baby. And that’s a good thing.”

In addition to the significant decline in abortions, the study found an increased proportion of early medication abortions by means of the abortion pill. Nearly one in four abortions were induced using the drug in 2011.

Sources: USA TodayWashington Post

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New York Knicks J.R. Smith Fined for Repeatedly Untying Opponents' Shoelaces (Video)

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New York Knicks guard J.R. Smith was recently fined $50,000 by the NBA for "recurring instances of unsportsmanlike conduct."

The "unsportsmanlike conduct" first happened on Sunday when Smith tried to untie Dallas Mavericks forward Shawn Marion's sneaker, noted the Associated Press (video below).

“I’ve always said I don’t condone things that I know you shouldn’t do and, no, I’m not happy about this, because, again, he was warned, he comes back and he makes the same mistake, and it’s not right,” New York Knicks coach Mike Woodson told ESPN New York.

“I’m going to address it tomorrow when he comes in here for work, because it’s unacceptable. I mean, it really is. I mean, it’s unprofessional," added Woodson. "That’s the only word I can use, or two words. It’s just, you can’t do that. You just cannot do that.”

Smith also tried to untie the shoe of Detroit Pistons Greg Monroe during a free throw attempt on Tuesday and was hit with the whopping $50K fine (video below).

The Knicks player was also fined $25,000 in November 2013 for using bad language toward the Detroit Pistons Brandon Jennings on Twitter.

According to Sporting News, Smith has bragged on Twitter about untying opponents' shoes:

Yea I do it every game! RT @bwolfe_22: @TheRealJRSmith I seen you untie Dwights shoe against the rockets too! Haha didn't you?

Sources: Associated Press, Sporting NewsTwitter

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With four trading days left before the August 2nd deadline to extend the U.S. debt ceiling expires, things are getting worse, not better for stocks as the specter of a credit rating downgrade for Uncle Sam is suffocating equities. Sentiment was so bearish today that not even gold could muster a positive close, though its tiny loss was far better than the losses of more than 2% suffered by S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 were also harshly kicked around today.

Stats Table

In economic news, the big report of the day came courtesy of the Commerce Department, which said June durable goods orders slumped 2.1% after a revised 1.9% jump in May. Excluding automobiles and planes, durable goods rose 0.1% last month compared with 0.7% increase in May. For those looking for a silver lining, it should be noted durable goods orders were up 4.7% through the first half of this year. Add to that durable goods prices are higher on an annual basis, which some economists would argue indicates more growth ahead.

That theory would conflict with the recent downward revisions to the U.S. GDP forecast by a host of banks and economic agencies and it can surely be said that the debt ceiling debate on Capitol Hill is not a positive for economic growth.

Durable Goods Chart

Speaking of economic growth, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey said U.S. economic activity continued to grow last month, but the pace of that growth slowed in eight of the 12 regions the survey covers. Just four regions showed slower growth in the previous Beige Book update. This puts the Fed in a pickle to some degree. As some analysts and economists have been noting, the economy is not weak enough to justify a third round of quantitative easing. Unfortunately, it is not strong enough for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to say outright that there will be no more QE packages in our future.

The Beige Book survey indicated consumer spending grew modestly in most regions, but auto sales tailed off a bit. Friday's second-quarter GDP report, the first look at U.S. economic growth for the previous quarter, is expected to show an anemic increase of 1.8%, the slowest pace in a year, according to Bloomberg News.

Adding to the market's woes today were more international issues, and yes, some came by way of Greece, but I am referring to Brazil. The ''B'' in the BRIC quartet and the largest economy in Latin America was once an emerging markets superstar and it may be again one day. That is not the case in the here and now.

Perhaps even more than its largest trading partner, China, Brazil has been bitten hard by the inflation bug and the country's central bank has engaged in a scorched-earth interest rate increase cycle this year. Brazil's central bank has hiked rates eight times in the past 15 months, but that is not helping dampen inflation there. Policymakers in Brazil seem to think the annual inflation target of 4.5% will not be exceeded this year, but economists are forecasting higher inflation next year.

Brazil's recent inflation picture is not pretty, as the chart below indicates. Nor is the impact this issue has had on Brazilian equities. With Wednesday's tumble, Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index has slid 20% from its November peak. That is a bear market.

Brazil Inflation Chart

Lack of enthusiasm by the consumer when it comes to buying discretionary items such as high-end TVs is weighing on myriad stocks. Today, the obvious candidate was Corning (GLW), the maker of glass for pricey LCD TVs. Echoing sentiments made by Dow component MMM earlier this week, New York-based Corning warned of weakness in the LCD market and said TV makers are not exactly thrilled about the prospects the holiday season will bring.

Corning lowered its forecast for worldwide glass demand to between 3.3 billion and 3.4 billion square feet this year from 3.5 billion to 3.7 billion square feet, Reuters reported. Shares of Corning plunged more than 7% on volume that was more than triple the daily average.

Corning Chart

We are now far enough along into the second-quarter earnings season that it is safe to say those reports have been, for the most part, pretty good, but that was expected and in the face of the debt ceiling debate, ''good'' is not good enough. Even big oil stocks are not getting much love this week. Such is life for ConocoPhillips (COP), the third-largest U.S. oil company.

Houston-based Conoco, which recently announced plans to spin-off its downstream operations into a separate company next year, posted a second-quarter profit of $3.4 billion, or $2.41 a share, compared with $4.16 billion, or $2.77, a year earlier. Asset sales helped the figure in the year-earlier period. Analysts were expecting a profit of $2.19 a share and Conoco's exploration and production profit of $2.5 billion also topped the $2.4 billion Wall Street forecast.

Production fell to 1.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter from 1.73 million barrels per day in the second quarter and those declines were attributable to asset sales and lost production in Libya. Conoco forecast 2011 production of 1.625-1.65 million barrels per day. Rival Exxon Mobil (XOM), the largest U.S. oil company, reports tomorrow before the bell and Chevron (CVX), the second-largest U.S. oil company, chimes in on Friday. For more news and commentary on the energy sector, register for a free trial of the OilSlick daily newsletter (HERE).

