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The Limits of Scale

From the April 2014 Issue
The Limits of Scale

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Idea in Brief

The problem

We all know that winning in markets with network effects is about moving first and getting big fast, right? Wrong. All too often, a strategy of rapid scaling can be dead wrong.

Why it happens

Companies trip up when they try to attract large volumes of customers without understanding (1) the strength of mutual attraction among various customer groups and (2) the extent of asymmetric attraction among them.

New entrants should focus on customer groups not currently being served by incumbents, either by targeting customers they are uniquely positioned to serve or by appealing to the most attractive customers in a set.

Incumbents pursuing growth in adjacent markets or new geographies should consider the levels of mutual and asymmetric attraction between new and existing customers. Offering complementary products and services that leverage the differences among customer groups also allows incumbents to expand their reach.

The value of many products and services rises or falls with the number of customers using them. The fewer fax machines in use, for instance, the less important it is to have one. In industries as varied as credit cards, fashion, and online games, these “network effects” influence consumer decisions and limit the number of companies able to compete.

Strategists have developed some well-known rules for navigating business environments with network effects. “Move first” is one. “Get big fast”—by aggressively growing market share, keeping prices low, and acquiring smaller players—is another. We studied dozens of companies around the world to see whether these rules do in fact lead to success. We found that in many instances the rules did provide a playbook for superior performance. But we also uncovered a disturbingly large number of situations in which the conventional wisdom was dead wrong. And when the rules failed, the reason was always the same: In rapidly scaling, the company neglected to take into account differences among its customers.

In the following pages we’ll explore how both incumbents and new entrants can take advantage of customer differences to challenge seemingly secure competitors and fuel growth in markets with network effects.

Two Dimensions of Difference

According to the textbooks, eBay should own the Chinese market. In 2004 it acquired the largest local online-trading company, EachNet, which enjoyed an 85% market share at the time. EBay’s CEO, Meg Whitman, had witnessed the power of network effects in the company’s U.S. business and was supremely confident: “Ten to 15 years from now,” she said, “I think China can be eBay’s largest market on a global basis as we build up the local trade and the export trade.”

Things turned out rather differently. Taobao, a Chinese upstart owned by the Alibaba Group, completely displaced eBay within a few years. To understand how that happened, let’s step back and think about the people who use such services and products. Our analysis reveals that customer groups can differ in two important ways:

Mutual attraction.

Even in markets with network effects, not all customers benefit from the presence of every other customer. Consider two groups of Twitter users, one with an interest in politics and another that is passionate about entertainment. Twitter becomes more useful to the first group as more people share political news and information. Similarly, those interested in celebrities value Twitter more if a larger number of tweets cover entertainment. Some common ground may exist between the two groups—for example, news about the singer Lady Gaga’s political activism would be of interest to both. But generally the political types are strongly attracted to other political types, and the celebrity-obsessed prefer their own kind. The mutual attraction within the groups is very strong; between the two groups, it is far weaker.

When eBay first entered the Chinese market, e-commerce was in its infancy. At the time, technical equipment such as motherboards made up the bulk of online auction purchases, and EachNet, the company that eBay acquired, appealed mostly to technically sophisticated customers. Thanks to strong network effects, eBay’s platform became an increasingly attractive place to buy tech products.

Taobao’s Chinese executives recognized that the company couldn’t compete head-on with eBay in the existing market. So instead they focused on an emerging segment of online auction customers—people on the hunt for clothing and consumer products. Although eBay had a leading position in terms of overall market share, its share of the new segment—which would come to dominate e-commerce in China—was far less imposing. What’s more, eBay’s strong position with techies was no help at all in attracting fashion-focused customers, who were more interested in whether other fashionistas used the site.

Mistakenly assuming that the company had purchased its way to market leadership, eBay’s executives committed a series of strategic errors, ones they might have avoided if they had realized the threat Taobao actually presented. For example, eBay was slow to offer an integrated payment solution, and it insisted on charging customers significant transaction fees. Had its network advantage been real, the model would have made sense—the company with the strongest network effects can typically get away with higher charges (or lower quality). But eBay was not dominant in the emerging consumer market—the mutual attraction between fashionistas and techies was weak—and so its model didn’t fly. In 2006 eBay shut down its business in China.

Asymmetric attraction.

In any network, some customers are more equal than others. Shopping malls provide the classic example. Retailers benefit from the presence of anchor tenants, which are powerful magnets for consumers and help drive traffic in all stores. But anchor tenants benefit less, or not at all, from the presence of smaller stores with lesser brands. The attraction between anchor tenants and small stores runs mostly in one direction; it is asymmetric. Fashion offers another example. Many customers like to wear the kind of clothing that they see on stylish people, creating significant network effects. But celebrities have a disproportionate influence on the fashion decisions of regular customers.

In markets with asymmetric attraction, getting big fast is often a poor strategy. Smart firms instead restrict the size of their network to focus on select customer groups that promise to attract everyone else. Threadless, a Chicago-based clothing company that crowdsources its designs, initially restricted its membership to designers of the respected Dreamless community. From a traditional perspective, this move seems puzzling. Companies like Threadless compete on the quality and variety of products. The greater the number of designers, so the logic goes, the stronger the company’s competitive position. But in the fashion market, asymmetric attraction is important: Limiting contributors to just a few respected designers made others hungry to join. Threadless did open up eventually—anyone can submit designs now—but only after the company had established its position as market leader.

Getting users to join a new online community is not easy. Such efforts very often fail, usually because the companies pay little attention to differences among their customers and variations in the strength of mutual and asymmetric attraction among them. Friendster, an early Canadian-based precursor of Facebook, illustrates how a lack of selectivity can weaken a growing network. The company’s service had huge appeal—so much so that Friendster did not have the server capacity (and financial means) to accommodate everyone interested in signing up.

Faced with this constraint, Friendster decided to admit new members on a first-come, first-served basis, adding large numbers of users in the United States and Asia. But because the mutual attraction between these groups was low, this strategy actually made Friendster’s network effects weaker: Asian users did not care much about U.S. users, and vice versa. It would have been better to focus on one region, say customers in New England, and perhaps better still to focus on New England celebrities, in an attempt to exploit asymmetric attraction. The lesson is clear: Indiscriminate growth often undermines the very network effects you’re trying to achieve. That’s why developing a finer understanding of customer differences can lead to better strategic decisions, for both new entrants and incumbents.

Strategies for New Entrants

Dethroning an incumbent is a famously hard challenge for any company, even if the new entrant offers a superior product or service. Exploiting the differences among the incumbent’s customers can help upstarts gain an edge. Let’s look first at a strategy for networks in which the mutual attraction of customers varies.

Pick off the most interested.

For much of its history, the New York Times was a regional newspaper with a small readership outside its home area. This was no coincidence. The newspaper business exhibits strong network effects at the local level: More readers attract more advertisers, which attract even more readers. Local interests tend to dominate, and as one or two papers achieve critical mass, they leave the others behind. As a result, most U.S. cities have only a few major papers.

When the New York Times expanded to serve readers nationally, it had to overcome local network effects. It did so by focusing in each new market on the small subset of readers whom it could serve exceptionally well: those with a strong interest in international news. These readers were only weakly attracted to locally focused readers and advertisers. As they switched to the Times, the local competition cut costs by reducing global coverage, prompting additional readers to follow suit. As its overall circulation grew, the paper became more attractive to national advertisers. In some cities, it split the market with the local competition. In others, it put the locals completely out of business.

Create an exclusive experience.

