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Tag Archive: parenting

The Grantham menace: I can’t quit you, ‘Downton Abbey’

Does Julian Fellowes use his cell or his landline when he phones in “Downton Abbey” each week?

Last night’s episode on PBS was markedly better than the season premiere, as I didn’t find myself coming up with ideas for new drinking games to get me through the experience.  (more…)

Bathe yourself in divine lighting

There are some new mirrors on the market that make you look like you’re well, Jesus Christ. And, much like him (according to some reports), they are everywhere at once.

At first, I was excited to see these frames that evoke a medieval or renaissance look. They’re in pretty much every store that sells anything vaguely decorative.

“Gee, that sacred mirror would look swell in my dining room!”

But then it dawned on me that it looked like any user would look like, well, an aspiring deity. (As far as I know, even Kim Kardashian has not made it to that level yet.)

According to Wikipedia, halos reportedly went out of fashion by the 19th century in Western art, but they’re back, baby. It’s the ultimate DIY project, and just perfect for the Internet:

“How to look divine in two easy steps.”

“You won’t believe this new saint life-hack!”

“I went to Crate and Barrel, and you won’t believe how holy I look now.”

So, despite the kooky “Game of Thrones” vibe they might give to an otherwise drab dining room or ungodly bathroom, I passed on getting a mirror.

I don’t need my already confident kids to get heads that big.

It’s probably somewhere in the kid manual that they not view themselves with halos at all times.

He’s making the world a better place, one M&M at a time

In case you haven’t heard, five-year-olds get homework now.

Yes, actual homework, the likes of which a 1977 kindergartner never saw. (She was too busy walking to school alone, breathing in leaded gasoline and avoiding cars on the road with doors tied on with twine.)

This week, my son’s homework includes writing a new year’s resolution. I found it amusing since my own resolution was already broken by Jan. 4. Yes, I got that far, and I’m quite proud.

I thought this assignment was a great exercise for him to think about all the (more…)

Mommy talks about fog a lot

As I was driving along this morning on a busy street, I saw that a parked car was ahead in my lane. There was enough room, so I decided to merge into the next lane.

The lady at the wheel decided she was going to have none of that and sped up. To which I said, “Why are you fuh- …”

Oops, stop there. I didn’t actually say it, but I was close. And who did I have in the back seat but an eager 8-year-old, who wanted to know more. “Did you just say the F-word?”

Top 10 questions about Santa you’re afraid your kid will ask

1. How does Santa get all those gifts all over the world in one night? I don’t believe the toys use little umbrellas to fly down, like on “Rudolph.”

You know, it, um, happens. Like … magic. Yeah, magic. And aren’t you glad it does all work out?

You like getting the toys, right? I wouldn’t want anything to … happen … to slow Santa down, or impede him in his … mission. It would be a shame if you got in his way with these questions.

Do we have an understanding here?

2. Why does he look different sometimes? Why was he wearing a fake beard when I last saw him?

Merry whatever — here’s your card from my delightful family

It’s December, so it’s time to put together some sort of stock greeting card with pictures of my kids on it so people don’t think we don’t love them anymore. The kids, that is.

He’s making a list, he’s checking it twice … well, OK, that’s not true

“We’re trying to prove that Santa is not real!”

Oh, really? “Why would you do that?”

“Because the reindeer don’t die. Because he doesn’t die. How does he even stay alive for so long?”

Um, I don’t know, buddy. How is it that you’re 8 and still believe this stuff? And why don’t you ask me directly if he’s real or not?

Sit down! This is P.E.

Twice this year, I received notes home that informed me that my child had refused to sit still and listen during his P.E. class. You know, GYM class.

The time when our children are supposed to get a state-mandated amount of running-around time at school, lest they grow up to be morbidly obese people who, say, sit still and listen all day. (And maybe work in five hours of TV, too.)

I know disciplining grade-school kids can be really tough for teachers, and I know my child is no angel, but I am pretty sure he’s entitled, by law, to be as active as he can be when it comes time to go to a course that exists so that children will grow up to be as active as they can be.

It’s his fourth year in school, and we’ve never had anything other than glowing reports. But this year, there is a new emphasis at his school on listening to painstakingly detailed game rules and practicing drills.

As one very talented soccer fanatic boy I know recently shared, “They actually found a way to make soccer boring!”

Are teachers now so attentive to getting our kids into shape that they are implementing rules and curricula that make it necessary for kids to hear lectures about how fitness is awesome, while getting almost no opportunity to get physically fit?

What a mistake. To sit and listen in their academic classes, kids need time to run like banshees. Or they’re going to be pure terrors when they get back to reading and math.

The solution? “If he won’t sit still,” I wrote, “you could try having him run around first.”

I’d love to hear what’s going on in other P.E. classes. What are your thoughts?

Frozen yogurt: This just got real

Nothing sets off my inner copy editor like a cheerful, brightly colored sign full of advertising nonsense.

And grammatical errors. (Oh, how I love to find those grammatical errors.)

“We use REAL ingredients because it’s better for you.”

(First off, is Menchie’s trying to tell us that its ingredients are better for us? In that case, the subject it was looking for is “they.” The ingredients are a “they,” not an “it.” Of course, this presumes that Menchie’s was not simply using an unclear antecedent in the signs that were posted at stores this fall.)

And I am glad to hear that the ingredients are real, and thus do in fact exist. I do hate when I buy food that is a figment of my imagination.

The company clearly wants to tell us that it uses “real ingredients.” Real ingredients as opposed to fake ingredients, I suppose. One could assume that if the ingredients are fake, that they do not in fact exist. Saying that an ingredient is “real” doesn’t give us a whole lot of evidence about what kind of ingredient it is. Just merely that it’s in there, and that it has, um, matter.

Most people will be excited by that and assume that this unregulated and meaningless term “REAL” means that the ingredients are “pure ” (another term meaning nothing), or from organic milk, or more healthful than other kinds of frozen yogurt.

You see, Menchie’s never actually does make that claim, in a legal sense. But the company’s chest-pounding about realness sure does make you feel like you must be doing something healthy as you eat your candy-covered frozen dessert.

But any ingredient that is present in any concoction, anywhere, is “real.”

Even, if it’s, say, artificial flavors. Yup, they are in there. Up near the top of the list for the flavor cinnayumm bun. “Natural & artificial flavors” are on there, right next to modified food starch — perhaps another favorite of the crowd looking for real, healthful ingredients?

These are listed before the third last ingredient, which is … artificial flavor. Apparently, Menchie’s stuff is so real they had to put in artificial flavors twice, in two separate listings.

But I have to give the chain a break, because the company wasn’t making a claim that really goes against any laws. Menchie’s was simply stretching the boundaries of language, and praising the virtues of a product that does, in fact, exist.

Unless, that is, the company wants to make us believe that frozen yogurt flavors full of artificial flavors and covered in commercially produced candy are in fact, from nature (you know, REAL ingredients).

Now that might be misleading.

After all, Menchie’s only said it uses real ingredients. Not that all of its ingredients are real.

Did you read that sign wrong?

Comments welcome.

