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BIG TROUBLE FOR COPPER: The Breakdown Of The Industry Has Begun

The king of base metals is in big trouble as indicators point to a breakdown of the global copper industry.  This goes well beyond the typical “slowdown” or “downturn” in the copper market.  Instead, we are going to witness what I refer to as “Copper Industry Carnage.”

While some readers may feel as if I am being a bit “doom and gloomy” here, the situation in the global copper industry is much worse than most analysts realize.  This is due to the fact that many analysts are forecasting copper supply deficits in the next few years, which would push the price of copper higher.

Unfortunately, this sort of industry analysis is well behind the curve or even worse, guilty of wishful thinking.  The world economy is slowing down… and this will likely pick up speed by the end of the year.  Which means, demand for copper will continue to weaken, pushing prices even lower.

Today, the price of copper is down 2%, impacting the copper miners.  Freeport’s stock price was hammered lower by over 7% today in market trading.

Low copper prices are already causing damage in the top two copper mining companies in the world.  The second largest copper producer, Freeport-McMoran, suffered an adjusted income loss of $214 million in the first half of 2016.  Part of the loss was due to their lousy shale oil and gas investments.

For some stupid reason, many base metal mining companies jumped into the oil and gas business with both feet when the shale energy bonanza took off in the United States.  For example, BHP Billiton reported a hefty $7.2 billion impairment (write off) on its onshore shale oil and gas assets last year (for their year ending Q2 2016).

While that may seem like one hell of a lot of money for BHP Billiton to write-off on its shale oil and gas assets, Freeport-McMoRan did one even better.  According to FreePort-McMoRan’s annual report, they reported a staggering $13 billion impairment on their oil and gas properties in 2015 on top of another $3.7 billion write off in 2014.

As they say… easy come, easy go.

So, not only are the big base metal miners suffering from low base metal prices, they are also enjoying a wonderful shale oil and gas enema from the other end.  I don’t mean to be harsh here, but who on earth was in charge of making these lousy shale energy investment decisions for these base metal mining companies??

And it gets even worse.  I just read this jewel of an article yesterday on the Financial Times, BHP Billiton Bets Long On U.S. Shale Assets:

Five years after BHP Billiton plunged $20bn into the US shale revolution, the wait goes on for shareholders.

Even if oil prices rally by one-third the fields will not generate significant free cash flow until the turn of the decade, the mining company cum oil producer revealed at investor briefings last week.

….. BHP’s acquisition of two US shale producers in 2011 was followed by $17bn of investment, beefing up an oil business that has long set the world’s most valuable mining company apart from its peers. About one-third of BHP’s group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation have come from petroleum over the past five years.

The timing of its shale bet proved ill-judged. Following a savage market downturn that has seen oil prices more than halve, BHP has racked up $12bn of impairments and the US shale business is now valued at just $12.6bn. Output is expected to fall by a quarter this year, the consequence of a much reduced drilling programme.

So, the Einsteins at BHP Billiton acquired U.S. shale oil and gas assets that are now only worth $12.6 billion, after they racked up $12 billion of impairment losses since 2011.  Furthermore, even if the oil price increases by one-third, they won’t generate any significant free cash flow until 2020.

Warning to BHP Billiton shareholders….. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.

I tell ya, it is amazing to see supposedly savvy businessmen in high-dollar suits making these sort of insane investment decisions.

Okay, let’s get back to the destruction of the copper mining industry.

The First Sign of the Gutting Of The Copper Mining Industry

The first sign of the gutting of the copper mining industry is taking place as Chile’s mining truck purchases collapse.   This is bad news as Chile is the largest copper producer in the world.  Chile produced 5.7 million tons of copper in 2015, way ahead of the second ranked country, China, that mined 1.6 million tons.

According to a report by the Chilean Copper Commission, new mining truck sales fell to a low of 40 units in 2015, down from a peak of 392 in 2012.  As you can see, this is not a slowdown.  Rather, truck purchases have fallen off a cliff:

We have to go all the way back to 2004 to see a unit number that low.  Even with the huge downturn in the global markets in 2009, Chile still imported 122 new mining trucks that year… more than triple the figure for 2015.

Why is this such a big deal?  I took the total number of new trucks imported (purchased) by Chile and compared it to the annual average price of copper:

There seems to be a correlation between the copper price and new truck purchases by the Chilean Copper Industry.  When the price of copper fell to $1.34 a pound in 2009, Chile still imported three times more new mining trucks that year than in 2015, when the copper price was double ($2.70).   Sadly, Chile’s new mining truck purchases are down 90% from their peak in 2012.

Of course, there were new projects coming online to justify some of the large number of truck purchases in 2011 and 2012.  However, Chile’s copper production has only increased from 5.4 million tons in 2010 to 5.7 million tons in 2015.  Would a 5% increase in Chile’s total copper production justify the need for 322 new trucks in 2011 and 392 new units in 2012??

Regardless, demand for new mining trucks in Chile has fallen 90% from its peak.just a few years ago  I would imagine new truck sales in 2016 will likely be even weaker.  This is not a good sign for the largest copper producer in the world.

The Top Copper Mining Companies Are Getting Hammered

As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, Freeport-McMoRan suffered a $214 million adjusted income loss in the first half of 2016.  That’s pretty bad because “adjusted” income removes many items (such as impairments) from the bottom line to arrive at figure that represents a more realistic day-to-day cost of mining copper.

For example, Freeport also suffered an additional $4 billion impairment on its shale oil and gas assets in the first half of 2016.  So, if we add that to the $13 billion of shale asset impairments last year, Freeport has racked up a cool $17 billion in shale asset write-downs in just a year and a half.

Maybe it would have been a good idea for the management at Freeport to stick with mining copper, rather than blowing big money on the U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Black Hole.

If we look at Freeport-McMoran’s free cash flow for the past eight years, something is dreadfully wrong now.  For a quick refresher, free cash flow comes from deducting CAPEX (capital expenditures) from their cash from operations:

Here we can see that 2010 and 2011 were good years for Freeport as they enjoyed $4.8 and $4 billion respectively in positive free cash flow.  However, this took a turn for the worse in 2014 as free cash flow turned negative to the tune of $1.5 billion, then doubled in 2015 to a negative of $3.1 billion.

Even though some of that negative free cash flow can be blamed on losses from their  shale oil and gas assets (liabilities… haha), the majority of Freeport’s revenues are from copper and metal mining.  For example, of the $15.8 billion in Freeport’s net revenues in 2015, only $1.9 billion was from U.S. shale oil and gas proceeds.

While the change in Freeport’s balance sheet to negative free cash flow in the past two years is not a good sign, the situation is even worse when we add in their dividends.  From 2013-2015, Freeport paid out nearly $5 billion in dividends.  Thus, they forked out $8.8 billion more during the past three years than the cash they made from operations.

Now, if we look at the largest copper producing company in the world, their results aren’t any better.  In the first quarter of 2016, Chile’s Codelco mining company reported a $125 million net income loss.  This loss is purely on producing copper as Codelco doesn’t have any U.S. shale oil or gas assets.

According to Codelco’s financial highlights on their website, they enjoyed a $7.4 billion pre-tax profit in 2012, $3.8 billion in 2013 and $3 billion in 2014.  However, things turned south in 2015 as they suffered a $1.4 billion pre-tax loss that year.