EHarmony, an online dating company, used asymmetric attraction to its advantage. Despite Match.com’s leading position in an industry where customers value more choice and tend to flock to the largest sites as a result, eHarmony managed to successfully enter the market by creating an exclusive service for people looking for long-term relationships. In essence, it exploited the fact that for a subset of Match.com’s customer base, some members were of more value than others: Commitment seekers wanted to connect with other commitment seekers; the casual daters in the mix were a nuisance. Because eHarmony screened out the daters, it provided a superior experience for the “committed” types. It entered a smaller market than the one Match.com served but did so successfully, attracting 600,000 users in just five years.

Strategies for Incumbents

At some point dominant players in mature network-based industries face diminishing returns as they attempt to acquire new customers. The results can be extreme: A 2013 working paper by the University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Sinkinson, for example, estimated that the exclusive distribution contract for Apple’s first iPhone was worth more than $20 billion to AT&T. However, the extra customers were worth much less—only around $3 billion—to Verizon, the wireless market leader that already enjoyed a huge network.

When opportunities in existing markets begin to dry up, sustainable growth generally comes from entering adjacent markets, expanding into new geographies, or adding complementary features. Factoring into your analysis the differences among your customer groups can help you make the right choices in each case.

Adjacent markets.

These are closely related but not identical markets, and there are usually several to choose from. In most cases, to make the right choice you must assess the level of mutual attraction between your current customers and those in the adjacent market.

Consider the travel services business TripAdvisor. Thanks to strong network effects—the more customers who write reviews, the more valuable the site becomes—TripAdvisor has captured more than twice the market share of its next-best competitor in the “destinations and accommodations” category. From this position of strength, the company considered expanding into restaurants and flights.

TripAdvisor’s principal attraction is the reviews that customers enjoy reading and writing. Such reviews are equally valuable to people choosing a restaurant; however, reviews of past flights on a given route for a given airline are poor predictors of the quality of future flights. Consequently, other people’s experiences are largely irrelevant. Note that the customers in all three markets (hotels, restaurants, flights) are the same people. But what they value about the TripAdvisor experience in hotels carries over to restaurants—and not to flights. This meant that restaurants provided a far better opportunity for expansion.

New geographies.

The mutual attraction between existing and new customers also matters when choosing new geographic markets. Consider Wikipedia. Founded in 2001, the encyclopedia now offers more than 4 million entries. There are strong network effects in this industry: the larger the number of entries, the greater the benefits of using Wikipedia.

When Wikipedia sought to expand its offering to foreign-language encyclopedias, it considered a range of markets. One option was to select a large market in which few people speak English and thus are unable to use the English-language version—Japan, for instance. The problem with that approach is that because only a small number of Japanese speak English and not many Americans speak Japanese, Wikipedia can’t leverage the network effects of its English-language version. It would have no special competitive advantage in launching an online encyclopedia in that market.

But not all geographic opportunities have customers with such low levels of mutual attraction. By targeting countries in which English was commonly spoken as a second language and recruiting bilingual authors, Wikipedia was able to exploit advantages from its existing network. Many early contributors to the English-language version were Dutch and German. Those authors were well positioned to help launch foreign-language editions in their home countries; they were already familiar with Wikipedia and its rules of authorship, and they enjoyed contributing to the crowdsourced effort. The bilingual readers benefited from the U.S. network effects directly, and the monolingual readers were served by the local language entries prepared by the bilingual authors. Wikipedia eventually expanded to 285 languages. (See the exhibit “Wikipedia: The English Advantage.”)

As incumbents expand into adjacent markets and new geographies, levels of both mutual and asymmetric attraction increase, presenting opportunities for focused entrants. But here, the strategic priority lies not in exploiting differences but in finding ways to bridge them.

One of the best ways to do that is by offering a complement (a product or service that adds value to another product or service: for instance, a razor and razor blade). Consider Facebook. How did it manage to become a dominant global enterprise when its network effects, while enormously strong, were largely U.S.-based? Most Norwegians, for example, don’t care that Facebook is the leading social network in the United States, because they do not have many American friends. So why did Facebook displace domestic competitors such as Blink and Playahead?

The answer was social games like Zynga’s FarmVille. These games, which used Facebook as a platform, allowed users to interact with strangers in an engaging manner, bridging the differences between Norwegians and Americans. Moreover, when Zynga developed its next game, it was able to spread the fixed cost of game development over millions of users, increasing development budgets and (it hoped) the quality of the games. Gaming companies that served smaller markets found it difficult to compete.

This is not just a social media story. Complements play an important role in many industries. Take retail banking. ATMs and branches are strategically important because they create network effects—but these effects are fairly local. A Bostonian appreciates her bank’s having an ATM in Chapel Hill, but the benefit is limited because she is rarely in North Carolina. The missing piece is the complements: banking products and services that customers appreciate irrespective of their location. If a bank developed a reputation for superior financial advice, customers might want the institution’s products and services whether or not it had ATMs in the area. For ATMs, customer preferences are heterogeneous; everybody wants them close to home, which favors local incumbents. In financial planning, however, there is far less heterogeneity, which creates an opening for new entrants.The strength of network effects can be as varied as the human beings who make up the network. A strategy that fails to take into account this variation—ignoring differences in mutual and asymmetric attraction among customers—is likely to fail. It is the rare and lucky firm that prospers simply by being first and getting big fast. In nearly any market with network effects, customers will find the presence of too many of the “wrong” sort of people a distinct turnoff. Welcome to the networked economy—perhaps not so different from the old economy after all.

A version of this article appeared in the April 2014 issue of Harvard Business Review.

Hanna Halaburda is an assistant professor of business administration at the Harvard Business School.

Felix Oberholzer-Gee is the Andreas Andresen Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School.


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Psyching myself up for W4R2!

Just about to set off on my second run of the week. Having already proved to myself I can do this run (and even having enjoyed it!) I have been quite looking forward to this one. My aim for today is to complete 4.5k in the whole time (about 34-35 minutes including the warm up and cool down walks).

I'm out in the French countryside at the moment, and will be for about the next three weeks, meaning the heat has been a bit of a problem (well only for my running, fantastic otherwise...). I've been having to run just before or just after dinner - generally around 8-9pm which isn't ideal but the only time when it's really cool enough. Although I must say that my cool down walk - which is always the (VERY) uphill walk up my drive always coincides with the incredible sunset, which along with all the running endorphins, always has me buzzing by the time I'm back home. I've just been running out along a straight road and then back again, which I thought I would find dull but in fact it means I can try and run a little further each run and I can see myself improving, which has been really encouraging.

Anyway I am now quite looking forward to this run, although I think it may be the hottest one I've done yet so I hope that won't affect me too much. And another encouraging thought - after this one I'm officially halfway through the programme!! That 5k really isn't seeming so untouchable now.

I'll update after this run. Happy running everyone!

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I've been trying to quit for a year now. I've managed for a week or two tops then something happens and I use it as an excuse to start. Or I start to smoke when I drink, have some left over the next day and don't stop again. I need to quit now for medical reasons. I need to have nicotine out of my system asap and keep it out for at least a year but hopefully by then I'll not want to start again anyway.

So since I failed so many times I was wondering if maybe NRT would help? I can cut down to 5 a day so I wouldn't want a high dose. I crave so so much and I have the habit issue- when I drink being the biggy, I can't let myself go to a party tonight because I know I'll smoke but I can't do that forever. So I was thinking maybe I'll make it long term if I use NRT so I can deal with the problems one at a time.

But I'm concerned about how long that'll take and if I can get a lose enough dose to cut myself down from 5 a day. I think I'd prefer patches to take away the actively getting rid of the craving you get from gum or the inhaler type things.

Any advice appreciated

2 Replies

  • Hiya Sponge and welcome to the forum. I used NRT in the form of patches and can see nothing wrong with that, there is also inhalator and gum, I did use inhalator alongside the patches for a few days, but found out I didn't need it. There is also Champix which is fairly popular here, this has the added bonus of containing no nicotine at all. Do you have smoking cessation clinics in your area? Your best bet would be to use one of those, failing that has your GP's practice got a stop smoking nurse? Patches do come in different strengths so try to find out as much as you can. Also if you can't drink without smoking decide how much you really need to drink. Wish you well whatever you do. David.