ConocoPhillips Chart

After the bell today Visa said its fiscal third-quarter profit jumped 40% to $1.5 billion, or $1.43 a share. On an adjusted basis, the company earned $883 million, or $1.26 a share, as revenue climbed 14% to $2.32 billion. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.23 on revenue of $2.3 billion. International growth was the big driver of Visa's solid results. Credit card and debit card volume rose 25% and 27%, respectively, outside of the U.S., Visa said.

Visa and rival Mastercard (MA) need to grow international revenue in an effort to offset lost profits from the Federal Reserve's plan to cap fees on debit card transactions in the U.S. The Fed capped the fees banks collect from merchants for processing debit purchases at an average of 24 cents, down from the current average of 44 cents starting Oct. 1, according to the Associated Press.

Visa also gave bullish fiscal 2012 guidance, projecting single-to-low double-digit revenue growth and mid-to high-teens EPS growth. Even with that, shares of Visa were only moderately higher in the after-hours session.

Visa Chart

Looking at the charts, the S&P 500 had been holding up pretty well until today. Round number support at 1300 held, but the 2% drop took the index below its 50-day moving average, violating support around 1315 in the process. If 1300 does not hold, a return to 1260 may be in the cards. Above 1315, resistance lies in the 1330-1340 area.

S&P 500 Chart

The Dow is in similar trouble as just two components, BA and T, managed to close higher today. Support at 12,400 did not hold and as was the case with the S&P 500, the 50-day line has been broken. From here, there is a plenty of real estate for the Dow to cascade back to 12,000. Below there, we could be discussing 11,750-11,850. The Dow faces two near-term problems. First, earnings from XOM and CVX may not be enough to get the index headed back in the right direction. Second, old support at 12,400 may now be new resistance.

Dow Chart

A decent post-earnings performance from AMZN did nothing to help the Nasdaq. In fact, the index is now a mess after blowing past at 2830 and psychological support at 2800. Drop another 10 points and the Nasdaq will be at its 50-day moving average. From there, 2725 and then 2700 are next support. Now the Nasdaq must retake resistance at 2800 and then again at 2840 before addressing an even more firm ceiling at 2860.

Nasdaq Chart

It took the Russell 2000 less than a month to rally from the 770 area to 860, nearly challenging the May peak of 868.57. In a comparable amount of time, the index has fallen back to 800. If the Russell does not find support here, it should return to 780 and perhaps back to 770.

Russell Chart

Any hopes for a legitimate third-quarter rally have suffered a setback this week. Unfortunately, whether the setback is temporary or longer-lasting is a fate that will be decided by the folks on Capitol Hill. The Treasury Department reiterated that August 2nd is a hard and fast deadline, news that could pressure stocks the rest of this week. That may also be enough to motivate politicians to finally reach a debt ceiling accord over the weekend, setting stocks up for a rally to start August. Keene will be back with you next week.


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I have to admit that after reading Apple's results, and seeing the state of Apple's share value when I got up this morning, I was a little worried about my bullish outlook on the markets. Apple's sharp drop to a 12 month low was nothing short of shocking. The stock has been in bear market territory for a two month now and last weeks early calls for a bottom had me thinking that just might be the case, but more on Apple later. The futures trading was not as I would have expected, with the mega drop in Apples shares. The tech sector and Nasdaq indexes did post some big losses but the broader S&P 500 and the Blue Chip Dow were basically flat and positive respectively.

Economic data in the form of flash PMI from Europe and Asia helped to relieve fears of further global weakness. Shares in both regions regained early losses and closed in the green. Adding to the hopes that the world recovery is still on track, and possibly gaining a wee bit of momentum was our own economic releases. Drops in unemployment claims have reached a new 5 year low and may be indicating a shift in the employment scene. Oil and energy prices trended higher today on the back of the positive data.

Earnings season continued to wear on today as well with close to 200 corporations reporting. The calendar was dominated once again by the financial sector with dozens of small regional operators providing results. Despite the bias toward the financials the day was dominated by well known big name stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Starbucks and Netflix. The reports are tending to be taken in a positive light and helped the the major indexes push on to new highs with the Nasdaq the one exception

The US Data

Today we got a new reading on Leading Indicators. I always think this is a funny indicator because it is last months reading. As an actual leading indicator I don't put much faith in it; as a look at the current month it is OK. In any case, the December reading of the Leading Indicators Index posted a gain of 0.5%. This is nearly a 3/4 point increase from the November reading of -0.2 and an indication that the start of 2013 saw an increase in GDP. However, looking back over the last half year there are as many contractions in the LDI as there are expansions though it does seem as if the bias is to the upside.

On the unemployment front initial claims for unemployment fell to a new 5 year low for the second week in a row. Initial claims fell from 5,000 from last weeks unrevised number and 35,000 from last years period to 330,000. The expectations were for a jump to 360,000. These numbers are still reflecting the heavy adjustments due to the holiday season and should be taken with a note of caution. The four week moving average also fell this week. The average dropped 8,250 to 351,750 and set a near five year low of its own. The last two weeks of declines may be indicating a shift in the unemployment scene or it may simply be seasonal volatility. Any lingering impact that could be associated with Hurricane Sandy and post holiday lay offs may be wearing off. It is also possible that hiring plans paused in the pre-Fiscal Cliff period may have been turned back on. The biggest drops in initial claims were in New York, Georgia, North Carolina and Alabama. If you recall from last week, these were among the states listed as having the biggest gains in claims. The biggest gains this week were in Texas, California and Florida. These states cited losses in service, retail, construction and maintenance jobs.

The downward trend in initial claims is transcribing itself into the continuing and total claims. Continuing claims dropped by 71,000 to 3.16 million from a revised 3.228 million. This is very nearly the second lowest number of continuing claims in several years and only about 30,000 above the low set two weeks ago. This table is showing an ongoing down trend in claims as well, even discounting the volatility present over the last four weeks. This should be seen in the current month's unemployment figures released next Friday.

Total claims fell by 214,000 to 5.66 but remains well above this years low and the above the elevated levels we saw in December. This is the only metric in unemployment that looks as if the trend has reversed. We need to keep in mind though that this number lags the initial claims by two weeks, making it three weeks old today. This could just be a spike related to Hurricane Sandy, Fiscal Cliff issues and the Holiday season. If so, it should continue to tick down in the coming weeks. Total claims may have increased importance next week because of this and the fact that we will also get Challenger, ADP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment and 4th Quarter GDP figures.