Coledco produced 1.9 million tons of copper in 2015, while Freeport came in second at 1.5 million tons.  So, the two top mining companies that produced 3.4 million tons of copper in 2015… didn’t really make any money.  And it looks like 2016 will be even less fun for these large copper miners

The global copper mining industry is getting ready to face some serious hard times.  Again, the falling copper price and the financial trouble taking place in the world’s top copper producers is not the typical market correction awaiting a turnaround in the global economy.  Rather the copper industry is heading towards a disintegration to a much smaller size.

Unfortunately, investors and analysts who  continue to believe the situation will recover in the global economy, will lose a lot of fiat money holding onto these copper and base metal mining companies.  Even though investors should have realized something was wrong when several base metal mining companies moved into the U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Ponzi, and lost a lot of money, they will continue to hold onto these stocks as we enter into the next phase… the Copper Industry Carnage.

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50 Comments on "BIG TROUBLE FOR COPPER: The Breakdown Of The Industry Has Begun"

  1. “I tell ya, it is amazing to see supposedly savvy businessmen in high-dollar suits making these sort of insane investment decisions.”

    nothing amazing about it at all. during a major economic downturn the boss came down and told the savvy businessmen, “get me profits, I don’t care how, just get me profits or you’re fired”. the savvy businessmen looked around, saw the hype surrounding shale oil, knew it was too risky, but invested in it anyway because 1) there was nowhere else to go, and 2) they wanted to prolong their jobs.

    same thing is happening right now in retirement fund trusts everywhere ….

    “Warning to BHP Billiton shareholders….. GET OUT WHILE YOU CAN.”

    they can’t. there is nowhere else to go.

    • DisappearingCulture | October 13, 2016 at 3:56 pm | Reply

      “they can’t. there is nowhere else to go.”

      got to be some distressed corporate bond out there paying 7% lol

    • SoSo…. true gmam !! I could not have said it better. We have given these people at the top too much credit in the past. They are not street savvy to Washington’s demagoguery.

    • I’m no analyst, but I recognized the shale oil and gas “miracle” for a sham, and know for a fact that many in the industry likewise knew it was a fraud. Thanks to commentators like SRSRocco, truth is reaching the broad market audience to the point where there can not be anyone with a proverbial ear to the ground who still buys the big lies.

      I sincerely hope that I can attend some of the trials and sentencing for these executives, board members, bankers and bookkeepers. Justice needs to be done and seen widely to be done.

      • “I recognized the shale oil and gas ‘miracle’ for a sham”

        everybody did. nobody cared, because there was nowhere else to go. it’s like a millionaire trying to buy his way onto a lifeboat. he throws his money at the deckhand and hopes to get on. if he gets on, hey, great. if he doesn’t get on then he hasn’t lost any money that he wasn’t going to lose anyway. that’s how it works.

        “I sincerely hope that I can attend some of the trials and sentencing for these executives, board members, bankers and bookkeepers.”

        wrong people. they’re caught up in all this just like you and me. the responsible parties are the owners of the federal reserve fiat debt dollar.

  2. Ray says:
    Has anyone heard this talk going around about investing in white oil. I have no clue but the scuttle butt is you can run a car engine for 150-200 miles on just a few ounces. I think this is crap like so many other things we hear. Anyone out there knows leave a comment. If anyone knows it would be Steve that runs this site.

  3. Dr Copper to dr Steel; how come they can’t manage affordibility?

    Dr Steel: it’s because you’re too weak.

  4. My question is – how much will this affect the copper/gold miners and what is a point of ratio where the company should be avoided for a while?

    • Gold, silver and copper are often found together. I betcha that the miners will be focusing on gold and siver in the short term.

  5. Im no doctor but I treat Copper the same way as Silver.I have physical Copper coins,bars and rounds.I believe Copper will play a big roll if we ever make it to a sound money system.I also expect Gold and Silver shortages when paper fails and would much rather barter with Copper,than Gold or Silver.

    • then you should look into nickles. they’re the only legitimate coins left in circulation.

      • A million bucks in US five-cent pieces is enough to crush any residential floor that is not reenforced concete. 500,000 rolls. Maybe, they have a place in a heat-retaining wall, or as big-safe ballast? I got about $200 nickels in an M-60 ammo can, then bought a 10oz silver bar. Much nicer.

  6. Excellent analysis as usual. This is actually another expected acceleration point. As copper mining falls off a cliff, so goes a significant portion of silver supply. It’s counter intuitive to most folks, but as the economy turns down, silver price rises – and this is just one reason (albeit a big one). Thanks Steve.

  7. Would China government Keynesian infrastructure construction stimulate the copper price go up ?

    • GFW-Chinese,

      I doubt it because the rapidly Falling EROI won’t allow the Chinese to continue the same insanity of city building to nowhere for another decade. Of course, they could extend things a bit, but I believe global debt is now becoming unsustainable.

      The Chinese are in big trouble. They will never become the next great power, even though I believe they deserve to have their time.

      • Thank you, Steve.
        I found that some of China markets are hot again, e.g. Coal price, Iron ore & steel price, cooking coal, etc.

      • Watch this:
        It’s China coking coal bull market. Price up up mad ….

      • It’s like the developing world, China, India, South East Asia etc are turning up to the EROI party when all the beer is just about drunk and everyone’s leaving.

        • Barry,

          You HIT THE NAIL on the head. Louis Arnoux will be discussing the Thermodynamic Oil Collapse with me in an interview this Thursday. We will be going over 6 charts. One of the charts shows the actual wealth creation by various countries. China is but a mere rounding error compared to others.

          I believe you will find the information quite interesting.

          • I am really looking forward to that interview.

          • I sometimes go to “economic disaster” channels and try to inform people that the reason that the world is becoming awash with debt is not some conspiracy of the elites, which by the way have been ruling for ever, but the falling EROI of energy. And for some reason I get some intense flaming. The reason for which I don’t quite understand. Whether the channel is right or left wing leaning the result is the same. People are intensely against contemplating the science of this dilemma. .

          • “I sometimes go to “economic disaster” channels and try to inform people that the reason that the world is becoming awash with debt is not some conspiracy of the elites, which by the way have been ruling for ever, but the falling EROI of energy. And for some reason I get some intense flaming. The reason for which I don’t quite understand.”

            it’s because you’re wrong. the reason the debt keeps increasing is that is how the fiat debt currency system is designed to operate. it first rewards, then enforces, debt accumulation. discharge of debt is impossible without total economic collapse. its end-state is all collateral seized and all participants bound up in non-dischargeable debt – feudalism. eroi has nothing to do with it – if cold fusion were revealed and implemented tomorrow and we all had nearly free energy for the rest of the millennium, fiat debt currency would suck up this as well and we’d still be left with nothing in the end. “if ever the american people allow the banks ….”

          • To Gman
            EROI reached a needed 30 to 1 in the early 70s the same time Nixon acted.
            The so called elites were ruling in the 50s and 60s, life was good because there was a lot of energy to go around.
            Rome was always ruled by “elites” yet it’s currency wasn’t corrupted until it ran out of energy.
            If cold fusion was invented the standard of living might not go up for parts of the American right because their true subconscious hate is secularism but for the rest of the world it would. And yes the “elites” would still rule because they always have and they always will. Except when a strong man takes over like Hitler or Napoleon and we know how well that turns out. The aim is to use democracy to keep the “elites” under control. China is communist which is supposed to be averse to the power of elites. Who runs China? The elites. In nature survival is a battle for resources, water and energy. That’s it. That is all life is.

    • They’re close to the end of that game.