  • thanks for your reply

    I suppose it's not so much the physical drinking (though that doesn't exactly help) but the social situation within which I usually drink. I can not drink or only have 1 or 2 very easily. But I still want to smoke because my mates do, I like going out for the banter, in clubs I like to go out into the cool for a bit, it's often when I really get to talk to folk because my hearing isn't great and pubs/clubs tend to be a bit loud- it's just generally developed into part of my social skills. But I can't still do those things and not smoke because watching others smoke while having the habitual trigger is a nightmare. I refuse to stop having a social life or totally change it in order to quit smoking.

    Going to my GP, or anything where things will be kept on record, worries me a bit. I tell my doctor I don't smoke because of issues with other medication (long story but it's not medically necessary for them to know, my medical reason for quitting is separate). So I can't have anything getting back to them

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Water wings

As many of you will know this week I entered a swimming pool for the first time in well over a decade. being a very poor swimmer has always restricted me it's not a fear of water it's just up or swimming Style I can just about do breaststroke badly. I have never been sporty or truly enjoyed any kind of outdoor activity aside from walking and tennis I seem to lack the aptitude of a sportsman and perhaps that is because of my Parkinson's who knows.

But now it's something different is it play my body is craving movement today's with Parkinson's you understand what I mean when on a daily basis it's like being encased in a concrete box. That is no exaggeration. my body is stiff and often ridgid and does not respond to my mental instructions to move. when I sit down it is hard to get up when I am standing it is hard to sit down when I am lying in bed my husband now has to turn me over. rigidity comes with its own curious form of claustrophobia it's not that you feel trapped in the space you're in you just feel trapped in you. so far of all the things that I have tried swimming is the one that ranks the highest in terms of liberating that physical cage. So today once more I am off to breaststroke badly to feel free as a soaring bird.

6 Replies

  • I heard it's very gentle on the body. Hope it helps you.

  • I am hesitant to reply since I am a new member but I wonder if you have read Brain Storms by Jon Palferman? There is a chapter about Pamela Quinn, a dancer who has great control of her body despite having PD. As a dancer she knows how to make her body work. On her website "pamelaquinn.net (I think it's net, not com) she has a section at the top called Me to You (I think that was it) or similar name and has 6 good tips for moving around--walking etc. Maybe her tips would help you. I hope they do. Meanwhile swimming should be very good too.

  • Don't be hesitant! Thank you so much for taking the time to post and for being so thoughtful. Yes I've known of Pamela for a very long time and she is marvellous. I'm working through a publication called the art of moving it is proving to be very useful. 😀

  • I looked up the publication you are reading on Amazon and it does look like it would be very helpful. I know what you mean about "working through it". It takes time to try exercises and begin to remember how to do them.

  • Did you enjoy it? I loved swimming but when I try now, I list to one side, like a toy boat in the bath! But I get joy from stretching and yoga. I went to the gym today very wobbly and after fifteen minutes of stretching I was so much steadier. Like you, I've never been sporty or indeed, very physically active. Ironically, I am now because I know I have to keep moving.

  • Yes I loved it my body was like a caged bird given the sky 😀

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Can i increase my dose?

My doctor reduced my dose of levothyroxine to 125 mcg down from 150 mcg and i haven't felt this run down since before i was first diagnosed. i have gained a lot of weight, my skin is dry and i feel drained. My doctor won't listen when i tell him how I feel and insists i am taking too much. Can i increase it myself to the dose i was on previously and see if things improve? I feel like i am hitting my head on a brick wall when i talk to my doctor.

40 Replies

  • You could increase it and see how you feel, but if the doctor doesn't agree with you its worth asking for a referral to an endocrinologist. Be really careful that you get a good one though. there is a list available of the better endos. Email Louise in admin for a copy. Before you do anything with the meds though, get a copy of your test results, just to double check that there is room to increase. Post them on here and people will give them the once over.

    Xx. G

  • Oh my, did he explain why he reduced your dose? I suppose it was because of your TSH being very low.....but we expect it to be suppressed when you take outside hormone. It doesn't matter if it's very low. What matters is your FT4 and FT3 and their comparative results. Can you find out what they were when he decided to reduce your hormone? Unless they are both very high, that would be the only reason to consider that you might be over medicated.

    These GPs have ruined people's health with their ignorance. That's why many have decided to monitor their own treatment.

  • Without any new blood results it's difficultcult to say with certainty what the situation is though symptoms suggest you are now under medicated. I would certainly increase but may be not straight back to what I was in before but alternate between the two doses. Go back in 6 weeks for a retest regardless how you feel. If you are still feeling rubbish tell him you were feeling so bad at first and thought you had dropped the dose too quickly hence the halfway thing and then you either, depending on what happens say you feel that very slight decrease is fine or it's not working dropping it so can he suggest anything else or refer you. But you really need your FT4 and FT3 results to firm up your point of few. Many of us need to increase our dose in the winter so I think it's the wrong time of year to be going lower without any good reason. Have you are bloods to show/suggest why he made this decision?

  • What really could happen if you increase your dose? If you feel a little hyper then you only have to reduce again.

  • Last time he looked at my results he only looked at the thyroid levels and said i needed to reduce. He did this on 2 occasions and tried reducing it to 100 mcg and 125 mcg on alternate days but I kept forgetting which days i had taken which dose so i left it at 125 mcg. I was already feeling a massive decline in my general health after the first reduction. I will be asking for another test when i can get time off in February and hopefully I can request a print off of my previous results. Until I joined this group I didn't even know i could do that.

  • Change your g.p

  • I did increase my dose, out of desperation to feel well again. I was on 100 thyroxine with 20 T3 and still symptomatic. I increased over a few weeks to 200 and 25 of T3. I started to fell human again. I then had saw bowel specialist who took thyroid bloods but only did TSH and T4, overlooking the T3 even though I am prescribed T3. I then tried to get the T3 done, with difficulty but managed (only just) to get it done at GP practice - they supposed to do it anyway but override endo. When the results came back T4 was 36.8 and T3 15.1. TSH is less than 0.01. Gp then reduced me to 150 and back to 20 of T3, which is my current dose. Feeling ok, getting up at 6am, bed at 11pm, whereas before I was in bed 10pm the latest, often earlier and waking at 10am. Although being on 150 is making a difference for me, gp practise only monitor me on the TSH and ignore the T4 and T3 levels, which I disagree with. Am due for bloods end of Feb, so depending on what they say, I may end up taking things into my own hands and managing the dosage myself. I still have problems with hair falling out in handfulls when I wash it. I also have scalp dermatitis - which is clearing now I have treatment for it that is working. I still have lots of skin problems, and have many steroid preps and moisturisers on script, and I have severe bowel probs - under the hospital for that.

    Have you ever had a parathyroid check? This can affect your skin ect. I am also hypoparathyroid. Am on calceos for that as vit D3 very low. Be worth checking what bloods you have had done

  • I only ever get the standard thyroid test, i have never been told about parathyroid tests or any others. I just wish i had known my options years ago instead of thinking the doctors were experts!

  • I know what you mean. I only knew about the parathyroid test because when I lived in Cardiff I had a really good gp there who was up on this. I then started reading up and doing my own research and came across this site which is brilliant as I have learned so much from here.

    If you have not had a thyroid antibodies test done, could request one from your Gp. I had my first one ever just before Christmas and after being on thyroxine for more than 5 years and on a high dose, mine are high.

    The following tests would be helpful to you:

    TPO Antibodies

    Also, B12, ferritin, magnesium, zinc (if your gp will do it, mine said no as its only a trace mineral - I may not agree with that though)

    If you're symptoms have worsened since decrease in dose, sounds like you need to increase back up to a level that makes you feel better.