Cinnayumm bun ingredients:

Here are ingredients for the flavor pineapple cake, which bears an impressive badge telling us it contains “real pineapple cake batter.” The ingredients also list the very real “natural & artificial flavors” and later, “natural & artificial flavor,” as well as Yellow Lake 6 and Yellow Lake 5. All real. (On another day, I will discuss how natural flavor is no guarantee of anything close to nature, either.)

The flavor harvest pumpkin boasts natural & artificial flavors, as well as the very real food colorings Yellow 5, Red 40 and Yellow 6:

Trick-or-cheaters: It’s chocolate, now with less chocolate!

Halloween is a time when we let go of long-held standards such as “no candy bars for breakfast” and “no slasher-movie imagery for 18-month-olds.”

And most parents look the other way when another parent steals all of a child’s Almond Joys and pilfers a Twix or two.

But you might want to think twice before sharing in your kids’ take, or letting the kids eat it, because this stuff isn’t entirely made of food anymore.

Some major chocolate brands have taken out the cocoa butter and replaced it with … well, the derivative of a product that sometimes serves as a laxative (like those times Mussolini used it as a way to torture, embarrass and occasionally kill prisoners) or an outright poison, like when it’s used to make ricin, Walter White’s poison of choice on “Breaking Bad.”

Do you want food that comes in close proximity to it? It is made from the very useful castor bean plant, which is widely considered one of the most dangerous plants in the world, and also makes really nifty biodiesel and lubricates machines and engines well. This exciting ingredient is called PGPR, Polyglycerol Polyricinoleate. (See? It even has ricin in the name.)

The FDA knows about it, and deems it all OK. PGPR didn’t kill any rats or give them cancer in the 1950s and 1960s. (And we know how advanced detection of rat cancer must have been in the 1950s and 1960s.) It also helps manufacturers use more soy lecithin. If we eat more of this filler, candy companies can have a better bottom line, and we’ll get less … cocoa butter. I love when companies remove a major component of an item and sell it to me with less of it. Don’t you?

That’s OK, right? You may enjoy eating a viscous, yellow product you would never even touch as a raw ingredient so the company can alter the candy’s thickness for less. And then they can leave out those pesky ingredients that occur naturally in chocolate production, like cocoa butter, that are just so expensive and gooey and hard to use for the beleaguered chocolate company. Wouldn’t you rather they got some extra money by selling off that ingredient to cosmetic companies for other products, rather than giving you the stuff you think you’re already paying for and eating?

On its Web site, Hershey’s explains that it uses PGPR “to improve processing characteristics of chocolate.” It also helps in molding chocolate. Right. Because we know that there were such difficulties with that before 2006, when Hershey’s altered the formula by giving us less cocoa product — and more chemicals that had to be studied in many labs so companies would know how much they could safely feed to us.

It makes you think. How did Hershey’s ever manage to mold chocolate for the 106 years before that? It couldn’t have been that difficult.

It’s merely more expensive.

Hey, chocolate makers: How about you not add products that are fantastic for greasing engines to your products without checking with us first, OK? Maybe you could add a little tag that says “Now, with even more emulsifiers!” or “Rich in ricin derivatives.”

I suppose it is reassuring that the FDA has labeled PGPR as GRAS, Generally Regarded as Safe. An even better idea might be to lobby to change that label to “Generally Regarded as Chocolate.” You know, generally. Or “Now! Even more like chocolate!”

That might be a good distinction to make, since studies that say that chocolate has great health-enhancing qualities all count on it being, you know, made from actual chocolate and actual cocoa butter, and not just the FDA legal minimum of each, along with a substance created in a lab.

As usual, my mother was horrified to hear the news about this quiet switcheroo. “Why are theyputting that in there?”

As usual, the answer was not uplifting. “Because it’s cheaper,” I told her. “Because they can.”

And, finally, they can do this because only a few buyers are reading ingredient labels and asking questions. If you see an acronym, look it up. You may not like what you find.

Some products that do contain PGPR:
Hershey’s with Almonds
Mr. Goodbar
Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups
Cadbury Fruit & Nut
Cadbury Dairy Milk

Some products that don’t contain PGPR:
Nestle Crunch
Hershey’s Kisses
3 Musketeers
Theo chocolates
Newman’s Own

Previously posted on my consumer protection blog, The Old Shoe (oldshoemag.com)

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Blink: Reviewed

It’s odd to talk about this play because it is fundamentally very odd. Blink is, for better or for worse, a Wes Anderson movie taken to the stage. There’s an attention to detail here that reminds me of that director’s work, not to mention a lot of music ripped straight from Fantastic Mr. Fox and Moonrise Kingdom. Its tone is, for lack of a better word, decidedly quirky, reveling in its weirdness with a smile and a wink. But with all that entertaining goofiness, the show doesn’t let us sit with its heart enough to leave a major impact on the audience.

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Bullion, the oldest reliable investment!

6 Good reasons to own gold coins or gold bars.

1. Gold is a real, physical asset that you own.

We all like to own assets. Some, like cars, depreciate as soon as we buy them. Others, like property and land generally rise in price although, as we all know, there are downturns in property values from time to time.

But the attraction of any physical asset is that it is real and in your ownership. It is yours and you can touch it.

It’s the same with gold. When you buy a gold coin it is yours and in your possession. It is a physical asset. This physical ownership of gold becomes particularly important in times of dramatic economic reversals.

As an asset, gold is independent of countries, governments, currencies or credit worthiness.

2. Gold protects you again sudden market fluctuations.

A significant proportion of North Americans own shares, in one form or another. Perhaps through their company retirement funds or personally held retirement savings plans.

Investing for our retirement is a good idea. But our money is vulnerable to the ups and downs of the market. Of course, as individuals we have no control over market fluctuations. When the markets go up, we are pleased, even though we did nothing to make it happen. When markets go down, we bite our nails and hope for the best.

But sometimes markets literally crash. It happens at least once in most lifetimes. And a market crash can lead to the loss of all your savings, literally. If all your money is tied up in investments, you could lose every penny.

But gold is not susceptible to stock market fluctuations in the same way. In fact, when things go south on the stock markets the value of gold generally rises.

A stash of gold is a great thing to have in the event of a crashing economy.

3. Gold protects you against inflation.

Inflation is the great destroyer of personal wealth. High inflation can dramatically reduce the value of the dollar, euro or yen in your pocket. Last month a dollar might buy you a loaf of bread. Next month, in the case of hyper-inflation, that loaf of bread might cost ten dollars or a hundred dollars.

Again, when inflation strikes, the value of gold tends to rise. Gold is the great balancer. It’s the safe haven. When traditional assets and investments are decimated, the value of your gold will usually rise.

Of course, things never work out quite as neatly as we might like. While gold has done a good job at being a haven for your wealth in times of inflation in the past, that doesn’t mean it will always be that way.

As with all markets, the gold market is nothing if not surprising.

4. Gold can never be “lost” or debased by your employer or the government.

Governments can make all kinds of unilateral decisions that result in the debasement of your money. Your money can be devalued overnight, and there is nothing you can do about it.

Companies which manage retirement funds can behave unpredictably or even fraudulently. We all know of companies which have gone bankrupt, leaving employees past and present with no money in their investment savings.