  8. Thanks Steve, good work, appreciated.

  9. Going beyond the dismal general economic implications, I’m curious how slowing copper mining will effect the supply of PM byproduct production. Steve- any thoughts?

    • Xploregon,

      By-product silver production from Base Metal Mining will fall like a rock. It has to. While 20% of gold production is a by-product of base metal and silver production, 70% of silver is a by-product of base metal and gold production. So, we can see that silver supply will be hit the hardest when the SENECA CLIFF starts in earnest.

      I will be interviewing Louis Arnoux this week on Thursday. I believe you will find the information quite interesting.

  10. Is ww3 around the corner to, cover up the mess? and would that end with the lose of available energy/oil to continue the fighting? Or the radiation? Didnt hitler have a similar problem with the former?

  11. Steve you’re getting good at hiding the veggies in the other food for the kids. 🙂

  12. I work freeport in Indonesia I’m from Canada and you wouldn’t know they rising money they are going like crazy here

  13. Many canaries in coal mines are dying now. Not only real world stuff like truck sales is disastrous, luxury condos in Manhattan and elsewhere, luxury car sales in China, etc etc etc also. The US oil industry will be an important ingredient in the witches’ brew cauldron of the coming crisis.

  14. To: r sinclair
    Your right about Hitler and you can throw the Japanese into that category. They did not have enough energy to continue to fight, among other problems. Hitler was to greedy like most dictators. Attacking the Soviet Union was just one mistake of many. Hitler also should have waited till his jet fighter was on line and he wasn’t to far from the atomic bomb being ready. He should have waited a few years and he might have succeeded because we were isolationist and stayed out of other nations business as a whole. Hitler was really doomed when the Soviets entered the war. I am happy that he did not wait. I wish I could speak German but not forced too.

    We on the underhand had plenty of oil and the capability to fire up our factories to confront whoever.
    I probably went on more then necessary, but yes, you can’t win a war without energy.

  15. THIS is how I believe the banksters complete their global takeover.

    Every significant company is deliberately sabotaged financially as well as hammered down in the next crisis… the bankers come in with freely (fraudulently) printed currency and buy out the bulk of the shares at dirt cheap prices… they may then choose to allow a few schmucks like us to remain “shareholders” purely for image, or they may force a complete buyout of the remaining small percentage. I believe they have done this to may companies already, they are just in the final cleanup stage now. Suppressing all commodity prices is a key part of this plan.

    Of particular importance to them is all the infrastructure, resource/mining, utility, telcos, etc – they do/will own everything that we need to exist in modern society.

  16. If you could get it, the number of new mines brought online, and, average truck life span versus time in comparison to copper price might be more revealing.

  17. China likes metal, well .. they need it, we all do, they only recently let the citizens buy ag/au, now they are eating more au for breakfast than India, due to devaluing their currency, they had to throw the commonwealth a bone, so they did.

    Not to ding this article but virtualcapitalist has a headliner today, oil market is bigger than all metal markets combined. Still, I think the money these miners spend is totally dependent on the money they bring in, which also helps them get more credit, practically free money, they’ve bought all the equipment they needed, for now, well they have to depreciate all that stuff, write it off, and with all the latest greatest equipment and metal prices on the wane, world demand, I’m sure peaking up again, at some point you have to sit back and watch/wait for the money to keep rolling in.

    Metal prices are all over the place, well they sort of are, that’s a sign of weird investment demand, allot of money has fallen into precious metals, just in ten years demand for ag coins and bars went from 50 million to 300 million a year. People didn’t forget 2008, or 2011, which I’m cool with, next recession I’ll be mopping up silver on the cheap, might be a few years yet, almost free money is kind of a new game, and negative interest rates will be next, how else will governments going to continue spending, not by raising them! Seriously, I think it’s a contest to see who can get away with ringing up the most debt.

    It’s true Bob, the lower interest rates are just making the rich richer, you look at the Wells Fargo fiasco, and it’s all about money, no .. it’s also about treating people like human beings, instead of just tools, meh, I guess it is all about the money.

    Still Bob, I don’t think commodity prices are all that low, oil is, but everyone wanted to play oil, well they over expanded too, cheap money, big investment, begets cheaper product.

    We are starting to see continual merger activity!, this is definitely precursory to recessions?

    I’m no expert, I like to speculate and think about stuff when my head is clear.

  18. Codelco is a state company, so its sole investor will not go anywhere, unless they decide to privatize it, which tends to happen during such times, below fire sale prices. That may have been one of the reasons for the shale sharade: CEOs and boards may have been ‘encouraged’ to do it by bankers — every such company has a CFO that is has strong bankster links. Not a new sharade, but works most of the time. One such example is privatization of Russian oil industry for bribes and peanuts. Worked like a charm, until the unfavourable regime change.

  19. Steve, China won’t be a rounding error but onef the major factors in another context, the soon-comoing worldwide economic collapse.

  20. Oil, copper, whatever, are going the same way because of weakening demand. Oil will go a lot lower soon bcause of the oversupply.

  21. Yes Reader, the govts and ueber-elites via the central banksters are engineering the collapse so that they can pick up everything on the cheap and introduce the NWO.

  22. PM only one way.–>downwards.Miner stocks(HUI) -30 percent from the top.

  23. What about cannabis stocks?California want to leglize at 11.November.When i look to the PM prices/stocks this is maybe the best anti depressiva?

    • “What about cannabis stocks?”

      anyone can grow it for free, and unlike food there still are quite a few people out there who are experts at growing their own.

  24. Thoughts related to several of the above comments…
    With each metals producing company, the norm is to quantify their output in “gold-equivalent ounces” if the gold they produce has more dollar-value than any other metal, and “silver-equivalent ounces” if silver is the main metal in dollar-value. In each case, the metals other than the primary one, are listed as by-products.

    To gain clarity about the degree of impact a slowing copper industry has on the precious metals, it would be very helpful to create a listing, a chart if you will, of perhaps the top twenty copper producers along with historical production of gold and silver by year, and with shading for the time periods in which copper prices sank from earlier highs. Are the copper producers actually able to focus on different spaces so as to “high-grade” precious metals during times of low copper prices? I think not. However, doing so is a standard and wise business practice for gold miners.

    Is there a direct and never-changing correlation with Codelco’s copper production and it’s by-product silver production? CONTINUED IN PART 2

  25. PART 2

    When we go down the list of copper producers below the top twenty, there are undoubtedly many smaller producers which, whether they are described as a “copper producer” with by-products, or as a silver or gold producer with significant copper by-product, they may be more sensitive to market price changes. Not only is it likely that they are more nimble than the giants, but they NEED to be so, to survive. So in copper down-markets they might need to lower production faster and more severely. I don’t know that it is of benefit for us to know the percent changes in silver production at each individual company, but it would be helpful to determine whether the silver production change is similar OVERALL in smaller companies as with the giants.

    Only then can we rather accurately estimate what the lessened worldwide copper production indicates for silver production.

    Over the years I’ve seen quotes from analysts stating that 55% of silver production is as by-product of base metal mining. Other analysts state 60%, 65%, and 70%. And I’ve never seen an article or report that addresses the ideas I’ve laid out here. If anyone has done substantial research on these ideas, they haven’t been willing to make their findings public.

    Further, it is my belief that silver produced as a by-product of gold mining is likely to not be significantly affected by changes in the gold / silver ratio (GSR)

    Copper and silver can be thought of as “siblings,” here, given their close relationship in both production and industrial demand.