    Gp's should be doing TSH, T4 and T3, also antibodies. Most, including mine only test and monitor on the TSH, which is the worst way to treat hypo. That lead me to taking things into my own hands x

  • Also folate needs to be checked

    Sorry, forgot to add that one

  • You are symptomatic so surely under medicated. Prior to thyroid blood tests doctors increased thyroid medication until symptoms went.

    I did not feel well until my free t4 was just above the top of the lab range. There is no way that any doctor will get me to reduce my dose as I know exactly how much I need.

    Doctors and most endocrinologists treat according to TSH blood tests, when they should go by free t4 being at the top and free t3 towards the top of the lab range.

    Also most GP's do not know that when taking T3 or NDT which contains T3 that it suppresses your tsh.

    Push for the higher dose, let us know what your free t4 is?

  • on what grounds did your doctor reduce your dose

    what test results did he use ............get a copy of all your results and post them here so we can help more

    You are clearly proving you needed the higher dose

    did you take your thyroid meds in the 24 hours before the test because this will always screw up results and cause doctors to reduce dosages

  • The last time i took it about 2 hours before my test but the previous one i waited til after my test. since he reduced it both times I didn't think it made a difference.

  • My doctor just said my thyroid levels were too high. Not once has he ever mentioned vitamin levels, even when i have tried to tell him how bad I feel. He brushes it off and makes me feel like a hypochondriac

  • I'm afraid that's because they know nothing about nutrition! They believe that vitamins are irrelevant. I'm afraid you're going to have to start standing up to him! Remember what Eleanor Roosevelt said? People can only make you feel small if you allow them to. Or something like that. But you know what I mean. I know how difficult it is to be assertive when you are feeling so ill, but it gets easier with practice. It's time to stand up for our rights. The day of the doctor-god is over! Long live the patient.

    Take care, Grey

  • Until recently I always trusted that my doctor knew what he was talking about. I have considered changing my doctors entirely but worry that i am going to get another one who doesn't know what he/she is looking at.

  • It make a huge difference

    never never take it for 24 hrs and always get a copy of the results

    doctors only look at blood tests not symptoms

  • Not convinced not taking T4 for 24 hours makes a difference, my TSH has gone down which ever way.If it takes over 7 days to have an effect it seems unlikely to show up in the blood that quick .May be different if taking T3.

  • From my experience it is the FT4 that is higher if you take your meds a few hours before hand. I didn't seem to affect my TSH.

  • You may not be convinced, but give it a try anyway. What have you got to lose? Just take it right after the test, it's not going to cost you anything, and it might make the difference between a dose increase and a dose reduction, whether it's T4 or T3. Are you doubting our collective experience??? lol I can assure you that it does make a difference.

  • I agree there is nothing to lose and I have been not taking the meds until after apart from when the doc booked an appointment for lunch time immediately after my appointment with him ,and the TSH still was lower then before.

    There is a book on investments called The Madness Of Crowds ,tulip mania etc. Collective experience can be mistaken. On this site there are many with multiple health problems maybe not all diagnosed and there are dangers in projecting remedies to all.Having said that ,I am not knocking the site which is wonderfully informative .

  • Advising not to take your hormone until after a blood test is hardly 'projecting' a remedy! I think you're exagerating a bit, there. maybe you would prefer we didn't say anything, and just let people get on with it? In any case, nobody is obliged to take the advice, they can always do as they think best.

    Oh, and it's not just on this site that people say not to take the hormone before a test, I think you'll find most of them do.

  • I was not meaning that specific advice as it can do no harm at all,was generalising from the miserable position of being denied vin for the second day with more to go.

  • Why are you denied wine? Have you been a naughty boy?

  • Doc reckoned bloods showing liver damage, I asked how bad but then he said that the results not reliable .Despite that ,best to have 3 nights a week off. He rightly pointed out that as life changes,in my case retirement and not having to be up at 6.30am means one can booze more and I did.

    Moderation in all things!!!!

  • Amen to that! Ask for a second opinion.

  • Why do people go on so about alcohol, to experience a clear mind is a wonderful thing, I treasure mine.

  • You may be right ,it's an addiction.Todays latest research is that a small glass a night reduces heart attacks compared to non drinkers and those who drink more than one glass a night.Tomorrows news will be different!

  • I am in the same situation, have not felt well since levo reduced from 125 to 100. People suggest upping the dose yourself but if you are only prescribed 100 there are not enough tablets to do this and you would run out before the next prescription is due, am perplexed.

  • That is the problem I have.Will not be able to get more meds.

  • Mmm, unless they are gotten privately, prescriptions go in early - hoping they wont notice or they are gotten online

  • It was a while ago joyla but I think I was so desperate that I tried taking a higher dose, felt much better, had proof that it worked and was able to ask for an increased prescription on that basis.

    I was lucky that my GP was cooperative but, then again, perhaps we need to be more assertive when it is our quality of life that's at stake.

  • In the past I have taken above the dose and gone back for a prescription early cos I ran out of tablets and the gp does not even notice the dates

  • majority of doctors and Endos have no idea about the vital need for right level of vitamins etc plus they fail to recognise that the process of becoming hypothyroid strips the body of all vitamins etc so horrendously

    My husband had Beri Beri and scurvy despite always a diet rich in true wholemeal bread and loads of oranges long before his hashimotos was diagnosed

  • the only answer when doctors refuse to give you adequate dosages is to self treat using NDT etc which can be obtained via internet

  • I increased my dose when the Doctor said I was at the right level but still felt rotten. I just overlapped the prescriptions so I always have a little extra in hand. What reason does he give? What is your TSH level? Docs normally medicate on that and they get jittery when it goes what they consider to be too low. I think that your TSH is only an indication of what your test results are not how you feel.

  • The problem is doctors are taught to treat by the TSH blood test results -many GPs do not know the signs &symptoms that hypothyroidism presents with & will not treat via that route. On top of which Endocrnologists also advocate treating by the TSH so it's extremely difficult these days to find a medical practioners who will not over obsess on the TSH. I've been looking for a while for an open minded medical practioners who will advise my GP & have been unable so far to find one....even off the lists from here. Being on a combination med means inevitably my TSH is supressed & has been now for over 8yrs -thyroid hormones themselves are well in range but this makes no difference. Unless I can find someone am coming to the conclusion I will have to self treat. All a bit crazy as have been on the same dose (with winter/summer) tweaks in all that time. Nevertheless my current specialist is worried by my TSH though admits my actual level of thyroid hormones are perfect!!! Nuts!!!

    Your best bet is to read up & become will have to take charge if you want to feel well again. Good luck!!

  • After years of gradually upping my own dose, with a gradual return to health, my GP wanted to reduce it from 150 mcg to 125. I politely enquired why she proposed reducing it when I felt so much better? No real reason was given and, after an embarrassing, silent impasse, I suggested trying 125 on alternate days to see how I got on, but please would she leave the prescription at 150, as it had taken a long time to finally feel better. I tried alternate days but immediately put weight back on, with returning symptoms. I returned to 150mcg and heard no more.

    I don't believe you have to agree to a reduction in medication without good reason - Rod posted information about this some time ago. I'll try to find it if anyone needs it.

  • Absolutely i agree with polaris. I went back to my GP several times feeling ill and she eventuallysaid 'well youre the only one that knows how you feel, and thats the most imprtant thing. as long as you know that you're the one choosing to do this, go ahead' Since then I have managed my own dose and am at the moment dropping 25mcg as i began to feel unwell. You really cant go far wrong; you will know if your dose is wrong, and alter it again. I think we make a big mistake giving evverything over to the GP.

