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Mad Max 2 / The Road Warrior
Road Warrior Lost Version / Alternate TV Version

Back in the days when there was less violence on TV, an extremely censored version of Mad Max 2 was created for TV. It was screened sometime in the mid-80's on NBC (USA), and subsequently on Network 10 in Australia, and possibly also other countries. This practice of having an alternate TV version with scene differences is actually not uncommon, especially when some scenes of a film have had to be cut, requiring additional scenes to pad the film back out to proper length.

This version is notable for several reasons. Firstly the opening and closing narrative are given by an uncredited American actor (who sounds a lot like Gus Mercurio), instead of the original Harold Baigent voice overs (although Harold's credit remains in the modified version). This version is censored to the extreme, with most of the human violence cut out  - they even cut out Max saying "Crap". To pad the time back out for all these cuts, in many places additional or alternate scenes have been added.

Thanks to the tireless efforts of The WordWarrior, I have below a pretty much complete list of everything that is different in this modified TV version. If anyone out there has a pretty much pristine copy of this modified version, and would like to help me out in getting a better copy myself, please contact me. I have a pretty good NTSC copy at the moment, but a clearer copy would still be nice.

FeralKidandDog2.jpg (22273 bytes)

The Road Warrior "Lost" Version / Alternate TV version differences are as follows:

UNCUT, "I remember the roadwarrior, the man we called Max." NBC, "I remember the man we called Max, the roadwarrior." UNCUT, "Ordinary men were battered and smashed." NBC, "Good, brave men were battered and smashed." UNCUT, "Men like Max, the warrior Max." NBC, "Men like Max, who ruled the highways in the name of the law. Who became a lover, husband, father." UNCUT, "...lost everything, but became a shell of a man, a burnt-out desolate man. A man haunted by the demons of his past." NBC, "...lost everything, his woman, his child, his world." UNCUT, "A man that wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that learned to live again." NBC, "He wandered out into the wasteland, and here he would learn, amid the dark wreckage, that the fire which burns in the heart of man, will endure. Hope survives."

The NBC cuts out Wez pulling the arrow out of his arm. The NBC replaces the dying dune buggie driver screaming with a shot of the road as the sound of a crow crawing, and flapping it's wings, is heard. NBC cuts out the rig driver's bloated face shots.

The NBC switches to an aerial shot of Max as he approaches the gyroplane. This is done to hide the nude girl painted on the gyroplane. NBC silences Max as he says "Crap!" to the Gyrocaptain.

NBC cuts out shots of the Woman while she's exposed. NBC cuts out shots of rape and of Wez shooting arrows into Nathan. NBC cuts out shot of Mohawker shooting woman with crossbow. NBC shuffles some shots- the Gyrocaptain watches Wez drive off through his telescope, as opposed to Max. As soon as Max starts to swing his tool at the Mohawker's head, NBC cuts to a shocked Gyrocaptain as he looks through his telescope. This shocked look was used after the shooting of the Woman in the UNCUT.

NBC cuts out Max pulling and cutting Nathan from the arrows. NBC adds a shot of the FERAL KID and DOG together as Max carries Nathan. NBC replaces a shot of Nathan's bloodied face with a shot of the faces of those that are helping him. NBC adds Pappagallo touching Nathan's face as Big Rebecca stands angry. NBC shows a light truck pulling the interceptor into the compound.

FeralKidandDog.jpg (22113 bytes)
The Feral Kid plays with Dog

NBC replaces a panning shot of the Marauders, including several victims sprawled across cars, with a far way shot. NBC adds a shot of Big Rebecca and Quiet Man lowering their weapons. NBC adds shot of two Gayboy Berserkers standing up out of the T-top. NBC replaces close-up shot of Toadie punching Defiant Victim with a longer angle shot. NBC cuts out rabbit twirling after Wez shoots it. NBC switches to Pappagallo while Wez head-butts Defiant Victim. As the boomerang flies the first time, NBC adds a shot of a Goggle Mohawker watching. NBC cuts out shot of boomerang in Golden Youth's head. NBC adds Max observing. As the boomerang flies toward Toadie, NBC adds a dune buggie driver observing, and the sidecar Mohawker observing. NBC cuts out slicing of Toadie's fingers. NBC adds a dune buggie driver laughing, and the sidecar Mohawker laughing. NBC cuts out shot of the back of Humumgus' head, and also the dialogue, "We all lost someone we love." NBC adds Max observing. After the Humungus starts his vehicle, NBC adds the sidecar Mohawkers mounting, the Goggle Mohawker and two different dune buggie drivers getting into their vehicles. NBC adds a shot of the Ford F100 truck driving off. NBC adds a shot of the Marauders driving off, with Pappagallo in foreground.

NBC adds, "Do we wander the wasteland, and become like them, savages?" and, "And I'll stay, alone if I have to. I'll leave them nothing. That I promise."

NBC switches to an angle including the Bearclaw Mohawker and Max, as the Bearclaw Mohawker looks, picks up a stone and throws.

NBC removed the shot of the truck falling on the marauder's leg, and replaces with an aerial shot of the rig racing down the road past some trees, from a side view. Between shot of rig rounding the corner and Humungous loading his gun, NBC adds two additional aerial wide shots of the rig, with marauders in pursuit. Intercut between the two aerial shots is an additional close up shot looking at the Gyro Captain. NBC cuts close up shot of tent lovers, and replaces with wide shot of the rig running over the tent, with no lovers to be seen. As Max sounds the horn, NBC adds shot of Pappagallo saying "Get to your positions!" NBC adds four shots of good guys running and climbing to their positions. NBC adds wide shot of rig and pursuers approaching just before close up shot of Wez. As Max struggles with Wez, NBC adds shot of Pappagallo, "Open the gate!". NBC cuts out shot of airgun arrows in the back of a Gayboy Berserker's seat. NBC cuts out pink Chevy driver's face before the car is covered in flames and explodes. NBC cuts out head-butt by Wez to Quiet Man. When Pappagallo is hit with an arrow, NBC switches to Pappagallo's face, instead of showing his leg. NBC adds a shot of Wez doing a forward somersault as he's running through the compound.

GetToYourPositions.jpg (19384 bytes)
"Get to your positions!"

NBC includes a new take of Pappagallo as he says, "How's the rig?" NBC cuts the Marauders setting a victim on fire and shows other marauders whipping, etc. NBC adds Zetta running across during repairs.

NBC adds shot of Gayboy Berserker lower crossbow after Dog comes from behind rock. NBC cuts dog yelping. NBC switches to a shot of Toadie as he says, "The tanks are full, oh mighty Wez, and it's all yours!" NBC cuts out shots of Toadie and Gayboy Berserker during explosion. NBC adds a green hue to the screen as soon as Max turns over and sees the Gyroplane.

NBC replaces, "C'mon, cut the crap" with, "You're not so sprite yourself." NBC silences the Gyrocaptain as he yells, "Oh, shit!" NBC replaces a shot of Feral Kid with a shot of the Gyroplane flying. NBC cuts shot of grappling hook on Zetta's leg. NBC switches to a top-of-the-tanker angle looking back as Zetta is pulled off of the tanker by the dragging dune buggy. NBC avoids showing Warrior Woman's blood soaked, arrow wounds. NBC cuts Warrior Woman drooling blood. NBC adds Mechanic putting down his things and leaning over to pull Warrior Woman back up. NBC cuts Warrior Woman and the Mechanic being hit and pulled to land on the road. NBC cuts close up of Red Falcon's windscreen being shot. NBC cuts close-ups of passenger trying to steer the Red Falcon. NBC cuts the flying Mohawker stunt. NBC cuts the "Shoot the Tyre!" run-over scene and Humungus ramming into the tanker, taking the Broken Victim's head off. NBC adds shots of Gyroplane, Gyrocaptain. NBC adds stationary shot of motorcycle and dune buggy jumping a crest off-road. NBC adds 2 shots of motorcycles and dune buggy alongside Pappagallo. NBC adds Gyroplane flying forward, Gyrocaptain looking at Rig, Gyroplane flying past the Rig. NBC cuts Feral Kid looking after arrow lands between Max's legs. NBC replaces Masked Mohawker being shot, with a shot of Max's arm outstretched, firing.