    Tangent to all that…. I find it interesting that China is purportedly interested in using silver in much of it’s heavy electrical needs. If the price of silver increases greatly, copper will be a suitable substitute in some applications. And conversely, industrial silver use puts a floor under the price of silver. As the price of silver gets cheap, the cost of silver wiring, along with it’s lighter weight visavis a more massive copper cable make silver a viable contender.

    Charley Z

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The Usher Ministry is one of the busiest  ministries in our parish. Ushers arrive early before Mass to open the church's doors and give a warm welcome to the parishioners. They assist in seating people, invite volunteers to present offertory gifts, take up the collection, serve as a guide to facilitate the flow of communion, and distribute bulletins and other materials at the end of Mass. Dedication is needed in this ministry because duties start before Mass and continue throughout the entire service until the last parishioner has left.  This ministry is open to all nationalities.  For inquiries please call Lorenda Rafanan Ushers Coordinator at 91079805 or

Usher Ministry

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If you arrive early, please occupy the front seats. Our advice to late-comers and to those who plan to leave before the end of the Mass is to please approach the ushers at the back of the church (they all wear ID tags). They are always happy to assist you in finding a seat quickly, and this way we can avoid disturbances and disruptions to the celebrant and other parishioners. The same goes for parishioners with babies and small children.

St. Anne's Church is a safe church  with many side doors and plenty of exits in case of  emergency. Thank you very much for your cooperation. For queries please contact Lorenda Rafanan at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

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Ushers: Call for Volunteers

Serving the church is serving God.  It is not yet Service Sunday, but, like the other ministries, the Usher Ministry is also in need of more volunteers-- not only on Sunday but also for the Saturday 6:00PM Mass.  At that Mass, we are in need of a person who will organize parishioners to participate in the offering and the collection.

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The Ridiculous And The Sublime: The Surreal Art of Naoto Hattori

Naoto Hattori was born in 1975 in Yokohama, Japan. Raised as a child in the Japanese traditional arts and culture, he plunged into modern pop culture as a teenager, becoming enthralled in board sports  like surfing and skateboarding, street art and graffiti. He studied graphic design in Tokyo, before moving to New York to study at the School of Visual Arts in 2000. He currently lives and works in New York City.

A mass of influences, especially early surrealist legends Giuseppe Arcimboldo, Hieronymus Bosch and Salvador Dali, Hattori’s work show an astonishing range, from sublime portraits of robotic-like women to bizarre landscapes populated by creatures straight out of a nightmare. His Japanese influences are evident in his penchant for kawaii (Japanese for cute) sensibilities.

Inspired by Buddhist philosophy and proverbs, Hattori’s works often deal with the inner workings of the mind and eyes and heads (both human and animal) are the focal point. The chaos that often runs rampant inside a creative brain is visualized as geometric shapes and biomorphic masses.

Not surprisingly, Hattori has this to say about his singular art and vision: “My vision is like a dream, whether it’s a sweet dream, a nightmare, or just a trippy dream. I try to see what’s really going on in my mind, and that’s a practice to increase my awareness in stream-of-consciousness creativity. I try not to label or think about what something is supposed to be, I just take it in as it is and paint whatever I see in my mind with no compromise. That way, I create my own vision.”

Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the dark yet inspired dreamscapes of Naoto Hattori.

Check out Naoto Hattori’s website to see a full range of his astonishing work.

About Stephen Kelly Creative

Hi, I'm Stephen Kelly, a writer, editor, photographer and graphic designer living in beautiful San Francisco, CA, USA. Amongst the things I love are writing, photography, movies, music, fitness, travel, Batman, all things Australian, food and fun, all of which I hope to reflect in this here blog. Welcome aboard ... now let's get busy!
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26 Responses to The Ridiculous And The Sublime: The Surreal Art of Naoto Hattori

  1. So much here seems so disembodied, even when there are “bodies” there! The overwhelming focus on heads and busts, for example, far outstrips the full-size figures.

    • HI Victoria … I love his perspective, the point of view he pushes the viewer into seeing. i’m thinking that his preoccupation with the workings of the inner mind is responsible for the focus heads and busts. perhaps the disembodiment of his work is a statement on how impersonal life in these modern times can be. really, really interesting stuff!

  2. petit4chocolatier says:

    Stephen, I have never seen his art before! I am so blown away of how each piece is something so different and astonishing! I did pick many favorites!!

    I hope you don’t mind that I reblog your link on my reblog page?

    • Hi Judy … by all means!!! I’m all about sharing amazing art, and this stuff certainly fits that bill. I personally find his work mesmerizing; like you, I have many favorites. Glad you like this very cool art!

  3. ideflex says:

    Once again, you are providing me with a “new” artist to follow – fantabulous stuff!

  4. kalabalu says:

    The expression in eyes and the closed eyes , have an altogether mystic effect..of looking or blinding ..very strong expressions.

  5. Another fascinating artist you’ve featured here, Stephen. Amazing and bizarre, and actually quite beautiful in many cases. Thanks for sharing!

  6. Once more…… amazing!!!!

  7. Pat Bailey says:

    This is scary. My first thought was that I am very glad that I don’t have to live with his mind – that some very weird stuff goes on in there. Then I began to identify with pictures – and thinking – Yes, that’s me. By allowing himself to be aware of what is happening in his mind, he is capturing our shared human experiences – plus adding a few of his own unique ones. Thanks for another good post.

    • Hi there Pat. It makes me really happy to read your thought processes abut how you came to identify with some of Hattori’s work. I really like he explores the mind and the subconscious to find the themes of his work. A lot of it looks like the stuff of really weird dreams, and I’m not ready to wake up yet. Glad you found his work as intriguing as I do!

  8. ilargia64 says:

    Hi Stephen!!!! Wow..Incredible! It is true: Surrealism´s influence is there..For instance: to me, it is easy to see Dali on “Meet the Knowledge”…Even Magritte on “Mind Creating”..
    I think his women are beautiful…I like very much “Sentimental”..
    Thanks for sharing…Again!
    Have a nice weekend!

    • Hi Ilargia! Exactly … he learned and is influenced by the best of the surrealist masters. ‘Soul Streaming’ pays a huge debt of influence to Dali as well. Google Giuseppe Arcimboldo … Hattori is really influenced by that famous 15th century surrealist.

  9. Paula says:

    Was it a good idea for me to look at these dreamscapes just before going to sleep? 😉 Thank you for showing us his works :O

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Run Lola Run
87 MIN
Lola's boyfriend is an errand boy for a local criminal, and has been given a simple job to do as a test. He only needs to deliver some smuggled goods and return with the payment, but he accidentally leaves the bag with the money on the subway. He calls Lola in a panic -- he must come up with the money within 20 minutes. The film plays out various possible scenarios: Lola dies trying to save her feckless lover from the cops, Lola robs a bank, Lola wins the money gambling....
Director Tom Tykwer


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Iowa Habitat Loss and Disappearing Wildlife -- Iowa Environmental Issues Series

Iowa Association of Naturalists
This publication discusses habitats in Iowa, including woodland, prairies, and wetland and streams. It also provides information on periods of rampant habitat and wildlife loss and laws that protect habitat and wildlife in Iowa.