Unless you have a remarkable level of trust in your government and employer, you might want to buy some gold. With gold in hand, you always have an option. You always have some money at hand.

5. Gold is easy to buy and takes up almost no space to store.

There are now many places where you can buy gold over the internet. Most have a few extra safeguards in place, so it won’t be quite as easy as buying a book on Amazon. But you can find a dealer online, and place your order at any time. Once your payment has cleared, your gold will be shipped to your home.

Once you have your gold in hand, it’s time to store it. How you do that is up to you. Remember, you can own tens of thousands of dollars in gold and store them in a very small space.

6. You can cash in your gold with no penalty at times of emergency.

If you suddenly need cash in a hurry, you can take one or more gold coins down to a dealer in your town or city and redeem them for cash on the spot. It’s not like selling shares or digging into a savings account. There are no penalties for selling gold, and the transaction can be completed in the time it takes to get to a dealer.

Further reading…

Where to buy gold bullion.

The best time to buy gold coins and bars.

Where to store your gold.


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custom of the trade

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A practice that has been used in a particular trade for a long time and is understood to apply by all engaged in that trade. Such customs or practices may influence the way in which a term in a contract is interpreted and courts will generally take into account established customs of a trade in settling a dispute over the interpretation of a contract.

Subjects: Business and Management.

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Related Overviews

'esophoria' can also refer to...

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n. a tendency to squint in which the eye, when covered, tends to turn inwards towards the nose. The eye always straightens on removal of the cover. See also heterophoria.

Subjects: Medicine and Health.

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The Poverty of Climate Economics

Mark Sagoff

in The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society

Published in print August 2011 | ISBN: 9780199566600
Published online January 2012 | | DOI:

Series: Oxford Handbooks in Politics & International Relations

 The Poverty of Climate Economics

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  • Political Economy
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The intergeneration aspect of climate change makes economic reasoning about it more problematic than one might think. Economic reasoning looks for ways more efficiently to allocate or exchange property rights and — sometimes by determining those rights — to resolve collective action dilemmas. This article reveals that economic theory cannot provide a useful way to think about climate change. Climate change is not a collective action problem because individuals today have no common interest that would lead them to believe they have more to gain overall as individuals from the restrictions placed on others than they have to lose from accepting those restrictions themselves. It argues that an efficient allocation of resources, since it depends on exhausting the benefits of trade among the people who can trade (the living), cannot in any direct way respond to the needs or interests of future generations. An efficient policy therefore cannot be a sustainable policy.

Keywords: climate economics; market failure; allocation of resources; economic reasoning; greenhouse gas

Article.  6315 words.

Subjects: Politics ; Political Economy ; Public Policy

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Least-Developed Countries In The WTO: Growing Voice

Shishir Priyadarshi and Taufiqur Rahman

in The Oxford Handbook on The World Trade Organization

Published in print May 2012 | ISBN: 9780199586103
Published online November 2012 | | DOI:

Series: Oxford Handbooks in Politics & International Relations

 Least-Developed Countries In The WTO: Growing Voice

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This article, which focuses on the least developed countries (LDCs) and their participation in the World Trade Organization, provides a brief overview of the trade profiles of the LDCs and the constraints that they face in the multilateral trading system. It examines how the LDCs' share of global trade has evolved, traces their strengths and weaknesses in this sphere, and also analyses the evolution of LDC issues during the Doha Round, including the critical issue of providing duty-free and quota-free market access to all products from all LDCs. The article considers the complementary and supportive role played by the Enhanced Integrated Framework, in the broader context of Aid for Trade, in converting market access opportunities into actual gains for the LDCs. Finally, it discusses the way in which the group dynamics and their collective bargaining power have evolved, and outlines some of the key issues in the context of the Istanbul Programme of Action adopted at the Fourth United Nations Conference on LDCs, held in May 2011.

Keywords: least developed countries; World Trade Organization; multilateral trading system; global trade; Doha Round; Enhanced Integrated Framework; market access; collective bargaining; Aid for Trade; Programme of Action

Article.  9678 words.

Subjects: Politics ; International Relations ; Political Economy

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The French Revolution

Allan Potofsky

in Atlantic History

ISBN: 9780199730414
Published online June 2011 | | DOI:
The French Revolution

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Was the French Revolution part of a single movement that historians conceptualize as the revolutionary Atlantic or was it a unique event? The history of the impact, consequences, and broader meaning of the French Revolution in the Atlantic is dominated by revolutionary exceptionalism. Much as with the English and American cases, exceptionalism attracted historians to focus exclusively on the Revolution, as a favored terrain, because of its nearly transcendental distinctiveness. It was the founding national moment for France, the West, and indeed, perhaps, of modernity itself. But such a historical perspective, centered on the uniqueness of the Revolution, also divorces events within the French métropole from an international context—to such an extent that, until very recently, scholars of the French Revolution rarely included the colonies and the Empire in their narrative of the incomparable events in France. The new French Atlantic paradigm, with its emphasis on colonization, slavery, native peoples, and anti-imperialism, opened Revolutionary-era studies to broader fields of inquiry. Moreover, rather than diminishing its meaning, a reexamination of the Revolution and the first French empire in the Americas reinforces the argument for the Revolution’s Atlantic significance. The revolutionary Atlantic was a movement of public opinion, protest, and representative institutions that grew out of independence and democratic movements spanning the ocean. Atlantic historians point not only to the French Revolution’s role in the rise of radical politics in the United States of the 1790s but also to its relationship with the less familiar Swiss, Dutch, Corsican, Polish, and Belgian revolts, as well as the Haitian revolution and Latin American independence movements. Most recently, historians examining these and other questions have viewed the issue of the Revolution abroad as the origin of modern French colonialism. International relations, commercial diplomacy, and the demands of war compelled the revolutionaries to broaden the global ambitions of revolutionary France with consequences up through the 19th century.

Article.  10226 words.

Subjects: History of the Americas ; European History ; African History ; History ; Regional and National History

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date: 20 January 2018

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Abstract and Keywords

Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many time scales, from the interannual to the multimillennial. Observation always shows a positive feedback between climate and the carbon cycle: elevated atmospheric CO2 leads to warming, but warming is expected to further release of carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing the atmospheric CO2 increase. Earth system models do represent these climate–carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the 21st century; that is, climate change will lead to loss of carbon from the land and ocean reservoirs. These processes partially offset the increases in land and ocean carbon sinks caused by rising atmospheric CO2. As a result, more of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 will remain in the atmosphere. There is, however, a large uncertainty on the magnitude of this feedback. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. On short, interannual, time scales, El Niño years record larger-than-average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate–carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. On a longer, centennial, time scale, the variability of atmospheric CO2 found in records of the last millennium can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climate. These independent methods confirm that the climate–carbon cycle feedback is positive, but probably more consistent with the lower end of the comprehensive models range, excluding very large climate–carbon cycle feedbacks.

Keywords: global carbon cycle, climate change, climate–carbon cycle feedbacks

The intimate coupling between the global carbon cycle and the climate system is well established. The state of the climate system depends on atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but this latter is also directly affected by changes in the climate system. The CO2 → Climate relationship has been known for more than a century, while the understanding of the Climate → CO2 relationship is more recent. This two-way interaction induces a feedback loop: changes in atmospheric CO2, either natural or driven by human activities, induce a change in climate, which in turn has an impact on the global carbon cycle and hence on atmospheric CO2.