No major changes (besides Narrator)

ApproachingCompound.jpg (19039 bytes)
Additional wide shot of vehicles approaching during the Rig Delivery

Lost Version DVD

Since around early September 2002, the "Road Warrior Lost Version" has been showing up for sale on eBay as a DVD. Chris Maier purchased one of these DVDs, and has been able to provide some additional information on it. Basically the disc is a DVD-R, and Chris says the quality is about as good as if you had taped it from a television broadcast (which is probably what was done I would guess). It also includes the Mad Max 2 making of documentary and a trailer, which have most probably been taken from the Road Warrior Special Edition VHS. The film itself contains only three chapter stops. Below is a scan of the cover.

If you want to try getting hold of this, you could either search eBay, or you could try emailing Shane at

Back to Mad Max 2 / The Road Warrior (1981)

Back to Mad Max Movies Home


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Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Spring Break

it's been a long time.

Over spring break we went to Southern California to visit Suzanna's family and to take in some sun. We spent the night at Red Rocks in Las Vegas and bouldered with a couple cool german kids we met.
We stayed with Vanessa, Bradley and Samantha for a couple days and visited the beach (it was cold) and Ikea. On thursday we went to the Getty Museum and drove up to Ruth and Rhett's. We stopped at Stoney Point, a crazy bouldering area between LA and Simi Valley. The next day was Clemens birthday and we spent the day bouldering in Malibu State Park (the planet of the apes wall) and Stoney Point with Vanessa. She is a hardwoman. That night we swam and ate white bratworst and had chocolate cake. YUM!
The drive home was long. Suzanna was sick and we drove for 12 hours straight. We got to Orem at 2 in the morning and after a great night of sleep were able to play with Burklie before she went home. We went to church with Barbara and Hagen and got back to Logan around 10:30 PM.

It has been hard to get back into the swing of things, school seems 10 times as hard to focus on. But we liked to see life beyond the college scene.

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Dec 30

Reality Has Its Own Purpose In and For Itself
Bhakti Madhava Puri, Ph. D.
Princeton Bhakti Vedanta Institute

In a recent article by Deepak Chopra, MD, “Can We Evolve Beyond Evolution? We Have To” [1] it was mentioned that

“– The reality we accept is a human construct.”
“– We should see ourselves as conscious creators who imbue reality with our own purposes.”

While many people think this way there are also those who believe reality is fixed in stone beyond whatever they may think of it. To some extent both are right. We do have the freedom to interpret what we experience, and mind does play a role in determining what the senses observe. At the same time reality doesn’t just disappear when we do not perceive it. Our house is still there when we go to work for several hours. For instance, it could burn down when we are not there. So it is not all a human construct, and as for purposes they also are not solely created by us.

A more satisfactory conception would be one that includes and harmonizes both the idealism of a mind or consciousness based creation of reality, and the realism of the inherent purposefulness of an already existing reality of which we are part and parcel.

The reality people experience is a human construct insofar as it is limited to sensuous perception of the phenomenal world of appearance, as well as the circumscribed judgments of finite understanding. However, this does not reach to the noumenal Reality in and for itself beyond or behind its apparent or phenomenal surface. In India the mayavad philosophy of Brahman Satyam, Jagat Mithyä claims that Reality is purely a product of human misconception and only Brahman as mere impersonal consciousness (an oxymoron since consciousness is the essence of personality) is the absolute reality or truth. This philosophy, also called kevaladvaita, however, does not provide an alternative to material reductionism but merely an alternative reductionism. Instead of reducing everything to matter it proposes to reduce everything to impersonal consciousness. In fact, what is needed is an alternative way of thinking that is not based solely on the judgments of a finite ego that is found, for instance, in the abstract thinking of Kantian philosophy in the West as well as in the kevaladvaita interpretations of Shankaracharya in the East.

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text: I'm currently moving my existing mysql database to cassandra. One particular problem I have is to migrate all those integer auto-increment ids to cassandra's code generated keys (like UUID). One way I can do is to dump all the existing records into Cassandra and start with UUID for new records, but this will leave mixed mode of ids. another way I can think of is to re-create existing records using UUID and deal with all those referential keys. Either way seems kinda awkward. Are there any good practice to deal with this? I know many people here come from mysql, what did you do?


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Current-Users archive

[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index][Old Index]

Re: build simply stops

On Tue, Jul 24, 2012 at 10:16:51PM +0100, Chavdar Ivanov wrote:
> -j24 enough parallel?

That should be!

So, I just tried again - cvs update at Jul 25 13:57 GMT, new kernel,
newfs the /usr/obj partition, build -j4 -E -x build, and this time
I'm as far as

ln -sf
mv -f
ln -sf
mv -f

and nothing is happening, 100% idle, 9 nbmake processes in S.
Maybe a clue:  3997 ttyp2 Z     0:00.00 (x86_64--netbsd-o) ?

Still no idea...

Home | Main Index | Thread Index | Old Index


text:
Subject: Re: kern/20467: timeout delayed on tl(4) and system slowdown
To: Mario Kemper <>
From: Manuel Bouyer <>
List: netbsd-bugs
Date: 02/24/2003 21:23:54
On Sun, Feb 23, 2003 at 10:26:22PM +0100, Mario Kemper wrote:
> I did a ping flood to my AccessPoint (the only thing currently
> connected) which led to about 1500-2000 Interrupts.

Looks good

> CPU load is not rising significantly while i do this.

Well, I don't understant what is causing the problems then ...
Maybe it's a compatibility problem between your motherboard and the
tl chip ?

Manuel Bouyer <>
     NetBSD: 23 ans d'experience feront toujours la difference


text:
tech-kern archive

[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index][Old Index]

Re: "Rewriting kernfs and procfs" - GSoC'12

I have some progress. I submitted my proposal on google melange. There
are some points on which I would like some feedback:

- How is my schedule? Would it be better to increase/decrease the
allotted time somewhere? I have reserved a buffer in the end incase
there is some problem somewhere.
- Would it be better to add more detail anywhere?
- Is there any other information that is needed?

I have also gone through linux procfs code and added my comments in
the proposal.

On Wed, Mar 21, 2012 at 12:11 AM, David Laight <>
> On Tue, Mar 20, 2012 at 01:45:29PM +0100, Wolfgang Solfrank wrote:
> >
> > While I once tried that (quite long ago), it turned out that the buffering
> > the NFS client does somewhat conflicts the dynamic nature of /proc
> > and /kern.  However, maybe it could work better with NFSv3 or even NFSv4?
> At leastsome versions of nfs stat the enclosing directory - if it's
> time has changed it will invalidate the cached contents.
>        David
> --
> David Laight:

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Mainers celebrate Grandparents’ Day, urge respect for elders

Mainers celebrate Grandparents’ Day, urge respect for elders

It’s not always the most high-profile holiday on the calendar, but Grandparents’ Day (this Sunday, September 13th) is of particular importance for Maine, which has the oldest population of any state in the country.

This weekend, Mainers from across the state are taking the opportunity to recognize the contributions of their older family members and advocate for their well-being. This including urging the protection and expansion of Medicare and Social Security and promoting other policies to help Maine seniors age at home and with dignity.

Grandparents’ Day, a recognized federal holiday since 1978, is the brainchild of Marian McQuaid, a caregiver who wanted a day set aside to help remind people to honor their elders and recognize all they have to offer.

Senior-friendly policies being advocated for on this Grandparents’ Day include enhancing services that allow more seniors to age at home and giving credit through Social Security for those who work to care for family members.

Many families in Maine are currently struggling to ensure proper care for aging loved ones and far too often they also put their own retirement security in jeopardy. On average, caregivers lose about $140,000 in total Social Security benefits because they have to leave the workforce to provide care.

The day is also a good time to remember Second-District Representative Bruce Poliquin’s recent vote to privatize Medicare and urge state and federal leaders to do better.

Mainers are sharing their own thoughts and stories on these and other issues using the hashtag #GrandparentsDay on Twitter and Facebook. Photos of members of the Maine People’s Alliance with their Grandparents’ Day messages can be found on the MPA Facebook page.

This Sunday, be sure to call your grandparents… and then your member of Congress.