Pages / Length: 24
Publication Date: 09/1998

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Norm Soap Pump

Pure in design and function, the Norm Soap Pump is a clever bathroom object that addresses the real-life needs of its users while remaining effortlessly elegant. Featuring clean lines and a rounded base, the the soap dispenser is designed to be easy to clean, easy to use, and easy to refill when empty. Soap is dispensed with a simple touch of the brushed steel lid. Designed by Copenhagen-based Norm Architects, the Norm Soap Pump is part of the Norm Bath collection. The pieces in this collection share a similar shape and materiality resulting in a cohesive and harmonious range of products for the bathroom. Available in black or white, the container brings a touch of modern Scandinavian design to any bathroom.
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Saturday, September 13, 2014

Dear String Project family, The fall semester is off and running! This Saturday, classes will begin at 9:00; the Saturday schedule is attached. You will see something called “T&R” happening at 9:00- this class is only for students that are

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CONVOCATION_SCHEDULE_FALL2014 Dear String Project Family, We hope you enjoyed a restful and happy summer. We are excited to begin another String Project year this coming Saturday, September 6th. Our fall Convocation will start at 9:00am in Bates Recital Hall at

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Tag Archive | tawheed

Death and Wordly Life

I read these as a reminder to myself (as I need many) but I thought I would share. Reading how the pious of the past thought of and perceived death is very eye opening and admirable.. I say admirable because surely, those who are always mindful of death are on a road to success in the hereafter. May we all attain great success in the Hereafter and have Jannah as our home of settlement. AMEEN.

بِسْــــــــــــــــــمِ اﷲِالرَّحْمَنِ اارَّحِيم

Al-Hasan said: “In the life of this world the believer is like a captive, doing his best to free himself, and not feeling any security until he meets the All-Mighty Allah.”
Shumail Ibn `Ajlan said: “Whoever considers death before his eyes, does not bother whether he lives in luxury or in hardship.”

Dawood, alayhi salam:

“I weep before the day of weeping. I weep before it is too late to weep.”

(at-Takhwif, p.164)

Abu Haazim Salamah Ibn Dinar:

“Look at every act that you would hate to die while commenting, and then abandon it.”

(Al-Musannaf AbdiRazzaaq, 7/194)

“Make your grave your treasury, which you fill with as much good works as you can. When you end up in it, you will surely be pleased with what it has kept for you.”

(Az-Zuhd, by al-Baihaqi, p. 229)

‘ Live as long as you want, but you must die;

Love whatever you want, but you will become separated from it;

And do what you want, but you will be repaid for it’- Imam Ghazali (ra)

Wahb ibn Munabbih said: ”Whoever claims to be smart, but does not concentrate on the Hereafter, is lying”.
When Salman was dying, he wept and the people asked: “Why do you weep?” You are the Companion of the Prophet. He replied: “I don’t weep desiring this life or regretting departure therefrom, but Allah’s Messenger has commanded us and we disobeyed him.” He said that: “The man from among us should have provisions in this life just like that of a traveller, only enough for his journey.”
Mutarrif bin Abdullah said, “If I knew when my life would end, I fear that I would lose my mind. Allah has granted His slaves the favour of forgetting death, otherwise, they would not enjoy life or erect marketplaces. (out of fear of it). ”

It is reported that the night before he was martyred, Husayn bin ‘Ali bin Abi Talib رضي الله عنهماsaid the following words:

أُوفِي لَكَ يَا دَهْرُ مِنْ خَلِيلِيكَمْ لَكَ بِيإِشْرَاقِي وَأَصِيلِيمِنْ صَاحِبٍ أَوْ طَالَبٍ كَفِيلِيوَالدَهْرُ لَا يَتْرُكُ بِالْبَدِيلِيإِنٌمَا الْأَمْرُإِلَى الْجَلِيلِيوَكُلُ حَيْئٍ مِثْلُ الْسَبِيلِي

“O’ Time! What an awful friend you are! For all those who have pursued you, you have killed them by day and night And you have always attained your target, And the time does not leave replacement for it,Verily all matters will go back to the Sublime One, And every person who is living will walk my path.”

“Glad tidings to the one who leaves the dunya before it leaves him, prepares for his grave before he enters it, and pleases his Lord before he meets Him.”

[Yahya ibn Muadh]

‘Uthman ibn ‘Affan (radiAllahu anhu) said,”Worrying about the dunya is a darkness in the heart, while worrying about the akhirah is a light in the heart.”

It is reported that Al-Hasan Al-Basrī – Allāh have mercy on him – once said during the funeral of a man:

May Allāh have mercy on the man who works for the likes of this day; for today you are able to do what these brothers of yours, the residents of these graves, cannot do. So make full use of your health and free time before the day of distress and accounts comes upon you.

Ibn Abī Al-Dunyā, Dhamm Al-Dunyā article 53.

‘Amr Ibn Abdullah (radiy Allah hu anhu) said:

“The life of this world and the Hereafter, in the heart of a person, are like the

two scales of a balance, when the one becomes heavier the

other becomes lighter.”

Abdullah Ibn Al-Mubarak said: “O man! Prepare yourself for the Hereafter, obey Allah to the extent of your need for Him and anger Him to the extent of your patience in Hell.”

A man wrote to a brother: “Brother, you think that you are a permanent resident in this life, whereas you are in a continuing journey in which you are driven rapidly. Death is moving towards you, and life is being rolled up behind you. What has gone of your life-span will never return to you.”


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English Improv Comedy

terje brevik Impro Show Teater
Lillesalen Kjøp billett (50 / 30)

IMPRO NEUF INTERNATIONAL is proud to present Oslo’s first weekly improv comedy shows in English. Hosted by The Improv Speakeasy, we bring fresh pickings of the city’s talents onto the limelight. It’s a different team every Wednesday!

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*Join our fun community Impro Neuf International for more English improv and FREE workshops!


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Mathematics Project Based & Game Based Learning vs. Traditional Repetition Learning - Dissertation Example

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Mathematics Project Based & Game Based Learning vs. Traditional Repetition Learning

Bouris, Creel and Storz (2004) state that the game based approach is an innovative approach of teaching Mathematics. It involves the use of games and technology. The method entails both simple tasks and difficult tasks, which are done individually or in groups. Traditionally, people learned mathematics through memorization of mathematical concepts as teachers demonstrated procedures in class. After the lesson, a teacher would give students homework based on the concept covered in class. This mode of learning advocates memorization of Mathematical concepts by the students (Bouris, Creel and Storz, 2004). Certainly, math skills required for students to function effectively in the 20th century are completely different than present skills requirement, hence the need to change the way mathematics as a subject is taught. Presently, there is an ongoing debate as to the best way to effectively teach mathematics and whether the traditional method is still effective. The present study will seek to compare Project- Based Learning (PBL) and Game-Based Learning (GBL) with the Traditional Repetitive Learning (TRL) to determine the most effective method of teaching mathematics. Significance of the Study Following increased pressure by the United States Department of Education, as well as the state of Tennessee Department of Education on mathematics teachers to enhance students’ mastery of mathematics as a key subject; teachers are increasingly adjusting their teaching methods to help improve students understanding of the subject. However, to some mathematics educators, the focus of academic achievement never goes beyond classroom and quizzes given to students. This notion has created an environment that continues to bar students from appreciating the applicability of mathematics to real-world problems (Afari et al., 2013). Even though continuous research has been done on teaching mathematics, little has been done on the effective methods of teaching the subject. Previous researchers have tried to prove and provide evidence that mathematics is a critical subject for societal development while others sought to establish students’ performance in this subject. For instance, in 2012, the US Department of Education found that 8th grade students from the US were ranked 24th out of 29 countries in mathematics literacy. This was a clear indication that there was a big problem in the way mathematics as a subject was taught. Compared with other students from countries where PBL and GBL teaching methods had already been implemented, the US students’ scores were found to be low. Such low test scores and considering the impact of using different approaches when teaching mathematics, led to this study that seeks to establish the effectiveness of PBL, GBL and TRL approaches of teaching mathematics. This study will be conducted at Pine Elementary School which has a total population of 747 students. Departing from other previous researches that sought to compare performance in mathematics relative to other subjects, this study will focus on effective teaching approaches that can enhance students’ ...Show more

