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Math Science

Mathematical Proof That the Cosmos Could Have Formed Spontaneously From Nothing 612

KentuckyFC writes: "One of the great theories of modern cosmology is that the universe began in a Big Bang. It's backed up by numerous lines of evidence, such as the cosmic microwave background and so on. But what caused the Big Bang, itself? For many years, cosmologists have fallen back on the idea that the universe formed spontaneously; that the Big Bang was result of quantum fluctuations in which the universe came into existence from nothing. But is this compatible with what we know about the Big Bang itself and the theories that describe it? Now cosmologists have come up with the first rigorous proof that the Big Bang could indeed have occurred spontaneously and produced the universe we see today. The proof is developed within a mathematical framework known as the Wheeler-DeWitt equation. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle allows a small region of empty space to come into existence probabilistically due to quantum fluctuations. Most of the time, such a bubble will collapse and disappear. The question these scientists address is whether a bubble could also expand exponentially to allow a universe to form in an irreversible way. Their proof (PDF) shows that this is indeed possible. There is an interesting corollary: the role of the cosmological constant is played by a property known as the quantum potential. This is a property introduced in the 20th century by the physicist David Bohm, which has the effect of making quantum mechanics deterministic while reproducing all of its predictions. It's an idea that has never caught on. Perhaps that will change now."
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Mathematical Proof That the Cosmos Could Have Formed Spontaneously From Nothing

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  • by marcello_dl ( 667940 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @09:37AM (#46724423) Homepage Journal

    If you make implementation details about the initial condition of an universe proof that such an universe has no superior level, you are already so ridiculous that punching people in the face is probably the best you can do.

  • by Ricyteach ( 2565289 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @09:42AM (#46724491)
    Physicists seem to have a curious definition of "nothing" (see Lawrence Krauss' book).
  • by jellomizer ( 103300 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @09:45AM (#46724523)

    So we see evidence of a seeming Miraculous event in the universe. One that seems to defy logic. And you use it as a time to get angry at people who believe in God.

    Is your atheism so week, that you fall back on violence if confronted with evidence that seems to force you to realign your belief structure.
    So tell me again how atheist are better than religious people?
    Or is it that you are just as human as the rest of us, and will strongly hold onto our belief structure and get very angry when something dissuades it.

  • by Ricyteach ( 2565289 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @09:51AM (#46724579)
    In "God and the Astronomers", agnostic Robert Jastrow chronicles the development of the Big Bang theory, and how for decades many physicists resisted it; not because of data, but because it meant the universe had a beginning, which was at odds with their worldview (“The Cosmos is all that is or was or ever will be." --Karl Sagan). They recognized that if there was ever truly NOTHING, that science would never be able to explain why there is SOMETHING. The question of origins is outside the reach of scientific inquiry. I wish the physicists would stop playing in the philosophical and theological sandbox.
  • by TrollstonButterbeans ( 2914995 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @09:59AM (#46724673)
    So "nothing" has quantum fluctuations.

    I have zero apples, which one will produce an apple seed to grow a tree.

    Note: The article itself doesn't imply what the summary says, but the summary here makes the article seem like nonsense.
  • by MikeRT ( 947531 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @10:02AM (#46724693)

    But it is proof that disproving Aquinas's argument that no physical phenomena can arise ex nihilo is currently beyond the capacity of science, mathematics and philosophy.

  • Re:Nothing (Score:5, Interesting)

    by jythie ( 914043 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @10:26AM (#46724951)
    Well, adding 'zero' to the number system was a pretty big deal about nothing.
  • by Hentai ( 165906 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @10:29AM (#46724977) Homepage Journal

    So the guy at the PC said to himself "Thank you for nothing, guys" and went making himself coffee.

    Well, what else were they supposed to do? They're DETERMINISTIC. Their entire existence is based on THE DETERMINISTIC APPLICATION OF RULES, right?

    So if the guy at the PC is butthurt, maybe he should have picked different rules or different initial conditions, right? Because once you hit 'run' you can't really blame the process for giving you its output.

  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @10:36AM (#46725041) Journal
    Math proofs are based on a set of axioms or starting assumptions. All the mathematical proofs are simply inevitable consequences of the axioms, that is all. Every mathematical proofs say, "this is consistent with your original assumptions". That is all, nothing more, nothing less.

    I remember reading about an European mathematician who set out to prove that Euclidean geometry was the only possible geometry. He came up with lemma after lemma, conjecture after conjecture, but no matter how hard he tried he could not prove non-Euclidean geometry could not exist. All those proofs, lemmas and work on conjectures formed the mainstay of the branch of non-Eucledian Geometry.

    So all the math proof tells you is, if you make a set of assumptions, cosmos could be created spontaneously.

  • by meta-monkey ( 321000 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @10:50AM (#46725181) Journal

    I've always been surprised at people who give consideration to the simulation argument, but none to God. If we're living in a simulation (which I think is decently probable, relativity and wave/particle duality being emergent properties of programming kludges to save cycles), then this simulation was created by someone. That someone would be omnipotent and omniscient with regards to this reality, exists outside of this reality, and created this reality. That's the definition of God. God is the Programmer.

  • by aaaaaaargh! ( 1150173 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @11:25AM (#46725611)

    "superior level"???

    Why not talk about about the great Matma, an inferior level, the mysterious Wumpus, or the Flying Spaghetti monster instead?

  • by meta-monkey ( 321000 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @11:34AM (#46725697) Journal

    , I could easily design a better and more just system

    For some value of "better." You have no idea what the Programmer's motive and design goal is. We simulate un-perfect worlds all the time. This could all be a game of World of Warcraft for higher dimensional beings. Azeroth is a pretty fucked-up place because if it were all peaceful and just the game would be boring. We would have no more understanding of the Programmer than my WoW character has of me.

    We simulate our own universe, too, to try to understand it better. This could just be a much, much more high-fidelity simulation of the Programmer's universe.

    It could even be an experiment to see if simulated beings, shown a perfect paradise and expelled from it could, left to their own devices, re-create that same paradise after being shown an example of perfect love and sacrifice. In that case, Jesus was the Programmer's avatar in this reality, and Christianity is true.

  • by meta-monkey ( 321000 ) on Friday April 11, 2014 @12:01PM (#46726113) Journal

    I'm never sure if I want there to be an afterlife or not. And I'm Catholic. I have faith in God, but I can never know.

    Really, what bothers me more than anything is the concept of hell. The exact nature of hell isn't really laid out in the Bible. It's described as being cut off from God and his goodness, permanently, which would be torment to us who were created by Him. But that doesn't tell you if it's really lakes of fire and demons with pitchforks (which was really just Dante's depiction that inspired everyone who came after), or if it's just some shitty shanty town...or if it's this reality we're in right now. But, if it is the whole 'torturing forever' thing, first thing I'm doing when I get to heaven is I'm tugging on God's cape and saying, "hey, can we get those people out of there?" I have no idea how I'm supposed to party forever in heaven with Jesus if there's even one soul suffering in hell.

    While I have faith in God, I also kinda hope I'm wrong and there's simply nothing after death, because I would rather have there be nothing for me than torture for anyone.

"The hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who, in times of moral crisis, preserved their neutrality." -- Dante


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Misery still loves company

September 1, 2013

Got a message from a reader named Harlin Harris, who has a 2007 La Vita 150. He’d like to hear from other La Vita owners, so if you’d like to get in touch with him, click here.

The La Vita had so much potential, but ultimately failed due to a lack of resources and dealer support. Still, the potential market for a scooter combining old-skool styling with a modern powertrain is quite large. It’s not a question of if, but when, a major scooter company will offer such a bike in the U.S. Sooner than you might think, actually.

While I haven’t been posting much lately, I’m still here, and always enjoy hearing from you. Go to the Communicate page and you will find a handy form to send e-mail. Scootin’ Old Skool can also be found on Twitter, Facebook and even Pinterest. Which reminds me, I should pin something… Favicon

  1. September 1, 2013 3:11 pm

    Orin, here in Portugal they use to sell La Vitas (as “EU-R Bee” ) for Eur.1.800. I saw them when they first came and had the same impressions as you: it´s a good idea and it deserved to be a little bit more supported. I guess that problems were mainly due to a poor quality control, and a total absence of a marketing plan.
    I visited the importer here in Portugal back in 2010 and at that time they had a lot of scooters to sell with a large stock of replacement parts.
    I think that they still sell new ones, and you can see a lot of them on independent sellers, selling them as new, 0 kms. But the price is always the same. Eur.1800.
    Truth is that we don´t see them on the streets.

    (Lisbon, Portugal)

  2. joek permalink
    September 1, 2013 10:27 pm

    check out gekco’s website, looks like they are selling a 50cc? model made by linhai

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Mark Driscoll’s ‘Discernment’

August 24, 2010

Some time back I wrote on Mark Driscoll as scholar and exegete after his ham-fisted abuse of Targum Neofiti in a talk we shall loosely describe as a sermon.

Today we get a look at him as, uh, a preacher… I guess. Anyways, he feels the need to warn his congregation about Twilight because he wants them to be ‘discerning’.

I am reminded of the line in Princess Bride, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Did Driscoll convert to Pentecostalism or something? Did he read This Present Darkness? And exactly how does he know so much about Satan and demons and what they are doing?

I have neither the time nor desire to fully deconstruct it, because let’s be honest, there is a ton of things I could write, but let me help with your ‘discernment’ for a couple of minutes.