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Drew Gattine

Wells woman honored with portrait for work that often goes unacknowledged

Over the weekend, a new portrait was installed at the Whitney Galleries in Wells. It isn’t of a historical figure or a famous individual, but of a Mainer named Amy

Alliance for Retired Americans

Struggling seniors speak out for Question 4

Advocates for Maine seniors are backing the minimum wage increase on the ballot this November, and the campaign has launched its first TV ad highlighting the story of one of

war and peace

The Iran deal is political, and that’s OK

The Obama administration has negotiated a complicated, far-reaching international deal regarding Iran’s access to nuclear material. Now comes the hard part: dealing with Congress. Substantively, the deal is pretty good;


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Monday, May 17, 2010

Day #134/175 Days

I began something new today. Here is how our day went....

8am - School with Happy & Miss H
I decided to try Five in a Row. We're "rowing" The Story About Ping. It's interesting as I'm doing this with an almost three year old and a 6-1/2 year old but it seems to be working.

We put together the fronts of our notebooks. I found lapbooking elements for all the Five in a Row books over at Homeschool Share and I am adapting them for use with the kids.

Miss H is on the left & Happy's on the right.
I photocopied the cover of the book and had them add a colored picture to it as well.

We discussed geography and talked about the Yangtzhe River today. I had them color a small graphic for the flag of China and let them watch some videos on YouTube about ducks and birds used for fishing in China. We watched Elmo's Ducks and and Five Little Ducks plus birds fishing (just like it was mentioned in the book).

Here is a photo of the first page in their notebook:

Miss H's elements are open and Happy's are closed.

They both seem to really be liking this so I plan to continue and see how it goes. Homeschool Share makes it super easy to do this.

About 9am - Together School
  • Popcorn Prayer
  • Pledge of Allegience
  • America the Beautiful
  • Poem - almost got it - maybe one more week
  • Read Aloud
  • Matthew Chapter 23
  • Family Walk - "Mercy"
  • Hymn Study (to go along with FIAR) "Trust and Obey"
  • History reading
About 10:30am - Train Unit study with Conductor
~As Conductor has grown, so has his love of trains. Some little boys like them when they are little. They love Thomas the Tank Engine and as they grow, that love moves on to other things. Not Conductor. He lives, eats, and breathes trains. He has read through encyclopedias of trains that we have numerous times. He just loves them. I had bought an Amanda Bennett Unit Study on Trains last fall so I pulled that out to do with him. I think he really likes the one-on-one time with Mom. We sit at the table since we need the computer for most of it.

Each day has copywork and "WOW" words (Words of Wisdom) plus "Interesting People & Places" followed by "Read and Discover." The study came with notebooking pages as well so I printed off some and Conductor happily began writing out his copywork - yup, happily.

Then we moved on to the WOW words. Each word needs to be looked up in a dictionary and the definition written out. While there were some links to dictionaries on line - including the Websters 1828 one - I chose to have him use a regular book and used the time to teach him how to use it. He is doing fine with this as well. This is the only writing I ask of him - the copywork and the WOW words. I let him dictate the rest to me and I write it.

His "interesting person" today was James Watt so we created this page for his notebook:

I didn't have any special project lined up yet for Lego-Man but I will have that in place for tomorrow. The kids seem to be enjoying this way of schooling for now and so do I. We'll continue this until our special projects are done. And then re-evaluate.

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“Shoulder Tattoo”

The Shoulder Tattoo design is an arm with a tattoo. You can make the tattoo from a picture that is white everywhere you want skin to show, and dark where you want the tattoo.

This is an experimental gesture-based page. If you have trouble see a classic version of this page.

If you have trouble on an older computer, try using an alternative version.

This is a 400x300 design, with 800x600 available to subscribers.

Related designs

About this design

This design is by paulfitz. The design is made using Blender, a free and open source 3D animation suite.


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Hey, You. Let's update this.

Oh, hi there.
It's been a hot second, huh??  I know, I know... a 6-month hot second. I would say I'm sorry, but I'm not sorry. This little face has been keeping me busy.

Anyway, I could gush and go on and on about how life has changed and how wonderful it is to be a mom, but we'd be here all day. Maybe tomorrow too.  I did actually just post a 6 month "mom" update on Youtube a week ago so you can check that out here!
I'm just so super happy that you guys have been so supportive and I can't tell you how warm n' fuzzy I feel when you guys have such sweet things to say about Olivia. I mean, how could you not? ;)

So really I had a few moments today and decided to just go ahead and give the abandoned blog a little update and say "hi". I know I've never posted on here super regularly or had a big schedule here. It's just really been a place for sharing whenever I get some extra time or get in a particularly "bloggy" mood, but I really hate that I let it sit for so long. Thanks for sticking around!
As you guys know,  I always keep up with my YouTube channel regularly, so I always make it a priority to post at least 2 videos per week there (so definitely subscribe and check that out so you don't miss any updates). Since lil' bit came along, all my spare time is spent playing and feeding and cuddling and being mom.  Love that.

Just wanted to let you guys know that the blog hasn't been abandoned and that I have a few plans in the works for upcoming posts! I still want to share Olivia's "official" nursery reveal... SO many beautiful photos I'd love to post and share. Also, I have some home updates!  The home/decor posts really became my favorite types of posts to share here.
So I'm thinking I'll continue to do beauty videos over on YouTube (as always), and keep the blog for more personal posts, home stuff, and general whatever-ness.
Sound like a plan?

I really hope you all are doing amazing.  Thanks for reading! Love you guys!

  1. It's good to see you back on this blog thing. Your baby girl is just too precious.

  2. Oh my goodness, she is adorable!! :)

  3. Olivia is so adorable! I love your home decor posts on the blog so I'm looking forward to seeing some more of them when you have some spare time :o)

  4. Missed your posts here! xo

  5. You're back! no way! I follow a whopping 2 blogs, so I was pretty excited to see you made a new post! Looking forward to some more Tiffany house updates and baby updates of course!

  6. Good to see you back Tiffany. Long time follower! x

  7. Could she be any sweeter?! My god, she's precious. Congratulations Tiff and Brad :)
    Can't wait for those future home posts now! xx

  8. do you still have a PO box? I can't find it listed anywhere on your site

  9. So cute! She looks as gorgeous as you!! Besos xxxx

  10. She's precious! Glad to see a post on the blog!

  11. I just ADORE those photos....so precious ! lol :)
    Cant wait to see more of your posts here

  12. Awww, she is soooo cute, see her chubby cheeks, she must be a joy to just hold and cuddle. I've missed you for a second Tiffany *grin*. Great to have you back

    Lagos, Nigeria

  13. She's really so cute ♥
    Looking forward to the home/decor posts! I love your decor style!

  14. She's adorable! Being mom trumps blogging - enjoy it!

  15. she's so cute!!

  16. Olivia is so beautiful and absolutely darling.

  17. I follow your videos religiously, so I never felt "abandoned." It was a nice little surprise seeing this in my feed today. My favorite blog posts of yours were your home decor posts. You have the best taste!

  18. Awww so good to see Olivia and how much she's grown. She's absolutely adorable and I can see how much you are loving motherhood!

  19. Love your channel and blog! Your decorating style is fantastic, and I love seeing pics of your home. Videos on your home decor would be a big hit on YouTube, too. I'm sure!!!


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Friday, November 30, 2012

Photo Book

I take literally thousands of pictures throughout the year.  I saw on another blog, Enjoying the Small Things, a genius idea.  She makes up a photo book every year for her girls.  You can pick and choose your favorite pics and add some savvy commentary or informational blurb to the pages.  You can even add titles and dates to the binding and customize the front and back cover.  Of course, I made mine on Shutterfly.  I waited until there was a 50% off photo book coupon code available and for about $60 I have a year of memories packaged in a 12 X 12 hard cover photo book!

You can check out the book I made below:

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text:
Successful Canine Training With Good Reinforcement

There is nothing wrong with becoming unsure of how to properly train your canine. Couple of individuals other than professionals actually do know. Researching coaching your canine was the initial step in the correct path. The subsequent tips and methods will assist you train your dog rapidly and efficiently.