  • Totally agree, morena! You were Lucky with your doctor, there. Unfortunately, not everyone is that Lucky. Most doctors will just trot out that well-worn phrase 'it's nothing to do with your thyroid, your TSH is in range!'

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text:
The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations (2009) Movie Review

The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations (2009)

2009 | R | Thriller, Sci-Fi, Drama, Crime
90 minutes /

User Score: 56/100

[ Full Poster ]

The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations Review

Sam Reide uses his power to time travel to solve the mystery of his girlfriend's death.

The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations (2009) is an American sci-fi psychological thriller that is the third movie in the Butterfly Effect franchise. Director Seth Grossman (The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations (2009), The Elephant King (2006), $50K and a Call Girl: A Love Story (2014), Shock Act (2004)) did a phenomenal job directing this entertaining movie. The Butterfly Effect 3 is only similar to the two previous films in its sequel because of time travel but has nothing else in common. The film contains gore, nudity, time travel, alternate timeline, sexual content, extreme violence, bad language/profanity, drug use and murders.

Sam Reide (Chris CarmackNashville (2012), Beauty & the Briefcase (2010), Shark Night 3D (2011)) has an extraordinary power, and that power gives him the ability to travel/to jump back in time. Sam works as a faux-psychic and helps the police arrest many murderers. He travels back in time to see who the murderer was and notifies the police of his conclusion. The police believe that Sam is a psychic and does not know that Sam can time travel. Sam’s younger sister Jenna (Rachel Miner - Guiding Light (1952), Bully (2001), Penny Dreadful (2006)) loves Sam very much and tries her hardest for nothing to happen to him while he jumps back in time. Sam’s deceased girlfriend Elizabeth Brown (Sarah Habel) sister Rebecca Brown (Mia Serafino - Saving Mr. Banks (2013), Oz the Great and Powerful (2013), Approaching Midnight (2013)) insists on that Sam seek out who is the real killer. Rebecca believes that the man on death row for her sister’s murder is innocent and needs Sam to jump back into time to see who the real killer is. Sam knows better but breaks the jumping rules regardless to help Rebecca and his curiosity. What happens next was intriguing and mind boggling.

The Butterfly Effect 3 was more interesting/entertaining than The Butterfly Effect 2 (2006) but does not surpass the first movie in its sequel. I gave this movie a five because it was entertaining but there were a lot of questions left unanswered/unexplained, and then when it was answered, it did not make sense. I admired the director’s effort and was happy that he stepped up and gave us a satisfying ending. The movie was a nice watch overall and is worth watching although it is not related to the first two movies in its sequel except for the concept of time travel.

About The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations (2009)

Title: The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations
Year: 2009
Runtime: 90 minutes
Type: Movie
Genre: Thriller, Sci-Fi, Drama, Crime
Score: 2.5 / 5 stars
Avg. Rating: 2.75/5 stars from 34 users.
Total Avg. Votes: 34
MPAA Rating: R
Starring: Bill Lumbert, Dennis North, Michael Ellison, Lynch R. Travis, Andi Foster, Daniel Spink, Shawntay Dalon, Hugh Maguire, Richard Wilkinson, Linda Boston, Chris Carmack, Peter Malota, Melissa Jones, Sonya A. Avakian, Kevin Yon, Alexis Sturr, Sarah Habel, Mia Serafino, Dwayne Roszkowski, Tom Stewart, Chantel Giacalone, L. Nicole Taylor, Ulysses Hernandez, Michael Paul Place, Catherine Towne, Emily Sutton-Smith, Rachel Miner, Trevor Callaghan
Writers: Holly Brix
Director: Seth Grossman

The Butterfly Effect 3: Revelations Cover Poster Art


text:
United States
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120mm Molex 1.25 Servo Extension (5pcs/bag)

120mm Molex 1.25 Servo Extension...

120mm Molex 1.25 Servo Extension (5pcs/bag)

Weight: 0.8g(Each)

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120mm Molex 1.25 Servo Extension (5pcs/bag)

Weight: 0.8g(Each)

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Alles besten ef?llt den Sinn und Zweck zu einen normalen Preis.
Habe ich schon mehrmals bestellt sind ok
very good product for the price
Perfect and cheap - but take care, different brands use different orders of signal, plus and -, check it and dont mix up ...

(anyway, only extension in "wrong color" would not be a problem, but could make confusion)
Align 150 DFC damaged servo lead/plug. Replaced servo lead/plug with these extensions. Servo wire and plug are stronger but not enough to affect form fit or function of Align servo's. 120mm is long enough to repair even the longest elevator servo lead. Cost savings 34c vrs 19$ per servo.
Wighs around 0.9g each. Length measured including contacts is around 137mm. Nice quality, all worked well. Astounding that they can be sold so cheap. A cable like this would cost four times more here for just a single cable! Recommended.
Otimo produto! Recomendo a compra!
These work great with the
FrSky VD5M 2.4Ghz 5CH Micro Receiver w/Telemetry
I used these to make leads so I can use Standard Analog Servo on my plane.
Will use these as reeplacement cable for nano servos in combination with the new Hitec minima compatible receiver in a shockflyer
Bestens gearbeitet. Keine Unterbrechnungen, geringer ohmscher Widerstand
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GBS maturity: actual vs. aspirational

GBS maturity: actual vs. aspirational

The ability to assess where companies are on the maturity spectrum is based on a multitude of client engagements and research KPMG International has conducted with more than 150 companies in a range of industries, of which 15 are major pharmaceutical and medical devices companies, that have GBS.

Related content

Based on this research, KPMG International was able to determine the average maturity level of the 15 companies on each of the 10 dimensions.

The chart (see figure below) shows that the maturity varies widely from one dimension to another and is lowest in data and analytics and enabling technology. The level of maturity is highest in the change and program management. As can be seen, there are significant gaps between the actual level of maturity and the level that is desired.

Moving from one to the other is the often difficult journey that KPMG member firms help companies navigate. Companies in other industries that are more advanced in GBS implementation have lessons to teach pharmaceuticals. KPMG in the UK is currently advising a number of large, global banks in the UK, as they create or improve their GBS organizations.

The scale of GBS is large: up to half the total workforce of these organizations provides back- and middle-office services to the front office. For some organizations, this involves more than 100,000 people.

“By including technology services and call centers in their model, not only do they create end-to-end ownership of the bank’s processes, but they are complying with stringent, new regulatory requirements, driven by the fall-out of the global financial crisis,” says Claudio Altini, Director, GBS Advisory, at KPMG in the UK.

KPMG’s GBS pharma consortium

In early 2014, KPMG in the US formed a research consortium; now expanded to 15 global pharma companies. Each member of the consortium has been benchmarked against the others, anonymously. Now they know how they compare with their peers. GBS leaders of consortium members meet once a month, off the record, to discuss what is at the top of their agendas. Each month, a different member company leads a discussion on a topic of its choosing and a KPMG subject-matter specialist talks about the firm’s experience in advising on GBS in other industries.

GBS level of maturity across the KPMG 10 dimensions of GBS

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• Call your local brokerage at 270.442.2100
For Sale:$36,900
Monthly Payment:
Principal & Interest:
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(Based on a 30 year fixed loan at 3.38% with $7,380 down)
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L-7 Marina Village Drive

Grand Rivers, KY 42045

Livingston County School District
N/Asq ft N/A / sq ft LND
Lot Size24,394sq ft BuiltN/A On site52days HOA Dues: $360
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Interior Lot in Lakeside Gated Community with underground utilities. Natural wooded setting featuring unique home sites, lakeside breezes & waterfront views. Home values start at $200, 000 to a Million Plus, offers something for everyone. Adjacent to Green Turtle Bay Resort & Marina the Private Restaurant & Yatch Club is open for membership. Boat slips in the subdivision are rented through GTB when avalable. Mineral Rights Reserved
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MLS #89782 , Listed on 12/01/16 by LAKE REALTY & DEVELOPMENT CO.
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  • In City Limits

  • Lake Area

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  • 24,394 Sq. Ft.