  • There are no such things as Vampires and Werewolves. Don’t worry
  • A demon did not start Mormonism
  • There’s no apple in Genesis one ‘pastor’ Mark
  • The real problem with Twilight has nothing to do with ‘demons’ or ‘Mormonism’; however, literary criticism and critical thinking are hard (impossible for Driscoll?) so he goes the easy ‘demon’ route. The actual problem with the book, and I say this as a father of two girls one who is a teenager, is the unhealthy dating models and hyper-infatuation that is supposedly ‘love’ that young girls are being exposed and inculcated into. Bella is a whiny loser who allows herself to be terribly treated, and puts herself in danger for an infatuated relationship. Lessons I do not want my daughters to learn.
  • If you go into a bookstore you will find this in the ‘fantasy’ genre. Get a grip.
  • Of course, this sort of criticism comes from the same guy who suggested Avatar is the most satanic film he has ever seen. Could you actually be more non-discerning? There are competing meta-narratives that create meaning and understanding for some people, but any of these meta-narratives that are different than mine are satanic. Well played Mark.

19 Comments leave one →
  1. Chris E permalink
    August 24, 2010 9:10 am

    This was actually worse than I thought it would be – though he has form on taking sermons and stretching them into soapboxes.

    Doug Wilson’s review of Twilight in CredendaAgenda was a perceptive take, this wasn’t.

  2. August 24, 2010 9:20 am

    why these loons get worked up over FICTION is just beyond reason. twilight, potter, etc. they’re make believe. how is that different than lewis and his fantasy or the hobbit and all that stuff.

    come one. driscoll just wants more publicity. like so many mega church megaphiles, he’s a publicity whore.

    • August 24, 2010 9:54 am

      I was reading this post with interest (since I’m a worship pastor in the A29 network) and truthfully I understood some of Scott’s critique (though I think harsh and a bit tongue in cheek) but this comment is really pathetic. Ironic to see this comment on a post critiquing discernment that you’d level that kinda of lame, weak accusation…”publicity whore”. It’s like reading a pastoral critique from TMZ. Nice. I’m due back at the big kids table now.

      • WenatcheeTheHatchet permalink
        August 25, 2010 4:02 pm

        It’s too bad Driscoll’s sermons lend themselves so well to the soundbite/sketch clip idiom, though, because that is what makes the accusation of attention whore s0 unfortunately credible. I am not sure how many people remember the actual sermon content in which the Avatar rant happened. Driscoll himself may not actually be an attention whore … but if he’s not the editors of the clips of his sermons do nothing to dispel this suspicion. 😦

        Furthermore, if we consider how Driscoll himself is glib and dismissive there’s a very real sense in which Jim’s comments are just an example of Driscoll reaping what he sows. This is one of the most troubling things for Driscoll fans to accept but as some pretty conservative guys like Steve Camp (and probably John Macarthur) have shown, when the shoe is on the other foot Driscoll fans don’t like Driscoll being talked about the way he talks about other people.

      • August 26, 2010 1:22 pm

        they let you at the big kids table? that’s surprising.

    • brgulker permalink
      August 31, 2010 12:58 pm

      You’re wrong, I think. Mark really does believe what he’s saying. Your critique is completely off base.

  3. August 24, 2010 10:20 am

    I pointed this out elsewhere. He dismisses the book The Sorceress based on the title. Does he do the same for The Magician’s Nephew?? Or does the fact it was written by C.S Lewis trump the title?

  4. August 24, 2010 11:35 am

    Mark Driscoll is a gifted guy. But some of his staunch attitudes strike me as spiritual abuse rather than ‘spurring one another on to love and good deeds’.

  5. August 24, 2010 12:32 pm

    Wonder what he’d say about my Demonoid account?

  6. August 24, 2010 1:37 pm

    He’s actually got a nice amiable speaking style, too bad he is commenting on material he obviously hasn’t read. Perhaps we could call him the friendly face of neo-fundamentalism – his message certainly puts him in the isolationist camp. Sad.

    • WenatcheeTheHatchet permalink
      August 24, 2010 3:07 pm

      This may be a habit of his, commenting on material he hasn’t actually read. A few people weren’t sure that Driscoll actually bothered to really read The Shack before launching a campaign against it from the pulpit. My concern over the last ten years is not so much that he didn’t read The Shack himself but that he read it and has a tin ear for poetry and allegory.

  7. August 24, 2010 2:56 pm

    first-crush age (which is where they seem aimed) is not, I think, noted for discernment in any respect. I’ve only seen the first of the films, not read any of the books, but the only thing that worried me was a sense of terminal boredom.

  8. WenatcheeTheHatchet permalink
    August 24, 2010 6:18 pm

    As far as spiritual warfare stuff goes Driscoll has commended William Gurnall’s The Christian in Full Armor in the last few years. He may or may not have picked this up by way of J. I. Packer. Driscoll’s fondness for the Puritans might have led him to Gurnall anyway but I do know he’s commended the book to church members for studying the subject of spiritual warfare.

  9. Michael B permalink
    August 25, 2010 6:37 am

    Maybe I’m just looking for things to be cynical about (which is pretty par for the course on the Internet), but what was the point of the several minutes of book covers? Was there a point beyond preteen girls have bad taste in literature? It felt more like an opportunity for Mark to get exasperated for the sake of some laughs.

  10. A Reader permalink
    August 25, 2010 11:45 am

    May his tribe decrease. The last thing the church needs is more people like Driscoll. Tyrants/demagogues in pastors’ clothing.

  11. Headless Unicorn Guy permalink
    September 7, 2010 8:18 pm

    Seems to me “Discernment” in Christianese means “DEMONS! DEMONS! WITCHCRAFT!!!!!!!”

    And “Discernment Ministry” means “Witchfinders-General”.

    Ten years ago it was Harry Potter.

    Twenty-thirty years ago it was Dungeons & Dragons.

    Fifty-sixty years ago it was EC Comics.

    • WenatcheeTheHatchet permalink
      October 20, 2010 1:36 am

      Ironically I know a few guys at Mars Hill who play DnD and have played it for years.

  12. phil_style permalink
    September 8, 2010 9:46 am

    Oh dear driscoll. His flannel shirt is more evil than those books. I’d rather he disputed this stuff becasue it’s crap literature… not becasue it’s inspired by some kind of devil.

    • Headless Unicorn Guy permalink
      September 30, 2010 10:38 am

      When all you have is a hammer…

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Yom Kippur: The Day of Atonement

October 26, 2012

There is a story I came across in the Talmud related to the Day of Atonement that some Christians like to attempt to use as a tool for converting Jewish persons.

In ancient times the Jewish High Priest would take two goats, and throw lots to determine which one was the scapegoat.

ASIDE: they are throwing lots, to put the sins of the community on a *goat*, so they can have those ‘sins’ go out into the desert and die… this is the spot where all of your skeptical dashboard lights concerning ancient understandings of “reality” should start going off!

Back to the post!

The sins of the entire community were put on the ‘lucky’ creature who ‘won’ the lot, and he was led out in the wilderness to die. In addition, the High Priest put a crimson thread on this scapegoat, and he hung a similar thread on the gates of the Temple as well. Apparently, at some point, the thread that hung on the gates of the Temple would turn white signaling the forgiveness of the people’s sin.

Yomah 39b relates this story:

Forty years before the Temple was destroyed, the lot never came into the right hand, the red wool did not become white, the western light did not burn, and the gates of the Temple opened of themselves, till the time that R. Johanan b. Zakkai rebuked them, saying: “Temple, Temple, why alarmest thou us? We know that thou art destined to be destroyed. For of thee hath prophesied Zechariah ben Iddo [Zech. xi. 1]: ‘Open thy doors, O Lebanon, and the fire shall eat thy cedars.’

Can anyone tell me what happened 40 years before the destruction of the Temple around 30 C.E.?

For the Christian apologist: the Talmud says that 40 years before the destruction of the Second Temple (70 CE) the crimson wool stopped turning white. Ergo, Jesus died (circa 30 CE), and became the atonement for sins, which proves that the old atonement system is invalid.

Obviously, that sort of apologetic is ridiculously forced if you have a personal relationship with reality, but even more so considering the number forty in Hebrew constructive memory. If you are a fundamentalist of a certain worldview and reading persuasion you might want to stop reading right now because I’m going to use a word you don’t like very much: symbolic. There, I said it. As you may or may not know the number forty is highly symbolic in the ancient Hebrew writings. Primarily I can think of three ways. 1) it is the duration of a generation 2) it represents a period of testing 3) it represents a time of change brought around by God’s strength.

When the Mishna was redacted/compiled by Judah HaNasi the whole Christian thing wasn’t exactly a secret. And to say that the rabbis were pedantic in their argumentation would be an understatement. If there was something in the text that pointed to Yeshua the Nazarene as the Son of God and as the Atonement for the world I’m pretty sure they would have noticed it. These guys knew their sacred texts in ways that would put most modern Christians to shame. It would not have “slipped their attention.”

It seems to me that the Rabbis were so involved in some sort of defense of ‘God’ and the destruction of the Temple that they employed this highly symbolic language to show that not only did they know the Temple was to be destroyed but that God himself was responsible.

One Comment leave one →
  1. Robert permalink
    October 30, 2012 4:51 pm

    No doubt the red dye was bleached out by ultraviolet light. Not that they understood stuff like that back then!

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Sleeping Enough is More Important Than Early-Rising

I’m a fan of early-rising as a productivity tool. I would argue that most people have the strongest motivation to work in the morning or afternoon hours, so waking up earlier means you can gain productive time.

There is also something psychological about waking up early. When you successfully achieve the goal of getting out of bed early, that gives you some momentum for all the other things you need to do in a day.

However, I think there is an important exception to this mantra of early rising. That is that sleep is more important than waking up early. Early rising only works if you are able to go to bed earlier, I believe getting your full sleep for a night trumps any early-rising considerations.

Why I’m (Now) an Inconsistent Early Riser

A few years ago, I wrote a few articles on waking up early and the benefits to productivity. At the time of those articles, I was rising pretty consistently at 5:30 or 6:00am. I have even gone for thirty-day stretches waking up early every single day, even on weekends.