The Effect of CO2 on Climate

The physical mechanisms describing the CO2 → Climate relationship (i.e., the impact of a change in atmospheric CO2 concentration on global temperature) have been first described more than a century ago (Arrhenius, 1896; Callendar, 1938). In a seminal paper entitled “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground,” Svante Arrhenius estimated the heat-trapping capacity of the Earth’s atmosphere, and from there, estimated how the Earth surface temperature would change if atmospheric CO2 were to increase or decrease. Over the second part of the 20th century, multiple evidences confirmed the human perturbation of the global carbon cycle and its potentially large implications for the climate system.

Probably the most alarming evidence was the atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide initiated by R. Revelle and his young coworker C. D. Keeling in the late 1950s (Keeling, 1960; Keeling et al., 1976). The atmospheric CO2 concentration record at the Mauna Loa observatory, now simply known as “the Keeling curve,” showed two prominent features of the global carbon cycle (Figure 1). First, the data clearly show the seasonal pulse of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, with lower-than-average CO2 during the Northern hemisphere summer and conversely during the winter. This seasonal pulse is primarily due to the terrestrial biosphere, with plant photosynthesis removing CO2 from the atmosphere (in spring and summer) and soil decomposition releasing CO2 to the atmosphere (in fall and winter). The second unambiguous signal from the Keeling curve is the gradual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration from year to year. When Keeling started the measurements at Mauna Loa in 1958, atmospheric CO2 concentration was around 315 ppm, and it passed the symbolic 400-ppm level in 2014, with a current rate of CO2 increase of about 2 ppm per year (Ciais et al., 2013). It has been clear from the very beginning of these measurements that the reasons for this long-term increase had to be found in fossil fuel burning. In 1960, C. D. Keeling concluded in one of his papers: “At South Pole, the observed rate of increase [of atmospheric CO2] is nearly that to be expected from the combustion of fossil fuel …” (Keeling, 1960).

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle FeedbacksClick to view larger

Figure 1. Atmospheric CO2 concentration (in ppmv) as recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. This record, commonly referred at the Keeling curve, clearly shows the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere as well as the annual cycle of CO2.

Another extremely powerful evidence came from ice core measurements in the early 1980s: spectrometric measurements of air bubbles captured in ice cores allowed reconstruction of the atmospheric CO2 concentration (Barnola, Raynaud, Korotkevich, & Lorius, 1987; Delmas, Ascencio, & Legrand, 1980). Parallel measurements of isotopic composition of the ice allowed inferring Antarctic temperature. The ice core measurements were essential to (a) demonstrate how unusual the current level of atmospheric CO2 is and (b) illustrate how closely CO2 and temperature covaried in the past. Ice core records now go back 800,000 years, spanning eight glacial–interglacial cycles, and clearly indicate that “the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years” (IPCC, 2013) (Figure 2). Ice core data indeed show that atmospheric CO2 concentrations were about 180 ppm during glacial (cold) times and about 280 ppm during interglacial (warm) times. The Earth oscillates between glacial and interglacial states with a periodicity of about 100,000 years; the last glacial period started declining about 20,000 years ago. Current concentrations of about 400 ppm are well above this natural glacial–interglacial range. Furthermore, ice cores of the Holocene (current interglacial) and from the last millennium show that atmospheric CO2 concentration was relatively stable, around 280 ppm, until the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, where atmospheric CO2 started increasing continuously.

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle FeedbacksClick to view larger

Figure 2. Variations of the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 (red), CH4 (blue), and N2O (green) derived from air trapped within ice cores from Antarctica and from recent atmospheric measurements. Also shown are the variations of deuterium (δD; black), a proxy for local temperature, and benthic δ18O marine records (gray), a proxy for global ice volume. The shading indicates the last interglacial warm periods, characterized by higher greenhouse gas concentration and higher temperature. The stars and labels indicate atmospheric concentrations at year 2000.

The ice core data also provides clear evidences that CO2 plays a key role in the climate system. CO2 and global temperature (recorded in the ice isotopic composition [deuterium]) covary during glacial–interglacial cycles, with glacial times characterized by cold temperature (about 5°C colder than present day) and low CO2 (180 ppm) and interglacial times characterized by warmer temperature and higher CO2 (280 ppm). This covariance has wrongly been used as a “demonstration” that CO2 is not responsible for climate change, given that the ice core data show that CO2 changes lag temperature changes. Such simple analysis is simply wrong, however, as it misses the entire dynamic of the coupled climate and CO2 system: glacial cycles are triggered by changes in the Earth orbital configuration leading to a global cooling (for glacial inceptions). The cooling induces a series of Earth feedbacks, the first one being equatorial extension of ice sheets, reducing the Earth albedo, and enhancing the initial cooling; the second one being changes in oceanic physics and biogeochemistry, leading to more oceanic carbon storage, reducing atmospheric CO2, again enhancing the cooling. The gradual decrease in atmospheric CO2 from 280 to 180 ppm during glacial inception is a key driver of the glacial cooling.

Climate models developed since the 1960s also greatly contribute to better understanding of the CO2 → Climate relationship. Three-dimensional climate models started being developed in the 1960s (Manabe & Strickler, 1964), have been continuously improved since, and are still the primarily tools used to address two key questions.

First, can we attribute the climate change observed over the instrumental period to human activities or could it be due to natural variations of the Earth system? Answering that question requires climate models simulating the historical period, with combinations of natural (e.g., volcanoes, solar cycles) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols) forcings. Comparison with observations then allows telling if anthropogenic forcing is required to explain the observed changes. The answer to that question is now unambiguous: “human influence on the climate system is clear,” and more precisely, “It is extremely likely1 that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together” (IPCC, 2013).

Second, can we anticipate what future climate change could be? In the 1980s, this was investigated looking at the response of atmospheric general circulation models to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration (Hansen et al., 1984; Manabe & Stouffer, 1980). In the early 21st century, the climate community has been using Earth system models, which couple the atmosphere–ocean–land physical system to the global carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols). These models simulate the transient response of the climate system over the 20th and 21st centuries, assuming different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions for the future (Collins et al., 2013).

Despite the tremendous effort from the climate community to address that second question of central policy relevance, the uncertainty in terms of climate projection remains high. There is obviously a large uncertainty in the future of greenhouse gas emissions, depending on future socioeconomic development, climate mitigation policies, and so on. However, there is also a large uncertainty coming from the climate response itself, for a given change in the radiative forcing. That uncertainty, primarily due to physical feedbacks, has been a major concern for several decades. In 1979, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences report Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment, led by J. Charney, estimated “the most probable global warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to be near 3°C with a probable error of ± 1.5°C” (NRC, 1979). The latest estimate reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) happens to be identical with an equilibrium climate sensitivity2likely range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (IPCC, 2013). A large fraction of this uncertainty comes from the unknown fate of clouds in a warming world and their net radiative forcing (Bony et al., 2006; Flato et al., 2013).