Topic: Teaching Mathematics using Project Based and Game Based Learning vs. Traditional Repetition Learning William Bilbrey Contents Introduction / Significance of the Study 3 Introduction 3 Significance of the Study 3 Research Questions 7 Hypotheses 8 Procedure 8 Population/ Sample 9 Population 9 Sample 9 Research Design 9 Data Collection 9 Data Analysis 10 Findings 10 Conclusion 15 Recommendations 16 References 17 Introduction / Significance of the Study Introduction Project based approach puts mathematics in a meaningful context, where the students acquire knowledge through practice and not working out a group of items from the textbook (Boaler, 2001)…
Author : julescrona
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Never a good day to go to a funeral. No one is coming back after months of resting an injury. That’s all she wrote man. Profound, huh? I’m not so I’m not going to pretend. Enjoy your time here. I’ll feel a little bit better after mocking the WWE for about three hours. Let’s roll.

Vince McMahon starts the show. He’s kind of got a Joker like suit on. Paul Heyman comes dressed for a fight. I love the people in the front row clapping about the Romo joke. Brock Lesnar shows up again. HHH shows up with a buzz cut. You need to have HHH win and he does. Predictable stuff.

Dolph Ziggler is taking on Ryback. Big E Langston & AJ Lee are at ring side. I’ve been on the phone the whole segment. It has not changed how much I taped. Big E comes into play. It doesn’t matter though. Loss 1 million for Ziggler.

CM Punk tells us tonight is about him. I’m even starting to tune out him. Donald Trump is the newest inductee into the WWE Hall of Fame.

I’m off the phone but completely uninterested in Mark Henry vs the Great Khali XX. We get it, Henry can World’s Strongest Slam Khali. The Marine III looks terrible. If that’s the best you can do, stop trying.

Miz TV is next with Zeb Colter & Jack Swagger and Alberto Del Rio & Ricardo Rodriguez. It goes as expected. I was explaining Swagger to Baby Momma Drama so I missed the specifics. Whatever.

Randy Orton takes on Antonio Cesaro. Let’s see if I can type more than two sentences about it. RKO out of nowhere because Orton needs to beat an up and comer just to keep his quasi-main event status. He’s got no direction right now. Brad Maddox & Vickie Guerrero talk Daniel Bryan & Kane into a match with the Prime Time Players. Not their best work. Team Brickie does have a nice ring to it. This JBL/John Cena commercial is pretty funny. They have the perfect people in the roles.

Sheamus is out to give us his Oscar snubs. Thanks for helping to get us some extra hits for mentions of unrelated material. Oh, it’s funny man Sheamus plugging the movie Barrett is in for five seconds. This is bombing. Wade Barrett is here to save us. He did well but didn’t blow me away.

Damien Sandow gets to watch his best buddy Cody Rhodes lose to a returning R Truth. He looked terrible. Truth was blown up five seconds into that one. Sandow gets tossed after a sneak attack. We get another Zeb & Swagger video. Haven’t they gotten enough time already?

For some reason, Kane lets Daniel Bryan start the match. Kane buries the Prime Time Players once and for all with a choke slam. Nice knowing you Titus O’Neil & Darren Young. You’ll get your own so called eulogy soon.

The Shield mosey on down to the ring for another promo. No peace until their is justice. Dean Ambrose gets the first chair. Roman Reigns is second. Bone dust. Everything is coming up death today. Seth Rollins solved the John Cena problem. Sheamus comes out to the ramp for a fight. Randy Orton RKO’s Rollins. They’re turning the tables on the Shield. I guess we’re seeing another WM match forming. Sheamus, Orton & the Shield mentioned Chris Jericho. I heard him slated for Ziggler who is a giant question mark. I’m done complaining on his behalf.

The Miz gets to lose to Jack Swagger. At least the Miz took JBL’s advice and took off the shoulder wrap. Everything is completely different after his six months off for Swagger except for his move set. They are letting Miz take a beating in this one. Better than a squash match. Swagger wins with the Patriot Lock. Am I wrong in thinking they said Act in previous weeks?

I FF thru a lot of garbage to get to a standard John Cena promo. Or at least that’s what I’m assuming. He started goofy, went serious then kind of went weird. Our time is now? Huh?

I play catch up in the time department for the start of the main event. It just dawned on me that Dallas, if memory serves, is usually one of the better crowds. They are rocking during this match but they haven’t made much of an impression on me. Did Mitchell Cool just call CM Punk a veteran? Yes he did. Punk is in control after the break though. Electric chair by Cena. I keep wondering if there is a surprise at the end of this match. I think Punk weasels his way into a three way main event at Wrestlemania. Punk ducks the second shoulder block. Smart move. Has he done that before? Another commercial break. About 15 minutes behind live. Punk gets the Anaconda Vice on. Cena rolls him into a pin. These guys put on a good show. Glad they’re giving it plenty of time. STF into an Anaconda Vice. Fun reverses. Thanks for proving my point like instantly guys. A crowd of 17+ thousand? Big one. It will not be close to capacity at Raw in April. What a weird sequence with the high knee into the Attitude Adjustment. I tape until 11:10. Cena does the super man barely get in the ring. Blech. Cena kicks out of a GTS. Okay, Cool did call a cross face an STF earlier. I doubted myself for some reason. Punk nails a pile driver but Super Cena kicks out. Punk misses the top rope elbow. Another Attitude Adjustment for the win. Glad it was clean. Great match aside from the almost count out. -Kevin

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Health Information Management (HIM) students can begin their career by earning a certificate in coding. Along with an American Health Information Management Association (AHIMA) credential, the medical coding certificate prepares you for jobs in all types of medical facilities, inpatient and outpatient, and other industry-related positions such as insurance companies and government agencies.

Health information technology (HIT) professionals with an associate degree pursue registration through the AHIMA as registered health information technicians (RHIT). RHITs are responsible for the quality of patient health information in acute care hospitals, physician offices, and other outpatient facilities.

Students in the on-campus and online Health Information Management degree program study diagnosis and procedure coding, health information management, healthcare reimbursement, legal aspects of health information and health information technology.

The Health Information Management (HIM) program includes courses in anatomy and physiology, pathophysiology with pharmacology, medical terminology, ICD-9-CM and ICD-9-CM coding, ICD-10-PCS coding, CPT and HCPCS coding, as well as reimbursement methodologies. Legal aspects of HIM are covered, as well as information technology and health information management.

Sullivan University’s HIM program promotes student success by focusing on engagement between faculty and student, teaching with primary resources, and encouraging students to use critical thinking to solve problems.

103 Credit Hours
Length: 18 months
Time length for program completion will vary depending upon the number of courses taken per term, developmental courses when required, transfer credit accepted, lack of continuous enrollment, etc.