Elementary School

  • South Livingston Elementary

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  • Livingston Middle

High School

  • Livingston Cent

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  • Livingston

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  • $360

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12/01/16 New Listing $36,900 KY_WKRMLS

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This Land for sale in Grand Rivers, KY is currently listed for $36,900. Featuring a lot size of 24,394 Sq. Ft., L-7 Marina Village Drive has been on homesforsale.century21.com for 52 days.

This listing is provided courtesy of LAKE REALTY & DEVELOPMENT CO.. Interested in viewing more homes for sale near L-7 Marina Village Drive Grand Rivers, KY 42045? You can search all Grand Rivers MLS listings, find a real estate agent, get a home value estimate and more on homesforsale.century21.com.
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The information being provided by Western Kentucky Regional MLS is for the consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumer may be interested in purchasing. Any information relating to real estate for sale referenced on this web site comes from the Internet Data Exchange (IDX) program of the Western Kentucky Regional MLS. Service Realty is not a Multiple Listing Service (MLS), nor does it offer MLS access. This website is a service of Service Realty, a broker participant of Western Kentucky Regional MLS. This web site may reference real estate listing(s) held by a brokerage firm other than the broker and/or agent who owns this web site.

The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, including but not limited to open house information, square footages and lot sizes, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be personally verified through personal inspection by and/or with the appropriate professionals. The data contained herein is copyrighted by Western Kentucky Regional MLS and is protected by all applicable copyright laws. Any unauthorized dissemination of this information is in violation of copyright laws and is strictly prohibited.

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text:
The Honeynet Project - dbscan en Introducing Acapulco: Building Clustered Parallel Coordinates Graphs from HPFeeds data
…and the summer is over. During the last three months I have tried to make sense of the highly unstructured data set that comes from merging the data streams of several hpfeeds channels. I have had to learn the inner workings of Splunk, their SDKs, the D3.js graphic library and explore different machine learning frameworks and clustering algorithms.

read more
 clustering dbscan hpfeeds kmeans parallel coordinates splunk Mon, 20 Aug 2012 01:22:01 +0000 hugo.gascon 933 at


text:
Hotel collections in Roldan

Selection of 1 collections of cheap hotels with an average rate of $0
  • guests
As any city, Roldan offers cheap hotel rooms of various kinds, that's why we have collected the best of them in theme collections to make it easier for you to choose the hotel you want. Roldan is a rather small town, so there are only 1 hotel collections here, however there are a lot of interesting variants for booking among them.
Hotellook team
The most popular Roldan hotels
  • 3
  • 8.4
    average rating
There are 10 hotels in Roldan, and among them we want to highlight top-3 of the most popular ones. Are you interested?
Show collection


text:
Hotels in Shoresh

  • guests

Hotel rooms in Shoresh

There are not so many hotel rooms in Shoresh, just 2, still everyone can find an offer to suit his choice. The most common offers in this city are guest houses, they count 2 out of 2, and their prevalent location is central district. According to our practice, it is the most profitable to book a hotel in the east of Shoresh, as it is the location of the hotels with optimal cost and quality offers along with the cheap hotels. Taking into account the small size of the city, there is no need to dwell hotel reservation on the location: the road to the city center would take less then half an hour, so one can book a hotel in any district of Shoresh. The most populated with hotels district of Shoresh is the south, 50% of cheap hotel rooms are concentrated here. Shoresh is an ideal place for family and couple, such travellers rate hotels there 7.9 out of 10 on average. Apart from all these, hotels in Shoresh offer their customers swimming pool, laundry service, bar and restaurant/cafe. The staff of the most hotels is multilingual: it speaks russian, arabic and english. The most appreciated amenities in Shoresh hotels are service and breakfast. According to the visitors reviews, hotels in Shoresh has tasty breakfast, great location and fantastic service. Take a look at our selection of the cheap hotel rooms in Shoresh to make a well-informed choice for your reservation!

Shoresh cheap hotels

Best hotels in Shoresh

Hotels in Shoresh are spread around the city within the distance of 2.3 kilometers, while 1 hotels are located directly in the city center. The most popular accommodations in Shoresh is Shoresh Green Hills Country Lodging located in a 0.4 kilometers from the city center.
The best hotels are here and now. Try them!
  • guests


text:
Prarthna Ashutoshmunidottir

House keeping

Home Owner in Kernersville

Need help in Housekeeping. Cleaning, laundry, dishes, etc.. Looking for routine help. Needs help keeping up with 2500 sq ft home with two kids and two adults. Flexible schedule.

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Phone Number 336-817-...

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Tiffany Mullis

Organizing and Cleaning, Young Professional

Housekeeper in Tulsa

I am great at organizing and helping you get ready to purge items you do not use, that are trash, or that you want to sell online or at a garage sale. I am very detailed, like to work with you so that you feel 100% comfortable in what is being done in your home. I will treat your home like I do my own home and personal space. I have references upon request. We will come up with a game plan that works for us and I will outline how the project will be done in a timely manner. I truly love to organize and clean, and get great satisfaction with helping others get their home more organized! Young Professional Great Prices Reliable Friendly Trustworthy Discreet Will bring cleaning supplies Pride in my organizing and cleaning Will work on bedrooms, bathrooms, children's rooms, main living areas, kitchens, garages, attics, etc. Can assist after M-F after 5:30pm and all day Saturday/Sunday Thanks!

Housekeeper Details

Email Address
Phone Number 281-543-... Confirmed
Years of Experience 7
Provider Type Individuals
Services General Room Cleaning
Refrigerator Cleaning
Cabinet Cleaning
Attic Clean-Up
Basement Clean-Up
House Sitting
Household Own Transportation
Hourly Rate $10.00
Has Own Supplies Yes

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Amon Brown

Precise Cleaning Home & Office Maintenance

Housekeeper in Killeen

We are a full service company providing the best customer service and to quality. Our Services Include: Tile & Grout, Extraction Steam Clean, Window Cleaning, Lite yard Maintenance, Haul trash, Parvo treatment, Weekly Home Maitenance.

Housekeeper Details

Email Address Confirmed
Phone Number 254-953-... Confirmed
Zip Code 76543
Years of Experience 10
Provider Type Agencies/Companies
Services Bathroom
General Room Cleaning
Change Bed Linens
Oven Cleaning
Refrigerator Cleaning
Cabinet Cleaning
Window Washing
Surface Polishing
Carpet Shampooing
Wall Washing
Pet Clean-Up
Attic Clean-Up
Basement Clean-Up
Take Out Trash/Recycling
Household Own Transportation
Hourly Rate $1.00
Has Own Supplies Yes
Has Own Equipment Yes
Agencies/Companies Yes

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Kiki Reis

Sunshine Cleaners for your cleaning needs

Housekeeper in Arlington

Sunshine Cleaners are available to clean your home - we offer two packages - a classic package for your living room, bedroom, kitchens and a premium package that includes the classic package and Carpet Cleaning. Please contact us today to schedule a free consultation.