The Effect of Climate on CO2

The “other side of the coin” (i.e., the effect of climate change on atmospheric CO2) emerged as a scientific concern only in the late 1980s–early 1990s. Probably the first paper that described and attempted to quantify the climate–carbon cycle feedback was written by D. Lashof in 1989 (Lashof, 1989). Lashof identified several biogeochemical feedbacks defined as “those that involve the response of the biosphere and components of the geosphere not considered in typical climate models.” He listed 10 potential biogeochemical feedbacks involving ocean and terrestrial systems (see Table 1 in his paper). With great intuition, he wrote, “ideally these feedbacks should be analyzed by incorporating their effects … into a dynamic model that includes the general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, marine chemistry and biology, atmospheric chemistry, and terrestrial ecosystems. Such an approach would allow explicit consideration of the time dependence of each feedback process, but is not feasible at this time.” Nevertheless, he provided an original, back-of-the-envelope calculation of these biogeochemical feedbacks.

Both on the ocean and on the land side, global carbon cycle models have been developed, starting from simple box models in the 1970s (see Bolin, 1986; Oeschger, Siegenthaler, Schotterer, & Gugelmann, 1975), to full tridimensional models for the ocean biogeochemistry (Maier-Reimer & Hasselmann, 1987; Sarmiento, 1986) and spatially explicit models of terrestrial ecosystems (Potter et al., 1993; Rastetter et al., 1991). The first objective of these carbon cycle models was to quantify the contribution of ocean and land ecosystems to the current or historical global carbon budget. C. D. Keeling was the first to quantify the airborne fraction, the fraction of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere, more than half of the emitted CO2 (Keeling, 1973; Keeling et al., 1976). Those measurements had a profound implication: atmospheric CO2 is increasing because of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, but the atmospheric increase is significantly lower than those emissions. Not all of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning is remaining in the atmosphere; the ocean and the terrestrial ecosystems are actively removing a significant fraction of the perturbed atmospheric CO2. It was initially believed that the ocean was the main sink of carbon until it became clear that a land sink was needed to close the carbon budget (Tans, Fung, & Takahashi, 1990). It is now admitted that both the land and the ocean play comparable roles, each removing from the atmosphere about 25%–30% of the global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use change (Ciais et al., 2013; Le Quéré et al., 2009, 2013) (Figure 3).

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle FeedbacksClick to view larger

Figure 3. Schematic of the global carbon budget, showing anthropogenic sources from fossil fuel burning and cement production as well as from land use changes, atmospheric CO2 increase, and land and ocean sinks. All figures are in GtC/yr.

The processes at play are relatively clear for the ocean carbon sink. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration enhances the diffusive exchange of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean surface. More CO2 enters to ocean, predominantly at high latitudes, where the sinking of water masses depletes the ocean surface of carbon (with respect to the atmosphere); conversely, CO2 is released to the atmosphere in equatorial upwelling zones, where carbon-rich waters are brought back from depth to the ocean surface. In a natural unperturbed state, these fluxes balance and the global ocean is neither a sink nor a source of carbon to the atmosphere. However, with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the system is pushed away from equilibrium and more CO2 enters into the ocean, as the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increasing faster than the average concentration at the ocean surface.

For terrestrial ecosystems, the processes responsible for the carbon sink as less well understood. Again, atmospheric CO2 increase is believed to be a key driver of the sink: higher CO2 concentration allows terrestrial plants to sustain a higher photosynthesis, inducing a net storage of carbon in vegetation and soil. Although there are clear evidences of a positive response of ecosystems to CO2 from controlled elevated CO2 experiments (Norby et al., 2005), there are no direct global-scale observations of that fertilization process.

Despite this lack of definitive understanding, land and ocean carbon models have been used to estimate the historical carbon sinks. The early models were primarily driven by atmospheric CO2 increase, later on also by climate change and variability, and more recently by nitrogen deposition (Le Quéré et al., 2009; Sitch et al., 2015). The combination of model estimates, direct oceanic CO2 observations, and atmospheric measurements of CO2 and other tracers allows a reasonably clear understanding of the current carbon sinks. Out of the 9 PgC annually released from fossil fuel and land use changes, about 2.6 PgC are absorbed by the land ecosystems, and 2.3 PgC by the global oceans, leaving about 4 PgC in the atmosphere every year (Ciais et al., 2013) (Figure 3).

However, the key question is whether these sinks will continue to operate in the future and remove more than half of the anthropogenic CO2 injected in the atmosphere. The ocean and the land ecosystems provide a unique service to humanity. Without these sinks, the increase in atmospheric CO2 would be about twice as large; present-day atmospheric CO2 concentration would be above 500 ppm already, inducing a warming of more than 2°C above preindustrial level. There is then an urgent need to better understand the processes governing these carbon sinks and whether they could decline in the future.

Global land and ocean models were used to investigate the fate of ocean or land carbon storage under future climate. Global ocean models forced with a scenario of atmospheric CO2 over the 21st century would simulate a continuous increase in ocean CO2 uptake, driven by the growing imbalance of CO2 partial pressure between the atmosphere and the ocean surface. However, when accounting for the induced climate change, the same models would show a significant reduction of carbon uptake, primarily driven by the ocean stratification and reduced ocean thermohaline circulation (Maier-Reimer, Mikolajewicz, & Winguth, 1996; Sarmiento, Hughes, Stouffer, & Manabe, 1998; Sarmiento & Le Quéré, 1996). Terrestrial models also investigated the effect of CO2 and climate, always agreeing on the positive response of land carbon storage to atmospheric CO2 increase (the so-called fertilization effect), but not reaching consensus on the terrestrial ecosystem response to the associated climate change. Some earlier studies found an enhanced terrestrial productivity (Melillo et al., 1993), while later studies found the opposite (Cao & Woodward, 1998a, 1998b). The Third Assessment Report of IPCC concluded that, by the mid-21st century, climate change would reduce the land carbon uptake by 21% to 43% and the ocean carbon uptake by 6% to 25%, relative to CO2-only-driven uptakes (Prentice et al., 2001) (Figure 4).

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle FeedbacksClick to view larger

Figure 4. Projections of anthropogenic CO2 uptake by process-based models. Dynamic global vegetation models following a historical and future CO2 concentrations pathway forced with CO2 concentration only (a) and these CO2 concentrations plus simulated climate changes (b) obtained from the Hadley Centre climate model. Panel (b) also shows the envelope of the results from panel (a) (in gray). Process-based ocean carbon models were run with the same CO2 concentrations, assuming a constant climate (c), and a subset of these models with climate change (d). Panel (d) also shows the multimodel average of the results from panel (c) (in black).

The Coupled Climate–CO2 System

All these early studies led to a simple conclusion for the climate modeling community: they had to include the global carbon cycle in climate models. Future trajectories of atmospheric CO2 will be determined by CO2 emissions, obviously, but also by the land and ocean carbon sinks, which will be affected by the simulated climate change. Hence, the CO2–climate system is coupled: future climate change depends on atmospheric CO2 increase (and other forcing agents), but in return, atmospheric CO2 increase depends on climate change (Figure 5).