CourseTitlesCredit Hours
Total Credit Hours186
Associate Degree Credit103
COM 214Public Speaking4
ENG 102Composition II4
HIM 320Clinical Classification Systems Management5
HIM 330Healthcare Statistics and Research4
HIM 340Healthcare Reimbursement II4
HIM 360Legal Aspects of Healthcare Information III4
HIM 370Health Information Management II4
HIM 420Healthcare Information Systems4
HIM 430Healthcare Information Technology IV4
HIM 440Applied Pathophysiology and Pharmacology5
HIM 450Applied Healthcare Management4
HIM 480Health Information Management Project5
HIM 490Health Information Management Practicum8
HST 274American Government4
MTH 201College Algebra4
MGT 114Business Organization and Management4
MGT 274Basic Supervision4
MGT 304Principles of Management4
PHL 464Ethics4

What are some websites with more information on the health information management career field?

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Life is like water — you panic, you sink.

[An email to a dear friend.]

From: AimeeLovesYou
Date: May 12, 2008 6:36 PM
Subject: Batter up!

All I can say is… life is like water, you panic, you sink. You must Swim (put in some good work, stay relaxed, but very focused), Tread (stay where you are with some effort, notice what is going on around you), or Float (let go and see where the water takes you). No matter how intense the waters get, no matter how crazy, you are able to relax and float. You must trust that the waters will carry you. But, they will only do that if you let them. Relax and allow them to carry you. Become One with them. They are you. (You are water.) Do not be afraid. Keep going and don’t look back. Trust that there is a bigger picture that is beautiful and perfect. Sometimes we can’t see it and what we see being created is looking really fucked up! We only see the smaller picture that has a ‘threatened little me’ in it. We must identify with the big picture that has the big universal god-self in it. The little me is temporary. It will pass. The god-self remains powerful and self-sufficient, forever.

Hang in there. I know you got it. Nobody ‘goes to bat’ in a tough situation better than you. Nobody. I mean that.

Call if you need an ear.

Love you,

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Answers to your questions

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hot issues

Yes. A game idea can be submitted through our ‘resurrection’ process. Game creators have the ability to modify and improve their idea to be submitted in a later round.

To resurrect an old game idea on the BrightLocker platform:

  • Simply go to your account page by selecting your account avatar in the upper right hand corner

  • Click on the "Ideas" tab, and select your "Dead" idea that you would like to rebirth

  • Navigate to the "Extra Services" tab on that game idea, and you should see an option to buy a "Resurrection Coin" for some BrightLocker gold. Simply purchase the option, and you will then be able to edit everything as if it were a new game idea

  • Just click "I'm Ready" after you've made your desired changes to submit it for the next round of voting

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In-silico screening with machine learning model

The machine learning model extension is part of the CDD Visualization subscription, and requires activation by CDD support. Please contact us to learn how to try it for 30 days, or to subscribe to CDD Visualization.

Creating a model calls for two sets of molecules to train the model: the "good" molecules, and a previously screened training set.  CDD Vault uses FCFP6 structural fingerprints to build a Bayesian statistical model.  The model will then generate a score that can be used to rank compounds that have not been screened yet. The machine learning model is stored as a special type of protocol (category = Machine-Learning model), and provides a ROC plot so you can gauge its effectiveness. Each molecule receives a relative score, applicability number, and maximum similarity number.

The model will automatically score all compounds in the project you select while creating it. You can subsequently share it with other projects to score more molecules.

The models feature will be evolving significantly in the future. We'd love to hear what you want to be able to do with Machine-Learning models, to help guide that evolution.

If you prefer to watch a short demonstration on how to build a model, you can watch the following short video clip on our CDD Academy Youtube channel:

FCFP6 fingerprints

Bayesian Model

Create a new model

Baseline training set

"Good" molecules set

Analyze results

ROC curves

Maximum Similarity

Apply model to untested compounds

Machine-Learning is a computation technique of relating a molecular property to the underlying structure. Machine learning methods generally involves three broad steps: Firstly, the representation of a molecule in a way suitable for computerized treatment, often referred to as the choice of a descriptor (FCFP6 fingerprint). Secondly, the choice of the variable one attempts to model, often called the endpoint – which can be any molecular property that can be experimentally measured. Frequently used endpoints (since they are relevant in drug discovery practice) are solubility and logP as physicochemical properties, or bioactivity as a biological measurement variable (CDD protocol data). Thirdly, descriptors (input variables) and endpoints (output variables) need to be connected by means of one of a variety of available model generation methods (Bayesian model). From Bender, Molecular Similarity Primer

The following descriptors, and model are implemented by CDD. The end-point selection is performed by you, the experimenter, while building a model.

FCFP6 fingerprints

FCFP6 fingerprints are described in Rogers and Hahn 2010.

The chemical structure is examined for all subgraphs with a diameter of up to size 6 (i.e. start with a single node, and do 3 breadth-first iterations). Each of these graphs is assigned a hash code based on the properties of the atom, the bonds, and where applicable, chirality. These hash codes are put through several redundancy elimination steps, and eventually converted into a list of 32-bit integers. A druglike molecule typically has from dozens to hundreds of these unique hashcodes. Molecules that are structurally very similar tend to share a large number of these indices in common, and so are often compared using the Tanimoto coefficient. For ECFP-class fingerprints, the atom properties are somewhat literal (e.g. atomic number, charge, hydrogen count, etc.), whereas for the FCFP-class (“F” stands for functional) the atom characteristics are swapped out for properties that relate to ligand binding (e.g. hydrogen donor/acceptor, polarity, aromaticity, etc.) which means that different atoms often start with the same value (e.g. -OH and -NH might be considered the same).

Bayesian Model

A Naïve Bayesian model is optimized for sparse datasets, implemented as described in Xia et al. 2004.

The learned models are created with a straightforward learn-by-example paradigm: give it a set of hit compounds (the “good” samples), and the system learns to distinguish them from other baseline data. The learning process generates a large set of Boolean features from the input FCFP6 fingerprints, then collects the frequency of occurrence of each feature in the “good” subset and in all data samples. To apply the model to a particular compound, the features of the compound are generated, and a weight is calculated for each feature using a Laplacian-adjusted probability estimate. The model reports a score, which is calculated by normalizing the probability, taking the natural log and summing the results. This score is a relative predictor of the likelihood of that sample being from the “good” subset: the higher the score, the higher the likelihood. Once trained, the model can be applied to a set of compounds whose activity is unknown, and provides a score whose value gives a prediction of the likelihood that the molecule will be a hit in the modeled protocol.

Create a new model

Please contact us to activate the machine learning extension in your CDD Vault.

Once activated, you will notice a new "Build model" icon in the search results toolbar after a search is performed.

The model is built on two collections of molecules: The "good" molecules- the ones you'd like the model to consider as positives, and the "baseline" molecules, which are a large number of other types of molecules. Good molecules and baseline molecules do not necessarily mean active or inactive molecules in an assay, but the good set should include structures you wish to train the model to recognize amongst a large set of different kinds of structures represented by the baseline set.

"Training set baseline" molecules

Training set baseline molecules may come from the same protocol as the "good" set, a different protocol in your project, or a protocol in a public data-set. All of the molecules in the selected protocol will become part of the training baseline. This set should ideally contain many different kinds of molecules, including some of the "good" ones.

"Good" molecules

When you perform a search, all of the molecules in the search results will be considered part of the "good" set by default. For example, you can perform a search for hits of your secondary assay with IC50<10uM. You can also cherry-pick the good molecules from the search results by using the selection tool on the left of every structure: molecules are all selected by default, and you can click on the check-box to unselect it.