However, now I would say I’m an inconsistent early riser at best. Today I woke up at 6:45, and yesterday I woke up at 6:15, but other times I sleep in well past 10am.

The reason for my switch isn’t out of laziness. Although I have had stumbles with habits before, they are usually pretty easy to fix. The switch is because I’ve found the early-rising habit isn’t ideal, at least when practiced on a consistent basis, in my life anymore.

Early Rising is Great, Having Enough Sleep is Better

Early rising is a great habit, provided your evenings are relatively quiet. When my life revolves around work or studies, going to bed earlier to compensate for early rising is a decent trade off. However, if I’m traveling, socializing or partying, it’s almost impossible to keep it up.

I’ve since realized that, whatever the benefits of waking up a bit earlier are, they are trumped by missing sleep. If waking up early starts your day with +1, having a serious sleep deficit starts your day off at -5.

Getting enough sleep for me means at least 8 hours. I’m not someone who can get by for more than a few days on 4 hours per night of sleep. I can’t even get by with six hours.

I think my abandonment of the consistent early-rising schedule is a by-product of my life getting more complex (and interesting). When my entire focus was self-development and work, it fit nicely. Now that my focus has shifted to social-development and more far-reaching goals, it comes up short.

Inconsistent Early Rising is the Alternative

My solution has been to become an inconsistent early riser. Which means that most of the time, when life keeps me up past 10-11pm, I’ll focus on getting as much of my 8 hours as I can.

However, when my focus needs to shift mostly to work, I can wake up early those days to get the productivity-enabling benefits.

This week, for example, I had several group assignments, 7.5 hours at school each day, a new product launch, blog writing and errands with the French bureaucracy to complete my visa work. Waking up early yesterday and today have helped me chew away at my weekly goals list fast enough that I should still be able to relax on the weekend.

The disadvantage of inconsistency is it requires more discipline to get up early. When I had trained myself to wake up at 5:30 without fail, I never pressed the snooze button. I always awoke on the first ring. Today, however I hit it once or twice before finally getting up.

I think if I were to go back to a mostly-work focus for a longer period of time, such as a month or two, I might try the early-riser schedule again. But, for now, getting enough sleep wins out as the best way to stay healthy and sane.

  • Toomas

    Had the same problem. I’ve been on this inconsistent schedule for over a year now, must say, it’s not healthy. Our body likes consistency, that way a structured sleeping pattern can form. 8 hours of sleep will then do much more than 8 hours of sleep in an inconsistent sleeping pattern.

    In a few weeks I’ll be trying out always waking up at 9am, so it’s consistent and yet I have my necessary hours of sleep.

  • Heather

    My plan for December was to wake up at 8am every day. That didn’t happen (largely because most nights I’m awake until 1am), but on the days where it was necessary I still managed. Somehow though, when I do that, the entire rest of the week (bar one or two days) leaves me sleeping until 10-12am. Not a good system!

    Have to agree though, getting enough sleep always makes me feel better than waking earlier on not enough.

  • Stefan |

    Finally, somebody is saying it. Early rising is seen as the ultimate productivity tool, and if you are an early riser, you are productive and you can conquer the world. That is how it is shown on the internet.
    But of course, early rising doesn’t work for college students. How could you wake up at 5.30am if there are nights that you are partying until that time in the morning?

    I like what you said about inconsistently early rising. Because obviously, I won’t be a consistent, but inconsistent should probably work for me. Think I should try it out sometime!

  • Dave

    I would argue that sleep consistency is as important as the amount of sleep. Simply put, if you have a night-life, early rising is probably not for you. If you insist on waking earlier during the week than on weekends, I would gradually adjust (no more than an hour earlier, 3 hrs later a day).

    Early rising is usually the first thing someone who gets involved with PD; I personally believe early rising is one of personal development artifacts, that seem interesting and appealing but is often inconvenient to implement. I fortunately never fell for anything like that (as I’m typing in dvorak because I don’t want to relearn qwerty lol).

  • Armen Shirvanian

    Hi Scott.

    I gladly agree with you. It is better to sleep to normal time than wake up early with not enough sleep. It might feel cool for a few minutes after waking up, but then you are tired the rest of the day, so it is pretty worthless.

    I usually always wake up around 7, basically all the time, unless some non-standard item kept me up a bit late.

    Once in a while I get up a little earlier to run with the sun coming up, but usually I run or bball in the evening.

    Relevant point here.

  • Benny the Irish polyglot

    Have you ever tried biphasic sleeping? I think the 8 hour pattern was just forced on us during the industrial revolution and before this we actually slept several times a day, which is more natural for our bodies.
    Even with a modern schedule this is possible; a 20 minute siesta where you have REM sleep (takes practise but can be achieved and is worth the investment) means that you actually only need 5-6 hours at night to get the equivalent of a one block 8 hour session. You don’t actually “need” 8 hours; it’s a chain of deep sleep (unnecessary) versus spikes of REM sleep (that actually rest you). So you are getting the same restfulness in less time if you split it up.
    Ever since I started having brief siestas in the afternoon, I’ve not only had more energy in the afternoon because of them (it’s like getting an adrenaline injection!) but I’ve become an early riser simply because I don’t actually need to sleep any more than what I already have. 🙂
    If I go out to party I can still get up early and just extend my siesta a little more – I get up easily because my body knows that it only has to wait a few hours for the next sleep time, whereas most people have to wait a huge 16 hours for their next chance.
    It’s your body’s natural rhythm! Short naps have dramatically improved my day. Even when I wasn’t freelance, I’d use the one hour lunch break and find a quiet room near where I worked and nap for 20 minutes and still have 30-40 minutes to eat and socialise.
    It’s something that I’m very much convinced about; I’ll write a post about it soon enough since people have a lot of misunderstanding when it comes to afternoon naps.

  • Shelly

    I think this is something that is quite subjective, however, on a personal level I have also experimented with early rising and found that getting enough sleep is more important. I have found that I need at least 8 and a half hours to be fully rested. If I want to wake early, this means planning my bedtime to ensure I get a full sleep time. If I have to stay up late, and wake early the next day sometimes I do compromise, but try to get a full 8.5 hours wherever possible.

  • Ian Nuttall

    I agree to an extent that sleeping enough is more important and outweighs the benefit of early rising.

    The main point for me is that “sleeping enough” is very different from person to person. You need 8 hours. I only need 6. One guy I know has two young children, runs a successful boxing fitness consultancy and works out like an absolutely maniac pretty much every day and he does it all on no more than 5 hours sleep.

    It’s something that everyone has to judge for themselves. For me, if I am in bed for anywhere between 10pm and 11pm, then I know that rising at 5-5.30am is achievable and I’ll feel great and be very productive.

    For you, well, you’ll need to test it for yourself and see what your sleep time to performance threshold is.

    Good post and well written. Thanks!

  • Richard Shelmerdine

    I agree that sleeping enough is more important than getting up early but why not just get up at a fixed time every day to be in line with your circadian rhythms? I suppose you could organize your social activities around this but it’s hard at a young age because everyone wants to socialize late. Nice post Scott.

  • Scott Young

    Agreed, perhaps biphasic is a better alternative. I haven’t officially experimented with it, so I can’t say whether it beats the full-day alternative.

    My only critique of zany sleep schedules is that they tend to interfere with other people’s schedules. That’s the reason Steve Pavlina stopped polyphasic sleep and one reason I’ve found early rising isn’t always a win.

    But you have got me interested in maybe doing a trial!

  • Niko

    I also was getting up at 5.30am consistently last summer (when going to bed between 11-12) and since I really was able to accomplish a huge workload in the morning I was full of energy + happy about the finished stuff. In the afternoon, especially after lunch, I got sleepy – but, as Benny writes, napping saved the day! Check out this link on “How to nap” :
    , a compact explanation about how it works, and how to do it best. Before I always thought “I am not the napping kind of guy”, beacause I felt even more sleepy after having to get up after only 20-30mins. But with a little practise it really started to work. Woth a try 🙂

  • AHA

    Read TS Wiley.

  • AHA

    More specifically the book Lights out.

  • Benny the Irish polyglot

    Glad to see you are curious Scott! 😉
    I also tried polyphasic sleep and I agree that (despite the benefits in extra time) it is quite antisocial, and even boring to have that extra time at night with noone around.
    However biphasic sleep does work well once you get the hang of it!
    I just tell my mates that I’m going for a quick nap and then come back 20 minutes later rejuvinated 🙂
    Since it’s only once a day and in the 2-3pm lull when *everyone* is a little groggy (your body temperature naturally drops and your blood is being diverted from your brain to your stomach to help with digestion), you’re ditching people for the short time of the day when they are slightly less interesting anyway 😛
    I stay up late (usually 1am) and get up early (about 6:30) every day of the week thanks to this. I can go out until 3-4 and then “sleep in” until 8-9.
    I’d highly recommend you give it a try. It’s a little easier to get into it in the summer when it’s warmer though. It took me about a week of time wasting and unrestful naps before I adjusted and could control them. Now I wake up after the 20 minutes without an alarm clock; my body has been programmed 😀
    Note that coffee drinking should be abandoned since it messes up your ability to control when you want to sleep; a little hard in coffee culture France I’ll admit 😛

  • Scott Young

    I’m basically caffeine free aside from the occasional soda or cup of tea, never coffee.

    Maybe when my schedule gets a bit more predictable I’ll give biphasic a whirl. I don’t think integration would be too difficult, and it may be a superior solution to the lack of sleep conundrum many face.