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle FeedbacksClick to view larger

Figure 5. Schematic of the climate–carbon cycle feedback. Atmospheric CO2 increase induces climate change, which in turn has an impact on ocean and land carbon uptakes, hence controlling atmospheric CO2.

Such global simulations of biogeochemical processes embedded in climate models appeared only at the turn of the 21st century (Cox, Betts, Jones, Spall, & Totterdell, 2000; Friedlingstein et al., 2001). Two new models coupled standard general circulation models (GCMs) with land and ocean carbon cycle models in order to interactively simulate the evolution of atmospheric CO2. The principle was to drive the models with anthropogenic CO2 emissions (EMI), let the models calculate the land and ocean carbon sinks (Fl and Fo), and then diagnose the growth of atmospheric CO2 (Ca) as the residual between emissions and sinks:

The models were fully coupled, atmospheric CO2 was calculated interactively following the above equation, the CO2-induced climate change was simulated by the climate models, and the land and ocean carbon cycles were controlled by both atmospheric CO2 and the state of the simulated climate. These developments occurred almost simultaneously at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) in France. Although these new models and their main result—that there is a positive feedback between climate change and the global carbon cycle—had a profound impact on the climate modeling community; in retrospect, they were only the natural outcome of growing evidence that had pointed to the sensitivity of the global carbon cycle to climate change.

Both modeling groups performed similar simulations; first, a fully coupled 20th- and 21st-century run with 21st-century CO2 emissions following either the IPCC IS92a (Hadley) or the SRESA2 (IPSL) scenario; second, an uncoupled run with the same emission scenario, but holding the radiative forcing from CO2 at preindustrial level. In both runs, the models compute atmospheric CO2 as the difference between the prescribed emissions and the simulated land and ocean carbon sinks. However, in the coupled runs the land and ocean carbon cycles are “seeing” both CO2 increase and climate change (as the climate evolves as the simulated atmospheric CO2 increases), while in the uncoupled runs the land and ocean carbon cycles are “seeing” only the atmospheric CO2 increase (as the climate is held at its preindustrial level). From the coupled and uncoupled simulations, one can compare the simulated atmospheric CO2 levels; any difference will be due to the effect of climate change on the carbon sinks. Indeed, the difference in simulated atmospheric CO2 is a measure of the gain of the climate–carbon cycle feedback:

Where ΔCacou and ΔCaunc are the increase in atmospheric CO2 relative to preindustrial in the coupled and uncoupled simulations respectively and 𝑔 is the gain of the climate–carbon cycle system. The gain of the Hadley Centre model was about 0.4 while the gain of the IPSL model amounted to 0.17. In units of atmospheric CO2, the Hadley model simulated a CO2 concentration about 250 ppm higher by 2100 in the coupled simulation (1025 ppm) than in the uncoupled simulation (800 ppm), while the IPSL model simulated a CO2 concentration that was “only” 75 ppm higher in the coupled simulation (770 ppm) than in the uncoupled simulation (695 ppm) (Cox et al., 2000; Dufresne et al., 2002; Friedlingstein, Dufresne, Cox, & Rayner, 2003).

This wide range, although only based on two models, generated a worldwide interest in climate–carbon cycle modeling. Quite rapidly, the Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) was set up (Cox, Friedlingstein, & Rayner, 2002; Fung, Rayner, Friedlingstein, & Sahagian, 2000) and within less than five years, 11 models had performed similar experiments (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). The bad news is that the uncertainty increased, with some models simulating near-zero climate carbon cycle gain (although still positive). Most of the uncertainty originated from the land biosphere and its response to atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change. The fertilization effect, which largely contributes to the current land carbon sinks, showed a factor of 10 uncertainty in the future, with a sensitivity (called βl) ranging by 2100 between 0.2 and 2.8 GtC stored in terrestrial ecosystems per ppm increase in the atmosphere. Likewise, the climate effect on the carbon cycle (called γl) showed a similar uncertainty, being negative (i.e., warming leads to loss of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems) and ranging between 20 and 177 GtC loss per degree of warming. Mathematically, these two terms can be estimated from the coupled and uncoupled simulations, assuming that the carbon cycle responds linearly to atmospheric CO2 and climate change:

Where ΔCl is the change in the land carbon store,ΔCa the change in atmospheric CO2, and ΔT the change in global temperature. A similar equation applies for the change in the ocean carbon storage ΔCo:

The sensitivity terms β and γ for the land and ocean can be diagnosed successively, solving for β from the uncoupled simulation (above equations where ΔT equals zero), and then solving for γ from the coupled simulation (above equations) (Figure 6). The linear framework above is a rather simple approximation; warming is not strictly linear with CO2, it saturates at high CO2 levels. Likewise, carbon dissolution in the ocean surface saturates at high CO2 concentration, as does plant photosynthesis; carbon loss may increase nonlinearly with larger warming, and so on. However, this framework allows diagnosing the different factors (β and γ) for the purpose of model comparisons and evaluation against the historical record.

Climate Change and Carbon Cycle FeedbacksClick to view larger

Figure 6. Impact of climate change on land carbon uptake (left) and ocean carbon uptake (right). Each line represents one C4MIP Earth system model.

Despite the large uncertainty, all models agreed that climate change would reduce carbon storage (i.e., γ is negative), primarily due to an enhancement of soil organic decomposition under a warming world (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). Almost 10 years later, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), a similar analysis was performed with CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs), giving essentially the same conclusion: the land carbon cycle response to atmospheric CO2 and climate change is still poorly constrained (Arora et al., 2013). New ESMs include a representation of the nitrogen cycle. This has two opposite effects on land carbon storage. First, accounting for nitrogen leads to a lower response to atmospheric CO2, as nitrogen limitations reduce the photosynthesis enhancement under increasing atmospheric CO2. Second, nitrogen also reduces the carbon loss due to climate change, as soil warming leads to increased nitrogen mineralization, hence increasing nitrogen availability to the plant (Zaehle, Friedlingstein, & Friend, 2010; Zaehle et al., 2010).

The Summary for Policy Makers of the Working Group I of the IPCC AR5 headlined that “climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence).” More specifically, it stated “based on Earth System Models, there is high confidence that the feedback between climate and the carbon cycle is positive in the 21st century; that is, climate change will partially offset increases in land and ocean carbon sinks caused by rising atmospheric CO2. As a result more of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 will remain in the atmosphere. A positive feedback between climate and the carbon cycle on century to millennial time scales is supported by paleoclimate observations and modelling” (IPCC, 2013).

Observational Constraints

Models alone are not sufficient to estimate with confidence the carbon cycle feedback. Only observations can help, but there is a fundamental issue here: one cannot observe a feedback. A feedback is, by definition, calculated from the difference between a coupled system and the conceptual, similar system where this feedback does not operate. Such a conceptual world does not exist and hence is simply not observable. Observations are made in the real world where all feedbacks operate. Nevertheless, there are at least two methods that have been used to help constraining the carbon cycle feedbacks.