Wouldn't you instead see a pup in that situation given to an proprietor who has the time and energy to give them the love and attention they need to prosper? But what's the very best way to promote or give a dog up for adoption? And if you're looking for a pup, how do you discover one?

Moaning and crying are inevitable. You can select to ignore, however, can final for hrs! The correction is your best option. Correct with a business, does not imply "quiet" or "Lay Down".

When your dog starts pulling in a specific direction give his leash a little tug and begin strolling in the get more info reverse path of where he is pulling you.

Basic instructions considered by numerous professionals to be crucial are educating your canine to walk by your aspect, sit, stay, down, up and come when known as. Understanding the significance of positive reinforcement will make educating dog obedience to your dog a great deal simpler. It ought to be the foundation of any quality german shepherd training plan.

1- Schedule and routine are important. In most instances your routine doesn't need to be set in stone but there are certain things that should occur at important factors all through the working day. Your pet should generally be fed at certain times, go to bed at particular occasions, get walks at particular occasions, etc. Having a schedule to depend on is useful and numerous of our pet sitter clients will have us come to their homes on a routine to make certain the animal is correctly taken treatment of.

Honestly, if you're willing to invest 3 or four hrs daily sitting down in front of your Pc making backlinks, then maybe you don't need this software program. On the other hand, if you want to Conserve TIME and build high quality backlinks to your websites immediately, then perhaps it's really worth to make investments in this software.

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15 April 2017

happy Easter

I wish you all a happy and peaceful Easter weekend.
I am making cards for #diypostcardswap .
I made gelliplate prints with leaves from outside which I found along the road.
After that I did some stamping and a bit scribling or drawing with watercolor pencils.
Now I have to print backsides and glue them on and wait for addresses. The deadline is April 24. If you think you like to join click on the label of iHanna in the sidebar.

Ineke said...

Wat een prachtige kaarten Ati.
Ik wens je fijne paasdagen.
Lieve groetjes, Ineke

Eva said...

Dear Ati!
Your cards are so pretty and nice!
What a great job with the gelli plate and the leaves.
Love your cards!!♥
Eva from Austria

iHanna said...

Thanks for joining the swap and sharing your wonderful postcads Ati! Happy spring!


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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The Confidential Life of Eugenia Cooper Blog Tour

The third book I am featuring this week is The Confidential Life of Eugenia Cooper. I haven't yet been able to read this one, so I thought I would just post the summary since it is the blog tour week. When I am able to read it, however, you can be sure I'll let you know what I think!

The future is clearly mapped out for New York socialite Eugenia “Gennie” Cooper, but she secretly longs to slip into the boots of her favorite dime-novel heroine and experience just one adventure before settling down. When the opportunity arises, Gennie jumps at the chance to experience the Wild West, but her plans go awry when she is drawn into the lives of silver baron Daniel Beck and his daughter and finds herself caring for them more than is prudent–especially as she’s supposed to go back to New York and marry another man.

As Gennie adapts to the rough-and-tumble world of 1880s Colorado , she must decide whether her future lies with the enigmatic Daniel Beck or back home with the life planned for her since birth. The question is whether Daniel’s past–and disgruntled miners bent on revenge–will take that choice away from her.
If this book sounds interesting to you, you can pick up a copy at Random House.

Also, if you would like to blog for books published by Waterbrook Press you can check out their program right here!

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Monday, March 21, 2011

A Real Suzy Homemaker

I saw her on the sidewalk as soon as I got out of the car.  She was on her side, half buried by a stack of old Christmas lights and a moldy shower curtain.  I think it was the glint of avocado tin that tipped me off. That was a color I had come to know and hate back in the 60's when they even made refrigerators in that deadly shade of green.  I circled the box cautiously and in an attempt to seem disinterested, picked up the Christmas lights.  I turned them over in my hand, as if giving them a serious appraisal, and stretched my neck around to get a better look at what was under them in the box.  I could see the turquoise accents and little early space era dials all done up in Mrs. Robinson plastic facing up towards me.  A furtive upward glance told me no one had noticed my interest in the box and it's mystery contents.

I made my way up the walkway towards the house, stopping to look at a row of grocery store dishes, a stack of Barney video tapes and several trashy paperbacks, all the while, using the hairs on the back of my head to monitor any movement behind me in the direction of that box.  I kept reminding myself to remain cool, aloof and unconcerned.

I took a deep breath and feigned some mild curiosity while approaching the owner of the box.  "How much do you want for the stuff in the box at the end of the drive?" I asked, while appearing to be enthralled by the Barney videos on the table in front of me.

Shopping at garage sales is tricky.  You don't want to seem too eager or too rich.  It's best to wear your blue jeans, shop with a take it or leave it attitude and hope for the best. With a little haggling, the owner and I came to an agreement and a price I could embrace.  I headed down the driveway, saying thanks and reminding her what wonderful drop cloths old shower curtains make and saying you can never have enough Christmas lights.... then went straight  home to clean my beautiful Topper, 1968 Suzy Homemaker Easy Bake Oven which would make a wonderful kitchen night light and perhaps some brownies in the process.  She is in my shop, just waiting for the right kitchen to compliment.  I love her, but after living through the 60's, I vowed I'd never have another avocado appliance in my home.

  1. makes me think of my easy back oven I got in 1969..I have it in the basement in the original box..oh the fun I had!

  2. I had one in the late 60's too! Brings back memories!


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11833 Manchaca Road, Austin, TX 78748

Manchaca Service Center has been servicing Austin, TX for 30 years, offering full service auto repair for all vehicles. Wanting you to be completely comfortable with what you vehicle’s needs are, we will explain everything to you in detail. With us, you can rest assured that your vehicle will be fixed properly, as we are a company who strives on integrity.  And we always offer no commitment free estimates on all services!

Our Services
At Manchaca Service Center, we strive to provide the best service and auto repair in South Austin every day. Here are a few of the specialized services we offer:

Oil Changes
Engine oil is the lifeblood of your vehicle. Making sure to change your oil every 3-5,000 miles is crucial in maintaining the health of your engine.

At Manchaca Service Center, we always provide the highest quality fluids that enable your car to perform at its optimal level. Our team is also happy to complete other services during your oil change, in order to make your visit as fast and beneficial as possible.

Tune Ups

Tune ups should be performed every 30K, 60K, and 90K miles.  They should be done more frequently after exceeding 100K miles. Bring your vehicle to Manchaca Service Center to help prevent future costly repairs as well as keep your vehicle running like new!

Engine Repair
Every vehicle has a unique engine. Our repair technicians are familiar with all makes and models. With all the services we offer, you can be confident your engine will be fixed quickly and correctly the first time – and to your satisfaction.

Computer Diagnostics
Sensors in your car are designed to send signals to your vehicle’s computer to alert you when there is a problem. Using our state-of-the-art technology and equipment, our auto repair technicians can diagnose and fix problems, no matter what make or model vehicle you drive.

Air Conditioning
In Austin, it is necessary to have a working A/C unit.  Odd odors or lack of power could indicate a variety of problems that require service. Our A/C repair experts can easily diagnose and fix problems with your air conditioner, so you can get back out in the heat and enjoy a comfortable and refreshing drive!

Electrical Systems – Batteries / Alternators
Having the latest diagnostic equipment and modern technology, our auto repair technicians can quickly evaluate and fix all of your electrical system needs.  Services from battery replacement, ignition service, alternator repair, and everything in between!

Brake Repair
Brakes are one of the most important features of your vehicle. Manchaca Service Center has been providing reliable brake repair in Austin for over 30 years. From pad and shoe replacements to anti-lock brake sensors, and everything in between, at Manchaca Service Center, you can count on our repair team having you back on the road quickly and safely.

Scheduled Maintenance
At Manchaca Service Center, we provide comprehensive maintenance to help keep your car looking and running like new for years. Regularly scheduled maintenance with us goes beyond oil changes and tune ups. Our technicians’ attention to detail and expertise ensure that nothing on your vehicle is overlooked in our hands. We also take the time to get to know your vehicle so that our Austin repair experts can recommended services that best complement your needs.