Around The World

The IMF has released a new estimate for 2013 world GDP. The estimate is down 0.1% from the previous 3.5% to 3.4%. They also estimated a 4.1% world GDP for 2014 based on expected improvement in Europe. This is marked improvement from 2012's 3.2% but hinges on continuing improvements in China and Europe.

European shares started the day in negative territory on the heels of Apple's overnight drop. Economic data from the region, coupled with news from China and our own data helped to lift shared into the close. Indexes in the UK, France and Germany all made minimum gains of 0.5%. What spurred the rally today was flash PMI data. The number, though still below the expansionary 50 level did make an improvement of nearly a full point to hit 48.2. Germany was the shining star of the group and posted numbers signifying an acceleration of expansion. The German PMI was reported as 53.6, up the previous report of 50.6. Other stories from the region included a planned September stress test for Eurozone banks and a defense of austerity plans from the UK.

The Euro traded to the upside today versus the dollar, nearly reaching the top of the two week range. The pair is in bullish mode and appears to be waving a flag at us, move signal supported by bullish indicator. I am maintaining my previous upside target of 3.5000 and adding a secondary upside target of 3.675. I derived this target by adding the height of the flagpole, which begins at the 1.3000 level, to today's price. An impending increase in US debt and continuing fiscal improvement in Europe should help to drive this trade.

Eur/USD daily

Asian shared ended mixed today despite a two year high in the flash PMI reading. The reading, 51.9, is expansionary and helps support the idea that the Chinese recovery is on track. On the downside, there is increasing chatter about the possibilities of further weakness in the region associated with housing and industrial production. The Nikkei was the strongest index in the region today, driven in part by the strong Chinese data and a volatile yen trade.

The USD/YEN has entered a period of high volatility. Price targets for the yen, inflation targets from the BOJ and a lack of increased stimulus are all having their affects. The yen trade rebounded today from near term support but was halted at long term resistance. Indicators are still bullish but the trade is definitely in a period of consolidation and will need to break above 90 to confirm this stance. The pair has been in this range for two weeks, ever since it first approached 90. A price pattern is forming but which one is unclear to me at this time. The longer term charts are very bullish but peaking and also suggesting a pause in the trend. If a breakout occurs this trade has long term targets of 95 and 100. Shorter term, support exists around 88.50,88 and 87.50.

USD/Yen daily

The Oil Index

Light Crude and Brent both traded to the upside today. Global GDP expectations, Chinese and European PMI as well as the positive US data helped lend support to the trade. At the same supply concerns in the US were alleviated somewhat with a unexpectedly large build in crude oil. Oil has been trending up for about 7 weeks and broke above the short and long term resistance of $95 a barrel just last week. The Oil Index has broken out of its multi-year, narrowing, trading range on the back of this uptrend in oil prices. ON the long term charts the index is bullish and is making a new high but it still faces long term resistance. Continuing signs of global improvement could help to increase oil demand outlook and support higher prices for the underlying commodity and the index itself.

Oil Index weekly

The Gold Index

Gold experienced some selling today and shed about 1%. This is the second drop from the $1700 level and has caused some of the pundits to speculate more technical selling is on the way. The potential for long term holders of gold to get out and redeploy their cash in other markets is present. If there is no expectation for gold to increase in price then there is no expectation to profit on it as an investment. The gold index is echoing this sentiment and dropping below its support lines. The index dropped below an up trend line to reach the long term support around 176. The technicals are bearish and suggest a drop below support could be on the way.

Gold Index daily

Earnings And Apple

The earnings calendar today, and this week, was very full. There were over 180 corporations reporting today alone. Tomorrow is light for reports considering the time of year but holds a couple of key reports. Next week the calendar is full again with even more companies reporting than this week. Tomorrow be on the look out for earnings from the likes Halliburton, Honeywell and Proctor&Gamble. As for today, aside from Apple, important releases on the list included Netflix, Union Pacific, Starbucks and Microsoft. The last two reporting after the bell. Netflix was able to post a stellar quarter and gave investors plenty of reason to drive the stock up over 40% on high volume. The online movie streamer and mail order video provider improved sales over the holiday and has gained new subscribers for its streaming services. Growth of subscribers is being linked to iPad and other tablets who provide a perfect platform for utilizing the service. Netflix posted EPS of $0.13 versus an expected loss of -$0.13. Today's jump opened quite a large gap in the price action so caution and time are needed to determine the best trade at this level.

Netflix daily

Union Pacific, the nations largest railroad operator, posted EPS of $2.19 and beat expectations. This is a 4% rise in profits and a record quarter for the company. 2012 was also a record year. Despite the improvement and earnings beat the stock still traded to the downside. High volume and a bearish engulfing pattern appeared on the chart today and may be signaling a time for long term investors in the stock to take profits. In the report a strong portfolio of customers plus increased pricing helped to achieve the gains despite weakness in the coal and grain markets. That weakness could be the cause for today's bearish price action.

Union Pacific daily

Starbucks was expected to improve on last quarters earnings of $0.46 and post EPS of $0.57. Judging by the price action today I would say that the markets were expecting a miss, or at least some negative guidance. The stock traded down, losing 0.3%. The actual release posted earnings in line with estimates. The company stands firm on its 2013 guidance which is slightly below estimates. The company also reported that strong sales in China were offsetting other economic issues. The stock trade up in the after hours.

Starbucks daily

Microsoft also reported after the bell. The expectations were for a gain of $0.22 cents over last quarter for an EPS of $0.75. Price action in this stock suggested an expectation of positive results but the move was capped by the resistance of last fall's open window. Actual results were EPS of $0.76 on revenue of $21.46 billion, up from $0.78 per share on revenue of $20.89 billion. Revenue missed estimates and shares fell in the after hours.

Microsoft daily

Apple shares took a beating today after releasing its earnings after the bell yesterday. Despite posting record revenue the company did not meet expectations and failed to inspire confidence with weak guidance. Earnings per share was inline with the general run of expectations but slowing iPhone sales, which account for 56% of revenue, had an impact on overall performance. The company reported sales of iPhones reaching 47.8 million in the quarter, only slightly lower than consensus estimates. The slowing sales and weak guidance caused the stock to drop more than 10% overnight and kept pressure on the stock all day.