Housekeeper Details

Email Address
Phone Number 571-224-...
Years of Experience 20
Provider Type Individuals
Services Bathroom
General Room Cleaning
Change Bed Linens
Oven Cleaning
Refrigerator Cleaning
Cabinet Cleaning
Surface Polishing
Carpet Shampooing
Attic Clean-Up
Basement Clean-Up
House Sitting
Take Out Trash/Recycling
Household Own Transportation
Has Own Supplies Yes
Has Own Equipment Yes

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Quality adjusted measures of services in public schools

  • Heshmati, Almas

No abstract is available for this item.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 136 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (February)
Pages: 655-670

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:136:y:2002:i:3:p:655-670
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  1. Heckman, James & Layne-Farrar, Anne & Todd, Petra, 1996. "Human Capital Pricing Equations with an Application to Estimating the Effect of Schooling Quality on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 562-610, November.
  2. Lima, Anthony K, 1981. "An Economic Model of Teaching Effectiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1056-59, December.
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
  4. Hanushek, Eric A, 1992. "The Trade-Off between Child Quantity and Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 84-117, February.
  5. David Card & Alan Krueger, 1990. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," NBER Working Papers 3358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Murnane, Richard J & Maynard, Rebecca A & Ohls, James C, 1981. "Home Resources and Children's Achievement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 369-77, August.
  7. Eric A. Hanushek & Lori L. Taylor, 1990. "Alternative Assessments of the Performance of Schools: Measurement of State Variations in Achievement," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(2), pages 179-201.
  8. Eric A. Hanushek & Steven G. Rivkin, 1996. "Understanding the 20th Century Growth in U.S. School Spending," NBER Working Papers 5547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chizmar, John F & Zak, Thomas A, 1983. "Modeling Multiple Outputs in Educational Production Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 17-22, May.
  10. Hanushek, Eric A, 1986. "The Economics of Schooling: Production and Efficiency in Public Schools," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 1141-77, September.
  11. Bonesronning, Hans & Rattso, Jorn, 1994. "Efficiency variation among the Norwegian High Schools: Consequences of equalization policy," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 289-304.
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Dynamic pricing in the presence of consumer inertia

  • Zhao, Li
  • Tian, Peng
  • Xiangyong Li
Registered author(s):

    Customer behavior modeling has gained increasing attention in the context of dynamic pricing. As an important behavior phenomenon, consumer inertia refers to consumers' inherent tendency of purchase procrastination and may induce consumers to wait even when immediate purchase is optimal from an objective perspective. This paper studies a dynamic pricing problem for a monopolist firm selling perishable goods to consumers who may be influenced by inertia. We formulate this problem using the finite-horizon dynamic programming approach and derive the optimal dynamic pricing policy. We demonstrate that consumer inertia produces negative effects on firms' expected revenues and optimal prices, which are monotonically decreasing in both inertia depth and breadth. Through numerical illustrations, we further show that the marginal effects of inertia depth on optimal prices and expected revenues are decreasing, whereas the marginal effects of inertia breadth are increasing. Finally we propose some suggestions for firms to influence the level of consumer inertia.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 137-148

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:40:y:2012:i:2:p:137-148
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    1. Qian Liu & Garrett J. van Ryzin, 2008. "Strategic Capacity Rationing to Induce Early Purchases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1115-1131, June.
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    3. Kevork, Ilias S., 2010. "Estimating the optimal order quantity and the maximum expected profit for single-period inventory decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 218-227, June.
    4. Franses,Philip Hans & Paap,Richard, 2010. "Quantitative Models in Marketing Research," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521143653, December.
    5. Kapil Bawa, 1990. "Modeling Inertia and Variety Seeking Tendencies in Brand Choice Behavior," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 263-278.
    6. Kim, Sang-Won & Bell, Peter C., 2011. "Optimal pricing and production decisions in the presence of symmetrical and asymmetrical substitution," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 528-538, October.
    7. Chang, Hung-Chi & Ho, Chia-Huei, 2010. "Exact closed-form solutions for "optimal inventory model for items with imperfect quality and shortage backordering"," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 233-237, June.
    8. Abel P. Jeuland, 1979. "Brand Choice Inertia as One Aspect of the Notion of Brand Loyalty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(7), pages 671-682, July.
    9. Moshe Givon, 1984. "Variety Seeking Through Brand Switching," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22.
    10. Garrett van Ryzin & Siddharth Mahajan, 1999. "On the Relationship Between Inventory Costs and Variety Benefits in Retail Assortments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(11), pages 1496-1509, November.
    11. Greenleaf, Eric A & Lehmann, Donald R, 1995. " Reasons for Substantial Delay in Consumer Decision Making," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 186-99, September.
    12. Kalyan Talluri & Garrett van Ryzin, 2004. "Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 15-33, January.
    13. Ward Hanson & Kipp Martin, 1996. "Optimizing Multinomial Logit Profit Functions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 992-1003, July.
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    15. Tsai, Wen-Hsien & Hung, Shih-Jieh, 2009. "Dynamic pricing and revenue management process in Internet retailing under uncertainty: An integrated real options approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 471-481, April.
    16. Yuri Levin & Jeff McGill & Mikhail Nediak, 2009. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Strategic Consumers and Oligopolistic Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 32-46, January.
    17. Xuanming Su, 2007. "Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 726-741, May.
    18. Z. John Zhang & Aradhna Krishna & Sanjay K. Dhar, 2000. "The Optimal Choice of Promotional Vehicles: Front-Loaded or Rear-Loaded Incentives?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 348-362, March.
    19. Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Vithala R. Rao, 1996. "Pricing Strategies in a Dynamic Duopoly: A Differential Game Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(11), pages 1501-1514, November.
    20. Yossi Aviv & Amit Pazgal, 2008. "Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 339-359, December.
    21. Paul Klemperer, 1987. "Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 375-394.
    22. Klemperer, Paul D, 1987. "Entry Deterrence in Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 99-117, Supplemen.
    23. Modarres, Mohammad & Sharifyazdi, Mehdi, 2009. "Revenue management approach to stochastic capacity allocation problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 442-459, January.
    24. Yang, Shilei & Shi, Chunming Victor & Zhao, Xuan, 2011. "Optimal ordering and pricing decisions for a target oriented newsvendor," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 110-115, January.
    25. Birger Wernerfelt, 1991. "Brand Loyalty and Market Equilibrium," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 229-245.
    26. P. B. Seetharaman & Hai Che, 2009. "Price Competition in Markets with Consumer Variety Seeking," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 516-525, 05-06.
    27. Lingxiu Dong & Panos Kouvelis & Zhongjun Tian, 2009. "Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control of Substitute Products," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 317-339, December.
    28. Ramasesh, Ranga V., 2010. "Lot-sizing decisions under limited-time price incentives: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 118-135, June.
    29. Gérard P. Cachon & Robert Swinney, 2009. "Purchasing, Pricing, and Quick Response in the Presence of Strategic Consumers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 497-511, March.
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An estimation of distribution algorithm for lot-streaming flow shop problems with setup times

  • Pan, Quan-Ke
  • Ruiz, Rubén
Registered author(s):

    Lot-streaming flow shops have important applications in different industries including textile, plastic, chemical, semiconductor and many others. This paper considers an n-job m-machine lot-streaming flow shop scheduling problem with sequence-dependent setup times under both the idling and no-idling production cases. The objective is to minimize the maximum completion time or makespan. To solve this important practical problem, a novel estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) is proposed with a job permutation based representation. In the proposed EDA, an efficient initialization scheme based on the NEH heuristic is presented to construct an initial population with a certain level of quality and diversity. An estimation of a probabilistic model is constructed to direct the algorithm search towards good solutions by taking into account both job permutation and similar blocks of jobs. A simple but effective local search is added to enhance the intensification capability. A diversity controlling mechanism is applied to maintain the diversity of the population. In addition, a speed-up method is presented to reduce the computational effort needed for the local search technique and the NEH-based heuristics. A comparative evaluation is carried out with the best performing algorithms from the literature. The results show that the proposed EDA is very effective in comparison after comprehensive computational and statistical analyses.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 166-180