  • “Check Engine Light” Diagnostics
  • State Inspections
  • Oil & Filter Change
  • AC Service & Repair
  • Tune ups
  • Electrical System
  • Batteries
  • Starters
  • Alternators
  • Exhaust Systems
  • Mufflers
  • Catalytic Converters
  • Power Steering
  • Power Steering Pumps
  • Power Steering Hoses
  • Rack & Pinion
  • Brakes
  • Wrecker Service
  • Cooling System
  • Water Pumps
  • Radiators
  • Hoses
  • Timing Belts
  • Thermostats
  • Fuel Systems
  • Fuel Pumps
  • Fuel Injector Service
  • Fuel Filters
  • Extended Warranty Service
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  • Courtesy Inspections
  • Scheduled Maintenance
  • Fluid Services
  • Windshield Wiper Replacements
  • Filter Replacements

Manchaca Service Center Tire Rotation

Tire Services

  • Tire Rotation
  • Tire Mounting
  • Wheel Alignments
  • Tire Balancing
  • Flat Tire Repair

Transmission & Engine Services

  •  Engine Service
  • Transmission Service, Repair, & Replacement

Give us a call today (512) 280-0685 and find out what makes Manchaca Service Center drivers’ first choice for auto repair in Austin, TX!


text: One of Toledo's hidden secrets, the Mango Tree serves fine steaks and seafood. Their menu is one that can't be contended with. This small, but quality restaurant off Reynolds road, just north of Airport Highway, has a classy atmosphere, is known for their Mango Chicken, Grilled Lamb Chops, and their flavorful Steak Montreal, marinated over-night in a special seasoning. Great for lunch and dinner, with early bird menu available.


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Free Language Translator 1.6.1

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Free Accent Translator appliance was advised to be a desktop accent translator appliance application the Google adaptation service. It adds added appearance to the absolute account and addresses some of its shortcomings. Open a argument certificate or adhesive some text, baddest the “To” and “From” languages, bang on the "Translate" and baddest one of the options from the menu. You can actualize your custom concordance to actual the online adaptation and save them for added use if application the “Translate and use Custom Dictionary” card option. In adjustment to add an access to your Custom Dictionary, baddest the argument to be corrected, appropriate bang in the adaptation console and baddest “Add to Custom Dictionary”. You will be able to accomplish added changes manually by accounting into the adaptation console while tracking the synchronized aboriginal panel. The cachet bar can affectation an alternative empiric superior of translation. Selecting a abate page admeasurement increases the adaptation time a little bit, but at the aforementioned time, for ample bulk of text, it can advance adaptation accurateness and synchronization amid the aboriginal and adaptation panels. You can aswell set the acclimatization of the panels from the admixture box on the cachet bar. Finally, baddest the translated argument and archetype into the clipboard, appropriate bang in the adaptation console and accept “Copy Selection”, or just save it as a book application the “Save File” figure in the toolbar.

· nag screen

What's New in This Release:
· Forced a different instance for the translator on any machine
· to abstain assiduous abstracts corruption.

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If u need a KeyGen, serial number and crack, please used Craagle 1.91

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Manifesting Really Isn't Hard Work At All

law of attraction manifesting"Who Else Wants To Discover My 100% Guaranteed Step-By-Step 'Magic' Formula To Manifest More Money, Love & Good Health Than
You Ever Dreamed Possible!"

Here's The True "Secrets" Of The Manifestation Process, How This Proven Formula Works, And How You Can Put It To Work For YOU.

From the desk of Gary Evans:

 manifesting-facebook  manifesting-twitter  manifesting-youtube

Dear Miracle Seeker,

You're about to discover what really happens when someone begins to apply the so called "secrets" of the universe.

This is a real story... and I can guarantee you its genuine, because I'm the guy who's practiced for months on end perfecting this sacred skill.

It doesn't take long to practice once you've got the formula, but some people completely turn off in disbelief when I talk about...

Making Thoughts Manifest Into Reality

manifest miracleIt's actually happening to all of us, every single day, but just without our conscious awareness and knowledge of it.

You've probably heard from other guru's that you can manifest your reality by just thinking about what you want.

But before we delve into the "secrets" and determine whether this is right or not, we need to set something straight.

If I were you, I'd be thinking...

Isn't This A Bunch Of Hype?

And you're absolutely right to ask that question.

I was skeptical too when I first saw the DVD, "The Secret". But if I hadn't seen a real correlation between my thoughts and what was coming into my life then I wouldn't believe it either. In other words... I know exactly how you feel.

To help put your mind at rest I'm going to prove to you that this stuff works and I'm going to talk you through my own personal experiences with the Law of Attraction. I'm going to tell you exactly what you need to do to make thoughts become tangible.

Here's The Real "Secret" Behind "The Secret"

You may have been led to believe that you can just lay on your back thinking about stuff and then you'll see it appear in your life in the next few days or weeks.

I'm here to tell you that if you do that, nothing will happen.

Heck, you've probably already figured that out and tried it already.
I know I did.

There's an awful lot more to visualizing that you may not have been shown. In fact visualizing is just a tool that we can use to help us manifest stuff, but it's not why a manifestation will happen.

You don't even need to visualize what you want for it to become a reality.

Whether you want to manifest a dollar or one million dollars, the process is exactly the same...

feel good manifestingWhen You Feel Good... Good Things Are Attracted To You

Sounds simple, huh?

Here is the manifestation process.

The first thing that happens in the process is that you have to ask for what you want. You're actually doing this all of the time without realizing it.

When you open up a letter with a bill, and when you feel miserable about having another bill, you're actually asking for "more money". Cool, huh?

So you don't actually have to ask for anything specific. You've already done it, without you probably knowing about it.

Next, the universe will answer your request. The universe (or you could call it the Law of Attraction) will begin to match you up with what you've been asking for. It begins to set into motion new experiences for you relating to what you've just asked for. So if you're asking for more money, the Universe is lining it up for you in a future experience.

Obviously, this isn't your work! In fact you haven't had to do anything so far, as asking is automatic and so is the Universe's job of answering.

You may be thinking that...

"This Sounds Too Good To Be True!"

You're right! It is too good to be true and it's way too easy.

But we're not done yet, because there's one final step you must go through in order to make this stuff work for you.

You then must become aligned with what it is you've been asking for and receive your stuff!

This is where your work is.


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Showing posts with label Bangalore Escorts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bangalore Escorts. Show all posts

Tuesday, 22 March 2016

How I Enjoyed the Companionship of the Escorts in Bangalore?

My job profile and the Bangalore escorts companionship in winter

Friends, let me tell you something about myself before I narrate how I enjoyed the company of the very dependable escorts in Bangalore! I am employed in a multinational group manufacturing more than hundred category of medicines beneficial for the different age group of people. The products are marketed not only within the country but also in the countries of the varied continents.

The medicines are of good quality and have good hold in the Indian market. I take care of the business development department and handle the promotional operations. I keep on traveling from one state to another and attend the business related meetings with the distributors, retailers, and other business associates giving their valuable contribution in the growth and progress of the group.

I have been a great fan of the females in the South India on account of their irresistible qualities. I had a wish to enjoy their valuable partnership as a dating partner at least once. I got the golden chance last month as there was the company tour planned for the business expansion. I left for the booked hotel in Bangalore and made myself comfortable. The trip was for three days and I kept myself busy in the different promotional activities and completed the planned meetings with the different related business promoters. The last day I was free after 3 pm and decided to hire the Bangalore escorts services.
 I thought to check the different sources online and so I took my personal computer system and explored the details of the various service providers.

 Hiring the independent escorts services in Bangalore

I visited the various online sources and came across a good number of the agencies and  t  escorts services providers in the city Bangalore. I noticed that each one of them had their own private and official website for the sake of the business promotion along with the advertisement purposes.

After going through the websites and profiles of about twenty five provider of independent independent Bangalore escorts services in Bangalore, my mind stuck on the bio data of the very mind blasting entertainer named Manisha Kansal.  I called up and booked her full night erotic fun services.

The physical meeting with the sizzling Bangalore Escorts

I waited with great eagerness to meet her and have a look on her impressive celeb personality. After half an hour, she arrived and my wait ended. The room bell rang and I happily went to welcome her.

A very impressive and celebrity like female was standing wearing an eye-catching ethnic wear complimented with simple jewels matching her outfits. With very pleasing smile she asked for me and I got her in with the broad smile on my face. We had some drinks and fruits after the formal introduction. We kissed each other on cheeks and lips. I lost my control on my mind after just a touch.