The first method makes use of concurrent records of atmospheric CO2 and temperature over given timescales (Figure 2). The analysis of the covariance of the two records provides information on the relationship between the climate system and the carbon cycle. The first who made use of such observations was G. Woodwell (Woodwell & Mackenzie, 1995; Woodwell et al., 1998), who used past records of atmospheric CO2 and temperature to try to infer the strength of the climate carbon cycle feedback. Woodwell used ice core data of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature over the last 150,000 years to quantify the strength of climate–carbon cycle feedback. Woodwell wrote, “The record for the Vostok core suggests that a change of 1°C in this period was equivalent to a change of 10–15 ppmv of carbon dioxide or about 25 GtC in the atmosphere.” Such analysis has been reproduced since by several authors, giving essentially the same estimate (Scheffer, Brovkin, & Cox, 2006; Torn & Harte, 2006).

However, the glacial–interglacial changes in the carbon cycle involve processes predominantly related to changes in ocean circulation, carbon export, and burial rates, not directly relevant for the anthropogenic perturbation of the 20th and 21st centuries. The Vostok ice core is an unambiguous indication that the carbon cycle does respond to climate change, and it also confirms that there is a positive feedback on these long time scales: warming releases carbon to the atmosphere, but it does not directly help constrain the carbon cycle feedback of the 21st century.

Much more encouraging is the analysis of the last millennium. The principle is the same as for glacial–interglacial cycles; ice core records of the last millennium show variability of atmospheric CO2, of the order of a couple of ppm, associated with variability of the climate system (Frank et al., 2010). The record of the last millennium offers the advantage that climate and CO2 fluctuations are relatively small and operate on centennial time scales (i.e., more relevant for the current anthropogenic perturbation). However, as opposed to the glacial–interglacial cycles, which are entirely natural, over the last millennium there is a possibility that the anthropogenic perturbation is already at play and contributes to the fluctuations in atmospheric CO2. In particular, it had been argued that early land use change (mainly agriculture in Eurasia) had a significant impact on atmospheric CO2, with a large release of carbon (about 300 GtC) from early agriculture (Ruddiman, 2003). However, it has since been shown that preindustrial CO2 emissions from land use were much lower, about 50 GtC at most (e.g., Pongratz, Reick, Raddatz, & Claussen, 2009), and were not a major concern in an analysis that focuses on variability rather than long-term trends. The study by Frank et al. (2010) combined three ice core data with multiple reconstruction of temperature from tree ring data. They found a clear positive correlation emerging from the CO2 and temperature datasets, allowing a quantification of the global carbon sensitivity to climate. They reported a ΔCaΔT of 7.7 ppm CO2 per °C warming, with a likely range of 1.7–21.4 ppm CO2 per °C for the last millennium. When compared with the ΔCaΔT simulated by the C4MIP models over the 20th century, they concluded that their observation-based estimate was compatible with the lower end of the range simulated by the C4MIP models; that is, large values of the climate–carbon cycle feedback were unlikely compatible with their finding.

A completely different approach, but still based on observations, uses the concept of emerging constraints. The approach relies on the finding that there is an emerging quasilinear relationship between the response of tropical land carbon storage to 21st-century warming (γ) and the sensitivity of the year-to-year growth rate of atmospheric CO2 to tropical temperature anomalies (called γIAV). As the latter is observed, this relationship allows constraint of γ over the 21st century (Cox et al., 2013). The rise of atmospheric CO2 varies from year to year, due to climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This has been known for several decades and is attributed to the tropical land biosphere (Bacastow, 1976; Keeling, Whorf, Wahlen, & Vanderplicht, 1995). Earth system models (ESMs) do simulate interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 in response to the simulated natural climate variability. The emerging relationship emerges as models that tend to simulate a weak tropical land carbon cycle response to ENSO anomalies (low γIAV) tend to simulate a weak tropical land carbon response to climate change over the 21st century (low γ). Conversely, models with a large γIAV simulate a large 21st-century γ. This was first demonstrated for the earlier C4MIP models (Cox et al., 2013) and subsequently reproduced with the more recent CMIP5 ESMs (Wenzel, Cox, Eyring, & Friedlingstein, 2014). The observed sensitivity of the carbon cycle on interannual time scale, derived from the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 records, allows constraint of the tropical land γ to 53 ± 17 GtC per °C warming. Again, this estimate is consistent with the lower end of the C4MIP and CMIP5 ESM estimates.

These two completely independent approaches, one based on millennium variability and one based on interannual variability, agree on two important findings. First, the climate–carbon cycle feedback is positive; and second, the feedback is more likely to be in the lower end of the comprehensive model’s range, excluding very large climate–carbon cycle feedbacks.

The emerging constraint based on interannual variability only gives an indication of the strength of the tropical land carbon sensitivity to future climate. It does not inform us on extratropical ecosystems. One cannot rule out additional carbon cycle feedbacks arising from nontropical ecosystems. In particular, permafrost ecosystems contain the largest amount of carbon on land, about 1700 GtC (Tarnocai et al., 2009). Future warming of the high latitudes is projected to induce a thawing of these permafrost soils, potentially leading to decomposition of soil carbon currently isolated from the atmosphere. None of the current Earth system models represent the carbon in the permafrost. The estimations of the climate–carbon feedback for lands are therefore conservative for high-latitude ecosystems.

Although not included in Earth system models, permafrost ecosystems are being represented in land surface models, and they estimate of the significant release of permafrost carbon (Burke, Jones, & Koven, 2012; Koven et al., 2011; MacDougall, Avis, & Weaver, 2012; Schneider von Deimling et al., 2012). The IPCC AR5 concluded, “There is high confidence that reductions in permafrost extent due to warming will cause thawing of some currently frozen carbon. However, there is low confidence on the magnitude of carbon losses through CO2 and CH4 emissions to the atmosphere, with a range from 50 to 250 GtC between 2000 and 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario” (Ciais et al., 2013).

CO2 fertilization (i.e., the increase of terrestrial plants productivity as a response to atmospheric CO2 increase) remains one of the major source of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle (Arora et al., 2013). Although the basic process is relatively well understood—elevated CO2 stimulates plant photosynthesis, increasing biomass production, and hence carbon uptake—the quantification at the global scale remains poorly constrained. There are no long-term global observations of land carbon uptake that could be used to evaluate the CO2 fertilization.

On a related topic, nitrogen is a key terrestrial nutriment that controls terrestrial plant productivity and hence the carbon sinks. So far, very few Earth system models have accounted for nitrogen limitations. The net effect of nitrogen on future carbon sinks remains to be quantified.

Finally, there are numerous other biological processes that can be affected by climate change and potentially induce a feedback on the human-induced warming, such as N2O emissions, isoprene and ozone chemistry, fires, and aerosol emissions. A recent review of these candidates showed a very low confidence in the magnitude of these feedbacks as they were often estimated from very few studies (Arneth et al., 2010).

Concluding Remarks

The anthropogenic perturbation, through the increase of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, is very likely to be responsible for the observed climate change (IPCC, 2013). Further CO2 emissions will inevitably lead to additional warming over the 21st century. The human perturbation has a severe impact on the natural global carbon cycle. Climate change has a direct impact on the land and ocean carbon cycle; warming leads to carbon release from both land and ocean, a positive feedback on the human perturbation. The quantification of these ocean and land carbon feedbacks has been impeding progress in Earth system science. Recent use of observations gives some hope on constraining these feedbacks, confirming that warming leads to more CO2 in the atmosphere (i.e., a positive feedback).