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:40:y:2012:i:2:p:166-180
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    1. Hamed Samarghandi & Tarek Y. ElMekkawy, 2011. "An efficient hybrid algorithm for the two-machine no-wait flow shop problem with separable setup times and single server," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 111-131.
    2. Tseng, Chao-Tang & Liao, Ching-Jong, 2008. "A discrete particle swarm optimization for lot-streaming flowshop scheduling problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 360-373, December.
    3. Ruiz, Ruben & Stutzle, Thomas, 2007. "A simple and effective iterated greedy algorithm for the permutation flowshop scheduling problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 2033-2049, March.
    4. Quan-Ke Pan & Ling Wang, 2008. "A novel differential evolution algorithm for no-idle permutation flow-shop scheduling problems," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 279-297.
    5. Vallada, Eva & Ruiz, Rubén, 2010. "Genetic algorithms with path relinking for the minimum tardiness permutation flowshop problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 57-67, February.
    6. Walid Besbes & Jacques Teghem & Taicir Loukil, 2010. "Scheduling hybrid flow shop problem with non-fixed availability constraints," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(4), pages 413-433.
    7. Adel Manaa & Chengbin Chu, 2010. "Scheduling multiprocessor tasks to minimise the makespan on two dedicated processors," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 265-279.
    8. Ribas, Imma & Companys, Ramon & Tort-Martorell, Xavier, 2011. "An iterated greedy algorithm for the flowshop scheduling problem with blocking," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 293-301, June.
    9. Allahverdi, Ali & Gupta, Jatinder N. D. & Aldowaisan, Tariq, 1999. "A review of scheduling research involving setup considerations," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 219-239, April.
    10. Ruiz, Ruben & Maroto, Concepcion, 2005. "A comprehensive review and evaluation of permutation flowshop heuristics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 479-494, September.
    11. Kalir, Adar A. & Sarin, Subhash C., 2001. "A near-optimal heuristic for the sequencing problem in multiple-batch flow-shops with small equal sublots," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 577-584, December.
    12. Sterna, Malgorzata, 2011. "A survey of scheduling problems with late work criteria," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 120-129, April.
    13. Vickson, R. G., 1995. "Optimal lot streaming for multiple products in a two-machine flow shop," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 556-575, September.
    14. Ruiz, Rubén & Maroto, Concepciøn & Alcaraz, Javier, 2006. "Two new robust genetic algorithms for the flowshop scheduling problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 461-476, October.
    15. Allahverdi, Ali & Soroush, H.M., 2008. "The significance of reducing setup times/setup costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 978-984, June.
    16. Stanley Reiter, 1965. "A System for Managing Job-Shop Production," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 371.
    17. Rios-Mercado, Roger Z. & Bard, Jonathan F., 1998. "Heuristics for the flow line problem with setup costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 76-98, October.
    18. Jorge M.S. Valente & Jeffrey E. Schaller, 2010. "Improved heuristics for the single machine scheduling problem with linear early and quadratic tardy penalties," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 99-129.
    19. Allahverdi, Ali & Ng, C.T. & Cheng, T.C.E. & Kovalyov, Mikhail Y., 2008. "A survey of scheduling problems with setup times or costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 985-1032, June.
    20. Ruiz-Torres, Alex J. & Ho, Johnny C. & Ablanedo-Rosas, José H., 2011. "Makespan and workstation utilization minimization in a flowshop with operations flexibility," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 273-282, June.
    21. Martin, Clarence H, 2009. "A hybrid genetic algorithm/mathematical programming approach to the multi-family flowshop scheduling problem with lot streaming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 126-137, February.
    22. Zhang, Wei & Yin, Changyu & Liu, Jiyin & Linn, Richard J., 2005. "Multi-job lot streaming to minimize the mean completion time in m-1 hybrid flowshops," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 189-200, May.
    23. Rad, Shahriar Farahmand & Ruiz, Rubén & Boroojerdian, Naser, 2009. "New high performing heuristics for minimizing makespan in permutation flowshops," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 331-345, April.
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Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability

  • Jens Hilscher

    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

  • Alon Raviv

    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

This paper investigates the e¤ects of ?nancial institutions issuing contingent capital, a debt security that automatically converts into equity if assets fall below a predetermined threshold. We decompose bank liabilities into sets of barrier op- tions and present closed-form solutions for their prices. We quantify the reduction in default probability associated with issuing contingent capital instead of subor- dinated debt. We then show that appropriate choice of contingent capital terms (in particular the conversion ratio) can virtually eliminate stockholders?incentives to risk-shift, a motivation that is present when bank liabilities instead include ei- ther subordinated debt or additional equity. Importantly, risk-taking incentives continue to be weak during times of ?nancial distress. Our ?ndings imply that contingent capital may be an e¤ective tool for stabilizing ?nancial institutions.

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Paper provided by Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School in its series Working Papers with number 53.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision: Jan 2014
Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:53
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  1. Hart, Oliver & Zingales, Luigi, 2009. "A New Capital Regulation For Large Financial Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 1995. "A Framework for Valuing Corporate Securities," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 89, Stockholm School of Economics, revised Oct 1998.
  3. Nan Chen & Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri & Markus Pelger, 2013. "CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk," Working Papers 13-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
  4. Ing-Haw Cheng & Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman, 2010. "Yesterday's Heroes: Compensation and Creative Risk-Taking," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hayne E. Leland., 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-233, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. DeMarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2010. "Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensive," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2010_42, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  7. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. " Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-95, September.
  8. George Pennacchi, 2010. "A structural model of contingent bank capital," Working Paper 1004, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri, 2012. "Contingent Capital with a Capital-Ratio Trigger," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1816-1833, October.
  10. John, Kose & Mehran, Hamid & Qian, Yiming, 2010. "Outside monitoring and CEO compensation in the banking industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 383-399, September.
  11. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Edwardo S, 1978. "Corporate Income Taxes, Valuation, and the Problem of Optimal Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 103-14, January.
  12. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2010. "Market-Based Corrective Actions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 781-820, February.
  13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  14. Kenneth R. French & Martin N. Baily & John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane & Douglas W. Diamond & Darrell Duffie & Anil K Kashyap & Frederic S. Mishkin & Raghuram G. Rajan & David S. Scharfstein & Robe, 2010. "The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9261.
  15. Krainer, Robert E., 2012. "Regulating Wall Street: The Dodd–Frank Act and the New Architecture of Global Finance, a review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 121-133.
  16. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2012:i:1q:p:33-50:n:vol.98no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  19. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  20. Edward Simpson Prescott, 2012. "Contingent capital: the trigger problem," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 33-50.
  21. Martin N. Baily & John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane & Douglas W. Diamond & Darrell Duffie & Kenneth R. French & Anil K. Kashyap & Frederic S. Mishkin & Raghuram Rajan & David S. Scharfstein & Robert, 2013. "Aligning Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions: A Proposal by the Squam Lake Group," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(4), pages 37-40, December.
  22. Patrick Bolton & Frédéric Samama, 2012. "Capital access bonds: contingent capital with an option to convert," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 275-317, 04.
  23. Johnson, Shane A. & Tian, Yisong S., 2000. "The value and incentive effects of nontraditional executive stock option plans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 3-34, July.
  24. Ricardo J. Caballero & Pablo Kurlat, 2009. "The surprising origin and nature of financial crises: a macroeconomic policy proposal," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 19-68.
  25. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  26. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. " Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-54, June.
  27. Mark Broadie & Paul Glasserman & Steven Kou, 1997. "A Continuity Correction for Discrete Barrier Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 325-349.
  28. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  29. Kashyap, Anil K. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2008. "Rethinking capital regulation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 431-471.
  30. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
  31. Galai, Dan & Masulis, Ronald W., 1976. "The option pricing model and the risk factor of stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 53-81.
  32. Hamid Mehran & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2007. "The effect of employee stock options on bank investment choice, borrowing, and capital," Staff Reports 305, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  33. Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-60, November.
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