  • Oscar

    Yes! It’s easy to gain sleep debt but extremely hard to get it back. I too prefer getting up early but only if I can get enough sleep (usually 8+ hours)

  • Rose

    I’m hoping that once I’ve trained myself to get up with my alarm, I can set it later on some days and still get up as soon as it goes off.
    Luckily, I only need 6 hours or so to sleep, but shall bear overall sleep in mind while testing the “early rising” theory.
    Thanks for posting,

  • Lauren

    I personally do not believe that waking up early is ideal. I think humans are designed to wake up later in the day, but agree with you that sleeping at least 8 hours is absolutely crucial if you want to be at your best. Speaking from someone who just got 8 hours of sleep (which normally doesn’t happen), it’s amazing to see the difference in my attitude and outlook. I just feel better in every way, even though there are plenty of things to be down or indifferent about. The challenge is getting to bed at a decent time, which can only be done through self-discipline.

  • Jonny |

    Great post but I have to disagree with th at least 8 hours part.

    I recently spent 4 hours researching how to hack sleep most effectively from all the studies that were out there and came up with the 3 key sleep hacks that collated what almost all the studies agreed on and were actually applicable. Some of it is surprising but backed up by over 50 years of research.

    For those interested you can check it out here

  • nXqd

    Yup. I love early-rising just because at that time , we can work efficiently, get my MIT done ASAP and I can do them with high concentration.
    So I try to sleep at 10 pm every night as I can. Sometimes, I work really well from 0:00 AM to 2:00 AM. But I’ll wake up at about 9 AM unless I’ll feel terrible, this feeling almost kills my day. I’ll sleep later 3 or 4 hours.
    Let me guess 8 hours vs 5 hours + 4 hours. You lose your day and time 🙂

  • Olle Linge

    I don’t think being an early-riser is very important, but I do think that going up at the same time every morning is of paramount importance. I try to find a time which works okay both for weekdays and for weekends, when partying, travelling or something else might be on the menu. Right now, I don’t have any classes before 10, so I usually sleep between 2 AM and 8 AM, which works very well. I find that this has been extremely useful in cutting down on sleeping time and yet newer feeling that I don’t get enough sleep.

    In other words, I don’t really think the inconsistency in your method is very good, although I do of course do it myself sometimes, recognising the fact that sometimes getting enough sleep is indeed more important than most other things.

  • Steve-Personal Success Factors

    It seems to me that different people have different capacities when it comes to the amount of sleep they get. I would also agree with you, Scott, that feeling that you need to have a rigid rule of getting up at a certain time is unrealistic for many people in different phases of life. I personally need a minimum of 7 hours of sleep to function well. And when I don’t get that time, I need my afternoon power nap. But the power nap is only a cheap substitute for 7-8 hours of deep restful sleep.

  • Paul Montwill – Switch Stories

    Sleeping 7-8 hours and waking up earlier requires a lot of discipline but on the onther hand, if we consider an early morning time as the most productive, then there is no point to work in the late evenings.

  • shreevidya

    I agree with you..

  • Alibek Kuanyshbek

    People must sleep between 4-8 hours, at least 4 hours , not more than 8 hours, if we want to be healthy

  • Alibek Kuanyshbek

    People must sleep between 4-8 hours, at least 4 hours , not more than 8 hours, if we want to be healthy


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15 November 2013

Google Books
I've Already Said What I Can

I'm not going to say much about The Hon. Denny Chin's decision on fair use yesterday in the Google Books matter (PDF); I largely already have. I think it was incorrect... but that he was driven to it by fundamental conceptual errors in the suit's structure and theoretical basis, by less-than-optimal lawyering, by both subtle and not-so-subtle institutional arrogance in the Second Circuit bar, and by a variety of other, non-merits factors (such as poor presentation of evidence in the briefs by all parties concerned). His decision is not indefensible — merely incorrect, at least as to some subsets of books at issue.

The actual Google Books litigation was and is the wrong1 theory propounded by the wrong party and the wrong lawyers against an incomplete set of defendants in the wrong court. It shouldn't surprise anyone that an opinion resulting from that set of missteps makes missteps of its own, primarily by downplaying the fact/expression distinction as it relates to three of the four statutory fair use factors. Of course, Judge Chin was invited to do so by the parties... and one can hardly blame him for deciding on the basis of the record before him, however conceptually flawed that record was. Unfortunately, copyright interests probably (not certainly, but probably) do not rise to the "civil rights" level that requires certain sua sponte inquiries; imagine for a moment that this matter directly (instead of indirectly) concerned First Amendment speech rights, with the attendant "no prior restraint" doctrine, and what a judge might have done with that.

Ultimately, Google successfully invited B'rer Fox into the courtroom briar patch and demonstrated both that (a) the Authors' Guild's arrogance in presuming to represent all authors' interests meant that it couldn't represent any coherent set of authors' interests well, and (b) the nonstatutory fifth fair-use factor — administrative convenience — will in practice (and especially in the Second Circuit) overwhelm the others.

And that's it from me on the substance. Next up will be an appeal to the Second Circuit, which I expect to reverse in part... but on Rule 56 grounds, not on copyright-law grounds. That is, this is now a civil procedure case, not a copyright case; the real question in front of the Second Circuit will be whether the record in front of Judge Chin presents undisputed material facts. The briefs in front of Judge Chin did a remarkably poor job of engaging with the factual record (let alone reflecting adequate factual investigation), so there's a lot of room here. Then there's the question of whether the Second Circuit's prior guidance to consider fair use before class certification will stand on Supreme Court review; this is not at all certain, particularly if the Supreme Court's membership changes before this case reaches it (I put the over/under in the 2015 Term, beginning October 2015, for the petition for certiorari).

  1. Not "morally wrong," but "factually and theoretically suboptimal enough to result in unreliable inferences." If that sounds like something coming from some high-falutin' science lab, it is; I may be able to escape the smell of certain thiols, but I can't wash the thought process out so easily once exposed to it.


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Google Brings Anti-Virus Scanning to Gmail

Word from Gmail team at Google this afternoon that they’ve just launches anti-virus scanning to the service for all incoming and outgoing attachments. More about how it works here. No word if they are using they’re own virus scanning software or licensing it from a third party.

Yahoo Mail includes anti-virus scanning and cleaning software from Norton. Hotmail also offers anti-virus scanning.

Postscript: Via a Google spokesperson, we’ve learned that the Gmail anti-virus scanning software is coming from a third party. However, Google would not name the company.

Want to discuss this new Gmail service? Check out this thread in the Sew Forums.

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happy feet

I’ve mentioned how picky dancers can be about their leotards, their pointe shoes, and their diet.  But, for me, no stronger proclivity exists than that of my selectiveness when it comes to socks.  I have been known to wear exclusively unmatching socks, like the tragic result of a greedy dryer, but on purpose.  Why, you ask?  I wish I had a proper response, but I suppose I’m just an odd duck.

As a child (I’ve been told) my sneakered, booted, and mary-janed days included nothing short of twenty shoe-removal-sock-adjustment breaks.  My little feet just couldn’t bear the feeling of a thick seam traversing the tips of my toes, a wrinkle under the metatarsal, or- mon dieu!- the dreaded heel slip.  Talk about a brat Princess and the Pea situation…

Despite a rather complicated relationship with socks, I remain a big fan of the shoes that require them- which is far broader a list than one might imagine, especially if you’ve got bunions to consider.  I was recently given the opportunity to try out some nifty (and I mean nifty) socks from Kushyfoot, and these babies are special.

The basic athletic foot covers have been getting a lot of use this summer.  I tend to wear canvas sneakers with everything from dresses to shorts to jeans (you never know what kinds of off-roading adventures may await) and these little guys make the insides of my shoes feel super soft and, well, cushy.  I love that they provide a long enough vamp to wrap up the gorgeous bones protruding from my big toes (most no-show socks cut straight through) but remain completely invisible under the shoe.  Win, win.

Of course when I’m not wearing canvas sneakers (re: trying to be a bit shmancier), it’s usually some form of leather flats or suede smoking slippers, with the black version of the classic slip-on, because what’s a nighttime shoe without a coordinating sock?  Hashtag Sock Brat.

The flats-to-go are pretty brilliant.  While definitely not designed for long-time wear or rough terrain, they would be a complete life saver for those nights when I’m feeling brave and spicy enough to wear heels*, and subsequently realize that I have gigantic bunions and these heels are killing me.  I also think a big bucket of these would be a great idea next to the dance floor at a wedding…Image-1

…ps they roll up to about the size of a fist.  Portable and practical, yes please.  And did I mention they cover the bunions?  This is a big deal, you guys.  Ballet flats that cover bunions are the preppy girl shoe version of four leaf clovers.  They are so rare you start to think they don’t exist, until one appears in your mailbox and you run around your apartment chanting JUSTICE TO THE BUNIONS! so all of your neighbors can rest easy knowing you’ve found your four leaf clover.

If this is too much bunion talk for you, let me offer instead the delicate, feminine subject of foot sweat.  Ever see that girl in your hot yoga class who rests a towel under her toes in downward dog and think to yourself, Is that weakening her stretch or disconnecting her with the floor?  Well, my friends, that girl is me and the answer is both and neither.  It’s keeping my shweaty toes from shlipping off the mat (shh).  The yoga socks are a grippy alternative to towel solution, providing traction with the mat and actually grounding your soles deeper in that down dog.  Namaste.

*There’s a sock for those too.

One thought on “happy feet

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CommunityMy FDL

Interweaving the thoughts in three different reads this morning.

White Picket Fence (photo: kaiyen/flickr)

I am a white male. I grew up in a rural part of NE Ohio that was nearly all white middle class. Both my parents had college degrees and both worked in professional fields. My knowledge of and experience with those who are blue collar was limited to my aunt and uncle on my father’s side of the family and a few friends.