She made me have the fun of the pleasurable acts on bed in her company like Whirlpool, Intimate shaving, Scat (give), Scat (receive) extra charge, Squirting extra charge, Swingersclub, Foot Fetish, Fetish, Golden Shower (give), Golden Shower (receive), Leather/Latex/PVC, Mistress (hard), Sauna, Handjob, DUO, Fingering, Trampling, Footjob Private Video with extra charge, Oral (receive), and more energetic rides one after the another.

We together had great fun and I liked her involvement very much. The treatment that she provided to me was incomparable and sensational. I became the fan of the Bangalore escorts services. I thanked Ojaswi after giving her an attractive gift set and with heavy heart we parted. Thus, I enjoyed ceaseless gladness in the company of the Bangalore escort.

Bangalore independent escorts | Independent Bangalore escorts | Bangalore call girl


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Thursday, April 2, 2015

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So i tried to make my first Mouth appliers :)

This Loud Mouth- Kissy Lips are so adorable. I never thought, i will wear mesh lips. But i really like them. They are mod and you can slightly change the shape as you like!

This HUD contains skintones  matching  [ iren ] skins.

skin- Galina by [ iren ]
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text:
Artist´s Statement:

Painting with glass is similar to drawing ... it is like the first kiss:quiet, clean, light and it carries within the deepest emotions.
If you like glass, you will love beads, and if you love beads .... hope you will love my Shop ♥

Springflowers - Color your life beautiful ♥

(Some for ebay, some a custom order and some ... made to order, thank you.  If you like some - feel free to contact me on FB or email)

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November 16, 2009

Recipe: Chunky Chocolate Brownies

For years I was content with box brownies even though I refused to use most boxes because pure, natural scratch ingredients have a superior taste. The brownies I had eaten that were made from scratch were too cakey and not fudgy, and so many recipes call for baking chocolate that I don't always have on hand. And then I discovered what a brownie from scratch should be with this Southern Living recipe

The brownie is thick, rich and gooey and perfectly chocolatey, almost as good as the ones my dad brings home from the former-bakery-owner that just so happens to be his boss' wife. Better yet, the recipe calls for chocolate chips (semi-sweet, of course) and a few other basic ingredients and wasn't too involved to make. I can still enjoy a good box brownie, but the greater concentration of chocolate makes these far richer and more satisfying for a craving for a decadent dessert. The only way up from there is serving it a la mode and maybe adding a little peppermint extract for minty brownies the next time.

Chunky Chocolate Brownies

2  tablespoons  water

3/4  cup  granulated sugar

1/3  cup  butter

1  (11.5-ounce) package semisweet chocolate chunks, divided

2  large eggs

1  teaspoon  vanilla extract

3/4  cup  all-purpose flour

1/4  teaspoon  salt

1/2  cup  chopped hazelnuts or pecans, toasted (I leave the nuts out and go for the pure chocolate.)

Combine first 3 ingredients in a 3 1/2-quart saucepan. Bring to a boil over medium heat, stirring constantly. Remove from heat, and stir in 1 cup chocolate chunks until smooth. Let cool 5 minutes. Add eggs, 1 at a time, stirring just until blended. Stir in vanilla.

Combine flour and salt; stir in remaining chocolate chunks and hazelnuts. Stir flour mixture into chocolate mixture in saucepan. Spread into a lightly greased 9-inch square pan.

Bake at 325° for 23 to 28 minutes. Cool in pan on a wire rack. Dust with powdered sugar. Cut into squares.

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Fowler Field
Tonasket, Washington

FAA NFDC Information Effective 56-day cycle 04/27/2017 - 6/22/2017

Ops Comms Services Owner Runways IFR Procs Current NOTAMs Remarks

FAA Identifier:02WN (Zero-Two-Whiskey-November)
Lat/Lng: 48.7458333333, -119.318611111
48-44-45.0000N, 119-19-07.0000W
Estimated by OWNER on 06/07/2006
Elevation: 2150 feet Estimated by OWNER on 06/07/2006
Magnetic Variation: [15E (2017)]
Sectional: SEATTLE
From City: 6nm NE of Tonasket

Use: Private
Ownership: Privately owned
Activation: 09/2006
Control Tower: no
ARTCC: Seattle Center (ZSE)
FSS: Seattle FSS (SEA)
Wind Indicator: Unlighted
Landing Fee: no

Based Aircraft

Total: 0

Annual Operations

Total: 0

Owner: Ron Fowler
478 Airport Rd
Lopez Island, Wa 98261
Manager: Ron Fowler
478 Airport Rd
Lopez Island, Wa 98261

Runways: 13/31

Runway 13/31

Length: 1500 feet
Width: 30 feet
Surface: Natural Soil
End 13 End 31
Objects:   Trees
Objects affecting Navigable Airspace (CFR part 77): Utility runway with a visual approach Utility runway with a visual approach
Object Height:   20' AGL
Object Distance:   80' Along centerline

Additional Remarks

This information is current as of the date at the top of the page. These pages are valid for all US airports, based on information from FAA National Flight Data Center. Weather information is provided based on AvnWx Data Sources. NOTAM information is from FAA's NAIMES data portal.

As with most information on this website, this page is generated based on FAA data, with automatic translations done via computer. You can also directly read the A/FD via the green icon link at the top of the page, which is the FAA text, and sometimes provides a different translation of codes. Please email me (using link at top-right of this page) if you see information which is confusing, misleading, or wrong....Or have suggestions for additions/changes.

Comments from the user community are clearly noted as such this page, are for informational purposes only, may be wrong and/or out-of-date, and must not be used as a sole source for critical decision making. See Privacy Policy and Conditions of Use.


text:
Evenflo ExerSaucer TripleFun offers moms and dads a safe alternative to walkers. With a variety of age suitable toys that help your baby achieve crucial developmental turning points. With rock, spin and bounce actions that offer your infant with lots of exercise to reinforce legs, back and neck muscles. Offering parents extended use with two stages of use and simple conversion, your infant can use this product to play and find out from newborn to 24 months. Exersaucer and activity table in one system supplies for extended usage as your child grows. Mobility folds significantly smaller that makes travel and storage easy. 11 age-appropriate toys and enjoyable music aid baby attain 10 developmental milestones such as fine motor skills, object exploration, tactile development and more.
3-position height adjustment grows with child seat locks in multiple positions.
Removable, machine washable pad.
This item is no more available in stores. All items work, just need brand-new batteries. No playmat is consisted of in this one.

$40.00 OBO - major offers only.

phone seller Be the first to review this item
 |  Address:  Marathon, Florida

Copyright © 2017 Americanlisted.com, All Rights Reserved.
Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners.


text:
2) Duopoly under Uncertainty

1) Introduction

The model of duopoly under uncertainty is based in Dixit & Pindyck book (1994, chapter 9, last section), but with some practical adaptation:

This is an option-game application. See other related applications in the option-game webpage.

For a software related to this theory, go to the Duopoly under Uncertainty Spreadsheet webpage, from the real options software section.

OBS: This webpage is under revision, in order to consider many additional aspects and a more rigorous discussion on equilibrium strategies. The revision is coming soon!

2) Exponential Inverse Demand Curve

The market of a generic product has (inverse) demand curve given by P = f(q), where P is the price and q is the demanded quantity. Consider an exponential demand curve with parameter e which is a kind of elasticity.

This type of inverse demand curve has the some advantages over other more popular inverse demand curves. For example, the linear inverse demand curve can lead to negative prices for high output production.

A good alternative is the iso-elastic inverse demand curve, which in the simplest format is given by: P = 1 / Q. However, iso-elastic demand has the following drawback: the total revenue = P.Q is constant, so that the industry (monopoly or oligopoly in tacit collusion) in presence of variable operational costs will find optimal reduce the production to near zero (with prices going to infinite) in order to reduce the operational cost without decreasing the revenue! This cause mathematical problems.
One solution is analyzed in the interesting paper of Agliari & Puu (2002), where they suggest the modified iso-elastic inverse demand curve: P = 1 / (Q + W), so that the hyperbola is translated to a new position intersecting the ordinate-axis - so that the maximum price is 1/W when production tends to zero.