We already knew, from a variety of sources, that iPhone sales were on the decline. Sales figures from early in the quarter and the recent reports of a near shut down of parts production are only two of them. Speculation abounds as to whether Apple can reclaim its lost power. One article I read today gives evidence of growing support of the phones and the potential for long term sales and conversions. One fact the article cited was that 20% of iPhone sales in the quarter were users switching from Android, up from 9% in the previous comparable quarter. This, plus the ongoing popularity of iPhone 4's, is leading to new sales of later iPhone editions coming down the pipe. In the statements and conference call Tim Cook said that sales of iPhones 4's remained strong and Verizon said that sales of later models were less than half of all iPhone activations in the quarter. The iPhone is being viewed as an entry vehicle to the iPhone world, one that is expected to lead to future sales for the company. Based on this Apple is still a great long term investment but the near term remains hindered by bear market conditions.

The stock had lost about $60 overnight and that carried through into the start of today's US session. Volumes were incredibly high and, at least in the early part of the day, biased to buyers of the stock. Average daily volume was surpassed in the first 45 minutes of trading and reached twice daily by 2:00 PM. The long term charts show a breakdown of a head and shoulders reversal pattern as well as break below the long term moving average. The stock is oversold at this level and momentum is waning. On the daily charts are painting a similar picture. Today's drop opened a large bearish window and the early rebound was capped at the resistance of the aforesaid up trend line. If buyers don't step in soon this stock could move all the way back down to $400.

Apple daily

The Indexes

The futures trades were mixed this morning, and far better than I would have expected based on the Apple situation. However, the Dow was positive and the S&P was only barely negative. The Nasdaq was the one exception and with good reason. After the opening the markets were able to push higher and the S&P was even able to make a new intraday high. The Nasdaq regained most of its 20 point opening loss and barely made it into positive territory before falling back under the pressure of falling Apples. The tech index still above long term support and long term technicals look good for at least a retest of the ten year highs set in September.

Nasdaq daily

The S&P 500 made some small gains today. Buyers and sellers were basically balanced as the markets digested earnings and economic reports. The index turned positive soon after the open, brushed up against the 1500 round number resistance, broke through and made a new high. Later in the day trading turned negative for a time but regained the positive side of yesterday's close before the bell today. The long upper and lower shadows on today's candle are evidence of the markets indecision. Technicals on the daily charts are showing me a market that is overbought with bullish but divergent momentum. This, plus the near term round number resistance and the long legged lead me to think the market is ready for a short breather and possible pullback to support.

S&P 500 daily

The long term charts are bullish. MACD and Stochastic are both bullish and indicating a rising market. MACD is on the rise and stochastic is extremely overbought. A pullback on the daily charts to 1475 would do a lot to alleviate the overbought conditions and allow the index to move higher. On this chart 1500 looks fairly inconsequential so any resistance at this level will likely be short lived, provided the earnings season and economic data don't do an immediate about face. The next likely spot for significant resistance is at the all time highs around 1565.

S&P 500 weekly

The VIX is still at +5 year lows. The markets, at least in the near term, are not too scared. Earnings are OK, there have been some significant misses that have dominated the news but there have been even more earnings beats. The theme this quarter is not the one of rampant â€œupside surprisesâ€ I thought it could be but it has provided some nice, and reassuring, news from the corporate sector. The strength of the businesses, if not the strength of earnings, is what I believe will be driving the markets higher and help the S&P 500 reach a new all time high.

VIX daily

This week we have seen the markets reach new highs. Price action in the major indexes since the first of the year has been impressive and a consolidation is due. Right now it looks like the 1500 level could be the top of the consolidation range. Next week is reason enough for the markets to take a break. The calendar is stacked so full reports and releases that there is no way to put them in a chart or table that would fit in this posting. On the earnings front there are at least as many releases as we got this week, if not more. As for the economy we have another host of reports,around 40, that range from our regular weekly reportings on unemployment claims to monthly reports from Challenger and ADP as well as non farm payrolls, an FOMC rate decision, Q4 advance GDP figures, auto sales and housing.

Tomorrow is rather light. There are about 2 dozen earnings reports and only one economic release, New Home Sales. I don't expect any of this to have the strength to continue the uptrend, in fact, Microsoft's report may add further pressure to stocks and help with the pullback I have speculated on above.

Until then, remember the trend!

Thomas Hughes


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Market Internals

President Obama traveled to The Netherlands today to take part in G7 meetings. He met with representatives of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the European Council and the European Commission to discuss the further threats that might be offered by Russia's actions and the steps that G7 members might take. The resultant Declaration of the Hague Convention of the G7 said that they affirmed support for Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence, as well as for the people of Ukraine. They reiterated that international law had been broken when Russia illegally attempted to annex the Crimea. They affirmed that "significant consequences" would result, with those applied individually and collectively. They reminded Russia of its international obligations and warned that it had a clear choice as to whether to avail itself of diplomatic avenues. They said that Russia's support for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine was "a step in the right direction." They vowed not to participate in the upcoming G8 Sochi Summit or any G8 meetings "until Russia changes course." They agreed that the IMF has a central role in supporting reform in the Ukraine and urged the IMF to "reach a rapid conclusion." They want the cooperation of the World Bank, the EU, and other financial institutions and believe that the work of the IMF is crucial in obtaining the needed financial backing to the Ukraine.

Commodity markets and equity markets in the U.S. appeared more riveted on what would happen with interest rates than with the G7 meeting. Today San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams denied that the FOMC suggested last week that interest rates would be raised sooner than had previously been believed. Many Fed watchers had interpreted FOMC Chair Janet Yellen's speculation that rates might rise about six months after stimulus ends as a moving up of the timetable for rate hikes. Williams also denied that one of the charts presented by the FOMC and showing that the committee expected slightly higher interest rates at the end of 2016 proved that rate hikes would occur sooner than previously expected. He said that chart was "just a reflection that the economy has gotten a little bit better and interest rates might be just a little higher" than previously thought (Washington Post). Although Williams is a non-voting member of the committee this year, several articles characterized him as an ally of Chair Yellen.

The SPX dropped 0.49 percent; the Dow, 0.16 percent; and the NDX, 0.98 percent. The RUT lost 1.30 percent, and the SOX, 0.46 percent. Momentum stocks such as FB and GOOG suffered today.