After my father passed away,  my mother moved us down to South West Florida, which at that time was a mix of Northern transplants and Florida natives IE those born there.  Nearly all of which were white and most middle to upper middle class. We mostly shared the same world views and ideals.

There were Blacks and Seminoles in the area but I only recall meeting a few Seminole kids in school and I do not remember seeing many (if any) Blacks downtown. It was – as far as I could see – a white world.  At least that part of it. I had no negative experience with any other culture as I had little experience with any other culture. But this also meant that I could not easily relate what it would be like to be part of any other culture. I have no way of knowing what it is like to be of any other culture, to have their world view or attitudes.

My family went to the local Lutheran church – my father’s religion, though he himself did not practice it. This was largely symbolic as I never believed any of it and was later to learn that my parents did not either. It was completely white middle class.  Both of my parents were also in Europe during WWII and brought a lot of their experience there and attitudes with them. My mother also spent a good deal of her youth over seas as well, and conveyed this to us.

This is my background.  Add to this that I have had in interest in radio and and electronics which lead me at an early age to listening to international Short Wave Broadcasts and Amateur Radio. Where in my favorite thing is to be able to talk with people in other countries.  As an aside most of them refer to you as “my friend” and express more passion in the conversation than I get from talking with most American Ham Radio operators.

So when I read posts from David Seaton, I can relate easily from where he is coming from. Like his latest post.

This combination of technical and commercial perfection combined with a lack of elementary common sense is what makes him the perfect metaphor for America today… with the rest of the world tagging along.

And the subject of Pam Spaulding’s front page post.

Chad Nance who is a freelance journalist in Winston-Salem and is covering the election here in NC, recorded the wife of NC Sen. Peter Brunstetter confirming that she believes that Amendment One’s destiny is not only to save marriage, it apparently also has something to do with white power preservation. (!)

Which runs along the same lines as what Alngela Merkel expressed a few years ago concerning Germany’s attempts at a multicultural society.

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has courted growing anti-immigrant opinion in Germany by claiming the country’s attempts to create a multicultural society have “utterly failed”.

Speaking to a meeting of young members of her Christian Democratic Union party, Merkel said the idea of people from different cultural backgrounds living happily “side by side” did not work.

She said the onus was on immigrants to do more to integrate into German society.

“This [multicultural] approach has failed, utterly failed,” Merkel told the meeting in Potsdam, west of Berlin, yesterday.

Her remarks will stir a debate about immigration in a country which is home to around 4 million Muslims.

Last week, Horst Seehofer, the premier of Bavaria and a member of the Christian Social Union – part of Merkel’s ruling coalition – called for a halt to Turkish and Arabic immigration.

All speaking to a single thread – a similar view, that of the white Anglo Saxon cultural world view which is especially prominent here. A view that Chris Hedges has expressed is bound to destroy those who hold on to it.  One not of American exceptionalism, but of white exceptionalism.

When the most basic elements that sustain life are reduced to a cash product, life has no intrinsic value. The extinguishing of “primitive” societies, those that were defined by animism and mysticism, those that celebrated ambiguity and mystery, those that respected the centrality of the human imagination, removed the only ideological counterweight to a self-devouring capitalist ideology. Those who held on to pre-modern beliefs, such as Native Americans, who structured themselves around a communal life and self-sacrifice rather than hoarding and wage exploitation, could not be accommodated within the ethic of capitalist exploitation, the cult of the self and the lust for imperial expansion. The prosaic was pitted against the allegorical. And as we race toward the collapse of the planet’s ecosystem we must restore this older vision of life if we are to survive.

The war on the Native Americans, like the wars waged by colonialists around the globe, was waged to eradicate not only a people but a competing ethic. The older form of human community was antithetical and hostile to capitalism, the primacy of the technological state and the demands of empire. This struggle between belief systems was not lost on Marx. “The Ethnological Notebooks of Karl Marx” is a series of observations derived from Marx’s reading of works by historians and anthropologists. He took notes about the traditions, practices, social structure, economic systems and beliefs of numerous indigenous cultures targeted for destruction. Marx noted arcane details about the formation of Native American society, but also that “lands [were] owned by the tribes in common, while tenement-houses [were] owned jointly by their occupants.” He wrote of the Aztecs, “Commune tenure of lands; Life in large households composed of a number of related families.” He went on, “… reasons for believing they practiced communism in living in the household.” Native Americans, especially the Iroquois, provided the governing model for the union of the American colonies, and also proved vital to Marx and Engel’s vision of communism.

Marx, though he placed a naive faith in the power of the state to create his workers’ utopia and discounted important social and cultural forces outside of economics, was acutely aware that something essential to human dignity and independence had been lost with the destruction of pre-modern societies. The Iroquois Council of the Gens, where Indians came together to be heard as ancient Athenians did, was, Marx noted, a “democratic assembly where every adult male and female member had a voice upon all questions brought before it.” Marx lauded the active participation of women in tribal affairs, writing, “The women [were] allowed to express their wishes and opinions through an orator of their own election. Decision given by the Council. Unanimity was a fundamental law of its action among the Iroquois.” European women on the Continent and in the colonies had no equivalent power.

This ethic that dates back to the Holy Wars and Crusades. That white Anglo Saxon protestant world views should trump all else is destroying the planet. A belief what we here and Europe to a lesser extent is keeping us culturally, socially and even scientifically back in the late 19th century at best. Getting past this arrogant, self righteous view is paramount to any chance at advancing and the trick is to do it with humility.

Here is the problem we face though.  It is very, very difficult for someone to come up with ideas and/or solutions to problems for situations of which they have no personal experience. It takes someone with immense empathy and insight to do so. It’s the main reason why AA and other 12step groups have been successful where the  medical and psychological fraternity has not.

It’s the reason why I can no more relate to what it is like being a poor Black or even a poor white is like in this country or anywhere else, as much as I would like to.  Why Bill W. said in founding AA, “I need another Alcoholic” someone who knows what it’s like that can relate.  And why economists have no more a clue as to help main street than the local barber does to fix a BMW.  It’s where too many on the left fall flat.

And it’s why any and all attempts of forcing other groups and cultures into adopting our ways of thinking and our world views and repressing and treating them as some how inferior to us and vice versa is not just morally wrong, but also destructive to them and to us.

We need to learn how to accept people as they are first. To work on understanding where they are coming from. Then helping people to help themselves but only when asked.  Sometimes the most difficult thing to do is to NOT stick our noses in where they are not wanted.  After all we might just learn something from them in the process.

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Sunday Live Music Series – Brian & Mindy

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Sunday Live Music Series – Brian & Mindy
May 7, 2017 1:00 am
May 7, 2017 4:00 pm
Free admission; $8 wine tasting
February 16, 2017

Featuring Mannino’s Pizza Express!

Come enjoy live music by Brian & Mindy and wine tasting; then purchase a bottle to savor during the performance.

Live music will be on our patio and lawn overlooking the vineyard. Mannino’s Pizza Express will be on site for you to purchase a delicious lunch. Seating is limited; you are encouraged to bring a blanket and/or chairs for use on the lawn.

Admission is free and wine tasting is $8.00 per person. The tasting includes 6 samples of Sharrott Winery’s award-winning wines and a souvenir glass.

No BYOB. By law only Sharrott wines can be consumed on the property.

Please note: dogs/pets are not permitted on the property. Also, coolers are prohibited.


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Posts Tagged ‘Happiness’

“God designed the human machine to run on Himself. He Himself is the fuel our spirits were designed to feed on. There is no other. That is why it is just no good asking God to make us happy in our own way, without bothering about religion. God cannot give us happiness and peace apart from Himself because it is not there. There is no such thing.” C. S. Lewis, Mere Christianity


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Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Actually, maybe it is the NGDP after all

May 1, 2012 8 comments

I’ve gotten a lot of really smart pushback on my claims about the UK economy, and I think I have significantly underestimated what I already believed to be a substantial aggregate demand shortfall. First, here is a comparison of UK NGDP at *basic* prices (to eliminate the VAT distortion, h/t to the most excellent Britmouse) compared to the US:

The NGDP shortfall in the UK is significantly higher than the US. Furthermore, it is worth noting we had no less than *5* consecutive quarters where NGDP feel at an annualised rate of greater than 1%, and the recovery was slower. Essentially, our NGDP collapse was much more drawn out (although in the US it was a little sharper, but my gut that more drawn out is worse, e.g. it’s harder to hoard labour for longer). Given that we are now about 5% further below trend compared to the US, when using this (probably better) measure of UK NGDP, is it really so surprising things are this bad compared to the States? Think of it this way – if nominal spending was relatively lower, is there any reason to think (ceteris paribus) the real GDP/inflation mix would be more favourable? I don’t think there is, and so I put the lower bound of the output gap relative to the US at about 2%. The total output gap is likely substantially larger.

The second thing that has made me change my mind is I see pretty much no plausible explanation in the data for why we would have had a large productivity shock. At least, it’s not anything remotely near as important as getting more NGDP, pronto.

This is really important. The idea that the output gap is small in the UK is going to make our monetary policy decisions even worse (including how the central bank would react to changes in fiscal policy, given the inflation mandate). Could there be a supply side issue? There could be a small one. But when we look at the NGDP (and inflation) correctly, I think it should be very clear where our priorities lie. And fiscal policy would have its effect highly diminished by the central banks reaction function (which is biased towards low inflation) if it believes the output gap is small. I think it may be time to start making some noise on this.

Also, I said in my previous post that I didn’t buy the post-Keynesian debt story because NGDP was so similar, and there hasn’t obviously been more deleveraging than the US and it couldn’t explain the discrepancy. So, in order to preserve consistency, given this change to my beliefs about relative NGDP, I have moved my subjective probability estimates somewhat in the direction of that explanation. I currently put sticky wages pretty low on my list. I do think sticky prices are the problem (prices clear markets, after all) but I’m now somewhat more agnostic as to which price that is. Which is all the more reason to plump for NGDP (level) targeting.