Suppose that the factor Y is uncertain, so the inverse exponential demand curves can be in different places along the time. The following figure shows two demand curves for different values of Y.

Modelling the factor Y uncertainty with a lognormal diffusion process, let Y follow a geometric Brownian motion (GBM):

dY/Y = a dt + s dz

The current demand function is known but the future demand function P = Y D(q) is uncertain. The uncertainty is modeled with a GBM for the oscillations in the demand factor Y. Its current value is known (Y = Y0).

3) Leader and Follower Duopoly under Uncertainty

Let us examine a leader-follower duopoly under uncertainty, extending the Smets' model presented in the Dixit & Pindyck book.

For example, suppose there is a duopoly in a telecommunications market.
Consider one small city with telecom investment opportunity. Both firms, leader and follower, have a perpetual option to invest in that market with stochastic demand.

Firms have rational expectations and maximize value under demand uncertainty, expressed in the factor Y.
The current demand function is known but the future demand function P = Y D(q) is uncertain and modeled with a GBM (see item 2 above).

Let we allow different unitary investment costs for firms, so the leader has a cost I1 per unity of product and the follower has a cost I2 per unity of product. So, I extend the model to permit cost differentiation between the players.

The valuation is performed backwards, first you should first calculate the follower value, supposing that the leader already entered.
Given that follower behavior, the leader value is calculated. This means that the leader value will be affected by the expected entry of the follower (when the demand rise until the threshold Y2).

The Follower Value

The follower has a perpetual option to entry in the market, producing q2, and waiting the demand increase until reach a threshold level Y2 where is optimal the immediate investment of the follower (threshold for the follower).

The demand curve is for the industry, so consider the sum of the both firms production, that is,

P = Y e- e q = Y e- e (q1 + q2)

Suppose that the price P is net of operational expenses, so that P can be interpreted as a margin (profit).
To simplify, imagine that the present value of the operating project V is the result of a perpetual flow from this profit P:
V = q2 . P/d, where d is the dividend yield or the rate of cash flow distribution given by:
d = r - a

With the presented premisses we can calculate the threshold Y2 and the follower value F2, for a perpetual option:

If Y > Y2 the follower value is:

F2 = q2 (Y e - e (q1 + q2))/d - q2 I2

If Y < Y2, the follower will wait until the demand factor reach for the first time the threshold level Y2. The expected time to occur that is called first hitting time T* of the stochastic process of Y.
When this happen, the follower will get the same anterior value for F2, but discounting with the rate r, since this will happen in T*.

The expected value for the discount factor E[e- r T*] is given below:

E[e- r T*] = (Y/Y2) b1

See the Appendix A, Proof for the First Expectation for the demonstration and details.

So, the follower value is:

A typical call option value chart represents the follower value.

The Leader Value

The leader will, for a certain time (until T*), remain acting alone in the market, without the follower. So, the demand curve is:

P = Y e- e q = Y e- e (q1)

After the time T* the leader profit will be shared with the follower that, entering at this instant, will change the demand curve to:
P = Y e- e q = Y e- e (q1 + q2)

The value of the expected cash flow, discounted by the rate r until the moment that the follower enters, added to the expected present value after the follower entry, gives the leader value F1:

If Y > Y2 : F1 = q1 Y e- e (q1 + q2))/ d - q1 I1

If Y < Y2, the leader knows that the follower will wait until the demand shock Y reach the threshold Y2. The value of the leader is given by the present value of the expected cash-flow producing alone in the market until T* plus the expected cash-flow after the follower entry at T*, less the investment cost to become a leader. This is given by the expression below:

Is necessary the first hitting time concept to calculate the expectations (for the expectation of the integral, see the Appendix B "Proof for the Second Expectation" and for the other expectation, see Appendix A).
By substituting the results from the appendixes (and remembering d = r - a) we get:

Leader Threshold Y1

If the firms are equal (same cost) and if becoming leader doesn't mean a larger market share (same q), we have the case analyzed in Dixit & Pindyck chapter 9.
In this case the threshold value Y1 is given by the point that both firms are indifferent to assume the leader or follower role. This happen when F1(Y1) = F2(Y1) provided that Y1 < Y2 (because at Y2 again the leader and follower values are equal). Of course, use the F2 equation for Y < Y2.
Equaling these two equations, F1(Y1) = F2(Y1), we get a nonlinear equation for the threshold Y1. Use the Newton-Raphson method to find the root Y1 or other methods (like the "goal seek" facility from Excel).
The following picture shows the leader and follower values and the entry thresholds:

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The above chart is built with homogeneous firms in the sense of same unitary cost I and producing the same quantity (the firms have the same market share of 50%).
This is very similar to the chart presented in Dixit & Pindyck (1994, p.311).

In case of first move advantage in the sense that the leader obtains a larger market share, the threshold Y1 is given by the point that each firm is indifferent between the leader and follower roles, but this time at Y1 the value of leader producing q1 > q2 is equal to the value of the follower that (probably) will produce in the future a lower quantity q2.
That is, F1(Y1, q1) = F2(Y1, q2).

The chart below presents this case of different quantities or different market shares. In this case the leader gets a higher market share and produces q1 = 15,000 units, whereas the follower produces q2 = 10,000 units.

The leader and follower points are as before, but when the follower enters the leader value is higher because his/her higher market share.
Note also that, with both in the market, the inclination of value line of leader is higher than the follower. This means that when the demand rises, the leader value grows more than the follower value. But when the demand value decreases, the leader valuer drops faster than the follower.

Note also that in order to produce a larger quantity the leader investment is larger because the larger capacity demands more investment (remember that the leader investment = I1 q1). Hence the threshold Y1 can be larger than the previous case.
Here is not allowed incremental investment in capacity. If we allow an option to expand production, the leader could invest in a small capacity at lower threshold Y1 in the first stage, with the option to expand the production at a later moment (but the follower could invest before the leader exercise of the option to expand). This is a more complex case, which is left for a future extension.

Let us examine the case of different costs between the players but with the same market share. Suppose I1 = 1500, lower than I2 = 2000, so that there is a competitive advantage for the first firm.

In this case the leader will be the firm with the lower cost, because the point of indifference between leader and follower roles for the firm with lower cost Y1(1) is lower than the point of indifference for the firm with higher cost Y1(2). In this case, the firm with lower cost doesn't need to invest at Y1(1) because the threat of the other firm entering the market is believable only at the level Y1(2).
The entry threshold Y* for the firm with lower cost will be some point in the interval: Y1(1) < Y* < Y1(2).

The chart below present this case of different costs and same market shares.

In the above chart the firms produce the same quantity q1 = q2 = 10,000 units.

Let us allow both different market shares and different costs. The chart below shows this case.

The final question is to set the optimal quantities q1 and q2 for the leader and follower.
For the Stackelberg equilibrium, the leader commit a production level q1 and the follower reacts according firm 2 reaction curve function q*2(q1).

There is a discussion if the Stackelberg equilibrium is the most likely outcome or if it is the Cournot-Nash equilibrium.
Stackelberg outcome is possible if we assume a immutable capacity commitment by the leader. However, if the game continues it is not Nash equilibrium because there exists an incentive for the leader to reduce its production in order to maximize profit. After this, the follower will react in the same way, until reaching the Cournot-Nash equilibrium (see the Appendix of the asymmetric duopoly webpage for a chart and additional issues).
Fudenberg & Tirole textbook (Game Theory, pp.74-76) points out that there is a problem of "time consistency" with the Stackelberg equilibrium, because the leader quantity in Stackelberg is not a best response for the follower production. In short, also in timing games with one firm entering before, the Cournot outcome is the most likely equilibrium.

So, let us assume that the most likely equilibrium is the Cournot-Nash outcome. The problem beconmes:

The follower maximize the profit given q1; and
The leader maximize profit given q2 = f(q1).

The follower profit is:

p2 = (q2 (Y e- e(q1 + q2))/ d) - I2 q2

By taking the partial derivative of the follower profit in relation to q2, and equaling to zero in order to get the optimal production q2, gives:

(e- e(q1 + q2) Y (1 - e q2)/d) - I2 = 0

The value of q2 is given for the above non-linear equation. The solution can be found by an iterative process.
Note that the value of q2 is a function of the stochastic factor Y.