Those momentum stocks weren't the only securities that suffered. Gold futures (/GC)for April delivery settled at 1311.20, down 24.8 points. The drop in gold futures was the largest seen in almost three months, with the blame being assigned to FOMC Chair Janet Yellen's "six months" statement from last week. Several metals analysts commented that gold doesn't tend to perform well in a rising-rate environment. Silver futures (/SI) for May delivery settled at 20.067, down 0.243. Copper futures (/HG) for May delivery settled at 2.9455, down 0.0050. Light sweet crude futures (/CL) for May delivery settled at 99.60, up 0.14.

Monday's Developments

Monday's market developments begin with overnight trading in Asia. This weekend, the deputy governor of China's People's Bank of China suggested that the country might allow some debt defaults to occur in the wealth management market, according to news source AFP. The deputy governor expressed the belief that such defaults would help to regulate the markets and lead those involved to better manage risks.

In addition to that news, the HSBC March Manufacturing PMI for China measured 48.1, slipping lower than the expected 48.7 or February's 48.5. March's result marked an eight-month low for production. One bright spot was the increase in new export orders. Employment decreased again, but its rate of decrease slowed. However, there was nothing good in output and new orders computations in this report: each fell at a faster rate.

HSBC's chief economist for China and co-head of Asian economic research said that the weakness had been broad based. He predicted that China's government would likely introduce policy measures meant to stabilize growth as a result of the weakness. Spending on infrastructure such as subways, measures meant to lower rates and measures to make it easier for private investors in business could be employed, he said.

Market watchers had expected to see further weakness in China's PMI numbers. Perhaps, in Asia, they expected worse than they saw or some market participants were cheered with thought of those measures the government might take to boost the economy. Asian bourses rose after that report. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.77 percent; the Hang Seng, 1.91 percent, and the Straits Times, 1.25 percent. China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.91 percent.

In Europe, Markit's Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI surprised to the upside in France, coming in above the benchmark 50 rather than below it. Germany's results disappointed, however, although the headline numbers were still well above the benchmark 50 for both manufacturing and services, at 53.8 and 54.0, respectively.

Perhaps Germany's disappointing figures, carryover worries about the effects of a slowdown in China, and further upheaval in the Crimea all hit Europe this morning. Ahead of this week's G7 meetings, news sources this weekend featured scenes of Russian troops breaking through barriers at the last remaining Ukrainian military post in the Crimea. In addition, the NATO commander warned that Russia was amassing a strong force on the Ukrainian border and might also be planning to invade Moldova.

European bourses dropped in broad-based losses, but with Spain's financials hit hard. The FTSE 100 lost 0.56 percent; the DAX, 1.65 percent; and the CAC 40, 1.36 percent. Spain's IBEX 35 dropped 1.39 percent, and Italy's FTSE MIB, 1.65 percent.

What about U.S. reports? The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for February, with the CFNAI beating expectations. Unlike reports produced by many of the Fed banks, the CFNAI computes national rather than regional results, measuring both economic activity and inflationary pressures. A benchmark number of zero delineates growth versus contraction.

The Chicago Fed reported the CFNAI at 0.14, above the consensus 0.10, the prior -0.39 and the prior revised -0.45. Once again, market watchers have been waiting to see if the "brutal weather" explanation for weakness early this year held true, with indicators reversing higher again in subsequent months. This result encouraged the belief that the lower economic results early in the year were a temporary, weather-related blip.

Under the influence of that downward revision to the prior number, the three-month average dropped to -0.18, however. That was the first time that three-month average dropped below zero in six months, the Chicago Fed noted in its report, meaning that the national economic index drifted lower than its historical trend.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index fell to -0.06, down from January's +0.03. The Chicago Fed explains that this diffusion index measures how broadly the 85 indicators it uses contributed to the result in the monthly index. This time, 54 out of 85 indicators made positive contributions while the rest made negative contributions.

Drilling down beneath the number, the Chicago Fed said that -related indicators drove the number higher in February, and that's good for those hoping for strength. Production-related indicators added 0.26 to the CFNAI. Employment made a negative contribution of -0.02, however. Consumption and housing also made a negative contribution but were less negative than they had been in January.

Soon after the CFNAI, Markit released its latest U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI, with that March number disappointing expectations. At 55.5, it was lower than the expected 56.6. The prior, revised-higher number was 57.1. The news was not bad when the results were examined with more care, however.

For example, Markit noted that February's manufacturing PMI had measured a 45-month high, so the fact that the March number slipped lower than that 45-month high did not signal weakness, Markit concluded. The headline number was still the second highest since January, 2013.

Both output and new orders rose sharply, Markit's summary said, although elsewhere in the report, the increases to 57.8 and 59.6, respectively, were characterized as expansions at slower rates. Manufacturers said new work pushed those orders higher along with efforts to take care of their backlogs. Order growth was hampered by "subdued export demand," Markit said.

Employment increased another month, with employment growth stronger than seen on average. Respondents to Markit's survey expressed confidence about the U.S. economy's growth and business outlook. Markit remarked on five successive months of higher levels of input buying, affirming that greater confidence. Output, new orders, new export orders, employment, backlogs of work, stocks of purchases and quantities of purchases all increased. Stocks of finished goods contracted and suppliers' delivery times lengthened.

Output and input prices both rose. Markit noted that the rate of inflation remains lower than that typically seen over the last five years.

The first quarter's average rose to 55.4 from 53.8 from the fourth quarter of 2013, so Markit's results differed from the Chicago Fed's CFNAI with respect to three-month averages. Markit said respondents to its survey reported improving economic fundamentals amid a continuing catch-up effect after the weather conditions seen earlier in the year. In summary, Markit believes this quarter's performance will provide "a robust contribution to GDP."

Futures had been positive leading into this release. What happened? Perhaps not so cheery to some market participants was another assertion. That assertion was Markit's conclusion that the strength of these numbers would likely encourage the Fed to continue its taper program. Coming after last week's concerns that asset buying would end sooner than expected and tightening might appear sooner than expected, these results might have spooked equity markets already worried about geopolitical developments.

Moody's weekly Business Confidence measured 36.4, inching slightly lower from last week's 36.6. Moody's still describes the sentiment as being in tune with an economy that is growing well above its potential.