Further lessons:

1) Be very, very careful with inflation and NGDP data, in both choosing the correct dataset and how to interpret it

2) Be very, very careful which base years you use for indices

3) Other people are smarter than you are. Listen to them.

Categories: Economics

Is it the financial sector?

April 29, 2012 4 comments

A commenter, ‘david’, says

If you want to contend that there was a real shock, identifying one is not difficult: the economy of the City is heavily involved in finance.

So, if this is right, we’d expect London to be worse affected by the rest of the country, and finance to be especially badly affected. But this does not appear to be the case, based on the ONS’ “Gross Value Added at current basic prices” stats at a regional and industry level (I used the ‘workplace-based’ figures):

Now, Andrew Haldane thinks measuring GVA in the financial sector is problematic. Maybe the data is all wrong. Here’s contributions to GDP growth for 2006-10:

What this seems to suggest was that ‘Business services & finance’ was *incredibly* important to UK growth before 2008, but the reduction in the GDP was slightly more shared around. Here’s the growth in output year-on-year by those sectors:

There are lots of things one could say here. Construction is obviously important. Extraction is not surprising (think ever falling North Sea oil production). But I look at this and see stagnation in manufacturing, utilities, agriculture and (yes) government/other since well before the recession and these sectors took proportionally larger hits in 2009. I think there may be a bigger story, here.

And if I can find a better breakdown for ‘business services and finance’, that may shed a lot of light. But that’s enough from me, for now.

[Update: I added in some missing labels from the first GVA chart. The ever so slight discrepancy between the London total between the two graphs is because the first is ‘Headline’ GVA and the other is just ‘GVA’. In the notes to the stats, it says “The headline regional GVA series for this publication have been calculated using a five-period moving average.”]

Categories: Economics

Is it the VAT?

April 29, 2012 2 comments

A commenter ‘Alex’ over at Interfluidity directs me towards Paul Krugman, debunking the idea that the UK inflation has been worse than the US when you take into account the change in VAT. Here is the graph Krugman shows:

But what happens if you extend this graph back to 2009*:

What you have to remember is we initially cut VAT before we increased it (and had stimulus before we had austerity). And so you can see my point about how to interpret the recession as a whole. Many thanks to all those who have made comments and provided links about debt dynamics. I will read, ponder and get back to you. But for now I’m sticking to my contention that (given tracking NGDP with the US) the UK experienced a real as well as a nominal shock. As Steve Waldman has pointed out in the comments below at my previous post, the effect this would have on real wages would exacerbate the problems caused by a desire to deleverage on the part of UK households, and of course these two stories are not mutually exclusive.

*File under: Department of Yikes

Categories: Economics

Is it the debt, Ctd

April 28, 2012 26 comments

Compare the following two charts, again from the Debt and Deleveraging report by the McKinsey Global Institute:

And I remind you again of UK and US Nominal GDP:

I look at these charts and think: “Sorry, which economy is supposed to be experiencing stagflation, and which one is supposed to be in recovery?”

I’m not saying that deleveraging doesn’t matter, I’m saying that it isn’t obvious to me how it is supposed to explain the discrepancy.

Categories: Economics

Andy Harless, on recessions

April 28, 2012 7 comments

From the comments section over at Modeled Behavior:

I’m with you up to “something is wrong with prices,” but where did we get the premise that the price that has something wrong with it must be the real wage.  I would suggest the possibility that real wages are a side show and that the price that is out of whack is the real interest rate.  Inflation targeting sets a floor on the real interest rate, so if the natural interest rate goes below the negative of the inflation rate, the central bank will (and rightly so, because the cure would be worse than the disease) strongly resist any movement toward equilibrium via adjustments in current prices relative to expected future prices.  In theory maybe you could work around this problem by having a huge decline in the real wage, but that would throw other things out of whack.  The underlying problem is excessive patience.

If you don’t already, you should follow him on Twitter. Here’s a post from him back in November, making the same point. Here is Karl Smith on the logistical difficulties of saving, my favourite post of the year.

Categories: Economics

Yet more on the UK

April 28, 2012 6 comments

Steve Waldman (of the indispensable Interfluidity blog) has answered my plea for an explanation of the UK’s economic woes, offering a ‘Post-Keynesian’ description of the crisis. I highly recommend you go and read the whole thing before reading the rest of this post.

I am not convinced by the Post-Keynesian story. Waldman discussed the fact that the UK has not stabilised the path of nominal income, and this is true. However, here is a comparison of Nominal GDP for the UK and the USA:

Now, it is true that debt levels are much higher here, but (at least according to the recent ‘Debt and Deleveraging’ report from the McKinsey Global Institute) the country currently undergoing deleveraging is the US:

I grant that if the Post-Keynesian story is correct, it seems plausible we should expect the country with the higher debt to have larger (real) problems given equal deviation from the trend in nominal income. The flip side of this (as we are holding NGDP constant) is that inflation must be higher. But I’m not sure how to tie this whole story together with the fact that the US is deleveraging and we, apparently, have not even started (as of Q2 2011). So, you can colour me confused on this one.

I really hope Waldman is wrong, because I put the probability of nominal income returning to trend as basically zero. NGDP-level targeting may make for economic equilibrium, but I seriously doubt that it is a political one too.

Categories: Economics

Britain is not your standard AD story – a follow up

April 27, 2012 24 comments

So, I thought I would pen (or, rather, dictate as I am using the latest Dragon NaturallySpeaking voice recognition software, which is excellent by the way) a quick follow up to an email I sent to Tyler Cowen, which he then posted (with my permission) on Marginal Revolution.

First, I would like to make clear I am not ‘pro-austerity’ – not in the UK and certainly not in Europe. But we control our own monetary policy here and that makes all the difference. If you have a problem with the level of aggregate demand in the UK, please take it up with Mervyn King, or with our monetary policy objective which is much more heavily biased towards stable prices than full employment.

Second, there are an enormous number of people in the world who are suffering right now due to deficient aggregate demand. I am one of those people who has a problem with Mervyn King and our monetary policy objective. More aggregate demand, please.

However, I am becoming steadily less convinced that this is the whole story, at least for the UK. Back in November, Karl Smith made the clearest statement I have ever read of the New Keynesian explanation of a recession:

I can’t hammer this home enough. A recession is not when something bad happens. A recession is not when people are poor.

A recession is when markets fail to clear. We have workers without factories and factories without workers. We have cars without drivers and drivers without cars. We have homes without families and families without their own home.

Prices clear markets. If there is a recession, something is wrong with prices.

Right now, unemployment remains at over 8% in the UK while real wages are lower than they were 7 years ago and are continuing to fall. Yes, you read that correctly. Which immediately leads one to ask: on this explanation of a recession as expounded by Karl, how much further do real wages have to fall to eliminate disequilibrium unemployment?

I am not a political person, I’m trying to ask an intellectual question here. As an interested observer of (and, I stress, not remotely an expert on) the economy, I am finding the aggregate demand narrative an increasingly unsatisfying explanation of all that is happening in the British economy. Supply-side suffering is suffering too, and I think we need to take very seriously the chance that it is happening.

Categories: Economics


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Twelve Moments in Anime No. 6: Wolf and Love

There are many bumps along the road for Lawrence and Horo in Spice and Wolf‘s second season: Trust issues between the two, miscommunication and the elephant in the room of Lawrence’s mortality, which leads to Horo’s fear that her happiness with Lawrence will burn out one day and leave her time with him a bitter memory, instead of the precious jewel she would like to remember it as. In the season finale, Horo seems ready to cut her time with Lawrence short.

But Lawrence can’t — won’t — let Horo leave on those terms. He knows what they have will not last forever, because they will either depart when Lawrence and Horo reach Horo’s homeland, or when Lawrence inevitably dies; however, even if their happiness is fleeting, Lawrence wants as much of it as they can muster. Just a bit more is better than no more. It’s the moment Spice and Wolf fans have been waiting for ever since the series began: Lawrence and Horo just letting it ride and taking their love as far as it will go.

Lawrence and Horo are everything that is great about love. They care about each other a great deal, take great pleasure in talking and having fun with each and they want nothing more than the greatest possible happiness for their partner. Spice and Wolf II‘s finale leaves off on a somewhat uncertain note, but there is one thing every fan knows for sure — whatever happens, Lawrence and Horo will face it together.

4 Responses to “Twelve Moments in Anime No. 6: Wolf and Love”

  1. Topspin Says:

    It was that “omg, Lawrence just brilliantly rickrolled Horo” moment that saved S&W for me. I’m glad someone else felt it was a top moment of the anime year.

    For Lawrence to beat Horo in such style, despite everything being rigged for him to lose, he deserves a medal. He literally gives everything up for a girl with very serious emotional issues, knowing full well that he might never really have a chance with her. I never thought he had it in him to be so up-front and daring. Horo was totally hoist be her own petard, right down to him being selfish like she asked him to be.

  2. zaon47 Says:

    That’s what I like about the Horo and Lawrence pairing. They talk out their problems, face each other’s trials together and are willing to share the burden brough about by the other.

    Lawrence has certainly took more of the lead in Season 2, and I hope he will be able to sustain the level of maturity he has now.

  3. This was indeed an awesome moment for Horo and Lawrence shippers. I don’t know why, but it feels so rare for a long-shipped anime couple to actually get together in a meaningful way. Maybe I’ve just been watching too many harems. :-p

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Twelve Moments in Anime No. 3: Ryuuji and Minorin Race to the Finish

Whew, good to be caught up on these anime moments posts! Of course I still have others to write eventually such as that Monster post I missed last week for various reasons, and the “I’m going to catch up with Cross Game!” pledge that hasn’t quite caught on yet. :p I’m getting there, though. I’m getting there.