 Fill in the model form

Your model will also need a name, and you will need to select a project where this model will be created.

Project selection is important, because once the model is created, all of the molecules in this project will automatically be scored. When the model is saved, you will see a green status bar with a hyperlinked model name. Click on the link to analyze results.

Analyze results

The model is created as a special kind of protocol in the project you selected. The new protocol is created automatically when you save a model. The protocol will not be editable, and will have a "Machine-Learning model" category, 3 readout definitions, and will have one automatically created run for scoring all molecules in the selected project.

ROC Curve

ROC curves are graphic representations of the relationship existing between the sensitivity and the specificity of a statistical test. It is generated by plotting the fraction of true positives (sensitivity) out of the total actual positives versus the fraction of false positives out of the total actual negatives (specificity). Gauge the effectiveness of the model by examining the curve: the best possible prediction method would yield a point in the upper left corner or coordinate (0,1) of the ROC space, representing 100% sensitivity (no false negatives) and 100% specificity (no false positives). The diagonal line represents random guessing. Points above the diagonal represent good classification results (better than random), points below the line poor results (worse than random).

Right below the ROC curve, you can review the molecule sets that went into model creation.

Scoring of molecules

The protocol also contains readout definitions to store predicted ranking of molecules that have not been screened yet. Recall that as a model is created, it is assigned to a particular project. The model is applied to every molecule belonging to that project, and the results can be seen as a run of the machine learning model protocol. Click on the magnifying glass to view the results.

This score is a relative predictor of the likelihood of the molecule being a true positive according to the model: the higher the score, the higher the likelihood. To get an idea of the range of scores, sort the score column by clicking on the header in the search results table. Click again to sort from highest number to lowest. Now that you've got an idea of the range of possible scores, you can filter the molecules to show only high values.

This is the fraction of structural features shared with the training set of molecules.

Maximum Similarity

Maximum Tanimoto/Jaccard similarity to any of the "good" molecules in the training set. This value is independent of the Bayesian model, and provides a way for you to perform a similarity search using all active compounds at once.

Apply model to untested compounds

To apply the model to other untested molecules in another project in your CDD Vault, all you need to do is share the protocol with that project. The underlying training set data used in the creation of the model will not be disclosed to the destination project if sharing permissions do not allow it. Nevertheless, all of the molecules belonging to the destination project will be automatically scored, and a new run with results will be added to the model protocol. The process may take several minutes, depending on the number of molecules to score, but when the yellow status bar at the top of the page disappears, all of the molecules will have been scored.

Look on the "Run data" tab of the model protocol, and click the magnifying glass icon as before.

The current version of the modeling functionality does not automatically score all new compounds which are added to a project after the model was last applied. To apply the model to new molecules, you will need to manually un-share and re-share the model with the current project. Here are the general steps:

  1. Make sure the model is shared with more than one project. You risk deleting the entire model if it's only shared with the one project you're interested in- you will delete this sharing in step 2.
  2. Once the model is shared with several projects, go to the Run data tab of the model protocol, and delete the old run for your project. To do so, click on the Run date, go to the Run Details tab, and "Delete this run" in the side-bar.
  3. Back on the Protocol Details form - un-share the model with your project of interest. Click "Manage project access" in the side-bar, and remove access from the project.
  4. Add back the access to this project you just removed in step 3. This will cause the model to run against all the compounds in the project, and a new run of the modeling protocol to be created from scratch.

The models feature will be evolving significantly in the future. We'd love to hear what you want to be able to do with machine learning models, to help guide that evolution.


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From, simply place your cursor on the desired file or folder. The "abc|" icon will appear next to the file/folder name; click the icon and you will be placed in edit mode. Type in a new name, then click anywhere outside of the edit area to complete the change.

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The Good Thing about the Apple Battery-Gate

The built-in, consumable battery on smartphones has always bothered me.

Batteries are consumables and computer hardware doesn’t have to be. The good thing about Apple’s battery fiasco is this may be the straw that results with owner-replaceable batteries becoming standard.

The problem is batteries are consumables, and computers are not. The manufacturers are effectively making disposable computers. I use the original Google Nexus 7 tablet (2012) as my alarm clock. It has a clock app that provides better features than most alarm clocks, but is confined to its dock. There’s plenty more potential uses cases for old devices if they were mobile.

The folks that bought the first generation iPhone were quick to buy the 2nd generation (and so on). This worked well because there was a line of family members and friends that wanted the older phone. Today, there’s no line. Everyone has a decent phone. Also, my old phone is still largely capable. I’d even say better than many phones on the market today, but it’s battery is shot.

I considered just replacing the battery on my old phone through aftermarket services. It’s not really a viable option for several reasons:

  1. The vendors want me to mail it in for service. 1-2 weeks without the phone is too long.
  2. The costs vary around $75. Seems silly to throw that much at a 2 year old phone.
  3. It’s really hard to buy quality batteries. Amazon appears to be full of counterfeit batteries, and performance varies wildly (based on comments).

You can Thank Steve Jobs

The non replaceable battery was a Jobs innovation. Like most battery-powered devices, Cell phones had replaceable batteries prior to the iPhone. Built-in obsolescence has always been a core tenet for Jobs, but it was a major divergence for the world. Every product has its faults, and the iPhone was so good we accepted the battery. Remember, the problem is how batteries age, there’s no problem when they are new.

Plus, Jobs could sell anything. Jobs sold the non-replaceable battery as a feature. He explained that in order to make room for “larger” batteries, he had to eliminate the baggage that came with replaceable batteries (such as compartments. covers, safe casings). At first, the Android camp poked fun at this, but then the realized:

  1. Built-in obsolescence drives sales.
  2. Few people were buying spare batteries on Android units that did have replaceable batteries.

So, the Android camp jumped on the same bandwagon. Today, there is not a single smartphone made (that I know of) that has a replaceable battery. Even worse, the concept has spread. My solar-powered Logitech keyboard I am using right now has a non replaceable battery. Same for my Kindle, my Nokia smart watch, and my Plantronics headphones. All of these devices will end up in the trash even though I have books as old as me, watches I worse in high school, and a pair of (wired) headphones I wore on my reel-to-reel. I still use the same HP 12C calculator I bought in 1987.

What’s Changed?

Everything above is old news. So, what’s changed?

  1. Smartphones have gone up in price. We are now paying over $1k for a premium phone. Such an investment should last longer, and premium phones should certainly last longer than non premium phones (they don’t).
  2. Studies predict that there will be 2.8 B smartphones in service by 2019. They are not longer a first world gadget.
  3. The tech curve is flattening. Tech obsolescence is no further than battery life.
  4. As Samsung demonstrated with its ill fated Note 7, lithium-ion batteries are dangerous. We should be able to remove/replace them.
  5. We are using are phones for more things faster than battery technology is progressing.
  6. We are buying/obtaining batteries anyway: separate battery chargers and mophi-like cases that change with each new model.

Battery Swaps Can Be Easy

I have a few remote controls that make changing batteries a stressful exercise. The cover on my DISH remote is my nemesis.

Not all batteries need covers. My old Motorola Star-Tac had a replaceable battery that was essentially the exterior of the phone. You can even have a small built-in Lion battery that prevents the phone from shutting down during a battery swap. Sure, that battery might wear-out, but with it just goes a feature, not the whole device.

Dave Michels