Story stocks today include Apple (AAPL, 539.19, up 6.32 or 1.19 percent) and Comcast. The Wall Street Journal reported this weekend that the two companies are talking about a service that would employ an Apple set-top box to stream content stored in the "cloud" to Comcast customers. The deal would ensure Apple special treatment that would avoid congestion on the web. Netflix (NFLX, 378.90, down 27.09 or 6.67 percent) and Comcast have already announced an agreement that would allow Netflix content to escape some of the buffering that slows content. NFLX dropped heavily with this announcement.

Some business commentators were soon decrying the possible deal, however, pointing out the deal offered no advantages to Comcast and could offer risks by angering those in favor of net neutrality. I wonder if Comcast cares about net neutrality advocates?

AAPL was in the news for another reason. As has become increasingly common in recent weeks, analysts were speculating on the launch of AAPL's iPhone 6. Some analysts believe that launch will be late summer or early fall.

Speculation about AAPL caused grief to another company, Pandora Media, Inc. (P, 31.39, down 2.62 or 7.70 percent). Speculation that AAPL is considering an iTunes app for Google's Android mobile devices was deemed responsible for P's drop.

Cisco Systems (CSCO, 21.57, down 0.07 or 0.32 percent) will spend $1 billion to enter the the cloud computing services market, a WSJ article revealed.

Twitter (TWTR, 47.77, down 2.15 or 4.22 percent), however, will be exiting one of its services: the music service. The app will be removed from Apple's iTunes store.

Analysts who parsed Wal-Mart's (WMT, 76.76, up 0.66 or 0.87 percent)10-K noted that the company had included, among the other risks to its expected performance, the impact of changes in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)and other public assistance programs. This isn't news, yet it was getting lots of coverage. Common sense and WMT's previous statements have made it clear that WMT is impacted when the most on-the-edge people in the economy receive fewer benefits.

Independent oil and gas company Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP, 14.17, up 0.31 or 2.24 percent) announced that its well in Amite County, Mississippi was producing a peak 24-hour average production rate of 950 BOE to date. Nine hundred barrels of oil and 300 Mcf of gas comprised the mix. The well's production was in the lower end of the company's target. The company also updated on other wells.

Herbalife (HLF, 52.86, up 3.32 or 6.70 percent) said today that it had restated and amended its agreement with Carl Icahn and others who own, altogether, about 16.8 percent of the company's outstanding shares (Icahn Parties). HLF will nominate three of Icahn Parties' designees to serve on the board of directors. Also, two employees of Icahn Enterprises will be nominated to directorships.

Chinese regulators fined Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS, 88.66, up 13.66 or 18.21 percent) $500,000, saying the company had sold illegal products and misled customers. The company says that it's correcting the issues that led to the fine. The stock price jumped.

Regulators in Asia slowed down the completion of Nokia's (NOK, 7.22, up 0.05, 0.70 percent) sale of its devices and services division to Microsoft (MSFT, 40.50, up 0.34 or 0.85 percent) The deal should be completed in April, NOK said. Some analysts expressed concern that NOK may have to agree to patent concessions to obtain that regulatory approval in Asia.

Wintergreen Advisors, shareholder in Coca-Cola (KO, 38.40, down 0.04 or 0.10 percent), expressed concern over KO's equity plan for 2014. Wintergreen, in a letter to KO's board of directors and Warren Buffett, also a KO shareholder via Berkshire Hathaway, quarreled with the amount of money transferred from shareholders to the members of the company's management team. KO countered that those members of the management team would have to meet specific business goals to collect those funds.

Network security firm Palo Alto Networks (PANW, 73.13, down 3.43 or 4.48 percent) said today that it was acquiring Tel-Aviv cybersecurity firm Cyvera for $200 million. Cyvera is privately held. The deal is expected to close the second half of 2014's financial year.

Jim Brown discussed Lions Gate (LGF, 28.66, up 1.06 or 3.84 percent) in detail in this weekend's Wrap. The company's "Divergent" movie sales of $56 million last weekend topped estimates, the company reported today.

Let's look at daily charts. Last week, the setup on weekly charts had suggested the possibility of a reversal, perhaps after a week of consolidation. Last week's trading produced the consolidation. Does today's decline make that reversal a stronger possibility?

Those new to my Monday Wraps might find the following paragraphs useful when interpreting my charts. Those who have read the Wraps can skip straight to the charts. I set up nested Keltner channels on my charts. It's a run-of-the-mill channeling system like the more familiar Bollinger Bands. As with those more familiar BB's, channel boundaries are often targets for upside or downside moves. They also mark levels where prices might find support or resistance on closes. When several channel lines converge, that potential resistance or support might appear stronger, just as it would if 20-, 50- and 100-sma's all converge in one spot.

For the benefit of subscribers, I mark potential upside and downside target/support/resistance levels with rectangles, usually green for upside and red for downside. Orange rectangles are sometimes used when the darker-colored ones would not allow for a clear examination of the next target. From now on, I will mention the nearest potential support or resistance level in the discussion on the chart, but not the further-out ones. They can be located on the charts if price breaks through the nearest levels on consistent daily closes. If an interpretation such as "support levels appear stronger than resistance, so up looks more likely than down" is possible, I'll tell you. Often we traders must be able to defend our trade against a move in either direction.

As with any type of potential support or resistance, those with profits should be protective of those profits as support or resistance is tested. If prices find support and climb, look to the next higher rectangle, even one just broken through, as potential resistance. Do the reverse when resistance is breached. Hopefully, this format provides you with the information you need without requiring all night to read as happens when I list each potential support or resistance level individually.

Legend for Keltner Channels and Moving Averages:

This legend provides values for the SPX, but the same moving average and Keltner setup pertains to all the charts utilized in this Wrap.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:

Last week's consolidation shows up when we consider how the SPX performed with respect to its 9-ema on the daily chart. Instead of climbing along the spine of a rising 9-ema, the SPX chopped back and forth across a flattening 9-ema. Because that moving average is flattening, it doesn't currently serve well as a bullish/bearish delineation. However, consistent daily closes below it, especially if those are consistent long enough to turn that moving average lower, would obviously be more bearish than bullish. The reverse is true of consistent daily closes above the moving average if it's turned higher again.