Technically the next moment I’m highlighting is not from an episode that aired in 2009; however, it did air on Christmas day of 2008, which technically places it within the time frame of “the past year”, so therefore I conclude that I can include it within this project. Plus, it’s fucking Toradora — who will complain about that?

Toradora deals with young love, family and lasting friendships in a great way and has a fantastic cast of characters, but another big part of what makes Toradora enjoyable for me is that it always nails the big moments without fail, and with a truly great sense of energy and style. You can really feel the passion flowing through each scene, particularly in the above scene from the series’ wonderful thirteenth episode where Ryuuji runs like a madman (and beats fools down in the process) so that he can make amends with Taiga, and, really, so that some random knucklehead won’t swoop in and steal that dance with Taiga. Then when Ryuuji is about to win after literally running over a horde of guys, Minorin joins in for her chance to also make amends with Taiga . . . until the assholes from the track team try to ruin that. (One detail I love is all the students booing the track athletes like they’re pro wrestling heels, which goes great with the show Ryuuji and Taiga’s class puts on.)

We all know what happens after that: Minorin runs roughshod on the track assholes and sacrifices herself so that Ryuuji can cross the finish line unfettered — except he won’t stand for that and goes back for Minorin, because, damn it, she deserves that victory too. I’ll be honest here: I haven’t watched a second of Toradora since finishing the finale nearly nine months ago, and yet watching this scene put a lump in my throat almost immediately. That’s the power it has over me. A great scene and a great moment from a great series.

One last comment on why it works so well: From a strictly practical standpoint, this shouldn’t be a “big” dramatic moment, because in the grand scheme of things, it’s just Ryuuji and Minorin winning a silly race in high school that probably means something only to them. But Toradora perfectly transmits at all times just what these moments mean to these people as individuals, as friends, as family and as people in love. We get it because it’s truly honest to the perception of each character. In a way, it reminds me of what I consider to be the greatest kids show of all time, The Adventures of Pete and Pete. The genius of that show is that it truly captures what it is like to be a kid — the world is this big, surreal mess to them, and everything kids cannot explain becomes larger than life instead of the boring reality it probably is.

The characters of Pete and Pete live in a constant state of wonder (well, Big Pete lives in a constant state of horniness, but I digress); the characters in Toradora are at the points in their lives where they’re approaching the bridge between exiting that world of wonder (the towns we grow up in are basically the entire universe to us until we leave) and the Adult World. That trepidation is reflected near the end, but for the most part, Ryuuji, Taiga, Minorin, Kitamura and Ami pack in all the wonder they can before they enter Adulthood: Trial Version (i.e. college) and then the Adult World itself. And this race is packed to the fuckin’ gills with wonder — it reminds me perfectly of all the ultimately small moments I had in high school that remain huge in my heart, because they’re mine, damn it!

One Response to “Twelve Moments in Anime No. 3: Ryuuji and Minorin Race to the Finish”

  1. Toradora awesome.

    ^ What a half assed, shitty comment.

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Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Mike Lear

Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016

Mike Lear has joined Erwin Penland as EVP/executive creative director. A former creative at The Martin Agency, Lear will work out of the Greenville office and be a part of creative strategy and management for Erwin Penland clients including, but not limited to,...


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Universal Chrome Anchor Point
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Universal Chrome Anchor Point
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AutoCraft Universal Chrome Anchor Point

Part No. AC48/CX136 Warranty Details
Quantity  Add to Cart
Provides secure and convenient tie down point; installs in minutes, no tools required; chrome eyebolt, stainless-steel top plate.
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End Type:Anchor Point
Material:Zinc Alloy and Rubber
Overall Length:6.5 in
Type:Anchor Point
Width:6.5 in

by PowerReviews
AutoCraftUniversal Chrome Anchor Point

(based on 1 review)

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(4 of 7 customers found this review helpful)

Not real strong

from Lock Haven, PA

About Me Use A Truck For A Truck

    • Flimsy Design
    • No Improvement In Performance
    • Weak Cannot Tie To

    Best Uses

      Comments about AutoCraft Universal Chrome Anchor Point:

      I installed these and they go on very easy and look good but as soon as I tied any thing to them they pulled out and snapped off and broke into little pieces that some are still stuck inside of my steak pockets and rattle around when I'm driving around but as far as it goes if your looking for some thing to tie to do not use these they break real easy but if you need to cover your steak pockets for looks these work just fine.

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      Ask a question, get answers from real customers and in-house experts. For further assistance, please review your support options on our Contact Us page.

      2 Questions | 2 Answers
      Displaying questions 1-2
      • Q:

        why are there 4 rubber rectangles, 2 on threaded piece and 2 loose - extra?
        There was no exploded drawing for installation
        Asked on 6/22/2016 by lefty

        1 answer

          Hi Lefty! To further assist with the part number AutoCraft Universal Chrome Anchor Point (Part No. AC48/CX136), please feel free to call us at: 1-877-ADVANCE (238-2623) or contact our "Live Chat" support and one of our Parts Pros will gladly assist you with any questions or concerns you may have.

          Answered on 6/23/2016 by Steve from AAP
      • Q:

        are these sold single or in pairs?
        Asked on 6/3/2011 by Anonymous

        1 answer

          It is sold as a set of Anchor Point.

          Answered on 6/7/2011 by DIY Daniel from AAP
      Displaying questions 1-2

      Do you have a question about this product?

      Check out the specials in our monthly flyer.
      Disclaimer We strive to keep all information accurate and up-to-date; however, product availability, pricing, promotions and store hours are subject to change without notice. Please contact Customer Care if you have any questions or corrections.


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Pitman Arm
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Pitman Arm
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Rare Parts Pitman Arm

Part No. RP20441 Warranty Details
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See if this part fits a specific vehicle.

Check Vehicle Fit

Product Features:
  • Improves steering response
  • Reduces wander
  • Reduces vibration
  • Restores OE alignment
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Inside Diameter:1.25 in
Overall Length:5.3125 in
Spline Quantity:32
Check out the specials in our monthly flyer.
Disclaimer We strive to keep all information accurate and up-to-date; however, product availability, pricing, promotions and store hours are subject to change without notice. Please contact Customer Care if you have any questions or corrections.


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Breathlessness booklet

This booklet is for people who are breathless and want to find out more.

It explains the possible causes of breathlessness and focuses on daily long-term, or chronic, breathlessness. It also explains how your doctor will diagnose what is causing you to get out of breath and things you can do to help yourself.

The latest version of this information is available to view instantly on our website.

You can download this information (PDF 217KB) as a free PDF file to view on your computer, email to others, or print at home.

If you prefer to order a publication, please select a quantity below. Our publications are free to order and deliver.

  • You can add between 20 and 200 to your basket.
  • Delivery to the UK is free.

If you're not a health care professional you can order this from our public shop.

Got a question? We're here to help you. Ask a question online or call us on 0207 688 5555.

Breathlessness booklet


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Product Image Samsung Galaxy S3 Power Button Repair

Samsung Galaxy S3 Power Button Repair

Select this repair if you have a problem with the power button on your device. Price includes high-quality, original replacement parts and all repairs are carried out by one of our trained technicians to the highest possible standards.

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Our customers love the service we provide. You can read what some of our customers have to say here.


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32x32 RGB LED Matrix Panel - Pimoroni
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32x32 RGB LED Matrix Panel

  • 6mm pitch  COM-B006

    Out of stock
  • 4mm pitch  COM-B007

    31 in stock

Bring a little bit of Times Square into your home with this sweet 32 x 32 square RGB LED matrix panel.

These panels are normally used to make video walls, you can see them on the sides of busses and bus stops, to display animations or short video clips. We thought they looked really cool so we picked up a few boxes of them from a factory. They have 1024 bright RGB LEDs arranged in a 32x32 grid on the front. On the back there is a PCB with a set of dual IDC connectors (one input, one output: in theory you can chain these together) and 12 16-bit latches that allow you to drive the display with a 1:16 scan rate.

These displays are technically 'chainable' - connect one output to the next input - but our Arduino example code does not support this (yet). It requires a high speed processor and more RAM than the Arduino has!

These panels require 13 digital pins (6 bit data, 7 bit control) and a good 5V supply, up to 4A per panel.

Comes with: a single 32x32 RGB panel, one IDC cable and a power cable. If we happen to get them from the factory we also include 4 mounting screws and mini-magnets (it appears these are often mounted on a magnetic base).

Keep in mind that these displays are designed to be driven by FPGAs or other high speed processors: they do not have built in PWM control of any kind. Instead, you're supposed to redraw the screen over and over to 'manually' PWM the whole thing. On a 16 MHz arduino, we managed to squeeze 12-bit color (4096 colors) with 40% CPU usage but this display would really shine if driven by any FPGA, CPLD, Propeller, XMOS or other high speed multi-core controller. The good news is that the display is pre-white balanced with nice uniformity so if you turn on all the LEDs it's not a particularly tinted white.

Adafruit have a full wiring diagrams and working Arduino library code with examples from drawing pixels, lines, rectangles, circles and text. You'll get your color blasting within the hour! On an Arduino, you'll need 13 digital pins, and about 1600 bytes of RAM to buffer the 12-bit color image. At this time we do not have wiring documentation for the MEGA.

Please note! These panels are remainder stock from factories that make huge light boards. For that reason, the look and size might vary from batch to batch, even though the basic operation, codebase and tutorial is the same.