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Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Russell, G. L., Stone, P., Fung, I., et al. (1984). Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. In J. Hansen & T. Takahashi (Eds.), Climate processes and climate sensitivity (Vol. 29, pp. 130–163). Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union.Find this resource:

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Koven, C. D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Cadule, P., Khvorostyanov, D., et al. (2011). Permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks accelerate global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(36), 14769–14774.Find this resource:

Lashof, D. A. (1989). The dynamic greenhouse: Feedback processes that may influence future concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and climatic change. Climatic Change, 14(3), 213–242.Find this resource:

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Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., Marland, G., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., et al. (2009). Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience, 2(12), 831–836.Find this resource:

MacDougall, A. H., Avis, C. A., & Weaver, A. J. (2012). Significant contribution to climate warming from the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature Geoscience, 5, 719–721.Find this resource:

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(1.) In the IPCC terminology, extremely likely indicates a likelihood above 95%.

(2.) The equilibrium climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration.

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With no deal for school land, board courts other buyers PDF Print E-mail
Written by Bill Schanen IV
Wednesday, 14 December 2016 18:32

PW-S officials unwilling to idle as negotiations for purchase of 54 acres stall

Unable to reach a deal with a prospective buyer it has negotiated with for nearly three months, the Port Washington-Saukville School Board on Monday announced it will entertain other offers for 54.5 acres of farmland on Port’s west side that the district has owned for 47 years.

Supt. Michael Weber said the unnamed prospective buyer, who made an offer to buy the land in September before the property was put on the market, has yet to respond to the district’s counteroffer, although the buyer and administrators are in contact.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 20:08
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Friday, October 12, 2007

angel in transit

Figuring out how to pack and ship the angel took about as long as making her. I had to build a form fitting box that fit within another box. I felt bad for the art handlers who had to deal with my detailed instructions, but the Child at Heart people took it in stride. She's currently on display at the Newburyport, MA library, and goes onto the Danforth Museum on October 31 as part of the Robert's Snow exhibition.

Shabby Cottage Boutique said...

Hi Love your artwork,enchanting.Denise Hull,MA

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.


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Office Location

My office is located at 1221 S. Clarkson St. in the Washington Park neighborhood. Easily accessed from I-25 at the Washington/Emerson/Downing St exit, there is ample on street parking. The office is also across from the Louisiana/Pearl light rail station. The map on this page provides additional details.

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CumInCAD is a Cumulative Index about publications in Computer Aided Architectural Design
supported by the sibling associations ACADIA, CAADRIA, eCAADe, SIGraDi, ASCAAD and CAAD futures

PDF papers
in paper Find in CUMINCAD Emdanat, S. S. and Vakalo, E.-G. (1998) Sharing Design Knowledge Using Shape Algebras
authors Find in CUMINCAD Tapia, M.
year 1996
title Find in CUMINCAD From Shape to Style, Shape Grammars: Issues in Representationand Computation, Presentation and Selection
source Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Toronto
last changed 2003/12/12 14:41
pick and add to favorite papersview how record was changing over timeHOMELOGIN (you are user _anon_930425 from group guest) CUMINCAD References Powered by SciX Open Publishing Services 1.002


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UFO πάνω από τη Βρετανία (UFO over Britain)

Darting silently in formation, the mysterious glowing orbs light up the night sky.

Some say these orange lights even weave in between each other with the precision of a synchronised flying team from some far corner of the universe.

Clusters of more than 100 have been spotted across Britain and even Holland, leaving onlookers with an eerie sense that, for all the mystifying beauty of the strange objects, they may have just witnessed an armada of invading UFOs.

UFO sighting above Lincoln

Stunned: Families in Lincoln spotted glowing orange spheres grouped together in the sky on Sunday night

Eerie: Witnesses reported seeing the lights flying in an apparent formation, dodging and darting around each other before disappearing

The most recent sighting was on Sunday when they were seen in two locations, Merseyside and Lincoln. Days earlier a similar phenomenon was spotted over Cambridgeshire, where one witness claims each was as big as a house.

The sightings have prompted defence officials to check their logs and sent UFO fans into orbits of excitement. Engineer Paul Slight, 54, took photos on his mobile phone of the strange objects hovering over Lincoln at 10.30pm while he was cycling home after a day out with friends.

'There were 26 of them at first, dodging and darting in between each other like they were playing a game,' he said.

These four strange orange lights were captured in this photograph taken in Holland on May 11

'After that, seven more arrived and weaved through the crowd of lights like strange kinds of aircraft. After five minutes of moving around, they hung in the air for a second then shot off into the sky and disappeared.'

A spokesman for nearby RAF Cranwell said the base was closed at the weekend so the lights could not be attributed to its aircraft. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defence is examining claims that the Merseyside lights were connected to an exercise involving HMS Daring, docked in Liverpool.

An ex-military source claimed the lights were dropped by jets to simulate the path of a missile in order to test the warship's radar systems.

Military exercise: Experts are investigating whether these orange lights above Merseyside were 'counter measures' to test the defences of a Royal Navy ship

HMS Daring, believed to have been taking part in an exericise when UFOs were spotted over Merseyside

HMS Daring, which is currently docked at Liverpool, uses radar-activated guns. It is believed the lights seen may have been 'counter-measures' to test its defences

In Cambridgeshire, banker Scott Boswell, 37, said he saw more than 100 lights flying less than two miles above his home in Hinchingbrooke. The former soldier and experienced pilot said: 'I know they weren't aircraft – they were silent.

'And I was a soldier for a decade so I could immediately rule out flares or weather balloons. I really have no idea what they were.'

On the same night, May 27, at around 11.30pm guesthouse owner Auberon Hedgecoe, 40, of nearby Huntingdon, also saw the lights. 'There was no sound,' he said.

Unexplained: An image manufactured by Auberon Hedgecoe of how the lights appeared over a half an hour period above Huntingdon

Hedgecoe family who spotted mysterious lights over head near Huntingdon

The Hedgecoe family, from left Suzi, Barney, friend Zac and Auberon, saw 50 of the orange lights above Huntingdon and described them as being 'as big as a house'

'They were travelling 15 at a time and every six minutes more seemed to be coming over the horizon. They were not planes. They were not balloons.

Each one was the size of a building.' Last night it emerged a woman has contacted her local newspaper to claim that the lights over Lincoln were Chinese lanterns – mini hot air balloons – set off at her wedding reception.

'They looked amazing, hope you all enjoyed the spectacle,' she said.

Nick Pope, the former head of the MoD's UFO Project, supported the Chinese lantern theory.

'I'm not disparaging the whole UFO phenomenon, but I'd say 99 per cent of UFO reports involving orange lights in the sky these days are attributable to these lanterns.'

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Sunday, 16 February 2014

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Prosper Studios, Vail Colorado Web Design

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Parkwood House

book now 2

Is a fully self-contained three bedroom house, Fully equipped  kitchen, Full size fridge, dining room, lounge room, washing machine.

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