For now, strongest nearby potential support on daily closes appears to be at the confluence of historical and Keltner support from about 1,833-1,848. Until that support zone breaks, we can't assume anything except that the SPX is again retesting former resistance from late December and mid-January. Has that former resistance on daily closes been converted to support, as appeared to be true when it was retested in March?

Consistent daily closes beneath 1,833 appear more concerning and could result in a quick trip down to next Keltner support on daily closes near 1,780-1,800. That support also joins with known historical support.

The Keltner setup suggests that if support near 1,780 is broken on consistent daily closes, the long-term tenor has changed. In Keltner terms, a next downside target is set near 1,680-1,693, but we should not ignore the potential support offered near 1,740, where February's decline stopped, or potential round-number support near 1,700.

What about a more bullish case? Since the SPX is chopping back and forth across the red 9-ema, a rush back up to test the recent high just under 1,884 or even the next potential upside Keltner target near 1,894-1,912 can't be ruled out yet. Although the 9-ema doesn't serve as strongly as a benchmark in its current flattened state, consistent daily closes back above it would lend more credence to a resistance test.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

The Dow's setup proves similar. I've marked the support/resistance region surrounding the 9-ema, but that 9-ema has flattened. The Dow chops either side of it without predicting much about next direction. The Keltner setup suggests nearest strong support on daily closes at about 16,066-16,187. That potential support zone also corresponds to the swing high from late November and the swing lows earlier in March. The Keltner configuration suggests that sustained daily closes below about 16,066 would set up a next potential downside target near 15,862-15,967. Of course, the round-number support near 16,000 intervenes, and bears would do well to protect short-term bearish gains if the Dow should approach 16,000.

In case this is the beginning of a sustained downturn, lower potential downside targets are also marked. The Dow's narrow composition makes it easier to push around, and it sometimes overruns boundaries, including Keltner channel lines. However, overrunning the potential support zone from about 15,600-15,700 for more than a few days suggests a retest of the early February low might be next.

Long-term bulls do not want to see that February low exceeded on daily closes for more than a day or two. Such a move would confirm a lower high this month, as compared to the 16,588.25 all-time high, and would likely damage market sentiment. Remember that to most of the investing public, the Dow is "the market," despite its narrow composition. I've marked one lower potential downside target, too.

Since the chop back and forth across the flattened 9-ema doesn't tell us much about next direction, we have to consider that the Dow could head higher again. If the Dow heads higher again, the Keltner configuration suggests a next potential upside target near 16,580-16,707, where the Dow might again hit potential resistance on daily closes. That development would constitute a retest of the 12/31 swing high, too. A higher potential upside target is also marked if the Dow should maintain daily closes above 16,707.

Annotated Daily Chart of the NDX:

The NDX has dropped well away from the top trendline of its broadening formation. If you're old school, you would note that today it also confirmed the head-and-shoulders formation from the late February/early March/middle March formation. Those formations that used to guide our trading decisions no longer prove as reliable as they did before the advent of algorithmic trading, but it's still a more bearish than bullish sign.

Short-term bulls would like to see the NDX producing consistent daily closes back above about 3,636 as soon as possible to negate that formation. Such closes back above 3,636 might increase the chance that the NDX can power up to test the next potential resistance, likely to be located at about 3,660-3,700. Consistent daily closes above about 3,700 would set up a potential retest of the top trendline of that broadening formation. A potential resistance zone is marked on the chart.

The scarier proposition to bulls is that consistent daily closes below about 3,578 suggest a decline to the next potential Keltner target at about 3,484-3,522. The NDX, like the Dow, tends to overrun Keltner boundaries, but prices often get mired nearby, so they do offer at least some guidance as to where the NDX might go. Sustained daily closes beneath about 3,484 would appear serious, a change in the long-term behavior of the NDX, setting up that lowest potential target near the lower boundary of the broadening formation.

Annotated Daily Chart of the RUT:

Leading into this week, the RUT had also been chopping back and forth across a flattening 9-ema, demonstrating that the upward momentum had waned. The 9-ema became less sound of a benchmark for bullish-versus-bearish behavior.

Today, the RUT dropped to test the next Keltner potential downside target, with its potential support on daily closes extending from about 1,164-1,178. This zone includes the swing high from January as well as the middle-March swing low, verifying that this is a potentially important support zone. If the RUT produces daily closes below this Keltner configuration for more than a day or two, it tends to fall all the way to the next Keltner target, currently at about 1,120-1,133. A sustained break through that support would be particularly significant since it's been many years since the RUT has broken that support currently at about 1,120-1,133 for more than a few daily closes in a row.

What about the more bullish case? Even with a cursory glance at the RUT's daily chart, we can find many times when tall red candles are followed by tall white candles. Those candles sometimes soon push prices back up through the red 9-ema and on their way into another rally. For now, we have to presume that the red 9-ema could offer resistance on daily closes, but if the RUT should bounce hard back up through the red 9-ema, and particularly if it should sustain daily closes above about 1,205, it sets a next potential daily target from about 1,213-1,230. The RUT's advances have tended to top out near that Keltner configuration marked by the green rectangle, sometimes pushing it a bit higher before succumbing to its resistance.

Annotated Daily Chart of the VIX:

The Monday after quadruple witching can produce wonky values for the VIX as market participants decide on their outlook on the market 30 days ahead. Last week, as the SPX chopped back and forth, the VIX dropped, and today's action didn't do much to clarify its next direction or that of the SPX and other indices. Keep it on your radar screen, however.

Tomorrow's Economic and Earnings Releases

This week's important economic events are carried forward from Jim Brown's weekend Wrap.

What about Tomorrow on the 60-minute Charts?

Because of the choppiness over the last week, the 60-minute charts provide a better overview than the 30-minute ones.

Annotated 60-Minute Chart of the SPX:

As the SPS has been chopping back and forth, it's held most 60-minute closes within the flattening purple Keltner channel based on the 45-ema. Today, the SPX dropped to the bottom of that channel, pushing the boundary lower, and bounced back to a configuration that could well provide significant resistance on 60-minute closes. That resistance extends from about 1,860-1,867. Consistent 60-minute closes below that zone, particularly below the lower end of that zone, might suggest that the SPX would turn down again toward today's low. Next potential support on 60-minute closes might exist from about 1,842-1,848. Sustained 60-minute closes below about 1,842, particularly if price then confirms by dropping below about 1,839, suggest a potential short-term price target of 1,815-1,820.