We don't have a spec or datasheet at this time. However, these are the specifications from the factory

  • Dimensions: 190.5mm x 190.5mm x 14mm / 7.5" x 7.5" x 0.55"
  • Panel weight with IDC cables and power cable: 357.51g
  • 5V regulated power input, 4A max (all LEDs on)
  • 5V data logic level input
  • 2000 mcd LEDs on 6mm pitch
  • 1/16 scan rate
  • Indoor display, 150 degree visibility
  • Displays are 'chainable' - connect one output to the next input - but our Arduino example code does not support this yet

Adafruit have a full tutorial here!

Tutorials & Projects


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• Shutters Large: L15

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  • On my first visit to Potato Head in Bali I was so very impressed by this giant structure of shutters; genius in both its atmosphere and cross ventilation. I was sold, and promptly took myself back to the Javanese antique dealers & bought a load of these gorgeous hand craved shutters with the remnants of their original paint.

    Use these on your windows, it doesn't matter if they don't quite fit! Create a whole wall of texture and colour or simply lean them against a wall as part of a still-life. The front and back of the shutters vary in colour and design, allowing you to change your space immediately.

    Pick up available at checkout (use click & collect option). Please contact us for competitive courier rates at hello@thesocietyinc.com.au.

    Shutters available in a variety of colours and sizes.

    Measurement roughly: 117cm high, 34cm wide (Individual shutter) available in pair.

Warehouse 3.02 75 Mary Street St Peters 2044
Monday - Saturday 10am-4pm


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Favourites: Dave Snaddon

Following on from housemate and fellow ‘Heartbreaker’ Nicky Howells last time around, this week its the turn of Dave Snaddon to inform us of his favourite things! Give it a read over on the Interviews Page now – with added Snaddon DC promo edit!

Oh yeah, check out The Dump for a blast from Snaddons past…

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Customers want to actually use a tool before giving up their info. So it’s interesting to see more and more sites letting you do the thing first and moving to collect your info later (or not bothering at all)...

Optimizely bills itself as “A/B testing you’ll actually use.” The big call to action on the home page is a field to enter your website URL.

That takes you to a page where you can start annotating your website in order to set up your A/B test.

When you click save, that’s when the site prompts you to create an account.

Give the OK
Give the OK is an online feedback and approval tool. The home page offers a big “upload your first proof” button.

The resulting page gives you a link to share with your client. And that’s when the site encourages you to sign up for an account to track further iterations.

If you want to track further design iterations and harness the true power of Give The Ok, sign up using the form below.

Then there are tools where you don’t ever need to create an account. Pastie prides itself on simplicity. (“Need to nickname, describe, set tab settings and more? You’ll have to look elsewhere. One text box, paste, done. Simple.”)

Along those lines, you hit the home page and immediately see a text box ready for your content.

Submit and it’s ready to share.

Bouncr stands between unwanted mail and your inbox so strangers never see your email address. Just enter an email at the site and you’re ready to go. No account needed.

FollowUpThen also requires no account. Just include on an email and the site will follow up at the time specified.

Any other examples come to mind?

Related: 12 Excellent Examples of “Lazy Registration” []


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Deestone Thunderer ST ST205/75R-15

  • Tire Size: ST205/75R-15
  • Part #: TH0489
  • Sidewall: TL
  • Load Range: D (8 Ply)

per tire

Set of 4 $191.96

Thunderer ST ST205/75R15

Features & Benefits

  • Cut resistance tread compound for long mileage.
  • Dual layer tread provide cool running.
  • Full nylon cap for all sizes for improved uniformity and durability.
  • Reinforce with double layer nylon cap at belt edge provide stability and anti-irregular wear.
  • Giant cord polyester for higher tire strength, better durability.

Tire Specifications

Thunderer ST ST205/75R15

Size UTQG Max. Load Inflation Pressure Tread Depth Tire Weight Rim Width Range Sect. Width Tread Width Overall Diam
ST205/75R-15 N/A 2,150 lbs 65 psi 7/32nds 24 lbs N/A 8" N/A 27"

Purchase includes the Deestone Thunderer ST tire only. The wheel rim shown in the picture is not included. Picture provided is a stock picture from the manufacturer and may or may not reflect the actual product being ordered.

All Deestone Thunderer ST tires are continuously developing with manufactured improvements. With that said, Simple Tire and the manufacturers have the right to change these tire specifications at any time without notice or obligation.

If you have any questions, please email us at [email protected]

Please Note: Specifications of the Deestone Thunderer ST tires shown above are listed to be as accurate as possible based on the information provided to us by Deestone tires.

Available Sizes & Prices

Thunderer ST ST205/75R15

Size Serv. Desc. UTQG Sidewall Part Number Price Qty
ST175/80R13 TL TH0480 $131.72 set of 4 $32.93 View Details
ST205/75R15 TL TH0489 $191.96 set of 4 $47.99 View Details
ST205/75R14 TL TH0485 $187.96 set of 4 $46.99 View Details
ST205/75R14 TL TH0484 $155.96 set of 4 $38.99 View Details
ST215/75R14 TL TH0486 $183.96 set of 4 $45.99 View Details
ST225/75R15 TL TH0491 $231.96 set of 4 $57.99 View Details
ST225/75R15 TL TH0490 $239.68 set of 4 $59.92 View Details
ST235/80R16 TL TH0482 $275.72 set of 4 $68.93 View Details
ST235/80R16 TL TH0483 $287.72 set of 4 $71.93 View Details

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Thunderer ST ST205/75R15

This product is not covered by a manufacturer’s treadlife warranty.

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10 Valuable lessons on “Making It”

I just got an epiphany today. After having my java bean, mocha iced coffee (during the ice storm!) I realized that making movies and wedding videography is all about telling compelling stories. If you know how to tell good stories, then you can make videos that can have an emotional impact on your customers.

I thought it’d be cool to share what I learned from my mentor in college, who was a prominent Hollywood producer. Here are ten valuable lessons on storytelling in movies:

  1. Take classes on storytelling. Whether it is for screenplays or writing novels, it’s good to actually have the technical know-how on how to construct a cohesive story. Learn how to construct a great opening, a compelling middle and a kick-in-the behind ending that will make the viewer remember your video for a long time.
  2. Be prepared for failure and rejection. Trying to make it into Hollywood or for any entertainment niche, it’s hard. It’s probably the hardest thing anyone can try to attempt. There are many competitors and there are many obstacles in the way. It’s good to know before you begin that it’s going to be a long, hard process and to never give up on your hopes and dreams!
  3. Give yourself an hour of self-pity. Building upon point #2, we’re not man (or girl) of steel. We are human. We must take time to cry it out or as Julia Roberts say in “Pretty Woman” veg it out in front of a TV. It’s a form of letting your frustrations and fear out of you. Get your mind straight so you’re ready to get back in the game.
  4. Experiment with different things. We all get stuck on page 45 every now and then. Instead of plowing through with mediocre writing, put the screenplay down. Try something else like painting or joining a Meetup group on screenwriting. Heck, make Youtube videos about screenwriting or making films. Do something different. This broadens your perspective in life and exposes you to different things that you can write about in your screenplay.
  5. Network and develop relationships. In Hollywood and life in general, it’s about who you know and not what you know in most cases. Especially in Hollywood, even if you write the next “War and Peace”, no one will care if no one is willing to fund your movie or documentary. You need powerful friends in Hollywood because as I stated before it’s a competitive industry and everyone’s building a network of contacts to get their ideas funded and backed. So you should too.
  6. Learn to laugh and have a good sense of humor. This will help you deal with #2. You will have many rejections and naysayers. It will be easy to give up and put the keyboard down (or smash it through a window), but it’s important to keep going. Having a good sense of humor will help you deal with hard times.
  7. Key to cinematography is to have fun. We’re all into making videos or making art because we love it. Don’t forget the number one rule is to always have fun doing what you’re doing. If you’re not enjoying it, then why bother continuing. Life is too short.
  8. Don’t neglect life over business. Yes, it’s tempting to take that writing job to write about “Porn Stars and Aliens from Neptune” but really is it worth it? Unless you love porn and have a weird affinity with A.L.F. from Neptune, it’s not worth degrading yourself to write or make videos about stuff you care nothing about. Think about what inspired you to write in the first place. Is it because of a lost loved one? Is it because you have cool friends and think you can create the next great sitcom? Remember the things in life that inspired you and let that be the main driver for your art. Never let your choices be dictated by how much money you can make by writing “Porn Stars and Aliens from Neptune.”
  9. Spend money on film festivals. This goes with #5 very well. Again, the filmmaking business is all about who you know. Getting into festivals or even just starting a Youtube channel is worth your time. It’s important to get your stuff out there. Get it critique. Build a following. Gain followers. In time, people will come seeking for you because they will love the stuff you are writing and producing.
  10. Always have passion. This goes again with many points in this David Letterman-esque Top 10 list. Don’t ever succumb to the lure of money in Hollywood. Do it because you love it. If you do this, you will succeed in making movies, writing screenplays or making a living off cinematography.

It’s been frustrating trying to make it as a cinematographer in New York. This is what inspired me to remember and record what my college mentor taught me. I thought this would be useful for all my fellow NYC videographers, filmmakers, screenwriters and artists out there.

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text: Paul Geluso has been credited as mix engineer, mastering engineer, producer,  and musician on hundreds of music and film titles. As composer and sound designer, his work has has been exhibited internationally receiving support from the New York State Council for the Arts and Meet The Composer. He is currently on the full-time faculty at New York University where he is developing 3D sound capture and post production methods that integrate hight channels into surround systems. Geluso has served as the chief sound engineer at Harvestworks Digital Media Arts, Outpost Digital and as visiting professor at Bard College and the Peabody Conservatory at Johns Hopkins University. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering from New Jersey Institute of Technology,  a Master of Music in Music Technology from New York University and is an active member of the Audio Engineering Society.