Now is necessary to calculate the leader optimal quantity q1. This is done by looking the reaction curve q2 = f(q1).

p1 = (q1 Y e- e(q1 + q2))/ d) - I1 q1

Where q2 is given for the non-linear equation presented before, that is function of q1.

The solution is to find the maximum profit p1 by choosing q1.
One solution method is: in the calculus of optimal, for each q1 the value of q2 is calculated by the non-linear equation. With these values is calculated a profit value p1. By calculating several profits for each q1, is easy to choose the higher one.

In this way are calculated the leader and follower values under Cournot-Nash equilibrium for a given level of demand Y.
Things become more complicated if we invest in excess capacity in order to get the option to adjust the production output q1 to the oscillations in the demand level Y. This interesting complication is left for a future update.....

A) Proof for the First Expectation

In this appendix I prove the expectation E[e- r T*] = (Y/Y2) b1 by following the appendix in the chapter 9 of Dixit & Pindyck textbook, but including some intermediate steps not showed in that book.
To make more general the notation, let the threshold Y2 = Y*.

Suppose an expected discount factor in continuous time, with a generic (exogenous) discount rate r:

f(Y) = E[e- r t]

Denoting the first hitting time as T* (first time that Y is equal or larger than Y*), here representing when the option to invest will be optimally exercised, the expected discounted payoff from T* to current date is exactly the current value of the option to invest. Assuming that the current Y < Y* and by choosing an interval dt sufficiently small that hitting the threshold Y* in the next short time interval dt is an unlike event, the problem restarts from a new level (Y + dY). Therefore we have the dynamic programming-like recursion expression:

f (Y) = e- r dt E [ f (Y + dY) | Y] = e- r dt { f(Y) + E [ df(Y) ] }

By noting that:
(a) Y follows a geometric Brownian motion with drift a and volatility s; and
(b) Using the Itô's Lemma for expanding df (Y), and using the subscripts to denote derivatives we have:

df = fY (a Y dt + s Y dz) + 0.5 fYY (s2 Y2 dt) = fY a Y dt + fY s Y dz + 0.5 fYY s2 Y2 dt

Note that we are supposing the infinite time horizon (perpetual option) case so that the variable time is not included in the Itô's Lemma.
By substituting df into the previous equation and by noting that E[dz] = 0, and letting e- r dt = 1 - rdt for a very small dt, we get:

f (Y) = (1 - rdt) { f + fY a Y dt + 0.5 fYY s2 Y2 dt }

With a few algebra (remember dt2 is zero) the reader can find out the following differential equation:

0.5 s2 Y2 fYY + a Y fY - r f = 0

Where the subscripts denote derivatives. The general solution is:

f (Y) = A1 Yb1 + A2 Yb2

Where b1 and b2 are respectively the positive and the negative roots of the standard quadratic characteristic equation from the differential equation (see an instructive discussion of the characteristic equation in chapter 5, section 2.A, of Dixit & Pindyck book).

Applying two boundary conditions: as Y approximates to the threshold Y*, T* is probable to be small and the discount factor f(Y) close to 1, so f(Y*) = 1. When Y is close to zero, T* is likely to be large and so the discounted factor close to zero, therefore f(0) = 0 (note: alternatively, I think is possible to see Y = 0 as an absorbing barrier, so when Y tends to zero, T* tends to infinite or there is no finite time for Y to reach the threshold from Y = 0).
With these results, we can see that A1 = (1/Y*)b1 and A2 = 0.
Therefore the solution for the expected discount factor is:

f(Y) = E[e- r T*] = (Y/Y*)b1

Where Y is the initial value of the stochastic variable (that is at t = 0).
The parameter b1 is given by the positive root of the fundamental quadratic equation (see Dixit & Pindyck):

B) Proof for the Second Expectation

We want to prove the following result of the expectation below (defined by the function g(Y)), being T* the first time that the stochastic process (GBM) of Y reaches the threshold level Y*.

Second Expectation (Dixit & Pindyck, appendix chapter 9)

In the expectation of the integral, the main difference - when comparing with the first expectation - is that in the interval between 0 and dt there exists a dividend like profit p given by the value of the integral in this time interval:

Calculating the integral, we get:

Assuming that currently Y < Y* and by choosing an interval dt sufficiently small that hitting the threshold Y* in the next short time interval dt is an unlike event, the problem restarts from a new level (Y + dY). Therefore we have the dynamic programming-like recursion expression - this time including the profit or dividend-like term p(Y):

g(Y) = p(Y) + e- r dt E [ g (Y + dY) | Y]

The term p(Y) is calculated above and the term e- r dt E [ g (Y + dY) | Y] is calculated using the Itô's Lemma in the same way as calculated in the first expectation (see Appendix A above). Hence,

g (Y) = Y dt + (1 - rdt) { g + gY a Y dt + 0.5 gYY s2 Y2 dt }

With a few algebra it is easy to get the ordinary differential equation (ODE) showed in the chapter 9 appendix from Dixit & Pindyck book:

0.5 s2 Y2 gYY + a Y gY - r g + Y = 0

Where the subscripts denote derivatives. This ODE has a homogeneous part (equal to ODE from Appendix A) and a nonhomogeneous part (the last term of the left side in the equation above). The solution of this ODE is the sum of the homogeneous general solution with the particular solution:

g(Y) = B1 Yb1 + B2 Yb2 + Y / (r - a)

As before, b1 and b2 are respectively the positive and the negative roots of the standard quadratic characteristic equation

The value of the constants are calculated by using the boundary conditions for Y = 0 and for Y = Y*. Look the definition of g(Y) for the following reasoning.
For g(0) = 0 is necessary that B2 = 0;
For g(Y*) = 0 (because T* = 0) we get B1 = - (Y*)1 - b1 / (r - a).

Substituting the constants into the ODE solution, we complete the proof:

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Jun 5, 2012

Just a "quick" oriental soup

Another soup of the series "We played Korean and Chinese computer games, and then we decided to have a look at what was left in the fridge."

 300 grams of chicken hearts, an average piece of ginger root, a large piece of daikon, dried muer mushrooms, soy sauce, salt, sugar.

Soak the mushrooms in cold water for four hours. Chicken hearts wash well and cut into thin slices, put into boiling water. Chop ginger finely, add to the pan. Add the mushrooms, and, twenty minutes laterpeeled and chopped daikon. Add soy sauce, if needed - a little salt and a third of a teaspoon of sugar - set off the taste of soy. Simmer until daikon cooked.

In fact, the soup is not for the season - it's a "winter" recipe. Anyway, I like it. :)

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Welcome to Enchantment Learning & Living, inspirational blog about the simple pleasures, dreams, and fantasies that bring true magic to the everyday.

A Love Letter to Pleasure

I don't quite understand you; it is as if you are a word in a foriegn language that I can't completely wrap my mouth around--but I try to desperately, willing my tongue and tonsils to coax the song across my palate with grace so that one day I may pass as a native speaker of your bliss.  So please, have patience with my fumbling.

Still, I court you, tempted by your sighs and tickles, or the way you put my life into perspective with a playful shrug of your shoulder and, all at once, my too-hot flame is a joyful spark.  You are Coyote, tempting my off the straight and narrow, that dull anemic path that leaves nothing but an empty cup and a heavy soul.  Okay then, I say, when you cross my path.  Let's go.  Let's get lost in the desert, drunk on the stars, dizzy with the moon.  I won't even pause to catch my breath or search my dictionary to make sure I have the right words for you.  They will come on their own.

Yes, you can kiss me--though I know you would even without my permission.  That's what makes you, you.  And I reach for you in return, seduced by your mercurial touch, grateful for the way you ground me back into my body, my life (for even you, you seemingly flighty creature, have a way of bringing both the lightness of a summer's night and the weight of roots grounding garden herbs into my bones).

I need you; and though I know you've heard this before from countless others, on hundreds of other rendezvous, know this: you are my necessity, my home. You bring wings to my discipline and joy to my focus; you are my rosebud, my compass.  Without you, there would be no breath.

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