What about the case for upside movement? If the SPX sustains 60-minute closes above about 1,867, it sets a potential price target at about 1,875 or perhaps even 1,880-1,885, where it could again encounter significant resistance on 60-minute closes. A higher potential price target is also marked in case the SPX can maintain 60-minute closes above about 1,885.

Annotated 60-Minute Chart of the Dow:

The Dow did not drop all the way to the bottom of the Keltner channel that is now marked by potential support on 60-minute closes from about 16,100-16,150. Yet, the Dow's rise this afternoon was thwarted when prices got tangled up by potential resistance on 60-minute closes that extends from about 16,265-16,325. Sustained 60-minute closes below about 16,265 would suggest that the Dow is again setting a potential downside target near 16,100-16,150, but we all know that some traders are going to be watching today's low for bounce possibility, too, so short-term bears should be watching for that possibility if they're guarding profits.

A lower potential target is also marked on the chart in case the Dow sustains 60-minute closes below about 16,100. It's likely that potential support could be compressed back down near 16,050, too, so short-term bears should be aware of that possible support, too.

What about the bullish case? Sustained 60-minute closes above about 16,325 set up a potential upside target at 16,350-16,375, although the potential resistance there would possibly be pushed higher, toward the next Keltner target at 16,450-16,485. A higher target is potential target is also marked.

The problem with chop is that it chops out lots of possible support/resistance levels and provides little insight into which are the most important and which can be ignored. That's true of all the potential support and resistance levels inside the purple channel's boundaries.

Annotated 60-Minute Chart of the NDX:

The NDX's weakness relative to the previous two indices shows up on this Keltner chart. The NDX broke through the purple Keltner channel's boundaries today, and its afternoon bounce brought it up to again challenge the lower boundary. Consistent 60-minute closes beneath about 3,615 set up that potential lower target now at about 3,560-3,570.

What about the more bullish case? If the NDX can instead sustain 60-minute closes above about 3,628, it sets a next potential upside target near the midline of the flattened Keltner channels, with potential resistance on 60-minute closes gathering from about 3,657-3,675. There's danger that the NDX could again be turned down by that gathering resistance, but if it can sustain 60-minute closes above about 3,675, it sets a next target at the top of the purple Keltner channel, with resistance there likely to be pushed up toward 3,710-3,720 by such a move.

Annotated 60-Minute Chart of the Russell 2000:

The RUT also fell through the lower boundary of the purple channel in which it had mostly been chopping sideways. Sustained 60-minute closes below about 1,177 again set a potential downside target of about 1,153-1,157, but bears would have to be aware that today's low could provide some support, too.

The RUT needs to sustain 60-minute closes above about 1,182 before it sets a new potential upside target. That target would be at about 1,187-1,192. Resistance on 60-minute closes could be significant there and could send the RUT back again to retest the lower boundary of the purple channel. However, sustained 60-minute closes above about 1,192 set a next potential upside target at about 1,203-1,207. A higher potential target is also marked.

Choppy market conditions over the last week have chopped out wide consolidation bands that make predicting next directions difficult while prices move within those bands. Some indices such as the NDX and RUT broke below last week's consolidation band. That's concerning when they appear to lead to the downside. Both bounced well off today's lows by the close, clouding the interpretation of today's events, but both appeared to stall again at the first resistance test. Neither broke convincingly back up inside the purple channel that had been containing prices. In the old days, I would have taken this as a sign that more weakness was coming and likely would have gone home with a speculative put or two. I don't speculate on direction any longer.

Take seriously any movement that pushes prices below today's lows on these two indices unless there's a quick reversal from such a move. However, let's be honest. We live in a different time than we did previously, when chart formations such as head-and-shoulders or double tops or even movements above or below key support/resistance levels could reliably predict next movements. Futures movement during overnight trading sometimes decide the next day's direction before we're even awake, and that direction may be contrary to any predicted on the charts. Please build scenarios for movements either direction.

Linda Piazza


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Editors Note:

Earnings and revenue rising sharply and exactly what fund managers are going to be looking for in a Q4 rally.

NOW- ServiceNow Inc - Company Profile

ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise cloud-based solutions that define, structure, manage, and automate services in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It offers service management solutions, including incident management, problem management, change management, and request management, as well as service catalog and knowledge base; and information technology (IT), HR, customer service, security operations, facilities, and field service management solutions. The company also provides business management solutions, such as financial management solutions; project portfolio suite that provides capabilities to plan, organize, and manage projects; governance, risk, and compliance solution that provides clarity into compliance and audit initiatives; and performance analytics solutions. It serves enterprises in various industries, including financial services, consumer products, IT services, health care, and technology.

In late July the company posted earnings of 15 cents that beat analyst estimates for 10 cents. Revenue rose 38% to $341.3 million and beating estimates for $334 million. Billings rose 33% to $375 million. Emerging product revenue rose 40%, up from 24% in the year ago quarter. Two-thirds of their customers now license more than one product and 15 of the top 20 new deals included three of more products. They now have more than 272 customers paying more than $1 million each in annual license revenues, an increase of 26 for the quarter.

They guided for revenue in Q3 of $350-$354 million and analysts were expecting $349 million. Full year guidance was for revenue of $1.37-$1.38 billion and above analyst estimates for $1.37 billion. Subscription revenues are expected to rise 40%. Subscription revenue gross margin is expected to be 84%. Total revenues are expected to rise 35%.

Mizuho recently upgraded them from neutral to buy with an $85 price target.

Earnings Oct 26th.

Shares spiked on earnings then declined in the post earnings depression phase. After two weeks of choppy gains they are about to break out to a new 8-month high. Unfortunately, option premiums are high so this will have to be a spread. Shares closed at $76.74 and the $80 strike is $4.70 and the $85 strike at $2.85. I do not really want to just buy the $85 strike because that is $8 OTM. To solve this problem I am recommending we buy the $80 strike and sell the $90 strike, currently $1.35. The stock hit a high of $91 back in December.

Buy Nov $80 call, currently $4.70, no initial stop loss.
Sell short Nov $90 call, currently $1.35, no initial stop loss.
Net debit $3.35.

No New Bearish Plays


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